RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 230404
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0355 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of
Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N23W. The
ITCZ extends from 00N23W to 03N43W. Scattered moderate convection
is south of 06N and east of 29W.

GULF OF AMERICA...

A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports
fresh easterly winds and moderate seas off northern Yucatan.
Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas
prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin.

For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will
maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas
across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the
eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche
will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern
and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night
through mid-week.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak surface trough in the central Caribbean supports a few
showers southeast of Jamaica. A subtropical ridge centered north
of the Caribbean sustains fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of
4-7 ft across the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward
Passage, and also in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or
weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent.

For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic
will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the
Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night.
Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas
will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night,
as the high pressure moves slightly eastward.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 36N52W to
eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates strong
to near-gale force SE winds north of 25N and east of the front to
48W. North of 26N and west of the front to 60W, fresh to strong
NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are
8-13 ft north of 21N between 49W and 67W. In the rest of the SW
North Atlantic, a subtropical ridge dominates sustaining moderate
or weaker winds and moderate seas.

In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1000 mb low pressure
centered west of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NW
winds and rough to very rough seas north of 23N and east of 30W.
N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central
Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and
moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas
on either side of the front north of 27N will continue to affect
the offshore waters from west to east into early Mon as the front
moves slowly eastward. The cold front is forecast to move into the
central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating.
Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore
waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue,
followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas.
These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters
north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts northward.

$$
Delgado