RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

968
AXNT20 KNHC 011733
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Fri May 1 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1722 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong late-season cold front
will emerge off the Texas and Louisiana coast this evening. The
front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat,
then from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before
stalling over the southeastern Gulf Mon. The front will be
followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds
reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz early on Sat,
and Sat afternoon and evening near Veracruz. Frequent gusts to
gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf including the coastal
waters. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft in the area of
strongest winds through the weekend. Mariners are advised to keep
up with the latest forecasts. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS
FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N13W southwestward to 03N17W.
The ITCZ extends from 03N17W to 04S36W. Numerous scattered moderate
convection is ongoing south of 00N and west of 26W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a
Gale Warning in the western Gulf.

A stationary front extends from north of Cedar Key, Florida to
Port O'Connor, Texas. Scattered moderate convection is depicted
along the front. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE winds are found
south of 26N and west of 87W, along with 3-5 ft seas. Northeast to
east moderate winds are found over the northern Gulf along with 2
to 4 ft seas. Mainly gentle variable winds are across the
remainder of the basin, with 1 to 3 ft seas. Areas of smoke due
to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting
visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the
west and northwest Yucatan coasts in the Bay of Campeche.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will prevail over the
western Gulf with light to gentle winds over the eastern Gulf
through this afternoon, locally strong near Yucatan this evening.
A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas and
Louisiana coast this evening. The front will reach from northern
Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sat, then from central Florida to
the Yucatan peninsula on Sun before stalling over the southeastern
Gulf Mon. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to
northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico
and Veracruz early on Sat, and Sat afternoon and evening near
Veracruz. Frequent gusts to gale-force are forecast in the NW Gulf
including the coastal waters. Seas are forecast to build to
around 14 ft in the area of strongest winds through the weekend.
Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecasts. Marine
conditions should significantly improve early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The pressure gradient between a 1016 mb high pressure northeast
of the eastern Bahamas and a 1006 mb low pressure over northern
Colombia is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northern
Colombia and NW Venezuela, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas
are about 5 to 8 ft in these areas. Moderate to fresh easterly
trades prevail elsewhere, along with 3 to 6 ft seas, except for
light to gentle winds in the lee of Cuba. Scattered moderate
convection is occurring south of 12N over the SW Caribbean,
supported by a mid to upper- level trough persisting across the NW
Caribbean. Additional moisture associated to an upper level
trough extends from across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands to
south of Hispaniola near 14N71W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure
north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to
fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Mon,
reaching strong speeds at times in the south-central Caribbean and
in the Gulf of Honduras with locally rough seas. A weakening cold
front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night,
stalling just north of there into Mon. This will slight weaken the
pressure gradient and winds.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak 1011 mb surface low near 30N79.5W extends a warm front to
29.5N76.5W. Then, a cold front extends from 29.5N76.5W to beyond
31N69W over the western Atlantic. A 1016 mb high pressure is NE
of the Eastern Bahamas near 24.5N67.5W. Mainly gentle to moderate
winds prevail across the waters west 55W with 4-6 ft seas. To the
east, a cold front extends from a occluded 1005 mb low north of
the area near 34.5N42W to 31N37W to 29.5N57W. To the SE an old
frontal boundary extends from 30N30W to 20.5N62.5W. Scattered
moderate convection is depicted along this feature. Moderate to
fresh SW-W winds are found across the waters north of 23N, roughly
between 26W and 55W. Seas are 6-8 ft across this area in NW-N
swell. A 1021 mb high pressure near 28N21W extends ridge that
reaches southwestward to near 20N52W. Gentle to moderate winds
dominate the remainder of the waters along with 4-7 ft seas in
mainly NW-N swell, with locally fresh winds from 13N to 18N
between Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front over
the western Atlantic will move eastward across the north waters
through Sat while dissipating. Another cold front will move off
the northeast Florida coast on Sat afternoon, reach from near
31N68W to Cape Canaveral, Florida on Sun, then stall through Mon.
Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time.
Fresh to strong southwest winds will precede the front Sat and Sat
night. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front
through Mon, along with locally rough seas near 31N. The remnants
of the front should wash out Tue and Tue night with improving
marine conditions.

$$
KRV