Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Friday, September 19, 2018

...Stubborn Summer-like Pattern Sticks Around...Scattered Thunderstorms Expected Statewide...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for Most Panhandle and Atlantic Beaches...Watching Areas of Interest But No Named Systems Currently in Atlantic...

Updated 8:37 A.M. EDT

As we approach the autumnal equinox Saturday night, we remain entrenched in a stubborn summertime pattern. Our weather will remain very July-like with scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms. The best rain chances will be across South Florida and the Western Panhandle where rain chances are around 50%.

A few thunderstorms could become strong to briefly severe this afternoon. Gusty winds, frequent cloud-to-ground lightning, and locally heavy downpours are possible.

Though it will be slightly less hot today, temperatures remain unseasonably hot for late September. Highs will be in the lower 90s for much of the state with a few pockets of middle 90s in interior locations. Heat index values will also not be as oppressive—reaching 96 to 102 this afternoon.

Thunderstorms will dissipate after sunset. Only isolated showers are possible along the coasts near sunrise. Otherwise, lows will be in the middle to upper 70s, except the lower 80s in the Keys.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Windward Islands (Invest 97L) has become less organized since yesterday, and the chance of formation has decreased to 10% (low) over the next 5 days.

An area of low pressure just southeast of Bermuda (Invest 98L) is producing little in the way of showers and thunderstorms, but conditions are expected to become slightly more favorable over next several days as it drifts westward. The chance of formation is 0% (low) during the next 2 days and 20% (low) over the next 5 days.

A tropical wave emerging from the African West Coast (Invest 99L) is showing signs of organization, and a tropical depression could form next week as it moves quickly westward. NHC gives this system a 20% (low) chance of formation during the next 2 days and 60% (medium) over the next 5 days.

A non-tropical low pressure system is expected to develop tonight midway between Bermuda and the Azores. This system will be in a favorable environment for the development of a subtropical or tropical cyclone later this weekend or early next week. NHC gives this system a 10% (low) chance of formation during the next 2 days and a 70% (high) chance over next 5 days as it meanders of the central Atlantic.

For more information on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov.

Onshore winds will result in a moderate risk of rip currents for parts of the East Coast and Panhandle. Today, yellow flags will be flying from Martin County to Nassau County and from Walton to Franklin County. All other Florida beaches have a low risk of rip currents. Wave heights will be 2-3’ in the Atlantic and 1’ in the Gulf. Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! For the latest rip current outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Peace River at Zolfo Springs as it is expected to rise to minor flood stage Saturday night. Additionally, a handful of rivers in the Peninsula remain in action stage. Rainfall amounts today will be light enough to not cause any significant flooding concerns. For more information on specific river stages, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here.

Lake Okeechobee average elevation is 14.73 feet, which is 0.08 feet above normal for this time of year.