RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240841
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Mar 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 02N30W to 02S42W. Scattered moderate
convection from 02N to 04N east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

1020 mb high pressure is over the north-central Gulf near 27N90W.
A surface trough is along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula.
This pattern is supporting fresh NE winds and 3-5 ft seas off the
west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, and gentle to moderate
breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A couple of platforms in the
northwest Gulf have been indicated a modest visibility limitation
due to haze, but generally good visibility is observed elsewhere.

For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northeast Gulf
later today, followed by moderate NE winds through tonight. The
front will dissipate and weak high pressure will again build over
the northeast Gulf through mid week. A trough over the Bay of
Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and
western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through
the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move
into the northern Gulf Sat.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Weak 1013 mb low pressure is centered between northeast Nicaragua
and Jamaica, along a trough reaching from near Grand Cayman to
13N78W. Showers are likely active north of the low pressure
between eastern Honduras and Jamaica. High pressure is centered
north of the area, just east of the Bahamas. The gradient between
the high pressure and the low pressure is enhancing NE winds
across the Windward Passage, as confirmed by an evening
scatterometer satellite pass showing 20 to 25 kt in there. Seas
are likely 5-7 ft in the Windward Passage. Fresh to locally
strong Ne winds are also likely south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and
off Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3-5 ft seas are
noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the high pressure over the western Atlantic
centered E of the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong NE
winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south
of Hispaniola through tonight. A weakening stationary front
extending the central Atlantic through the U.S.V.I. will gradually
dissipate this morning. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to
rough seas will develop offshore Colombia today and persist
through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly
eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N48W to the northern Leeward
Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data shows mostly fresh
winds near the front north of 29N, where Sofar buoys confirm 8-11
ft combined seas mainly in NW swell. A broad ridge extends
westward to Florida from the front, supporting gentle to moderate
breezes and 4-6 ft seas. Over the eastern Atlantic, a 1005 mb low
pressure center persists south of the Canary Islands, supporting
fresh to strong N to NE winds and 8-10 ft seas north of 25N and
east of 30W. A broad ridge centered over the Azores extends across
the remainder of the area, supporting moderate NE to E winds and
4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front is forecast to move into
the central Atlantic through early Wed while gradually
dissipating. A new cold front is approaching from the north, and
will reach the waters between Bermuda and northeast Florida this
morning. Strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough
seas accompany the front, which will reach from Bermuda to Cape
Canaveral, Florida by this afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish
through Wed as the front stalls from 31N63W to east-central
Florida, then dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will persist
through Thu across the region. Looking ahead, another cold front
will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida on Sat,
followed by strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very
rough seas.

$$
Christensen