RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051753
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 06N22W. The ITCZ
stretches from 06N22W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is
observed south of 12N and between 10W and 42W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres near Destin, FL to
near Veracruz, Mexico. Scattered moderate convection follows the
front generally N of 27N and E of 92W. Moderate to fresh N to NW
winds and seas of 5-9 ft are behind the cold front. Ahead of the
front, moderate to locally fresh S winds and 3-5 ft seas are
observed. In the Bay of Campeche, a pair of surface troughs are
leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms forming
near both trough axes.

For the forecast, a cold front extends from a 1013 mb low pres
near Destin, Florida to 26N93W to Veracruz, Mexico this morning,
with scattered showers noted along the front. Fresh to strong N
winds and rough seas will prevail across the western Gulf behind
the front into this afternoon before winds and seas begin to
diminish. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over
the basin this evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front
is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep
over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N
to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force
NW-N winds may develop off Veracruz Mon afternoon. Winds and seas
will diminish Tue into Wed.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to locally
strong trades in the central and eastern Caribbean, along with 5-7
ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds and 2-5 ft seas
prevail across western portions of the Caribbean. A weak upper
level trough and pockets of enhanced moisture in the central
Caribbean are also leading to scattered moderate convection
occurring in a region from 13N to 17N between 72W and 80W.

For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between weak high
pressure centered north of the Greater Antilles and lower
pressures in northern South America will sustain moderate to fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and
eastern Caribbean through the middle of next week. Moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere.
A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas in the Atlantic
passages of the Lesser Antilles through the forecast period.
Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern
Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough is analyzed from 31N52W to near 23N64W. Scattered
moderate convection is seen along the trough axis from 27N56W
northeastward. Scatterometer data indicates fresh to locally
strong SW winds and 6-9 ft seas ahead of this feature generally N
of 27N and W of 45W. Another trough follows and extends from
31N55W to near 26N70W. A shift from gentle S winds south of this
trough to moderate to fresh N winds north of the trough is
observed in scatterometer data. To the west, a 1018 mb low near
29N67W extends another frontal remnant trough southwestward
through the Bahamas and Florida Straits. No significant convection
or wind shifts are observed with this feature. Off the east coast
of FL and north of the Bahamas, a 1015 mb low is driving moderate
to fresh S winds ahead of an approaching frontal boundary.

In the east Atlantic, an upper level low over the Canary Islands
embedded within a broad upper level trough is leading to the
development of scattered moderate convection between 12N and 20N
and E of 30W, with widely scattered showers also observed N of 20N
and E of 30W. Outside of convection, a surface ridging pattern is
prevalent across the Atlantic, resulting in moderate to fresh
trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the basin S of 20N, as well
as areas N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail across much of the remainder of the Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal trough extending from
just SE of Bermuda to 26N70W is expected to move eastward across
the central Atlantic today through Sat, leading to fresh winds and
rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through tonight.
Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong SW winds and moderate seas will
develop off NE Florida today ahead of the next cold front that
will enter the area tonight. These winds and seas will push
quickly eastward Sat into Sat night. The front will extend from
near Bermuda to central Florida Sun morning and dissipate Sun
night. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong
cold front will move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by
early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and
building seas ahead of and behind the front.

$$
Adams