RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 161022
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 987 mb low
pressure located in the NW Atlantic to the central Bahamas and
central Cuba. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed
winds to gale force both ahead of and following the front north of
29N, embedded in an area of strong to near-gale force conditions
north of 25N and west of 65W. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W
Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Winds will diminish
below gale force accordingly through early Fri. Elsewhere,
widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through
Fri. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind
the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin
late in the upcoming weekend.

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front will reach the NW Gulf
tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough
seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.
Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary
late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then
Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop
with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.

Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 11N14W and continues southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ
extends from 05N18W to 03N35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate
convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A 1022 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf of
America, supporting moderate to fresh N winds over the E Gulf
waters and rough seas over the E Gulf and Bay of Campeche.
Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail
elsewhere. The dry, cold continental airmass moving across the
basin is suppressing the development of showers and thunderstorms.

For the forecast, marine conditions will quickly improve from NW
to SE this morning. A reinforcing front will reach the NW Gulf
tonight, supporting fresh to near gale-force N-NE winds and rough
seas behind the front. The front will reach from Apalachicola,
Florida to Tamaulipas, Mexico Sat night, then from SW Florida to
Veracruz, Mexico Sun evening and east of the basin by Sun night.
Winds are expected to strengthen to gale-force behind the boundary
late Sat into early Sun, especially off Tampico, and then
Veracruz late Sun morning. Rough to very rough seas will develop
with these winds. Conditions will improve markedly on Mon.
However, the pressure gradient will tighten again Tue into Wed,
resulting in fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough
seas across much of the basin..

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to southern
Belize. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are noted
behind the boundary. A line of showers also extends from E
Hispaniola to Panama. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to
locally rough seas are found behind the front. Meanwhile, a strong
subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends into the
central and eastern Caribbean, sustaining moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, the front is expected to stall from E Cuba to
Honduras later today, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient
may tighten later in the upcoming weekend and early next week
leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin
ahead of a reinforcing front. The front will arrive in the NW
Caribbean early next week and the tight pressure gradient behind
it will sustain fresh to strong NW winds and moderate to rough
seas during most of next week. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds
will pulse offshore of NW Colombia tonight, reaching near- gale
force at night starting Sat night and into early next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

Outside of the area of gales described above in the Special
Features section, a ridge extends from the north-central Atlantic
to north of Hispaniola. Farther east, a broad upper low is
centered near 22N37W. A weak surface trough is noted from 24N35W
to 15N40W. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas cover a
large area north of 12N and east of 55W, south of the ridge.
Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas this morning, and from
31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken.
Widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough
seas are found ahead and behind of the front. Gale force winds are
occurring north of 29N. These winds will shift eastward today,
before lifting north of our area this evening. Seas will
gradually diminish into the weekend. Another cold front may impact
the basin late in the upcoming weekend into early next week,
supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas..

$$
Delgado