Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents can be expected along all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches as breezy winds onshore winds and large breaking waves develop today. A low risk persists along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Breezy, and at times gusty, winds will continue to build ocean swells in the Gulf of Mexico and Western Atlantic today. High Surf Advisories will go into effect this morning as large breaking waves of 4-6’ with locally higher breaking waves around 7’ are expected this weekend. The rest of the Florida Panhandle can expect wave heights to reach 2-4’. Additional High Surf Advisories will go into effect this evening along the Southeast Coast as large breaking waves of 5-8’ are anticipated in the surf. The Atlantic-facing Keys will also see 5-8’ waves today. All other East Coast beaches can expect wave heights near 4-6’ with locally 7’ breaking waves possible. West Coast and Gulf-facing Key beaches will see 1-4’ wave heights. Hazardous beach and boating conditions will develop statewide by this evening. Minor beach erosion may be possible along the Panhandle and Southeast Coast.

Red Tide has been observed at background levels in one sample collected from Northwest Florida (Escambia County) on 4/18.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today; however, breezy easterly to southeasterly winds may lead to elevated water levels (0.25-0.75’ above normal) at times of high tide along the vulnerable Forgotten Coast, primarily near Apalachicola.

Fire Weather: Easterly to southeasterly winds will allow for moisture to slowly recover statewide over the next few days; however, high pressure building along the U.S. Eastern Seaboard will continue to allow dry air to linger across the interior Peninsula. Relative humidity values will fall near or below critical thresholds (30-40%) along portions of Central and Southwest Florida this afternoon, creating sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions. Red Flag Warnings are not anticipated but cannot be ruled out along portions of interior Central Florida that have seen a lack of substantial rainfall persist across the area and are experiencing abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions. Winds will strengthen today as a strong frontal system over the Central U.S. pushes up against the area of high pressure to the east. Wind gusts near 20-30 mph are anticipated nearly statewide this afternoon with locally stronger gusts upwards of 30-35 mph along Florida Panhandle and East coastlines. Isolated to widely scattered showers will likely make their way onshore along the East Coast and South Florida today; however, rainfall will be limited. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 35 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 492 acres.

Drought: High pressure has yielded dry conditions and above normal temperatures nearly statewide over the last week, leading to deteriorating soil moisture and streamflow conditions. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded along portions of the Central and Southern Peninsula on this week’s drought monitor update and now stretch from the coast to the coast south of I-4 and north of I-75, surrounding and north of Lake Okeechobee. 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 4-6” below normal along eastern portions of Central and South Florida, east and northeast of Lake Okeechobee, with isolated pockets of 6-8” below normal. North and northwest of Lake Okeechobee to the West Coast, 60-day rainfall deficits have reached 2-4” below normal. Little to no rainfall expected across the region over the next week may exacerbate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 290 (+12) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are three Florida counties (Indian River, Martin, and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

Flash Flooding: There is no risk of flash flooding today. 

Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings remain in effect for several rivers and waterways along the Suwannee Valley. Moderate river flooding continues for the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as water levels have crested and are beginning to fall. The Santa Fe River near Hildreth and portions of the Suwannee River (at Luraville, at Branford, at Rock Bluff near Bell) remain within minor flood stage but have crested and are forecast to fall below flood stage this weekend and early next week. Additional forecast points along the Suwannee River (near Wilcox and at Manatee Springs) continue to see minor flooding as water flows downstream through the river basin. Dry conditions over the next few days will help to allow elevated water levels to crest and slowly decline. No additional riverine flooding is expected and there are no other riverine concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center. 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.39 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.67 feet above normal for this time of year.