RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
710 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 242344 RRA<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0015 UTC Fri Apr 25 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />2300 UTC.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and<br />extends to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 01N29W to 02S45W.<br />Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from the <br />equator to 07N between 10W and 25W. <br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /> <br />A 1021 mb high is centered near 29N84W, and ridging covers the <br />Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring <br />through the Florida Straits and offshore northwestern Cuba as a <br />strengthening pressure gradient develops between the high pressure<br />in the northeastern Gulf and prevailing low pressure over <br />northwestern Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh E to NE winds <br />are noted offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula, near the northern <br />periphery of a trough that spans the western peninsula. Otherwise,<br />moderate SE winds prevail over much of the Gulf, with locally <br />fresh SE winds occurring west of 93W. Seas of 3 to 6 ft are noted <br />over much of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas prevalent in the <br />northeastern Gulf. <br /><br />For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will dominate the Gulf<br />waters the remainder of the week into the upcoming weekend <br />supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. <br />Winds will pulse to fresh speeds over the east and central Bay of <br />Campeche due to local effects related to a thermal trough, and in <br />the Straits of Florida due to a 1028 mb high pressure located <br />over the Mid-Atlantic States.<br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA... <br /><br />A 1009 mb low is centered over northwestern Colombia, and ridging<br />extends through much of the basin, extending from widespread high<br />pressure to the north. This pattern is supporting fresh to <br />locally strong NE winds and seas near 5 to 6 ft just offshore of <br />northwestern Colombia, fresh NE winds through the Windward <br />Passage, and locally fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. <br />Elsewhere, a trough has been analyzed from 19N61W to 12N64W in the<br />far eastern Caribbean, supporting moderate to locally fresh E to <br />SE winds to the east of the trough axis, and gentle to moderate <br />winds to the west, along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Otherwise, <br />moderate trade winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail across the <br />remainder of the Caribbean.<br /><br />For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin combined with <br />the Colombian low will support fresh to locally strong trade winds<br />offshore Colombia at night into the weekend. At the same time, <br />pulsing moderate to locally fresh NE winds are expected in the <br />Windward Passage, and south of Cuba. Moderate or weaker winds and <br />slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere into early next <br />week. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A trough extends from 31N58W southwestward to 20N68W, north of <br />the Mona Passage, while high pressure prevails to the north. <br />Moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring to the north and west of <br />the trough axis including through the Bahamas and the Florida <br />Straits. Associated seas of 6 to 8 ft in NE swell are found north <br />of 20N and east of the Bahamas. To the east of the trough, <br />moderate to fresh SE to E winds, with localized strong winds, are <br />noted. Seas in this area range from 6 to 8 ft in mixed E and N <br />swell. Elsewhere, a broad ridge prevails across the Atlantic, <br />centered on a 1029 mb high near 36N37W. Recent scatterometer <br />satellite data show moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 6 <br />to 9 ft are occurring across the waters S of 30N between 25W and <br />55W. East of 25W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds, with <br />localized strong winds noted near the Cabo Verde Islands, are <br />occurring with seas of 5 to 8 ft. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between <br />the aforementioned trough and high pressure of 1028 mb located <br />over the Mid-Atlantic States will support fresh to locally strong <br />NE winds and rough seas N of 23N between 60W and 70W through Fri <br />as the trough remains nearly stationary. Winds should diminish by <br />the weekend as the pressure gradient relaxes. Looking ahead, a <br />cold front may move southward, between Florida and 65W, late <br />Sunday into Monday followed by moderate to fresh N to NE winds. <br /><br />$$<br />ADAMS