RSS Tropical Weather Outlook
NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion
093 <br />AXNT20 KNHC 060443<br />TWDAT <br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion<br />NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL<br />0615 UTC Fri Jun 6 2025<br /><br />Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America<br />Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South<br />America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the<br />Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite<br />imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.<br /><br />Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through <br />0443 UTC.<br /><br />...TROPICAL WAVES...<br /><br />A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38.5 S of<br />13N. It is moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and <br />thunderstorms are depicted from 04N to 07N between 34W and 41W.<br /><br />...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... <br /><br />The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of<br />Africa near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 07N24W, where<br />it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N36W. It resumes to the W of the <br />above described tropical wave near 05N41W to near 06N51W. <br />Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ west of<br />41W. <br /><br />...GULF OF AMERICA...<br /><br />Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic to the<br />eastern Gulf of America while a trough is analyzed from near <br />22.5N88W to the western Bay of Campeche. Scattered moderate<br />convection is depicted south of 19.5N over the central Bay of <br />Campeche. The pressure gradient in place is generally allowing for<br />light to gentle S to SW winds over the eastern Gulf, and for <br />mostly gentle to moderate E to SE winds elsewhere, except for <br />fresh E to SE winds north of the Yucatan Peninsula. Seas are in <br />the 3 to 5 ft range across the basin.<br /><br />Satellite imagery reveals that skies are hazy over the Florida <br />peninsula and the eastern Gulf due to the presence of the Saharan <br />Air Layer (SAL). <br /><br />For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a ridge into the <br />eastern Gulf through Sun, then build modestly westward into the <br />central Gulf late Sun through early next week. Moderate to fresh E<br />to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening north of the <br />Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche as a trough<br />develops daily and moves westward. Expect moderate to fresh SE <br />winds across the western and south-central Gulf through Mon <br />between a trough over northern Mexico and Atlantic high pressure. <br /><br />...CARIBBEAN SEA...<br /><br />The pressure gradient between rather weak high pressure over the<br />western Atlantic and relatively lower pressures in the southern <br />Caribbean and in northern S America is allowing for fresh to <br />strong trades across the most of the basin, including the Gulf of<br />Honduras, and the Windwards Passage. Seas are 7 to 9 ft over the <br />central section of the basin, 5 to 7 ft in the Gulf of Honduras, <br />and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere. Satellite imagery reveals scattered to <br />numerous moderate convection S of 14.5N and west of 74W due to the<br />eastern end of the E Pacific monsoon trough. <br /><br />For the forecast, weak high pressure N of the region and centered<br />W of Bermuda will shift NE and into the N central Atlantic Fri <br />through the upcoming weekend. The Atlantic ridge will then build <br />SW into the Bahamas and S Florida late Sat through early next <br />week. This pattern will lead to fresh to strong trades and <br />moderate to rough seas across most of the central basin and Gulf <br />of Honduras through Fri evening, diminish slightly on Sat, then <br />increase across most of the basin Sat night into early next week. <br /><br />...ATLANTIC OCEAN...<br /><br />A stationary front extends from near 31N58W southwestward to <br />27N66W. A few clusters of scattered moderate convection are <br />evident over the waters E and NE of northern Florida to near 78W.<br />This activity is out ahead of a stationary front that is over the<br />southeastern U.S., and a lingering upper-level trough that <br />stretches from eastern Georgia to the eastern Gulf of America. <br />Water vapor imagery depicts broad upper- level troughing that is <br />over the central Atlantic N of about 20.5N and between 53.5W and <br />57W. An area of isolated showers is noted along this trough. <br />Farther to the E, a trough is analyzed along 33W from 21N to 30N.<br />No significant convection is occurring with this trough. High <br />pressure prevails elsewhere over the tropical and subtropical <br />waters as a 1031 mb high center is well N of the area near 39N40W.<br />The pressure gradient in place is generally supporting moderate <br />to fresh trades and 6 to 8 ft seas over most of Atlantic S of 20N<br />and east of 55W. North of 20N and east of 55W, winds are mainly <br />moderate with seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker trades along <br />with seas of 4 to 6 ft remain elsewhere.<br /><br />Satellite imagery continues to exhibit an extensive outbreak <br />of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) that covers the vast majority of<br />the eastern Atlantic. A thin swath of this SAL outbreak, <br />has migrated westward to the northern Caribbean and to some <br />areas of the western Atlantic, including to over the Florida <br />peninsula. <br /><br />For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front SE of Bermuda <br />will drift northward and dissipate through Fri night. Weak high <br />pressure NW of this front will shift NE and into the central <br />Atlantic Fri into Sat. Atlantic high pressure will then build <br />modestly W-SW into the Bahamas and S Florida Sun through Tue. <br />Expect fresh to strong winds to pulse each afternoon and evening <br />offshore of Hispaniola through the period. <br /><br />$$<br />KRV