RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 141741
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sat Mar 14 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A strong cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf by Sun night.
As the front moves across the basin through early next week, gale-
force NW winds will develop in the wake of the front, mainly W of
90W. Peak sustained winds of 35 to 45 kt, with gusts to storm-
force and very rough seas of up to 15 ft, can be expected offshore
of Veracruz. These conditions will dissipate by late Mon.

Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Guinea near
09N13W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that
point to 03S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and
within 150 nm on either side of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A frontal remnant trough is analyzed through the Florida Straits,
with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms developing along
the trough axis. Ridging prevails across the Gulf otherwise, with
gentle to moderate trades and slight seas prevalent basin-wide.

For the forecast, a frontal remnant trough extends through the
Florida Straits. A strong cold front is expected to move into the
NW Gulf Sun night, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon
night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by
late Tue. Strong to gale- force N winds will follow the front
along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale-force winds will be
possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico
on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Veracruz may attain
gusts to storm- force. In the wake of the front, high pressure
will build across the region into midweek.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia is supporting pulsing
fresh to strong trades across the south-central basin. Rough seas
are expected with these winds, mainly offshore Colombia. Moderate
to fresh E trade winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere E of
80W, while gentle to moderate E winds and slight seas are noted W
of 80W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high
pressure and lower pressure in Colombia will support pulsing
fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean today. New
high pressure will build westward across the west and central
Atlantic on Sun, with the resulting pressure gradient leading to
fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the
Tropical N Atlantic on Sun to the eastern and central Caribbean,
including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken
by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A frontal remnant trough is analyzed from the Florida Straits to
the northern Bahamas to the waters offshore SW Bermuda. Scattered
moderate convection is developing along and near the trough axis.
Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of ridging
from the 1034 mb Azores high. Fresh to strong trades and seas of
6-10 ft prevail across much of the waters E of 60W. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas prevail W of 60W and S of 24N.
Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail
elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal remnant trough extends
from near 31N70W to the Straits of Florida. Atlantic high pressure
will build west- southwestward toward the Bahamas through the
weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in
response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S.
southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near
31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue.
Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over
the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front.
Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue.
To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will
impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly
subsiding during midweek.

$$
Adams