RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 9th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
A bit more moisture is expected to creep into the state today as high pressure over the northern Gulf begins to weaken and shift westward.
-
Breezy onshore flow will also increase along the East Coast today which, along with the afternoon sea breeze boundaries, will encourage a few isolated to scattered showers or thunderstorms to develop this afternoon (20-30% chance of rain).
-
A locally higher chance of rain exists across Southwest Florida where sea breeze boundary collisions are most favorable (40-60% chance of rain).
-
Throughout North Florida, an upper-level disturbance will rotate across the region, helping to spark a few showers and storms across the eastern Panhandle (25-35% chance of rain).
-
Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding today, any storm statewide could produce occasional lightning andlocally heavy downpours.
-
Warm and muggy conditions will continue across the state today, though a bit more cloud cover will keep high temperatures andfeels-like temperatures in the upper 80s tomiddle 90s for most.
-
A few locations across South Florida may see heat indicesnear 100-degrees.
-
Recent hot and dry conditions have helped to dry out vegetation statewide which will encouragelocally sensitive wildfire conditions despite relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds and winds below 20 mph.
-
Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s across the state tonight.
-
A bit more moisture and calmer winds may promotepatchy fog development across the western Panhandle by daybreak Wednesday.
-
Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for most eastern Panhandle beaches and all East Coast beaches.
-
According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,397 acres.
-
Tropical development isnot expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic basin.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 8th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
Upper-level ridging is helping keep the weather pattern quiet and largely rain-free today.
-
The only notable chances for rain today are the chance for some isolated showers or storms (<20%) in North-Central Florida and some isolated to scattered chance for showers and storms in Southwest Florida (40-60%).
-
Ridging and surface high pressure will suppress afternoon convection elsewhere across the state. As expected, there is no organized risk of flash flooding or severe weather today.
-
Any showers and storms that do develop in either Southwest or North-Central may linger some after sunset but should dissipate or push offshore altogether by midnight.
-
A gradual moisture increase observed over the weekend in combination with high surface air temperatures from the persistent ridging may lead to some of the hottest afternoon feels-like temperatures experienced thus far this summer.
-
The heat will be greatest across Western/Southwestern Florida, where widespreadlower to middle 90s are expected, with feels-like temperaturesapproaching 105 degrees.
-
Upper 80s tolower 90s are expected elsewhere across the state, with feels-like temperatures in theupper 90s.
-
Overnight lows will be in the low to middle 70s, with some locations along the coastal metro areas along the East Coast staying in the lower 80s tonight.
-
Hot and largely rain-free weather today alongside multiple days of dry weather and antecedent long-term drought conditions will promote somesensitive fire weather concerns today even if minimum relative humidity values will be well-above critical thresholds and winds remain low.
-
Some isolatedpatchyfog is possible in the Western Panhandle tomorrow morning within a swath of comparatively moist air.
-
Amoderate risk for rip current is in effect for most Panhandle beaches and for all East Coast beaches north of the Gold Coast.
-
According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 39 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,384 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 7th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
Weather conditions across the State today will be similar to Saturday.
-
Some of the storms across the western Panhandle today may contain heavy rainfall, and aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingis possible across Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.
-
Heat index values could reach the upper 90s to low 100sthis afternoon across South Florida. Across North and Central Florida, heat indices should be in the mid 90s, but the lower humidity will also increase the fire danger.
-
Elevated onshore winds will continue ahigh risk for rip currentsfor most Panhandle and all Southeast beaches today.
-
Relative humidity levels will be low across North and Central FL at around 35-50% but should stay above critical thresholds. Winds will be out of the east/southeast today, with gusts of <15mphexpected. These features should all promote at leastsensitivefire weather conditions today. According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 36 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,354 acres.
-
A few tropical waves are located in the eastern and central Caribbean Sea, as well as near the Yucatan Peninsula. However, none of these are expected to develop into tropical systems within the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 6th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
High pressure remains firmly in place over Florida, keeping conditions hot and dry for the majority of the state.
-
The only exceptions to this is in South Florida where lingering moisture may be enough to squeeze out a few light showers today (10-20% chance of rain), and the extreme Western Panhandle due to the proximity of the remnants of a weak Gulf Low (40-60% chance of rain).
-
The heavy rainfall potential from these remnants have prompted the issuance of aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today across Escambia and Santa Rosa counties.
-
The risk of flash flooding appears highly conditional for Florida given its positioning near the eastern extent of the associated moisture plume and thus will be dependent on how far west moisture will extend and if any lines of training showers and storms develop overtop these counties.
-
Current rainfall forecasts are generally around 1’ across Escambia and Santa Rosa counties, but some isolated totals of2-3’ appear possible.
-
Otherwise,sensitivewildfire conditions are expected to continue today.
-
This is especially true across North-Central FL, where we are expecting afternoon low minimum relative humidity values between35-40%.
-
These values are significantly below-average for this time of year, even if it doesn't quite exceed critical thresholds.
-
The fire weather threat is still marginal overall, as wind gusts today will max out at only around 10-15mph and fuels remain largely saturated from recent heavy rainfall.
-
However, hot and dry weather overlapping with areas that have been subjected to long-term drought conditions, and that have seen multiple wildfire reignitions/new ignitions over the past two days, invites the need for some fire weather awareness today.
-
High temperatures across most of the state today will be in theupper 80s to lower 90s.
-
The East Coast will remain a little cooler, with highs in the mid 80s as easterly onshore flow helps modulate afternoon high temperatures somewhat.
-
Lows will generally be in lower to middle 70s tonight.
-
Elevated onshore winds will bring ahigh risk for rip currents for most Panhandle and all Southeast beaches today. Amoderate risk for rip currents is expected for Central and Northern East Coast Beaches today where onshore flow is comparatively weaker. A low risk remains in effect for all West Coast beaches.
-
According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 34 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,326 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 5th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
A large area of high pressure is settling in overtop Florida, keeping most of the state hot and dry today.
-
Chances of rain will be unseasonably low as the high pressure and dry airmass both act to suppress typical afternoon sea breeze driven convection.
-
The only exception to this will be in extreme South FL and the Keys (40-70% chance for rain) where a marginally moist airmass remains, allowing for some afternoon showers and thunderstorms to develop.
-
Otherwise, the main concern across the state this today will be continuedsensitivewildfire conditions.
-
This is especially true across North-Central FL, where we are expecting afternoon low minimum relative humidity values between35-40% - which will be significantly below-average for this time of year even if it does not quite exceed critical thresholds.
-
The fire weather threat is still marginal overall, as wind gusts today will max out at only around 15-20mph and fuels remain largely saturated from recent heavy rainfall.
-
However, hot and dry conditions overlapping with areas that have been subjected to long-term drought conditions, and that saw multiple wildfire reignitions/new ignitions yesterday afternoon, invites the need for some fire weather awareness today.
-
High temperatures across most of the state today will be in theupper 80s to lower 90s.The East Coast will remain a little cooler, with highs in the low to mid 80s as easterly onshore flow helps modulate afternoon high temperatures.
-
Lows will generally be in the upper 60s to lower 70s tonight.
-
Easterly onshore winds will bring ahigh risk for rip currents for most Panhandle and all East Coast beaches today. A low risk remains in effect for all West Coast beaches.
-
According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 31 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,259 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.