RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171747
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then reaches southwestward to 03N18W.
An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 03N18W through 01S30W
to near the Amazon River Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is near the ITCZ from 06S to 02N between 21W
and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near
the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to
fresh SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are see at the northwestern
Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas are noted at the
northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 3
to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly
weaken through Sat, maintaining gentle to moderate E to SE winds
across most of the Gulf through Sat. The exception will be off
the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a
locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to
strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N to NE winds
and building seas are going to follow a cold front moving across
the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of next week.
The front should stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by
late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The leading edge of a trade-wind surge is moving across the
eastern basin, while a pronounced upper-level trough also cuts
across the same general area from the Mona Passage through
Panama. Enhanced by dynamics and moisture related to the upper-
level trough, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring across the eastern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and
seas of 4 to 6 ft are present for the eastern basin. Gentle to
locally moderate NE to ENE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, the southern end of a broad surface trough
currently over the eastern tip of Cuba and near Jamaica will
drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat. This feature will
disrupt the typical weather pattern across the central and
western basin with a weaker than usual pressure gradient. This
weaker pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate
winds through midweek next week. Fresh NE winds may develop early
next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late-
season cold front moving into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough extends southward from near Bermuda across
31N69W to beyond the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Patchy
showers are present near and up to 150 nm west of the trough,
including the Bahamas. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section
at the beginning for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin.

A large 1023 mb high near 33N52W is providing light to gentle
winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in moderate N to ENE swell, north of
25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed swells prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the area
from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast
to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect
fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the
front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late
Mon, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

$$

Chan