RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

947
AXNT20 KNHC 191600
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1540 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from the
Florida Panhandle to 1017 mb low pressure near 26N96W to near
Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near-gale force NE to N winds, with
frequent gusts to gale force, are northwest of the frontal
boundary. Seas currently range from 5-8 ft along and behind the
cold front. Conditions are forecast to improve tonight as the
front weakens.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07N11W to 03N17W. The ITCZ then
continues from 03N17W to 02S46W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is along the coast of Brazil, from 03S to 05N
between 32W and 52W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING and the associated cold front.

Ahead of the front, gentle to moderate E to NE winds prevail with
3-5 ft seas. A surface trough analyzed in the Bay of Campeche may
cause winds to locally pulse to fresh to strong speeds.

For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to
rough seas will follow the cold front as it moves southward across
the northern Gulf through Mon. The front is then expected to
stall from the Florida Straits to southern Texas Mon night. On
Tue, the western portion of this boundary will gradually dissipate
over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern portion will
resume moving southward into Cuba and the Yucatan Channel. In the
wake of the front, gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will
return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Moderate or weaker trades prevail across the Caribbean waters,
with locally fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean
off the coast of Colombia, the southern tip of Hispaniola, and
within Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are 3-5 ft
across the basin, with locally higher seas within Atlantic
Passages in the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through Tue. Fresh to
strong NE winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the Windward
Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late-season cold
front moving across Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak surface trough is across the western Bahamas and eastern
Straits of Florida. High pressure centered along 31N dominates the
remainder of the tropical Atlantic, providing for gentle to
moderate trades across the waters. Seas are 4-7 ft in open waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the
northeast Florida coast this afternoon. Fresh to strong N to NE
winds and rough seas will follow the front as it reaches from
Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon afternoon, and from
31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will begin to
diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along 22N by
late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast Florida
and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large N swell may linger
near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters near the
Windward Passage.

$$
Mahoney