RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 290448
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0448 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and
extends to 07N23W. The ITCZ extends westward from near 07N23W to
08.5N55W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to
17N and east of 52W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A strong high pressure north of the area dominates the Gulf of
America, supporting mainly dry conditions. The pressure gradient
between the aforementioned high and lower pressures associated
with a cold front in the NW Caribbean results in fresh to strong
N-NE winds over much of the basin and seas of 5-10 ft. The
strongest winds are found in SE Gulf and the highest seas in the
Yucatan Channel and Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds and associated
rough seas will diminish tonight as high pressure builds into the
SE U.S. SE return flow will quickly develop in the NW Gulf Sat
and reach strong speeds offshore Texas, ahead of a cold front that
will move off the coast Sat night, then stall through Mon before
moving SE through the basin early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to northern Belize.
Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the
front in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is occurring in the
SW Caribbean due to divergence aloft and convergent surface winds.
Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are evident behind the
frontal boundary, with seas peaking near 11 ft in the Yucatan
Channel. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 5-9 ft are
present in the central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are
prevalent.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean
will sustain fresh to locally strong trades over the SW and
south- central Caribbean overnight, with moderate trades elsewhere
in the central and eastern basin prevailing through the weekend
as the gradient weakens some. The aforementioned stationary front
will dissipate through late Sat. Fresh to strong N winds and
rough seas behind it through the Yucatan Channel will diminish as
the front decays. A very weak pressure gradient across the region
Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central
Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is found
along the front. A strong ridge over the east-central United
States is forcing fresh to locally strong N-NE winds and seas of
5-8 ft behind the frontal boundary, with the strongest winds and
highest seas occurring in the Florida Straits. In the central and
eastern tropical Atlantic waters, a broad subtropical ridge
centered SW of the Azores dominates, supporting moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft. Elsewhere,
moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front from Bermuda to
central Cuba is followed by fresh to locally strong N winds. This
front will gradually dissipate through Sun. A tight pressure
gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds
across the SW Atlantic this weekend. Fresh to strong SE winds
will develop offshore NE Florida Mon night ahead of the next cold
front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue night.

$$ KRV