RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

055
AXNT20 KNHC 261656
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1640 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W and extends S then SW to 03N22W to
02N40W. The ITCZ continues from 02N41W to 02.5N47W to the coast of
Brazil near 02.5N51W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to
strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 22W.
Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection
is noted S of 04N between 22W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Weak surface ridging extends from the western Atlantic into the eastern
Gulf this morning, inhibited by two weak surface troughs on either
side of N Florida. A weak 1013 mb high is centered south of the
western Florida Panhandle. Broad low pressure dominates the
western half of the basin. This is allowing the continuation of
gentle to moderate SE winds W of 90W and off the northern coast
of the Yucatan Peninsula, and light to gentle winds elsewhere.
Slight seas prevail basin-wide, with peak seas to 5 ft well
offshore the NW coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. S cluster of
scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is moving
southeastward across SE Louisiana, SE Mississippi, and SW Alabama,
and into the local coastal waters. Dense morning fog restricting
visibilities across large portions of the north-central and
northwestern Gulf waters has burned off and thinned out this
morning, but with still a few offshore oil platforms reporting
visibility's below 3 nm at present.

For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with
a surface trough along Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz, will
support moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas over the
western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight
to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Thu.
In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds
off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf waters
Wed night into Thu.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The remnants of an old frontal boundary linger this morning across
the Atlantic waters N of the Greater Antilles, in the form of a
trough meandering from 22N59W to eastern Cuba. This feature
combined with a front moving into the NW Atlantic waters is
producing a weak pressure gradient across much of the Caribbean,
which is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds over the SE
basin and light to gentle elsewhere, but the NW Caribbean W of 84W
and across the Gulf of Honduras, where moderate to locally fresh
winds are ongoing due to surface high pressure over the E Gulf of
America. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except offshore
Belize, the Yucatan Peninsula and the Gulf of Honduras where seas
are moderate to 4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are
spreading across the Lesser Antilles and into the adjacent
Caribbean waters, producing a zone of convergence and scattered
moderate isolated strong convection from near Guadeloupe S-SW and
inland across central Venezuela near 66W.

For the forecast, the surface trough meandering across the
Atlantic water north of the Greater Antilles will contribute to
a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and
eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Except in the Gulf of
Honduras where moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are
expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds
over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high
pressure builds again N of the area, behind a cold front moving
across the western Atlantic.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weakening cold front extends from 31N46W to 28N52W then becomes
stationary to 31N65W, while a 1020 mb high center is north of the
front near 33N60W. Weak high pressure also prevail E of the front
between 20W and 40W, from 30N to 40N. The associated pressure
gradient between the front and the ridge to the E is supporting
moderate to fresh SW winds N of 26N between 40W and 46W, with seas
of 5 to 7 ft, as well as triggering some showers over those
central subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough is ahead of
the front from 22N52W to 29N45W. Moderate westerly winds prevail
between the front and this trough, to the N of 28N, where seas are
6 to 8 ft in NW swell. Another surface trough, the remnants of an
old front lingering for days across the area, meanders from
22N59W to eastern Cuba, and is supporting scattered moderate
convection from 21N to 26N between 55W and the southern Bahamas.
Surface ridging dominates elsewhere E of the front, as described
above, supporting moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate
seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, the old frontal trough lingering N
of the Greater Antilles will remain in place through today and
gradually dissipate by Mon. A frontal boundary over the NE waters
will continue to support moderate northerly winds and moderate to
rough seas through today. Another cold front is forecast to enter
the waters off NE Florida by tonight, extend from near Bermuda to
South Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by
Tue night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds
and moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of
the front through Mon night.

$$
Stripling