RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 122238
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W and then runs southwestward to 07N16W. An ITCZ
continues southwestward from 07N16W across 03N30W to northeast of
the Amazon Delta at 03.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is
seen near the ITCZ from 00N to 06N between 23W and 50W.

Convergent NE winds just north of the tail end of the East Pacific
monsoon trough are causing scattered showers across the Caribbean
waters near Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

As of 1800 UTC, a cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel
and across the Yucatan Peninsula, ending inland near the SE Bay
of Campeche. Scattered showers are occurring along and near the
front. Gale-force winds behind the front have diminished, but very
rough seas of 12-15 ft prevail S of 20N and W of 94W. Earlier
scatterometer data indicated strong to near gale-force winds and
rough seas occurring S of 22N, while moderate to fresh NE winds
and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across much of the remaining
Gulf.

For the forecast, a cold front extends across the Yucatan Channel
to the Yucatan peninsula. Strong to near gale NW winds are
occurring over the SW Gulf, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds
over the remainder of the Gulf. The front will weaken and stall
shortly with conditions improving across the Gulf tonight into
Tue. Moderate or lighter winds will prevail across the basin
through early Wed. The next cold front will move the Gulf Wed
night, followed by increasing winds and building seas, with the
front shifting quickly southeast of the basin Thu. Looking ahead,
conditions should improve Thu night into the weekend as high
pressure shifts across the N Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the Leeward Islands
continues to support a robust trade-wind regime for much of the
Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are
evident at the south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE to E winds
with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen in the lee of Cuba and near the
Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh ENE winds and seas at
4 to 6 ft are noted at the north-central basin. Gentle to
moderate NE to E winds with slight seas prevail elsewhere in the
Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will
pulse offshore of NW Colombia through much of the week due to the
pressure gradient between high pressure north of the region and
low pressure over Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E
winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage,
and in the lee of Cuba through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker
winds will prevail. A weakening cold front will move slowly
southward across the Yucatan Channel today and become stationary
across W Cuba and the N Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning as it
gradually dissipates. Looking ahead, another cold front is
expected to move into the NW Caribbean Thu, stall from E Cuba to
Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front stretches southwestward from just southeast of
Bermuda across 31N64W and across the northern Bahamas to the north
coast of Cuba. Scattered showers are present along and near the
front. Farther east, a couple of surface trough are triggering
patchy showers from 20N to 28N between 60W and 72W. In the
tropical Atlantic, an upper-level low near 18N57W and associated
diffluent upper level flow is generating scattered showers from
10N to 23N between 35W and 55W. Another cold front runs
southwestward from northwest of Madeira across 31N20W to 28N38W.
A pre-frontal trough is analyzed across the western Canary Islands
from 31N12W to 28N19W, with scattered showers occurring along and
near the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the
beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft follow the
first cold front. For the rest of the western and tropical
Atlantic north of 10N between 55W and the cold front/central and
southeast Bahamas, gentle to moderate NE to SE with 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted. To the east, north of 25N between 35W and 55W, gentle
to moderate NE to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate. For
areas from 06N to 24N between 20W and 50W, fresh to strong trades
and 6-8 ft seas prevail. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate
seas prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas then to central Cuba will drift
southeastward today, become stationary tonight, then dissipate on
Tue. High pressure will build eastward off of the SE coast of the
United States behind the front. A strong pre-frontal trough will
emerge off the coast of NE Florida Wed morning and quickly move
eastward, accompanied by fresh to strong winds with scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking ahead, the next
cold front will enter the NW waters Thu morning, reaching from
near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and extending from
31N58W to 25N70W Sat morning. Gale conditions are possible both
behind and ahead of the front to the north of 30N Thu night
through Fri morning.

$$
Adams