RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

553
AXNT20 KNHC 011818
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Residual NW swell will
maintain seas near 12 ft at the central Atlantic north of 30N
between 53W and 58W today. These seas will subside below 12 ft
by early this evening.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough remains mostly over the African Continent. An
ITCZ extends westward from just southwest of Liberia across
05N25W to 06N45W. Scattered to numerous moderate with isolated
strong convection is observed near the ITCZ from 04N to 07N
between 10W and 18W. Scattered moderate convection is seen farther
west from 04N to 07N between 16W and 36W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is causing scattered showers at the western Bay
of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1022 mb high near the central Gulf
continues to dominate much of the Gulf with gentle to moderate
anti-cylconic winds and 1 to 3 ft seas.

For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will
prevail over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure builds
over the central Gulf of America. Fresh to locally strong SW to W
winds and moderate seas will develop over the northern Gulf on
Fri as a warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving
through the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing
the low is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat, leading to
moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over
the basin in the wake of the front Sun into next week

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough is producing scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms at the north-central basin. Convergent trades are
triggering scattered showers at the Gulf of Honduras and near
Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NNE to E trades and seas of 5 to 8 ft
are present at the south-central and west-central basin. Gentle to
moderate with locally fresh NNE to E to ESE trades and 3 to 5 ft
seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea, including the
Windward Passage.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and western basin, including
the Windward Passage, through Fri as high pressure builds over
the Gulf of America to the north. Elsewhere, fresh to locally
strong trade winds are expected in the south-central basin through
Sat as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected over much of the
basin for Sun..

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See the Special Features section at the beginning on rough to
very rough seas at the central Atlantic.

A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic across
31N55W to 26N64W, then continues as a stationary front to
northeast of the southeast Bahamas at 23N69W. Widely scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near and up to
110 nm southeast of this boundary. Convergent southerly winds
farther east are generating similar convection north of 22N
between 54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for
additional convection in the Atlantic basin.

Moderate to fresh W to NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are present
east of Florida, north of 27N between 64W and the northeastern
Florida coast. Fresh with locally strong S to SW winds and seas at
8 to 12 ft in residual NW swell exist north of 27N between 48W and
58W. Otherwise, moderate to gentle N to E to SE winds and 4 to 6
ft seas are noted north of 20N between 35W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate with locally
fresh NE to SSE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate to large N
swell exist. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W,
gentle SE to S winds with seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate
swell exist.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
progress eastward today, and moderate to fresh SW winds are
expected east of the front, north of 27N, through this evening.
Rough seas associated with this front, north of 26N and east of
62W, will slowly subside from west to east into early Fri. Locally
very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east
of 58W through this afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong W winds
and locally rough seas occurring offshore of northern Florida
will expand eastward today as a cold front passing north of the
waters moves eastward. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and
rough seas are expected to develop offshore of northern and
central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold front moving through the
southeastern U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northwestern
tropical Atlantic later this weekend, supporting fresh to strong N
winds and locally rough seas behind the front. These winds and
seas will expand southeastward into early next week.

$$

Chan