RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170544
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf near midnight
tonight, and the northeastern Gulf early Saturday morning, then
sweep across the rest of the Gulf through Sunday night. Fresh to
strong NW to N winds behind the front will peak at near-gale to
gale-force across the west-central and central Gulf late Saturday
night through Sunday morning, and off Veracruz, Mexico on Sunday.
Seas under the strongest winds will reach 13 to 15 ft. Conditions
should gradually improve from north to south starting Sunday
afternoon.

Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 06N17W. An
ITCZ curves westward from 06N17W through 03N30W to 04N47W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 01N to 06N between
12W and 42W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is
flaring up near both features from 01N to 09N between 10W and 46W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama and Costa Rica.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Convergent southerly winds near a cold front across southern Texas
are causing scattered showers along the Texas coastline.
Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf
with gentle to moderate ESE to S winds and 2 to 4 ft seas, except
moderate to fresh SSE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas near Veracruz,
Mexico.

For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support moderate and
weaker winds across most of the Gulf through tonight. The
aforementioned cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf late
tonight, then steadily progress southeastward on Sat with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. It will reach from
the Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, and
move southeast of the Gulf by Sun night. Near gale to gale-force
NW to N winds are anticipated behind the front. Winds should
steadily diminish from north to south late Sun afternoon through
Mon. Looking ahead, building high pressure over the southeastern
United States should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most
of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The southeastern end of a weakening stationary front along with a
surface trough are generating widely scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms across waters from near Jamaica to eastern
Cuba, including the Windward Passage. A robust trade-wind regime
continues for the central and eastern basin. Fresh to strong ENE
to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are
noted near Costa Rica and Panama. Moderate to fresh NE to E
trades with 4 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the stationary front will dissipate on Saturday.
Fresh to strong trades will pulse offshore of northwestern
Colombia and the central basin tonight and the next few nights,
reaching near-gale force at night starting Sat night and into
early next week. Looking ahead, a new cold front will arrive in
the northwestern basin Sun night, and as high pressure builds in
behind it, fresh to strong NE winds should prevail through mid-
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from northeast of Bermuda
across 31N58W to 27N65W, then continues as a stationary front
through the southeast Bahamas to beyond eastern Cuba. Widely
scattered showers are occurring up to 150 nm along either side of
this boundary. An upper-level low near 21N41W is producing
scattered moderate convection from 19N to 21N between 39W and
43W. Another cold front curves northwestward from near the Canary
Islands to near 30N35W. Scattered showers are noted up to 50 nm
along either side of this feature. Refer to the Monsoon
Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic
Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 8 to 10 ft seas
large NW swell are found near and up to 150 nm northwest of the
aforementioned cold/stationary front. Otherwise, gentle with
locally moderate E to SSE winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed
moderate swells exist north of 20N and west of 59W. Farther east,
moderate to fresh with locally strong E winds and seas at 8 to 11
ft are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between
35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and
6 to 8 ft seas dominate. For the rest of the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W, Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft in mixed
moderate swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned frontal boundary
at the western Atlantic should completely stall tonight and
dissipate on Sat. Afterward, a building Bermuda-Azores High will
enhance the trades up to fresh to strong east of 65W for the next
few days. Another cold front will emerge from the Southeast
United States coast on Sun accompanied by fresh to strong winds,
scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N. Winds
with the front will diminish on Mon. Looking ahead, building high
pressure over the southeast United States on Tue and Wed will
boost NE winds to between fresh and strong over and north of the
Bahamas.

$$

Chan