Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyThursday, April 25, 2024
...Warm and Dry Conditions Persist Statewide as High Pressure Builds...Isolated Showers Possible Along the I-10 Corridor...Emerging Drought Has Expanded Across Central and South Florida...Senstive Wildfire Conditions Throughout the Peninsula this Afternoon Due to Critically Low Relative Humidity Values; Locally Elevated Conditions Cannot Be Ruled Out in Emerging Drought Areas...Clear and Calm Conditions to Give Way to Areas of Patchy Fog Overnight and Early Friday Morning Along the Panhandle and Coastal Big Bend...High Risk for Rip Currents Along Southeast Coast; Moderate Risk for All Other East Coast and Panhandle and Beaches..Minor to Moderate Riverine Flooding Continues for Several Big Bend and Suwannee Valley Rivers...
Updated at 9:04 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Hail | Fog (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Iso. I-10 Corridor |
Panhandle & Coastal Big Bend Iso. Suwannee River Valley |
Locally North & Central Peninsula |
Suwannee River Valley Big Bend |
Southeast Florida Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will continue to build along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard today and into Friday, allowing sunny to mostly sunny skies to persist (near 0-10% chance of rain). An isolated shower or two cannot be rule out along the I-10 corridor as a weak cold front stalls near the Florida-Georgia line this afternoon.
Dry air will continue to settle into the interior Northern and Central Peninsula allowing relative humidity values to fall below critical thresholds (30-45%) this afternoon and creating sensitive wildfire conditions. Locally elevated wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out along portions of interior Central Florida that have seen a lack of substantial rainfall persist across the area. Winds will remain light throughout the day, with gusts increasing to upwards of 15-20 mph mainly east of the I-95 corridor and along the coastlines as the sea breeze develops and moves in throughout the afternoon. Temperatures will continue to gradually warm up, reaching the 80s across the state with plenty of sunshine.
Clear and calm conditions will continue through the overnight hours (near 0-5% chance of rain), which will help for patchy fog to develop along the Panhandle and coastal Big Bend as moisture slowly recovers. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to middle 60s across North and Central Florida, upper 60s to low 70s across the Southern Peninsula, and middle 70s along the Keys overnight.
Rip Currents: Southeast Florida beaches can expect a high risk for rip currents due to onshore winds and a lingering ocean swell. Panhandle and East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents due to onshore winds. A low risk for rip currents continues along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: 2-4’ wave heights will persist along the Florida Atlantic Coast today with wave heights near 1’ returning elsewhere.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure building along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard will continue to allow dry air to settle in across the interior Peninsula. Relative humidity values will fall near or below critical thresholds (30-45%) along the Northern and Central Peninsula this afternoon, creating sensitive wildfire conditions. Locally elevated wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out along portions of interior Central Florida that have seen a lack of substantial rainfall persist across the area. Winds should remain light (near 5-10 mph) throughout interior areas, with wind gusts increasing to upwards of 15-20 mph along the coastlines this afternoon as the sea breeze develops and moves inland. Onshore winds along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline will allow for moisture to slowly recover over the next few days. Calm and clear conditions may allow areas of patchy fog to develop overnight and early Friday. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 39 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 838 acres.
Drought: High pressure has yielded dry conditions and above normal temperatures nearly statewide over the last week, leading to deteriorating soil moisture and streamflow conditions. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along portions of the Central and Southern Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the coast to the coast south of I-4 and north of I-75, surrounding and north of Lake Okeechobee. 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 4-6” below normal along eastern portions of Central and South Florida, east and northeast of Lake Okeechobee, with isolated pockets of 6-8” below normal. North and northwest of Lake Okeechobee to the West Coast, 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 2-4” below normal. Little to no rainfall expected across the region over the next week may exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 268 (+9) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There is one Florida county (St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk of flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings remain in effect for several rivers and waterways along the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Moderate river flooding continues for the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as water levels are forecast to crest within the next few days. The St. Marks River near Newport, Aucilla River at Lamont and Suwannee River near Suwannee Springs remain within minor flood stage and are forecast to fall below flood stage over the next day or so. Additional forecast points along the Suwannee River (at Luraville, at Branford, near Hildreth, at Rock Bluff near Bell, near Wilcox, and at Manatee Springs) continue to see minor riverine flooding as water flows downstream through the river basin. Dry conditions over the next few days will help to allow elevated water levels to crest and slowly decline. No additional riverine flooding is expected and there are no other riverine concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.50 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.74 feet above normal for this time of year.