Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, November 16, 2025
...Dense Fog Conditions Across Portions of the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley...Another Dry and Mostly Sunny Day...Breezy Winds Increasing Across North and Central Florida...Sensitive Wildfire Conditons Persist for North Florida Given Ongoing Drought...Clear and Calm Conditions Tonight...Another Round of Fog Possible Overnight and Early Monday Morning Throughout North Florida and the West Coast...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast; High Risk for Panhandle..
Updated at 8:58 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally North & West Florida |
North & West Florida East Florida |
Panhandle East Coast West Coast & Southeast Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of Dense Fog have developed early this morning throughout portions of the Big Bend and Northeast Florida but should gradually lift and dissipate as the sun rises this morning. Another dry and sunny day can be expected for the Sunshine State as high pressure remains in place along the southeastern U.S. A weak frontal boundary will approach from the north and northeast later this afternoon and evening allowing for winds to become increasingly breezy. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph will develop throughout northern and central Florida, with locally higher gusts upwards of 25 mph. Slightly elevated winds, ongoing drought and dry conditions will continue to create sensitive wildfire conditions throughout North Florida this afternoon.
High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the state this afternoon.
Clear and calm conditions can be expected to continue into the overnight hours. Increasing moisture ahead of the frontal boundary approaching from the north will help to create another round of patchy fog late overnight and into early Monday morning throughout much of North Florida and along the West Coast. Dense Fog Advisories may be needed early Monday morning.
Low temperatures will fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s throughout the state overnight.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches today as onshore winds develop from the sea breeze this afternoon. A low risk can be expected for all West Coast and Northeast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calm marine conditions are expected statewide with surf around 1’ for all West Coast and Panhandle beaches, and near 1-2’ for East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to low concentrations in Bay County, very low concentrations in Gulf County, and background to very low concentrations in Franklin County across Northwest Florida. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast(11/14).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Another warm and dry day is on tap for Florida as high pressure remains centered over the Southeast U.S. Winds will remain light today for much of the state, with gusts keeping gusts near 15-20 mph across portions of northern and central Florida later this afternoon. Relative humidity values will recover and remain above critical thresholds, however ongoing drought and dry conditions may lead to sensitive wildfire conditions for North Florida and along the West Coast. Patchy fog development overnight can also reduce visibilities where any wildfires are ongoing and active. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 358 acres.
Drought: A frontal passage from this past Sunday (11/9) was the only rainfall of significance across much of the Sunshine State with rainfall totals remaining generally below 1 inch and spotty in nature. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor outlook. Across South Florida, some expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions further into Hendry and Glades counties was introduced where 30-day rainfall deficits continue to grow. Similarly, across the Tampa Bay metropolitan region, rainfall departures from the past 60 days (longer term) have grown to 4-6 inches across the area. Some expansion of Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced to western Pasco and Hernando counties, as well as Hardee and DeSoto, while remaining across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) Drought remain in place where a significant long-term drought has begun to take shape. In the past 60 days, rainfall deficits have neared 7 inches in some locations along the I-10 corridor. Streamflows in many streams, creeks, and rivers have dropped below their low thresholds. Some slight expansion southward of the drought categories across North Florida was seen in this week’s outlook. Rainfall is not anticipated for the next week, at least, across North Florida or the entire state which will continue to expand the current drought conditions. For the I-95 corridor and East Coast, soils remain saturated from heavy rainfall in October keeping any drought in check.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 468 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 39 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor has finally returned to nominal background levels, though water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns, including Lake Harney and Sanford, remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning. There are no other riverine concerns statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.79 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.17 feet below normal for this time of year.
