RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131732
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jan 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 07N17W. An ITCZ
continues from 07N17W to 01N35W, then turns northwestward to
near the coast of Suriname at 06N55W. Widely scattered moderate
convection is seen south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 00N
to 03N between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring up to 110 nm along either side of the ITCZ west of 22W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front curves southwestward from the
northwest Bahamas across the Florida Straits to beyond the Yucatan
Channel. Patchy showers are seen up to 70 nm north of this
boundary. A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the far
west-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Another surface
trough is generating similar conditions off the Florida west
coast. A developing 1028 mb high over New Orleans is supporting
light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft north of 26N. South of
26N, gentle to moderate N to NE winds with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail,
except fresh to strong NW to N winds with 6 to 8 ft seas off
Veracruz, Mexico.

For the forecast, winds and seas off Veracruz, Mexico will
diminish further today. Otherwise, moderate or lighter winds will
prevail across the Gulf through early Wed. The next cold front
will enter the northern Gulf Wed night, and sink southward through
early Thu. Both winds and seas will increase quickly behind the
front. The front will be southeast of the Gulf by Thu evening,
which should allow conditions to improve through Fri. A reinforcing
surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the Gulf late in the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail end of a stationary front along with a surface trough are
producing widely scattered showers at the northwestern basin.
Convergent trade winds are causing similar conditions near and
south of Haiti. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional weather in the Caribbean Sea. Fresh with locally strong
NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft
seas dominate the north-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E
winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, the tail end of the stationary front is expected
to dissipate today. Fresh to strong winds offshore of northwestern
Colombia will diminish midweek, then return this weekend.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A cold front
will move into the northwestern basin Thu, then stall from eastern
Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure
gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the
upcoming weekend, leading to increasing winds across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front stretches southwestward from east of Bermuda
across 31N64W to beyond the northwest Bahamas. Scattered showers
are evident up to 150 nm northwest of this feature. to the south,
two weak but persistent surface troughs are sustaining patchy
showers from 21N to 27N between 63W and the southeast Bahamas. At
the central Atlantic, a robust upper-level low near 24N50W is
generating scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from 14N
to 24N between 35W and 49W. At the eastern Atlantic, a weak cold
front along with a surface trough are bringing patchy showers
north of 23N between 10W and 35W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are found near the
stationary front. Otherwise, the Atlantic Ridge is providing light
to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft north of 20N and west of
55W. North of 24N between 35W and 55W, gentle to moderate E to SE
winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells exist. For the
central Atlantic from 04N to 24N between 35W and 55W, moderate to
fresh with locally strong NE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are
present. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 20N between 55W and
the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E winds and seas at 4 to 6
ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 5
to 7 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will dissipate
tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. A
pre-frontal trough will emerge off the coast of northeastern
Florida Wed morning and quickly move eastward, accompanied by
fresh to strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms
north of 27N. The next cold front will move off the southeastern
United States Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the
southeast Bahamas Fri morning, and then from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat
morning where it will stall and weaken.

$$

Chan