RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 081745
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Dec 8 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front that moved
into western portion of the Gulf last night presently extends
along a position from just south of Tallahassee, FL southwestward
to near 20N96W and then inland over Mexico. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms follow the front near and just offshore of
the Mexican coast. The front will sweep southeastward across the
rest of the basin through Tue, perhaps stalling from near western
Cuba and the Straits of Florida by Tue evening. Fresh to strong
northwest to north winds and rough seas are expected to follow
behind the front across the western and northern Gulf. These
winds will reach near-gale to gale-force off Veracruz this
afternoon into this evening along with seas building to around 12
ft (4 M). A 1604 UTC scatterometer pass indicated gale-force winds
in convection immediately following the cold front. Seas following
the cold front are currently analyzed at 5-8 ft. Afterward, winds
and seas will gradually diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls
from near western Cuba and the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan
Peninsula by Tue evening, and as high pressure settles across the
central Gulf.

Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of
southern Sierra Leone and extends to near 05N18W. The ITCZ then
continues from 05N18W to 01.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection
is seen S of 07N between 23W and 37W, with scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms seen along these features and E of 23W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
cold front that will bring gale conditions to areas offshore of
Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon.

For the remainder of the Gulf ahead of the cold front, a surface
trough is analyzed from the eastern Bay of Campeche into the SE
Gulf. Scattered moderate convection is seen in the vicinity of
the trough. Another cold front segment extends from near Sarasota,
FL to near 25N87W, with scattered showers in the area. Otherwise,
moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail away from the
cold front.

For the forecast, a strong cold front extending from the Florida
Panhandle to the western Bay of Campeche will progress
southeastward over the basin early this week. Gale force winds and
localized very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz this
afternoon and evening, with strong winds continuing in this region
into early Tue. Widespread strong N winds and rough seas will
occur in the wake of the front over the central and western Gulf
into early Tue, with mainly fresh winds and moderate seas expected
in the eastern basin. Winds and seas will diminish from northwest
to southeast through Tue as the front stalls near the Yucatan
Peninsula and eventually dissipates around midweek. Looking ahead,
weak high pressure will build over the basin later this week,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and slight seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic ridging continues to influence the pressure gradient
across the basin. It is presently allowing for moderate to fresh
trade winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the eastern and
central sections of the basin while light to gentle winds and seas
of 3 to 5 ft are elsewhere across the Caribbean.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and
moderate seas are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean
through Tue as weak ridging prevails over the central Atlantic.
Winds may pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela and
offshore of northern Colombia by Tue night, and locally rough seas
may develop near and to the west of these winds. An increasing
pressure gradient between a weakening cold front approaching the
northwestern Caribbean and low pressure in the south-central basin
will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the
central Caribbean for mid to late week. Elsewhere, a persistent E
swell will continue to lead to rough seas over the Atlantic waters
and passages of the Lesser Antilles into early Wed before seas
slightly subside. A new mixed N and E swell will renew rough seas
over this region late Wed through the rest of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A complex frontal boundary in the W Atlantic is analyzed from
31N36W along 30/31N to a 1010 mb low pres near 30N72W, with the
boundary then extending southwestward to the FL coast near Port
St. Lucie. Scattered moderate convection is seen ahead of this
front generally N of 27N and W of 69W. A trough runs from north to
south through another frontal low near 28N78W, and is also kicking
off scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bahamas.
A scatterometer pass from 1504 UTC indicated strong to near gale
force SW winds ahead of the front generally N of 26N and W of 70W.
Gale-force winds are occurring in the pre-frontal convection. To
the north, Another weak cold front reaches from 31N77W to near
Daytona Beach, FL. Moderate to fresh NW winds are following this
front. In the East Atlantic, a pre- frontal trough runs from
30N35W to 26N47W, with scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms seen along and ahead of this trough out to about
28W. Marine conditions in this region, confirmed by scatterometer
and altimeter data, are characterized by fresh to strong SW winds
and seas of 12-16 ft in NW swell N of 26N between 20W and 45W.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic, surface ridging prevails. Fresh to
strong trades and 6-9 ft seas are prevalent across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N. From 20N to 26N and E of 45W, moderate or
weaker winds and seas of 6-10 ft in NW swell prevail. For the
remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from
30.5N72.5W to central Florida will progress eastward early this
week, and fresh to strong SW winds are expected ahead of the front
north of 27N through Tue. Rough seas in W swell will develop in
this region east of 70W today, and expand eastward into the
central Atlantic by tonight. Very rough seas over 12 ft will be
possible north of 30N and east of 62W by Tue morning. A second,
stronger cold front pushing off the coast of the southeastern
United States will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, and
widespread fresh to strong N to NW winds are expected in the wake
of the front, generally north of 27N and west of 70W by late
tonight, with these winds also expanding eastward toward the
central Atlantic through Tue. A new N swell will support rough
seas over the northwest tropical Atlantic by late tonight, before
merging with the aforementioned rough seas in the central basin on
Tue. Winds will diminish from west to east Tue into early Wed,
with rough seas slowly subsiding through late week. Looking ahead,
fresh to locally strong SW winds may develop off the coast of
Florida mid to late week as a low pressure system moves off the
east coast of the U.S.

$$
Adams