RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 24th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Similar conditions to yesterday can be expected as an expansive areas of high pressure over the eastern U.S. dominates.
- The Atlantic sea breeze will continue to out win the Gulf sea breeze leading to the greatest rain chances across West and South Florida later in the day.
- Slightly drier conditions will continue to lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze (20-60% chance of rain).
- A brief strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze collisions bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours locally.
- Hot conditions can be expected this afternoon with high temperatures will into the 90s, with portions of the Florida Panhandle reaching the 100-degree mark.
- Feels-like temperatures will reach the upper 90s along the East Coast with the help of onshore winds, while the rest of the state can anticipate values in the triple digits (100-108-degrees).
- Areas locally along the Panhandle could see a brief Heat Advisory or two this afternoon, if conditions warrant.
- Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate from east to west late in the evening hours before mostly dry conditions return overnight.
- A few brief showers may linger along the Atlantic Coast overnight with the nearby Gulf Stream (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s which may give way to little relief from daytime heat and humidity.
- East Coast beaches will continue to see a moderate to high risk for rip currents with brisk onshore winds. Panhandle beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased chances (medium-50%) for Invest 90L over the central subtropical Atlantic as a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped on the north-side of the low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, and further resurgence of the thunderstorm activity could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm. By later today, the low is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward at 15-20 mph while remaining over the central Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 23rd, 2025.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Some drier air will filter into the state courtesy of high pressure over the eastern U.S. keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated to scattered compared to the last few days.
- The Atlantic sea breeze will push further inland compared to the Gulf sea breeze, allowing for shower and thunderstorm coverage to be greatest across West and South Florida (40-70% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
- Hot conditions will continue to build each day with high temperatures this afternoon reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state.
- Portions of the Panhandle could see high temperatures approaching the upper 90s.
- Feels-like temperatures will continue to reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-106-degrees) by the early to mid-afternoon hours throughout the state.
- Areas locally across the Panhandle could see feels-like temperatures briefly reach Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will drift offshore and dissipate heading into the late evening hours as the sea breeze shifts offshore as well.
- A few brief showers or rumbles of thunder may linger near the coast overnight, especially along the Atlantic Coast with the nearby Gulf Stream (15-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will continue to remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s overnight.
- Atlantic beaches can expect a moderate to high risk for rip currents to persist with breezy onshore winds along the coast. Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk.
- The NHC is outlooking a high (70%) chance of development for Invest 90L over the Central Subtropical Atlantic as showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a small increase in organization and persistence of shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to move northeastward at 5-10 mph, remaining over the central Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 22nd, 2025.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The daily sea breeze influenced by high pressure over the eastern U.S. will continue to drive scattered shower and thunderstorm activity across the state today (40-70% chance of rain).
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are already beginning to move onshore along the Atlantic Coast, and they will continue to move inland throughout the day.
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out during the peak heating hours of the day where the sea breeze boundaries meet one another.
- Frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), torrential downpours and localized instances of hail will be possible.
- Nuisance flooding or ponding of water will be possible with any torrential downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Breezy onshore winds outside of thunderstorm activity will lead to wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph along the Atlantic Coast.
- Hot and muggy conditions can be expected as high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s and feels-like temperatures reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-105-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will gradually move offshore and dissipate late in the evening and overnight hours as the sea breeze pushes offshore; however, a few showers and embedded thunderstorms may linger along the East Coast (20-40% chance of rain).
- Instances of locally patchy fog cannot be ruled out early in the morning hours.
- Low temperatures will fall into the 70s and lower 80s throughout the state overnight.
- Breezy onshore winds along the East Coast will lead to a moderate to high risk for rip currents. A moderate risk persists along Panhandle beaches.
- The NHC is outlooking a low (10%) chance of development for an upper-level disturbance located about 500 miles east-southeast of Bermuda as some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days before moving into an areas of strong upper-level winds. This system poses no direct threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 21st, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Persistent area of high pressure over the eastern United States will keep rain and thunderstorm activity primarily influenced by the daily sea breeze.
- Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected along the Florida Panhandle (40-55% chance of rain).
- More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances develop across the Suwannee River Valley and Southwest Florida Peninsula (55-70%).
- Thunderstorms may become strong to severe and capable of producing gusty winds (40-60 mph), frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
- Slow-moving thunderstorms may lead to instances of nuisance flooding and ponding water, especially for usual trouble spots that experience multiple rounds of downpours.
- Warm and humid conditions can be expected statewide, with triple digit (99 to 103-degrees) heat index valueslikely for the Florida Panhandle and West Coast.
- Areas of patchy fog and low clouds cannot be ruled out for some interior Florida Panhandle locations tonight.
- There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 20th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Typical summertime weather pattern continues across the Sunshine State, with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Isolated to widely scattered afternoon thunderstorms expected along the Florida Panhandle (40-55% chance of rain).
- More widespread rain and thunderstorm chances develop across the Florida Peninsula, west of I-95 corridor (55-75%).
- Thunderstorms may become strong to severe and capable of producing gusty winds (40-60 mph), frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.
- Slow-moving thunderstorms may lead to instances of nuisance flooding and ponding water, especially for usual trouble spots that experience multiple rounds of downpours.
- Warm and humid conditions can be expected statewide, with triple digit (99 to 105-degrees) heat index values likely for North and Central Florida.
- Areas of patchy fog and low clouds cannot be ruled out for some interior Florida Panhandle locations tonight.
- There is a moderate risk of rip currents along all Florida Panhandle and most East Coast beaches; high risk conditions for central Panhandle beaches.
- Tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
- Happy Summer Solstice- The First Official Day of Summer!☀️
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.