RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 192326
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Apr 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from 07N11W southwestward to
03N17W, where it transitions to 00N30W to 01S47W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm south of
the ITCZ between 23W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within
180 nm south of the ITCZ between 31W-35W and within 60 nm north
of the ITCZ between 33W-38W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A late-season cold front extends from north-central Florida
southwestward to 27N88W and to a weak 1018 mb low at 25N96W.
A cold front extends from the low south-southwestward to inland
Mexico just south of Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to strong north-
northeast winds are behind the front as noted in recent
scatterometer satellite data. Seas of 6 to 9 ft with these winds are
indicated in buoy data, and also confirmed by altimeter satellite
data. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are east of the
front. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. A surface trough is
analyzed in the central Bay of Campeche. Fresh northeast winds over
the Bay of Campeche are somewhat supported by the trough. Seas there
are 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast winds
and moderate to rough seas will follow the cold front as it moves
southward across the northern Gulf through Mon. The front is
then expected to stall from the Straits of Florida to South
Texas Mon night. On Tue, the western portion of this boundary
will gradually dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while
the eastern portion will resume moving southward into Cuba and
the Yucatan Channel. In the wake of the front, gentle to moderate
southeasterly winds will return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A fairly weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for moderate
or weaker trades to exist across the basin, with the except for
locally fresh trades possible in the south-central Caribbean off the
coast of Colombia, along the southern tip of Hispaniola, and within
Atlantic Passages in the Lesser Antilles. Seas are about 3 to 5 ft
across the basin, with locally higher seas in the Atlantic Passages
of the Lesser Antilles.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over some of the
interior sections of central Cuba. Isolated showers and
thunderstorms are just inland the eastern tip of eastern Cuba, and
along and just inland and offshore the southern coast of Jamaica.

For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will
support mainly gentle to moderate winds through Tue. Fresh to
strong northeast winds may develop Tue night and Wed across the
Windward Passage and at the lee of Cuba associated with a late-
season cold front moving across Cuba.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A late-season cold front has just emerged along the coast of
northeast Florida. It extends southwestward across north-central
Florida and to the Gulf of America. Light northwest winds are
behind the front along with seas of 3 to 4 ft. A pre-frontal
trough extends from near 31N77.5W to near Daytona Beach. An area
of isolated showers and thunderstorms is located from 26N to 28N
and west 75W to inland South Florida. Similar activity is seen from
24N to 27N between 71W and 75W. Broad anticyclonic flow around a
high pressure ridge that extends from near 31N53W to 28N69W
dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic, with its
associated gradient bringing gentle to moderate trades across most
of the basin. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, winds behind the aforementioned late-
season cold front will become fresh to strong, north to northeast in
direction tonight. Rough seas will follow the front as it reaches
from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by late Mon afternoon,
and from near 31N60W to central Cuba by Tue afternoon. Winds will
begin to diminish Tue night as the front stalls and dissipates along
22N by late Wed. High pressure will settle in between northeast
Florida and Bermuda in the wake of the front. Large north swell may
linger near the dissipating front Wed into Thu, including waters
near the Windward Passage.

$$
Aguirre