RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 11, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The cold front that swept across North Florida yesterday will continue to weaken and push through the Peninsula today bringing drier conditions nearly statewide in its wake.
- Isolated showers and a few rumbles of thunder this morning can be expected along the frontal boundary but will weaken and dissipate throughout the day (20-40% chance of rain).
- During the peak heating hours of the day, isolated to very widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms may develop along Treasure Coast before moving offshore and dissipating during the evening (15-25% chance of rain).
- Organized severe weather is not expected; however, any stronger thunderstorm activity that develops would be capable of producing lightning, locally gusty winds and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across North Florida, and low to middle 90s across Central and South Florida by the afternoon.
- Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, will reach the upper 90s and into triple digits (100-101) south of the I-4 corridor by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions can be expected from the I-75 corridor and throughout the interior Peninsula as relative humidity values by the late afternoon to fall near or below critical thresholds (low to middle 30%) and breezy wind gusts reach upwards of 20 mph at times.
- Lingering elevated surf of 2-4’ along North and East-Central Florida beaches will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday. May 10, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is tracking eastward along the I-10 corridor through the Big Bend this morning ahead of a frontal boundary associated with a low-pressure system.
- These strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to track eastward through the Suwannee Valley and Northern Peninsula this morning and through the afternoon (60-near 100% chance of rain).
- Some redevelopment and of showers and thunderstorms is occurring along the frontal boundary in the Panhandle and will move eastward with the frontal boundary.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist along and north of the I-10 corridor this evening before gradually dissipating through the overnight hours (30-60% chance of rain).
- Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible elsewhere through the state (5-40% chance of rain).
- There is an Enhanced Risk (level 3 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Northern Peninsula with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) extending through the Big Bend and south to Crystal River and Daytona Beach.
- Severe Thunderstorm Watches #229 and #230 are in effect across much of North Florida as damaging wind gusts (in excess 55-70 mph), a few brief tornadoes, isolated large hail (up to 1.5” diameter), and heavy downpours will continue to be possible.
- Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding (level 1 of 4) across much of North Florida Flooding and ponding of water is possible.
- Wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph across North and Central Florida outside of thunderstorms.
- Red Flag Warnings have been issued for several counties Northeast of Lake Okeechobee for this afternoon as near to below critical relative humidity values and breezy winds create critical fire weather conditions across Central and South Florida.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle, East Coast, and West-Central Coast.
- A Severe (G4) Geomagnetic Storm Watch (Space Weather) has been issued for Saturday as periods of strong to severe (G3-G4) geomagnetic storms are likely; isolated short-term effects on technology and infrastructure cannot be ruled out.
- Warm temperatures persist nearly statewide today and tonight with near-normal temperatures anticipated across North Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 9, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A low-pressure system moving across the Midwest U.S. will give way to multiple rounds of severe weather today and Friday.
- The first line of strong to severe thunderstorms is expected to move southward through North Florida this afternoon and evening (20-55% chance of rain), moving offshore overnight.
- The second round of strong to severe thunderstorms will begin to make its way into the Western Panhandle overnight and early Friday morning (20-55% chance of rain).
- Enhanced Risk for Severe Weather (level 3 of 5) along far Northern portions of Florida with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) across North Florida; damaging wind gusts (in excess of 50-70 mph), large hail, brief tornadoes, and heavy downpours are likely.
- Slight Risk for Flash Flooding (level 2 of 4) along far northern portions of the Florida Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) across much of North Florida; localized flooding and ponding of water over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas possible.
- Dry and mostly clear skies elsewhere (near 0-10% chance of rain).
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to upper 90s statewide; Heat indices approaching or reaching triple digits (97-101).
- Wind gusts near 20-30 mph at times across North Florida and along the East Coast.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle, East Coast, and West-Central Coast.
- Drought conditions have expanded on this week’s drought monitor update.
- Low temperatures in the 70s through the state and low 80s along the Keys.
- Localized areas of patchy to locally dense fog cannot be ruled out statewide overnight.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, May 8, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Reduced visibility can be expected this morning along the I-10 corridor and Suwannee Valley as dense fog and low clouds have developed.
- High pressure will dominate across the Sunshine State once again, bringing warm and dry conditions throughout the day.
- There is a limited chance for some isolated showers and rumbles of thunder to develop along the sea breeze boundaries late this afternoon and evening throughout interior portions of the Peninsula (10-20% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will climb well into the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state, with portions of Central Florida approaching the upper 90s.
- Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, by the early to mid-afternoon hours will reach the middle 90s statewide, with portions of the northeast and central Peninsula reaching the upper 90s and near triple digits.
- Any shower or possible thunderstorm activity that manages to develop will linger throughout the evening and early overnight hours before dissipating as they move towards the adjacent coastal waters (10-15% chance of rain).
- Patchy fog may develop early Thursday morning along the Suwannee Valley and northern I-75 corridor due to light winds and mostly clear skies.
- Southerly winds along the Panhandle continues to create onshore winds that will lead to a high risk for rip currents. A moderate risk extends along the Florida East Coast, with a locally high risk for Palm Beach County beaches.
- The Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates is forecast to fall below flood stage later this week as water levels continue to gradually decline.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
*Correction* Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 7th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Lingering dense fog and low clouds will continue to gradually dissipate and lift through the mid-morning hours along the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- High pressure will build over the Gulf of Mexico throughout the day allowing for mostly sunny and dry conditions through the afternoon hours.
- The Gulf and Atlantic sea breeze boundaries will move inland and collide with one another over the interior Peninsula late in the afternoon and this evening, allowing for isolated to widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms to develop (20-30% chance of rain).
- Organized severe thunderstorm activity is not expected; however, isolated locally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours of the day.
- High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s and middle 90s statewide, with coastal areas remaining a few degrees cooler with the help of the sea breeze.
- Temperatures across portions of the interior Panhandle and Central Florida will feel-like they are in the middle to near upper 90s by the early to middle afternoon hours.
- Calm winds and clear skies developing overnight and early Wednesday morning from the Panhandle to Nature Coast will allow for patchy to locally dense fog to develop.
- Persistent and breezy onshore winds along Panhandle and East Coast beaches will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches.
- Water levels along the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates continue to steadily decline and is forecast to fall below minor flood stage later this week.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
