RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for September 04th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A very similar day to yesterday is expected across the Sunshine state as a cold front remains stalled over the southern Peninsula bringing a wet day to South Florida.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore across South Florida this morning and additional rounds of activity will continue throughout the day (70-80% chance of rain).
- More scattered activity is expected across Central Florida and the I-4 corridor (30-55% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across South Florida today for repeated downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding.
- Dry conditions persist throughout North Florida; however, a shower or embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for Northeast Florida or the Big Bend coasts along the sea breeze (15-25% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon.
- Heat index values from the Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula will remain in the middle to upper 90s, with a few localized areas reaching the lower 100s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will likely continue overnight across South Florida as they move inland and eastward from the gulf waters (40-60% chance of rain).
- Elsewhere across the state mostly dry conditions can be expected.
- Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida and middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
- A moderate risk for rip currents will continue for Panhandle and East Coast beaches today as breezy onshore winds and elevated swells persist.
- Coastal Flood Advisoriesremain in effect for portions of the tidal St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast forminor coastal flooding and nuisance tidal floodingnear and during times of high tide.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has risen into minor flood stage, and will continue to see elevated water levels throughout the week.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Atlantic: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands have started to become better organized. Environmental conditions are favorable for development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend over central tropical Atlantic while moving slowly toward the west northwest at 5 to 10 mph. The system is likely to move faster toward the west or west-northwest thereafter and reach the waters east of the Lesser Antilles by the middle of next week.
- Formation chance through 48 hours... medium... 50%
- Formation chance through 7 days...high... 80%.
Thank you!
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, September 3rd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms have begun to move onshore along the Southwest Florida coast this morning, and additional rounds of activity will continue throughout the day.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop across South Florida this afternoon and evening (70-80% chance of rain), with more scattered activity across Central Florida and the I-4 corridor (30-55% chance of rain).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across South Florida today for repeated downpours that could lead to localized flash flooding.
- Dry conditions persist throughout North Florida courtesy of northeasterly winds; however, a shower or embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out for the Northeast Florida coast along the sea breeze (15-25% chance of rain).
- Breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph will also continue for portions of the First and Space Coasts.
- High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon.
- Heat index values from the Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula will remain in the upper 90s to lower 100s with localized areas across the Florida Keys reaching the middle 100s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue through the evening and overnight hours across South Florida as they move inland and eastward from the gulf waters (50-75% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida and middle 70s to lower 80s elsewhere.
- Oceans swells and breezy winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents nearly statewide. West Coast beaches will continue to see a low risk for rip currents.
- Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect for portions of the tidal St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast for minor coastal flooding and nuisance tidal flooding near and during times of high tide.
- Large ocean swells of 4-5’ will persist along the Northeast Florida coast, while the rest of the East Coast will see wave heights upwards of 2-4’ throughout the afternoon and evening.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- A tropical wave located west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions support gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form later this week of this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph crossing the open waters of the tropical Atlantic through the upcoming weekend. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chances through 48 hours...low...30%.
- Formation chances through 7 days...high...70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, September 02, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Onshore winds this morning will bring showers and thunderstorms inland along the Florida East Coast with the help of a non-tropical upper-level disturbance just off the coast.
- Wet and active weather will continue across the Peninsula today as the stalled frontal boundary remains draped across South Florida.
- Daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will help to create scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon, with the greatest chance across the eastern Peninsula (55-70% chance of rain).
- Locally gusty winds can be expected for portions of the East Coast, with gusts reaching upwards of 15-20 mph, locally stronger gusts of 25 mph possible.
- Drier conditions will continue to filter into the Panhandle, keeping showers and thunderstorms closer towards the northeast coast along the sea breeze
- High temperatures will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s throughout most of the state, with portions of South Florida approaching the middle 90s.
- Heat index values from the Suwannee Valley and throughout the Peninsula will remain in theupper 90s to middle 100s this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue to push offshore from the East Coast later this evening and into the overnight hours before another round of showers move onshore from gulf waters (20-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 60s and lower 70s throughout North Florida, while the rest of the state will see low temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
- The moderate to high risk for rip currents persists for nearly all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been posted for tidal portions of the St. Johns River and along the Northeast Florida coast as elevated tides, onshore winds and surf will lead to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide over the next few days.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has risen into minor flood stage, and will continue to see elevated water levels throughout the week.
- From the National Hurricane Center NHC):
- A tropical wave located south of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions support gradual development of this system during the next several days. A tropical depression is likely to form later this week of this weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph crossing the open waters of the tropical Atlantic through the upcoming weekend. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chances through 48 hours...low...30%.
- Formation chances through 7 days...high...70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, September 01, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The wet and active pattern will continue across Northeast Florida and the Peninsula as the stalled frontal boundary from the last couple of days continues to sag southward.
- A non-tropical area of low pressure looks to develop along or just off the Florida East Coast today, helping to bring showers and thunderstorms onshore along the eastern half of the Peninsula.
- Additional rounds of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the afternoon and evening hours, especially along the eastern half of the Peninsula (65-85% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the I-95 corridor and the eastern Peninsula where locally heavy downpours from thunderstorms could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4” possible.
- With this disturbance developing, breezy wind gusts of 15-25 mph, and 25-35 mph along the coast, will also develop across northeast and central portions of the Peninsula.
- A Wind Advisory has been posted for portions of the Northeast Florida coast through the late afternoon hours.
- Drier air will continue to filter into the Panhandle on the backside of the stalled frontal boundary, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated and closer towards the coast where the sea breeze will likely remain pinned (10-20% chance of rain).
- Warm and muggy conditions will continue throughout the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of the I-4 corridor, this afternoon as heat index values will reach the middle 90s to lower 100s (100-104-degrees).
- With a non-tropical area of low pressure attempting to develop just offshore from the eastern Peninsula, showers and thunderstorms may linger throughout the overnight hours along the and east of the I-95 corridor (35-50% chance of rain).
- Ocean swells and breezy onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along beaches nearly statewide.
- A High Surf Advisory has been posted for the Northeast Florida coast due to dangerous ocean swells of 5-8' developing throughout the day.
- A River Flood Warning has been issued for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels are forecast to rise into or just above minor flood stage throughout the week.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the far eastern tropical Atlantic is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some slow development of this system. A tropical depression could form late this week or weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, August 31, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- This weekend’s stalled front remains draped over the northern Peninsula, and has already allowed for showers and thunderstorms to move onshore along the Nature and West-Central Florida coast this morning.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected to continue to move onshore along portions of the Florida West Coast, then move inland and become more widespread throughout the Peninsula this afternoon and evening (45-80% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across Northeast Florida (mainly along the I-95 corridor) and throughout the Peninsula where locally heavy downpours from thunderstorms could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible.
- Drier air will begin to filter into the Panhandle on the backside of the stalled frontal boundary, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated and closer towards the coast (20-40% chance of rain).
- Warm and muggy conditions will continue throughout the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of the I-4 corridor, this afternoon as heat index values will reach the middle 90s to lower 100s (100-104-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue eastward throughout the evening before pushing offshore along the Florida East Coast during the overnight hours.
- Showers and thunderstorms may linger throughout the overnight hours along the and east of the I-95 corridor (35-50% chance of rain).
- Lingering ocean swells of 3-5' along the First and Space Coasts will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents. Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave about to move off the west coast of Africa. Environmental conditions are conducive for slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic this week. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…30%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.