RSS NHC Tropical Weather Discussion

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111046
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1205 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1030 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Senegal near
14N17W south-southwestward to 10N18W and to 06N22W, where
overnight scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the
ITCZ and continues to 03N31W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
from 02N to 04N and between 20W-28W. Scattered moderate
convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 28W-29W, and
within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 29W-35W. Similar
convection is from the Equator to 06N between 35W-50W, and
northwest of the ITCZ from 03N to 07N between 50W and the coast
of South America.

An area of numerous moderate to strong is offshore the coast of
Africa from 02N to 05N between 08W-15W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A stationary front extends from the western Florida Panhandle to
27N93W to inland Mexico just north of Tampico. No significant
convection is associated with the front. Overnight ASCAT data
shows moderate to fresh northeast to east winds behind the
front. Seas with these winds are 3 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, a weak
pressure pattern is present, with the related gradient allowing
for generally gentle to moderate winds. The overnight ASCAT data
also indicates moderate to fresh northeast to east winds near
the northern Yucatan peninsula and in the eastern Bay of
Campeche. These winds extend northward to near 24N. Seas
elsewhere are also 3 to 5 ft.

For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will soon
transition back to a cold front this morning and move southeastward
across the basin, reaching from near Tampa Bay, Florida to South
Texas this morning. The front will stall again from the Straits of
Florida to South Texas on Sun, then gradually weaken with its
remnants lifting back north as a warm front through Sun night.
Moderate to locally fresh northeast winds will follow the front
into Sat evening. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate for
the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly
impacting the western Gulf by Tue. Meanwhile, haze due to
agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico continues across most of
the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will
pulse near the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through next few
days. East winds at fresh speeds are expected to develop in the
NW Gulf Wed and Wed night and in the far south-central Gulf near
and in the Yucatan Channel.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean, as high
pressure is centered across the east-central Atlantic, with a
ridge extending west-southwestward to the Straits of Florida as
inferred from overnight ASCAT data. The related gradient is
maintaining gentle to moderate trade winds over most of the basin,
with the exception of fresh to strong east to southeast winds
over the outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are slight
to moderate across the basin, with peak seas to 6 ft across the
Gulf of Honduras. Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad
anticyclone aloft prevail across most of the basin west of 70W,
except in the far southwestern part of the sea where scattered
showers and thunderstorms are noted. This is where the eastern
segment of the east Pacific monsoon trough exists. Similar
activity is over some sections of Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, the high pressure north of the basin will
continue support fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras,
moderate to fresh winds in the south-central and in the
southeastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere
through the weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next
week, with fresh to strong trades in the south-central and
northwestern Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas
will build next week as a result of the increasing winds.
Meanwhile, haze due to agricultural fires in Central America
continues across most of the NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

An approaching cold front is just north of the NW part of the
area west of about 76W to inland the Georgia/Florida border.
Satellite imagery shows increasing showers and thunderstorms
moving east-southeastward out ahead of it from 27N to 30N between
72W and 80W, and also along and just north of 31N between 66W and
72W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the front
between 66W and 77W. A weak trough extends from 29N60W to low
pressure of 1014 mb near 25N60W and continues to 19N61W. A few
showers are near these features. These features will have little
impact on marine conditions as they gradually weaken further this
morning. Another trough extends from near 29N49W to 19N48W.
Isolated showers are east of this trough from 22N to 30N between
44W and 48W.

Elsewhere, rather weak high pressure is the main feature that is
driving the general wind flow pattern across the discussion
domain. The high pressure is anchored by a 1026 mb high north of
the area at 34N32W. Overnight ASCAT data depicts a wide swath of
fresh to strong west to northwest winds north of 30N and between
77W and 80W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong
southwest winds are north of 27N and between 66W and 77W along
with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 8 ft
north of 30N. To the south, gentle to moderate easterly winds
remain north of the Greater Antilles to near 22N. Seas are 3 to
4 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trade winds cover a
portion of the eastern waters. These trades are found north of
15N east of 30W, south of 19N between 30W and 46W, and south of
14N between 46W and 55W. Seas with these winds are 6 to 7 ft as
detected by latest altimeter satellite data passes over that
part of the eastern Atlantic.

For the forecast W of 55W, the weak high pressure over the area
will continue to retreat eastward as a cold front moves off the
southeastern United States this morning. The front will reach
from 31N72W to South Florida by early this afternoon, then from
just southeast of Bermuda to the Straits of Florida early Sun.
Fresh to strong winds will be ahead of the front through Sat
evening, with moderate to fresh winds behind the front. Seas to
around 8 ft are expected with the fresh to strong winds. The
front is expected to weaken and slow down as it reaches from
31N59W to the southeastern Bahamas early Mon, then from 29N55W
to 23N65W early Tue as high pressure builds in the wake of the
front. Another front may move over the waters east of northeast
Florida around mid-week. Ahead of this possible next front,
fresh to locally strong southerly winds are expected over the
northwest part of the area starting late Mon.

$$
Aguirre