RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 101614
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today,
and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the night-time hours tonight and again Wed night. Seas of 8-12 ft
are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest
High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/1200 UTC at least.
Very rough seas are likely with these winds. Please refer to the
Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa
near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 04N20W. The ITCZ extends
from 04N20W to 02S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 02N to 05N
between 13W and 17W, and from 00N to 02N between 40W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic and across the
northern Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh SW
winds and 3-5 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle breezes
and 1-3 ft over the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin
will prevail through Wed night. The pressure gradient between the
ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern
Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front
will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before
moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the
front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will
build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving
thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning
in effect for the south-central Caribbean.

Recent buoy observations and overnight scatterometer satellite
data confirm fresh to strong winds off Colombia, the Gulf of
Venezuela, and off Cabo Beata on the southern coast of Hispaniola.
Moderate to fresh trade winds are evident elsewhere, except gentle
to moderate breezes over the northwest Caribbean. Seas are 7-9 ft
off Colombia, 5-7 ft elsewhere, except 2-4 over the northwest
Caribbean. A sharp upper trough extending from the Turks and
Caicos Islands to Costa Rica is supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms around Jamaica.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a
Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the
eastern basin through today, and the central basin through Wed
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours tonight and Wed night. Fresh to
strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the
upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse
near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu.
Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee
of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade- wind swell from
the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser
Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve
slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure
gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW
Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered east
of Bermuda to the coast of northeast Florida. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas south of 24N
and west of 60W, and gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas elsewhere.
Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 42W from 20N to
30N, associated with an upper low over that area. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low and
surface trough are active from 22N to 26N between 35W and 45W.
Divergent flow aloft is also supporting scattered showers and
thunderstorms from 14N to 20N between 25W and 30W. Fresh to strong
NE to E winds and 7-10 ft seas are active east of the trough,
north of 20N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas are
noted elsewhere across the basin east of 60W, except for fresh
trade winds and seas to 8 ft over the tropical Atlantic west of
50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south
of 25N through Wed, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the
Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these
winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through this
afternoon. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere
across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off
northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will
move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and building
seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the
northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across
the basin for the end of the week into the weekend.

$$
Christensen