RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 112106
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to
07N17.5W. The ITCZ continues from 07N17.5W to 02N32W to 02N47W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 00N to
15N between 20W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
from 02N to 05N between 38W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from central Florida to near the Texas-
Mexico border. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the waters E
of 94W, with light to gentle winds W of 94W. Seas are in the 3-5
ft range E of 88W, and 2-3 ft W of 88W.

For the forecast, the front will drift southeastward this evening
before dissipating tonight. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally
fresh E to NE winds will occur in the eastern Bay of Campeche and
offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front
will enter the northern Gulf on Sun, with increasing winds and
building seas in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean.
Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, gentle
to moderate winds are noted. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the
south central Caribbean, and 5-7 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W,
seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and
high pressure to the north. Strong E winds will pulse in the
central basin, and winds may reach near-gale force at times
offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas are expected near and to
the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade
winds and rough seas in E swell will prevail over the Atlantic
waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through
this weekend. A cold front will approach the northwestern
Caribbean by early next week, with increasing winds and building
seas behind the front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A two cold fronts extend across the SW North Atlantic discussion
waters. The first front enters the waters near 31N69W and extends
SW to near 27N75W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is in the vicinity of this front. The second cold front
enters the discussion waters near 31N74W and extends SW to central
Florida. Fresh to strong winds are N of 28N east of the first
front to near 60W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 29N west of
this front. Seas over these waters are in the 7-10 ft range.
Farther east, another cold front enters the waters near 31N22W to
30N39W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are N of this
front. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-11 ft are found S of
22N between 30W and 60W. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-9
ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the cold fronts will rapidly progress eastward
into the central Atlantic through Fri, and widespread strong to
locally near-gale force SW winds will occur ahead of the front,
generally north of 28N and east of 70W into Fri afternoon. Near
and to the west of the cold fronts, fresh to locally strong W to
NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore of Florida to
70W through late tonight. Rough seas associated with this storm
system are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly subsiding from
west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic,
rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail through Fri
morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas this
weekend. The next cold front will push off the coast of the
southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and
building seas in the wake of the front.

$$
AL