RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea
will support gale-force NE winds tonight and through early Thu
morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to
pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week.
Rough seas are forecast with these winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 01N37W and to 01S48W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 29W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the
Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds
and moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds
and moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the
Florida Straits due to a dissipating stationary front.

For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW
Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building
seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may
bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night,
then near Veracruz on Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the
coast of Colombia.

Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a strong subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic supports moderate to locally
strong easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the north-central and
NE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally
fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the SE
Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds
and moderate seas are evident.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue to pulse tonight
and through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia.
Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through
the end of the week. A surface trough, and associated area of
moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands this evening, and
over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This
is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N55W to 28N63W, followed by a
dissipating stationary front to the central Bahamas and Florida
Straits. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The tropical
Atlantic is dominated by an extensive, strong ridge north of
Bermuda, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds
and rough to locally rough seas south of 27N and east of 65W. The
strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 20N and
between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of 65W.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are
prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and
divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east
of 47W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
east of 65W through Thu. A weakening stationary front extends from
31N57W to 24N80W. This front will drift N and gradually dissipate
through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will
continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida through tonight. The next cold front
will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh
to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of 75W.

$$
Delgado