RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 080539
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Mar 8 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to
support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and
eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will
pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours tonight. Seas of
8 to 11 ft are expected with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues
from 01N23W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted south of 06N between 14W and 25W,
and S of 05N between 28W and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into
the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with
moderate seas across most of the Gulf waters, with fresh to strong
trades occurring through the Florida Straits confirmed by
scatterometer data. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of the northern
Gulf coast as a front slowly moves across the south- central
United States, as well as over parts of western Florida.

For the forecast, a weak cold front just inland over Texas will
move into the NW Gulf coastal waters Sun and stall before washing
out. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from
the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next
week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure
over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SW winds
basin- wide, pusling to between fresh and strong near the northern
Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker
winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate
through Wed. Another, but stronger cold front may impact the NW
Gulf Wed night, moving across the basin through Thu night with
increasing winds and seas behind it.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean,
with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern
Colombia. Recent scatterometer data confirmed fresh to strong
winds across the east and central Caribbean, in the Gulf of
Honduras, and also through the Windward Passage. Seas are in the 8
to 11 ft range in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft
elsewhere across the east and central parts of the basin. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the
Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the
Greater Antilles.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High
and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades
across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force
tonight. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the
Windward Passage and Gulf of Honduras for the remainder of the
weekend, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Large easterly trade-
wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas
near the Lesser Antilles through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1027 mb
high pressure located just W of Bermuda, and another 1027 mb high
pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near 35N21W. Fresh to
strong NE winds and rough seas are observed N of 20N and E of 20W.
Fresh to strong trades are also noted from 05N to 25N and W of
55W along the southern periphery of the ridge. Seas are 7 to 10 ft
with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds dominate the tropical
Atlantic E of 55W with moderate to rough seas, highest just E of
the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas
are noted across the remainder of the forecast waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 25N through mid-week, reaching strong north
of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will
prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold
front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and
slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu
night.

$$
Adams