RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170447
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Mar 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0430 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
27N82W to 18N94W. Gale force winds are expected across the
coastal waters E of Veracruz Mexico through tonight. Seas will
peak between 15 and 18 ft with the strongest winds. Both winds
and seas should gradually subside through Tue as the front moves E
away from the area.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at websites
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 03N20W across 02N33W to the coast of Brazil
near 01N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 130 nm
on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a Gale Warning.

Outside of the winds and seas following the front as described
above in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SW
winds and moderate seas are noted ahead of the front. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is active ahead of the front,
currently moving across southern Florida peninsula and Straits of
Florida.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward,
and reach from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula by
early Tue morning. At the western Bay of Campeche,
especially off Veracruz, near-gale to gale-force NW to N winds are
present. These trends will continue until midnight tonight, then
winds across the locations mentioned above should begin to
subside. For the southeastern Gulf by midnight, moderate southerly
winds will shift to the NW and become fresh to locally strong as
the front passes through the area on its way to the Great Bahama
Bank and northwestern Caribbean. Rough to very rough seas behind
the front will gradually subside from north to south by early Tue
morning. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across
the region and prevail into the weekend.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Recent scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong E
winds across the eastern Caribbean, where associated combined
seas are 8-10 ft. These winds are supported by strong high
pressure over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and 4-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. A few
thunderstorms are noted off western Cuba and the Yucatan ahead of
the Gulf's cold front.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas
across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and
central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages
will prevail through Wed. On Tue morning, a cold front is
expected to enter the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of
America. Then, it will slow down and possibly stall from western
Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning while
dissipating. This should decrease the influence from the ridge and
allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to
gradually subside through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A line of showers and thunderstorms prevail across the W Atlantic
ahead of an approaching cold front analyzed from 31N80W to 29N81W.
Strong to near-gale S to SW winds are noted west of 72W to the
northeast Florida coast, where seas are 8-10 ft. A broad ridge
extends across the remainder of basin anchored by 1042 mb high
pressure centered near 43N49W. Fresh to strong easterly winds and
8-10 ft over the remainder of the area west of 39W, and gentle to
moderate N to NE winds and 5-7 ft seas east of 39W.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds
behind the front, and SE to S winds at similar speeds ahead of the
front along with rough seas will shift eastward with the front
through Wed morning. By Wed afternoon, the front will stall from
near Bermuda to the central Bahamas while weakening. This should
allow winds and seas north of 26N to gradually decrease during the
second half of the week. In response to this front, fresh to
strong E to SE winds and rough seas currently from 18N to 25N,
including the central and southeast Bahamas should slowly subside
Wed afternoon through Thu morning.

$$
ERA