RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 292203
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Thu Apr 30 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2130 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and
continues south-southwestward to 00N33W. The ITCZ is S of the
Equator from 00S35W to 02S43W. Numerous scattered moderate
convection is depicted from 01N to 07N and east of 16W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure of 1018 mb is centered near the Florida Big
Bend. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure
over Mexico is leading to mainly moderate SE winds over all but
the NE Gulf of Mexico, where gentle winds prevail. A diurnal
trough is moving westward off the coast of the Yucatan Peninsula
into the Bay of Campeche, and fresh NE to E winds are within about
60 nm of shore in association with it. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the
western Gulf and 3 or less in the east.

Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern
Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western
Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generally
maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the
basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf
through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while
mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough
will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during
the evenings and at night through Fri. A weak cold front will
move into the far northern Gulf Thu and stall Thu night into Fri.
A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast
late Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the
Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, then from central Florida to the
Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the SE Gulf Mon. The
front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast
winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and
Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but
possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before
subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms,
some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic
and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is
sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia
and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to
moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin
along seas of 2 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon,
reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected
through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat
night and diminishing on Sun and Mon. A weakening cold front will
approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to near 23N67W. A warm front
extends from 31N47W to 26N47W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted east of the front, N of 24N between 47W and 57W. Fresh NW
winds and seas of 7 to 11 ft, highest N of 25N, follow the cold
front, westward to 70W. E of the warm front, fresh S winds and
rough seas are also present N of 25N and E to 40W. Surrounding
these areas of higher winds and seas, moderate winds and seas
extend N of 22N between 35W and 75W, with the remainder of the
central and eastern basin N of 18N having gentle winds and 3 to 6
ft seas as high pressure centered NE of the Bahamas dominate.

In the eastern Atlantic, a cold front stretches from 31N21W to
21N40W. Weak high pressure dominates both sides of this boundary,
leading to gentle winds and moderate seas. Across waters S of 18N,
gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 27N55W
to near 23N67W will shift E of 55W tonight. Another cold front
will move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it
moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri
afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold
front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach
from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and
stall into Sun night and Mon. Low pressure is expected to move
along the front at that time.

$$
Konarik