RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051011
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Apr 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N24W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N24W to 00N40W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 24W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging that has dominated the basin much of last week is moving
E away from the region, and a cold front is exiting the Texas
coast early this morning. Decaying diurnal troughs are moving W
offshore the Florida and Yucatan peninsulas, with little sensible
weather impact. NE winds behind the cold front off TX are fresh,
otherwise mainly gentle E winds dominate, aside from moderate E
winds in the Florida Straits. Seas are 3 to 6 ft, and are likely
building behind the cold front. No convection is impacting the
basin early this morning, as activity associated with the cold
front is currently inland over the U.S. and Mexico.

For the forecast, the cold front will slowly cross the basin into
Tue, accompanied by scattered thunderstorms. Strong NE winds and
rough seas will develop behind the front across portions of the
western Gulf into Mon, then similar conditions will evolve over
the NE Gulf Tue through Thu. Near gale-conditions are possible
near Florida Wed and Wed night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds
offshore Colombia with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range. Elsewhere,
moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the
eastern and central basin, with gentle to moderate winds in the
west. Earlier convection in the SE Caribbean has waned overnight,
but some thunderstorms associated with a forming trough to the
north are noted within 90 nm of the southern coast of Dominican
Republic.

For the forecast, the Bermuda high will weaken some and slide east
today, allowing pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore
Colombia to end. A trough just north of Hispaniola will drift
west- northwestward toward the Bahamas through Tue. The gradient
between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh
trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate
winds elsewhere. Winds may increase again by late this week in
the south-central Caribbean as high pressure to the north
strengthens and builds southward.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure centered between the Azores and Bermuda is generally
dominating the entire basin. Where the pressure gradient between
it at the Colombian low is tightest, fresh to strong winds and
rough seas are present N of the Antilles to about 26N, between
South Florida and about 50W. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate
winds and moderate seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection
between Puerto Rico and the Bahamas in association a developing
low-pressure trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong E winds and rough
seas E of the Bahamas and N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will
gradually decrease into Mon as Bermuda high pressure moves E and
weakens. In the wake of the high, a cold front will move off the
SE U.S. coast early Mon, then slide slowly eastward through early
week. As it does, a westward moving inverted trough N of
Hispaniola will likely interact with the front and low pressure
may form as a result along the front in the vicinity of the
Bahamas. Any low that forms will track NE along the frontal
boundary, then N of the region Wed into Thu. The pressure gradient
between the low pressure and high pressure building in to the SE
U.S. will lead to widespread strong to near gale-force NE winds N
and W of the cold front Tue through late week, along with very
rough seas. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest
forecast and stay abreast for possible gale conditions developing
as early as Tue.

$$
Konarik