RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

960
AXNT20 KNHC 191615
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800Z UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1615 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The
ITCZ extends from 02N11W to 02N30W and to 02N50W. Scattered
moderate convection is observed from 04N southward along the
ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The combination of surface ridging over the eastern Gulf and lower
pressure over Mexico is resulting in a pressure gradient that is
supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds basin-wide. Seas are
slight east of 86W and moderate elsewhere. The southerly flow in
the western Gulf is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in
southern Mexico northward. Mariners are advised that this may
reduce the visibility in the area. Aside from lower visibility
from the smoke mainly over the southwestern portion of the basin,
dense fog is ongoing over the northern Gulf waters, east of 86W
and north of 28N.

For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds
and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf
through Fri. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-
central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and
night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A
strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf this weekend
and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force
winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz
Sun night into Mon. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and
rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A broad subtropical ridge centered southeast of Bermuda continues
to affect the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force
NE to E winds and rough seas in the south-central and portions of
the southwestern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh E winds and
moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern
Caribbean. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong SE winds and
seas to 6 ft are ongoing.

For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the
south- central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate
pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and
the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night
offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near
and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE
winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of
Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh
trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin
through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop east of the
Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses
through the central tropical Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

The subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of both the
Bermuda and Azores Highs, which extend a ridge across the
tropical Atlantic waters. Between both ridges, a slow moving cold
front extends from 31N39W to 28N46W where it stalls while
continuing to 24N69W. Over the southwestern, North Atlantic
waters, winds are mainly moderate or weaker, however rough seas to
11 ft prevails east of 65W to about 34W. Over the far eastern
subtropical Atlantic, winds are fresh to locally strong, including
the Canary Islands, and seas are 5 to 8 ft. Over the tropical
Atlantic, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are present west of 35W.
Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas east of 70W will slowly
subside from west to east through early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate
to locally fresh S to SW winds will prevail offshore of northern
Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected
elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of
the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with increasing winds and rapidly
building seas expected in the wake of the front through early next
week.

$$
Nepaul