RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

4/27/2025 2:46:33 PM

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

864 AXNT20 KNHC 271446 TWDAT Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Apr 27 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1440 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is primarily over land across western Africa, ending near the coast of Senegal. The ITCZ extends from 06N15W to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 02N to 05N between 10W and 18W. GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure pattern continues across the Gulf this morning, anchored by 1021 mb high pressure centered off the western Florida Panhandle near 29N86W. Weak troughs are analyzed along the west coast of the Florida peninsula, and over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds across the basin. Wave heights are 1 to 3 ft in the northeast Gulf, and 2 to 4 ft elsewhere. No shower or thunderstorm activity is noted at this time across the basin. Land-based observations over southern Mexico indicate visibility of 2 to 5 miles due to smoke from local agricultural and forest fires, and this is likely impacting the near shore waters. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf waters through at least the middle of the week supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong speeds each evening over the east and central Bay of Campeche through the forecast period due to local effects related to a thermal trough coming off the Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Straits of Florida Mon night through Wed night as high pressure located NE of Florida strengthens. By Monday night, SE winds are forecast to increase over the western Gulf and persist through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad mid to upper trough reaches from the western Atlantic, across Cuba into the northwest Caribbean. Divergent southwesterly flow aloft ahead of the trough is supporting deep-layer moisture across the central and eastern Caribbean, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms in the southwest Caribbean, north of Panama. Farther east, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is producing isolated to scattered passing showers across much of the northeast Caribbean and adjacent islands. Drier conditions are noted over the northwest Caribbean, under the influence of the northern flow aloft west of the trough. At the surface, the pattern is influenced by relatively weak 1021 mb high pressure north of the area near the northern Bahamas, and the resident low pressure off Colombia. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate easterly flow across the basin along with 2 to 4 ft seas, except moderate to fresh NE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas off Colombia. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin combined with the Colombian low will support pulsing fresh winds at night in the Windward Passage, south of Cuba, and offshore Colombia, with moderate trade winds elsewhere. By Monday evening, winds will pulse to strong in the lee of Cuba and in the Windward Passage, as high pressure north of the area strengthens. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Weak 1021 mb high pressure is analyzed over the western Atlantic north of the Bahamas near 28N76W, just west of a surface trough that extends northward from the central Dominican Republic toward Bermuda. Divergent flow aloft is assisting the development of a few thunderstorms east of the trough near 26N63W. Farther east, a frontal boundary reaches from the eastern Azores Islands to 29N50W. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas west of 65W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 65W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will drift eastward as a cold front moves south of 31N tonight, reaching from near 31N62W to northeast Florida by Mon morning, from 31N57W to the northwest Bahamas by Tue morning, and from near 31N55W to the central Bahamas Tue evening before weakening. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas will follow the front. $$ Christensen