RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 300453
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0453 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A broad surface trough currently
analyzed along 48W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds
and seas 8 to 10 ft from 19N to 27N between 35W and 54W. The
trough will continue to advance westward into the waters north of
the Leeward Islands Sun trough Tue night, and bring fresh to
strong E winds across most of the waters from 16N to 30N east of
60W through Monday. Seas within these waters will build to 8 to 13
ft. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the
trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is
partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the
central Atlantic.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and
continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 08N54W.
Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 13.5N
east of 15W. Similar convection is depicted along the ITCZ between
21.5W and 41W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Strong high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast of the
U.S. dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary
front in the NW Caribbean and SW North Atlantic result in fresh to
strong NE winds in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these
waters are 5-8 ft. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE
winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted west of 94.5W. Elsewhere, light
to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered
mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. and a stationary front southeast
of the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Florida
Straits and far southeast Gulf. These winds persist over the far
western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. This
front will move offshore Mon, stall Mon night into Tue, when a low
pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the
southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front
will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall
into late week as another low forms over Texas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A dissipating stationary front across the NW Caribbean extends
from central Cuba to Belize. Divergence aloft and tropical
moisture are supporting scattered showers over the central
Caribbean, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh
easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the
central, and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, a stationary front from central Cuba to Belize
is dissipating. High pressure over the western Atlantic will
support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin
through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish
by mid week as the high shifts east.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a
Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic.

A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is
depicted along the front. Strong high pressure centered over
mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. continues to force fresh to
strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 30N between 63W
and 76W. Seas are 4-8 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere
across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are
gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas, except for locally fresh
winds over the tropical Atlantic.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will
dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will
shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak
front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift
northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas
north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the
northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong
southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N ahead of a cold
front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed.
This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed.
Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough
moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands
Sun through Tue night.

$$
KRV