RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300820
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0820 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Strong gale force winds to
45 kt are off Veracruz, Mexico, where very rough seas to 18 ft are
noted. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas
will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late today.
Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz today. Conditions will
improve from north to south by midweek.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a
storm- force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters
near 31N35W and extends 18.5N53W, where it becomes a stationary
front that extends northwestward toward the Bahamas. Large N swell
generated from this system is producing very rough seas greater
than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 23N between 35W and
58W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually
subsiding from south to north through the week. Rough seas greater
than 8 ft cover the waters N of 18N between 35W and 65W.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues
to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 05N37W to 00N49W.
Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ/monsoon
trough between 20W and 49W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section above about a gale
warning in the SW Gulf.

A strong cold front extends from south Florida to the Bay of
Campeche. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds
are N of the front and E of 90W, with strong to near gale winds N
of the front W of 90W. SE of the front, gentle to moderate winds
prevail. Rough to very rough seas prevail behind the front with
slight seas ahead of the front.

For the forecast, the front will shift SE of the basin today.
Gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz and the
western Bay of Campeche are expected through late today. Elsewhere
behind the front, widespread fresh to strong winds and rough seas
are expected. Winds and seas will slowly diminish from north to
south today into early Wed. High pressure will build over the
northern Gulf around midweek, with moderate or weaker winds and
slight seas over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail over the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft
are in the north central Caribbean. Elsewhere winds are moderate
or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds will prevail over the central
Caribbean into early Wed, pulsing to strong speeds in the south-
central Caribbean. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of
the strongest winds. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N
swell are expected through late Thu before seas subside. A cold
front will enter the northwestern Caribbean today, with fresh to
locally strong N winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the
front, including through the Yucatan Channel. The front will
weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by
late week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section above for details on a
significant swell event in the central Atlantic.

Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a cold front
extends from 31N74W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds are N
of 29N and E of the front to 55W, with fresh to strong winds W of
the front. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. A 1018
mb high is centered near 26N58W. Light to gentle winds are in the
vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8
ft prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, very rough seas in N swell north of
25N and east of 58W will shift east of 55W this morning.
Widespread rough seas east of 65W will subside from west to east
through midweek. A cold front over the NW waters will progress
eastward through midweek, with fresh to strong SW winds likely
ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong NW winds following
the front. Rough seas associated with the front are expected
north of 28N, with seas subsiding from west to east through
midweek. The next cold front is forecast to move off the SE coast
of the United States late this week, with increasing winds and
building seas likely near and behind the front.

$$
AL