RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 071040
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to
04.5N18W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N18W to 06.5N54W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 50W and 53W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Ridging extends over the Gulf, stemming from a 1017 mb high
centered near 26N87.5W, and a 1018 mb high centered near 26N83W.
Moderate E winds are noted in the eastern Bay of Campeche, and
moderate S winds prevail in the western Gulf offshore of
northeastern Mexico. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail over the basin.

For the forecast, widespread fresh S to SE winds and moderate
seas are expected to develop west of 90W tonight as the pressure
gradient increases between ridging over the eastern basin and a
developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds
will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico
tonight through Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these
winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much
of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri.
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early
this weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough
seas are expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the
basin into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible
offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat into early Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough extends from 19N75W to 15N76W, and scattered
showers are noted near this feature. Elsewhere, a 1010 mb low is
centered over northwestern Colombia, supporting fresh to strong NE
to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the south-central basin. Locally
fresh E winds are occurring south of Hispaniola. Weak ridging
extends over the rest of the Caribbean, supporting moderate or
weaker trade winds and 2 to 5 ft seas.

For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E
winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this
weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will
occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also
expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela
starting on Thu. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central
Caribbean today, including through the Windward Passage, with
widespread fresh winds expanding over much of the basin through
late week as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian
low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are
expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola
nightly starting on Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N45.5W southwestward to a 1012 mb low
near 21N58W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are
occurring near this front, north of 18N between 39N and 57W. Fresh
to strong S winds and rough seas to 9 ft are occurring to the
east of the front, north of 27N. Farther west, moderate NE winds
and locally rough seas are occurring east of 65W as high pressure
prevails to the north. A surface trough is noted from 31N75W to
28N78W, supporting moderate to fresh SW winds offshore of northern
and central Florida. Elsewhere, a 1035 mb high is building north
of the waters near 37.5N23W, and fresh to strong NE winds and
rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are occurring near and downwind of the
Canary Islands. Fresh trade winds and 5 to 8 ft seas prevail south
of 20N.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to locally fresh NE winds
and rough seas occurring east of 65W will slowly diminish this
morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will occur north of
29N and west of 70W today as a surface trough develops to the
north and moves eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate
seas are then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu
as a weak pressure gradient develops. High pressure building off
the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support
moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the
region through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is
slated move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, leading
to increasing winds and building seas in the wake of the front.

$$
ADAMS