RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

6/6/2025 4:43:30 AM

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

093 AXNT20 KNHC 060443 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0443 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38.5 S of 13N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are depicted from 04N to 07N between 34W and 41W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 07N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N36W. It resumes to the W of the above described tropical wave near 05N41W to near 06N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the eastern Gulf of America while a trough is analyzed from near 22.5N88W to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 19.5N over the central Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient in place is generally allowing for light to gentle S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and for mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except for fresh E to SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in the 3 to 5 ft range across the basin. Satellite imagery reveals that skies are hazy over the Florida peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the presence of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL). For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the central Gulf late Sun through early next week. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between rather weak high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the southern Caribbean and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to strong trades across the most of the basin, including the Gulf of Honduras, and the Windwards Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over the central section of the basin, 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Satellite imagery reveals scattered to numerous moderate convection S of 14.5N and west of 74W due to the eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic Fri through the upcoming weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build SW into the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf of Honduras through Fri evening, diminish slightly on Sat, then increase across most of the basin Sat night into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near 31N58W southwestward to 27N66W. A few clusters of scattered moderate convection are evident over the waters E and NE of northern Florida to near 78W. This activity is out ahead of a stationary front that is over the southeastern U.S., and a lingering upper-level trough that stretches from eastern Georgia to the eastern Gulf of America. Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper- level troughing that is over the central Atlantic N of about 20.5N and between 53.5W and 57W. An area of isolated showers is noted along this trough. Farther to the E, a trough is analyzed along 33W from 21N to 30N. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. High pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical waters as a 1031 mb high center is well N of the area near 39N40W. The pressure gradient in place is generally supporting moderate to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas over most of Atlantic S of 20N and east of 55W. North of 20N and east of 55W, winds are mainly moderate with seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker trades along with seas of 4 to 6 ft remain elsewhere. Satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak, has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some areas of the western Atlantic, including to over the Florida peninsula. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front SE of Bermuda will drift northward and dissipate through Fri night. Weak high pressure NW of this front will shift NE and into the central Atlantic Fri into Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue. Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening offshore of Hispaniola through the period. $$ KRV