RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 18, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms are already developing and tracking eastward through the Panhandle this morning.
- This line of showers and thunderstorms will continue to track eastward into the Big Bend and Northern Peninsula this morning and afternoon (60-95% chance of rain).
- Strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts (45-65 mph), instances of hail, isolated tornadoes, and heavy downpours will be possible.
- Additional storms should form along the Florida Atlantic Coast sea breeze this afternoon with an isolated severe threat possible (45-70% chance of rain).
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across much of North Florida today with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along the Nature Coast and East Coast.
- Flood Watches remain in effect along portions of the Florida Panhandle through this evening as instances of flooding and ponding of water will continue to be possible with additional heavy rainfall over already saturated grounds, urban areas, and low-lying/poor drainage areas today.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending across the Big Bend and into the Northern Peninsula.
- Heat Advisories issued for South Florida, the Keys, and the Central-East Coast this afternoon as heat indices reach 106-110-degrees; Heat indices of 97-105-degrees through the rest of the Peninsula this afternoon.
- Sensitive wildfire conditions will be possible over portions of the interior Peninsula this afternoon.
- River Flood Warnings issued for multiple Florida Panhandle rivers and waterway as minor flooding is occurring or forecast to occur.
- High risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle; Moderate risk along West Coast.
- Scattered showers will linger into the overnight and into Sunday along the Big Bend and Peninsula (30-75% chance of rain) while the rest of the state begins to dry out as high pressure builds back in along the Eastern U.S. (15-35% chance of rain).
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog will be possible across portions of the state overnight and early Sunday morning.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 17, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Multiple rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible today and into Saturday.
- First cluster of showers and thunderstorms continues to make its way through the Northern Peninsula this morning.
- New development is generally expected to develop later this afternoon and evening (40-80% chance of rain) into the early overnight hours (30-50% chance of rain) before dissipating.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather for the Panhandle and into the Western Big Bend with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) extending across the Big Bend, into the Suwannee Valley, and across the Nature Coast today.
- Damaging wind gusts (in excess of 45-65 mph), isolated large hail, an isolated brief tornado or two, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall will be possible.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding extending along the Western Panhandle and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) along the rest of the Panhandle today.
- A Flood Watch is in effect along the Western Panhandle as flooding and ponding water over already saturated grounds, low-lying/poor drainage areas, and urban areas will be possible.
- Breezy winds (20-30 mph gusts) could develop behind the first round of activity along the Florida Panhandle with gusts near 15-20 mph elsewhere.
- High temperatures in the middle 80s to low 90s across North Florida and low to middle 90s elsewhere this afternoon.
- Heat indices climbing near or into the triple digit (97-104) across the Peninsula.
- Heat Advisories have been issued for Miami-Dade County as heat indices are forecast to reach 103-107-degrees this afternoon.
- Sensitive wildfire conditions possible over areas that continue to see short-term rainfall deficits and ongoing drought conditions in Central Florida.
- River Flood Warning in effect for the Ochlocknee River near Concord as minor flooding is occurring.
- High risk for rip currents along the Florida Panhandle with a moderate risk along the West-Central coast.
- Low temperatures in the 70s to low 80s overnight.
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog possible overnight and early Saturday morning.
- A third line of strong to severe thunderstorms may begin to make its way into the Panhandle Saturday just before daybreak ahead of another frontal boundary associated with the low-pressure system.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday. May 16, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dry conditions return across much of the state today thanks to the brief return of higher pressure (near 0-15% chance of rain).
- The frontal boundary will sink slightly further southward this afternoon, producing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms across South Florida (40-70% chance of rain).
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along Southeast Florida as strong to severe thunderstorms producing damaging wind gusts (45-65 mph) and isolated instances of hail may be possible.
- Locally heavy downpours may give way to isolated instances of flooding and ponding of water along urban corridors.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat indices approaching or reaching triple digits (97-105) along the Keys and across South Florida into Central Florida.
- Wind gusts near 15-20 mph at times along the Peninsula and Keys.
- Sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions along I-4 corridor with locally sensitive wildfire conditions across North Florida; Additional fire starts cannot be ruled out from Lake Okeechobee to the Treasure Coast due to a chance for lightning storms.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle and West Coast.
- Showers and thunderstorms across South Florida will dissipate this evening as the frontal boundary stalls across Lake Okeechobee (near 0-35% chance of rain).
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms moving into the Western Panhandle overnight ahead of the next system (30-55% chance of rain).
- A few strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out early Friday morning.
- Low temperatures in the middle 60s to low 70s across North and Central Florida, middle to upper 70s across South Florida, and low 80s along the Keys.
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog possible over recently saturated grounds overnight and early Friday morning.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, May 15th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Additional showers and thunderstorms have begun to redevelop in North Florida along and ahead of a frontal boundary, while drier conditions filter in along the I-10 corridor (near 0-35% chance of rain).
- This shower and thunderstorm development can be expected through the morning and afternoon hours, with the highest rain chances along the Northern Peninsula and through the I-4 corridor to north of Lake Okeechobee (65-90% chance of rain).
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across Central Florida with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) stretching to south of I-10 and to south of Lake Okeechobee.
- Tornado Watch #243 in effect across portions of the Northern and Central Peninsula as a couple tornadoes, isolated damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated large hail (quarter to golf ball sized), frequent lightning, and heavy downpours will be possible today.
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of the Northern and Central Peninsula as instances of flooding and ponding of water will be possible in locally heavy downpours.
- High temperatures in the middle 80s to middle 90s statewide.
- Heat indices approaching and reaching triple digits (97-105) across South Florida and into Central Florida.
- Feels like temperatures approaching or reaching Heat Advisory criteria (105-108) are anticipated along the Florida Keys.
- Breezy winds across the Peninsula with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph at times.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents statewide.
- Conditions will begin to dry out overnight with only isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms lingering across the Central and Southern Peninsula (15-45% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the 60s across North Florida and 70s to low 80s elsewhere overnight.
- The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks for the 2024 hurricane season; Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic Basin.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 14, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms that developed across portions of North Florida this morning continue to track southeastward through the Peninsula this morning (50-85% chance of rain).
- Some residual showers and storms can be expected through the afternoon and evening hours across North and Central Florida.
- Showers and thunderstorms will redevelop along and ahead of a frontal boundary associated with the system, moving through the Peninsula this evening through Wednesday morning (45-75% chance of rain).
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Coastal Big Bend, Northern Peninsula, and south to Sarasota, Sebring, and Port St. Lucie with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) along the Florida Panhandle and south to just south of Lake Okeechobee.
- Tornado Watch #240 in effect across portions of the Northern Peninsula as scattered damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), a couple of tornadoes, and instances of hail remain possible.
- Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Big Bend and Northern Peninsula south to near the I-4 corridor with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending along the Panhandle as instances of flooding and ponding of water continue to be possible, especially over already saturated grounds, urban areas, and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Heat Indices will approach or reach triple digits (97-103) across much of the Peninsula and begin to near Heat Advisory criteria along the Keys (100-105).
- Wind Advisories are in effect along the Florida Panhandle as breezy winds with gusts upwards of 20-30 mph are anticipated statewide outside of thunderstorms.
- Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will continue to be possible this afternoon across interior Central Florida.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along nearly all Florida beaches.
- Rivers and waterways across North Florida have begun to see water level rises and minor flooding may be possible.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
