RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

543
AXNT20 KNHC 011750
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Mar 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge over the
central Atlantic will support strong to near gale-force easterly
trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean during
the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate
pulsing rounds of gale-force winds offshore NW Colombia at night,
starting tonight and continuing through at least next weekend.
Locally very rough seas are expected with these winds.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high
pressure of 1033 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N38W is
maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and
central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will
continue to generate seas of 8 to 14 ft across most of the waters
between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 50W. This swell event
will persist through early next week.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed
south of a line running from the coastal border of Guinea and
Sierra Leone to near 00N50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends across the SE Gulf waters,
producing a few showers ahead of this boundary. The weak pressure
gradient across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds and
slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, a nearly stationary front extends from near
Naples, Florida southwestward to 24N87W. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are along and south of the front between 83W and
87W. This activity will continue southeastward across the far SE
Gulf this morning. The stationary front will transition to a
weakening cold front this morning, slowly move southeastward and
exit the basin while becoming diffuse. Afterward, a strong high
pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from
the N Atlantic beginning tonight, with the related gradient
generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds
across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the
northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extends a ridge into
the Caribbean Sea, supporting fresh to strong trades and moderate
seas across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Rough seas
are analyzed in the south-central basin offshore Colombia.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and
moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean
through the forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient will
initiate gale-force winds off Colombia beginning tonight and
through the week leading to locally very rough seas. Fresh to
strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting
late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the
tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12
ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with
moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from 31N71W to SE Florida. To
the south, a pre-frontal trough is analyzed from south to north
across the central and southern Bahamas. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 24N between 65W and 80W. A
strong high pressure of 1034 mb situated SW of the Azores near
33N40W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic
forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong E
winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic,
particularly E of 60W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE
winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the
ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, a weak cold front extends
southwestward from near 31N71W to 27N76W and to the South Florida
region while a trough extends from 27.5N74W to the central Bahamas
and to near eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms are evident from 24N to 29N between 72W and 79W and
north of 27N between 66W and 72W. A shortwave trough aloft
shifting east-southeastward over the waters between the Bahamas
and Florida is helping to sustain these showers and thunderstorms.
The front will weaken further as it slowly moves southeastward
reaching from near 31N67W to 28N70W and stationary front to the
near the Florida Keys tonight, and from near 31N62W to the central
Bahamas early on Mon as it becomes diffuse. Elsewhere, high
pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control
over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over
the southeastern waters. Another cold front is expected to enter
the northern waters during the early part of the week and
gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force
easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13
ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of
27N. An expansive area of high pressure will build across the
north- central Atlantic by the middle of the upcoming week
resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of
the basin.

$$
Adams