RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Gale Waring:
Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir and
Tarfaya Marine Zones starting 14/12 UTC. For more details, please
refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their
website:
www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W.
The ITCZ continues from that point to 02S44W. Scattered moderate
convection is noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening stationary front meanders northwestward from southern
Florida to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Latest observations
along with composite satellite imagery reveal patchy dense fog is
present near northern Yucatan Peninsula, Naples Florida and along
the Texas/Louisiana coast. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and
seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including the
Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft
seas prevail for the central and eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to gentle
winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate
winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will
increase to fresh to strong speeds today ahead of a cold front
that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW winds
and rough seas are expected in the N-central and NE Gulf with
this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of
the area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad surface trough is generating scattered showers near
Hispaniola. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime persists across
much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 7 ft
seas are evident off northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE
to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the southeastern and
rest of the south-central basin, including the ABC Islands.
Moderate with fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at
the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Mostly gentle NE to E winds
and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail the rest of the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast
of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas
are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over
the Windward Passage and S of Dominican Republic this weekend as
a high pressure center passes N of the area and tightens the
pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas will prevail through early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N54W to 25N72W, then continues westward as a stationary
front to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are present
near and up to 100 nm northwest of the front. Farther east,
convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate
convection N of 22N between 47W and 61W. Near and north of the
Mona Passage, a surface trough is causing scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

For the western Atlantic north of 20N between 55W and the
Florida/southern Georgia coast, gentle to moderate SW to NW to NE
winds with 5 to 7 ft seas are evident. To the east, moderate to
fresh E to SSE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate north of 27N
between 44W and 63W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator
to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE
to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will
shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of the
front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida
on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the SE
U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are
expected in the wake of the front.

$$
ERA