RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 251032
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1000 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front moving across
the Texas and NE Mexican coastal waters early this morning will
move SE across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong
reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore
waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over
the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.
Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin later today,
and reaching 16 or 17 ft over the SW Gulf late on Mon. Conditions
will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front
moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure builds across the
region. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from equatorial Africa westward into
the Atlantic near 06.5N11W to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from 06N17W
to 00.5N29W to 01.5N41W to 00N51W. Scattered moderate isolated
strong convection is noted from the equator to 03N between 03W
and 16W. Similar convective activity is from 03N to 11N between
25W and 51W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A weak 1009 mb low is analyzed near 27.5N94.5W, with a stationary
front extending northeastward into the central LA coast and
western Vermilion Bay, while a cold front extends from the low
S-SW into the NE Mexico coast just N of Tampico. A warm front
also extends across the far NE Gulf waters of the Florida Big Bend.
Scattered showers are seen along and E of the cold front and
stationary front. Recent derived satellite imagery also shows fog
banks forming between the coast and both aforementioned frontal
boundaries in the W and NE Gulf, so mariners should be aware for
the potential for reduced visibility in these areas. Recent
satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh SE winds
and 2-5 ft across much of the basin ahead of the front.
Immediately behind the front, winds are quickly veering from the
NW at fresh to strong speeds, with seas are building to 5 to 7 ft
per local buoy data.

For the forecast, the low pressure along the cold front will
track NE into Louisiana today, allowing the cold front to move SE
across the entire basin today through Mon evening. Strong
reinforcing arctic high pressure building behind the front is
expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of
the Gulf Sun and Sun night, gale force winds over the offshore
waters of Tampico Sun night through Mon morning, and gales over
the waters near Veracruz Mon morning through around midnight Mon.
Seas are expected to quickly build across the basin today and
tonight. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through
Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean and high pressure
builds settles across the northern Gulf. Mariners are advised to
keep alert with the latest forecasts.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Atlantic high pressure is centered over the eastern Atlantic and
extends a broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. This
pattern is producing a modest pressure gradient across the basin
this morning. The most recent satellite scatterometer data
indicated moderate to locally fresh trades across most of the
basin with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for fresh to strong trades
and seas of 6 to 8 ft near the coast of Colombia. Fresh trade
winds across the Tropical Atlantic and into the Lesser Antilles is
maintaining large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic, and
spreading seas of 6 to 8 ft through the Atlantic Passages of the
Lesser Antilles, and 4 to 7 ft in the lee of the islands. Moderate
or weaker winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft prevail in the NW Caribbean.
Scattered light to moderate showers dot the waters N of 13N east
of 72W.

For the forecast, broad high pressure over the eastern Atlantic
will maintain a ridge westward into the central Atlantic to
produce mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean
as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Tue, while
fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong at night. Large E
swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside into early
next week, with seas lingering to 8 ft through early Wed. A cold
front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from
eastern Cuba to northern Honduras by late Tue into Wed, weakening
to a shearline Thu. Strong northerly winds will follow the front
before briefly diminishing to mostly fresh on Wed, and increasing
to fresh to strong Wed night and Thu as stronger high pressure
builds southward across the N Gulf of America.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from just S of Bermuda westward to a
weak 1020 mb low just off shore of Jacksonville, and then inland
across north Florida just S of Daytona Beach, FL. A surface trough
is analyzed E of the front and runs from 31N60W to 27N73W.
Another surface tough is analyzed from 31N57W to 23N65W, with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near both troughs.
Fresh to strong E to SE winds generally prevail north of 29N and
west of 65W to 80W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in mixed N and E-SE
swell.

High pressure of 1028 mb located W of the Madeira Islands near
30N21W dominates the remainder of the forecast region, extending a
broad ridge westward along 28N-29N to near 60W. Under this
weather pattern, a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and
seas of 6 to 9 ft is noted from 05N to 25N and E of 40W,
including the Cabo Verde Islands. In the far east Atlantic, large
lingering N swell with seas of 12 to 16 ft persists near the
Canary Islands and offshore Morocco. Moderate to fresh trades are
occurring S of 22N and W of 40W, including the Caribbean
Passages, where seas are 7 to 10 ft. Moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail elsewhere within the ridge.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong S to SW winds will
develop over the NW forecast waters late this afternoon through
early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is
expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Mon morning. SW
winds to near gale force will develop just N of the area early on
Mon. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas and
to west Cuba Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and
to eastern Cuba Tue evening, then begin to become stationary and
weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to the SE Bahamas and to
eastern Cuba Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and
rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue
afternoon. The frontal boundary will begin to dissipate on Thu as
another strong cold front moves out across the western forecast
waters, reaching 31N60W to the SE Bahamas by Thu evening.

$$
Stripling