Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyThursday, March 30, 2023
...Stalling Frontal Boundary to Maintain Elevated Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Across the Southern Peninsula...A Few Thunderstorms May Be Strong...Isolated Instances of Nuisance Flooding Possible Over Urban Southeast Florida Corridors...Mostly Sunny Skies and Near-Zero Rain Chances Expected for North and Central Florida...Elevated Wildfire Threat Across Portions of the Peninsula...Extreme Drought Has Been Introduced Over Portions of Southwest Florida, With Severe Drought Expanding Across the Peninsula...River Flood Warning Remains in Effect for Apalachicola River near Blountstown Until Further Notice...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents Continue Statewide...
Updated at 10:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Wildfire | Fog (Overnight) | Excessive Heat | Flash Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Southern Peninsula |
|
Peninsula |
Suwannee River Valley |
|
Iso. Urban Southeast Florida |
Panhandle, Northeast & East-Central FL West-Central FL Nature Coast & SW FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A stalling frontal boundary over the Florida Straits and its accompanying easterly flow will maintain and elevated chance for shower and thunderstorm activity over the southern Peninsula (20-35% chance of rain). While there is no organized risk for severe weather, a few thunderstorms may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds, lightning, and heavy downpours. Isolated pockets of nuisance flooding cannot be ruled out over the urban Southeast Florida corridors, especially for locations that experience multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the upper 70s to middle 80s across the Florida Peninsula. Rain chances will gradually subside after sunset.
Mostly sunny skies and near-zero rain chances can be expected across North and Central Florida today in the wake of the recent cold front. Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the middle to upper 70s. Easterly winds of 5-10 mph can be expected, with wind gusts reaching 15 mph at times this afternoon.
Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and the Nature Coast, the lower to middle 60s across Central and interior South Florida, and the upper 60s to middle 70s along the Southeast Florida Coast and the Florida Keys. Lingering moisture and calming winds may allow for areas of patchy to locally dense fog to develop over portions of the Suwannee River Valley tonight.
Fire Weather: In the wake of the recent cold front, northerly winds will usher in a drier airmass across North and Central Florida. Relative humidity values reaching the lower to middle 30s can be expected; however, wet soils and vegetation will keep the wildfire risk minimal over the Florida Panhandle. Elevated rain and thunderstorm chances can be expected over the far southern Peninsula. Breezy conditions will develop this evening over the Peninsula (wind gusts reaching 20-25 mph). Given recent dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and increasing drought, an elevated wildfire risk will continue for interior portions of the Peninsula. Lightning may ignite new wildfires and winds near thunderstorms may be gusty and erratic. Localized visibility reductions due to smoke from new or existing fires and burns will remain possible, even if fog is not forecast. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 64 active wildfires across the state, burning approximately 5,357 acres.
Drought: Continued dry weather has led to stress in crops and other vegetation, as well as an increased wildfire danger. An area of extreme drought has been introduced over portions of the Southwest Florida Peninsula on this week’s Drought Monitor. Severe drought has increased to encompass a large swath of the Florida Peninsula, away from the Miami area. Rainfall deficits of 2-4” have been observed over the past 30 days across nearly the entire Peninsula.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 358 (-11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are twenty-eight counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Palm Beach, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie and Sumter) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Rip Currents: Brisk post-frontal flow will yield an elevated rip current risk along many Florida beaches today. A high risk of rip currents can be expected along several Panhandle, Northeast Florida, and East-Central Florida beaches. Moderate risk conditions will reside along West-Central and Southeast Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected over the Gulf of Mexico today, with onshore winds building wave heights to 3-5’ along the East Coast.
Red Tide been observed above background levels along much of Southwest Florida Coast. Medium concentrations have been sampled along Pinellas, Manatee, and Lee Counties.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Showers and thunderstorms over the southern Peninsula can be expected to produce 0.25-0.5” of rainfall, with locally higher amounts of 1-2” possible around and south of Lake Okeechobee. Nuisance flooding and ponding of water across urban Southeast Florida areas cannot be ruled out, especially for locations that experience multiple rounds of rain and thunderstorm activity.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning for the Apalachicola River near Blountstown remains in effect this evening until further notice. Minor flooding is forecast, courtesy of recent heavy rainfall. Additional rivers across North Florida are forecast to reach Action Stage (bank-full) in response to the recent heavy rainfall. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.60 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.28 feet above normal for this time of year.