RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, February 18th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Areas of foghave developed this morning for portions of the state, with dense fog along the eastern Panhandle.
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ADense Fog Advisoryremains in effect until the mid-morning hours forreduced visibilitiesdue to fog and low clouds.
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Mostly sunny and dry conditions can be expected across the state once the fog lifts and dissipates, courtesy of high pressure overhead.
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Low-level moisture and daytime heating may create a few sea-breeze induced brief showers along the Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day (10-15% chance of rain).
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Any of these showers that develop will likely remain closer towards the coast, but regardless any shower activity will be light and brief.
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While low-level moisture continues to increase, interior portions of South-Central Florida and around Lake Okeechobee will see relative humidity values dipclose to critical thresholds this afternoon (35-45%).
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Wind gusts across the Suwannee Valley and interior Northeast Florida willincrease to 15-20 mphlate this afternoon.
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High temperatures will continue to warm up into the 70s to middle 80s across the state this afternoon.
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Light showers will continue this evening and into portions of the overnight hours across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to upper-level support.
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Just like the daytime showers, these will be light and brief (10-20% chance of rain).
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Otherwise, mostly dry conditions can be expected overnight. Low-level moisture and calm winds overnight will lead towidespread patchy fogdeveloping overnight and early Thursday morning throughout the state.
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Locally dense fogcannot be ruled out in some areas, especially low-lying areas.
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Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s throughout the state overnight.
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The long-period ocean swell of 3-6' and onshore winds along the Florida East Coast will create ahigh risk for rip currentsfor all beaches.
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Amoderate riskreturns for nearly all Panhandle beaches, except for Gulf County which will see alocally high risk.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, February 17th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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High pressure over the coastal Carolina's will bring a near-zero chance of rain, other than a few brief coastal showers, and warm temperatures across the Sunshine State today.
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Areas of patchy to locally dense fog this morning should continue to gradually lift and dissipate.
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Mostly clear skies can be expected with a few clouds mixed in throughout the day.
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Onshore winds and low-level moisture may help to bring a few brief showers onshore along the Space Coast (10-15% chance of rain).
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Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds, and wind gusts will reach upwards of 15 mph, creating sensitive wildfire conditions with a locally elevated threat throughout the Peninsula.
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High temperatures will reach the 70s and lower 80s across the state this afternoon.
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Clear and calm conditions can be expected to continue into the overnight hours.
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Recent rainfall and low-level moisture may allow for areas of patchy to locally dense fog to develop early Wednesday morning across the Panhandle and Upper Suwannee Valley.
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Low temperatures will fall into the lower 50s across North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and middle 60s to near 70-degrees across South Florida.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentswill linger statewide as oceanswells of 1-4'continue and winds become easterly to southeasterly.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, February 16th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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The remainder of yesterday’s cold front and associated shower activity will push through South Florida this morning and clearing the Keys by the early to mid-afternoon hours today (15-25% chance of rain).
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There may be a very slim chance for an embedded rumble of thunder this morning, especially closer towards the coastal waters.
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Partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger throughout the state for most of today as the upper-level disturbance associated with Sunday’s frontal system moves overhead.
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Dry conditions return across the state; however, moisture in place and cloud cover will keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds throughout the day.
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Wind gusts will remain slightly elevated near 10-15 mph throughout the day, with strongerwind gusts upwards of 15-25 mphalong the eastern coastline.
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High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s across the state, with interior portions of South Florida reaching the lower 80s this afternoon.
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Onshore winds along portions of the East-Central Florida coastline and enough moisture may bring a few light sprinkles or a brief shower this evening and overnight (10-20% chance of rain).
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Instances of fogwill be possible across interior portions of the Big Bend and North-Central Florida by early Tuesday morning.
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Low temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and upper 50s to middle 60s across South Florida.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentswill linger statewide as ocean swells gradually dissipate and winds shift out of the northeast and become lighter.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Active weatherreturns to the Sunshine State after a few days of pleasant conditions and high pressure.
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A squall line of showers and thunderstorms has moved into the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning, bringing some stronger thunderstorm activity along with it (80-near 100% chance of rain).
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weatheracross most of North Florida, with aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5)extending through Central Florida and the I-4 corridor this evening and tonight.
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Any of thesestrong to severe thunderstormsthat develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph), an embedded tornado or two, large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy rainfall.
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ATornado Watchhas been issued for much of the Big Bend until the mid-afternoon hours, and may be extended into Northeast Florida later today if conditions warrant.
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Out ahead of this line, gusty winds outside of thunderstorm activity will develop reaching 15-25 mph beginning late this morning and continuing throughout the daytime hours across the state.
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Windgusts will reach 20-30 mphstatewide, withstrong gusts of 35-45 mphacross North and North-Central Florida.
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Wind Advisorieshave been issued for most of North Florida through this evening as these gusty winds can be expected outside of thunderstorm activity.
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingacross North Florida and along portions of the Nature Coast where some locally heavy rainfall or training of thunderstorms could bringnuisance and localized ponding of water, especially for urban areas.
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Generally, 0.5-1.5” of rainfall can be expected withlocally higher totalsupwards of 2” along the coastal Big Bend and Nature Coast for repeated activity moving onshore from the coast.
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Another brief line of showers looks to follow behind the main line across the I-10 corridor late this afternoon and into the evening bringing an additional round of isolated to widely scattered showers.
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This cold front will continue to push through the state this evening and overnight, weakening and becoming less organized as it crosses through Central Florida overnight (35-50% chance of rain).
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Near sunrise on Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain mostly over South Florida as the cold front makes its final push through the state.
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High temperatures will reach the 70s across the Panhandle and western Big Bend due to earlier rain chances and cloud cover.
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A delay in shower and thunderstorm activity and pockets of sunshine will allow the rest of the state to see high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
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Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and 60s across Central and South Florida tonight.
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Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds and large ocean swells associated with a cold front moving through the state will bring amoderate tohigh rip current riskstatewide.
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Large long-period ocean swells will createwave heights of 5-7’along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day.
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High Surf Advisoriesremain in effect along the Panhandle through this evening fordangerous surf and beach conditions.
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Nuisance to minor coastal floodingnear times of high tide may be possible along the Nature Coast with water levels reaching 1-2’ above normally dry ground due to large ocean swells and southerly winds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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High pressure will remain centered over the Southeast U.S. today bringing another sunny, dry, and pleasant day to the state.
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A localized chance of a light sprinkle exists along the immediate Treasure Coast this afternoon with some coastal shower activity, though any activity will be very brief in nature (15-20% chance of rain).
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Pockets ofnear critically lowrelative humidities are expected this afternoon across North Florida and the spine of the Peninsula which, paired with ongoing drought, will continue to promoteelevated wildfire conditions.
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High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 70s across North Florida this afternoon and upper 70s to lower 80s throughout Central and South Florida.
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Coastal and beach locations of North Florida will remain cooler with onshore flow where highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected.
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Mostly dry conditions will continue to prevail tonight for much of the state asa potent upper-level disturbancealong the Gulf Coast approaches.
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Fog and low cloudsmay develop along coastal Big Bend, the Nature Coast, and portions of West-Central Florida with moist southerly flow ahead of our frontal disturbance.
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Some of this fog could belocally dense andDense Fog Advisoriesmay be issued if conditions warrant.
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Scattered showers will begin to develop ahead of the front across the western Panhandle after midnight (60-80% chance of rain), spreading across the eastern Panhandle and western Big Bend before sunrise (25-50% chance of rain).
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Overall coverage of these showers and locally embedded thunderstorms will increase towards daybreak as a more organized line of activity enters the Panhandle around sunrise.
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Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop ahead of the front, with wind gustsupwards of 25-30 mphexpected across the western Panhandle by early Sunday morning.
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Low temperatures tonight will remain in the 50s for most, with middle 60s to lower 70s along coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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Generally calm surf of 1-3' is expected at all statewide beaches this afternoon.
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Surf will begin to increase to4-6'after midnight along the western Panhandle where aHigh Surf Advisorywill go into effect at 3 AM CST tonight.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.