RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
000<br />AXNT20 KNHC 151012<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />1215 UTC Thu May 15 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />1000 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N17W to 06N19W. The <br />ITCZ continues westward from 06N19W through 02N35W to near the <br />French Guiana coast at 04N51W. Scattered moderate to isolated <br />strong convection is noted within 150 nm on either side of the<br />boundaries between 15W-46W. A surface trough is analyzed along 53W<br />and S of 14N. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevail from<br />45W-53W.<br /><br />The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering<br />scattered thunderstorms across the SW Caribbean waters near <br />Panama and northwestern Colombia.<br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />A surface ridge reaches west-southwestward from a 1017 mb high at<br />the east-central Gulf to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate<br />to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present at the <br />northwestern Gulf. Light to gentle winds with 1 to 2 ft seas exist<br />at the eastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate ENE to SSE winds and seas<br />at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.<br /><br />For the forecast, the high pressure over eastern Gulf will drift <br />northeastward across the Florida Peninsula and merge with the <br />Atlantic ridge through Fri. This will maintain fresh to briefly <br />strong SE to S return flow across most of the western Gulf through<br />the weekend. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />A surface ridge N of the area is sustaining trade winds across <br />the entire basin. Convergent trades are producing scattered <br />showers near the Lesser Antilles, Hispaniola, and Puerto Rico. <br />Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in<br />the SW Caribbean. Fresh to strong E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are<br />evident in the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate E to ESE <br />winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist elsewhere in the northwestern <br />basin, including waters near the Windward Passage. Mostly fresh NE<br />to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are seen the south-central and <br />southeastern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft <br />are noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate ENE to E winds with<br />4 to 6 ft seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean.<br /><br />For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure across the <br />western Atlantic extending a ridge southwestward into the Bahamas <br />will support fresh trades E of 80W through today. The high <br />pressure will then slide SE and across the central Atlantic <br />subtropical waters through the weekend, which will keep mainly <br />moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern Caribbean <br />through Fri night, and gentle to moderate easterly winds through <br />the weekend. Fresh trades and moderate to rough seas in easterly <br />trade wind swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters <br />and passages through Sat night. Otherwise, pulsing fresh to strong<br />E winds will develop each night across the Gulf of Honduras <br />through the weekend. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A surface trough is analyzed along 28N between 36W-62W. Scattered <br />showers are occurring within 90 nm of the boundary mainly E of<br />45W. Convergent southerly winds are producing scattered moderate <br />convection southwest of Bermuda, north of 28N between 64W and <br />75W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional <br />convection in the Atlantic Basin.<br /><br />Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft are<br />evident near the surface trough, north of 25N between 35W and <br />65W. A surface ridge extending west-southwestward from a 1021 mb <br />high near 30N27W to beyond the central Bahamas. This feature is <br />supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft from 22N to<br />28N between 35W and 65W. Farther west, gentle to moderate SE to <br />SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas are present north of 22N and west of <br />65W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 22N between 35W and the<br />Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh NE to E winds with seas of 6 <br />to 9 ft exist. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7<br />ft in mixed moderate swells prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic <br />west of 35W.<br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh trade winds<br />prevail S of 25N and E of 75W, while light to moderate SE winds <br />prevail elsewhere. The high will slide SE and into the central <br />Atlantic through the upcoming weekend, with ridging extending <br />westward into central Florida. This will gradually lead to <br />anticyclonic winds across the entire area by the weekend. Moderate<br />to fresh trade winds and rough seas in mixed NE and E swell will <br />prevail south of 22N this week, including across the Atlantic <br />passages into the eastern Caribbean.<br /><br />$$<br />ERA