RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172225
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2200 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front that extends from the Florida Big Bend to near
Tampico, Mexico, will move SE and out of the basin by Sun night.
Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front. A corridor
of gales will develop tonight in the west-central Gulf behind the
front and spread eastward into Sun across the central and east
central Gulf, immediately following frontal passage. These gales
will end over the east-central Gulf early Sun evening. Additional
gale conditions will develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, late
tonight and continue through Sun. Rough seas will encompass the
basin behind the front, with very rough seas through the western
and southern Gulf building tonight and continuing through Sun
night. Peak seas over the central Gulf will be around 12 ft, with
seas as much as 15 ft near Veracruz. Conditions will improve Mon
as high pressure builds southward into the region.

Please read the latest High Sea and Offshore
Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at
website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras:
Heavy rainfall is expected over the Gulf of Honduras Sun through
the middle of next week as a shear line or pre-frontal trough
interacts with low-level moisture in the region. The heaviest
precipitation is expected on Tue and Wed, with the most persistent
rain leading to totals of 8 to 12 inches over the southwestern
Gulf of Honduras, and local amounts over 12 inches will be
possible. Widespread amounts of 2 to 6 inches are expected over
the rest of the region. Please consult products from local
meteorological services for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to
03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01N39W. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 05N east of 20W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section for information on the
Gale Warnings in the southwestern basin.

A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle near 30N86W to
E Mexico near 22N97W. Scattered showers are noted along and ahead
of the front in the central and northeastern basin. Recent
scatterometer satellite data and METAR data show fresh to strong
NE winds are occurring in the wake of the front, and buoy data
over the northwestern Gulf show 8-9 ft seas are accompanying
these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SE winds are
noted with seas 2-4 ft over the rest of the Gulf.

For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front that extends from
the Florida Big Bend to near Tampico, Mexico, will move SE and
out of the basin by Sun night. Strong to near gale-force winds
will follow the front. A corridor of gales will develop tonight in
the west- central Gulf behind the front and spread eastward into
Sun across the central and east central Gulf, immediately
following frontal passage. These gales will end over the east-
central Gulf early Sun evening. Additional gale conditions will
develop offshore Veracruz, Mexico, late tonight and continue
through Sun. Rough seas will encompass the basin behind the front,
with very rough seas through the western and southern Gulf
building tonight and continuing through Sun night. Conditions will
improve Mon as high pressure builds southward into the region.
Looking ahead, building high pressure over the SE United States
should cause strengthening NE to E winds over most of the Gulf on
Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

An increasing pressure gradient between the Bermuda-Azores High
building north of the Caribbean and low pressure over N Colombia
is supporting widespread fresh to strong trades over the central
and eastern basin, as seen via recent scatterometer satellite
data. Altimeter satellite data and buoy data show rough seas,
peaking near 10 ft, over the central Caribbean. Moderate to
locally fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas prevail over the
northwestern basin. Elsewhere, an E swell over the central
Atlantic is supporting rough seas of 8-9 ft east of the Lesser
Antilles and through the passages into the eastern Caribbean.

For the forecast, strong trades will prevail in the central
Caribbean this weekend, before diminishing some next week as a
cold front enters the NW basin. Offshore Colombia, the trade winds
will pulse to near gale each night through early next week. The
aforementioned cold front will move through the Yucatan Channel
Sun night, then stall from eastern Cuba to the coast of Honduras
Mon night, before gradually dissipating. This will lead to
thunderstorms and likely heavy rainfall over Honduras and adjacent
waters early next week, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough
seas behind the front through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A trough extends from the central Atlantic near 31N60W to 24N71W,
and recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds are
occurring north and west of this feature as high pressure builds
in the wake of the front. Rough seas occurring in this region are
noted via SOFAR buoy data. Elsewhere, a 1034 mb Bermuda-Azores
High building near 34N37W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E
winds along the periphery of the ridge, generally north of 15N.
Rough seas cover much of the open Atlantic as per altimeter data
and SOFAR data. Farther east, a cold front extends from northwest
Africa to 27N35W, and fresh to strong NE winds and rough to
locally very rough seas are occurring near this front.

For the forecast west of 55W, a building Bermuda-Azores High will
enhance the trades up to fresh east of 65W for the next few days.
A cold front will emerge off the SE United States coast Sun
morning, accompanied strong to near gale-force winds north of 27N.
Winds diminish Mon, and the front will weaken and stall from
Bermuda through The Bahamas by Tue. However, with high pressure
building over the SE United States, an increasing pressure
gradient W of the frontal boundary will boost NW winds to fresh to
strong in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into
the middle of next week.

$$
Landsea/Konarik/Adams