RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261537
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front continues to
move E-SE across the Gulf this morning, and extends from near
Yankeetown, Florida southwestward to just west of Puerto Dos
Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf.
Strong to near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas
are found behind the front. Earlier scatterometer satellite data
indicated that northerly gales were occurring offshore Tampico.
Recent observations inland of Puerto Veracruz show fresh to strong
sustained winds with gusts to near gale force, This is indicative
of sustained gales just offshore. These gale conditions are
forecast to continue offshore Tampico through this morning and
offshore Veracruz through late Mon night. The cold front will
sweep across the rest of the basin tonight through Mon evening.
Seas are expected to quickly build across the Gulf region through
Mon reaching 16 or 17 ft across SW portions. Marine conditions
will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves
southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high pressure settles
across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to keep up with the
latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 06N16W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is observed within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ
between 17W and 24W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the western and SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from near Yankeetown, Florida southwestward
to just west of Puerto Dos Bocas, Mexico along the Bay of Campeche
in the southwest Gulf. Modified arctic air is spilling across the
entire basin behind the front to produce a blanket of cold air
stratus behind the front. Numerous showers are likely along the
leading edge of the colder air, but no significant thunderstorm
activity is evident at this time. Wave heights are up to 13 ft at
buoy 42055 in the west-central Gulf, hinting of wave heights to as
high as 15 ft farther west in the area of gale force winds closer
to the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz. Ahead of the
front, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds and moderate seas
to 6 ft prevail.

For the forecast, gale conditions are forecast to prevail
offshore Veracruz through late tonight. The cold front will sweep
across the rest of the basin through this evening with very rough
seas expected to quickly build across the basin today and tonight.
Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue through Wed as
the front moves southeastward into the NW Caribbean and high
pressure settles across the northern Gulf. The high will shift
southeastward Thu as low pressure develops in the far western Gulf
along the next cold frontal boundary. This front is expected to
reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.
Another round of gale force winds near Veracruz will likely begin
late Fri night in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Generally fair conditions prevail across the Caribbean this
morning, except for a few showers moving quickly in the generally fresh
trade wind flow across the eastern and central parts of the
basin, south of the dominant subtropical ridge over the western
Atlantic. Strong winds may be pulsing off the coast of Colombia
between Cartagena and Barranquilla, where seas to 9 ft area
likely. Seas are likely 5-8 ft elsewhere across the eastern and
central Caribbean. An overnight altimeter satellite pass confirmed
large combined seas over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the
Leeward and Windward Islands. This is due to along fetch of fresh
trade winds supporting 8 to 9 ft NE to E swell. Gentle breezes and
2 to 5 ft are evident elsewhere across the northwest Caribbean
and the far southwest part of basin.

For the forecast, high pressure E of Bermuda will slide SE and
weaken through Tue and maintain a ridge N of the Caribbean basin,
supporting mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central
Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters, while fresh
winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E swell
over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas
lingering near 8 ft through Wed afternoon. A cold front will enter
the NW Caribbean late tonight and begin to stall from eastern
Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds
will follow the front before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh
on Wed, and increasing to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as
stronger high pressure builds southward across the N Gulf of
America. Mainly moderate winds will prevail over the NW Caribbean
Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A ridge extends from 1027 mb high is centered east of Bermuda
near 33N53W southwestward across the northwest Bahamas, south
Florida and through the Straits of Florida. The ridge is shifting
east ahead of a strong cold front that is just starting to move
off the coasts of Georgia and northeast Florida. Fresh to strong
SW winds and rough seas are ahead of the front between northeast
Florida and Bermuda north of 29N. Farther east, a cold front just
passing the Azores extends to 31N35W to 28N50W, then is stationary
south of the high pressure to near 31N65W. Moderate to fresh trade
winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are noted across the deep tropics south
of the ridge, specifically south of 22N, with gentle to moderate
breezes and 5 to 8 ft seas noted elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds over the NW forecast
waters along with rough seas to 10 ft will continue through late
morning as the strong cold front continues to move offshore
northeast Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
may develop along the front. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front this afternoon through Tue
afternoon. The front will reach from near 31N73W to the NW Bahamas
and S Florida this evening, from near 31N57W to the Turks and
Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become
stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE
Bahamas and to eastern Cuba Wed evening. The frontal boundary will
begin to dissipate on Thu as another cold front moves out across
the western forecast waters, reaching from near 29N55W to the
central Bahamas Fri morning, before stalling N of 24N Fri night.
Elsewhere. a broad ridge extends from 1027 mb high pressure near
35N54W southwestward to east of the Bahamas. A stationary front
extends across the NE zones from 28N55W to 31N64W supporting
gentle to moderate winds.

$$
Christensen