RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 030617
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun May 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0550 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A late frontal boundary stalls from
near Cape Canaveral, Florida to 24N88W where it transitions to a
cold front that continues to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to
gale force northerly winds are behind the front S of Tampico where
seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range. Elsewhere behind the front, N
to NE winds are moderate to fresh, and seas moderate to rough.
The front will slow as it reaches from SW Florida to the eastern
Bay of Campeche Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by
Mon morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue behind
the front, near gale close to the coast near Tampico, and gales
along the coast near Veracruz tonight into Sun morning before
diminishing Sun afternoon. Mon and Tue should see quiescent
conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Currently, a wide band of
showers and thunderstorms related to the front is over portions of
South Florida and the SE Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and higher seas are likely within this convective band.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 35W, from
01N to 11N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near the southern tip of the wave
axis from 05S to 03N between 32W and 44W. The northern portion of
the wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment
which inhibit other impacts.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Guinea coast
near 10N15W, then continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends
from 03N19W to NE Brazil near 00N46W. Aside from the convection
associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong
convection is ongoing offshore Liberia.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a Gale Warning for the southern Gulf.

As referenced above, a frontal boundary stalls from near Cape
Canaveral, Florida to 24N88W where it transitions to a cold front
that continues to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale force
winds and rough seas are behind it mainly S of Tampico. An active
band of showers and thunderstorms is over South Florida and the
SE Gulf. Elsewhere behind the front, moderate to fresh N to NE
winds and moderate to rough seas prevail.

For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for
more details. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow
will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed, locally strong near
the Yucatan. Looking ahead, another cold front may reach the NW
Gulf by Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure in the
Atlantic located near 25N57W and a 1009 mb low pressure over
northern Colombia is sustaining fresh trades in the central and
eastern Caribbean along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to
strong E to SE winds are in the NW basin, mainly off Belize and in
the Gulf of Honduras along with seas to 6 ft. Convection continues
to flare-up over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with a pre-
frontal trough. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is
extending from the peninsula to the NW Caribbean, as well as the
Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, the E Pacific monsoon is supporting
scattered showers offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and
southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean and moderate to fresh
trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the
next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of
Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the
Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras
to increase Tue through Thu.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front off of the SE United States coast extends from
31N77W to Cape Canaveral and into the Gulf of America. A broad
band of showers and tstms continue to affect the central and
southern Florida offshore waters as well as the northen Bahamas
offshores. Broad surface ridging dominates elsewhere in the
subtropical waters where winds are mainly moderate or weaker, exc
except for fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are
moderate basin-wide.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will
reach from near 31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from
31N60W to a low forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The low will ride
along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue
morning with the front extending southwestward to the central
Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect
fresh to strong SW winds south of the front tonight and Sun,
followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and
Tue. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiescent Tue night
through Thu. The next cold front may approach the SE United States
coast by Thu night with the potential for increasing winds north
of the Bahamas again.

$$
Ramos