RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 1st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
Dense Fogconditions have developed this morning across much of North Florida, as well as portions of the Florida Keys, reducing visibilities.
-
Smoke from theNational Wildfirein South Florida may createhazardous driving conditionsalong portions of I-75 (Alligator Alley) throughout the day, but especially this morning with any fog mixed in.
-
As the day progresses and conditions warm up, additional scattered shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will develop from the Treasure Coast and through South Florida (25-60% chance of rain).
-
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatheralong Southeast Florida as thunderstorms developing during the peak heating times of the day may becomestrong to severe.
-
Thesethunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging winds (50-60 mph), large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy downpours.
-
Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will bring locally heavy downpours across portions of the Treasure Coast and South Florida today creating rainfall totals of 1-2".
-
For the rest of the state, mostly dry and sunny conditions can be expected behind the frontal boundary.
-
Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditionswill be possible for the interior Big Bend and Suwannee Valley where relative humidity values are expected to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon over existing drought conditions.
-
High temperatures will reach well into the 70s and lower 80s across the state today.
-
Most of the shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected to dissipate during the overnight hours; however, lingering isolated showers and an embedded thunderstorm or two may be possible closer towards the coastlines and coastal waters overnight across South Florida (15-35% chance of rain).
-
Low-level moisture and calm winds will bring back thechance for fogto develop overnight and into Monday morning throughout the state, withdense fogpossible across much of the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley.
-
Fog mixed in with wildfire smoke, especially across South Florida, will significantly reduce visibilities.
-
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, upper 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
-
Calm marine conditions will create amoderate risk for rip currentsalong numerous Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with portions of the First and Space Coasts seeing ahigh risk.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, February 28, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning and will be slow to lift and dissipate by mid-morning.
- A sunny and dry day is expected across much of North Florida as a slow-moving frontal boundary remains draped through Central Florida.
- A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon throughout the Peninsula along this front (35-60% chance of rain).
- Some of this activity could be locally strong to severe and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked for East-Central and Southeast Florida this afternoon.
- A few thunderstorms may be capable of producing gusty winds (40-60 mph), small hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours.
- Instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out in urban and low-lying areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- Rainfall totals will remain below 1" for most locations, though locally higher totals upwards of 3" cannot be ruled out.
- Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds this afternoon throughout the state, though sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will persist given the ongoing drought.
- Winds will remain generally light this afternoon; However, gusty/erratic winds and lightning accompanied with thunderstorms could pose a threat for additional wildfire ignition/spread.
- High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, middle 70s to lower 80s throughout Central Florida, and lower to middle 80s in South Florida.
- Portions of Northeast Florida will remain cooler today with onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to push offshore by this evening across Central and South Florida, though some activity may linger before midnight (25-50% chance of rain).
- Another night of fog and low clouds is expected throughout portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend, as well as locally throughout interior South Florida.
- Some of this fog could be locally dense and Dense Fog Advisories may be issued as conditions warrant.
- Where dense fog and ongoing wildfire smoke mix, visibilities may be significantly reduced.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s in Central Florida, and middle to upper 60s in South Florida.
- A high risk for rip currents is expected for Panhandle beaches this afternoon; A moderate risk persists for East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, February 27, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy dense fog across portions of the interior Peninsula will slowly lift and dissipate through the morning hours.
- Areas of fog mixed with wildfire smoke may lead to near zero visibility this morning.
- Sea fog may linger along the West-Central Florida coastline through the afternoon hours.
- Scattered showers across the Panhandle and Big Bend early this morning will increase in coverage throughout the morning and afternoon hours ahead of a slow-moving frontal boundary, sliding eastward towards Northeast Florida (75-90% chance of rain).
- Additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will also begin to develop across Central Florida later this afternoon (50-75% chance of rain).
- Although there is no organized risk for severe weather, some of this activity could be locally strong and produce gusty winds (30-50mph), small hail, and locally heavy downpours.
- Rainfall totals will remain below 1" for much of North and Central Florida, however localized totals upwards of 3" cannot be ruled out.
- A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out south of Lake Okeechobee this afternoon as well (25-40% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s throughout North Florida and lower to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula.
- Pockets of lower relative humidities across interior South Florida may keep the locally elevated wildfire conditions in place where a few active wildfires continue to burn.
- Isolated lightning strikes today could lead to additional wildfire ignition across portions of the Peninsula.
- Tonight, shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will begin to slowly drift towards Central Florida as the frontal boundary is slow to sag southward (50-80% chance of rain).
- Areas of low clouds and patchy fog may develop across North Florida tonight where lingering low-level moisture and warmer temperatures overlap.
- Additional areas of patchy fog cannot be ruled out across interior South Florida tonight as well ahead of the main rain activity.
- Where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions.
- Lows will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and lower to middle 60s throughout the Peninsula.
- A high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle beaches this afternoon, with a moderate risk for most East Coast and Nature Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, February 26, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Following our transition day on Wednesday, isolated pockets of patchy fog and low clouds were present this morning as low-level moisture gradually returns to the Sunshine State.
- Spotty showers this morning along the Florida Panhandle will set the stage for increasing rain chances (40-60%), becoming increasingly widespread this evening and overnight (50-80% chance of rain).
- Southerly winds build ahead of our next frontal system, with wind gusts reaching 20-25 mph across North Florida and localized gusts upwards of 30 mph possible along the immediate coastline.
- A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout the Florida Peninsula, with a slight chance for a few showers this afternoon across Southeast Florida (20-25%).
- The primary weather headline today will continue to be sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions across the Florida Peninsula, with Red Flag Warnings going into effect this afternoon across East-Central Florida until 6:00 PM EST.
- While low-level moisture returns, long-term drought and extremely dry fuels/vegetationwill continue to promote wildfire ignition and spread.
- Areas of dense smoke will likely pool near ongoing wildfires or burns; this is especially impactful near the large wildfire (National Wildfire) burning within Big Cypress National Preserve where periods of reduced visibility are likely along Alligator Alley (I-75) in Collier and Broward Counties.
- Tonight, areas of fog and low clouds will develop; where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions.
- A high risk of rip currents continues for Florida Panhandle, East-Central Florida, and Southeast Florida beaches; moderate risk conditions reside along Northeast Florida beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, February 25, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- One last cool start this morning for the Sunshine State today as temperatures will warm up nicely throughout the day.
- Frost Advisories will be allowed to expire by the early to mid-morning hours from the Suwannee Valley through the Peninsula with temperatures steadily warming up.
- High pressure overhead will continue to bring mostly dry conditions across the state, with a slim chance for brief showers moving onshore from the Emerald Coast this afternoon (5-10% chance of rain).
- Very dry conditions will persist throughout East-Central and interior South Florida where relative humidity values will fall below critical thresholds again (15-35%).
- Elevated wildfire conditions can be expected to persist and locally critical conditions cannot be fully ruled out.
- Dense smoke will be possible throughout the day across South Florida and South-Central Florida today due to the ongoing National Wildfire in the Everglades.
- High temperatures will return to the upper 60s to middle 70s across the state this afternoon.
- As the next cold front approaches slowly from the west, shower activity will increase along the Panhandle this evening bringing isolated to widely scattered showers onshore (15-30% chance of rain).
- Instances of patchy fog may be possible across the Panhandle and interior West Florida early Thursday morning; however, elevated winds may limit fog development.
- Low temperatures will fall back into the 40s and 50s across the state, with coastal portions of the Panhandle and Southeast Florida reaching the lower 60s.
- Winds shifting out of the south to southwest will allow for a high risk for rip currents to return to much of the Panhandle. Lingering swells off the East Coast will keep a high risk in place for numerous beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.