RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230458
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Dec 23 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will continue to
move E across Central Atlantic waters through Wed, with strong to
near gale-force N winds behind it. Significant NW to N swell,
with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the
region is combining with wind-waves to induce very rough seas SE
of Bermuda that will spread SE across waters N of 21N into Wed
night. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft can be expected from 35W to
67W during this period. Another cold front may bring similar
conditions late this week.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08N13W and
extends southwestward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to
02N36W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N
to 08N between 05W and 27W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, generating scattered
moderate convection within 90 nm of the Mexico coast from Tampico
to Veracruz. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere. Moderate to
fresh winds are ongoing over much of the basin, but the latest
scatterometer imagery reveals strong NE to E winds through the
Florida Straits and offshore Cuba. Also, winds are gentle W of
96W. Seas are generally 4 to 6 ft, with rough seas in the Florida
Straits and offshore Cuba, and 2 to 4 ft seas W of 96W.

For the forecast, strong high pressure centered off the Mid-
Atlantic States will move eastward farther into the western
Atlantic on Tue. This system will support fresh to strong winds
and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the
SE Gulf through tonight, then mainly fresh winds will prevail
through Wed night. A ridge will remain in control of the weather
pattern across the Gulf region trough the middle of the week. A
high pressure center will settle over the NE Gulf Thu through Fri
producing mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

High pressure in the Atlantic is building southward, tightening
the pressure gradient between it and the Colombian low. As a
result, much of the central and western basin is encompassed by
fresh to strong winds, based on evening scatterometer data, with
near gale-force winds likely ongoing just offshore Colombia. Seas
offshore Colombia area rough, with 4 to 7 ft seas occurring
elsewhere in the aforementioned area. For the eastern Caribbean,
moderate to fresh trades dominate, with seas of 4 to 6 ft.

For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area combined
with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the
lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean
through at least Wed. Otherwise, a new set of long period
northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E
of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages by the
middle of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

See Special Features section above for information on significant
swell that will bring very rough seas to part of the central
Atlantic into mid-week.

A cold front extends from 31N56W to the SE Bahamas. A surface
trough is ahead of this front and extends from 31N50W to 25N60W.
Scattered moderate convection is N of 26N between 49W and 58W.
Behind the cold front, strong NE winds were revealed during
evening scatterometer passes, and seas are rough. To the E of the
front but W of 40W, winds are moderate or less with seas of 5 to 7
ft. Farther E, Moderate to fresh E winds prevail with seas of 7 to
10 ft. In the tradewind belt S of 20N from Africa to the Lesser
Antilles, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft
dominate.

For the forecast W of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N56W to the
southern Bahamas will rapidly progress eastward reaching the SE
waters by Tue morning. At that time, the cold front will extend
from 25N55W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Then, the front will
reach from 22N55W to 20N74W by Wed morning while dissipating.
Strong winds and rough to very rough seas in northerly swell are
expected in the wake of the front through the middle of week. A
second cold front is forecast to reach the N waters on Wed, and
extend from 30N55W to the NW Bahamas by Thu morning. Strong winds
and rough seas are expected behind the front.

$$
Konarik