RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 061749
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell... A
cold front is analyzed from 31N62W southwestward to the northern
coast of Haiti. A second cold front follows from 31N65W to 24N71W. Gale
force winds prevail N of 27N between 60W-75W. Rough seas are
noted N of 23N and W of 60W, with very rough seas up to 16 ft N of
26N between 65W and 77W. These conditions will follow the fronts
through Sat as they merge and the new boundary moves E. A new low
pressure system is expected to rapidly deepen across the W
Atlantic tonight as it tracks eastward, producing a large area of
gale-force winds mainly N of 27N. Rough to very rough seas will
accompany these winds today, then as the low deepens even more and
moves NE, seas in our area are expected to peak at 30-33 ft N of
28N between 50W-65W. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward
into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually
improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells
persist into early next week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near
06.5N11W and runs southwestward to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues
from 04N15W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
01N to 04N between 25W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high centered over the western Gulf is supporting
generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. Winds in the
far northern Gulf are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 6-9 ft in
the far SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel and FL Straits, to 3-6 ft
across much of the remaining Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the far NW Gulf
along the TX coast.

For the forecast, 1025 mb high pressure has shifted into the W Gulf
offshore of Tampico, Mexico near 23N96.5W, Fresh NW to N winds
and rough seas will diminish this afternoon across the southeast
Gulf as high pressure persists across the western Gulf through Sat
morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow another cold front
that will move across the eastern Gulf Fri night and Sat. High
pressure will build over the basin once again in the wake of that
front and will remain in control of the weather pattern through
early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves southwestward from southwest Haiti to the
waters offshore SE Jamaica. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 7
to 10 ft seas are ongoing behind the front and across much of the
Caribbean W of 76W. Areas E of 76W are seeing mostly gentle to
moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N, in the
vicinity of the Colombia Low and the East Pacific monsoon trough.

For the forecast, a weakening cold front currently moving across
the NW Caribbean, from Haiti to 15N77W, will stall from the
eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat, then will
dissipate by Sat. Strong to near-gale N winds with rough seas will
prevail across W and SW portions of the basin today, diminishing
to fresh to strong winds tonight and continuing through Sat.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas between Colombia
and Hispaniola early next week as high pressure builds north of
the area after multiple Atlantic frontal passages.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warnings and Significant Swell areas.

A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of both fronts mentioned
above, from 31N62W to the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming along this trough N
of 23N. In the east Atlantic, a dissipating cold front is analyzed
from the coast of Morocco near 25N15W to 21.5N32.5W, where it
becomes a dissipating stationary front that reaches to 23N45W.

Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and
rough seas are noted north of 23N and west of 60W. To the east,
north of 20N between 45W and 60W, fresh to strong southerly winds
and rough seas are present. For areas N of 20N and E of 40W,
rough to very rough seas persist in decaying NW swell, with seas
of 12-15 ft prevailing N of 26N and E of 30W, with highest seas N
of the Canary Islands. Winds in this region are light to gentle
due to a 1026 mb high centered near 29N29W. Farther south from 05N
to 13N between 28N and 45W, a swath of fresh to strong trades is
confirmed via scatterometer data. For much of the remaining
tropical Atlantic east of 60W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and
moderate to locally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast, gale force winds and very rough seas prevail N
of 27N, on both sides of a pair of cold fronts that extend across
the W Atlantic, from near Bermuda to Haiti and the SE Bahamas. The
fronts will merge today and the new boundary will extend from
25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat morning, then weaken from 22N55W
to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. A reinforcing front will move
off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W
to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall
and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Gale to near
storm-force winds and seas in excess of 20 ft will follow the
second front N of 27N this weekend. Seas will gradually subside
from west to east early next week.

$$
Adams