Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Friday, October 15, 2021

...Sunny & Dry Weather Continues in North Florida...Slight Chance of Isolated Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Can Be Expected Across South Florida...Rain Chances Will Gradually Increase Across Western Panhandle Overnight Ahead of Approaching Cold Front...High Risk of Rip Currents Continue Along East Coast and Franklin County Beaches...No Tropical Threats to Florida This Week...Cold Front to Usher in Cooler Temperatures Across North Florida This Weekend...

Updated at 9:34 AM EDT

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind/Hail Fog Flooding Excessive Heat Wildfire Rip Currents

South Florida






Panhandle & East-Central FL

Northeast Coast



Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:   

Weekend cold front is expected to usher in cooler temperatures across North Florida. High temperatures look to remain in the lower to middle 70s, with overnight temperatures in the lower to middle 50s into early next week!

A similar weather pattern can be expected today as the dominant high pressure system holds influence. Mostly sunny skies and dry conditions will persist across the state, with a slight chance of rain (20-30%) residing across extreme South Florida. Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop along the Southeast Coast through the peak heating hours of the afternoon. While severe storms are not anticipated, occasional lightning and locally heavy rainfall will accompany the strongest activity. This evening, we turn our attention to an approaching cold front that is anticipated to reach Northwest Florida Saturday morning. Rain chances will gradually increase across the western Panhandle through the overnight hours.

The lack of forecast rainfall will allow for afternoon temperatures to reach the upper 80s to lower 90s statewide. Overnight, temperatures in the middle to upper 60s can be expected across North Florida and interior Central Florida, the lower 70s along the coastlines and Central Florida, and the middle 70s across South Florida.  



Flash Flooding: There is no threat of flash flooding today. Localized totals around 0.5-1” are possible in South Florida and the Keys and may result in brief ponding of water on roadways.

Hydrology: A River Flood Warning remains in effect along the St. Johns River at Astor until further notice. Minor flooding is ongoing and will continue. Several other rivers across the state are in action stage/bank-full, but are gradually falling due to the lack of forecast rainfall. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.86 feet, which is within the operational band but 0.82 feet above normal for this time of year.


Central Atlantic Wave: An elongated area of low pressure located more than 500 miles southeast of Bermuda is beginning to merge with a larger upper-level disturbance. The system’s shower and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent additional development as it accelerates to the east-northeast over the next several days. The NHC is outlooking a near 0% chance of development through the next 5 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.  

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at


Rip Currents: Breeze onshore winds will result in a high risk of rip currents along southeasterly-facing beaches in the Panhandle and East-Central Florida beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected along remaining Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches. Wave heights will be 3-4’ in the Atlantic and 1-2’ in the Gulf. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit


Marine Hazards: A large bloom of Red Tide continues along the Florida Gulf Coast. High concentrations have returned along the west coast from Pinellas to Charlotte Counties. Low to moderate concentrations have been observed in the Panhandle from Bay to Franklin County and in Dixie, Levy, and Pasco County. Respiratory irritation and fish kills continue to be reported throughout these areas.