Current Weather Outlook

Hurricane Imelda: Imelda is located about 230 miles east of Bermuda and is moving east northeastward at 30 mph. This general motion is expected to continue through tonight before a turn to the northeastward motion is then forecast on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, Imelda will continue moving farther away from Bermuda this morning. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph with higher gusts. Imelda is expected to become an extratropical low later today, with gradual weakening forecast for the next several days. Imelda will continue to bring indirect threats of high surf and dangerous rip currents for the East Coast.

Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa over the next day or two. Thereafter, this wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance in the eastern tropical Atlantic, and some slow development of the combined feature is possible as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph.

Southwestern Atlantic: An area of low pressure may form along a remnant frontal boundary near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida over the next couple of days.  Any additional development is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of America. Although tropical development is unlikely at this time, additional heavy rainfall will be possible this weekend across Florida.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Distant Hurricane Imelda will continue to bring a high risk for rip currents along all Florida East Coast beaches due to dangerous elevated ocean swells and breezy onshore winds. Panhandle beaches can expect to see a moderate to high risk for rip currents as breezy northeasterly winds bring a building ocean swell. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk to continue. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Dangerous ocean swells will persist for much of the East Coast throughout the day in the wake of distant tropical systems Humberto and Imelda. Wave heights of 5-9’ can be expected throughout the day extended from the First Coast though the Treasure Coast, and High Surf Advisories remain in effect. Southeast Florida beaches will see wave heights closer to 4-7’ throughout the day. Another building ocean swell due to breezy winds in the Northeast Gulf of America will bring wave heights of 3-5’ for most Panhandle beaches today. West Coast beaches can expect wave heights near 1-2’.

Red Tide was observed at very low concentrations in Gulf County in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations in Lee County in Southwest Florida and Nassau and Duval Counties along the East Coast (9/26).

Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories have been posted along the tidal St. Johns River and along the Northeast Florida coastline as elevated tides, persistent onshore winds and pounding surf will allow for minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide. Water levels are forecast to rise 1-1.5’ above normally dry ground through the next several days, with locally higher water levels upwards of 2’ above normally dry ground possible. A Coastal Flood Watch is in effect for the tidal St. Johns River and coastal Northeast Florida from this evening through Sunday evening for possible significant coastal flooding that could reach moderate flood stage in some locations. Beach and coastal erosion will be possible with several days of pounding wave action, especially along vulnerable beaches.

Fire Weather: Persistent onshore winds across much of the central and southern Peninsula will continue to usher in ample tropical moisture off the Atlantic. Relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will keep the wildfire threat very low across the Peninsula today. However, drier conditions are expected across the Panhandle and North Florida where breezy winds are expected. Much of the I-95 corridor and coastal Northeast Florida will see wind gusts upwards of 30-35 mph, which could result in spreading of any active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 13 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 35 acres.  

Drought: Outside of Southeast Florida and other localized areas along the East Coast, many locations across the Sunshine State remain below average in the rainfall department in the last month. On the most recent drought outlook, a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) remains across coastal Martin and St. Lucie counties being on the northern periphery of the heaviest rainfall seen across Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties in September. Across Southwest Florida, abnormally dry (emerging drought) was added to coastal Monroe, Collier, Lee, Charlotte, and Sarasota counties where monthly rainfall departures have neared 3 to 5 inches in many locations. Similarly, across the Nature Coast, abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions were added due to mostly dry conditions in the past couple of weeks. The drought conditions across the Panhandle have worsened since the last outlook as well. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was expanded into Madison and Hamilton counties across the northern tier Panhandle counties, while remaining in place across northern Jefferson, Leon, Gadsden, Jackson, and Holmes counties. Monthly rainfall has remained below 1 inch in many locations across the Panhandle! As such, nearly widespread Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) is outlooked across the Panhandle and eastward into the Suwannee Valley. Additional heavy rainfall is expected to spread across the state this weekend, which could stop the worsening drought. However, given the lengthy dry period experienced, it may take a longer rainy period to eliminate the developing drought.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 354(+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 17 Florida counties in the Florida Panhandle (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Gadsden, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Union, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding outlooked across coastal Southeast Florida today. Ample tropical moisture will continue to stream onshore off the Atlantic and promote locally heavy rainfall and flooding within the numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon. Localized flash flooding and ponding of water will be possible, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations. The heaviest rainfall totals are likely to remain confined to the East Coast today, with many locations seeing 1-2” of rainfall. However, localized areas may see upwards of 3-5” if they receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have risen back into minor flood stage due to recent coastal action (waves, tides and onshore winds). There are no other riverine concerns at this time statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.53 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.36 feet below normal for this time of year.