RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 172341
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2315 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near the coastal
border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then reaches southwestward
to 01N26W, and west-northwestward to 01N38W and west-southwestward
to near the Amazon River Delta. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is from 01N to 03N between 22W-27W, and from 05S
to 02S between 26W-31W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60
nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-44W, also within 60 nm south of the
ITCZ between 33W-36W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 27W-
35W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1019 mb high
center that is near the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico,
Mexico. Moderate to fresh southeast winds are over most of the
western half of the Gulf. Seas with these wind are 4 to 6 ft. Latest
buoy observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate light to
gentle winds in the NE portion of the Gulf, while gentle moderate
easterly winds are over the rest of the Gulf, with the exception of
moderate northeast to east winds in the far southeastern part of the
basin near western Cuba and in the Straits of Florida. Seas in the
range of 3 to 5 ft are over the remainder of the Gulf, except for
lower seas of less than 3 ft in the NE and eastern Gulf sections.

For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge across the northern
Gulf will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat,
maintaining mostly gentle to moderate east to southeast winds
across most of the basin. The exception will be off the Yucatan
Peninsula, where a daily trough will result in a locally tighter
pressure gradient to support a pulsing of fresh to strong winds
during the evenings. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds
and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the
northern Gulf Sat night through the early part of the upcoming
week. The front will stall from the Straits of Florida to South
Texas by late Mon, then dissipate into mid week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Water vapor imagery reveals a lingering mid to upper-level
trough that extends from the central Atlantic southwestward to
across the eastern portion of Hispaniola and continues southwestward
to near 13N75W. A surface trough is analyzed from eastern Cuba
southward to 16N79W. Abundant moisture east of these features in
combination with dynamics aloft related to the mid to upper- level
trough is resulting in an unsettled weather pattern for the eastern
Caribbean. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along with
overcast multilayer clouds are observed east of a line from 18N63.5W
to 11N69W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 15N
between 64W and 70W, including the west-southwestern sections of
Puerto Rico and over parts of Hispaniola and waters adjacent its
eastern and central sections. The unsettled weather conditions will
continue for the eastern Caribbean through the weekend.

Moderate to fresh trades are over the eastern Caribbean along
with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Mostly gentle trades are over the rest
of the basin. Seas are 2 to 4 ft elsewhere in the basin, including
the Gulf of Honduras.

For the forecast, A surface trough extending across eastern Cuba
and Jamaica will drift slowly westward and weaken through Sat.
This feature will disrupt the typical weather pattern across the
basin with a weaker than usual pressure gradient. This weaker
pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds
through the remainder of the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may
develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated
with a late-season cold front moving into Cuba.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A broad surface trough extends southward from near Bermuda across
31N69W to beyond the central Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank. Isolated
weak showers are present from 25N to 30N between the trough and 76W
and north of 29N east of the trough to near 67W. Refer to the
Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional weather
in the Atlantic Basin.

The pressure gradient related to high pressure of 1022 mb north of
the area at 32N50W is generally providing for light to gentle winds
north of 25N between 35W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast.
Seas of 4 to 6 ft are within this area of winds as noted in SoFar
buoy and altimeter satellite data. Moderate to fresh northeast to
east winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed swell are over the rest of
the basin.

For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough
will dissipate through Sat. High pressure will build into the
area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is
forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.
Expect fresh to strong north to northeast winds and building
seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from near Bermuda to
the Florida Straits by late Mon, from near 31N60W to central
Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly
22N through midweek.

$$
Aguirre