RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, March 31st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
Good morning,
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A near rinse and repeat of yesterday is expected today with spotty chances for showers and embedded thunderstorms across much of the state due to moist south and east flow.
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A few onshore moving showers are ongoing this morning across Southeast Florida, and coverage will increase this afternoon across the Peninsula along the east coast sea breeze as it pushes inland (15-30% chance of rain).
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The greatest chance of rain today, however, is across the northern Panhandle where increasing moisture and the sea breeze will help to initiate activity (35-50% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for severe weather, some of this activity could be accompanied by an occasional lightning strike or two and locally heavy downpour.
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The easterly flow today will be accompanied by breezy wind gustsupwards of 20 mph along the I-95 corridor with locally higher gusts upwards of 25 mph across Southeast Florida.
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Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds today, though ongoing drought will keep locally sensitive toelevated wildfire conditions in place.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon.
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Lows will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida.
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With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas of fog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida.
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The greatest chances for locally dense fog will be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida.
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Elevated surf persists along the East Coast today with waves near4-6'expected and ahigh risk for rip currentsremaining. Amoderate riskis expected for all Panhandle beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, March 30th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A few onshore moving showers are ongoing this morning across South Florida, and coverage will increase this afternoon across South and Central Florida with the east coast sea breeze and persistent onshore moist flow (35-50% chance of rain).
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An isolated shower or even embedded thunderstorm cannot be ruled out further north across North Florida (15-25% chance of rain).
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Much of this activity is expected to diminish shortly after sunset, though some showers may linger along the Southeast coastline overnight (15-20% chance of rain).
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There is no organized risk for severe weather or flash flooding today, however any of this activity across the Peninsula could bring an occasional lightning strike or two and locally heavy downpour capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain.
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This onshore flow will be accompanied by breezy wind gusts upwards of 25 mph along the I-95 corridor with locally higher gustsupwards of 30 mphacross Southeast Florida.
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Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds today, though ongoing drought will keep locally sensitivetoelevated wildfire conditions in place.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to lower 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon.
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Lows will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida.
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With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas offog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida.
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The greatest chances forlocally dense fog will be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida.
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AHigh Surf Advisory remains in effect for Treasure Coast beaches where surf of6-8' will persist through the day.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 29th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A stalled frontal boundary is promoting the development of morning showers over the southern Florida Peninsula, setting the stage for an unsettled weather day south of the I-4 corridor (45-65% chance of rain).
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The greatest rain chances reside along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline (65-80% chance of rain).
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Alocally strong thunderstorm cannot be ruled out later this afternoon; lightning, gusty winds, andheavy downpours possible.
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Multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity may produceponding water and floodingover the urban and metro Southeast Florida corridor.
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Wind Advisoriesremain in effect along the Florida East Coast until 4:00 PM ET this afternoon forwind gustsreaching upwards of30-40 mph.
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Easterly winds also allow for isolated shower activity to develop across North and Central Florida (10-30% chance of rain).
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Windy conditions and increased cloud cover will keep temperatures on the cooler side this afternoon.
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Sensitive toelevated wildfireconditions continue statewide today due to long-term drought and breezy conditions.
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Rough surf and strong onshore flow will yield amoderate tohigh risk of rip currentsalong all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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High Surf Advisories remain in effect until late Monday afternoon at Florida Atlantic beaches; breakers in the surf zone may reach7-10'.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, March 28, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A few areas of patchy fog throughout the lower Suwannee River Valley will begin to slowly lift and dissipate this morning ahead of our next frontal passage.
- Sufficient moisture along the I-95 corridor and throughout interior Central and South Florida will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop this afternoon ahead of and along this front, currently draped across North Florida (25-40% chance of rain).
- Across the Panhandle and Big Bend, north to northeasterly winds will increase to 15-20 mph later this morning and early afternoon with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.
- Paired with critically low relative humidities (20-30%), conditions will become favorable this afternoon for significant wildfire development and spread throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT for all of the Panhandle and much of the Big Bend for this critical fire weather risk.
- Further east, even stronger winds are expected throughout Northeast and East-Central Florida, especially along the immediate coastline, where sustained winds of 25-30 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the East Coast into tonight for these windy conditions.
- Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds across Northeast Florida, though given the extreme drought, elevated wildfire conditions can still be expected.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s throughout much of North Florida this afternoon. Cooler conditions in the middle to upper 60s can be expected along the Northeast Florida coast given the windier conditions. Highs in the 80s will spread throughout the rest of Central and South Florida today.
- Winds will begin to gradually subside throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend into the evening and overnight hours, though some gusts upwards of 20 mph may linger.
- The cold front passing through the Peninsula will begin to stall tonight across South Florida, which will encourage multiple rounds of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the nighttime hours (40-60% chance of rain).
- Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, some of this activity could bring a few locally heavy downpours capable of producing localized flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations of the Southeast Florida metro region.
- Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2” through tonight, though locally heavier totals upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
- A few isolated showers may also linger along the Northeast and East-Central Florida coast overnight where wind gusts of 25-35 mph will continue to push activity onshore (25-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures tonight will cool off into the lower to middle 50s throughout interior North Florida and upper 50s to lower 60s along the North Florida coasts. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are expected throughout Central and South Florida tonight.
- Surf will begin to significantly increase along the East Coast starting this afternoon in the wake of our frontal passage.
- Surf of 5-8' is expected across all Northeast and Space Coast beaches this afternoon, spreading southward to include Treasure Coast beaches tonight and increasing to 9-12'.
- A High Surf Advisory is in effect beginning later this afternoon and evening and through Sunday from Nassau County to Palm Beach County along the East Coast.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, March 27, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Mostly dry conditions will prevail statewide today with sunny skies this afternoon as high pressure remains overhead.
- A few isolated showers or embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across interior Central and South Florida along the sea breezes as they push inland (15-20% chance of rain), though activity will generally be light and brief in nature.
- Should a heavier slow-moving cell develop, a quick 1-2” of rain cannot be ruled out in localized areas.
- The high-pressure system will bring temperatures to near-record levels this afternoon, with highs reaching the middle to upper 80s across interior portions of the state. A few locations may top out near 90-degrees.
- Breezier winds of 15-20 mph will keep temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.
- Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds this afternoon, however the ongoing drought will continue to promote sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon.
- Clear and calm conditions tonight will encourage another night of fog and low cloud development, with portions of interior Central and South Florida favored for locally dense fog.
- Lows will only reach into the upper 50s to middle 60s across much of the state, with coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys reaching the lower 70s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most East Coast and Panhandle beaches today, with a local high risk along Palm Beach County beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.