RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 100451
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the
Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support
fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today,
and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds
offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during
the night-time hours tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected
with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for
the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for
northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/0000 UTC at least.
Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind
speeds. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas
Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W then continues SW to near 01.5N21W. Then the ITCZ
extends from 01.5N21W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near
02S45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N to
08N E of 15W to the coast of Africa, near 02N20W, and S of 01N
between 35W and 45W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1022 mb high pressure
located over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are
found across most of the basin, with slight to moderate seas. An
area of moderate to fresh easterly winds is noted over the SE Gulf
within about 90 nm of the coast of western Cuba. Moderate E winds
and moderate seas prevail in the Straits of Florida.

For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the
basin will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between
the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly
moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and
strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the
evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern
Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front
will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before
moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the
front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will
build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving
thereafter.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see Special Features section above regarding developing
Gale conditions in the south-central Caribbean.

Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds
across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela.
Similar wind speeds are also observed across the Windward Passage.
These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the
Colombian low and the Atlantic high pressure. Winds are moderate
to fresh across the remaining basin, except for light winds in far
SW portions near the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama.
Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean
near the coast of Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8
ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate
seas are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba
where slight seas are noted. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic
passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over
parts of Cuba and Hispaniola, more concentrated over Haiti. Passing
showers dot much of the east and central portions of the basin.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High
and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across
the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed
night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-
force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to strong
winds will linger in the south-central Caribbean into the upcoming
weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near
the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu. Moderate to
fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba
through Wed night. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical
North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through
Wed night. Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of
the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front
approaching the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An upper-level low is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms
across the waters from 21N to 30N between 34W and 43W. A surface
trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N39W to 22N41W.
Fresh to strong SE winds are on the E side of the trough axis to
about 30W. A ridge continues to dominate the remainder of the
Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1030 mb high pressure located E
of Bermuda near 32N58W, and a 1037 mb high pressure situated over
the Azores. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds N of
18N and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Strong to minimal
gale-force N winds are noted per scatterometer data near southern
Morrocco. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 26N and west
of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the Bahamas and
west of 70W. Moderate to rough seas in E swell are noted in this
region of fresh winds as well as east of the Lesser Antilles.
Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over
the rest of the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds
will prevail south of 26N through midweek, reaching strong speeds
north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas
will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast
Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected
elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may
develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That
front will move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and
building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda
to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build
across the basin for the start of the weekend.

$$
GR