RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 270503
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues
southwestward to near 03N20W and then to 00S39W. The ITCZ then
continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W.
Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of 09N and E of
20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 05N between 20W
and 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming in the W Gulf
generally N of 23N and W of 92W, so low visibility may be a
concern in this region. Surface ridging prevails with a weak 1013
mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds
prevail along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and W of 90W, with
gentle to moderate of weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail
basin- wide.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore
Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and
moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to
moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part
of the basin through the middle of the week. In addition, a
diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan
Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of
Venezuela is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across
much of the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure pattern
exists across the basin, moderate to fresh trades occurring
offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to
moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-
wide.

For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic
waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute
to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the eastern and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as
high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a cold
front that will be moving across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A warm front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low near 23N68W to near
23N54W. A frontal remnant trough is then analyzed from that point
to near 31N39W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are
seen along and north of the warm front to about 27N. In the west
Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed along the eastern FL coast.
Scattered moderate convection is developing along this trough as
a frontal boundary lingers to the north. In the central Atlantic,
another frontal remnant trough extends from 31N42W to 28N58W. Seas
of 7-9 ft follow this feature. Away from these features, surface
ridging prevails with moderate to fresh trades across much of the
Atlantic S of 20N and E of 60W, as well as N of 20N and E of 30W.
Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft also
prevail across much of the basin away from the enhanced seas
behind a frontal remnant trough mentioned above, and W of 70W
where slight seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, a remnant frontal trough lingering
north of the Greater Antilles will gradually dissipate through
Mon. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N east
of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead of a
cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold
front over the waters east of northeast Florida will reach from
near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, from near 31N59W to
25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before
shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly
winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the
wake of the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold
front is expected to move off the northeast Florida late Thu or
Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W
and stationary to South Florida late Fri.

$$
Adams