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Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Sunday, October 1, 2023

...Widespread Showers and Thunderstorms Expected This Morning and Throughout the Day Across the Peninsula...Flood Watch Has Been Issued Along Eastern Peninsula Ahead of Anticipated Rainfall Today...Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding Along Portions of Space and Treasure Coasts; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) Throughout the Peninsula...Breezy Northeasterly Winds Continue Across North and Central Florida; Wind Gusts Upwards of 20-25 MPH...Astronimical Tides (King Tides) and Onshore Winds To Continue Risk for Minor to Moderate Coastal Flooding Along East Coast Beaches During High Tide; Coastal Flood Warning For Portions of Northeast Florida...Minor River Flooding for St. Johns at Astor, Peace River at Arcadia and Fisheasting Creek Expected or Ongoing;St. Johns Could Rise Into Moderate Flood Stage...High Risk For Rip Currents For Numerous Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...Tropical Storm Philippe Moving Westward With Little Change In Strength Forecast During the Next Day; No Direct Threat to Florida...Tropical Storm Rina Expected to Turn Northward Tonight and Become a Remnant Low; No Direct Threat to Florida...

Updated at 10:30 AM EDT

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind Hail  Excessive Heat Coastal Flooding Flash Flooding Rip Currents

East Peninsula & South Florida



East-Central & South Florida

Iso. Peninsula


West-Central & South Florida

Northeast Florida

East Coast 

Eastern Peninsula & Space Coast

East-Central & South Florida

Panhandle & East Coast

Southeast Florida

West Coast


Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

Panhandle: A large area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley continues to build, keeping conditions mostly dry across the Panhandle and Big Bend (5-15% chance of rain). Partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies can be expected throughout the day as northeasterly winds help to bring drier air southward. Breezy northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph can be expected to develop by the afternoon hours, with wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times. Isolated showers may move onshore along portions of the Northeast Florida coastline later this evening and overnight, but should any activity develop, it will be short-lived and light in nature (15-35% chance of rain). High temperatures this afternoon will reach the 80s across the regions. Mostly clear skies overnight will allow for low temperatures in the low to middle 60s.

Peninsula: Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed this morning along the Florida East Coast. The unsettled weather pattern across the Peninsula can be expected to continue today. A lingering frontal boundary remains stationary along the southeastern Peninsula, which will help to bring scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the Peninsula throughout the day (60-90% chance of rain). Tropical moisture will allow for showers and thunderstorms to produce heavy and torrential downpours this morning and continuing through the afternoon and evening. A Flood Watch has been issued along the eastern Peninsula ahead of additional rainfall expected today over saturated grounds and soils from the last several days. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along Space and Treasure Coasts, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extending from the I-4 corridor and through the Peninsula. While there is no organized risk for severe weather, an isolated strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out during the afternoon and evening hours. Stronger thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and torrential downpours. Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph will continue, especially along the immediate coastline. Wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph will be possible at times. Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the evening hours as they slowly dissipate. Isolated to scattered showers will likely continue through the overnight and early morning hours along portions of Treasure Coast (50-75% chance of rain). Increased cloud cover and onshore winds will keep East-Central Florida slightly cooler with high temperatures in the low to middle 80s. Elsewhere across the Peninsula, high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s can be expected. Warm and humid conditions will continue across West-Central and South Florida as heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s can be expected by the early-to-middle afternoon. Overnight low temperatures will reach the upper 60s and low 70s across Central Florida, and middle to upper 70s across South Florida. The Florida Keys will see mild overnight low temperatures near 80-degrees.


Tropical Storm Philippe: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 210 miles east of Guadeloupe and about 250 miles east-southeast of Barbuda, and moving westward at 7 mph. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue today and into tonight, followed by a northwest turn with an increase in forward speed Monday and northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some slight strengthening is possible late Monday as the system begins to move north of the Leeward Islands. Philippe poses no direct threat to Florida.

Tropical Storm Rina: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Rina was located about 735 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and moving northwestward at 14 mph. A turn toward the north and then north-northeast is expected tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weaking is forecast during the next day or so, and Rina is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate by early Tuesday. Rina poses no direct to Florida.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.


Rip Currents: Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with isolated moderate risk for rip currents along Southeast Florida beaches. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: A strong area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to bring easterly to northeasterly winds and elevated wave heights. An ocean swell along the southeastern U.S. coastline will bring wave heights of 5-7’ from northeast beaches through Treasure Coast, with breaking waves within the surf zone near 8’. Further south along the east coast, wave heights of 2-4’ can be expected. Panhandle and Big Bend beaches can expect wave heights of 3-5’ with breaking waves offshore near 6’. Southwest Florida beaches can expect wave heights near 1-2’. Shower and thunderstorm activity developing across South Florida could bring locally choppy surf and rough beach conditions. Red Tide has not been observed along any Florida coastline.

Coastal Flooding: Persistent and breezy onshore flow along with elevated tides and wave heights will continue to create minor to moderate coastal flooding along numerous areas along the Florida East Coast during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued along portions of the Northeast Florida coastline through the early part of this week as elevated tides and persistent onshore flow will lead to instances of minor to moderate coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories extend along the east coastline where several days of onshore flow and elevated tides will create instances of coastal flooding along a vulnerable coastline. Coastal Flood Statements remain in place along the Florida Keys. Coastal flooding may be exacerbated by runoff from rainfall over the last several days and continuing through the weekend. Runoff from rainfall may further contribute to beach erosion and coastal impacts.


Fire Weather: Tropical moisture continues to hold its place across the Peninsula, keeping relative humidity values well above critical thresholds. Northeasterly winds will continue to keep conditions dry along the Panhandle and Big Bend, but relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. Breezy northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph can be expected across the northeast and central Peninsula, with wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph at times. Sensitive wildfire conditions can be anticipated along the far western Panhandle where severe drought has been introduced and dry conditions persist. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Drought: Despite scattered rainfall across the state this week, drought conditions persist in the Florida Panhandle and Western Peninsula. Moderate drought conditions persist along the far western Florida Panhandle and along the I-10 corridor into the western Big Bend due to below normal streamflow and soil moisture. Severe to extreme drought has been maintained from Pinellas county to Charlotte county as year-to-date rainfall deficits continue to increase (12-16” below normal; locally up to 20” below normal). Abnormally Dry conditions have also returned along Northeast Florida. Additional rainfall expected through the weekend and early next week may help to alleviate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 184 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are five Florida counties (Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walkton) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).


Flash Flooding: A Flood Watch is in effect along Space and Treasure Coast as heavy rainfall over the last few days has created saturated grounds and soils and additional rainfall is expected through the early part of this week. A stalled from boundary will be capable of producing heavy and intense downpours within shower and thunderstorm activity today as tropical moisture remains in place. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along portions of East-Central and Southeast Florida as numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, producing torrential downpours over saturated grounds and soils. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extends along the I-4 corridor and southward across the Peninsula. With saturated grounds from several days of rainfall, any additional rainfall today will likely create localized flooding concerns across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals of 2-4” can be expected for portions of the East Coast, with locally higher totals upwards of 5-8”. Additionally, any slow-moving or training showers and thunderstorms will be capable of creating localized flooding over areas.

Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings are in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor, Peace River at Arcadia and Fisheating Creek near Palmdale as water levels are within or forecast to reach minor flood stage. Persistent northeasterly winds, astronomical high tides and heavy rainfall have led to water levels along the St. Johns to rise into minor flood stage. The river is could see water levels rise into moderate flood stage with additional heavy rainfall today over the area and tidal portions of the river remain backed up. Additional rainfall across the Peninsula could bring locally heavier rainfall, leading to water level rises locally for the Peace River and Fisheating Creek. All other Florida rivers, creeks and tributaries are below flood stage. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.68 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.82 feet above normal for this time of year.