Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, June 10, 2025
...Scattered Showers Beginning to Develop Along Nature and West Coast...Line of Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Over Big Bend Beginning to Dissipate...Return to More Typical Summertime Sea Breeze Thunderstorm Pattern Across the State...Embedded Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Anticipated; Likely Along Portions of Panhandle and Atlantic Coast...Possible Flash Flooding Within Heavy Downpours Across Panhandle and Big Bend; Earlier Onset of Ponding of Water Possible With Recent Heavy Rainfall...Warm and Muggy Conditions Statewide...Mostly Dry Conditions to Return Overnight As Activity Dissipates...High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle; Moderate Risk for Atlantic Coast Beaches...Minor Riverine Flooding Returns Along Western Panhandle...No Tropical Cyclone Development Expected Over Next 7 Days...
Updated at 9:21 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Iso. Panhandle |
W. Panhandle & Atlantic Coast Iso. Statewide |
Locally Panhandle & Big Bend Iso. Statewide |
Locally Northeast & East-Central FL Statewide |
Florida Panhandle Atlantic Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A line of showers and thunderstorms that moved across the Panhandle and Big Bend overnight and this morning, continues to break apart and dissipate. Additional showers and thunderstorms have begun to develop along the Nature and West Coast of Florida.
Upper-level support from an approaching frontal boundary and plenty of tropical moisture will lead to scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Sunshine State throughout the day (45-75% chance of rain). The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along portions of the Panhandle, as well as along portions of the Atlantic Coast, as sea breeze thunderstorms may become severe in nature during the peak heating hours of the day bringing damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph) and large hail (quarter-size). While organized severe weather is not anticipated throughout the rest of the state, locally embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible with the help of daytime heating. These stronger thunderstorms will be capable of bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend have already seen multiple rounds of locally heavy rainfall and flash flooding over the last couple of days, and additional rainfall could exacerbate or lead to an earlier onset of flash flooding or ponding of water today. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle and Big Bend for additional instances of possible flash flooding or ponding of water across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
Warm and muggy conditions can be expected around the state through the afternoon hours as high temperatures reach the lower to middle 90s and heat index values reaching the middle 90s to triple digits (100-105-degrees). These heat index values continue to remain just below heat advisory criteria; however, heat safety should continue to be practiced.
Shower and thunderstorm activity should continue throughout the evening hours before moving with the sea breeze back towards the coastlines and adjacent coastal waters. A few showers and embedded thunderstorms may linger overnight near the coastal waters, but overall, mostly dry conditions can be anticipated (20-35% chance of rain). Instances of locally patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Wednesday morning following rainfall from earlier in the day and calm conditions returning overnight.
Low temperatures will continue to fall into the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
Tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic basin. For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents can be expected along all Panhandle beaches due to onshore winds and elevated surf. A moderate risk expands along all Atlantic Coast beaches. West Coast beaches can expect to see a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected throughout the state.
Red Tide has not been observed along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/6).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather:Tropical moisture in place will continue to fuel daily shower and thunderstorm development along the sea breeze boundaries across the state. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Locally heavy rainfall may continue aid in helping drought conditions throughout the state as well. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 35 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 347 acres.
Drought: Improvement by 1-category was observed across portions of the Sunshine State, courtesy of an active weather pattern during the end of May and beginning of June. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains for portions of Southwest Florida and the Everglades; however, additional rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity will work at relieving long-term rainfall deficits. Rainfall totals over the past 14 days trended drier and 1-2 inches below normal for this time of year along portions of North Florida, including the Suwannee and Santa Fe River basins where low streamflows continue being reported; a slight expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) was noted on the updated Drought Monitor (6/5/2025). Above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall is outlooked for the next week as the typical Florida summertime pattern fuels daily shower and thunderstorm activity.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 375 (-3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 4 Florida county (Dixie, Levy Miami-Dade and Monroe) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms will bring locally heavy rainfall to areas that have already seen widespread rainfall recently, leading to an increased risk for flash flooding across the Panhandle and Big Bend. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today as tropical moisture continues to aid shower and thunderstorm development. Areas may already be sensitive with additional locally heavy rainfall that occurs today, and an earlier onset of localized flash flooding is possible for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected throughout the state, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Following recent heavy rainfall from repeated rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity, a handful of Panhandle rivers and creeks have seen water levels rise near or into flood stage. A River Flood Warning has been issued for the Big Coldwater Creek near Milton as water levels are forecast to rise into minor flood stage over the next day or two before quickly falling below flood stage by the end of the week. The Escambia River near Century is currently within Action Stage (bank-full), but could rise near minor flood stage later this week depending on additional rainfall. The Shoal River near Crestview is currently within Action Stage (bank-full), but is forecast to fall below that stage within the next couple of days. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.99 feet below normal for this time of year.
