RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021031
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0900 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to
support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very
rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW
Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force
over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas
currently over the waters from 09N to 23N between 33W and 52W.
The seas, currently peaking near 12 ft will gradually subside from
east to west through Tue night while rough seas to 10 ft are
forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles late on Sun.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W.
Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 360 nm
on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The tail of a weakening stationary front extends across the
Straits of Florida to the SE Gulf near 25N87W while a broad
surface ridge prevails elsewhere. Winds N of 23N are moderate to
locally fresh from the E to SE over the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly
slight to 3 ft basin-wide.

For the forecast, the tail of the weakening stationary front will
dissipate over the SE Gulf today. Afterward, an expansive area of
strong high pressure will build WSW from the central N Atlantic
and hold through the weekend. Its related pressure gradient will
support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf. Locally
strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan
Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in the south-central Caribbean.

Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and
also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus
supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the
eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in
the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are
moderate, except rough offshore Colombia and slight seas over the
NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic
will support fresh to near gale-force trades and moderate to
rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri
night. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds
off Colombia at night beginning tonight and continuing through at
least Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will also begin in the
Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba this evening and will
continue through Fri. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong E
winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat.
Otherwise, rough to very rough seas in mixed NE to E swell over
the tropical N Atlantic will subside on Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for information on a significant
swell event.

A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical
waters continue to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all
the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N.
Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak
stationary front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the front
and a pre-frontal trough to about 60W. Moderate NE winds and seas
follow the front.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken
further as it slowly moves southeastward before becoming diffuse
tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
prevail over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas will
continue over the southeastern waters. Fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast behind the
remnants of the aforementioned front through Tue night north of
27N. An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across
the north-central Atlantic by the middle of the week resulting in
moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.

$$
Ramos