RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 190427
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0425 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1035 mb
high pressure system west of the Azores and the Colombian low is
supporting fresh to strong winds N of Colombia through the
forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale force winds at night
offshore Colombia through Wed. Rough to locally very rough seas
are forecast with the strongest winds.

Please read the latest High Seas Forecast
issued by the National Hurricane Center at website:
https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details.

Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through
northern Central America:
Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through
midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal
trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching
the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected
to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into
northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be
possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological
services for additional information.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra
Leone near 08N13W and extends to 06N17W. The ITCZ extends from
06N17W to 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection within 200 nm on
both sides of the ITCZ.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

The cold front that was moving across the Gulf waters is currently
east of the basin. A 1027 mb high pressure system dominates the
Gulf, supporting moderate to fresh N winds east of a line from the
Florida Big Bend to 20N97W in the SW Gulf. Rough to very rough
seas are occurring in the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to rough seas
are found in the eastern and south-central Gulf. Elsewhere,
moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, lingering fresh to strong N winds in the Bay of
Campeche will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds tonight,
however rough seas are forecast to subside late Mon. High
pressure will build southward into the region on Mon with
improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening
high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to
locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including
the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy
Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek, as well
as a gale warning off the coast of Colombia.

A cold front extends from the Bay of Pigs in western Cuba to the
Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident
in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front, between the Cayman
Islands and Jamaica. A tight pressure gradient behind the front
forces fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas. The
remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical
ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central
Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas
prevail across the rest of the basin.

For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from central
Cuba to the eastern Gulf of Honduras on Mon morning, then stall
over the same area by Tue morning, before gradually dissipating.
Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast in the
wake of the front through Wed evening. Periods of significant
heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical
moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in the northwest
Caribbean. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur in northern
Honduras early Tue through early Wed, where totals in excess of 12
inches will be possible..

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A storm-force low off the Mid-Atlantic extends a cold front
southwestward that enters our waters near 31N75W and continues to
the NW Bahamas and west-central Cuba. Scattered showers and
isolated thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front. A recent
scatterometer satellite pass captured strong to near gale-force
winds ahead of the boundary, mainly north of 30N. Rough seas are
evident in these waters. Moderate to fresh winds winds and
moderate to rough seas are found elsewhere in the SW North
Atlantic, mainly west of 65W.

The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad
1035 mb high pressure system west of the Azores. The pressure
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep
tropics and Africa result in fresh to strong easterly winds and
rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic.
Divergence aloft support scattered showers and isolated
thunderstorms from 12N to 23N and between 42W and 51W.

For the forecast west of 55W, a strong Atlantic high pressure will
enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through Thu. A
cold front, currently moving across the northern Bahamas, will
bring fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas north of 27N through
tonight. In addition, the pressure gradient between the
aforementioned high pressure and the front will also support fresh
to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through
tonight. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas
by Mon morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on
Tue morning, then stall on Wed from near 31N60W to the central
Bahamas before dissipating. High pressure building over the SE of
the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in
the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle
of the week.

$$
Delgado