Current Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Philippe: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Philippe was located about 210 miles east of Guadeloupe and about 250 miles east-southeast of Barbuda, and moving westward at 7 mph. A west-northwestward motion is expected to continue today and into tonight, followed by a northwest turn with an increase in forward speed Monday and northward motion on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Philippe is forecast to pass near or just northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands on Monday and Monday night. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph and little change in strength is expected during the next day or so. Some slight strengthening is possible late Monday as the system begins to move north of the Leeward Islands. Philippe poses no direct threat to Florida.

Tropical Storm Rina: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Rina was located about 735 miles northeast of the Northern Leeward Islands and moving northwestward at 14 mph. A turn toward the north and then north-northeast is expected tonight and Monday. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weaking is forecast during the next day or so, and Rina is expected to become a remnant low later today or tonight and dissipate by early Tuesday. Rina poses no direct to Florida.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Breezy easterly to northeasterly winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with isolated moderate risk for rip currents along Southeast Florida beaches. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: A strong area of high pressure over the Ohio Valley will continue to bring easterly to northeasterly winds and elevated wave heights. An ocean swell along the southeastern U.S. coastline will bring wave heights of 5-7’ from northeast beaches through Treasure Coast, with breaking waves within the surf zone near 8’. Further south along the east coast, wave heights of 2-4’ can be expected. Panhandle and Big Bend beaches can expect wave heights of 3-5’ with breaking waves offshore near 6’. Southwest Florida beaches can expect wave heights near 1-2’. Shower and thunderstorm activity developing across South Florida could bring locally choppy surf and rough beach conditions. Red Tide has not been observed along any Florida coastline.

Coastal Flooding: Persistent and breezy onshore flow along with elevated tides and wave heights will continue to create minor to moderate coastal flooding along numerous areas along the Florida East Coast during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Warning has been issued along portions of the Northeast Florida coastline through the early part of this week as elevated tides and persistent onshore flow will lead to instances of minor to moderate coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Advisories extend along the east coastline where several days of onshore flow and elevated tides will create instances of coastal flooding along a vulnerable coastline. Coastal Flood Statements remain in place along the Florida Keys. Coastal flooding may be exacerbated by runoff from rainfall over the last several days and continuing through the weekend. Runoff from rainfall may further contribute to beach erosion and coastal impacts.

Fire Weather: Tropical moisture continues to hold its place across the Peninsula, keeping relative humidity values well above critical thresholds. Northeasterly winds will continue to keep conditions dry along the Panhandle and Big Bend, but relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds. Breezy northeasterly winds near 10-15 mph can be expected across the northeast and central Peninsula, with wind gusts upwards of 20-30 mph at times. Sensitive wildfire conditions can be anticipated along the far western Panhandle where severe drought has been introduced and dry conditions persist. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds.

Drought: Despite scattered rainfall across the state this week, drought conditions persist in the Florida Panhandle and Western Peninsula. Moderate drought conditions persist along the far western Florida Panhandle and along the I-10 corridor into the western Big Bend due to below normal streamflow and soil moisture. Severe to extreme drought has been maintained from Pinellas county to Charlotte county as year-to-date rainfall deficits continue to increase (12-16” below normal; locally up to 20” below normal). Abnormally Dry conditions have also returned along Northeast Florida. Additional rainfall expected through the weekend and early next week may help to alleviate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 184 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are five Florida counties (Escambia, Holmes, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa and Walkton) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

Flash Flooding: A Flood Watch is in effect along Space and Treasure Coast as heavy rainfall over the last few days has created saturated grounds and soils and additional rainfall is expected through the early part of this week. A stalled from boundary will be capable of producing heavy and intense downpours within shower and thunderstorm activity today as tropical moisture remains in place. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along portions of East-Central and Southeast Florida as numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through today, producing torrential downpours over saturated grounds and soils. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) extends along the I-4 corridor and southward across the Peninsula. With saturated grounds from several days of rainfall, any additional rainfall today will likely create localized flooding concerns across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals of 2-4” can be expected for portions of the East Coast, with locally higher totals upwards of 5-8”. Additionally, any slow-moving or training showers and thunderstorms will be capable of creating localized flooding over areas.

Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings are in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor, Peace River at Arcadia and Fisheating Creek near Palmdale as water levels are within or forecast to reach minor flood stage. Persistent northeasterly winds, astronomical high tides and heavy rainfall have led to water levels along the St. Johns to rise into minor flood stage. The river is could see water levels rise into moderate flood stage with additional heavy rainfall today over the area and tidal portions of the river remain backed up. Additional rainfall across the Peninsula could bring locally heavier rainfall, leading to water level rises locally for the Peace River and Fisheating Creek. All other Florida rivers, creeks and tributaries are below flood stage. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.68 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.82 feet above normal for this time of year.