RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

805
AXNT20 KNHC 071001
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0930 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends from 31N75W to
near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today, then
stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits
line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from the
Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu.
Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure.
As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S.,
the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite
tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this
morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N,
through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure
moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be
generated by these gales,

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information
on the Gale Warning.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the African coast at
08N12W, then reaches SW to 01N24W. The ITCZ extends from 00N26W
to 00N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
noted S of 04N along both of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A nearly-stationary front extends from just south of Tampa Bay to
a 1013 mb low pressure centered near 24N91W. A cold front then
extends from the low to the western coast of the Yucatan
Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is along and south of the
front in the SE Gulf. N of the boundary in the NE Gulf, fresh to
locally strong NE to E winds have developed, and rough seas are
building. W of the cold front as well as in the NW Gulf, fresh to
locally strong N winds prevail, with subsiding rough seas.

For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the SW
Gulf will decrease today, but strong NE winds and rough seas in
the NE Gulf will increase as the low tracks east along the slow-
moving front and across Florida into tonight. Thunderstorms with
locally gusty can be expected across the eastern Gulf ahead of the
low. The front will then stall into late week over the far SE
basin and only gradually dissipate, leaving a tight pressure
gradient between it and building high pressure from the SE U.S.
This will maintain the strong winds and rough seas over the NE
basin much of the week, with near gale conditions possible Wed and
Thu offshore Florida. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat
Fri as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern
Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central
Atlantic and lower pressure in South America is inducing fresh
trades over the central and eastern basin, with seas of 5 to 7 ft.
In the western Caribbean, the typical trade winds have been
disrupted by a cold front to the north in the Gulf of America,
causing winds to be light and seas to be slight. No significant
convection is occurring in the basin early this morning.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail
over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to
moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build
southward from the western Atlantic, leading to increasing winds,
especially in the south-central basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features above for information on a
Gale Warning in the SW N Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N75W to near Melbourne,
Florida. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds are N of this
boundary, with building rough seas. Scattered moderate convection
is south of this boundary, within 120 nm of the Florida coast. A
surface tough extends north from Puerto Rico along 68W to 24N. It
is inducing scattered moderate convection along and W of it to
70W, and is also producing strong southerly winds just E of its
axis. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from
just NW of the Canary Islands, to 26N30W to 28N42N. Fresh to
locally strong NE winds follow this front, with building rough to
very rough seas. The rest of the basin, E of 65W, has mainly fresh
trades and moderate seas, although NE swell has propagated ahead
of the eastern Atlantic cold front, and rough seas now cover
waters N of 20N and E of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N75W to near Melbourne, Florida. This front will drift SE today,
then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida
Straits line. Low pressure will track NE along the boundary from
the Florida Peninsula tonight to N of the area near Bermuda Thu.
Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure.
As strong high pressure builds toward the region from the SE U.S.,
the pressure gradient between it and the cold front will be quite
tight, and NE gales will develop offshore NE Florida this
morning. These gales will spread E to about 73W, mainly N of 28N,
through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure
moves N of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 19 ft will be
generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a
much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely
to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions
could be slow to improve.

$$
Konarik