RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

125
AXNT20 KNHC 151034
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Mon Dec 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force northwest to north
winds and rough seas of 10 to 16 ft in north swell are spreading
into the Atlantic waters east of 78W early this morning, behind an
arctic cold front that extends from 31N70W to near Palm Beach,
Florida. These gale conditions are expected to persist immediately
behind the front this morning, as it moves southeastward, before
gale- force winds behind the area remain north of 31N by early
afternoon. Otherwise, widespread strong to near-gale force
northerly winds producing very rough seas in northwest to north
swell are expected behind the front today. The N swell will reach
the islands of the northeast Caribbean late Tue night into early
Wed as it merges with easterly trade wind swell moving through the
regional waters. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to
SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period N to
NE swell continues to affect most of the eastern tropical and
subtropical Atlantic. Seas of 12 ft or greater are currently from
08N to 21N between 26W and 49W, and from 10N to 21N east of 24W,
where peak seas are 13 ft, per recent satellite altimeter data.
Global wave models show northerly swell of 14 to 16 seconds
mixing with NE swell of 9 to 10 seconds across this area. With
persistent fresh to strong northeast trade winds, the area of 12
ft or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W this morning
Mon before they slowly subside from NE to SW going into Tue. For
information east of 35W please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by Meteo- France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For
information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W, and
continues southwestward to 04N23W, where it transitions to the
ITCZ to 03N32W to 04.5N40W to 04N49W. Numerous moderate to
isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 07.5N, and east of
32W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06.5N
between 32W and 38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

An arctic cold front extends from near Naples, Florida to near
Tampico, Mexico as a large 1040 mb high pressure system across the
eastern U.S. builds in over the basin behind it. A few showers are
noted along the front across central and west portions. The very
tight pressure gradient between the front and the high pressure is
bringing strong to near-gale force northeast winds, with gusts to
gale force north of the front per latest ASCAT data. Seas with
these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range based on the latest
satellite altimeter data. The latest ASCAT satellite data shows
gentle to moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere across the
basin south of the front, where seas are 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to
move south across the basin and exit the Gulf tonight. Strong
northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. High
pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front
Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to
move into the NW Gulf Thu evening and reach from near Tampa Bay
to SE Texas Fri evening then lift northward and dissipate.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure has shifted eastward into the central
Atlantic. As as result, the trade winds over the eastern
Caribbean have diminished to moderate speeds, but continue at
fresh speeds across the south-central Caribbean waters. Gentle to
moderate trade winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to
8 ft prevail over most of the basin east of about 82W, with the
exception of higher seas of 7 to 9 ft from 11N to 15N between 73W
and 81W. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of 81W. Otherwise, a
trough is analyzed over the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered
moderate to strong convection is depicted south of 13N, and west
of 80W in association to another surface trough offshore of
Nicaragua, and the eastern Pacific monsoon trough extending across
Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over
the south central Caribbean through Tue as Atlantic high pressure
remains well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the
tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into
the eastern part of the basin through Tue. A cold front will
enter the northwestern Caribbean this evening, accompanied by
increasing winds and building seas. This front is expected to
reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will stall
and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure will build into
the W Atlantic Wed through Fri to bring a return to fresh to
strong trades across the central Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for more information on
a Gale warning for the western Atlantic waters offshore northern
Florida, and for a significant swell event in the eastern
Atlantic.

An arctic cold front continues to move southeastward across the
western Atlantic this morning, extending from near 31N70W to near
Palm Beach, Florida. Outside of the areas of northerly gales
immediately behind the front, strong to near-gale force NW to N winds
and very rough seas follow the front. Seas well offshore of NE
Florida have built to 8 to 12 ft in the past few hours. A trough
is analyzed from near 29N72W southwestward to northwestern
Bahamas. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found along
the trough. Another surface trough to the southeast, and a deep
layered trough are supporting scattered moderate isolated strong
convection north of 23.5N between 61W and 71W. Gentle to moderate
south to southwest winds are found along the troughs, except for
moderate to fresh northwest winds north of 29N. Gentle to moderate
northerly winds are spreading across the Bahamas and adjacent
waters ahead of the front. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of the
troughs, except for lower seas of 2 to 5 ft across the Bahamas.

A 1031 mb high pressure is near 38N36W. A tight pressure gradient
between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure across the
tropics to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds
over the waters south of about 25N and east of 60W. Seas of 8 to
13 ft prevail with these trade winds, as noted above in the
Special Features section.

For the forecast W of 55W, Gale-force winds will continue immediately
behind the cold front east of the Bahamas through midday today.
Otherwise, the front will continue to progress southeastward and be
followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly
building seas through this evening. The front will reach from
31N57W to the central Bahamas and through the Straits of Florida
by Mon evening, stall from 30N55W to the SE Bahamas and central
Cuba by Tue morning, then slowly dissipate through Wed afternoon.
Large N swell will build across the regional waters behind the
front today through Tue before subsiding. The Bermuda High will
dominate the regional waters Thu through Fri.

$$
Stripling