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Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
 

Tuesday, November 29, 2022

...Increased Moisture Along Panhandle Will Create Muggy Conditions Throughout the Day...Moisture Ahead of Approaching Frontal System Will Set Up Chance for Strong to Severe Thunderstorms for Western Panhandle In Afternoon and Evening Hours...Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) For Severe Weather Along Far Western Panhandle; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather Along Western Panhandle...Gusty Winds, Damaging Hail, and Isolated Tornadoes Possible...Maringal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Along Western Panhandle as 1-2" of Rain Forecast; Higher Amounts Possible Locally...High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and Palm Beach County; Moderate Risk Continues for Several East Coast Beaches...St. Johns Remains Expected to Remain Within Minor to Moderate Flood Stage For Several Days; Lake Harney Below Flood Stage..Tropical Develpment is Not Expected Over the Next 5 Days...

Updated at 10:24 AM EST 

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind Wildfire  Fog Freeze River Flooding Rip Currents

Western Panhandle

Southeast

Western Panhandle Western Panhandle  

Panhandle & North Florida

 

 Central &  Northeast Florida

Panhandle & Palm Beach County 

 East Coast

Northeast & West Coast

 

Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

Panhandle: Patchy to locally dense fog developed across several counties across North Florida and the Big Bend due to ample moisture from a warm front draped over the western Gulf of Mexico. Dense fog has reduced visibility to ½ of a mile or less at times, creating hazardous driving conditions through the mid-morning hours. As the fog continues to lift, moisture will continue to provide muggy conditions across the Panhandle and provide fuel for approaching showers and strong to severe thunderstorms ahead of the next frontal system this afternoon and evening. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather for the far western Panhandle and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather east of Destin. Gusty winds, damaging hail, and isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out this evening as strong thunderstorms are forecast to develop later this evening. Heavy rainfall can be expected at times and produce 1-2” for the western Panhandle counties, with higher totals possible locally. As a result, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding. For the rest of the Panhandle, partly cloudy skies can be expected throughout the day before increased cloud cover rolls in overnight ahead of storms moving eastward. Temperatures will climb into the mid to upper 70s, but overnight muggy conditions will keep temperatures in the mid to upper 60s.

Peninsula: High pressure along the U.S. east coast will keep the Peninsula mostly sunny and dry throughout the day. Light winds along the east coast will keep conditions breezy through the afternoon. As the next frontal system approaches and moisture begins to increase, cloud cover will slowly begin to increase through the overnight hours. Spotty showers and an isolated thunderstorm or two along the southeast coastline cannot be ruled out in the late afternoon and evening. Overall, temperatures will rise into the upper 70s and low 80s.

 

Tropical cyclone development is not expected over the next 5 days.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

 

Fire Weather: Increased moisture and muggy conditions across North Florida will help keep the wildfire threat low. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 11 active wildfires across the state, burning an approximate 211 acres.

Drought: Largely rain-free conditions across the Panhandle has allowed for moderate to severe drought to persist on this week’s updated Drought Monitor. Rainfall deficits over the past 30 days are now reaching 2-4” over the western portions of the region, with rainfall totals of 1-2” below normal stretching to the Big Bend.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 247 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger). Additional localized areas along the I-10 corridor in the Panhandle have KBDI values over 500.

 

Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents returns to the Panhandle and Palm Beach coastline. Several beaches along the east coast still maintain a moderate risk for rip currents. West coast beaches can expect a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected along several west and east coast beaches. A warm front south of the Panhandle will increase waves along the western beaches to 4-5’. As a stationary frontal boundary remains draped near the Florida Keys, waves will increase to 4-5’. Red Tide has been observed at medium to high concentration along Manatee, Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee, and Collier Counites. Red Tide, above background levels, were sampled along coastal Bay County.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today as tides are returning to normal along the southeast coastline.

 

Flash Flooding: A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been issued for the far western Panhandle counties as rainfall totals are forecast to reach 1-2” ahead of an approaching frontal system. Higher amounts are possible locally.

Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Deland, Sanford and Astor where minor to moderate flooding is ongoing. Elevated river levels are expected to last into next week. Lake Harney has fallen into Action Stage (bank-full) and water levels are expected to continue to slowly decline. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 16.50 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.64 feet above normal for this time of year.