RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 021818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Meteo-France Gale Warning East of 35W:
The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system
north of Madeira and a 1024 mb high pressure over Libya results
in strong to gale-force winds in the Meteo-France Agadir High Seas
Marine Zone through 02/21Z. Refer to the Meteo-France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more
details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. An
ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 08N15W through 05N25W to
04N42W. Scattered showers are observed near the ITCZ from 03N to
09N and east of 43W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms at the Caribbean
waters near eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1018 mb high located at the southeastern Gulf continues to
dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SW winds and 4 to 6
ft are noted at the northwestern and west-central Gulf. Light to
gentle winds with 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas at
the northwestern Gulf are expected to expand eastward into the
northeastern Gulf tonight, as a warm front associated with a low
pressure system lifts northward. Briefly strong SW winds will be
possible on Sat. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Sat
afternoon and progress into the central Gulf through Sun,
supporting moderate to locally fresh N winds in the wake of the
front. High pressure will settle over the Gulf early next week,
leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough curves northeastward from north of Colombia to
beyond the Windward Passenger. Convergent winds near and east of
this feature are causing widely scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms south and east of Jamaica, and over and south of
Puerto Rico. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NNE
to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the central and
southwestern Gulf, and also at the lee of Cuba, and near the
Windward Passenger. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 4
ft seas exist elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, N to NE winds occurring west of 75W will
diminish through this evening. Moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds are expected over the central basin into early Mon as
a broad subtropical ridge prevails to the north. Winds may pulse
to strong at times in the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore of
northern Colombia through Sat evening. Looking ahead, fresh NE
winds may develop through the Atlantic passages near the Greater
Antilles early next week as high pressure builds to the north.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section at the beginning on a Meteo-
France Gale Warning.

A stationary front extends southwestward from the north-central
Atlantic across 31N54W to 23N66W. Scattered heavy showers with
isolated strong thunderstorms are occurring near and up to 175 nm
southeast of this boundary. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Gentle to moderate with locally fresh S to SW to NW winds and 6 to
8 ft seas in moderate NW swell are seen north of 24N and west of
43W. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in
moderate NW swell exist from 20N to 24N west of 43W. North of 20N
between 35W and 43W, light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
in large NW swell are found. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate
with locally fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in
moderate to large swells are evident. For the remainder of the
Atlantic Ocean west of 35W, gentle E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are present.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh W winds
are expected north of 29N through Sat morning as a low pressure
system emerges off the coast of the Mid Atlantic states and moves
eastward. Residual rough seas in NW swell occurring north of 29N
between 72W and 55W will subside through Sat morning. Fresh to
strong SW winds will develop over the northwestern tropical
Atlantic on Sat ahead of a low pressure system moving through the
southeastern U.S. Localized winds near-gale force will be possible
offshore of northern Florida Sat night, and rough seas are
expected near and to the east of these winds. A cold front is
slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. Sat night into
Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting
fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and
fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake
of the front. Looking ahead, high pressure will build north of the
region early next week.

$$

Chan