RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 130419
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Jan 13 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0400 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of
Guinea near 10N14W, and extends southwestward to near 07N16W,
where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01N26W to 01N34W and to near
01N45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen near the ITCZ from
00N to 05N between 35W and 44W, and also within 30 nm north of
the ITCZ between 21W and 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A stationary front extends from western Cuba to inland the Yucatan
Peninsula. Strong high pressure is building across the region in
the wake of the front. Strong to near gale-force northwest winds
are over the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz, Mexico as seen in the
0354Z Ascat pass. Fresh to strong northeast winds are elsewhere
south of 24N. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds are over
the remainder of the Gulf per latest buoy observations and as
indicated by recent Ascat satellite data passes. Seas in the far
SW Gulf have slowly subsided to 9 to 13 ft. Seas elsewhere south
of 24N are 6 to 8 ft and 4 to 6 ft north of 24N. Scattered showers
are confined to the SW and west-central Gulf zones.

For the forecast, wind and sea conditions will improve across the
Gulf later tonight into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds will
prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front
is forecast to push into the Gulf Wed night into early Thu,
followed by increasing winds and building seas, with the front
shifting quickly southeast of the basin Thu afternoon. Looking
ahead, conditions should improve Thu night into the weekend as
high pressure shifts across the N Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front stretches from western Cuba to the Yucatan
Peninsula. A strong and broad surface ridge northeast of the
Caribbean continues to support fresh to strong northeast winds
and seas of 7 to 9 ft over the south-central portion of the basin.
Mostly fresh northeast winds are in the Windward Passage and in
the lee of Cuba. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Moderate to
locally fresh northeast to east winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are
elsewhere across the basin, with the exception of the northwestern
Caribbean north of 20N, where mostly fresh northeast winds are
found. Similar winds are over and near the Yucatan Channel. Seas
are also 4 to 6 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 6
to 8 ft in a north swell over the waters north of 18N west of 85W,
including near and in the Yucatan Channel.

For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northeast to east
winds will pulse offshore of northwest Colombia through much of
the week and into the upcoming weekend due to the pressure
gradient between high pressure north of the region and low
pressure over Colombia. Pulsing moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward
passage, and in the lee of Cuba through Tue night or so. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds will prevail. The stationary front will
weaken and dissipate today. Looking ahead, another cold front is
expected to move across the northwestern Caribbean on Thu, then
stall from eastern Cuba to Honduras on Fri and dissipate on Sat.
The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later
in the upcoming weekend leading to increasing winds across the
basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W to 29N69W, where it
transitions to a stationary front to 27.5N71.5W, to the central
Bahamas and to across west-central Cuba and continues to the
northern Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers are occurring along
and near the front. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show
gentle to moderate northeast winds behind the front, except for a
swath of fresh northeast winds from 26N to 28N between 65W and 80W.
Seas are 7 to 10 ft behind the front east of 74W and 5 to 7 ft west
of 74W.

To the east of the front, a couple of weak troughs are noted.
One extends from near 26N70W to 21N72W, and the other one from
near 25N60W to near 21N67W. No deep convection is occurring with
these features. Scattered to locally broken low clouds, with
possible isolated showers are next these troughs. In the tropical
Atlantic, an upper-level low is identified on water vapor imagery
near 22N51W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen
from 20N to 23N between 48W and 52W. A large area of moderate
rain, with embedded scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
is to the east-southeast of the low from 17N to 23N between 43W
and 47W.

In the far northeast part of the discussion area, a cold front
extends southwestward from near 31N17W to 28N25W, where it
begins to weaken to 28N29W and to near 28N38W. Isolated showers
are possible along and near the front. A second fast-moving cold
front is along 31N between 19W and 28W. Cold-air advection follows
in behind this front. Satellite imagery shows scattered to broken
stratocumulus clouds with the cold air advection.

Mostly fresh trade winds are present south of 25N east of about
53W while gentle to moderate northeast to east winds are east and
southeast of the western Atlantic frontal boundary. Seas are
generally 5 to 7 ft east and southeast of this same boundary, with
the exception of higher seas 7 to 9 ft in long period northeast
to east swell confined to the waters south of 21N between 26W and
48W. The other exception is the lower seas of 3 to 5 ft over the
waters in the vicinity of the Bahamas, and also south of 22N
between 70W and Cuba.

For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary that extends
from 31N62W, to 29N69W, to 27.5N71.5W, to the central Bahamas and
to across west-central Cuba will dissipate today. High pressure
will build eastward off the United States southeast coast behind
the front. A strong pre-frontal trough is forecast to emerge off
the coast of northeast Florida Wed morning, and quickly move
eastward accompanied by fresh to strong winds along with scattered
showers and thunderstorms north of 27N. Looking ahead, the next
cold front is forecast to move over the waters east of northern
Florida Thu morning, reach from near Bermuda to the southeastern
Bahamas Fri morning, then extend from near 31N58W to 25N70W Sat
morning, where it will stall and weaken. Gale conditions are
possible both behind and ahead of the front north of 29N Thu night
through Fri morning.

$$
Aguirre