RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, September 18th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another wet and active day is expected across the central and southern Peninsula as deep tropical moisture remains in place across the region.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore across coastal South Florida this morning, and additional scattered to widespread activity is expected to develop this afternoon (60-85% chance of rain).
- Moisture will also spread further northward, promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across Central Florida along the sea breeze boundaries (30-55% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across coastal Southeast Florida where localized flash flooding is possible with numerous rounds of heavy showers and thunderstorms.
- Heavy rainfall in recent days may lead to an earlier onset to flooding, especially in urban areas and over saturated soils.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected across portions of South Florida and the Keys, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
- Across North Florida and the Panhandle, dry conditions will continue to prevail, though an isolated shower cannot be ruled out along the coastlines.
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to middle 90s across the state this afternoon with heat index valuesreaching the lower 90s across South Florida and middle to upper 90s across North and Central Florida.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue into the overnight and early morning hours across coastal Southeast Florida (40-65% chance of rain), mostly dry elsewhere.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- Instances of patchy dense fog may develop by early Friday morning within the Suwannee River Valley.
- A moderate risk for rip currents extends along all East Coast and numerous Panhandle beaches, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach, Martin, and St. Lucie County.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal floodingfor the Florida Upper Keys near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- ARiver Flood Warningremains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have fallen back into minor flood stageas onshore winds have relaxed and allowed for water levels to discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Storm Gabrielle - As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Gabrielle has maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and is located about 845 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands moving west-northwestward at 15 mph. A similar forward motion across the tropical and subtropical central Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Little change in strength is expected during the next 48 hours, but some gradual strengthening is forecast later in the weekend. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic - A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa by Friday morning. Some slow development of this system is possible over the weekend through the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through 48 hours... low... near-0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days... low...20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, September 17th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Little to no change can be expected across North Florida; however, rain chances will be slightly higher than the last couple of days along portions of the Panhandle and lower Suwannee Valley with increasing moisture (less than 15% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, mostly sunny and dry conditions can be expected across North Florida throughout the day.
- Wet and active weather returns across the Peninsula, especially South Florida and the Keys, with the stalled front slowly inching northward back towards the state.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have already begun moving onshore and inland over South Florida and the Keys, and will continue to do so throughout the day becoming more widespread during the peak heating hours (50-80% chance of rain).
- Increasing moisture from south to north will also give way to scattered shower and thunderstorm activity returning across Central Florida this afternoon and evening.
- Repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and thunderstorm activity could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water, especially along the Treasure and Southeast Florida coastline - Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5" possible.
- Cloud cover and higher rain chances will keep high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida, while more sunshine will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s for North Florida.
- Heat index values across portions of the Panhandle, Suwannee Valley and West-Central Florida will reach the middle 90s this afternoon.
- Most of the heavy rainfall should push offshore and over the coastal waters near and around midnight; however, coastal showers and thunderstorms will linger, especially along the East Coast, into the overnight hours.
- By sunrise Thursday, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to push northward over the Florida Keys and the southern Peninsula.
- Mostly dry and calm conditions can be expected throughout the rest of the state overnight, and instances of patchy to locally dense fog may develop by early Thursday morning within the Suwannee River Valley.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida overnight.
- A moderate risk for rip currents extends along all East Coast and numerous Panhandle beaches, with a locally high risk along Palm Beach County.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for the Florida Upper Keys near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have fallen back into minor flood stage as onshore winds have relaxed and allowed for water levels to discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Depression Seven: With the 5:00 AM EDT advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Seven over the central tropical Atlantic. As of 5:00 AM EDT, the system is located about 1,185 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving westward at 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Tropical Depression Seven poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Little to no change from Monday in the forecast can be expected for today.
- Dry and mostly sunny skies persist across North Florida courtesy of northeasterly winds leading to pleasant conditions.
- Breezy winds along the Northeast Florida coast will continue throughout the day with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon.
- Ongoing dry conditions and relative humidity values falling near critical thresholds across the Panhandle may lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions.
- Moisture will creep northward into South Florida, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening (30-55% chance of rain).
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Central Florida along the I-4 corridor as moisture begins to extend northward (15-30% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions continue across South Florida allowing for heat index values to reach the middle to upper 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before a break in activity, and by the early morning hours on Wednesday, additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to drift back towards the coastlines (20-45% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, conditions be expected throughout the overnight hours.
- Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- Ocean swells of 3-5' and onshore winds will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast.
- Panhandle beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- Minor tidal and coastal flooding will continue near and during times of high tide along the tidal St. Johns River and portions of the Keys, and Coastal Flood Statements and Advisories remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains at moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure, Invest 92L, area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...90%.
- A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15-20 mph, moving from the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...low...20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, September 15, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dry conditions persist across North Florida and into Central Florida courtesy of high pressure along the eastern U.S. leading to pleasant conditions with plenty of sunshine.
- Breezy wind gusts will continue along the Northeast Florida coast with wind gusts upwards 15-25 mph developing this afternoon.
- The stalled frontal boundary to the south of the Florida Peninsula will linger through today keeping moisture in place for South-Central and South Florida.
- Isolated showers will be possible along the Atlantic Coast and south of the I-4 corridor, with scattered activity expected across South Florida later in the day (35-50% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however, thunderstorm activity may bring instances of heavy downpours that lead to ponding of water in low-lying/urban corridors.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s across South Florida this afternoon.
- Heat index values will remain below critical thresholds across North and Central Florida, but muggy conditions across South Florida will keep heat index values in the middle 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours across South Florida before moving offshore overnight.
- A few showers may linger overnight along or near the Southeast Florida coast overnight (15-25% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the East Coast due to onshore winds and elevated surf of 3-5'.
- Panhandle beaches can expect to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- Elevated tides will continue to lead to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding along the Florida Keys near and during times of high tide - Coastal Flood Statements.
- Trapped tides, elevated surf and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor coastal and tidal flooding within the tidal St. Johns River and along the Northeast Florida coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains steady within moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- A tropical wave over the central Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the ext. couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...80%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, September 14, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Drier conditions will infiltrate the Peninsula today as the recent frontal boundary has finally pushed offshore from South Florida.
- While the frontal boundary remains nearby, and moisture associated with the front lingering, additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along portions of Central and South Florida this afternoon and evening (25-45% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today; however, areas might be sensitive to additional rainfall today and could lead to localized ponding of water in urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” possible in heavy downpours from thunderstorm activity.
- Throughout the rest of the state, pleasant and mostly sunny conditions can be expected as northeasterly winds continue to usher drier air southward.
- Breezy northeasterly winds along the Northeast and East-Central Florida coasts will reach upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon, with stronger gusts upwards of 30-35 mph just offshore or along the immediate coastline.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Portions of South Florida will see heat index values reach the middle 90s this afternoon before any shower or thunderstorm activity develops.
- Showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate throughout the evening and overnight hours, with a chance for a lingering shower or two overnight along the I-95 corridor (15-25% chance of rain).
- Breezy winds look to calm down mostly overnight but northern portions of the First Coast could see still wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph overnight.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for nearly all East Coast beaches today, with several Panhandle beaches seeing a moderate risk.
- Large ocean swells will persist across most East Coast beaches today with persistent breezy onshore winds creating wave heights of 4-7’.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for portions of the Upper Florida Keys and coastal Southeast Florida near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- Growing ocean swells and onshore winds will trap elevated tides within tidal portions of the St. Johns River, leading to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide, with a localized instances of moderate coastal flooding possible.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have risen into moderate flood stage.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter. A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.