Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, July 9, 2025
...Typical Summertime Thunderstorm Pattern Across the State...Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening...Stronger Thunderstorms Possible - Lightning, Gusty Winds, Heavy Downpours, Small Hail...Ponding of Water Possible With Heavy Downpours...Hot and Humid Conditions; Triple Digit Heat Index Values Nearly Statewide...Approaching Heat Advisory Criteria Possibly...Lingering Showers and Thunderstorms Over Coastal Waters Overnight...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for Numerous North Florida and Space Coast Beaches...No Tropical Cyclone Activity Expected Over Next 7 Days...
Updated at 9:28 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Statewide |
Northern Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida | Statewide | Iso. Suwannee River Valley & Northeast Florida |
North Florida & Space Coast Peninsula |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A rinse and repeat of Tuesday can be expected across the Sunshine State as the typical summertime thunderstorm pattern will set up throughout the day. Already this morning there are scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms along the Big Bend coastline, and these will continue to gradually move inland throughout the morning hours as the sea breeze develops. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the state this afternoon and evening as the sea breezes move inland and collide with one another (40-70% chance of rain). Like the last couple of days, the Gulf sea breeze will dominate allowing for showers and thunderstorms to move from west to east. Locally embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), instances of small hail and heavy downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the northern Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida where greater coverage of showers and thunderstorms and upper-level support could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
Hot and humid conditions can be expected throughout the state. High temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Heat index values will reach the upper 90s and triple digits (100-106-degrees) throughout the state. Several areas across the state could see heat index values approach Heat Advisory criteria, and a brief one cannot be ruled out later today.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before shifting offshore and dissipating overnight. Mostly dry conditions will return overnight throughout the state, but some lingering showers and embedded rumbles of thunder may be possible over the adjacent coastal waters (20-40% chance of rain). Instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning as well.
Low temperatures will fall into the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along numerous North Florida and Space Coast beaches. A low risk can be expected for Florida Peninsula beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along statewide beaches, with possible breaking waves upwards of 3' along portions of the Space Coast.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/27).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Abundant moisture will help scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the state throughout the daytime hours. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds, courtesy of a very moist tropical airmass. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent and erratic winds, which could spread new or ongoing wildfires over areas that have missed out on the recent heavier rainfall; however, saturated soils/vegetation will largely limit the wildfire threat statewide. Instances of locally patchy fog possible be possible early in the morning. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 16 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4387 acres.
Drought: The active and unsettled weather pattern across Florida continued through the week; however, it is important to note that rainfall that has occurred since Tuesday (7/1) is not included in this Drought Monitor update (7/3). Some improvements were noted to ongoing drought and abnormal dryness occurred across the Florida Peninsula, though areas of severe drought (level 2 of 4) and extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persisted in some localized pockets where significant long-term deficits in rainfall and streamflow consisted. Widespread heavy rain and thunderstorm activity this week will work to reduce and improve drought conditions statewide on the subsequent Drought Monitor.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 164 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). Zero Florida counties have an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the northern Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida today where the convergence of showers and thunderstorms could lead to heavy and intense downpours that produce localized instances of flash flooding and ponding of water. Any slow-moving or training thunderstorms could also produce repeated rounds of heavy downpours that lead to possible flash flooding. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Multiple rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely result in water level rises along West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, streams, and waterways. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park could rise near or into Action Stage (bank-full). For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.47 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.09 feet below normal for this time of year.
