RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 060623
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings...

A Strong Cold Front:
A strong cold front stretches southwestward from a 1002 mb low off
the Carolinas across 31N74W to beyond the central Bahamas. Near-
gale to gale-force W to NW winds with 11 to 14 ft seas are found
near the cold front, north of 27N between 72W and 76W. This area
of gale-force winds and rough seas will shift eastward through
Friday night, with winds reaching strong-gale force and seas
building to between 12 and 16 ft Fri morning. Afterward, they
should lift north of 31N near 45W on Saturday.

A Deepening Low Pressure:
A low pressure system enters into the Atlantic off the North
Carolina coast on Fri, then rapidly deepen as it tracks eastward
into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area of
westerly gale-force winds north of 27N between 62W and 72W. Seas
will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to move
eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with seas
build higher to between 22 and 30 ft. Once the low has pulled
farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, wind
conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night, while the
large and dangerous swells persist into early next week.

Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event...
Seas at 12 to 14 ft in large NW swell, north of 24N and east of
44W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift
east of 35W by early Fri morning.

Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts
issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on
all three events above.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia
near Monrovia, then curves southwestward to 00N12W. An ITCZ
continues west-southwestward from 00N12W across 03S20W to
northwest of Natal, Brazil at 05S36W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 00N to
05N and east of 11W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen
up to 50 nm along either side of ITCZ.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean
waters near northwestern Colombia and eastern Panama.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1027 mb high emerging into northwestern Gulf is supporting the
western and central Gulf with gentle to moderate N to ENE winds
and seas at 3 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 9
to 11 ft prevail for the eastern Gulf.

For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve
overnight from west to east as high pressure builds across the
Gulf. Mostly moderate to fresh NW winds will follow another cold
front that will move across the eastern Gulf Sat and Sun. High
pressure will build over the northern Gulf in the wake of the
front and remain in control of the weather pattern across the
basin through early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to over
northern Belize and Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 150
nm southeast of this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 7
to 9 ft seas are trapped behind the cold over the northwestern
basin. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft
are found at the southwest of of the basin.

For the forecast, the front will stall from the eastern Dominican
Republic to central Panama Sat, then dissipate by Sun. Fresh to
strong N winds with rough seas will follow the front into Sun.
Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas between Colombia
and Hispaniola early next week as high pressure builds north of
the area following the front

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale
Warnings and Significant Swell.

A strong cold front stretches southwestward from a 1002 mb low off
the Carolinas across 31N74W to beyond the central Bahamas.
Scattered moderate convection are seen up to 150 nm east of the
front. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends westward from
near the Canary Islands to near 22N32W, then as a stationary
front to 25N52. Patchy showers are present up to 50 nm along
either side of this boundary. Refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ
section for additional convection in the CAribbean Sea.

Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and
seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted north of 24N and west of 60W. To the
east, north of 20N between 35W and 60W, moderate to fresh with
locally strong southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft are evident. For the
tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate with
locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail. For the
remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E
to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast, the front will reach from Bermuda to the
Windward Passage Fri morning, from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola
Sat morning, before stalling and weakening from 22N55W to the
Leeward Islands by early Sun. Gale-force winds and rough to very
rough seas behind the front will continue spreading eastward
across the waters on Fri. A reinforcing front will move off the
northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W to the
southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and
dissipate along 22N through early next week. Strong to gale-force
winds will follow the second front north of 27N this weekend. Wave
heights will gradually subside from west to east early next week

$$

Chan