RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday June 1st, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A typical summer-like day is in store today with hot and humid afternoon conditions and sea-breeze driven shower and storm activity later today.
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With large-scale westerly flow still in place, the focus for sea-breeze showers will again be along the eastern half of the Peninsula (40-60% chance for rain) with a focus on the I-95 Corridor (50-80% chance for rain) in the late-afternoon/early evening hours.
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Elsewhere, a weak cold front remains draped over North Florida that will promote some isolated to scattered (30-50% chance for rain) showers and thunderstorms today.
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Chance for rain are low (10-20%) along the West Coast of Florida today as westerly flow quickly pushes the West Coast sea breeze inland and towards the East Coast during the early morning hours.
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Winds will be gusty today for North-Central Florida at around20-25mph.
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While there is no organized risk for severe weather with any storms today, a fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Additionally, while today is the first day in over a week without any organized threat of excessive rainfall outlooked by The Weather Prediction Center, an isolated chance of somenuisance flooding in heavy downpourscannot be ruled out given the abundantly moist atmosphere and recent rounds of heavy rainfall.
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High temperatures will remain in thelower 90sstatewide today.
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Very high humidities will make the outside feel extremelyhot and muggy across the entire state. Feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with many locations likelyexceeding 100 degrees.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate quickly following sunset.
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A few showers and storms lingering through the overnight hours near coastal locations is possible (10-30% chance), especially along the East Coast and the extreme Western Panhandle.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop along the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Tuesday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Ahigh risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the majority of the East Coast and portions of the West Coast.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 31st, 2026.
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A frontal boundary currently located over Central GA will slowly sag southward towards the FL state line today. This will provide a source of focused lift for shower and thunderstorms development, primarily over the Panhandle and Northeast FL regions today and tonight.
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Storm activity will initiate in the late morning to early afternoon hours and persist through the evening across Northern Florida.
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Coverage of today’s activity in North FL will bescattered to widespread (50-80% chance of rain), aided by the very moist air mass overtop.
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Elsewhere in the state, the Eastern half of the peninsula will be another focus for late afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
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Central and Eastern Florida carries a medium chance (40-60%) for rain today, whereas the West Coast and Coastal Panhandle regions carry a low (10-20%) chance for rain.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across inland North Florida (40-60% chance) as the front continues its southward march tonight.
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A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across coastal peninsula location overnight as well (20-40% chance of rain).
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While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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AMarginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of North Florida today - a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days. Any areas that receive multiple rounds ofheavy downpours orslow-moving/training thunderstorms could experienceflooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain mostly in the 80s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall. However, peeks of sunshine may bring temperatures into the lower 90s across the interior Peninsula.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as humidity increases. Feels-like temperatures will approach theupper 90s throughout Central and South Florida this afternoon. A few locations maybriefly reach or exceed 100 degrees this afternoon.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop in the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Monday.
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A high risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches.A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for much of the Northeast/East-Central coastlines.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 41 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 14749 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 30, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
- Another day of primarily southwesterly to westerly flow is in store for the state of Florida as the state is still positioned between an upper-level disturbance to our northeast and a ridge axis to the south.
- The spatial distribution of showers and thunderstorms today will favor the I-10 Corridor owing to this surface flow orientation.
- Coverage of showers and storms are expected to be widespread (50-80% chance of rain) along the I-10 Corridor today as the deeply moist tropical airmass still overtop much of the state will likely promote the quick development of storms during the daytime hours.
- Elsewhere in Florida, chances for rain are favored along the East Coast, however probabilities decrease with southward extent due to some drier air that has filtered in.
- Rain chances vary from medium (40-60%) along the Treasure and Space Coasts to low (20-30%) along the Gold Coast. Chances for rain are very low (10%) for the West Coast today.
- While there is no organized risk for severe weather with any storms today, a few locally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across Northeast Florida today. Any areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours or training thunderstorms could experience flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
- Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amounts upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out.
- High temperatures will remain in the upper 80 to lower 90s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall.
- Hot and muggy conditions are still expected statewide as high humidity values remain in place.
- Feels-like temperatures will approach the middle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with a few isolated locations likely approaching or exceeding 100 degrees.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity may linger past sunset tonight across Northeast Florida before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain). A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across the state overnight as well (15-25% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
- Areas of patchy fog may develop along the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could become locally dense.
- A high risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk of rip currents is expected for portions of the Space and Treasure Coasts.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 45 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 14759 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 29th, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level2
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The state of Florida is positioned between a large upper-level disturbance over the Northeast U.S. that is diving southeastward over the open Atlantic and a weak ridge axis to the south over the Western Caribbean. The resulting surface flow between these two features will generally be southwesterly to westerly across the state.
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This flow regime will favor inland Panhandle locations and the East Coast for today’s shower and thunderstorm activity.
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With the deeply moist tropical airmass still firmly overtop the state, there is ahigh (50-80%) chance of showers and storms for these locations.
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The East Coast is likely to see the greatest coverage and intensity of activity today as westerly flow will push the West Coast sea breeze inland where it may collide with the pinned East Coast sea breeze and promote enhanced thunderstorm growth.
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A fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph). Coastal Panhandle, West Coast, and Florida Keys locations will see the lowest chances of rain today (<30%).
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across North-Central Florida and the East Coast before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and across Northeast Florida corridor today.
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Any areas that receive multiple rounds ofheavy downpours ortraining thunderstorms could experienceflooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain in the upper 80 tolower 90sstatewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as high humidity values remain. Feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with a few isolated locations likelyapproaching or exceeding 100 degrees.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Amoderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 57 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17900 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 28th, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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Yet another wet and rainy day is expected across the Sunshine State as rich moist flow around area of high pressure turns southwesterly out of the Gulf today.
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A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the Central and South Florida coasts, and additional activity will develop throughout the Peninsula this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland (50-80% chance of rain).
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With southwesterly flow, the focus for activity will be across the interior Peninsula where the sea breezes collide, eventually pushing eastward towards the East Coast.
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across Southeast Florida where repeated rounds ofheavy downpours may lead tonuisance flooding andponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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A Marginal Risk is also outlooked across the Panhandle where a few rounds of showers and storms will develop along the Gulf sea breeze this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain).
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Any of this activity statewide could becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph).
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Rainfall totals will generally remain around 1-2”, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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Highs will reach the middle to upper 80s statewide today, withfeels-like temperatures approaching themiddle to upper 90s in Central and South Florida.
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Tonight, showers and storms will linger across East-Central and Southeast Florida before dissipating or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the rest of the state (15-25% chance of rain).
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Lows will remain in the 70s to lower 80s statewide.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 66 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,998 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
