RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 012159
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from 973
mb hurricane force low pressure east of Cape Hatteras, North
Carolina through 31N62W to the north-central coast of the
Dominican Republic. Gale-force to strong gale-force winds are
mainly north of 27N on either side of the front generally between
55W and 77W, with fresh to strong winds elsewhere west of the
front, and elsewhere north of 23N and east of the front to 50W.
Gale-force winds will diminish by early Mon. Meanwhile, rough
seas prevail across most of the basin N of 22N. Seas across the
forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high
pressure in the wake of the fronts shift eastward near 29N.
Mariners are urged to exercise caution across the basin, including
outside of the storm and gale condition affected zones, due to
the expansive area of strong to near gale force winds and
associated rough seas. Please keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N15W then continues
to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to northern Brazil
at 01S48W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is
noted along the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building
across the area and the cold front that is now well southeast of
the Gulf is supporting fresh to strong NW winds across the eastern
portion of the basin to the east of 87W, while gentle to moderate winds
prevail west of 87W. Rough seas cover the SE half of the basin,
very rough across the SE Gulf near the western Straits of Florida
to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate seas are elsewhere in the basin,
except slight now in the NW and N-central Gulf coastal waters.

For the forecast, conditions at the eastern Gulf will improve
tonight. By Mon, a high building eastward will support gentle to
moderate winds and moderate seas for the central and eastern Gulf.
For the western Gulf, a period of fresh to strong southerly winds
are anticipated from Mon evening through Tue morning. Another
cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Wed, then
sweep southward across the Gulf through Thu night. It will bring
another round of fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A strong arctic cold front extends from near the southern border
of Haiti and the Dominican Republic to near the Panama Canal in
the SW Caribbean. Strong to near gale- force NW winds and rough
seas are found behind the front, including in the Windward Passage
and Yucatan Channel. A surface trough extends from eastern
Hispaniola to northern Colombia, with some scattered moderate
convection between the trough and the front. Moderate to fresh
easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern
Caribbean east of the trough and front.

For the forecast, the front will then begin to stall from eastern
Puerto Rico to near the Gulf of Venezuela Mon and Mon night.
Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds and rough seas behind this
front will gradually shift eastward from the western Caribbean to
the central Caribbean through Tue. As the stalled front
dissipates near midweek, this should allow winds and seas to
diminish across the central Caribbean. On Thu, another cold front
is expected to approach the northwestern Caribbean and cause
building seas and winds there toward the next weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing
Gale Warning for sections of the western Atlantic.

Outside of the Gale Warning, a cold front enters the central
Atlantic waters near 31N23W and continues southwestward to 27N40W
then becomes stationary to 29N48W. Moderate to fresh westerly winds
and rough seas are found mainly behind the front to 20W. The
remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1026 mb high
center located just north of the discussion waters near 33N40W.
Moderate to fresh winds are noted north of the monsoon trough and
ITCZ to 24N between Africa and the Leeward Islands, with moderate
or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Rough seas
cover the majority of the remainder of the waters, slightly lower
from 25N to 29N between 23W and 35W.

For the forecast west of 55W, as the low described above tracks
northeastward tonight through Mon, these gale winds will also
shift northeastward to north of 31N by early Mon morning.
Afterward, the merged cold front will sustain fresh to strong W to
NW winds but they too, should gradually subside to between gentle
and moderate on Tue as the front pulls eastward and weaken.
Dangerous seas at 24 to 28 ft will steadily subside to between 12
and 16 ft on Mon, then 8 to 10 ft on Tue. In the long run, another
cold front is going to move off the southeast U.S. coast on Thu,
resulting in building winds and seas north of 25N through the next
weekend. Mariners are urged to remain cautious through Mon and
stay up to date with the latest forecasts.

$$
Lewitsky