RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 211025
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 21 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12W then
continues to 06N14W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and extends
to 05N30W and 01N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is noted from 02N to 10N between 16W and 41W. Numerous
moderate to strong convection is from 00N to 06N between 45W and
51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Surface ridging dominates basin-wide providing gentle to moderate
SE to S winds W of 90W and light to gentle variable winds
elsewhere. Seas across the region are slight. Otherwise, dense for
is expected mainly over Texas and SW Louisiana coastal waters with
visibilities less than half nautical miles. Marines over the NW
Gulf waters should exercise caution.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will
prevail over much of the Gulf through this evening. Fresh E to NE
winds will develop tonight across portions of the E Gulf and in
the Bay of Campeche as a cold front moving across the SW N
Atlantic waters tighten the pressure gradient over that region.
Building high pressure in the wake of the front will accelerate
winds in the Straits of Florida to strong speeds Mon afternoon
into late Tue. Rough seas will develop with these winds.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure of 1022 mb offshore the Carolinas and low pressure
over NW Colombia continue to support strong to near gale force NE
to E winds over the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean
and fresh winds elsewhere in the central Caribbean, including the
Windward Passage. Seas are rough to 10 ft with the strongest winds
and moderate elsewhere in the central and E basin. Over the NW
basin, winds are moderate from the NE to E and seas are slight.

For the forecast, predominant surface ridging over the Atlantic
subtropical waters extending to the northern Caribbean, and the
climatological area of low pressure over NW Colombia will continue
to support fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia, likely
reaching near gale-force speed at night. Rough seas to 10 ft is
expected with these winds. Moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee
side of Cuba, south of the Dominican Republic and in the Windward
Passage will reach strong speeds Mon evening as a strong cold
front moves across the Bahamas through Tue evening. Strong high
pressure building on the wake of the front will sustain these
strong NE winds through Thu night. Otherwise, mixed long period
swell over the tropical Atlantic waters will subside Mon evening.
New long-period northerly swell associated with the passage of the
cold front will affect the tropical Atlantic waters Wed morning
into Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two surface high centers, one of 1024 mb and another of 1022 mb,
extend a ridge across the SW N Atlantic waters where it is
intercepted by a weakening stationary front that extends from
31N61W to 24N76W. The remainder subtropical waters E of 50W are
dominated by the Azores High which center of 1032 mb is supporting
fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft E
of 50W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are
elsewhere W of 50W, except for locally fresh trades between
Hispaniola and 22N.

For the forecast W of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh trade
winds will prevail south of 22N through today. Widespread strong
to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected
over the northwest tropical Atlantic by early Mon, as a strong
cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States.
The front will rapidly progress eastward through midweek,
supporting expanding strong to near-gale force winds and rough
seas into the central basin. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft
will be possible east of 75W Tue through midweek. Looking ahead,
strong winds and rough seas may be reinforced in the central
waters east of 75W by the middle of next week as a new cold front
moves through the region.

$$
Ramos