RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warnings:
MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and
CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through
13/12Z at least, and for Canarias, the warning is valid from
12/15Z to 13/12Z at least. Please visit website:
wwmiws.wmo.int/ index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to 04N40W to
03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted
from 05N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 16W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate southerly
winds prevail over the waters W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds
are over the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds are elsewhere.
Seas are in the 1-3 ft range.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida
will slide eastward and into the Atlantic through Sat to produce
moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W
Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are
expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next
cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning,
bringing increasing winds and building seas behind the front. The
front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N/25N by
Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean, with scattered
moderate convection in its vicinity. Fresh to strong winds prevail
over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-10 ft
range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are elsewhere
E of 80W. Moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail W of 80W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough
seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning
due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the
Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force at night
offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the
Atlantic waters and through the passages and into the eastern part
of the basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the
northwestern Caribbean early Mon, accompanied by increasing winds
and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to
reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening then begin to
stall and weaken.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic.

A cold front extends from 31N59W across the SE Bahamas to the
coast of eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of
the front, generally north of 30N to 50W. Gentle to moderate
winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, prevail W of the front. Seas of 8-9 ft
are found N of 29N between 52W and 70W. Farther east, a cold
front extends from 31N10W to 24N24W to 25N35W. Aside from the area
of gale force winds discussed above, fresh to near- gale force
winds, and seas of 10-17 ft, prevail N of the front. Fresh to
locally strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft, prevail elsewhere S of
24N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are noted
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front is forecast to become stationary
tonight into Sat, then lift northward while dissipating. Large NW
swell is expected north of 27N behind the front through Sat
morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off the coast of
the southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and
quickly building seas expected behind the front. The front is
forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by
Mon morning, and from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba
Tue morning.

$$
AL