RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 171033
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1215 UTC Sat Jan 17 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Gulf of America Gale Warning:
A cold front extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas will
reach the NE Gulf this morning, then sweep across the rest of the
Gulf through Sunday night. Fresh to strong NW to N winds behind
the front will peak at near-gale to gale-force across the west-
central and central Gulf late tonight through Sunday morning, and
off Veracruz, Mexico on Sunday. Seas under the strongest winds
will reach 13 to 15 ft. Conditions should gradually improve from
north to south starting Sunday afternoon. Please read the latest
High Sea and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National
Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and
https://nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshore.php for more details.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of
Guinea and Sierra Leone, then runs southwestward to 06N17W. The
ITCZ curves westward from 06N17W through 03N30W to 03N46W.
Scattered moderate convection is observed from 00N to 15N between
07W and 39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning.

A broad surface ridge, extending from a 1028 mb high pressure
just NW of Bermuda, is dominating the eastern half of the Gulf and
supporting moderate and weaker winds through this morning. In the
western half of the Gulf, lower pressures dominate ahead of a
cold front extending from SW Louisiana to southern Texas.

For the forecast, the cold front will progress E today with
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, reaching from the
Big Bend of Florida to the Bay of Campeche Sun morning, and moving
SE of the Gulf by Sun night. Near gale to gale-force N winds are
anticipated to occur along the front tonight into Sun afternoon,
as well as over the typical coastal waters adjacent to
Tampico/Veracruz Sun morning into Sun night. Winds should steadily
diminish on late on Sun and on Mon. Looking ahead, building high
pressure over the SE United States should cause strengthening NE
to E winds over most of the Gulf on Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

The tail of a weakening stationary front extends from E Cuba to
NW Jamaica adjacent waters and is generating scattered heavy
showers and tstms across the Windward Passage, Jamaica and
adjacent waters. High pressure building N of the area in the wake
of the front is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E across the NW
Caribbean along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas are also ongoing in the E Caribbean while
a tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to strong across the
central basin with rough seas to 9 ft.

For the forecast, the weakening stationary front will dissipate
today. Fresh to strong trades will prevail offshore of NW Colombia
and the central Caribbean today through Wed night, reaching near-
gale force at night tonight and into Tue night. Looking ahead, a
new cold front will enter the NW Caribbean Sun night, and as high
pressure builds in behind it, fresh to strong NE winds should
prevail through Tue night.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A stationary front extends from east of Bermuda near 31N57W to 25N68W
to E Cuba, supporting scattered heavy showers across the Great
Bahama Bank and the Turks and Caicos. Ahead of the front, a pre-
frontal trough may bring some showers to Puerto Rico adjacent
waters today. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under
the influence of the Azores High, except for the far E Atlantic
where the tail of a cold front extends from the coast of NW Africa
to near 27N28W. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and the
front is supporting a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds
from the Cape Verde Islands to 30N E of 49W.

For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front east of
Bermuda is expected to dissipate today. Also today, a building
Bermuda-Azores High will enhance the trades up to fresh to strong
east of 65W for the next few days. Another cold front will emerge
from the SE United States coast on Sun accompanied by fresh to
strong winds, scattered showers, and isolated thunderstorms north
of 27N. Winds with the front will diminish on Mon. Looking ahead,
building high pressure over the SE United States on Tue and Wed
will boost NE winds to fresh to strong over and north of the
Bahamas.

$$
Ramos