RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 020610
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Aug 2 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is near 62W from 22N southward across the Lesser
Antilles to northeastern Venezuela. It is moving west near 15 kt.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and
northeast of the Virgin Islands to near 23N.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from 20N southward,
and moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
inland over western Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W from near the Island
of Youth southward across Honduras, Nicaragua and It is moving
west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and tstorms are inland
across Nicaragua and NE Honduras.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Mauritania coast
near Nouakchott, then curves southwestward across 13N20W to
08N30W. An ITCZ continues westward from 08N30W to 07N50W.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and south of the
monsoon trough from 07N to 09N between 30W and the Guinea-
Bissau/Sierra Leone. Widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms are found up to 150 nm along either side of the
ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean
waters near western Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A diurnal surface trough is causing scattered heavy showers and
isolated strong thunderstorms at the southeastern Bay Campeche. A
surface trough over Florida is triggering similar convection near
Naples, Florida. Otherwise, a modest 1020 mb high over the east-
central and southeastern Gulf is promoting light to gentle winds
and seas of 1 to 3 ft for most of the Gulf, except gentle to
moderate NE to ENE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft for waters near the
Yucatan and north coast of Cuba.

For the forecast, modest high pressure will dominate the basin
through the forecast period, supporting mostly gentle to moderate
winds and slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase across the northern Gulf
this weekend into Mon as a weak low pressure develops in the
vicinity of SE Louisiana, along a stalling frontal boundary.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Convergent trades are producing widely scattered showers near the
lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Refer to the Tropical Waves and
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections for additional weather in the
Caribbean Sea. A 1027 mb high near 29N53W continue to channel
trade winds across much of the basin. Fresh to strong ENE to E
winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft are present at the south-central
basin. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are
noted at the north-central and part of the southwestern basin.
Gentle to moderate NE to E winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail
for the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the 1027 mb high
and the Colombia low will continue to allow for fresh to strong
winds and rough seas over the south-central basin through Wed
night. The strongest winds will occur off the coast of Colombia,
occasionally pulsing to near gale-force at night. Moderate to
fresh trades will prevail over the eastern basin while moderate
or weaker winds are forecast for the northwestern basin.
Otherwise, a tropical wave accompanied by scattered showers and
thunderstorms, currently moving across the Lesser Antilles, will
move across the eastern basin on Sat, the central basin Sat night
into Sun and across the southwestern basin Sun night into Mon.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The tail end of a surface trough originated from the north-central
Atlantic is creating widely scattered moderate convection north of
28N between 41W and 48W. Otherwise, a large dome of 1027 mb high
near 29N53W is supporting light to gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas
north of 26N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast,
except gentle to moderate NE winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft north of
26N between 35W and 40W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE to ESE
winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft are present from 12N to 26N between
35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles. Mainly gentle E to SE winds
and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Atlantic Basin west
of 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate the
weather pattern through midweek next week, supporting a gentle to
moderate anticyclonic flow and slight to moderate seas across the
western Atlantic. The pressure gradient between a tropical wave
currently moving across the Lesser Antilles and the 1027 mb high
will support an area of fresh to locally strong E to SE winds
with moderate to rough seas that will move north of the Leeward
Islands and Puerto Rico through Sat, and north of Hispaniola Sat
night into Sun. Winds and seas will diminish Sun as the high
pressure weakens.

$$

Chan