RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 04N13W to 01N33W and to 00N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak pressure gradient persist across the Gulf waters, supporting
moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin. Locally fresh
easterly winds are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula. Slight to
moderate seas are found over much of the basin. The southerly flow
in the western Gulf is lifting northward smoke from agricultural
fires in southern Mexico. Mariners are advised that this may
reduce the visibility in the area.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and
moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf
through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally
strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin,
north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through
Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a
strong cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this
weekend and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale
force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of
Tampico and Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to
strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in
the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Bermuda continues to
influence the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force
NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate
to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the
north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, and also the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south-central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of
Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the
forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the
Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell progresses through
the central tropical Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends southwestward from a storm-force
extratropical low that is well east of Newfoundland, to the
tropical Atlantic near 31N44W and continues southwestward to
26N53W, where it becomes a stationary front to 24N68W. A few
showers are noted near these boundaries. Moderate winds and rough
to very rough seas are occurring north of these boundaries.
Moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found north
of 28N and east of the cold front to 33W.

Meanwhile in the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and
seas of 5-7 ft are evident off Morocco and the Canary Islands.
Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge sustain moderate or weaker
winds and moderate seas. However, seas to 8 ft are present off NE
South America. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east
of about 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 70W
will slowly subside from west to east tonight into early Fri in
the wake of a weakening front currently extending from the 31N43W
to 23N68W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue
through tonight over the central basin as high pressure builds
over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S
to SW winds will occur offshore of northern Florida into this
weekend as a front passes north of the region. Moderate or weaker
winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong
cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on
Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected
in the wake of the front through early next week.

$$
Delgado