RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Feb 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

W Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front has moved
across the NW Gulf tonight, and has reach from the Florida
Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico. Strong N winds to 30 kt
immediately behind the front were depicted by satellite
scatterometer data across the Texas coastal waters just before
midnight, with local buoys there now showing 10 ft seas. The
front will continue moving quickly across the basin through Sun
night, producing strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to
very rough seas behind it. Gale-force winds are expected offshore
of Tampico by sunrise this morning, and offshore of Veracruz this
afternoon and tonight. Seas offshore Tampico are expected to
build to 12 to 14 ft, while seas offshore Veracruz are forecast to
build to 14 to 16 ft. Winds and seas should gradually subside
from NW to SE Mon through Tue as high pressure builds across the
Gulf region behind the cold front.

W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described
above currently moving through the Gulf of America will move
offshore of the southeastern U.S. around midday today. Strong to
gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas will prevail behind
the front from Sun afternoon through early Mon. Seas during this
time will build to 12-15 ft. The front is expected to reach from
near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the
NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough exits Africa near 09.5N13.5W and extends to
04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil
near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 05N between 10W and 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
W Gulf Gale Warning.

A strong cold front has moved across the NW Gulf overnight, and
has reached the central Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico.
Scattered moderate convection is occurring along the front E of
90W and along a pre-frontal trough about 75 nm SE of the front
across the Florida Big Bend. High pressure centered over the
western Atlantic extends a ridge across central Florida and into
the central Gulf region. This pattern is yielding a gentle to
moderate S to SW flow across ahead of the front. Seas are 2 to 4
ft ahead of the front, and 6 to 10 ft behind the front, highest
offshore of Texas. SE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche is
maintaining smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward,
producing hazy skies between 88W and 94W.

For the forecast, the cold front will shift quickly southeastward
across the basin through Sun night, producing strong to near-gale
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas behind it. Gale-
force winds are expected offshore of Tampico by sunrise today and
offshore of Veracruz this afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas
should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake
of the front. High pressure will shift E-SE across the Gulf Tue
through Wed and gradually produce fresh to strong southerly return
flow across the W Gulf early Wed through midday Thu before the
next cold front enters the NW Gulf Thu evening.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area along
26N-27N and lower pressure over Colombia is currently supporting
strong to near-gale force tradewinds in the south-central
Caribbean, strongest near the coast of Colombia. These winds were
well sampled by the most recent satellite scatterometer data. The
persistence of these wind speeds and fresh to strong trades
elsewhere across the central Caribbean has resulted in 8 to 11 ft
seas in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia and
extending N to 15N. Elsewhere across the basin, seas are 4 to 7
ft with moderate to fresh trades, except in the Gulf of Honduras
where fresh to strong SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail. N of
significant convection is presently across the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will begin to weaken this
afternoon through tonight, as high pressure shifts eastward,
leading to diminishing winds tonight and Mon. Farther east, rough
seas will linger S of 13N and E of the Lesser Antilles through
morning as N swell fades across the central tropical Atlantic. A
strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight, reach from
NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border by Tue morning,
then stall and begin to dissipate from central Dominican Republic
to SE Nicaragua Wed morning. Expect strong N winds and rapidly
building seas behind this front.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a
the W Atlantic Gale warning.

A surface ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast waters W of 40W,
with 1020 mb high pressure centered near 27N70W and a 1021 mb
high pressure located near 24N49W. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds
prevail west of the ridge, to the N of the Bahamas, ahead of an
approaching cold front over the SE U.S. Gentle to moderate
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted around the southern
periphery of the ridge, N of 15N and W of 45W. Moderate to fresh
trades dominate the tropical Atlantic, with seas in the 6 to 8 ft
range in fading N swell. Decaying NW swell is also producing seas
7 to 9 ft north of 22N and east of 40W. The pressure gradient
tightens between the ridge and frontal boundaries located just N
of 31N resulting in fresh westerly winds and seas to 10 ft N of
26N between 30W-60W. Farther E, fresh NE winds are seen between
the Canary Islands and 20N due to the pressure gradient between a
1032 mb high pressure situated W of Portugal and a trough over NW
Africa.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned ridge will shift
slowly eastward through Mon, allowing a strong cold front to move
offshore of the southeastern U.S. midday today. Strong to gale
force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the
front this afternoon through early Mon. The front is expected to
reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from
31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning,
while weakening. The front will stall from 30N55W to the central
Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through
Thu.

$$
Stripling