RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

839
AXNT20 KNHC 241559
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Mar 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N19W to 00N36W. Scattered moderate convection
from 01N to 04N east of 23W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has entered the far NE Gulf, extending from the
Florida Big Bend to the mouth of the Mississippi River. N of the
boundary, moderate E winds prevail. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high
pressure is over the north-central Gulf near 27N89W. A surface
trough is in the Bay of Campeche. This pattern is supporting
moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas in the bay of Campeche,
with gentle breezes for the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, the cold front will dissipate across the NE
Gulf by Wed, and weak high pressure will again build over the
northeast Gulf through Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will
support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into
the northern Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered between northeast Honduras and
Jamaica, with a surface trough extending SE to 13N78W. Another
westward-moving surface trough is noted along 67W in the SE basin.
Winds through the Caribbean are being regulated by the relatively
modest gradient between lower pressure from the aforementioned
features and high pressure to the north, leading to fresh NE to E
winds just S of the Greater Antilles as well as through the
Windward Passage and offshore Colombia, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly 3 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, 1020 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic
centered E of the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong NE
winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south
of Hispaniola through tonight. A weakening stationary front
extending from the central Atlantic through the U.S.V.I. will
drift NW and gradually dissipate tonight. Fresh to strong winds
and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia tonight
and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure
moves slightly eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front has entered the far NW waters from 31N77W to near
Daytona Beach, Florida. N of this boundary, strong NE winds and
rapidly building seas exist. A dissipating stationary front
extends from 31N48W to just NE of the northern Leeward Islands.
Some fresh S winds persist E of this boundary N of 28N to 45W,
with rough seas to 9 ft on both sides of the boundary, N of 27N
between 43W and 49W. A ridge axis between this two features exits
SW through the Bahamas and across South Florida, creating a zone
of gentle anticyclonic winds and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is nearly
stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing strong NE winds
NW of the islands, with associated rough seas in an area N of 22N
between 30W and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, moderate trades and
seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, strong to near gale force winds and
rough to very rough seas will accompany a cold front which will
reach from Bermuda to Cape Canaveral, Florida, by this afternoon.
Winds and seas will then diminish through Wed as the front stalls
from 31N63W to central Florida, then dissipates. Moderate winds
and seas will persist through Thu across the region. Looking
ahead, another cold front will move into the waters offshore of
northeast Florida on Sat, followed by strong to near-gale force
winds and rough to very rough seas.

$$
Konarik