RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 032308
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0015 UTC Tue Nov 4 2025

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
2300 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A tropical wave has its axis along 81W south of 21N, moving
westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong
convection is occurring S of 20N between 78W-86W.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W to near
08N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N58W. Scattered
moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 24W-39W.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

A cold front extends from 26N81W to 20N90W to 19N96W. No notable
convection is occurring with the frontal passage. Scatterometer
data indicates moderate to fresh N to NE winds following the
front, along with moderate seas in N to NE swell.

For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail
over much of the basin through Tue as a cold front moves
southeastward over the Gulf and into the northwestern Caribbean.
Strong winds will be possible in the central basin through
tonight. Building seas to 8 ft are expected in the central and
southwestern basin in the wake of the cold front through Tue
morning. Elsewhere, fresh E winds will occur in the Florida
Straits into the southeastern Gulf tonight through midweek as high
pressure builds over the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker
winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over the Gulf by
late week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Refer to the section above for details on a tropical wave moving
from the central to the western Caribbean.

Latest ASCAT pass captured fresh to strong E winds across much of
the central Caribbean, along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh
trades and moderate seas prevail in the eastern Caribbean.
Meanwhile across the SW and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of
Honduras, moderate to fresh NE winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail.

For the forecast, fresh to strong E winds will occur over the
central Caribbean, including in the Gulf of Venezuela, through Tue
morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between low
pressure over the south-central basin, and a tropical wave moving
through the western Caribbean and ridging to the north. Rough
seas will prevail near and to the west of the strongest winds.
Elsewhere, fresh to strong NE winds will occur in the lee of Cuba
and through the Windward Passage this evening through Wed
surrounding a cold front moving through the northwestern basin.
Locally strong winds will be possible in the lee of Cuba Tue
night. Moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over
the Caribbean Wed night through the rest of the week.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends across the W Atlantic from 31N75W to 26N80W.
A pre frontal trough is analyzed from 31N71W to 25N75W. Fresh to
strong winds are noted in the vicinity of the front/trough. No
convection is noted at this time in this area. To the E, a
frontal system is analyzed as a cold front from 31N35W to 29N50W,
then becomes stationary to 31N61W. Light to gentle winds prevail
in the vicinity of these fronts, with rough seas in NW swell
mainly N of the fronts. A surface low is N of the area over the
Eastern Atlantic, with surface trough extending from the low to
25N31W. Scattered showers are noted along the trough along with
fresh winds and rough seas. Elsewhere across the Atlantic and
away from frontal boundaries, moderate to fresh trades and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front and surface trough
will progress into the central Atlantic this week, leading to
fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front,
generally north of 28N. In the wake of the front north of 29N,
expect fresh to strong N to NW winds and rough seas through late
Tue. Rough seas in N to NW swell will expand southeastward to 25N
through midweek. A new NW swell will reinforce rough seas east of
65W late this week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh NE winds are
expected over much of the waters by midweek as the front slowly
weakens.

$$
ERA