RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

086
AXNT20 KNHC 021033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a
complex low pressure system in the NE Atlantic and a 1024 mb high
pressure over Libya results in fresh to near gale-force winds
between the Moroccan coast and Madeira. Winds are forecast to
strengthen to gale speeds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone
this morning starting at 02/12Z. Rough seas are currently
affecting the waters off Morocco and rough seas are expected to
develop with the gale-force winds. Winds are forecast to diminish
below gale late this afternoon around 02/21Z. However, strong to
near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue
to affect the waters off Morocco and the Canary Islands through
Sat. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ
extends from 06N21W to 04N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed from 03N to 09N and east of 42W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface high pressure of 1020 mb located over the E Gulf near
25N88W is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas E of
94W as well as generally dry conditions. The pressure gradient
between the ridge and low pressure over northern Texas supports
moderate to fresh south to southwest winds W of 94W where seas
are up to 5 ft.

For the forecast, light to gentle winds and slight seas will
prevail over the Gulf E of 94W through this morning as high
pressure remains over the SE Gulf. Fresh S to SW winds and
moderate seas will continue to develop over the NW Gulf today as a
warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving through
the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing the low
is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat morning, leading to
moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over
the basin in the wake of the front Sun into early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough, remnant of a frontal boundary extends across
Hispaniola and into the north-central Caribbean, supporting
isolated showers across the area. Surface ridging extending from a
1020 mb high over the E Gulf of America supports N to NE fresh winds
and moderate seas in the SW Caribbean as well as in the lee side
of southern Cuba and in the Windward Passage. Seas in these
waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to fresh trades are also ongoing over
the central and E Caribbean due to a broad ridge over the central
subtropical waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the western Caribbean, including through
the Windward Passage, through this evening as high pressure
continues to build over the Gulf of America. Moderate to fresh
trades are forecast for the central and eastern basin through Mon
morning due to a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
waters. Fresh trades will resume again Tue morning due to strong
high pressure forecast to build offshore the Carolinas. Moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere into
early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale
Warning for the Agadir region.

A former cold front has transitioned to a stationary front that
extends from 31N53W to 23N64W, which is supporting scattered heavy
showers within 120 nm either side of the boundary. Surface ridging
from high pressure over the Gulf of America is already extending
and building in the wake of the front. N of 29N, moderate to
locally fresh W winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing.
Moderate SW winds are also ahead of the front. In the far NE
Atlantic, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are occurring
north of 27N and east of 30W being generated by a pair of fronts.
Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft
are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will
transition back into a cold front later today and exit the area
tonight. Fresh westerlies W of the front and N of 29N will
diminish to moderate speeds this morning while rough seas within
these winds will subside through Sat morning. Looking ahead, fresh
to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected to develop
offshore of northern and central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold
front forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic Sat night.
Fresh N winds and locally rough seas are forecast behind the
front, expanding southeastward into early next week.

$$
Ramos