RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140507
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Jan 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0445 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N16W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N25W to 01N33W to 01N40W and to
near 01N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 03N to 06N between 40W and 47W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 60 nm southeast of the ITCZ between 17W-20W. Similar
convection is to the southeast from 01N to 02N between 12W-18W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A trough is analyzed from just offshore Texas near 28N96W to 23N97W
and to just inland Mexico at 18N94W. Satellite imagery shows broken
to overcast low and mid-level clouds across most of the western Gulf
to the west of a line from near 29N92W to 27N94W to 22N93W and to
18.5N94W. Patches of mostly light rain and isolated showers are
possible with these clouds.

High pressure of 1021 mb is just south of Louisiana coast near
29N91W. It supports a rather weak gradient across the area that is
generally allowing for light to gentle winds northerly winds over
most of the basin, with the exception of moderate northeast winds
over the central and eastern Bay of Campeche, and for fresh
northwest to north winds south of 20N west of 95W. Seas are in the
range of 2 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft over the
SW Gulf, and for 3 to 5 ft seas over the southeastern part of the
basin.

For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across
the basin through early Wed, except locally fresh south of 22N.
The next cold front will move into the Gulf Wed and Wed night. The
front will shift quickly southeast of the basin by Thu evening,
and will be followed by increasing winds and building seas.
Conditions will improve Thu night into the weekend. A reinforcing
surge of fresh northerly winds may impact the basin late in the
weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 0231Z Ascat satellite data pass indicates that fresh to strong
trades are confined to south of about 13N and between 73W and 78W,
including the waters adjacent to the coast of northwest Colombia.
Seas with these winds are 6 to 9 ft. The Ascat data shows that
moderate to fresh trades are elsewhere east of 83W, and gentle to
moderate northeast winds are west of 83W, with the majority of
the moderate speeds near and over the Yucatan Channel, and south
from there to near 18N. Seas are mostly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere,
except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft from 15N to 18W west
of 76W, including the Gulf of Honduras and 4 to 6 ft seas north of
15N between 68W and 76W.

Satellite imagery shows isolated showers confined to the
southwestern part of the basin south of 11N and west of 81W
to near the coast of northern Panama.

For the forecast, pulsing of fresh to strong winds offshore of
northwest Colombia will diminish Thu, then return this upcoming
weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A cold
front will move across the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, then
stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat.
The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later
in the upcoming weekend and into early next week leading to
increasing winds across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near 31N62W southwestward to
28N72W, then to the central Bahamas and to the Straits of Florida.
Moderate to fresh northeast winds are west of the front to near
70W and north of 28N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in northwest to north
swell within this area. Light east to southeast winds are
elsewhere west of the front, except for moderate south winds north
of 29N west of 77W. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in east swell over these
areas.

Broken to overcast low and mid-level clouds are evident northwest
of the front east of about 73W. Patches of light to moderate rain
and isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Scattered
to broken low clouds, and broken to overcast mid-level clouds are
northwest of the front west of 76W. Isolated mostly light showers
are over the Straits of Florida. Light rain in scattered to
broken low clouds is along and just offshore northern and central
ad Florida, where a trough resides.

To the southeast of the frontal boundary, two weak but rather
persistent troughs are evident. The first one along a position
from near 26N72W to just north of eastern Cuba, and the second one
from near 29N63W to 23N65W. No significant convection is noted
with these troughs. Isolated, small showers may be possible near
the troughs. Over the central Atlantic, a nearly stationary large
upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery to be near
24N50W. Scattered showers and a thunderstorms are within 60 nm of
the low. To the east and southeast of the low, an extensive area
of broken to overcast clouds is seen from 19N to 27.5N between 34W
and 35W. Patches of moderate rain, with embedded scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are within this area of clouds.

Farther east, a broad ridge that is anchored by a 1029 mb high
that is north of the area at 34N29W controls the weather pattern
there. A tight gradient between the ridge and relatively lower
pressure to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trades south
of 25N and east of 48W. Fully developed seas with these winds
are in the range of 8 to 10 ft. Mostly fresh trades are south of
25N between 48W and 57W along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to
gentle northeast to east winds are between 57W and the above
mentioned frontal boundary. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in an east swell
over this part of the area, with the exceptions of lower seas of
2 to 4 ft over the waters within the Bahama Island chain, and
of seas of around 2 ft south of 25N west of 79W, including the
Straits of Florida.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary
frontal boundary will gradually dissipate into early Wed. High
pressure will build in the wake of the front. A pre-frontal
trough is forecast to emerge off the coast of northeast Florida
Wed morning, and quickly move eastward accompanied by fresh to
strong winds with scattered showers and thunderstorms north of
27N. The next cold front is forecast to move over the northwest
part of the area by Thu morning, reaching from near Bermuda to the
southeastern Bahamas Fri morning, then extending from 31N59W to
25N70W Sat morning, where it will stall and weaken. Widespread
fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds
may reach gale-force Thu night east of the front and north of 30N.
A reinforcing front may impact the basin late during the upcoming
weekend.

$$
Aguirre