RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 231725
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N22W.
The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 02S45W. Numerous moderate and
isolated strong convection is south of 07N and east of 23W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports
moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the SW Gulf and Bay of
Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas
prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf
will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate
seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the
eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night
through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf of America
and also the W Atlantic N of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A cold
front and attendant frontal remnant trough extend from the Anegada
Passage into the central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer
satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NE winds through the
northern Caribbean passages as well as in the lee of both
Hispaniola and Cuba. Moderate seas prevail in these waters.
Moderate or weaker trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere
across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western
Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of
Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into
tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night, as the
high pressure moves slightly eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N51W to the U.S.V.I and Puerto Rico.
Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale
force SE winds north of 27N and east of the front to 46W, and
fresh to strong NW winds north of 27N and west of the front to
58W. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft north of 25N between 47W and
60W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic west of 50W, a
subtropical ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N70W is
sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1005 mb low pressure
centered SW of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NE
winds and rough to very rough seas north of 20N and east of 30W.
N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central
Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N50W to
the U.S.V.I. and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas follow the front over the waters north of 27N and east of 61W
this morning. The cold front is forecast to move into the central
Atlantic through early Wed while gradually dissipating. A new
cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between
northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue, followed by fresh
to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. These marine
conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N
into mid-week before the front stalls then lifts northward.

$$
Adams