RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131026
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warnings:
MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and
CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through
13/21Z, and for Canarias, the warning is valid through 14/00Z.
Please visit website:
wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W and extends
to 04.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N16W to 04N25W to
00N32W to 01N42W to 00N48W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate
to strong convection is occurring from 02.5N to 08N east of 29W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 34W
and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Mexico from the
western Bay of Campeche to 22.5N98W, and locally fresh E to NE
winds noted over the eastern Bay through the Campeche Bank.
Scattered showers have developed in recent hours across NW and
north-central portions of the Gulf. A 1022 mb high centered over
northern Florida extends ridging westward through the Gulf,
supporting moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin.
Locally fresh E to NE winds, observed on recent scatterometer
data, are noted through the Florida Straits as a moderate pressure
gradient prevails between the ridge and a surface trough over the
northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 2 ft are observed over the
northern and northeastern basin via recent buoy data, with 3 to 4
ft seas noted in the southern and western Gulf.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida
and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW
Atlantic through Sat night to produce moderate to occasionally
fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of
the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter
the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds
and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach
the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south
of the basin Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary extend from central Cuba
W-SW to the central Yucatan, with scattered showers noted on
either side of the trough extending southward into the Gulf of
Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted
along the monsoon trough across the extreme southwestern basin
and is impacting coastal sections of Colombia, Panama and
Nicaragua. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds prevail over
most of the the Caribbean east of 80W, as a modest pressure
gradient prevails between a 1007 mb low over the south- central
Caribbean and ridging to the north. Recent scatterometer satellite
data show ongoing strong winds in the south-central basin, with
winds locally to 30 kt noted in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 8
to 10 ft are occurring in the central and west-central basin to
the west of the strongest winds, with 6 to 7 ft seas noted in the
eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the northwestern basin.
Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 11 ft
seas, as noted via recent altimeter data, prevail over the
tropical Atlantic waters west of 55W and through the eastern
Caribbean passages.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough
seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning
due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a
modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force
at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to
locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will
prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages
and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold
front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by
increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is
expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then
will begin to stall and weaken through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section above for more information
about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N56W through the SE Bahamas and
into central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted near
and ahead of the cold front, north of 24N between 53W and 73W.
Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted via
scatterometer data ahead of the front north of 30N, while gentle
to moderate winds prevail to the north of the front. NW swell
behind the front is supporting 8 to 10 ft seas north of 28N
between 50W and 60W. Farther west, a 1022 mb high centered near
30N77W extends ridging over the northwest tropical Atlantic behind
the front. The pressure gradient between this high and the
aforementioned stationary front is supporting moderate to locally
fresh NE to E winds north of the Lesser Antilles and through the
Bahamas. Elsewhere, a 1032 mb Azores high is centered near 35N28W.
The pressure gradient between it and a cold front extending from
31N10.5W through northwestern Africa to 22N20W to 25N40W is
producing strong to gale force winds and 10 to 20 ft seas north
of the front. Southwest of this boundary, widespread fresh to
strong trade winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft prevail south of 25N
between 30W and the Lesser Antilles.

For the forecast, large NW swell will continue north of 27N
between 65W and the stationary front through Sat night. The front
is forecast to remain stationary this afternoon, then lift
northward and dissipate. The next strong cold front is slated to
move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with
strong to gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected
behind the front through Mon morning. The front is forecast to
reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon
morning, then weaken considerably as it reaches from 30N55W to the
SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. Large N swell will build
in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through
Tue morning before subsiding.

$$
Stripling