RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141658
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Apr 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1658 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W, then
continues southward to 05N20W to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from
02N25W to 01.5S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of
03N between 17W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf region. Under the influence of this
system, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are
noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Similar
wind speeds are observed over the Yucatan Channel and the Bay of
Campeche. These winds are associated with a thermal trough.
Mainly moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas are observed
elsewhere, except in the far NE Gulf where light to gentle winds
and slight seas are occurring.

For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the
west- central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. This
pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly
moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of
the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to
moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse across
the southeast Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through this
evening, and off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front over the Atlantic located just N of Puerto Rico
and a trough are helping to induce scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the NE Caribbean, mainly N of 17N and E of
66W. High pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with
the Colombian low supports fresh to locally strong trades in the
south- central Caribbean where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Similar wind
speeds are found in the Lee of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and
just S of the Dominican Republic. Moderate to locally fresh winds
dominate the remainder of the basin. Seas are 6 to 8 ft downwind
of the Windward Passage, including between Haiti and Jamaica, and
5 to 7 ft in the Lee of Cuba. Moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic
combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally
strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean
and near the coast of Colombia through Wed night. Fresh to strong
northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in
the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Wed night as
well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning off
Morocco.

As previously mentioned, a stationary front is just N of Puerto
Rico generating scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms.
Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found near
and behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, with the exception
of light to gentle variable winds and 4 to 6 ft seas off NE and
central Florida. High pressure follows the front and extends a
ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of
America. E of the front, high pressure of 1027 mb located NW of
the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds up to 30 kt, and
seas up to 13 ft in long period NW swell prevail N of 20N and E
of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds and
moderate to rough seas dominate the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, thunderstorms will continue into
this afternoon along a stationary front that is weakening into a
surface trough just north of Puerto Rico. The trough will drift
west toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the southeastern Bahamas on
Thu. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the
trough, with conditions gradually improving toward the end of the
work- week as the trough weakens.

$$
KRV