RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 221803
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 05N16W. An
ITCZ continues from 05N16W across 02N30W to near the Amazon Delta
area. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring
up near and south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 00N to 05N
between 10W and 20W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong
convection is seen near the ITCZ from 01N to 03N between 27W and
31W, and from 00N to 04N west of 40W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A surface trough is triggering scattered showers at the central
Gulf. Otherwise, a modest surface ridge extending southwestward
from the Florida Panhandle to near Tampico, Mexico dominates most
of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5
ft are present at the eastern and central Gulf. Light to gentle
winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the western Gulf.

For the forecast, the modest ridge will be replaced by a stronger
high pressure from the north on Fri night and Sat. An arctic cold
front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf this weekend,
followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas.
Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front may bring gale
conditions first offshore of Tampico Sun night, then offshore of
Veracruz on Mon. North winds may reach to near-gale force across
portions of the northwestern Gulf Sun and Sun night.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough embedded within the trades is triggering widely
scattered showers across the northeastern basin. Fresh to strong
NE to E trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are present at the
south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas are noted at the north-central and part of the southwestern
basin, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to E
winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean
Sea.

For the forecast, NE to E winds will pulse to near-gale force
over the offshore waters of Colombia at night through into early
next week. Broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain
mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central basin as well as
the Tropical North Atlantic waters through early next week. Large
N swell over the Tropical North Atlantic will slowly subside
through the weekend, however, seas there will remain at about 8 ft
in an E swell.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Two surface troughs are generating scattered showers off
northeastern and central Florida to 72W, including the northwest
Bahamas. Another surface trough is producing scattered showers
from 25N to 30N between 57W and 62W. The leading edge of a trade-
wind surge is causing scattered moderate convection east of the
Lesser Antilles from 14N to 19N between 50W and 56W.

A 1034 mb high at the central Atlantic is supporting gentle to
moderate NNE to E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in easterly
swell exist north of 27N between 35W and 72W. West of 72W and
north of 25N, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas
are noted. Farther south from 04N to 25N/27N and west of 35W,
fresh to strong NE to E trade winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft are
present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W,
Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high at the
central Atlantic will continue to promote fresh to strong
NE to E winds and rough seas east of about 75W today. The
pressure gradient over the western Atlantic will continue to
support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the
Straits of Florida through the remainder of this morning. An
arctic cold front will move offshore northeastern Florida Sun
night, preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds and building
seas.

$$

Chan