RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 240359
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Fri Apr 24 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea
near 11N15W, then curves southwestward to 00N35W. The ITCZ
extends from 02N22W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated
strong convection is observed south of 05N and east of 30W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A few showers are seen over the SE Gulf waters, especially close
to the coast of Cuba. Generally dry conditions are noted
elsewhere. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are
found in the eastern Bay of Campeche and SE Gulf. However,
mariners may experience stronger gusts associated with the
stronger convection. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or
lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail.

Satellite images indicate that smoke from agricultural fires in SE
Mexico is affecting the SW Gulf waters. Mariners may experience
diminished visibility in the area.

For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region,
with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This
will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas
basin-wide through the weekend into the early part of next week.
The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal
trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings.
Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are
likely in an area of showers and thunderstorms currently located
over the far SE Gulf and the Florida Straits, which is moving
eastward tonight.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of
18N due to a stationary front draped across Hispaniola and
between eastern Cuba and Jamaica and divergence aloft. Meanwhile,
drier weather conditions evident in the rest of the basin. The
pressure gradient between a weak ridge to the north of the islands
and the frontal boundary supports fresh to locally strong NE-E
winds and moderate seas in the Windward Passage. Moderate to
locally fresh easterly winds and slight seas are found in the lee
of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to
moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken
over the next couple of days as the remnants of a frontal
boundary, currently located north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico,
lifts northward as a trough during the upcoming weekend. This
weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure
gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend, resulting in
mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas
across the entire basin.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold front extends from a low pressure near the Azores to
31N42W and to 26N51W, followed by a stationary front to
Hispaniola. A few showers are noted near this boundary. Moderate
to fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present ahead of
the front to 31W and north of 27N. Rough seas are noted behind the
front to 51W and north of 27N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly
winds and moderate seas are evident south of 25N and west of 60W.
The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated
by a broad subtropical ridge.

The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a 1020
mb high pressure system near 27N30W. The pressure gradient between
this ridge and lower pressures in western Africa support moderate
to fresh northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft from 08N to 27N and
east of 23W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas
prevail.

A cold front extends southwestward from a 1001 mb low north of
the area near 38N40W south-southwestward to 31N45W and to
25N53W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 20N61W and
to across north-central Hispaniola and to Haiti. A trough extends
from the northern Leeward Islands to near 15N65W. Isolated
showers are possible near the trough.

For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from near
31N41W to 25N50W where it becomes a stationary front to
Hispaniola near 19N69W. The front will remain nearly stationary
just N of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico on Fri. The remnant moisture
associated with the frontal boundary will lift northward as a
trough Sat through Sun. A weak low may develop along the trough
axis E of the Bahamas on Sun. This will support gentle to moderate
winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast
area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters
where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are
expected beginning on Fri as another cold front clips the region
by late Sat into Sun.

$$
Delgado