RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 140402
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu May 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has been introduced over the far eastern Atlantic
based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and
Hovmoller data. The wave is along 22W, south of 11N, moving
westward at 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis.

A tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of 13N, moving
westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep
convection at this time, except south of 04N where it is
interacting with the ITCZ.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 00N40W and then from 00N43W to 01N51W.
Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and west of
29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low
pres near 31N77W to central Florida and then to near northern
Yucatan. A few showers are seen in the SE Gulf waters and the
Florida Straits. The rest of the basin is under a weak high
pressure system and a continental dry airmass. The weak pressure
gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast, the stalled front extending from Fort Myers,
Florida to just north of the northeast portion of the Yucatan
Peninsula will drift south through Thu while weakening. Otherwise,
weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet
conditions through Thu. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the
NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri.
Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early
next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western
extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures
in west Texas. .

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1029 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic is forcing fresh
to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south-
central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the
north-central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to
gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N
of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong
trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds
offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh
trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters,
pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Mon
night. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the
tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low
pres near 31N77W to central Florida. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this boundary,
especially north of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas
of 5-7 ft are observed north of 28N and between 65W and 75W. The
remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by
an extensive subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and
seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 28N and between 55W and 75W.

The pressure gradient between the 1035 mb high pressure system
well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa
support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas from 13N to
26N and east of 30W. Meanwhile in the rest of the central and
eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and
55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail.
Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off
northeastern Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will
move off the northeast Florida coast on Thu. The cold front will
extend from near 31N69W to 26N72W and weakening stationary front
to near the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to
26N70W early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from
near 31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the
area shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong
southerly winds are expected N of 27N through Fri while gradually
lifting N of the area.

$$
Delgado