RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270444
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from
the Straits of Florida southwestward across the NW coast of Cuba
and the Yucatan Channel and into the Yucatan Peninsula, and will
continue to move SE of the basin tonight through Tue. Strong
northerly winds prevail across the entire basin tonight behind the
front, with gale winds to 40 kt near Veracruz, and are expected
to continue through late tonight. Very rough seas are occurring
off Veracruz. Marine conditions will improve from NW to SE Tue
through Wed as the front moves farther southeastward into the NW
Caribbean and high pressure settles across the northern Gulf.

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong W Atlantic cold front extends
through 31N72W southwestward across the NW Bahamas and through
the northern Straits of Florida. Ahead of the front, fresh to
strong SW winds prevail N of 28N. Behind the front, strong NW
winds and rough seas prevail, with gales near and offshore NE
Florida to the Cape Canaveral area expected to continue through
late tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will
continue along the front tonight. The front will reach from near
Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning, from
near 31N54W to the Turks and Caicos Islands and eastern Cuba Tue
evening, then become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near
28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening. The frontal
boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant rainfall event: A cold front is entering the NW
Caribbean and forecast to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras
by late Tue into Wed. As the front becomes nearly stationary over
the NW Caribbean, the northerly winds behind it will transport
abundant tropical moisture into the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Honduras, where the onshore flow will favor the development of
showers and thunderstorms. Deep tropical moisture will remain in
place across southern Mexico and northern Central America
supporting more shower and thunderstorm activity with rainfall
amounts of 2 to 4 inches, with localized amounts of 4 to 6 inches
due to orographic effects. The heaviest rainfall are expected in
southern Mexico late tonight into Tue, and in northern Guatemala
and Belize Tue into early Wed, and well as in northern Honduras.

Please follow your local weather office for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 06N18W. The
ITCZ extends from 06N18W to 00N29W and to 03S41W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 25W and
40W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale
Warning in effect for the SW Gulf.

A cold front extends from the Florida Keys to NE Yucatan and a few
showers are noted near the boundary. A strong high pressure over
Texas dominates the basin, forcing fresh to near gale-force
northerly winds and rough to very rough seas behind the front to
a line from the Mississippi to Tampico, Mexico. Elsewhere, mainly
the NW Gulf waters, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
are prevalent.

For the forecast, outside of the Gale Warning area, the high will
shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north-
central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to
reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri evening.
Another round of gale-force winds near Veracruz will likely begin
Fri night in the wake of this front.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front is entering the NW Caribbean Sea with a few showers
near the boundary. Strong northerly winds and rough seas are noted
behind the front. Meanwhile, the remainder of the basin is under
the influence of a broad subtropical ridge over the Atlantic.
Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are found off
Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, high pressure over the central Atlantic will
slide SE and weaken through Tue night. This high will maintain a
ridge N of the Caribbean basin, supporting mostly fresh trades
over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N
Atlantic waters, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to
strong at night through Thu. Large E swell over the Tropical N
Atlantic will slowly subside, with seas lingering near 8 ft
through Wed afternoon. A cold front currently across the Straits
of Florida and Yucatan Channel will enter the NW Caribbean tonight
and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to NE Honduras by late Tue
into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before
briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, then increasing to
fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure builds
southward across the N Gulf of America. Mainly moderate winds and
seas will prevail over the NW Caribbean beginning Thu night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please read the Special Features section about the Gale Warning
off NE Florida.

A cold front extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and the Florida
Straits. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Fresh to near
gale-force N winds and rough seas are evident behind this
boundary. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are found ahead
of the front to 60W and north of 29N. The rest of the tropical
Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that extends
from the central Atlantic to the central Bahamas. Moderate to
fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of
25N and east of 65W.

In the far NE Atlantic, a strong low pressure off Ireland is
producing fresh to strong W winds and rough seas to the area north
of the Canary Islands and east of 25W. Northerly swell associated
with this feature is progressing southward, producing seas of
8-16 ft north of 25N and east of 55W. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, outside of the Gale Warning area,
another cold front will likely enter our westernmost waters on
Sat. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure
near 31N43W southwestward to east of the Bahamas.


$$
Delgado