RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0345 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 10N15W to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from that point to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection
is within 300 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends southwestward from central Florida to a 1016
mb low near 25N96W to near Veracruz, Mexico. Another cold front is
analyzed from the low to 19N96W. Fresh to strong northerly winds
are behind the fronts as noted in recent scatterometer satellite
data. Seas of 6 to 9 ft with these winds prevail. Moderate to
fresh northeast to east winds are east of the fronts, with seas
near 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from the Florida
Straits to southern Texas Mon night. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front
through Mon. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary will
gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the
eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate
or weaker trades to exist across the basin, with the except for
fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off the coast
of Colombia and within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles.
Seas are about 3 to 5 ft across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support
gentle to moderate winds over much of the forecast waters through
the week. Fresh to strong NE winds may develop Tue night and Wed
across the Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with
a late- season cold front moving across Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A late-season cold front has entered the western Atlantic,
analyzed from 31N78W to 29N81W. Fresh to strong NW winds prevail
along and W of the front, while light to moderate SW winds are
noted ahead of the front to 72W. Broad anticyclonic flow around a
high pressure ridge that extends from near 31N53W to 28N69W
dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with its
associated gradient bringing gentle to moderate trades across most
of the basin. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will continue to follow the front as it reaches from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon afternoon, and from
31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to
diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by
late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida
and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large N swell may linger
near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the
Windward Passage.

$$
ERA