RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

085
AXNT20 KNHC 211021
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W and
continues southwestward to 09N24W, where it transitions to
the ITCZ to 09N35W to 08N42W and to 09N54W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 05N to 11N between the coast of Africa and
18W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm northwest of
the monsoon trough between 17W-20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Relatively weak high pressure that is anchored by 1019 mb high
center over northern Florida is over the eastern and central Gulf
portions. The associated gradient is generally allowing for light
to gentle winds over the NE Gulf with seas of 1 to 2 ft, however,
a tighter gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures
in Texas and northern Mexico is maintaining moderate to occasionally
fresh southeast to south winds across the majority of the central
and western Gulf waters along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

A trough extends from just east of northeast Texas southeastward
to near 26N90W. Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds, with
isolated, small showers are noted from 26N to 30N between 90W and
94W.

For the forecast, the weak high pressure in place will change
little into early next week. A weak cold front will move across
the northern Gulf Sat through Sun, with very little impact on
winds and seas. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds
will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of
Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough
develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to
occasionally fresh SE to S winds and slight to moderate seas are
expected over much of the Gulf today as ridging prevails over the
southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong
SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf starting late Sun
into next week as the pressure gradient between the high pressure
and low pressure W of the area Gulf tightens. A cold front then
moves into the far western Gulf early on Tue, then stalls and
weakens.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak ridging stretches southward from the western Atlantic toward
the northwestern Caribbean while a trough is analyzed from near
the southeastern Bahamas through the Windward Passage, to
southwestern Haiti and to near 16N74W. Isolated showers are near
the trough, and over some sections of Haiti. Overnight partial
scatterometer satellite data indicates that mostly fresh trade
winds are confined to the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 7
ft with these winds. Fresh NE winds are in the lee of Cuba and
in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds
are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft.

Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are confined to the
southwestern Caribbean as the eastern extent of the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough is within close proximity of this section
of the sea.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will continue
over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the
south-central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the
region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected
offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend
into next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low that is north
of the area near 34N53W south-southwestward to 30N55W, to 29N60W
and to 27.5N67W. A trough is ahead of the stationary front along
a position from 31N48W to 27N50W and to 23N54.5W. An upper-level
trough is over this area, and is helping to sustain scattered
moderate convection from 22N to 31N between 47W and 54W. Over the
eastern Atlantic, a 1015 mb low has dropped to south of 30N near
29N25W 1015 mb. An occluded front extends from the low to 30N24W.
A cold front extends from that point to 26N25W and to 25N30W,
where it transitions to a shearline to 26N35W and to 27N40W.
Strong high pressure is present north of the low and fronts, with
the resultant pressure allowing for fresh northeast to east winds
to exist north of this system. Seas are 8 to 12 ft in mixed swell
north of 26N between 24W and 46W. Elsewhere, gentle to locally
moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are north of 20N
between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. In the tropical
Atlantic,roughly from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser
Antilles, gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are
present across those waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will
occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and
central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the
north and low pressure remains anchored over the south-central
Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are
expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of
northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast
of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on
Sun, followed by mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas
in the wake of the front.

$$
Aguirre