RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

012
AXNT20 KNHC 141052
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Dec 14 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1020 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force NW to N winds and rough
seas of 12 to 16 ft in N swell are expected over portions of the
northwestern tropical Atlantic Sun evening through Mon morning, in
the wake of a cold front expected to move off the coast of the
southeastern United States early this afternoon. Widespread
strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are
expected from the Bahamas, northward and west of 50W through Tue
morning, then will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean
Tue night. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed
through Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Strong to near-gale force
N winds, associated with a strong storm system that has move
inland across NW Africa, has generated a significant area of
large, long period N to NE swell in the eastern Atlantic Ocean.
Seas 12 ft or greater are expected north of 10N and east of 45W
through Sun afternoon, with 12 ft seas expanding farther west to
50W by early Mon. Seas will peak near 22 ft near the Canary
Islands. The swell direction is N to NE at 13-19 sec periods.
Seas will slowly diminish from northeast to southwest early this
week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by
MeteoFrance at:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2 for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and extends
to 05N20W. The ITCZ continues from 05N20W to 00.5N50W. Scattered
to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 01N
to 11N east of 31W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from
02.5N to 05.5N between 37W and 52W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A middle to upper-level trough is moving slowly eastward across
the southeast Gulf this morning, and interacting with abundant low
level moisture lifting northward across the Bahamas, south Florida
and the Straits of Florida to produce scattered showers and
thunderstorms across that area. A surface trough is analyzed along
the western coast of Florida to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to
locally fresh E to SE winds prevail through the Straits of
Florida. Farther west, a surface trough is noted in the western
Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between these features, and
weak ridging to the northeast, is supporting moderate NE winds in
the eastern Bay, as observed on recent scatterometer data.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail over the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast, weak high pressure located over the W Atlantic
will continue to slide northeastward and into the central Atlantic
today. This will allow the next cold front to enter the northern
Gulf this morning. Strong northerly winds and quickly building
seas will follow the front. This front is expected to reach the
south- central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of
the basin Mon night. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region
in the wake of the front Tue through Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A 1008 mb low prevails over northern Colombia, with weak ridging
across the western Atlantic to the north of the Caribbean. The
pressure gradient between these features is supporting widespread
fresh trade winds and 7 to 8 ft seas over the central and eastern
basin, as observed via recent scatterometer satellite data. Strong
E winds are noted offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of
Venezuela, with seas to 10 ft occurring west of the strongest
winds. In the northwestern Caribbean, Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms prevail, as moisture associated with an old
front is shifting westward across the area. Moderate E winds and
moderate seas prevail there. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong E
winds and rough seas in E swell continue over the Atlantic waters
and the passages into the eastern Caribbean. Scattered to numerous
moderate to strong convection is occurring along the eastern
Pacific monsoon trough as it extends eastward along 10N and into
NW Colombia.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds, and moderate to
rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through midday
today before winds begin to diminish as Atlantic high pressure
shifts well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong
trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the
tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into
the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will
enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon, accompanied by
increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is
expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then
will begin to stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High
pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed night through Thu
night to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the
central Caribbean.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on
GALE WARNINGS for the western Atlantic Ocean, and a SIGNIFICANT
SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from 31N50W southwestward through the
central Bahamas and into central Cuba, and has begun to drift
northwestward in recent hours to the west of 70W. Widespread low
to middle level moisture associated with the front is shifting
north and northwestward across the waters from the front to 30N,
and interacting favorably with the upper trough across the SE
Gulf of America and upper ridging to it's east to produce
scattered showers and thunderstorms along and north of the front.
Moderate S winds are occurring north of this front as high
pressure shifts off to the northeast. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft in
N to NW swell are noted in the central Atlantic north of 26N and
east of 65W. To the east of the front, a 1029 mb high is centered
near 32N33W and extends a broad ridge south and southwestward to
the southeast Bahamas. The pressure gradient to the south
continues to yield fresh to strong trade winds across the tropical
Atlantic south of 25N between the Cabo Verde Islands and the
Lesser Antilles. Widespread rough seas in E swell cover most of
the open Atlantic Ocean, with seas over 12 ft in N swell and
strong to near-gale force winds occurring offshore of northwestern
and western Africa and extending to 40W. Please see the SPECIAL
FEATURES section above for additional information.

For the forecast, a Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore
waters E of NE Florida, E of 79W. A strong cold front is forecast
to move off the coast of the southeastern United States by midday
today, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and
quickly building seas through Mon morning. Gale-force winds are
expected immediately behind the front Sun evening through early
Mon. The front is expected to reach from just E of Bermuda to the
NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and
then begin to stall from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba
by Tue morning. Large N swell will build in across the regional
waters behind the front Sun night through Tue before subsiding.
Elsewhere, a stationary front currently extending from 29N55W
through the central Bahamas and across NW Cuba is accompanied by
active showers and thunderstorms. This boundary will drift
northward today and gradually dissipate.

$$
Stripling