RSS Tropical Weather Outlook

NHC Atlantic Tropical Weather Discussion

000
AXNT20 KNHC 111657
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1630 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough axis extends from the coast of Africa near
12N16W south-southwestward to 07N20W. The ITCZ continues from
07N20W to 03N35W to 03N40W and to the coast of Brazil
near 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to
06N between 15W and 25W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to 28N90W
where it continues as a stationary front to southern Texas near
27N98W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas follow the
front. Moderate winds or less and 2 to 4 ft seas are over the
remainder of the basin, except in the SE Gulf and Straits of
Florida where seas are less than 3 ft.

For the forecast, the front will reach from the Straits of
Florida to the central Gulf by early Sun where it will fully
stall and weaken, with its remnants lifting back N as a warm front
through Sun night. Moderate to fresh return flow will dominate
for the start of next week, with another front or trough possibly
impacting the western Gulf Mon night. Meanwhile, haze due to
agricultural fires in Mexico continues across most of the western
Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong winds will pulse near
the Yucatan Peninsula each evening through the period. Moderate to
fresh SE winds will dominate the western Gulf late this weekend,
then the eastern Gulf early next week.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean and
maintains moderate trade winds over most of the basin, with the
exception of fresh to strong east to southeast winds over the
outer portions of the Gulf of Honduras and off the north coast
of Venezuela. Seas are slight to moderate across the basin, with
peak seas to 6 ft across the Gulf of Honduras.

Stable atmospheric conditions under a broad anticyclone aloft
prevail across most of the basin west of 75W, except in the far
southwestern part of the sea where scattered showers and thunderstorms
are noted. This is where the eastern segment of the east Pacific
monsoon trough exists. Similar activity is over some sections of
Costa Rica and Panama.

For the forecast, high pressure N of the basin will support
fresh to strong winds near the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to
fresh winds in the south-central and in the southeastern
Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere through the
weekend. The pressure gradient will tighten early next week, with
fresh to strong trades in the south-central and northwestern
Caribbean, and moderate to fresh elsewhere. Seas will build next
week as a result of the increasing winds. Meanwhile, haze due to
agricultural fires in Central America continues across most of the
NW Caribbean.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front from 31N70W to near Fort Pierce, Florida has fresh
to strong SW winds N of 27N ahead of it to 65W, where seas are 6
to 8 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are north of 26N
between 68W and the northern Bahamas.

Elsewhere, rather weak high pressure is the main feature that is
driving the general wind flow pattern across the discussion
domain. The high pressure is anchored by a 1028 mb high north of
the area at 35N30W. ASCAT data depicts mainly moderate E winds
south of 15N and west of 40W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft, with
lighter winds north of 15N. East of 40W, moderate to fresh winds
and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail, except north of 18N and east of 20W
to the coast of Africa where fresh northerly winds are noted.

For the forecast W of 55W, the front will reach from 31N64W to
near the Florida Keys early Sun, then from 31N59W to the central
Bahamas early Sun, dissipating from 27N55W to 23N70W early Tue.
High pressure will build in behind the front for the start of next
week. Fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas are
forecast offshore N Florida by mid-week ahead of another possible
cold front.

$$
Mora