RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, March 28, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A frontal boundary stationed along the I-4 corridor continues to produce scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms along the Northern Peninsula this morning (65-90% chance of rain).
- The cold front will make its way southeastward and off the coast of the Southern Peninsula this afternoon (35-55% chance of rain).
- High temperatures in the low to middle 70s across North Florida, upper 70s to low 80s through Central Florida, and low to middle 80s along South Florida and the Keys.
- Wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph expected across South and Central Florida with 15-25 mph gusts elsewhere.
- Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will be possible along the Panhandle and Western Big Bend this afternoon with high dispersions, breezy winds, and near to below critical relative humidity values (20-40%).
- A High Surf Advisory remains in effect along Palm Beach County through this evening as 3-7’ breaking waves linger.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents persists statewide.
- Near zero rain chances and clear to mostly clear skies will return statewide overnight as high pressure builds in behind the cold front.
- Low temperatures in the middle 40s to low 50s across North Florida, middle to upper 50s through Central Florida, upper 50s to low 60s through South Florida, and middle to upper 60s along the Keys.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, March 27th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Yesterday’s cold front will continue to slowly move eastward over the Suwannee River Valley before stalling, bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (70-90% chance of rain).
- Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will continue throughout the day as the frontal boundary slowly moves eastward and stalls, and as daytime heating processes allow for additional thunderstorms to develop across Northeast Florida and the northern Peninsula.
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida and the northern Peninsula as strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-65 mph), large hail upwards of 1.5” (ping pong size) and torrential downpours.
- The greatest concern within these showers and thunderstorms will be heavy downpours and widespread rainfall that will create an increased potential for localized flooding.
- A Flood Watch remains in effect through early Tuesday morning across the Big Bend and portions of the Suwannee River Valley where rainfall totals of 1-3” will be possible, with locally higher totals upwards of 5”.
- Slow-moving or training showers and thunderstorms will also increase the potential for localized flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas, especially along the Big Bend coastline where activity moves onshore from the Gulf waters.
- The cold front will re-develop later this evening and overnight as it slowly moves towards the I-95 corridor, allowing for scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue and move southward into Central and Southwest Florida (60-95% chance of rain).
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents continues statewide due to lingering ocean swells and onshore winds creating dangerous beach and boating conditions.
- High Surf Advisories continue along western Panhandle beaches, as well as Palm Beach County beaches, due to wave heights of 4-7’.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, March 26th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A cold front advancing eastward along the western Panhandle will bring scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day as it moves along the I-10 corridor towards the Big Bend (70-90% chance of rain).
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the Panhandle and Big Bend as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), an isolated tornado or two and heavy downpours.
- Breezy wind gusts of 20-25 mph will continue statewide, with stronger wind gusts of 30-35 mph possible across the Panhandle ahead of and along the passing cold front.
- As the cold front moves into the Big Bend it will weaken and stall providing a brief break in activity before shower and possible thunderstorm activity re-develops overnight (70-90% chance of rain).
- A Flood Watch will go into effect overnight and continue into early Thursday morning as widespread rainfall over the next couple of days could produce rainfall totals of 2-4” with locally higher totals upwards of 5” in some areas, leading to instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Strong onshore winds along portions of the Big Bend and Apalachee Bay, as well as elevated surf, may lead to instances of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion near and during times of high tide – Coastal Flood Advisory.
- Dangerous beach and boating conditions continue along several beaches across the Panhandle and East Coast as ocean swells of 5-8’ and a high risk for rip currents can be expected.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, March 25th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure over the Northeastern U.S. will bring mostly dry conditions across the state, but breezy winds along the Florida East Coast may allow for isolated sprinkles or light showers this morning and early this afternoon (5-15% chance of rain).
- A low pressure system over the Central U.S. will create gusty winds of 30-40 mph across the far western Panhandle throughout the day and into early Tuesday morning; Wind Advisories will go into effect mid-morning as southeasterly winds of 15-20 mph and wind gusts upwards of 45 mph can be expected.
- Additional breezy wind gusts of 20-30 mph will develop throughout the day across the state due to the pressure difference between opposing systems.
- High temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and low 80s across the state by the afternoon, with areas along the western Peninsula reaching the middle 80s given plenty of sunshine.
- Overnight the low pressure system over the Central U.S. will move towards the Midwest allowing for the systems cold front to drag across the Deep South and into the western Panhandle bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms (20-40% chance of rain).
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the far western Panhandle as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight and early morning hours.
- These strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph) and heavy downpours. While the greatest risk for isolated tornadoes is to the west of the Florida Panhandle, an isolated tornado or two cannot be ruled out.
- Dangerous beach and boating conditions continue along the Florida East Coast as wave heights of 6-8’ and a high risk for rip currents can be expected for all beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect from the Northeast Florida coastline and into Treasure Coast.
- Additional dangerous beach and boating conditions have developed along the northern Gulf of Mexico and the Florida Panhandle due to an ocean swell producing wave heights of 5-8’ (High Surf Advisory) with large wave heights of 7-9’ (High Surf Warning) along the far western Panhandle.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 24th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- In the wake of an active weather period, mostly dry conditions can be expected across much of the state with some quick-moving showers this afternoon along the eastern Peninsula (15-20% chance of rain).
- High pressure over the Northeastern U.S will help to bring drying conditions across the state as yesterday’s cold front pushes offshore from Southeast Florida this morning.
- Breezy wind gusts of 20-30 mph will develop throughout the day across the eastern Peninsula, especially along Northeast Florida where gusts upwards of 35-40 mph will be possible.
- Wind Advisories are in effect along coastal portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida due to breezy winds of 20-25 mph and gusts upwards of 35-40 mph.
- Mostly dry conditions will continue through the evening and overnight hours, with lingering showers possible across South Florida at times (10-15% chance of rain).
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected to continue nearly statewide due to breezy winds and dangerous ocean swells.
- Dangerous beach and boating conditions can be expected for several Northeast and East-Central Florida beaches due to wave heights of 6-8’, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect through the early part of this week.
- While there is no organized risk for coastal flooding, elevated surf and breezy winds may allow for instances of localized beach and coastal erosion during times of high tides along portions of the East Coast through Tuesday evening.
- The Apalachicola River near Blountstown is forecast to fall below minor flood stage later this evening and into Monday morning as water levels continue to decline.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.