RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 031755
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1815 UTC Wed Sep 3 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1800 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Eastern Atlantic Tropical Wave: An eastern Atlantic tropical wave
is along 32W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. Numerous
moderate convection is observed from 06N to 15N between 24W and
37W. Environmental conditions remain conducive for additional
development of this system during the next several days, and a
tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this
weekend. This system is expected to move westward to west-
northwestward at around 15 mph across the eastern and central
tropical Atlantic into early next week. There is a medium chance
of formation within the next 2 days, and a high chance within the
next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at
www.hurricanes.gov for more details.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 58W from 21N southward,
and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is
occurring from 10N to 15N between 51W and 58W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Senegal near 15N17W and continues to 13N20W and to 11N40W. The
ITCZ extends from 11N40W to 10.5N56W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N and east of
23W. More scattered moderate convection is seen from 09N to 13N
between 43W and 50W.

The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough extends
across the far SW Caribbean. Scattered moderate and isolated
strong convection is seen generally S of 13N and W of 80W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A dissipating stationary front and a remnant frontal trough extend
from the Florida Straits across the central to NW Gulf. Numerous
moderate and isolated strong convection are seen from 23N to 28N
and E of 91W in the Gulf. Outside of convection, weak ridging
across the basin maintains moderate or weaker winds and seas of
1-3 ft.

For the forecast, a nearly stationary front extending from the
Florida Keys to the north-central Gulf near 27N90W will gradually
weaken today, becoming a frontal trough and likely persisting over
the east-central Gulf through Fri. This system will continue to
generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms,
mainly across the eastern part of the basin. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure gradient in place will maintain gentle to moderate winds
with slight to locally moderate seas through the forecast period.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A frontal boundary running through the Florida Straits continues
to support scattered moderate convection along the S coast of
Cuba. Other convection in the basin is associated with the East
Pacific monsoon trough. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between
weak ridging in the NE Caribbean and the 1011 mb Colombia Low
maintains moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas in the south-
central Caribbean. The remainder of the Caribbean is seeing
moderate or weaker trades and slight seas prevail.

For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge centered west of the Azores
near 34N37W combined with lower pressures in northern Colombia
will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds along with
moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean through Sat.
Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off
Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri night. In addition,
moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas
will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from a 1009 mb low near 32N74W southwestward
through the northern Bahamas and the Florida Straits. Scattered
moderate and isolated strong convection is seen N of Cuba between
the front and 72W. Moderate to fresh SSW winds and 5-8 ft seas are
ahead of the front out to about 65W and N of 23N. Farther east, a
surface trough is analyzed from 27N55W to 22N57W, with scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms seen generally within 200 nm
of the trough axis.

Much of the remaining Atlantic is under the influence of a
subtropical ridge, stemming from the 1026 mb Bermuda-Azores high.
Scatterometer and altimeter data confirm moderate to fresh trades
and moderate seas across much of the Atlantic N of 10N. Areas
north of 20N and E of 20W are seeing fresh to locally strong
trades and seas of 6-8 ft. Much of the remaining Atlantic is
seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 3-6 ft seas.

For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front will
persist across the NW part of the forecast region extending SW
across the NW Bahamas and the Florida Keys. The pressure gradient
between the Atlantic ridge and the front supports an area of fresh
to strong southerly winds with moderate to rough seas north of
27N and between 70W and 73W. These winds will persist through late
today. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms E of the
front are affecting the Bahamas, the Straits of Florida and Cuba.
Unsettled weather conditions will continue ahead of the front over
the next few days. Stronger winds and higher seas are likely near
the strongest storms. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will continue
to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast waters,
supporting gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas.

$$
Adams