RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 131008
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jun 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave is in the far eastern Atlantic along 19W, south
of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 09N between
13N and 29W.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is along 34W, south of 15N, moving
westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A third Atlantic tropical wave is along 52W-53W, south of 15N,
moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is seen near
the trough axis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 78W-79W, south of 18N,
moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate convection is occurring
near this wave along the coast of Panama, while scattered moderate
to strong convection is seen along the coast and coastal waters
of Colombia, in the eastern Pacific.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N26W.
The ITCZ extends from 07N26W to 05.5N33W, then resumes from
04.5N36W to the coast of Brazil near 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate
to strong convection is noted near Africa from 01N to 05.5N E of
12W. Elsewhere, only a few showers are seen near the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad area of low pressure extending from low to mid levels of
the atmosphere continues across the SW Gulf this morning, from the
central Bay of Campeche to offshore of NE Mexico, and is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, especially
south of 25N and west of 91W. Satellite imagery and local upper
air data show strong SE low level winds to 35 kt moving across the
Yucatan Peninsula and across the eastern side of this circulation.
At the surface, a tight pressure gradient between this low and the
Atlantic ridge extending into the NE Gulf sustain fresh to strong SE
winds and moderate to locally rough seas to 9 ft south of 26N and
west of 88W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and
slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the low pressure system will shift NW through
the weekend and move inland over northeastern Mexico late Saturday
or Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf
on Tue and Wed while interacting with a frontal boundary. The
pressure gradient between the low pressure area and a ridge over
the NE Gulf will support fresh to strong SE winds and moderate to
rough seas, accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms,
through Sun night. Atlantic high pressure will build westward into
the Gulf Tue and Wed to promote moderate to fresh southerly winds
basin-wide.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few clusters of moderate convection continue across the NW
Caribbean this morning, N of 18N to the south coast of Cuba, and
into the approach to the Windward Passage, as divergence aloft
sustains this activity. Strong convection across interior portions
of the Gulf of Honduras extends from similar activity associated
with the disturbance in the Bay of Campeche. The subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic extends N of the area and across
Florida along about 27N, and supports fresh to near gale- force
easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central and
SE Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are found in the NE Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge will generally remain in
place through Sun to support a large area of fresh to strong trade
winds and moderate to rough seas across the central Caribbean.
Expect highest winds and seas off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to
strong SE winds and rough seas will also persist over the Gulf of
Honduras and northwestern Caribbean W of 85W through Sat night.
The ridge will reorganize along 60W Sun night through Mon then
shift slowly NE through midweek, leading to a slight decrease in
wind and seas across the basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N37W to 28.5N43W, followed by a
surface trough to 30N52W. A few showers are noted near the trough
axis. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a
broad subtropical ridge that extends across central Florida,
supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas
south of 22N and west of 35W. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate seas are found north of 14N an2d east of 25W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge will generally
remain in place through Sun. The ridge will then reorganize along
about 60W Sun night and Mon, then shift slowly NE Tue through
Wed. This pattern will support moderate E to SE trade winds S of
22N and a gentle anticyclonic flow elsewhere through Sun. Fresh SW
winds will develop across the NW waters N of 29N and W of 74W Sun
evening through Tue, as a weak frontal system moves through the
SE U.S. Expect fresh to strong winds each afternoon through late
evening across Atlantic waters near Puerto Rico and Hispaniola.

$$
Stripling