RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 282313
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Mar 01 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gale Warning East of 35W:
A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir
Marine Zones of Meteo France until 1/00Z. An ASCAT pass from
2043Z confirmed the presence of gale-force winds near the coast
of Morocco from 30N to 31N. Seas are 12 to 13 ft within these
wind speeds. For more information, please see the latest HIGH
SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website:
https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2

Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event:
A strong high pressure of 1034 mb located SW of the Azores near
33N36W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the
eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these
winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of
the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This
swell event will persist through early next week while drifting
southeastward.

Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the
National Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more
information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ
continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 0340W.
Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed from the Equator to 05N between 10W and 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A nearly stationary front extends southwestward across central
Florida to near 27N87W. A band of showers, with embedded strong
thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front. High pressure located
over the SE of United States extends a ridge across the western
Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in
the wake of the front over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle
winds are noted. Seas are in general 1 to 3 ft, highest behind
the front.

For the forecast, the convective activity associated with the
front will continue southeastward across the far SE Gulf tonight.
The stationary front will transition to a weakening cold front
this evening and slowly move southeastward, exiting the basin
tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build
west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on
Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate
to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong
winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue
through Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian
low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central
Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to
fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean and
the north-central part of the basin with moderate seas. Gentle to
locally moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are
seen over the NW Caribbean. Convection has flared-up over Cuba
along the sea breeze convergence zone, and also over the Yucatan
Peninsula. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow,
will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to
scattered passing showers.

For the forecast, a strong subtropical ridge over the central
Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades
and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern
Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient
will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through
at least late next week and support locally very rough seas.
Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the
central and eastern portions of the basin well into next week.
Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward
Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will
prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period,
with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is
expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the
period.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A Gale warning remains in effect E of 35W. Please, see the
Special Features section for more information

A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N77W to central
Florida near Vero Beach. A band of showers, with embedded strong
thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front affecting parts of
south and central Florida and the NW Bahamas. A strong high
pressure of 1034 situated SW of the Azores near 33N36W extends a
ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This
system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the
eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 50W, with rough
seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted
on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will
slowly move southeastward, reaching from near 31N76W to the NW
Bahamas and to South Florida by late tonight. Another cold front
is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and
gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-
force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to
around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night
north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next
week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over
much of the basin. Conditions will begin to slowly abate starting
Thu.

$$
GR