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Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, July 18th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- In the wake of the weak area of low pressure (Invest 93L), areas of high pressure will begin to build across the Sunshine State today.
- Rain and thunderstorm activity becomes far more isolated to widely scattered than compared to recent days (25-45% chance of rain) for the Peninsula.
- Abundant moisture will stick around North Florida and the I-10 corridor today, yielding another day of more scattered shower and thunderstorm activity (55-75% chance of rain).
- Any summertime shower and thunderstorm may produce locally heavy downpours with a localized flooding and ponding water concern possible for the western Florida Panhandle today.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding for the extreme western Florida Panhandle today, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4)extending to the US-231 corridor.
- Frequent lighting and gusty winds may accompany any thunderstorm activity during the peak heating hours of the day; a few strong to locally severe thunderstormscannot be ruled out.
- Hot and humid conditionswill give way to dangerous heat index values with triple digit feels like temperatures (100-107-degrees) statewide.
- There is a High Risk for rip currents over Florida Panhandle and Gold Coast beaches today.
- There is no tropical development across the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, July 17th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The weak area of low pressure, identified as Invest 93L, advances westward along the northern Gulf Coast, keeping Florida embedded within deep southerly flow and moisture again today.
- Invest 93L (30%) maintains a low chance of development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and chances for flash flooding will persist for the north-central Gulf Coast.
- Scattered showers and an isolated embedded thunderstorm are already moving onshore the Florida Panhandle (70-95% chance of rain).
- A few stronger thunderstormscapable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall rateswill be possible.
- Repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms may lead to instances of flooding and ponding wateralong the Florida Gulf Coast.
- There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingalong the Florida Panhandle and immediate West Florida coastline, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for the far western Florida Panhandle.
- The overall pattern works to return to typical summertime in the Florida Peninsula, one more day of enhanced moisture will prompt scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm development (65-85% chance of rain).
- Afternoon high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with triple digit heat indices (99 to 103-degrees) likely.
- Heat index values settle just below Heat Advisory criteria across Northeast Florida, with feels-like temperaturesreaching 105 to 107-degrees.
- Elevated rain chances remaining along the Florida Panhandle tonight (35-50%).
- The rip current risk is High today across Florida Panhandle beaches with wave heights upwards of 3-4'.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, July 16, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected again today, courtesy of enhanced tropical moisture (60-95% chance of rain).
- Drier air filtering in behind the tropical disturbance keeps shower and thunderstorms activity along the I-95 corridor more scattered in nature (35-55% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining the Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle and Florida West Coast for intense rainfall rates and heavy downpours that could lead to instances of flash flooding.
Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with; feels-like temperatures reach the upper 90s totriple digits (100-104-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms linger along the Gulf Coast throughout the overnight hours (30-60% chance of rain).
- An elevated risk of rip currents can be expected for all Florida Beaches today.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) maintains a 40% (medium) chance of development over the next 48 hours, should Invest 93L re-emerge over the northern Gulf waters. This system's proximity to land will work to limit the extent of potential tropical development.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
*Correction* Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, July 15, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Invest 93L (40%) will continue to gradually approach and move across the Florida Peninsula from the east before re-emerging over the northeastern gulf waters tonight and early Wednesday morning.
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms have already developed along East-Central Florida and we will continue to see additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected by the afternoon and evening hours.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the day, peaking in the afternoon and evening hours with the help of tropical moisture and daytime heating (70-near 100% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and torrential downpours.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across Nature Coast and the central Peninsula, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) statewide with intense rainfall rates and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall leading to an increased chance for flash flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected across the state, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-7" possible.
- Hot and humid conditions can be expected throughout the state this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon.
- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-108-degrees) across North and Central Florida.
- Heat Advisories will go into effect across portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend as heat index values upwards of 108-degrees can be expected.
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely continue throughout the overnight hours, especially across the northern Peninsula closer towards Invest 93L as it moves across the state overnight (30-70% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s and lower 80s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected along Panhandle and the Florida East Coast with persistent onshore winds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, July 14, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Invest 93L (40%) will continue to gradually approach and move across the Florida Peninsula from the east before re-emerging over the northeastern gulf waters tonight and early Wednesday morning.
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms have already developed along East-Central Florida and we will continue to see additional showers and thunderstorms can be expected by the afternoon and evening hours.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the day, peaking in the afternoon and evening hours with the help of tropical moisture and daytime heating (70-near 100% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and torrential downpours.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding across Nature Coast and the central Peninsula, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) statewide with intense rainfall rates and repeated rounds of heavy rainfall leading to an increased chance for flash flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3" can be expected across the state, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-7" possible.
- Hot and humid conditions can be expected throughout the state this afternoon, with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon.
- Heat index values will reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-108-degrees) across North and Central Florida.
- Heat Advisories will go into effect across portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend as heat index values upwards of 108-degrees can be expected.
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will likely continue throughout the overnight hours, especially across the northern Peninsula closer towards Invest 93L as it moves across the state overnight (30-70% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the lower 70s and lower 80s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected along Panhandle and the Florida East Coast with persistent onshore winds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.