RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

105
AXNT20 KNHC 142250
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 18.7N 45.5W at 14/2100
UTC or 1240 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 10 kt.
Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained
wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated
to be around 20 ft (6.0 m). Scattered to numerous moderate
convection is noted in clusters within 330 nm in the SE quadrant
and 60 nm in the NW quadrant of Lorenzo. Lorenzo is moving toward
the northwest. A turn to the north is expected tonight, followed
by a northeastward motion on Wed and Thu. Continued weakening is
expected, and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate within a few days.
Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest
Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An eastern Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed near 24W, from
16N southward across portions of the western Cabo Verde Islands,
moving W at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong
convection is noted on conventional satellite imagery from 04N to
16N between 20W and 30W.

Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 34.5W, from 14N
southward, moving W around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is noted from 06N to 09.5N between 32W and 36.5W.

A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 57W, from 17N southward
to well N of Guyana, moving W at 5-10 kt. Scattered to numerous
moderate convection is noted from 11N to 15.5N between 55W and
58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 12N16W southwestward to 10N18W to 10N26W to 07N32W. The ITCZ
extends from 07N35W to 11N45.5W to the S of Tropical Storm
Lorenzo. Other than the convection described above, scattered
moderate is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N between 08W and 19W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Fair weather prevails over the Gulf basin today as weak high
pressure over the Ohio and Mississippi Valleys extends into the
north-central basin in the wake of a cold front that moved SE of
the basin. Winds are moderate or weaker across the basin. Seas are
1-3 ft N of 26N, and 2-4 ft S of 26N, except locally higher
through and near the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region
through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds
and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are
forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central
Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens
some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the
end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts
eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is
expected to reach the NW Gulf waters on Sun.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Deep layered troughing across the NW Caribbean is combining with
in inverted low level trough just NE of the border of Honduras and
Nicaragua to support widely scattered moderate convection from 17N
northward to the W of Jamaica. Some scattered showers and
thunderstorms are near the NW coast of Colombia with low pressure
near 11N76W and the monsoon trough westward across Central America
and into the Eastern Pacific Ocean. A weak pressure pattern is
across the basin with a cold front in the SW N Atlantic to western
Cuba disrupting high pressure off to the SE, to the N of the
Greater Antilles near 24N65W. Winds are moderate or weaker across
the basin outside of any convection. Seas are 2-4 ft E of 77W, and
mainly 1-2 ft W of 77W, except 3-5 ft near and through the
Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW
Caribbean through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to locally
fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the
front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead
of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will
support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over
much of the basin through the work week. Meanwhile, Tropical
Storm Lorenzo is E of area near 18.7N 45.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is
moving northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with
gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please refer to the Special Features section for details on
Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic.

A complex extratropical gale-force system well offshore the U.S.
Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas extends a cold front through 31N67W to
across portions of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida to
western Cuba, with a trailing front approximately 90 nm behind.
Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible within
240 nm SE of the leading front per convectional satellite imagery.
Moderate to fresh winds are N of 27N between 62W and 80W near the
fronts with seas of 5-8 ft in associated northerly swell. A 1006
mb low is well to the E near 29N51W with a trough extending SW of
the low to 23N60W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is found
within 300 nm in the SE semicircle. Fresh to strong winds are N of
24N to the E of the trough and low to 42W.

A stationary front associated with the complex system mentioned
above extends well away from the parent lows through 1004 mb low
pressure at 31N45W to 29N35W then off to the NE through 31N31W.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are from 26N to
31N to the E of 44W. Moderate to fresh SW winds are from 25N to
29N to the W of 24W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across
the remainder of the Tropical Atlantic waters away from Lorenzo
and under weak ridging N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Seas of
5-8 ft, highest near the convection with the low, are found from
25N to 31N between 29W and 58W. Seas of 3-4 ft are found under a
ridge from the Canary Islands SW to near 20N29W anchored by a 1016
mb high near 23N26W. Seas of 4-7 ft in mixed swells are across
the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast, a cold front extending from 31N70W to SE
Florida will move SE across the forecast waters through Thu before
dissipating. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central
Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N59W to eastern Cuba by Thu
morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on
either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by tonight.
These marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through
late in the week. A reinforcing front will follow the main front,
and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida
by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is E of area
near 18.7N 45.5W at 5 PM EDT, and is moving northwest at 10 kt.
Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the
minimum central pressure is 1005 mb.

$$
Lewitsky