RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 121040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
East Atlantic Gale Warnings:
MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and
CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through
13/12Z, and for Canarias, the warning is valid from 12/15Z to
13/12Z. Please visit website:
wwmiws.wmo.int/ index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone near 09N13W, then runs
southwestward to 05.5N18.5W. The ITCZ meanders westward from
05.5N.518W to 06N37W to 03.5N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 07W and 32W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 32W
and 51W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weakening cold front has become nearly stationary through the
Straits of Florida to near extends westward from the Great Bahama
Bank across the Florida Straits to near 25N94W. Scattered showers
are present south of the front between western Cuba and the
Yucatan Peninsula. A few showers dot the waters just north of 20N
along a surface trough drifting westward across the central Bay of
Campeche. A 1019 mb high across the Florida Big Bend is
supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1 to 3
ft across the north- central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across the southern Gulf become southerly
across the W and NW waters, where seas are 2 to 4 ft.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate today. Elsewhere,
weak high pressure across the NE Gulf will slide eastward and
into the Atlantic through Sat to produce moderate to occasionally
fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate
or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of
the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter
the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds and
building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the
southern Gulf along 24N by Mon morning and move south of the
basin late Mon night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow is
triggering scattered to numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms across the Gulf of Honduras and extends northward to
near 20N. Another trough across the SW Caribbean is producing
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal
waters of Nicaragua west of 81W. A third trough is producing
scattered showers across the Mona Passage and northeastern
Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades and seas at 7
to 10 ft are occurring across the south-central to 80W. Moderate
to fresh ENE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found across the
north-central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to
E winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over
the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a
moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and
migrating high pressure to the north along 29N. Strong E winds
will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern
Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough
seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and
through the passages and into the eastern basin through Mon.
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean
early Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas
behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central
Cuba to N Belize Tue evening then begin to stall and weaken.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from just W o Bermuda across
30N69W and through the central Bahamas and into the Straits of
Florida. Patchy showers are found near and up to 60 nm east of
this feature. Another stronger cold front is parallel to the front
about 210 east of the first front and extends to the southeast
Bahamas. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
near and up to 180 nm east of this front, mainly north of 26N.
Scattered showers are noted at the central Atlantic near the
western end of a frontal boundary, north of 26N between 35W and
40W.

Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 11 ft seas prevail east of the
leading fronts, north of 27N between 48W and 62W, while moderate
to fresh NW to W winds prevail north of 28N and west of the
westernmost front, where seas are 7 to 11 ft in NW swell. East of
40W, moderate to fresh E to ESE winds with 10 to 12 ft seas in
large NW swell prevail along and north of a central Atlantic front.
A 1034 mg high is centered north of this boundary near 37N31W.
Across the rest of the Atlantic waters north of 24N between 65W
and the Florida/southern Georgia, gentle to moderate winds and
seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail. Across the tropical waters from 05N to
23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong E to ESE
trades with 8 to 11 ft seas persist.

For the forecast, the two frontal boundaries will progress
eastward and merge, extending from near 31N58W to the SE Bahamas
by Fri evening. Strong SW winds will occur ahead of the leading
front, generally north of 28N and east of 60W, into Fri afternoon.
Rough seas in SW swell will prevail ahead of the leading front
with a brief period of large NW swell expected north of 27N behind
the fronts through Sat morning. Elsewhere in the central
Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail E of 65W
through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough
seas there Sun through Mon. The next cold front is slated to move
off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with
increasing winds and quickly building seas expected behind the
front. The front is expected to reach from just E of Bermuda to
the central Bahamas by Mon morning, then weaken as it reaches from
29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning.

$$
Stripling