RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, March 19, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Our late season cool pattern comes to an end; however, brisk northeasterly winds keep afternoon highs mild across North and East Florida.
- Wind gusts of 20-25 mph can be expected, with locally higher wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible along the immediate Atlantic beachfront.
- Onshore flow will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers (35-50% chance of rain) along coastal East-Central and Southeast Florida.
- West-Central and Southwest Florida will be the warmest spots on the map today with afternoon high temperatures returning into the middle to upper 70s.
- While warmer than recent nights, low temperatures will remain chilly in the lower 40s across North Florida and the Nature Coast, with a few interior locations making a run toward the upper 30s one more night.
- While it is looking like a greater concern for this weekend, patchy fog and low clouds may be possible tonight across interior Northeast Florida areas.
- Recent wetting rains have been certainly beneficial in the short-term; however, we will need several more rounds of rainfall to push the needle out of the deficit and improve the long-term drought and dry soil/vegetation conditions.
- Exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought has been introduced over eastern Madison, Northern Gilchrist, western Suwannee, and Hamilton counties; portions of the Florida-Georgia state line saw worsening soil moisture and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March.
- Relative humidity values will drop once again into the 20s and 30s across North and interior North-Central Florida, leading to locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions.
- A high risk of rip currents continues to Florida East Coast and West-Central Florida beaches; moderate risk conditions persist for the Florida Panhandle and Southwest Florida coastline.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, March 18, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An even chillier morning was observed across much of North Florida this morning with temperatures in the upper 20s to middle 30s.
- Temperatures will continue to warm as the sun comes up with dry conditions prevailing across North and Central Florida today.
- A mixture of sun and clouds, as well as a cool and dry northeasterly breeze, will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s throughout North Florida this afternoon.
- Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout Central and South Florida.
- The north to northeasterly breeze will remain elevated for much of the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida today, with gusts reaching upwards of 20-25 mph.
- This onshore flow will also keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers throughout South Florida, especially along the coast (35-50% chance of rain).
- Very low relative humidities (15-25%) will allow for sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon across North Florida, even with some of the recent rainfall.
- Lows will dip into the middle to upper 30s across North Florida tonight, with a few rural locations possibly getting close to the freezing mark.
- Calm winds and clearing skies may allow for patchy frost to develop, especially in rural locations, important for agricultural interests as many plants and crops have already begun to bud, bloom, and green up.
- Additional Frost Advisories cannot be ruled out tonight for portions of North Florida.
- Lows throughout Central Florida will reach the upper 40s to middle 50s.
- Upper 50s to middle 60s can be expected across South Florida tonight where a few lingering showers may stick around along the immediate coast through the night (25-45% chance of rain).
- A high risk for rip currents is expected for most East Coast beaches; A moderate risk is outlooked for Northeast Florida, West Coast, and Panhandle beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, March 17th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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The colder airmass has certainly settled in behind yesterday’s strong frontal system, with an impressive 30- to 40-degree temperature swing for North Florida over the past 24 hours!
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Breezy northerly to northwesterly winds of 5-15 mph will continue to reinforce the cooler and drier weather, withwind gustsof15-25 mphpossible.
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As our recent frontal system stalls over the Florida Straits, its proximity will allow for scattered shower activity across South Florida (40-60% chance of rain).
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While a stray thunderstorm cannot be ruled out, severe weather or flooding are not expected.
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Freeze Warningshave been reissued for the interior Florida Panhandle andFreeze Watchesare in place across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee River Valley;upgrades to Freeze Warnings will be issued as conditions warrant this afternoon.
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Even as winds gradually subside through the evening and overnight hours,feels-like temperaturesin themiddle to upper 20scan be expected throughout North Florida;sub-freezing wind chillsare also possible from the Nature Coast into interior North-Central Florida.
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Conditions will be favorable forwidespread frostto develop across North Florida;Frost Advisorieswill go into effect along the northern I-75 corridor tonight.
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This is especially important for agricultural interests as many plants and crops have already begun to bud, bloom, and green up after the warm 2-week stretch of late February/early March.
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Dangerous beach and marine conditions continue for most Florida beaches, withelevated wave heightsand amoderate tohigh risk of rip currents.
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Recent wetting rains will largely curb wildfire threat today; however,critically low relative humiditiesand lingering gusty winds supportlocally elevated wildfireconcerns.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, March 16th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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An active weather day can once again be expected across the Sunshine State as a strong springtime cold front brings a multi-hazardous severe weather threat to much of North and Central Florida.
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While the squall-line became a bit disorganized over the Florida Panhandle earlier this morning, thunderstorm segments were still capable of producing embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and prompted the issuance of several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings.
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Tornado Watch #65 remains in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Florida Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley through 2:00 PM ET; additional downstream watches will be issued as conditions warrant.
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Scatteredstrong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front will advance eastward this morning and will look to regain organization with daytime heating.
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The line of showers and thunderstorms will reach the I-10/I-75 interchange around midday, Northeast Florida early this afternoon, and the I-4 corridor by the evening commute.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weatheracross North and Central Florida, as well as the Treasure Coast, as organized thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated embedded tornadoes, lightning, and instances of large hail (1” in diameter).
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While the frontal boundary will lose organization south of Lake Okeechobee, the combination of ample daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will promote aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5)for isolatedstrong to locally severe thunderstormsthis afternoon and evening.
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There is no organized risk of flash flooding; however, any heavier rainfall rates may lead to pockets ofponding water and floodingalong portions of coastal and metro Southeast Florida.
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Outside of thunderstorm activity, breezy to windy conditions will develop through much of North and Central Florida withwind gustsreaching upwards of25-35 mphthroughout portions of North and Central Florida.
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In the wake of this potent frontal system, northerly winds will quickly usher in a colder and drier airmass to Florida, withwintertime temperaturesmaking their return. Low temperatures tonight will dropat or below freezingfor interior North Florida locations, with temperaturesfeeling likethemiddle to upper 20sby Tuesday morning.
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There is amoderate tohigh risk of rip currentsalong all Florida beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 15th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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An active weather day can be expected across the Sunshine State as we are monitoring the evolution of a strong frontal system moving across the eastern United States.
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Rain and thunderstorms chances increase across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula (60-90% chance of rain); a few of these thunderstorms may bestrong to locally severe.
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Multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity likely to increase the risk ofponding water and flooding throughout Southeast Florida low-lying/flood-prone urban corridors.
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While thunderstorm activity will gradually subside from south to north across the Florida Peninsula afternoon, attention quickly turns to a likely squall-line containingstrong to severe thunderstormsadvancing eastward across the Lower Mississippi River Valley.
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Computer forecast models indicate that the squall-line will likely arrive to the western Florida Panhandle early Monday morning, progress along the I-10 corridor during the pre-dawn hours, reaching the Florida Big Bend by the Monday morning commute.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Thunderstormsalong the Florida Panhandle for straight-line winds (45-65 mph) existing within any organized segments of thunderstorm activity and isolated tornadoes that develop along the line’s leading edge.
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One trend to closely monitor tonight will be a greater tornado potential within any clusters of thunderstorms that developahead of the primary line of thunderstorms; the SPC has placed a localizedEnhanced Risk (level 3 of 5)for Florida counties adjacent to the southeastern Alabama border where ingredients may be more supportive for tornadic activity.
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Please be sure you have multiple ways to receive alerts tonight into Monday morning!
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There is amoderate risk of rip currents for all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches;high riskconditions reside along the Southeast Florida coastline.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.