RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for
the marine zones of Agadir through 13/12Z, and Tarfaya from 12/15Z
through 13/12Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast
product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border Gambia and southern Senegal, then extends southwestward to
03N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 30W and
continues to 03S38W and to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is from the Equator to
04N between 23W and 27W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm northwest of the ITCZ between 25W and 34W, and
within 90 nm north of the ITCZ between 34W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad ridge extends from a 1025 mb high center that is offshore
the Carolinas southwestward to the western Gulf. The related
gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh easterly winds
across the basin. Both buoy observations and recent altimeter
satellite data indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft over the basin. Higher
seas of 7 to 10 ft are in the Straits of Florida, where strong
northeast to east winds are present. Much lower seas of 1 to 3 ft
are in the far northeast Gulf, where light to gentle east winds
exist.

For the forecast, the high pressure center off the Carolinas will
begin to slide eastward into the western Atlantic starting this
evening. A ridge will extend southwestward from the high to the
north-central Gulf through the forecast period. The related gradient
will maintain moderate to fresh east winds across the basin through
Wed. Afterward, the high pressure will be weakening allowing for
winds over the area to diminish to gentle to moderate speeds.
Pulsing fresh to strong east winds will surge through the Straits of
Florida and into the southeastern Gulf starting today.
Seas across the basin will be at a mostly moderate state, except
reaching a rough state, at times, in the Straits of Florida
beginning on Mon. Seas subside around midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Overnight scatterometer satellite data shows fresh to strong
northeast winds south of about 15N between 72W and 79W and in the
Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are to 8 ft with these winds. The
scatterometer satellite data also shows a swath of fresh to
strong northeast winds in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward
Passage. Moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere south of 16N east of
75W and also west of 80W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these trades.
Lighter trades of gentle speeds are north of 16N east of 75W and
just south of Jamaica. Gentle to moderate trades are in the Gulf of
Honduras, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

Convergent trades are helping to sustain scattered showers and
thunderstorms along and offshore the coast of Costa Rica.

For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will
maintain fresh to strong east winds and rough seas over the south-
central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the early
part of the week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building
seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and
south of Hispaniola through most of the upcoming week. Winds and
seas will diminish late in the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A nearly stationary front extends southwestward from 31N59W to
26N63W, and to the north-central portion of the Dominican
Republic. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered
moderate convection within 240 nm east of the front north of 26N,
and within 150 nm east of the front south of 26N. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident along and just
inland the coast of Hispaniola.

A trough is analyzed over the western Atlantic from near 29N73W
to 25N72.5W. Isolated showers have recently developed from 25N
to 27N between 72W and 74W.

Overnight scatterometer satellite data reveals fresh to locally
strong northeast winds behind the front. Seas with these winds
are in the range of 7 to 10 ft between the front and the Bahamas.
Lower seas of 5 to 7 ft are west of the Bahamas, but occasionally
to 9 ft in the Straits of Florida. To the east of the front, the
basin is dominated by a broad area of high pressure that is
associated to a strong Azores high center of 1032 mb. The pressure
gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure
to its south is generally supporting moderate to fresh trades east
of 60W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period northeast swell.
An area of light to gentle winds is between the front and 60W.
Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed north and east swell within this area.

For the forecast west of 55W, the fresh to locally strong northeast
winds behind the aforementioned front will expand in coverage
through Mon night as the northern portion of the frontal boundary
transitions back to a cold front as it reaches the northeast
forecast waters late on Mon. The winds then diminish to mostly fresh
speeds starting Tue south of 28N as the high pressure weakens, with
an associated ridge near 31N. Rough seas from large northeast swell
will linger into the start of next week between Bermuda and the
Bahamas.

$$
Aguirre