RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

567
AXNT20 KNHC 020417
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high
pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support strong
to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the
south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force over
these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal
drainage flow. Very rough seas are expected with these winds.

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous
gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE
swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has
propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas
currently over the waters from 10N to 20N between 33W and 50W.
The seas, currently peaking near 14 ft, are gradually subsiding
and will decrease below 12 ft by Tue.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa
near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ
extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted
within 360 nm on either side of the boundaries.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak frontal boundary extends from the Florida Keys westward to
25N84W and to near 24N87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are
along and near the boundary. Winds over the Gulf are moderate or
weaker, with slight to moderate seas.

For the forecast, the tail of a weakening stationary front will
slowly move southeastward and exit the basin tonight while
becoming diffuse. Afterward, an expansive area of strong high
pressure will build west-southwestward from the central N Atlantic
over the area starting tonight and hold through the upcoming
week. Its related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh
east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds
will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting
Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above for pulsing gales in the
south-central Caribbean.

A broad ridge of high pressure extends from a 1034 mb high center
over the central Atlantic to the western Atlantic waters N of the
area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure
and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the
south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E
of 80W. Light to gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas
are in the 7-9 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 6-8
ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range.

For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades
and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern
Caribbean through the forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient
will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia beginning Mon night.
These winds will continue to pulse to gale-force at night through
the upcoming week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in
the Windward Passage late Mon night. Fresh to strong east winds
will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night.
Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic
through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon.
These seas will subside to just below 12 ft on Wed, then continue
to slowly subside through the rest of the forecast period.
Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh
trades continuing through the period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see Special Features above for more on significant swell.

A weakening frontal boundary extends southwestward from near
31N68W to 25N80W, while a trough ahead of it extends from 28N69W
to 22N74W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are
evident within 60 nm on either side of the front and trough.
Farther east, high pressure dominates, anchored by a 1034 mb high
centered near 33N39W. The pressure gradient between this high
center and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is
supporting fresh to trong trades over much of the waters S of 27N
and E of 55W. Rough to very rough seas are over these waters.
Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front W of Bermuda
to central Bahamas will weaken further as it slowly moves
southeastward reaching from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas
early on Mon as it becomes diffuse. Elsewhere, high pressure over
the central Atlantic will continue to maintain control over much
of the western Atlantic, while rough seas prevail over the
southeastern waters. A cold front is expected to enter the
northern waters during the early part of the week and gradually
shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly
winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are
forecast behind the front Mon through late Tue night north of 27N.
An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across the
north-central Atlantic by the middle of the upcoming week
resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of
the basin.

$$
ERA