RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 041007
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Dec 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1005 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from Sierra Leone near 08N13W to 06N20W.
The ITCZ stretches from 06N20W to 05N53W. Scattered moderate
convection is present from south of 10N and east of 30W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A warm front extends from a 1013 mb low pressure centered over
the central Texas coast to the eastern Gulf waters. Moderate to
fresh easterly SE-E winds are found in the western and central
Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter
winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh southerly winds over the
western and central Gulf will diminish later today. A cold front
will enter the NW waters this afternoon and fresh to strong N
winds are expected in its wake. The front will extend from SE
Louisiana to near Tampico, Mexico Fri morning, then stall and also
lift north toward the northern Gulf on Sat. Looking ahead, a
stronger cold front is likely to sweep across the Gulf region Sun
into Mon, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds over much of the
basin. This front is forecast to move SE of the area late on Mon
or Mon night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers are evident over the eastern Caribbean, while generally
fair conditions persist elsewhere. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E
winds are found over much of the basin. Seas of 4-7 ft are present
in the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, while slight seas
prevail in the NW Caribbean.

For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic
will gradually slide eastward, supporting moderate to fresh
easterly winds over much of the basin through early next week.
Locally strong NE winds may pulse at night off NW Colombia
tonight. Meanwhile, locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist
across the NE Caribbean passages into early next week. Looking
ahead, a cold front may approach the NW Caribbean early next week.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from 31N67W to Miami, Florida. No
significant convection is seen west of 60W. Moderate easterly
winds and moderate seas are found south of 23N and west of 70W.
Light to gentle winds and moderate to locally rough seas are
present elsewhere west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough and
divergence aloft support numerous showers and isolated
thunderstorms north of 26N and between 50W and 60W. The remainder
of the central and eastern Atlantic sustain fresh to strong
easterly winds and rough seas to 11 ft over much of the area,
especially south of 25N. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary portion of the front
is likely to dissipate today into Fri, while the cold front,
mainly north of our area, continues eastward. High pressure will
follow the front. The next cold front is expected to clip the
waters offshore of NE Florida late Fri into Sat, resulting in
fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas
N of 28N and east of 70W. Conditions will improve Sun, but a
stronger cold front reaching the same area on Mon. Fresh to strong
winds and rough seas will develop north of 26N Mon and quickly
shift eastward. Conditions will improve Tue.

$$
Delgado