RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171030
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Dec 17 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure is forecast to
develop Wed night near 29N59W, along the stationary front that
currently extends from 29N55W southwestward through the SE
Bahamas, then across east central Cuba. Gale force winds are
expected to begin across the W semicircle of the low center
early Thu morning then increase to 40 kt Thu evening and night as
the low moves E-NE. The low is then expected to move NE on Fri,
and lift N of 31N and the forecast area. Peak seas are expected to
build to 15-18 ft Thu night, with a large area of seas 12 ft and
higher from 27.5N between 54W and 60W by Thu night. Please read
the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane
Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml
for more information this event.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W and
continues westward to 05.5N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N23W to
04N36W to 03.5N50W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated
strong convection is seen from 01N to 07N between 11W and 38W.
Isolated moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 50W
and 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough continues over the western Gulf N of 20N and
inland across SE Texas, and is supporting scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms north of 24N, and west of 91W. Elsewhere,
a 1027 mb high pressure just NW of Bermuda extends a ridge
westward into the southeastern U.S. and is controlling the low
level wind flow across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds
are across the SE Gulf, and strongest through the Straits of
Florida and along the NW coast of Cuba due to a diffuse surface
trough across the NW Caribbean. Seas are 5 to 9 ft across these
waters, highest in the Florida Current. Moderate to fresh SE winds
prevail over the western Gulf where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin.

For the forecast, fresh E winds and rough seas prevail across the
SE Gulf waters, including the Straits of Florida, and will
gradually decrease today. A ridge along about 32N will dominate
the Gulf region through Thu, with winds veering to the S and SW
ahead of the next cold front, forecast to move into the NW Gulf
Thu evening. This front will reach from SW Florida to NE Mexico
Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through
Sat. High pressure will move into the NE Gulf Sat night and Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is analyzed offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica and
extends into the waters off the NE coast of Honduras. Scattered
moderate convection is noted across these waters and extends
inland. Gentle to moderate NE winds generally prevail across the
basin S of 20N and west of 80W, where seas are 3 to 5 ft.

A stalled frontal system just N of the basin and into est central
Cuba has produced a slightly weaker than normal pressure gradient
across the basin, with moderate to fresh winds in the central
Caribbean, locally strong winds are offshore northern Colombia,
with 1009 mb low pressure near the coast. Moderate to fresh trades
prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-8 ft in the
S-central portion, and 4-6 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate
to rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean
through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the western
Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic
waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of
the basin through Thu night. High pressure will strengthen north
of the basin Thu night into the weekend to bring a return to fresh
to strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on a
developing Gale Warning in the Southwest N Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N50W southwestward through the
SE Bahamas, then extends westward across east central Cuba. Fresh
to strong NE winds are noted S of 29N to along the front, with
moderate to fresh winds elsewhere NW of the front. Recent buoy and
altimeter data indicate seas of 8-14 ft in NW-N swell to the north
of the front to 77W, with 3-5 ft seas offshore northern Florida.
Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 300 nm N
of the front and E of 70W. A broad ridge centered on a 1027 mb
Bermuda High prevails along 34N, to the north of the front. To the
east, a 1030 mb high pressure is noted N of the eastern Atlantic
waters near 32N25W with a ridge reaching SW of the high and ahead
of the front to 26N53W. The tight pressure gradient between the
ridge and the ITCZ supports a large area and broad fetch of fresh
to strong E winds south of 23N and E of the Lesser Antilles, with
resultant seas of 8-13 ft. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of
31N and through the Canary Islands to the E of 20W, supporting
seas of 8-16 ft. Refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast
listed on their website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more
details. Mainly moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas are across the
remainder of the waters which is primarily between the front and
the ridge axis.

For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from
29N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends
westward across east central Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds
prevail north of the front to about 29N. The front and these winds
will generally persist through this evening before diminishing W
of 65W. Large NW to N swell will continue to move through the
regional waters through tonight before subsiding from NW to SE
through Thu. Frontal remnants are expected to continue across the
NE zones through tonight, when low pressure is forecast to develop
along the boundary, near 29N60W. Gale force winds are expected to
develop across the W semicircle of the low center Thu through
early Fri as the low moves E-NE and deepens, before gradually
exiting the forecast area Fri night. The next cold front will move
into the NW waters Fri, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of
Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the
central Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front may move off NE
Florida by Sun night.

$$
Stripling