RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 160437
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0330 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W, then continues southward to
03.5N17W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N19W to the coast of Brazil
near 02S45W. Scattered to locally numerous isolated strong convection
is noted from 04N to beyond 00N between 11W and 50W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge extends from 1023 mb high pressure over the western
Atlantic westward across northern Florida and the northern Gulf
coasts. A 1021 mb high is analyzed over the waters of the Florida
Big Bend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower
pressures across the western Caribbean, as well as the diurnal
Yucatan Peninsula trough supports fresh E to NE winds within 90
nm of the coast of the Yucatan, and fresh E winds through the
Straits of Florida. Seas are 4 to 5 ft across these areas. Elsewhere,
mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail, except for the NE Gulf
where light to gentle winds dominate. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across
the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 ft across the western Gulf, as
shown in recent satellite altimeter and buoy data.

For the forecast, the current ridge across the N Gulf will remain
in place and slowly weaken through Sat to maintain gentle to
moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will
allow fresh winds to pulse to strong during the evenings. Looking
ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will
follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night
through Sun night. The front will stall from the Florida Straits
to south Texas by late Mon.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation continues across the
Greater Antilles, the western half of the Caribbean and the
adjacent Atlantic waters. This is inducing an inverted trough in
the low levels from the Mona Passage northward into the western
Atlantic. This trough is weakening the local pressure gradient and
supporting gentle to moderate winds across the eastern Caribbean E
of 70W, except fresh winds along the NE coastal waters of
Venezuela. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across these waters and 5 to 6 ft in
the fresh winds off of NE Venezuela. Scattered showers are moving
across the basin E of 65W. The western Atlantic ridge extends
southwestward across the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, and is
forcing fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage,
where seas are 4 to 6 ft, and in the lee of SE Cuba, where seas
are 3 to 4 ft. Fresh to locally strong NE winds with seas 5 to 7
ft are also occurring across the coastal waters of Colombia.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate N to NW winds with seas of 4 to 6
ft prevail.

For the forecast, a low level trough extending from the Mona
Passage northward into the western Atlantic will move slowly
westward and weaken through the weekend. This feature will disrupt
the typical pressure pattern across the basin during this time.
Expect fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of
Colombia into Thu, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are
expected there during the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally
strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist in the lee
of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through early Thu. Winds and
seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes
north of the area Fri through the weekend.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation extends from a small
upper low N of the Anegada Passage along 20N westward across the
Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the western Caribbean. This
features has induced a surface trough that extends from S of
Bermuda to 26N68W the S-SW into the eastern Dominican Republic
and the Mona Passage. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing E
of the surface trough and near the small upper low, from 19N to
23.5N between 59W and 69W. A surface ridge extends across N
portions of the area from the Azores to Bermuda and then west-
southwestward across the northern Gulf of America. The associated
pressure gradient W of the surface trough along 68W is producing
a broad area of fresh NE winds from 29N through the central and
southeast Bahamas and across the eastern half of Cuba. Seas are 6
to 9 ft in this area. A moderate pressure gradient prevails south
of the ridge and E of the surface trough to 20W. Moderate to fresh
trade winds prevail across the basin S of 26N and into the
tropics, with higher winds possible within the area of convection
occurring north of the NE Caribbean. Seas across these waters are
6 to 8 ft in mixed N and NE trade wind swell. Large NW swell has
moved into the waters E of 40W and N of 23N, producing seas of 8
to 14 ft per recent satellite altimeter data. Near the coast of NW
Africa, fresh NE winds prevail, with seas of 7 to 10 ft in mixed
NW and NE swell.

For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending between
Bermuda and eastern Dominican Republic will drift west toward the
Turks and Caicos Islands tonight into Thu morning, then will
remain nearly stationary through late Thu while gradually
weakening, then drift westward and dissipate through the weekend.
Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west
of the trough across the southern Bahamas through tonight, with
conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens.
High pressure will build into the area from the E following the
trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the
coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to
NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches
from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.

$$
Stripling