RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 191033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1010 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect, issued by
Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira,
and Meteor until 20/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer
to the next Special Feature for details on associated large swells.
Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the
website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details.

East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell
generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the
northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N
through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N
of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these
northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage
and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please
refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea
near 10N14W, then curves southwestward to 04N17W. The ITCZ
continues from 04N17W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near
01S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is ongoing
from 03S to 05N west of 10W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A 1025 mb high pressure system near the mouth of the Mississippi
River dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures associated with a stationary front
east of the area results in fresh to strong NE winds across the
Florida Straits with rough seas, and moderate to fresh NE winds
and moderate seas elsewhere in the eastern Gulf, east of 90W.
Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across
the Gulf region and a stationary front over the NW Caribbean Sea
will continue to support fresh to locally strong NE winds and
moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of
Florida, through Fri. A surface trough will come off the Yucatan
Peninsula every evening with moderate to fresh NE winds, which
will affect the eastern Bay of Campeche from Sat through Mon.
Elsewhere moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas
will prevail.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A stationary front extends from central Cuba to the Gulf on
Honduras. A surface trough is ahead of the front curving SE to NW
Colombia offshore waters. Low level convergence induced by both
the front and the pre-frontal trough continue to support scattered
showers across E Cuba and adjacent waters N of 17N. Moderate to
fresh northerly winds with seas to 7 ft are behind of the front
over the NW Caribbean. Over the eastern and central Caribbean,
moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas
will continue to follow the stationary front through Fri night as
it transitions to a cold front today before dissipating offshore
Nicaragua late Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will
remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba
and the Windward Passage as high pressure develops across the
northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts
slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore
Colombia Sun through Mon night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east
Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large
northerly swells.

A stationary front extends from 31N69W to Andros Island to
central Cuba into the NW Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough is
analyzed from 30N66W to the southern Bahamas. Heavy showers and
isolated thunderstorms associated with both features cover the
offshore waters between 61W and 78W. Fresh to strong NE winds
and moderate to rough seas are noted behind of the front while
moderate to fresh SE winds are ahead of it along with moderate to
rough seas.

An extensive 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 38N44W
dominates the remainder SW N Atlantic and central subtropical
waters. Over the eastern subtropical waters, a cold front is
moving across the Canary Islands with a reinforcing front trailing
the leading front. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge
and the low pressure system associated with the front is
supporting fresh to near gale-force winds and very rough seas to
22 ft, N of 24N and east of 41W to the coast of Africa. Moderate
to fresh winds and rough seas under a relatively tight pressure
gradient are present between 60W and 41W, including the tropical
waters.

For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly
stationary west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas today, then it
will transition to a cold front as a low pressure attached to the
front moves quickly NE of the forecast area through Sat night.
High pressure over the SE CONUS and over the north-central
Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough
seas on either side of the front and across the offshore forecast
waters N of 25N through the weekend. A new cold front is forecast
to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, which
will bring strong winds and rough seas to the area.

$$
Ramos