RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121949 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026

Corrected Caribbean Sea synopsis

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds are east
of NE Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will
move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh to gale-
force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu night. A Gale
Warning is in effect for a portion of the NW waters for tonight.
Peak winds should reach around 35 kt with peak seas around 10 ft
tonight. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as
it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida tomorrow
morning, and conditions will gradually improve tomorrow.

For the gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and
Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center
at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 07N13W, then reaches southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ
continues from 03N20W across 00N25W to near the coast of Brazil
at 03S40W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is
seen south of 03N between 03W and 25W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida
panhandle to 25N94W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico
near 20N97W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft
are behind the front. N winds to near gale are over the far west-
central Gulf with seas 4-8 ft. A pre-frontal trough extends from
25N88W to the Florida panhandle with scattered moderate convection
occurring north of 25N east of 88W. Elsewhere across the Gulf
ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5
ft.

For the forecast, the cold front will quickly reach from north-
central Florida to just SE of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon,
then stall and significantly weaken over the southeastern Gulf
tonight into early Fri, dissipating Fri night. Marine conditions
will improve significantly early Fri through Sun as weak high
pressure settles just N of the basin. Another strong cold front is
expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the
southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to near gale-force winds
will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale
force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore
Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico Mon and Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...Corrected

A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High north
of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is producing fresh to strong
NE trades just north of Colombia, moderate to fresh E trades over
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and moderate or weaker in the
NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft just north of Colombia, 5-7 ft over
the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and 2-5 ft over the NW
Caribbean. No significant deep convection is occurring over the
Caribbean today.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central
Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia
will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through
the rest of this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will also
pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and the Gulf of
Honduras also through the rest of this morning. The high pressure
will shift eastward today through Fri night, leading to fresh to
strong winds becoming confined to the south- central Caribbean S of
13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-
wide as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build
across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh
to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N
Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning.

Fresh to strong SW winds in advance of a cold front have
developed just east of NE Florida with seas 5-6 ft. Winds near the
Canary Islands are NE fresh to strong with seas to 12 ft. Elsewhere,
ridging extends west- southwestward to 27N80W from a 1033 mb
Bermuda-Azores High near 36N30W. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is causing widespread
moderate to fresh trades over the forecast waters with seas 4-8
ft. A surface trough extending from 22N62W to 27N61W is forcing
isolated moderate convection within 60 NM of the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds are
E of northern Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That
front will move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh
to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu
night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as
it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then
drift to the NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure ridging
will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and strengthen
Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds
and rough seas nearly basin-wide. The next cold front may move
into the waters off Florida Mon night.

$$
Landsea