RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 092047
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues
southwestward to 05N16W. The ITCZ continues from 05N16W to 02N37W
to near 03N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N
to 10N between 26W and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Fresh to locally
strong winds are over the SE Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are SE
of a line from N Florida to Veracruz, Mexico. Light to gentle
winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range over the SE
Gulf and over the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, seas of 4-6 ft are
noted.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will
continue in the Bay of Campeche and the southeastern Gulf through
this evening, in the wake of a front that has stalled over the
northwestern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to
NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin
by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United
States. The front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early
Thu, with winds turning to the N in the wake of the front.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected
over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high
pressure prevails over the basin.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front is analyzed from near western Cuba to the
Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found along
the stationary front. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the
central and eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds
elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and
eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh E winds and moderate
seas will prevail over the central and eastern Caribbean today.
Widespread fresh trades and rough seas are expected to develop
over this region on Wed as a tightening pressure gradient develops
between the Colombian low, a stalled front in the northwest basin
and building high pressure in the central Atlantic. Winds will
pulse to strong speeds offshore of northern Colombia and in the
Gulf of Venezuela nightly through this weekend, and winds may
reach near-gale force at times. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trades will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the
passages into this weekend. A new E swell will support rough seas
over this region Wed through this weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda through the
central Bahamas. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection
is noted along the front. Fresh to near gale winds are N of 27N
and E of the front to 46W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and
W of the front to 70W. Seas of 8-11 ft are over these waters.
Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere west of the front, with
seas of 4-7 ft, except to 9 ft north of 30W. The remainder of the
discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a
1021 mb high centered near 27N33W. Light to gentle winds are in
the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S
of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in
the 8-12 ft range in NW to N swell east of 50W, and 5-7 ft
elsewhere.

For the forecast, the front will progress eastward through the
central Atlantic this week. Strong to locally near-gale force SW
winds and rough seas will occur north of 28N and east of 60W ahead
of the cold front through late tonight, with widespread fresh to
strong W to NW winds expected in the wake of the front north of
30N and east of 65W. Winds will subside from west to east tonight
into early Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand
southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed,
supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of
25N by Wed afternoon. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be possible
north of 30N and east of 70W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly
subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Fresh to
strong SW winds and rough seas will develop offshore of northern
Florida by Wed evening, ahead of a cold front moving over the
southern United States. The cold front is slated to push offshore
early Thu, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected
in the wake of the front.

$$
AL