RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 01N12W to 01N30W and to 01N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 165 nm either N and S of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The gradient of pressure between a surface ridge over the eastern
half of the Gulf and low pressure over Mexico extending across the
western half of the basin supports moderate to fresh S to SE winds
basin-wide. Seas are slight E of 85W and moderate elsewhere. The
southerly flow in the western Gulf is lifting northward smoke from
agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Mariners are advised that
this may reduce the visibility in the area. Aside from lower
visibility from the smoke mainly over the SW basin, dense fog is
ongoing over the northern Gulf waters, N of 26N.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf
through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north
of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as
a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong
cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend
and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds
and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and
Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE
winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the
front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Bermuda continues to
affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force
NE to E winds and rough seas in the south-central and portions of
the SW Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate
seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. In the
Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and seas to 6 ft are
ongoing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of
Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the
Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses
through the central tropical Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the
Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the
region and portions of the tropical Atlantic waters. Between both
ridges, a slow moving cold front extends from 31N41W to 27N47W
where it stalls while continuing to 24N67W. Over the SW N Atlantic
waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to
11 ft prevails E of 70W to about 36W. Over the far E subtropical
Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including the Canary
Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical Atlantic, winds
are moderate to fresh from the NE to E W of 35W. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 70W
will slowly subside from west to east through early Fri in the
wake of a weakening front currently extending from 31N42W to
24N67W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will
prevail offshore of northern Florida into this weekend as a front
passes north of the area. Moderate or weaker winds are expected
elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is
slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and
increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected in the
wake of the front through early next week.

$$
Ramos