RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 291729
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1710 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A surface trough, currently
analyzed from 15N to 25N along 44W, will merge with another
surface trough currently analyzed from 06N to 12N along 50W. The
combined trough will advance westward across the tropical and
subtropical central Atlantic, and bring fresh to strong E winds
across most of the waters from 15N to 30N east of 60W through
Monday. These winds will build seas to 8-12 ft in the described
area by Monday. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to
diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This
pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough
across the central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N13W and
extends to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 05N19W to
07N48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09N
east of 25W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina provides for
return flow across the Gulf, with fresh to strong wind speeds
noted in the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida and
Yucatan Channel, and the NW Gulf offshore Texas. Winds are
moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are 4-7 ft across the Gulf,
with highest seas analyzed in the Straits of Florida, Yucatan
Channel, and offshore Texas. Seas may locally peak to 8 ft in
these areas, as indicated by recent satellite altimeter data.

For the forecast, aside from the NW Gulf waters, winds and seas
will diminish tonight as high pressure slides east into the
Atlantic. The cold front will move offshore Texas Sun, then stall
along the far northern Gulf Mon. Low pressure will form along
along the front Mon night near the Texas coast, then race NE
toward the eastern U.S. coast. This will allow reinforcing cold
air to send the front through the Gulf into the middle of the
week. Looking ahead, the front may move N as a warm front ahead of
another low pressure forming over Texas Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Scattered showers continue along a stationary front that extends
from central Cuba to central Belize. Recent scatterometer data
indicates fresh to strong NW winds north of the front, including
within the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, a more relaxed pressure
gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean provides for
moderate to locally fresh trades. Seas are 4-7 ft across the
basin. Scattered showers and tstorms are noted in the central and
SW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will dissipate and the high pressure
shifts eastward into the western Atlantic late today, allowing
winds and seas to diminish and conditions to remain relatively
benign into the middle of next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from Bermuda to the central Bahamas
and central Cuba. Scattered showers and tstorms are along the
front. Strong high pressure centered over North Carolina continues
to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across
the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N
to 29N between 66W and 76W. Seas are 4-7 ft elsewhere in the W
Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL
FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually
dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the
northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong
southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N into the middle
of next week, ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast
Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from
Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and
rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters
northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun into Tue night.

$$
Mahoney