RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion (corrected)

555
AXNT20 KNHC 280539 CCA
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0615 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026

Corrected header time

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0500 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues to
near 01S37W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of
Brazil near 03S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted
within 250 nm on either side of these features.

...GULF OF AMERICA...

Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming along the
coasts of NE Mexico, TX, and SW LA. Visibility may be reduced in
these areas. A relatively weak pressure gradient prevails across
the basin. With this, moderate to fresh E winds prevail west of
87W along with 3-5 ft seas, with gentle to moderate mainly E to SE
winds and 1-3 ft seas east of 88W.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient between weak high
pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the
coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to
fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of
the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate
seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed.
Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off
the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A
cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and
reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and
isolated moderate convection across the central and eastern
Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to
fresh trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf
of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the
remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W,
and moderate elsewhere.

For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area,
tightening the pressure gradient. The tighter pressure gradient
will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and
central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at
times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and
moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to
strong speeds through Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from near 31N68W westward and southwestward
to near Cape Canaveral. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N65W
to near 20N70W. Scattered moderate convection is developing along
and about 100 nm ahead of the trough. Scatterometer data confirmed
fresh N to NE winds behind the front along with seas building to
6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh SE winds are also seen in scatterometer
data N of 26N between the pre-frontal trough and 55W. Another
cold front is analyzed in the central Atlantic from 31N32W to
23N45W, with a frontal remnant trough extending from 23N45W to
near 27N62W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing near the
west end of the pre- frontal trough.

Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern
part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to
fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N, with
gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas across much of
the Atlantic away from any frontal boundaries are 4-7 ft.

For the forecast west of 55W, a frontal boundary extending from
31N68W to central Florida will reach from near 31N59W to 25N64W
and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east
of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and
moderate to rough seas are expected N of 27N in the wake of the
front tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore
northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the
northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon, moving E of
55W on Sat.

$$
Adams