RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 252018
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sun Apr 26 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2000 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends SW
to 01S31W. The ITCZ continues from 01S31W to 01S41W. Scattered to
locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted south 0f
04N between Africa and Brazil.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted on satellite
imagery in the northeast Gulf north of 26N and east of 87W
associated with an analyzed outflow boundary. A weak 1004 mb low
pressure area is analyzed along a surface trough over the waters
offshore Veracruz with little impacts other than localized wind
shifts. Otherwise, weak surface ridging extends over the eastern
Gulf with a 1013 high pressure center near 28N84W. Light to gentle
SE-S winds and 1-2 ft seas are east of 89W, with gentle to
moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas west of 89W.

For the forecast, a ridge across the Gulf waters, combined with a
coastal trough near Mexico, will support moderate to fresh SE
winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and
gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the
eastern part of the basin through the middle of next week. In
addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Thu night.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in a cluster of strong thunderstorms currently affecting
the waters between the western Florida Panhandle and SE Louisiana.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient is supporting mainly gentle E to SE
winds over the Caribbean, except for locally moderate winds over
the SE basin and in the eastern Gulf of Honduras, locally fresh
there per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Seas of 1-3 ft are
between 70W and 85W, and 2-4 ft elsewhere, locally higher near
Atlantic passages.

For the forecast, a surface trough is located north of the area
roughly along 23W between Cuba and the Bahamas. This weather
pattern will continue to support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the
entire basin, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to
fresh E to SE winds are expected mainly at night. Otherwise, winds
are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and
central Caribbean Mon night through mid-week as high pressure
builds again N of the area.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A surface trough, remnants of an old frontal boundary, extends
from 24N65W westward to the Straits of Florida. This features are
supporting nearby scattered to isolated moderate convection.
Fresh to locally strong winds in connection to the areas of
convection are possible. The remaining subtropical Atlantic is
under the influence of broad ridging. A cold front is just north
of 31N to the southeast of Bermuda with associated fresh to strong
SW-W winds across our waters north of 29N between 52W and 62W.
Large associated seas are well ahead of the front, with 7-10 ft
likely north of 27N between roughly 43W and 63W. Fresh to locally
strong northerly winds are offshore northern Morocco north of 29N,
as well as from 20N to 24N due to locally tight pressure
gradients. Elevated seas of 6-8 ft are in these areas. Mainly
gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters,
locally fresh south of 20N. Seas are 2-4 ft west of 80W, and
mainly 4-7 ft in mixed swells across the remainder of the waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough in the SW N
Atlantic will remain in place through Sun and gradually dissipate
by Mon. A cold front approaching from the N will bring moderate to
fresh SW to W winds and rough seas over the NE offshore waters
through Sun. Another cold front is forecast to enter the waters
off NE Florida by Sun night, extend from near Bermuda to South
Florida by Mon night, and from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas by Tue
night before dissipating. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and
moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front N of 27N.

$$
Lewitsky