Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, August 17, 2025
...Technical Difficulties With Updating Contents in Summary, Tropics, Marine and Flooding Sections...
...Patchy Dense Fog this Morning Across Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida...Typical Summertime Day with Daily Afternoon Shower and Thunderstorm Activity...Localized Flash Flooding and Ponding of Water With Heavy and Repeated Downpours...Embedded Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...Drier Air Filtering into Panhandle to Keep Activity More Isolated...Warm and Muggy Conditions Statewide; Triple Digit Heat Index Values...Mostly Dry Conditions Overnight; Showers and Thunderstorms to Move Back Onshore Early Monday Morning...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...NHC Monitoring Major Hurricane Erin - No Threat to Florida, Broad Low Off the Carolina Coast (10%) - No Threat to Florida, Tropical Wave Moving from Eastern Tropical Atlantic and Toward Central (20%) - No Threat to Florida At this Time...
Updated at 9:48 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida Statwide Panhandle & Coastal Southeast FL |
Iso. Statewide
|
Iso. Statewide |
Northeast & Central FL Statewide |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure across the state yesterday will begin to move over the Gulf waters as additional tropical moisture from a cold front filters into North Florida. The added moisture across North and Central Florida will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along the afternoon sea breezes (60-75% chance of rain). Generally weak upper-level winds will result in slow-moving showers and thunderstorms capable of producing localized flash flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle, North Florida, and Central Florida south to the I-4 corridor. Many of these areas have already seen heavy rainfall this week, and any additional heavy downpours or repeated rounds of thunderstorms may lead to an earlier onset to flooding. Across South Florida and the western Panhandle, drier air will filter in keeping rainfall chances more modest (20-40% chance of rain). Any thunderstorms that develop across the state may be locally strong to severe with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
Hot and humid conditions are expected to continue today as afternoon high temperatures climb into the lower to upper 90s across the state, with heat index values reaching triple digits statewide. Dangerously hot and humid conditions will develop for much of North and Central Florida, including the Panhandle, and Heat Advisories will go into effect again today for heat index values reaching 106-112-degrees. Although Southeast Florida is likely to remain just below heat advisory criteria, a short-term advisory could be issued this afternoon if conditions warrant.
Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the evening across North Florida (35-55% chance of rain) before dissipating after midnight. Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s statewide.
Major Hurricane Erin - As of 8:00 AM EDT, Erin has been upgraded to a Category 4 Major Hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 145 mph and higher gusts. Erin is located about 120 miles northeast of Anguilla and moving west-northwestward at 20 mph. This general motion is expected to continue into the weekend with a gradual decrease in forward speed. On the forecast track, Erin is likely to move just north of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico over the weekend. Continued rapid strengthening is expected today, followed by fluctuations in intensity through the weekend. Erin poses no direct threat to Florida, however elevated surf and a high risk for rip currents can be expected across Florida East Coast beaches next week.
Northwestern Atlantic – A broad and weak low pressure is located off the coast of North Carolina producing disorganized showers. Some slight development of this system is possible over the next day or two while it meanders over the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. By Monday, conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. This system poses no threat to Florida.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 10%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along most Panhandle beaches. East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents as well. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ are expected for all Florida beaches today, though some higher waves upwards of 3’ may occur across Space Coast beaches overnight.
Red Tide was observed in one sample from Florida’s East Coast in Brevard County (valid 8/15). It was not observed in any other samples statewide.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across the state today keeping the overall wildfire threat low. Ample tropical moisture will keep the relative humidity values well above critical thresholds statewide, especially across the north and central Florida Peninsula. Some drier air will filter in across the Panhandle and Southeast Florida which will keep rainfall chances more isolated. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 16 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 334 acres.
Drought: No changes were made during this week’s drought monitor outlook as much of the regions under drought remain below average in rainfall and haven’t received significant rainfall in the past week. A Severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across Southeast Florida where monthly rainfall deficits remain 2-4” for many locations and an Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists over western Miami-Dade County. Portions of the Nature Coast remain in Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where monthly rainfall totals are likewise at a 2-4” deficit. Portions of the northern Panhandle are under an abnormally dry (emerging drought) category where hit-or-miss thunderstorms have benefited some locations, but not all. Rainfall chances will generally increase across the state this weekend and into next week as a front stalls across North Florida which may alleviate some drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 271 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked the Panhandle, North Florida, and Central Florida south to the I-4 corridor with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding. Slow-moving and repeated rounds of thunderstorms may lead to an earlier onset to flooding and ponding of water, especially across urban and poor drainage locations. Rainfall of 1-3” can be expected in any areas that receive heavy showers and thunderstorms with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” in any areas that receive repeated rounds or prolonged thunderstorms.
Riverine Flooding: The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale remains at Action Stage (bank-full) near Lake Okeechobee; however, these water levels continue to slowly decline. Rivers throughout the state remain generally in good condition, but any repeated heavier downpours could bring localized water level rises. Heavy rainfall in southern Georgia headwaters may also result in downstream riverine responses in Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.21 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.77 feet below normal for this time of year.
