RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 220924
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0920 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia near 07N11W and continues southwestward
to 02N20W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N50W along the
coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is
noted from 01N to 03N east of 50W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1019 mb high pressure is centered in the east-central Gulf near
26N86W. A trough is over the Yucatan Channel. This pattern is
supporting moderate to fresh NE winds off the west coast of
the Yucatan Channel with 3-5 ft seas, and gentle to moderate
southerly breezes and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure over the east-central Gulf will
maintain mostly moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas
across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the
eastern Gulf through the middle of the week. A trough over the Bay
of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional
moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the
Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the middle of the week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front extends from the eastern tip of the Dominican
Republic to south of Haiti. A few showers are likely occurring
just ahead of the front near Puerto Rico. A recent scatterometer
satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds across and
downwind the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola and eastern
Cuba with 5-7 ft seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4-6 ft
are noted elsewhere over the western Caribbean. Light breezes and
1-3 ft seas are evident over the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, the front will continue to move eastward across
the far northeast Caribbean. Building high pressure following the
front over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally
strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south
of Hispaniola through Mon. As the high pressure moves slightly
eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will
develop offshore Colombia Mon through Thu, mainly at night.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A slow moving cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near
31N61W to the eastern tip of Hispaniola, which is generating
scattered showers and thunderstorms within 90 nm ahead of the
front north of 25N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass
indicated winds to gale force ahead of the front near 29N62W, but
this was likely a short-lived event associated with thunderstorms
active in this region. The upper dynamics are lifting to the
northeast, and this thunderstorm activity is starting to taper
off. The scatterometer pass also indicated fresh to strong winds
following the front with strong to near-gale force SW winds ahead
of the front north of 25N between 50W and 65W. Sofar buoys and an
recent altimeter satellite passes showed 7 to 11 ft seas in this
area as well. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere north
of 22N and west of 50W. Broad ridging covers the Atlantic south of
31N and west of 25W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds
in this area. Farther east, a 996 mb low pressure area continues
to move between Madeira and the Canary Islands, supporting fresh
to strong N winds north of 25N and east of 25W, and moderate N
winds south of 25N and east of 25W. Seas are 10-14 ft north of 25N
and east of 25W, and 7-10 ft elsewhere east of 50W.

For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong winds and rough
seas on either side of the front, mainly north of 25N, will
continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through
tonight as the front continues to move eastward. This system is
forecast to reach from 31N55W to Virgin Islands by this evening,
then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while
gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast
to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and
Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E
winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast
to affect most of the waters north of 27N into the middle of the
next week before starting to diminish Wed night as the front lifts
northward.

$$
Christensen