RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 202128
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2100 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N15W to 00N23W. The ITCZ
continues from 00N23W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is
within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 16W and 23W. Scattered
moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 00N to 05N
between 10W and 17W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends westward from Naples, Florida to
21N95W. A morning scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to
strong winds are north of the front, although more recent buoy
observations indicate these winds may be diminishing this
afternoon. Similarly, earlier altimeter satellite data indicated
seas to 8 ft over the northern Gulf, but buoys are showing seas
are largely below 8 ft. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over
much of the remainder of the waters, with 4-6 ft seas.

For the forecast, the western portion of the front will gradually
dissipate over the central and western Gulf, while the eastern
portion will resume moving southward and move across Cuba and the
Yucatan Channel, before stalling along about 21N Wed and
dissipating early Thu. Gentle to moderate southeasterly winds will
return to the Gulf on Thu.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The cold front moving across the Gulf and western Atlantic is
displacing and weakening the typical subtropical ridge that
governs the trade wind flow across the Caribbean. This pattern is
supporting gentle to moderate E trade winds across the basin this
afternoon. Seas are 5-6 ft over the eastern Caribbean, and 2-4 ft
elsewhere. No significant shower or thunderstorm activity is
noted at this time.

For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds will develop Tue night
and Wed night across the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba,
associated with a late-season cold front moving slowly across
Cuba. The front is expected to dissipate across eastern Cuba early
Thu. Tranquil marine conditions are expected across the entire
basin Fri and Sat.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the northern
Bahamas to South Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are
active along the front. Fresh to strong NE winds with 7-10 ft seas
are evident north of the front. Farther east, a few showers and
thunderstorms are also active along a trough ahead of the front
extending from 30N68W to the central Bahamas. A broad ridge
dominates the remainder of the discussion area, anchored by 1028
mb high pressure over the north- central Atlantic west of the
Azores near 38N41W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate
winds and seas of 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas will follow the front as it continues moving
southeastward, reaching from near Bermuda to the Florida Keys
early tonight, from 31N60W to the NW coast of Cuba by Tue
afternoon, and then begin to stall and weaken from 31N55W to
25N60W to eastern Cuba along 21N Wed morning. Winds will diminish
Wed as the front stalls and dissipates along 21N by early Thu.
Weak high pressure will settle in between northeast Florida and
Bermuda Thu through Sat, in the wake of the front. Large N to NE
swell will linger near the weakening front Tue night through Thu
morning, including waters near the Windward Passage.

$$
Christensen