RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 261635
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1635 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12.5W and
continues southwestward to 01S26W. The ITCZ extends from 01S26W
to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 04S to
04N between 11W and 37W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak high pressure supports gentle to moderate breezes across the
basin. Seas are 2-4 ft off the western Yucatan Peninsula, and 1-3
ft elsewhere.

For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the
northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western
coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Sun.
The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning,
reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the
basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas
will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through
early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to
sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and
the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between the ridge north of the basin and
lower pressures in northern South America is supporting fresh to
strong NE-E winds and moderate to locally rough seas in the
south- central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and
moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for gentle winds
over the SW part of the basin and the Mona Passage.

For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with
the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and
moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week.
Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front
moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh
to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through
the early part of next week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N60W to 29N75W. A surface trough
extends from 31N46.5W to 21N56W. A few showers and thunderstorms
are noted near these features. For the remainder of the basin, a
weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas, except for moderate to locally fresh winds east of
the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to
fresh N-NE winds and rough seas are impacting waters north of 20N
and east of 27W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extends from
31N60W to 29N75W. Fresh winds and rough seas north of front will
diminish through the morning as the front dissipates. Moderate
winds and seas will prevail thereafter through late Fri across the
region under the influence of a ridge. Looking ahead, another
strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast
Florida by Sat morning, reach from 31N65W to central Florida by
Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong
winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough
seas will follow the front through early next week.

$$
KRV