RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 201659
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1700 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1033 mb
high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting
fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These
two features will remain in place through the middle of the week,
before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage
flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at
night through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these
winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern
Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are
expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts
with a now shearline extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of
Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean
in the wake of the shearline. This will result in the
continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf
of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12
inches will be likely.

Please consult products from your local meteorological services
for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 07N13W and continues
southwestward to 04N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N22W to 01.5S43W.
Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is depicted from
01N to 07W, and east of 15W. Scattered moderate convection is
noted within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to
fresh NE to E winds east of 90W according latest satellite
derived winds. Moderate or lighter winds prevail west of 90W.
Slight to moderate seas prevail across much of the basin.

For the forecast, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the
United States combined with a dissipating frontal boundary over
the NW Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas across the SE Gulf, including the
Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through
Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night
into Sat followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a Gale
Warning offshore Colombia.

A shearline extends from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and
northern Honduras. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured
fresh to strong northerly winds over the NW Caribbean. Seas in
these waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean
is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to
fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest
of the basin.

For the forecast, gale force NE winds are forecast to pulse each
night and early morning hours over the waters offshore Colombia
through Thu morning. A shearline extending from eastern Cuba to
the Gulf of Honduras will dissipate today. Strengthening high
pressure over the SE of the United States will reinforce the
northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of
Honduras today. These marine conditions will improve by Wed. In
addition, the NE winds will continue to transport abundant
tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of
locally heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of moisture,
currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach the
Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the
potential for scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from SE of Bermuda to north of the central
Bahamas where it transition to a stationary front and then to
Camaguey, Cuba. Scattered showers are noted along this boundary.
Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are
noted behind the front, except for strong winds north of the
central Bahamas. The rest of the basin is dominated by an
extensive subtropical ridge near the Azores. The pressure gradient
between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics
supports fresh to strong easterly winds east of 60W and south of
28N. Seas in these waters are rough. Elsewhere, moderate or
lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is
sustaining a few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially
south of 20N and between 30W and 58W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will
continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W
through Thu. The aforementioned front will lift N while
dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over the SE of the
United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh to strong
speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Bahamas
and the Straits of Florida through Wed.

$$
KRV