RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201701
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Mar 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1645 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: According to the latest Meteo-France
forecast, a gale warning for winds gusting to gale-frorce for
the high seas zones of the eastern portion of Irving, the western
portion of Madeira, Agadir and Tarfaya until 21/09 UTC. Please
refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated very
large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by
Meteo- France on the website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north
swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in
the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-21 ft through tonight,
subsiding to 12 to 16 ft on Sat, mainly N of the Cape Verde
Islands and east of about 38W. Seas over these northeastern
will gradually diminish in areal coverage with the remaining very
rough seas subsiding below 12 ft near the Canary Islands Mon.
Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 04N20W, where
it transitions to the ITCZ to 02N30W to 01N40W and to just inland
Brazil. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen
from 02N to 05N between 44W and to along the coast of Brazil.
Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ
between 25W-35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1023 mb high center is over the north-central Gulf near 29N88W,
with a ridge extending southwestward to the west-central Gulf.
The pressure gradient between this ridge and a stationary front
SE of the area is leading to fresh to locally strong northeast
winds across the SE Gulf, along with moderate to rough seas.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the central
Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida, through today. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern
Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal
trough. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and slight to
moderate seas will prevail through Tue night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the offshore
waters of northern Costa Rica. Isolated showers are ahead of the
front. Fresh to locally strong north winds are west of the front
per latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with these winds
are in the 4 to 6 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to
moderate east to southeast winds along with slight to moderate
seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to
the offshore waters of Costa Rica. Fresh to locally strong N
winds and moderate to rough seas will continue behind the front,
which is forecast to dissipate tonight over the SW Caribbean
offshore waters. Afterward, moderate to locally strong NE winds
will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of
Cuba and the Windward Passage through Sun as high pressure
develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As
the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and
moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Sun night
and prevail through Wed night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large
northerly swell that is impacting the far northeast waters of
the discussion area.

A stationary front is analyzed from a 1013 mb low just north of
the area near 32.5N63W southwestward to 31N66W and to a 1011 mb
low at 28N70W. It continues from the low south-southwestward to
eastern Cuba and into the Caribbean Sea. A broad mid to upper
trough is present to the west of the frontal boundary over the
western part of the area. Satellite imagery shows a large area of
moderate rain, with embedded scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms north of 24N between 60W and 68W. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are noted south of 27N between 71W and
76W. The pressure gradient between high pressure building eastward
in the wake of the front and the front is supporting fresh to
strong northerly winds over those water. Rough to very rough seas
are west of the front north and northeast of the Bahamas per
latest altimeter satellite data. The pressure difference between a
broad area of high pressure east of the front and the front is
sustaining fresh to strong southerly winds north of 22N between
61W and the front. Seas with these winds are in the range of 8 to
11 ft range.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front has past the Canary Islands.
It is analyzed from near 31N12W, south-southwestward to 24N16W,
to 22N20W, to 20N30W and to near 22N39W. Behind it, a dissipating
cold front extends from near 31N16W to 27N22W and to near 28N28W.
Aside from the Special Features information, strong to near gale
northerly winds along with rough to very rough seas are north of
about 10N and east of 45W. The rough seas in north swell reach
southward to near 12N and as far west as 57W.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either
side of the front north of 25N will continue to affect the offshore
waters from west to east through Sun as the front transitions back
to a cold front and shifts eastward. The front is expected to reach
the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the Mona Passage during the weekend.
A pre-frontal trough may approach the aforementioned areas. Expect
for increasing showers and thunderstorm activity to affect those
same areas during the weekend.

Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to move across the
waters east of northern Florida offshore waters Mon night into
Tue, followed by fresh to strong northeast to east winds and rough
seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the
waters north of 27N through the middle of the next week.

$$
Aguirre