RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 170838
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to 04N20W. The
ITCZ continues from 04N20W to 01S49W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 30 nm on either side of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high near
28N85W to south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast
winds along with seas of 3 to 4 ft prevail in the eastern Bay of
Campeche and extending northward to near 23N. Light to gentle
winds, and seas of 1-2 ft, are in the vicinity of the high center.
Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2 to 4 ft, are over the
rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the ridge will remain in place and slowly
weaken through Sat, maintaining a weak pressure gradient across
the basin. This pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate
E to SE winds across most of the basin through Sat. The exception
will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a daily trough will
result in a locally tighter pressure gradient to support a pulsing
of fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving
across the northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the
week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas
by late Mon then dissipate through Tue.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle to moderate
winds, and slight to moderate seas, across the basin.

For the forecast, the surface trough will move slowly westward
and weaken through Sat. This feature will disrupt the typical
weather pattern across the basin with a weaker than usual pressure
gradient. This weaker pressure gradient will support mainly
gentle to moderate winds through the remainder of the forecast
period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the
Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving
into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough extends from Hispaniola to the Turks and Caicos
to southwest of Bermuda. High pressure dominates the remainder of
the discussion waters. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft
prevail over the waters N of 26N between 35W and 70W. Gentle to
moderate winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will dissipate
through Sat. High pressure will build into the area from the east
in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off
the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N
to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it
reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, and from
31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue.

$$
AL