RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 082306
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 09 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2245 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell: A
cold front is analyzed from near 31N53W southwestward to 26N63W
to 25N70W and to the central Bahamas. Latest scatterometer
satellite data passes reveal west to northwest winds of 30 to 45
kt west of the front north of 27N and to near a line from 31N71W
to 27N65W. Seas with these winds are in the range of 20 to 30 ft,
with the highest of the seas north of 29N between 54W and 66W.
Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys in the area along with recent altimeter
satellite passes indicate these very high seas behind the front.
There was an instance this afternoon of a Sofar Ocean Spotter
buoy reporting 31 ft seas at location of 30N60W. Very rough seas
in excess of 12 ft extend well to the south of these gale winds
to near 23N and between 55W and 71W due to the occurrence of
significant northwest swell. Fresh to near gale-force southwest
winds, with frequent gusts to gale-force are east of the front to
a line roughly from 30N35W to 24N50W to 24N62W. Seas with these
winds are in the range of 8 to 12 ft in northwest swell, except
for higher seas of 12 to 16 ft north of 26N. The front is
forecast to reach from near 31N43W to 18N62W by early Mon
afternoon. West to northwest strong to near gale-force winds are
expected at that time west of the front to near 62W, and north
of 26N along with seas of 17 to 26 ft in northwest swell. Fresh
to strong winds will be north of 25N between the front and 71W at
that time along with seas of 14 to 23 ft in northwest swell. The
winds ahead of the front with frequent gusts to gale-force will
diminish early on Mon. Meanwhile, the gale-force winds behind the
front will diminish to fresh to strong speeds by early Tue
morning. Very rough seas generated by these winds will propagate
southeastward impacting most of the waters north of about 16N and
northeast and east of the Bahamas through the middle of the
week. The very rough seas are likely to finally subside to just
below 12 ft by early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay up
to date with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
these events.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06.5N11W and extends southwestward to near 03N18W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ that continues to 01N30W to
01N40W and to the coast of Brazil near 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between
33W-41W, and also south of the ITCZ between 36W-44W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure of 1025 mb is centered over the west-central Gulf
near 24N92W, with a ridge stretching south-southeastward to
across southeastern Mexico. Seas are in the range of 2 to 4 ft,
with the highest of the seas located in the eastern Gulf, and in
and near the Yucatan Channel. Occasional seas to 5 ft are in the
Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the weather
pattern over the basin through at least the middle of the week
generally maintaining a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow
throughout. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are expected
mainly at night just west of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the
far western waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail through
at least the middle of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate fresh to
strong north to northeast winds roughly between 75W and 83W. Seas
with these winds are in the range of 5 to 7 ft, except for
slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft south of 15N as noted in
earlier altimeter satellite passes. Elsewhere across the basin,
gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are present, except
for fresh north to northeast winds north of 15N between 68W and
71W, including the Mona Passage and also north of 15N between
75W and 77W, including the Windward Passage. Seas elsewhere are
in the range of 3 to 5 ft, except for higher seas of 5 to 7 ft
north of 15N between 68W and 76W and seas of 4 to 6 ft elsewhere
north of 15N east of 80W. Lower seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the Gulf
of Honduras and north of 20N west 77W.

The remnants of a frontal boundary are analyzed as a trough from
the Leeward Islands to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W.
Isolated showers are possible near the trough east of 71W.

For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will be
reinforced by a cold front tonight into Mon, with the combined
front sliding east of the Leeward Islands by Tue. Winds will
increase in the wake of the front, becoming strong initially
offshore Colombia and Hispaniola tonight, then expanding to much
of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, Mon
through Wed, as high pressure in the western Atlantic builds
southward toward the area. Rough seas will accompany these strong
winds. In addition, large northwest to north swell will impact
the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters
tonight into Wed creating hazardous seas.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on a gale
warning and significant swell in the western and central
Atlantic.

A remnant frontal boundary trough is analyzed from near 31N43W
southwestward to 24N55W and continues to the Leeward Islands.
Conditions east of this boundary are as described in the Special
Features section in association with the cold front that extends
from near 31N53W southwestward to 26N63W to 25N70W and to the
central Bahamas. For areas outside of those described above in
the Special Features section, the majority of the Atlantic waters
south of 20N are dominated by moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas, with the exception of locally fresh to strong
northeast winds near Cabo Verde. To the north of 20N and east of
35W, winds are generally gentle to moderate along with moderate
seas as high pressure of 1025 mb located at 28N23W controls the
weather pattern over this part of the Atlantic. Isolated weak
showers are within 60 nm either side of the trough north of 26N.

For the forecast W of 55W, except as stated above under Special
Features, the Special Features cold front as described above
will merge tonight with the remnants of a frontal boundary that
runs from 23N55W to the Leeward Islands. The merged front will
remain across the southeastern forecast waters on Mon, then move
east of 55W by Mon night, allowing winds to gradually diminish.
Very rough seas will continue across most of the waters east of
77W through Tue gradually subsiding from west to east.

$$
Aguirre