RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290605
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0600 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western Atlantic Gale Warning and Large Swell: A strong cold
front extends from south of Bermuda to near Cape Canaveral, FL. NE
winds behind the front are currently near-gale-force with frequent
gusts to gale-force, with peak seas off of NE Florida and Georgia
now peaking at 12-15 ft per a 2300 UTC altimeter pass. Winds are
expected to diminish below gale-force shortly. The front is is
forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and
from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over
the SE waters on Tue.

Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ
then continues from that point to the coast of Brazil at 03S39W.
Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 10W and
38W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from Tampa Bay to northeastern Mexico.
Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds behind
the front and E of 87W. Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail
elsewhere across the basin. Seas in the northern Gulf are
increasing to heights of 4-8 ft behind the cold front, while 2-5
ft seas prevail ahead of the front.

For the forecast, a cold front stretches from near Tampa Bay,
Florida to 24N90W to just N of Tampico, Mexico. Strong to near
gale force NE winds follow the front over the NE basin where seas
are moderate to 7 ft. The front will reach South Florida and exit
the SE of the basin Sun morning. As the front moves southward,
fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will
continue to develop over the eastern Gulf through late Sun. The
pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the
southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of
the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Gulf cold
front and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E
winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, as well as in the
northern Caribbean Passages. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over
these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas
prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms prevail across Jamaica, Hispaniola and
eastern Cuba, and their adjacent coastal waters.

For the forecast, the gradient of pressure between a ridge
extending to the northern Caribbean and the low pressure over NW
Colombia will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to
E winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through Wed night. Fresh
to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage,
and south of Hispaniola will prevail through the end of the
forecast period due to strong high pressure that will build in the
wake of a cold front moving through the SW N Atlantic waters
through Wed.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE
WARNING.

A surface trough analyzed from 31N58W to 21N61W is supporting
widely scattered showers and thunderstorms from the trough axis
eastward to about 40W, between 20N and 31N. A broad surface ridge
continues across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic
waters, centered on a 1041 mb high over the NE Atlantic. Moderate
to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the central and eastern
basin into the tropics. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are
mainly light to gentle ahead of the approaching cold front, except
for moderate to fresh E-NE winds over the Great Bahama Bank,
including the approaches of the Windward Passage.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front extends from
just west of Bermuda SW to just south of Cape Canaveral. The front
will reach from 31N64W to West Palm Beach early Sun morning, from
29N55W to Hispaniola by early Mon morning, stalls from 25N55W to
the Dominican Republic early Tue morning before it dissipates late
on Wed. Strong high pressure is building in the wake of the
front. This will continue to bring strong with frequent gusts to
gale- force winds to the offshores N of 21N, and rough to very
rough seas through Thu night.


$$
Adams