RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 180319
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 05N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 00N35W and to 01S49W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 03N
and west of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A subtropical ridge centered between the United States and Bermuda
extends to the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh
southerly winds over the western Gulf waters and moderate seas.
Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are
noted north and west of the Yucatan peninsula. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a high pressure ridge extends from the western
Atlantic to the central Gulf. The combination of the ridge and
broad low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico associated with
a trough will lead to a tightening of the pressure gradient over
the western and central Gulf waters starting tonight causing
moderate to fresh south return flow over those waters through
early Fri evening. Looking ahead, that low pressure will pull a
cold front over the NW Gulf on Sat afternoon, followed by fresh to
near gale north to northeast winds expected Sat night through Sun
night. Gale conditions are possible offshore Tampico on Sun and
offshore Veracruz Sun afternoon and Sun night. Mariners are urged
to stay up to data with the latest forecasts.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of
the Caribbean and lower pressures in NW South America sustain
strong to near gale-force NE winds off NW Colombia and the Gulf
of Venezuela. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer
satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. Moderate to
fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found in the
north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate
to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in
the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers are affecting
the Leeward Islands, SE Hispaniola and Jamaica.

For the forecast, the combination of Atlantic high pressure and
relatively lower pressure in northern South America will continue
to result in fresh to strong northeast to east trades in the
south-central Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds
may pulse to near gale-force off Colombia at night on Fri and
Sat. Fresh northeast winds will pulse in the Windward Passage
through Thu. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to
pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through
Sat night, while trades elsewhere will generally remain moderate
to fresh. Additionally, large north swell is expected to impact
the tropical N Atlantic waters and the Anegada/Mona Passages
beginning on Thu and likely subsiding on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a hurricane-force extratropical low well
south of Newfoundland, enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N55W
and continues southwestward to 26N63W, where it becomes a
stationary front to the NW Bahamas. Numerous moderate to isolated
strong convection is noted ahead of the cold front to 51W and
north of 24N. Moderate to locally fresh winds and rough seas are
found behind these frontal boundaries. Moderate to fresh SW winds
and moderate to rough seas are evident ahead of the cold front to
49W and north of 27W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
subtropical ridge supporting moderate to fresh NE-E winds and
moderate to rough seas south and east of a line from 31N25W to
the Leeward Islands. The strongest winds and highest seas are
found in the deep tropics near 07N45W. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds and moderate seas are present. Saharan dust is evident in
the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N59W
to the N Bahamas this morning will move from 28N55W to the
central Bahamas Wed morning, then dissipate by Thu. Fresh to
strong SW winds ahead of the cold front north of 29N will pull
north of our waters by this evening. In the wake of the front,
large to very large N swell will occur with 12 ft or greater seas
sliding eastward north of 28N through Wed night. 8 ft seas will
progress equatorward reaching 20N by Thu before diminishing on
Fri. Winds will become quiescent over forecast waters from Wed
through Sat, as a high pressure ridge settles in along 27N.
Looking ahead, a strong cold front should emerge from the SE
United States coast on Sun, followed by increasing NW winds and
building seas.

$$
Delgado