RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 250401
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N20W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N20W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection
is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from the Tampa Bay area to 28N88W, followed
by a stationary front to SE Louisiana. Moderate to fresh easterly
winds and slight seas are found behind the front and east of 87W. The
rest of the Gulf is dominated by a 1021 mb high pressure system
centered near 28N91W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas
are occurring in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate across
the NE Gulf on Wed, while weak high pressure will again move over
the northeast Gulf Wed night through Fri. A trough over the Bay
of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night,
through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front
will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning and reach from
extreme S Florida to NE Mexico by Sun morning.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough is analyzed from 12N81W to 19N84W and
a few showers are seen in the central and NW Caribbean, with the
strongest convection occurring SW of Jamaica. The subtropical
ridge centered north of the area supports fresh to locally strong
NE winds and moderate seas off NW Colombia. Fresh NE-E winds and
moderate seas are evident off southern Hispaniola, Windward
Passage, the lee of Cuba and north of Honduras. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will support fresh to
locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward
Passage, and just south of Hispaniola overnight. Fresh to strong
winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia
tonight and persist through Sat, mainly at night, as the high
pressure moves slightly northeastward..

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front enters the SW North Atlantic near 31N65W and
continues southwestward to eastern Florida near 28N81W. Scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted near the front. The
pressure gradient between the ridge off the NE United States and
the aforementioned front results in fresh to near gale-force
easterly winds and rough to very rough seas behind the frontal
boundary. The remainder of the area (west of 55W) is dominated by
a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas.

In the far east Atlantic, a weakening 1011 mb low is nearly
stationary just S of the Canary Islands, inducing fresh to strong
N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 25W. Elsewhere,
moderate trades and moderate to occasionally rough seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach
from 31N64W to Vero Beach, Florida overnight, then begin to stall
and quickly weaken. Winds and seas will then diminish through Wed
night as the front drifts northward and dissipates. Moderate winds
and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region.
Looking ahead, another strong cold front will move into the waters
offshore of northeast Florida early Sat, and reach from 31N62W to
Miami by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough
to very rough seas will dominate all waters north of the front
through Sun night.

$$
Delgado