RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)

000
AXNT20 KNHC 051826 CCA
TWDAT

Corrected Valid Time

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings...

A Strong Cold Front:
A strong cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast today is
going to produce widespread fresh to near gale-force SW to NW
winds off eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. By this evening,
these winds near 28N76W will reach gale-force, along with 9 to 11
ft seas. As the cold front pushes farther eastward Fri and Fri
night, gale-force winds will spread into the central Atlantic,
north of 27N between 60W and 70W. Peak seas will also build to
between 12 and 15 ft. This area of gale-force winds and very rough
seas will shift farther eastward on Sat, and then northeastward
to north of 31N on Sat night.

A Deepening Low Pressure:
A low pressure system is expected to enter the Atlantic off the
North Carolina coast on Fri night, then rapidly deepen as it
tracks eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large
area of westerly gale- force winds north of 27N between 62W and
72W. Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going
to move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with
seas build higher to between 22 and 30 ft. Once the low has
pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic,
conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
Seas at 12 to 16 ft in large NW swell, north of 27N and east of
45W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift
east of 35W by early Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
all three events above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea,
then curves southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ continues west-
southwestward from 03N19W to 00N38W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring near both features from 01S to 07N
between 10W and 33W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front curves southwestward from Clearwater Beach, Florida
to Tampico, Mexico. Fresh to near gale-force N to NNE winds and
rough seas to 11 ft follow this front. Moderate to fresh W to SW
winds are ahead of the front in the far SE portion of the basin
and moderate to fresh N to NW winds are across the E Bay of
Campeche.

For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to move southward
across the Gulf waters through this afternoon. The front will
continue to bring fresh to near gale-force N wind and rough seas
across much of the Gulf through early this evening when conditions
are forecast to improve from west to east as high pressure builds
across the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh NW winds will follow
another weaker cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf
Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the
northern Gulf in the wake of the front and will remain in control
of the weather pattern across the basin through Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surfarce trough extends from south-central Cuba to offshore
Nicaragua and Honduras near 15N81W. Scattered showers and tstms
are noted near this feature, along with strong NW winds noted in
a recent satellite scatterometer pass to the west of the trough.
Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the Atlantic
subropical ridge and the low pressure over NW Colombia continues
to support a broad area of fresh to locally strong trade winds
over the central Caribbean where seas are up to 9 ft.

For the forecast, a cold front currently moving across the Gulf
of America, will reach the northwest Caribbean early this
afternoon. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow
this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras tonight and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it
will start to weaken. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas in
the SW Caribbean associated with the front will persist through
Sat, diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale
Warnings and Significant Swell.

A cold front has emerged off northeast Florida this morning,
bringing fresh to strong W to NW winds north of the Bahamas and
mainly west of 75W. In the far eastern portion of the basin, a cold
front extends from 31N15W to 25N28W to 22N48W where it stalls and
then continues SE to the northern Leeward Islands. The remainder
subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge
centered by a 1025 mb high near 31N45W, supporting mainly moderate
eastery winds across the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front moving off northeast
Florida this morning will reach from Bermuda to the Windward
Passage by early Fri, from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola by early
Sat, before stalling and weakening from 22N55W to the Leeward
Islands by early Sun. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough
seas will folow the front across the waters north of 28N Fri
through Sun. A weak reinforcing front will move off the northeast
Florida coast early Sat, and from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas
and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and dissipate along 22N
through early next week. Wave heights will gradually subside from
west to east early next week.

$$
Mora