RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 281100
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1050 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African
continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N15W to 08N35W to
07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N
between 18W and 52W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across
the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Scattered showers prevail across the SW and SE Gulf in the wake
of a cold front, which tail still reaches the Bay of Campeche.
Also with strong high pressure of 1031 mb located over Arkansas,
which ridge is building across the Gulf in the wake of the front,
a tight pressure gradient is resulting in the continuation of
fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft across the basin,
except the NW Gulf. Over the NW Gulf, winds are moderate to
locally fresh mainly from the east, and seas are moderate to 7 ft.

For the forecast, the tail of the cold front is expected to exit
completely the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will
follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving
tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in
the NW Gulf tonight and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next
cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and
meander slowly southeastward across the NW and N central Gulf Sun
through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula
is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft.
Scattered showers are also ahead of the front mainly affecting the
Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. A high pressure system
over the north central Atlantic continues to tighten the pressure
gradient in the central Caribbean, leading to the continuation of
fresh to near gale force winds in the SW basin and portions of the
central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and
seas are moderate.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW
Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the
SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela,
through later this morning before diminishing in the afternoon
hours. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the
eastern and central basin through Sun. The cold front is expected
to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening,
then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure
gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil
marine conditions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N71W to Andros
Island to W Cuba and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The front
is also supporting scattered showers ahead and behind it, between
Freeport in the Bahamas and 67W. The remainder central and
eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of strong high
pressure just west of the Azores. A weakening stationary front
extending from 31N35W to 27N48W along with a pair of surface
troughs ahead of the front, are supporting moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern subtropics
along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a
1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the
SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 25N and in the
approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. The cold
front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the
central Bahamas tonight, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW
Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of
the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the
forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to
strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida
offshore waters by Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast
to come off the NE Florida coast Tue evening.

$$
Ramos