RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261045
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and extends SW
to 02N17W to 00N30W. The ITCZ continues from 00N30W to 00N46W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is
noted from 07S to 05N between 09W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends over the eastern Gulf while low
pressure dominates the western half of the basin. This is allowing
the continuation of gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off
the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle
winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide.

Shallow low-level moisture interacting with persistent SE flow
is supporting areas of dense fog across the NW Gulf. The
southeasterly winds are advecting warm, moist air over
relatively cooler shelf waters, promoting low-level saturation
within a shallow boundary layer. This process is further
enhanced by a stable near-surface layer limiting vertical
mixing, allowing fog to become dense and widespread at times.
Recent satellite imagery, including GOES-19 Night Fog
Enhancement, highlights expanding low cloud and fog coverage
across the region. In addition, both IFR and LIFR fog
probability products indicate a high likelihood of reduced
visibilities over the NW Gulf, supporting ongoing observations
of dense marine fog.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the
Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A large surface trough across the Greater Antilles northern
adjacent waters along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic
is allowing for a weak pressure gradient across much of the
Caribbean, which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
over the SE basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW
Caribbean W of 84W where moderate to locally fresh winds are
ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of America.
Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore Belize, the
Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas are moderate
to 4 ft. Otherwise, scattered to isolated showers are occurring
over the Lesser Antilles and adjacent waters.

For the forecast, a surface trough located north of the area
extending from 24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near
21N74W along with a front moving across the NW Atlantic will
continue to allow a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the
central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, thus resulting in
mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas,
except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh E to SE
winds will pulse due to nearly stationary high pressure over the E
Gulf of America. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh
speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu
as high pressure builds again N of the area in the wake of the
front.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N52W to 30N55W to 31N63W, which is
supporting moderate to fresh SW to W winds N of 29N between 55W
and 65W as well as triggering some showers over the central
subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough extending from
24N58W to 21N65W to the Great Bahama Bank near 21N74W is
supporting similar shower activity S of 27N between 55W and the
southern Bahamas. Another surface trough is over the E subtropical
Atlantic, extending from 31N30W to 25N41W, which is supporting
moderate to fresh winds ahead and in its wake along with rough
seas to 9 ft. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere, supporting
moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough N of the Greater
Antilles will remain in place through today and gradually dissipate
by Mon. The cold front will continue to support moderate to fresh
SW to W winds and rough seas to 9 ft over the NE offshore waters
through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the front.

$$
Ramos