RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 200407
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Mar 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a gale
warning, in effect for the high seas zones of Irving, west of
Madeira, Meteor and Agadir, until 21/00 UTC at least, with severe
gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on
associated very large swells. Please refer to the high seas
forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Very large, long-period north
swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in
the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft into Sat night,
mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across
these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal
coverage with the remaining very rough seas subsiding below 12 ft
near the Canary Islands Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas
Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Biassau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 04N18W.
The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and west of 17W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad ridge near the mouth of the Mississippi River dominates
the basin, maintaining fairly tranquil weather conditions. The
pressure gradient between this ridge and a stationary front SE of
the area is leading to fresh to locally strong NE winds across the
SE Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate NE
winds and moderate seas prevail. Over the NW Gulf, winds are light
to gentle, and seas are slight.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the
Gulf region and a weakening stationary front over the western
Caribbean Sea will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE
winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida, through Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected nightly, through the forecast period, across the eastern
Bay of Campeche due to local effects associated with a thermal
trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate
seas will prevail through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weakening stationary front extends along 80W from central Cuba
to just offshore Nicaragua near 12N, with a surface trough
paralleling the boundary about 90 nm to the east. A few showers
are noted with these boundaries, especially east of the trough.
Fresh to locally strong N winds prevail W of the front, with seas
to 7 ft. To the east of these features, gentle to moderate E
winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to
rough seas will continue to follow the aforementioned front
forecast to dissipate on Fri offshore Nicaragua. Afterward,
moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean,
including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage through
early Sun as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in
the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward,
fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia early next
week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France and associated large
northerly swells across the far NE waters.

A stationary front enters the western Atlantic near 31N69W to the
central Bahamas and central Cuba. A weak low pressure and surface
trough are noted ahead of the front near 25N71W. Scattered showers
are seen ahead of the frontal boundary. Fresh to strong northerly
winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front.

In the east Atlantic, a cold front arches from the Canary Islands
to 22N26W to 26N35W. Strong to near gale northerly winds and
rough to very rough seas are north of 22N and east of 41W, with
hazardous marine conditions in association with this front
depicted further in the aforementioned Special Marine section
above. The rough seas in NE swell extend much farther S and W,
reaching to 15N and as far W as 55W.

Between these two frontal systems and across the remainder of the
basin, an expansive 1030 mb ridge centered near 38N45W dominates.
This is leading to moderate to fresh mainly E winds S of the high
across area waters, with moderate to rough seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N68W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Fresh to strong
winds and rough are observed of either side of the front N of 25N.
A low pressure developed ahead of the front, however it is
forecast to merge with the front tonight as the front transitions
to a cold front. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas ahead and
behind the front will continue across the offshore waters N of 25N
through the Sun night when the front is forecast to move east of
55W. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the NE
Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to
strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are
forecast to affect most of the waters N of 27N through the middle
of the next week.

$$
Delgado