RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220500
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Dec 22 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move through
Central Atlantic waters early this week, with strong to near
gale- force northerly winds behind it. Significant NW swell, with
period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the region will
accompany these winds and combine with wind- waves to induce very
rough seas SE of Bermuda starting Mon night, spreading E across
waters N of 20N through Wed. Widespread seas of 12 to 16 ft can be
expected from 40W to 70W during this period.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough is now confined entirely inland over Africa.
The ITCZ extends from 07N19W to 05N24W to 06N34W to 05N41W to
06N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 60 nm either
side of the ITCZ axis.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough extends from just offshore Tampico, Mexico, to
just offshore Campeche, Mexico. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection associated with this trough is impacting waters
S of 23N and W of 94W. Recent scatterometer data shows widespread
moderate to fresh NE to E winds over much of the basin, with the
NW Gulf having gentle SE winds. Seas are 3 to 5 ft, except less
than 3 ft where the gentle winds prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure building across the eastern
United States will tighten the pressure gradient across the
Florida Straits, bringing an increase in winds. Fresh winds will
develop over those waters tonight, and will strengthen Monday into
late Tue. Rough seas will develop with the strong winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the high pressure N of the region and
relatively lower pressure in northern Colombia is allowing for
mostly moderate to fresh trade winds across the basin, evidenced
by late evening scatterometer passes. One ASCAT pass depicted
strong to near-gale force winds within 90 nm of the Colombia
coast, where rough seas are likely ongoing. Elsewhere, seas are 4
to 7 ft. No significant convection is occurring.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia will
pulse to near gale-force speeds at night. Rough seas are expected
with these winds. High pressure will move off the coast of the
United States in the wake of a cold front over the SW N Atlantic
waters early this week. This will tighten the pressure gradient
over the waters in the lee of Cuba, south of Hispaniola, and in
the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds over these waters
will strengthen by Mon evening, and continue through Thu night.
Otherwise, mixed long period swell over the tropical Atlantic
waters will subside Mon evening. New long-period northerly swell
will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Wed and Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell arriving starting Mon night that will bring very rough seas
to part of the central Atlantic into mid-week.

A weak stationary front extends from SE of Bermuda to just E of
the NW Bahamas. Convection associated with this boundary has
generally dissipated this evening. To the east, a surface trough
is noted from 31N50W to 24N61W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 150 nm E of this boundary, N of 29N. In the far
eastern Atlantic, a cold front stretches along 22N from Morocco to
24W.

Latest scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh NE winds
offshore Florida, in the vicinity of the Bahamas, and for waters N
of the Antilles to about 22N. For remaining waters W of 50W, winds
are moderate or weaker. Seas in these waters are 4 to 7 ft. For
waters N of 20N and E of 50W, altimeter data confirms rough seas
prevail, with widespread 8 to 11 ft seas, along with mainly fresh
NE winds. For the tropical waters between the Lesser Antilles and
Africa, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front will move into the
northern waters early on Mon and will rapidly progress eastward
through midweek. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE
winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front. Very
rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 75W Tue
through midweek. A second cold front may enter the northern waters
midweek with strong winds and building seas in the wake of the
front E of 70W.

$$
Konarik