RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221020
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea
is supporting gale-force NE winds that will prevail through this
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.
Rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 02N27W. The
ITCZ extends from 02N27W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 07N and E of 32W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida
Straits due to a dissipating stationary front.

For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building
seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may
bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night,
then near Veracruz on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a surface trough, and
associated area of moisture, has entered the eastern Caribbean
enhancing convection. A strong subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic supports moderate to strong easterly winds and rough
seas in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate
seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will prevail through early this
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.
The trough in the E Caribbean will continue moving W through the
week, increasing the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 30N72W to 23N80W. A few showers
are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated
by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh
to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas south of 27N and
east of 75W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south
of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of
75W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and
divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east
of 47W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue
to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of
75W through today. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will
continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida through this morning. The next cold
front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front,
fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of
75W.

$$
ERA