Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyMonday, April 29, 2024
...Pleasant Conditions Continue Under High Pressure Influence...Breezy Winds Developing Along East Coast Throughout the Day...Possible Showers Developing Thorughout the Day Along East Coast and Moving Westward...Increasing Chance for Showers and Possible Thuderstorms Along Far Western Panhandle this Evening and Overnight Due to Weakening Cold Front Approaching...Patchy Fog Possible Along Panhandle Early Tuesday Morning...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast Beaches Due to Persistent Winds...Riverine Flooding Continues Along Suwannee and Santa Fe Rivers...
Updated at 9:50 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Damaging Wind | Tornado | Hail | Fog (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Rip Currents |
|
Western Panhandle (Overnight) |
Panhandle |
Locally I-75 Corridor & Interior Peninsula |
Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates Suwannee River |
Panhandle & Southeast Coast East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure over the western Atlantic waters will continue to bring pleasant conditions statewide. Breezy onshore winds will develop throughout the day, with wind gusts reaching upwards of 20-25 mph at times along the Florida East Coast with the help of the sea breeze developing this afternoon. Wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph can be expected nearly statewide as easterly to southeasterly winds persist. As these breezy winds develop, they will bring moisture from the adjacent Atlantic waters towards the eastern Peninsula allowing for very isolated showers to develop through South Florida (15-20% chance of rain). These showers will generally move from east to west throughout the day with the help of the Atlantic sea breeze, which may collide with the Gulf sea breeze later this afternoon and evening along the I-75 corridor allowing for a few additional light showers. Drier air remains settled within areas along the I-75 corridor and the interior western Peninsula, which will allow for relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon (30-35%). Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will be possible throughout the I-75 corridor and into the interior Peninsula as persistent warm and dry conditions are expected, along with little to no rainfall observed over the last several days. High temperatures statewide will climb into the 80s, with areas along the western Peninsula reaching near 90-degrees with plenty of sunshine.
Shower activity may continue into the evening and early overnight hours but will gradually dissipate over the Suwannee Valley and Nature Coast (15-20% chance of rain). A weakening cold front will push towards the western Florida Panhandle later this evening and overnight bringing isolated to scattered showers and possible thunderstorms west of the Apalachicola River (30-45% chance of rain). The strongest thunderstorm activity should remain to the west of the Florida Panhandle this evening and overnight, but any thunderstorm that develops may be capable of producing locally breezy winds and lightning. Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight and early Tuesday morning along the Panhandle ahead of any shower or thunderstorm development. Low temperatures will remain in the 60s statewide, with Southeast Florida and the Keys reaching the low to middle 70s.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents can be expected along all Florida Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches due to persistent onshore winds and lingering ocean swells. All other beaches along the East Coast will see a moderate risk for rip currents return. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk to continue. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Possible wave heights of 3-5’ will continue to create dangerous beach and boating conditions along the far western Panhandle where a High Surf Advisory remains in effect through this evening. Slowly dissipating wave heights along the Big Bend and West Coast can be expected throughout the day, but wave heights upwards of 2-4’ will be possible at times. Weaker onshore winds along the East Coast will allow for the ocean swell just offshore to gradually dissipate. Wave heights of 3-5’ can be expected throughout the day along beaches as the ocean swell weakens this afternoon and evening. Atlantic-facing Key beaches will continue to see elevated surf near 4-6’.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk of coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: High pressure will continue to bring easterly to southeasterly winds across the state, with wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph at times along the Florida East Coast. Onshore winds will help to develop very isolated showers along the East Coast and allow them to move westward throughout the day, but drier air at the ground may prevent rainfall from reaching the surface. Drier air along the I-75 corridor and interior western Peninsula will allow for relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds this afternoon (30-35%). Ongoing warm and dry conditions, along with near critical threshold relative humidity values and breezy winds, will allow for sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions throughout the interior Peninsula this afternoon. Areas of patchy fog may develop overnight and early Tuesday morning along the Florida Panhandle ahead of approaching isolated to widely scattered showers and possible thunderstorms. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 53 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2320 acres.
Drought: High pressure has yielded dry conditions and above normal temperatures nearly statewide over the last week, leading to deteriorating soil moisture and streamflow conditions. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along portions of the Central and Southern Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the coast to the coast south of I-4 and north of I-75, surrounding and north of Lake Okeechobee. 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 4-6” below normal along eastern portions of Central and South Florida, east and northeast of Lake Okeechobee, with isolated pockets of 6-8” below normal. North and northwest of Lake Okeechobee to the West Coast, 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 2-4” below normal. Little to no rainfall expected across the region over the next week may exacerbate drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 310 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are three Florida counties (Indian River, Martin and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk of flash flooding today. Rainfall totals statewide are forecast remain below 0.5”; however, thunderstorms along the western Panhandle could produce locally heavier rainfall at times.
Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings remain in effect along central portions of the Suwannee River following heavy rainfall from the early April severe weather event. Minor riverine flooding continues for the Suwannee River at Branford, Rock Bluff, and Manatee Springs, as well as the Santa Fe River at Hildreth, as water levels continue to slowly decline with the help of ongoing dry conditions. Water levels are forecast to fall below flood stage through the middle of the week as water flushes out of the river basins. The Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates remains just within moderate flood stage but is forecast to fall into minor flood stage later today. Water levels will continue to steadily decline through the week and over the weekend. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.28 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.61 feet above normal for this time of year.
