RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

669
AXNT20 KNHC 181028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Sep 18 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 20.0N 50.3W at 18/0900
UTC or 730 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at
13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum
sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking at
20 ft just northeast of the center. Scattered moderate convection
is noted swell northeast of the center from 13N to 16N between
40W and 50W. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next 48 hours, but some gradual intensification is forecast late
in the weekend.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 27W from 19N
southward across the western Cabo Verde Islands, moving west
around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 14N to
17N between 25W and 29W.

A eastern Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 69W from 22N
southward across eastern Hispaniola to northwestern Venezuela,
moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring across Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands and
nearby waters.

A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 87W from 21N
southward, moving west around 10 kt. With abundant tropical
moisture, scattered showers and isolated strong thunderstorms are
noted over the Gulf of Honduras, western Honduras, and Caribbean
waters W of 80W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 17N16W to 08N38W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from
03N-17N and E of 21W, and from 04N-08N between 32W-39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is over southern Florida. Convergent low-level
winds to its south are coupling with modest upper-level divergent
winds to trigger scattered heavy showers and isolated strong
thunderstorms are dominating western Cuba, the Great Bahama Bank
and the Florida Strait. Otherwise, a surface ridge extending
southwestward from a 1018 mb high off the Carolinas dominates the
rest of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E
winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are evident at the Florida Straits,
eastern Bay of Campeche/near Yucatan Peninsula and northwestern
Gulf. Mainly gentle NE to ESE winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail
for the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, high pressure will dominate the basin into the
weekend, supporting gentle to moderate east winds along with
slight seas. A mid and upper level trough over the far SE basin
will bring showers and thunderstorms to this area for the
remainder of the week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on the tropical waves
moving across the basin.

Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas are present
at the northwestern basin, Windward and Mona Passages, and near
the ABC Islands. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted
near Costa Rica, Panama and northwestern Colombia. Gentle with
locally moderate ENE to ESE winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea.

For the forecast, the tropical wave along 87W will continue moving
across the Gulf of Honduras, producing showers and thunderstorms
today. Another tropical wave in the east-central Caribbean will
bring showers and thunderstorms as it moves W over the next couple
of days. Gentle to moderate trades and moderate seas will prevail
into the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm
Gabrielle and the tropical wave moving across the eastern
Atlantic.

A subtropical high near 28N41W is sustaining gentle easterly winds
and moderate seas north of 27N between 35W and the northern
Florida/southern Georgia coast. For the tropical Atlantic from 13N
to 27N between 35W and the Bahamas/Lesser Antilles, outside the
direct influence of T.S. Gabrielle, moderate to fresh NE to E to
SE winds with moderate to rough seas are evident. For the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate SE
to SW winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, T.S. Gabrielle will move to 20.8N
51.7W this afternoon, 21.8N 53.6W Fri morning, 22.8N 55.7W Fri
afternoon, 24.0N 57.7W Sat morning, 25.3N 59.4W Sat afternoon, and
26.8N 60.7W Sun morning. Gabrielle will strengthen to a hurricane
over 30.2N 61.5W by early Mon.

$$
ERA