RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031028
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun May 3 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front near Cape Coral,
Florida to the offshore waters just north of the Yucatan continues
as a stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95W.
The front will stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning over
the far SE Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the
front into early afternoon, except strong to minimal gale force
offshore Veracruz this morning before diminishing. Rough to very
rough seas will continue with these winds before gradually
subsiding early in the week. Please read the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 37W, from
01N to 11N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate
isolated strong convection is near the southern portion of the
wave axis south of 04N between 33W and way out ahead of the wave
to 52W. The northern portion of the wave continues to move
through a hostile dry environment which inhibit other impacts.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then
continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to NE
Brazil near 01.5S49W. Aside from the convection associated with
the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is
ongoing along and offshore Liberia.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on
a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf.

As referenced above, a cold front near Cape Coral, Florida to the
offshore waters just north of the Yucatan continues as a
stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Other
than the gale force winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to
strong NW-N winds extend northward to near Tampico with mainly
fresh NE winds across the remainder of the area behind the front.
Rough to very rough seas are south of 26N and west of 90W and west
of the front, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere behind the front.
Currently, a wide band of showers and thunderstorms related to the
front is over portions of South Florida and the SE Gulf, with
another cluster in the SW Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning,
and higher seas are likely with this convection. Ahead of the
front, light and variable winds prevail, except moderate out of
the SE near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are mainly 2-5 ft ahead of
the front.

For the forecast, the front will stall and gradually wash out by
Mon morning over the far SE Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds will
continue behind the front into early afternoon, except strong to
minimal gale force offshore Veracruz this morning before
diminishing. Mon and Tue should see quiescent conditions
prevailing across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow
will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed, locally strong near
the Yucatan. Looking ahead, another cold front may reach the NW
Gulf by Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic
and mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh
trades in the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the NW basin, mainly off
Belize and in the Gulf of Honduras along with 4-6 ft seas. Winds
are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin, along
with 3-5 ft seas. Convection continues to flare- up over the
Yucatan Peninsula associated with a pre- frontal trough. A large
area of showers and thunderstorms is extending from the peninsula
to the NW Caribbean, as well as the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise,
the E Pacific monsoon is supporting widely scattered showers
offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to
strong trades over the S central Caribbean along with locally
rough seas at times, and moderate to fresh trades over the
remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several
days. Fresh to strong SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will
diminish around sunrise today as a weakening cold front approaches
the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the
Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras
to increase Tue through Thu.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida.
Fresh to strong SW winds are present north of about 27N and east
of the front to 67W, with fresh to locally strong NW-N winds
behind the front. Associated seas are 5-7 ft north of 27N and west
of 70W. Frontal troughing from near 31N32W to 25N37W supports
scattered moderate convection north of 24N east of the troughing
to about 27W. A broad band of showers and thunderstorms is
within about 120 nm ahead of the front. Broad surface ridging
dominates elsewhere in the subtropical waters. Fresh N-NE winds
extend offshore Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands to the north of
the monsoon trough along with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to locally
fresh trades are south of 12N. Moderate or weaker winds prevail
across the remainder of the waters, along with moderate seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from
31N60W to a low pressure area forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The
low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of
Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the
central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning.
Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front today, followed
by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue
with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, conditions should become
quiescent Tue night through Thu. The next cold front may approach
the SE United States coast by Thu night with the potential for
increasing winds north of the Bahamas again.

$$
Lewitsky