RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0955 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and
continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 05N53W.
Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from
03N to 13N and east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front has entered the NW Gulf waters, while a stationary
front remains straddled across the NE and northern waters
associated with a 1011 mb low pres near 29N88W. Scattered showers
are found in off the Florida panhandle and SW Florida. Moderate to
locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
occurring north of the frontal boundaries. In the remainder of the
basin, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure will exit the basin northeastward
toward the Carolinas this morning. Locally strong winds and moderate
to locally rough seas will persist behind the boundaries before
diminishing late today. The cold front will move southeastward
farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf
by late Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf.
Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters late
Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri
morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western
Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the
influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is
resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the
far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central
Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and moderate
seas are evident. Light to gentle NE to E breezes and 2 to 3 ft
seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and
thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair conditions
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, winds will diminish across the basin today and
Wed as the aforementioned trough progresses westward, disrupting
the influence of the subtropical ridge. However, winds will
freshen up again late this week as the high pressure builds in
north of the area. Meanwhile, moderate to locally rough seas, in
NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through
the week and into the weekend.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near 31N78W to
Palm Beach, Florida. Fresh to locally strong SE-S winds and
moderate to rough seas north of 28N and west of 75W. Farther east,
a surface trough along 63W and divergence aloft support numerous
showers north of 21N and between 53W and 66W. The pressure
gradient between the 1034 mb high pressure near the Azores and
lower pressures in the deep tropics and the aforementioned trough
result in fresh to locally strong easterly winds over much of the
basin east of 65W. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the Gulf of
America will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast
late today, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed,
and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to
strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough
currently located near 63W. The trough will continue to move
westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico today, and N of Hispaniola
Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will
gradually diminish over the next couple of days.

$$
Delgado