RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032023 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Apr 3 2026

Corrected Gulf of America forecast

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N20W and continues to 01N42W. Scattered
moderate convection is S of 04N between 15W and 35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

With high pressure centered NE of the basin, moderate to fresh SE
winds dominate, along with seas of 3 to 6 ft. No significant
convection is ongoing.

For the forecast, high pressure over the region will begin to
retreat eastward Sat evening in response to a cold front that will
be approaching the Texas coast. The cold front will reach from
the southeastern United States to the central Gulf and to the
west- central Gulf Sun, then stall from S Florida to the central
Gulf and to the west-central Gulf from early next week into the mid-
week. Low pressure may develop along the western part of the front
during the weekend. Strong northeast winds are expected across
portions of the northern and western Gulf behind the front along
with rough seas. Moderate to fresh southeast winds will precede the
front, except in the Straits of Florida, where locally strong east
winds will prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the
Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong E to NE winds
offshore Colombia, south of Hispaniola and also in the Windward
Passage. Seas over these areas are in the 6-8 ft range. Moderate
to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Upper-
level divergence is yielding scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms in the NW basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue
to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia,
Cuba, Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage into Sat. The
high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward this weekend
allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to
diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will
develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon
through Tue, maintaining fresh trade winds across the eastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

High pressure N of the area extends a ridge across the entire
subtropical waters. The pressure gradient between the ridge and
the trough is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds across the
offshores N of the Greater Antilles, including the southern and
central Bahamas and the Windward Passage. Seas in this area are up
to 11 ft. Over the far E Atlantic, a surface trough extends from
26N22W to 22N29W, which is tightening the gradient of pressure
and supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds E of 35W,
including the Canary Islands. It is also now generating scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms N of 20N and E of 32W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between high
pressure located well north of the area and relatively lower
pressure to the south is allowing for generally strong northeast
to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of
26N. These conditions will gradually diminish through the weekend
as the high weakens while shifting eastward. An inverted surface
trough is forecast to develop from Hispaniola northward into the
open Atlantic by Sun night allowing for winds to weaken further. A
cold front is expected to emerge off the southeastern United
States coast early on Mon, then slowly move southeastward reaching
from near 31N70W to South Florida by Tue morning. Strong to near
gale-force northeast winds and seas building to a rough state are
expected behind this front.

$$
Adams