RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 5th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity expected across the Sunshine State today.
- Unlike previous days, the greatest rain chances return to North and Central Florida (65-85% chance of rain).
- No organized risks for severe weather or flash flooding; however, strong to locally severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
- Gusty winds (45-60 mph), frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours possible within stronger thunderstorms.
- Instances of nuisance flooding and ponding water become more likely for urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
- Shower and thunderstorm chances become more scattered in nature south of the I-4 corridor (30-50%) as the typical summertime pattern returns.
- Triple digit heat index values (98 to 103-degrees)develop nearly statewide this afternoon.
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog and low clouds possible tonight into Friday morning over portions of North Florida.
- An elevated risk of rip currents continues for statewide coastlines, with a high risk for Florida Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches.
- Tropical development is not expected during the next 7 days across the Atlantic basin.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 4th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Unsettled weather will expand across the Sunshine State throughout the day with the help of tropical moisture and an upper-level disturbance moving from the northeastern gulf waters and towards the southeastern U.S. coast.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been ongoing across portions of South Florida, but additional activity will continue to develop throughout the day across the state generally spreading from south to north (65-95% chance of rain).
- Extensive cloud cover may limit some thunderstorm develop, but any breaks in cloud cover may allow for embedded strong to severe thunderstorms to develop in the peak heating hours of the day.
- Frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and heavy downpours will be possible embedded within thunderstorm activity.
- Intense rainfall rates and repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to instances of flash flooding, especially over areas that have already seen locally heavy downpours over the last couple of days.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding near statewide.
- Portions of Miami-Dade will remain within a Flood Watch through this afternoon as repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over urban areas could exacerbate the potential for localized flooding.
- Cloud cover and elevated rain chances will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s throughout the state, with heat index values generally remaining in the lower 90s.
- The Florida Keys will see heat index values in the upper 90s to lower triple digits (100-102-degrees) this afternoon.
- Saharan Dry Air will begin to filter in across portions of South Florida overnight helping to reprieve shower and thunderstorm activity.
- Throughout the rest of the state, activity will generally diminish, but isolated to scattered activity will continue overnight throughout the state (25-55% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s throughout the state overnight, except for the Keys which will see low temperatures in the lower 80s.
- Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-5' throughout the state will lead to a moderate to high risk for rip currents statewide.
- Near the Southeastern U.S. Coast: Showers and thunderstorms located over the Florida Peninsula and southeastern U.S. coast, the northern Bahamas, and the adjacent Atlantic and Gulf waters are associated with a broad upper-level disturbance. A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form from this system on Thursday, but it is becoming increasingly likely that this development will occur inland over the Carolina’s. As a result, the low’s chances of acquiring subtropical or tropical characteristics have diminished. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause some flash flooding along portions of the southeastern U.S. coast today and on Thursday. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but will bring elevated rain chances, breezy winds and rough surf conditions for Atlantic Coast beaches over the next couple of days.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…near 0%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 3rd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Unsettled and active weather will continue today throughout the Peninsula as an upper-level disturbance and lingering frontal boundary will continue to bring scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (80-near 100% chance of rain).
- The heaviest rainfall looks to remain over the Florida Keys and southernmost Peninsula areas this morning before additional activity develops with daytime heating and spreading inland.
- Moisture continues to be pulled northward from the tropics, which will also help for isolated showers and thunderstorms to return across the I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening (25-55% chance of rain).
- Daily thunderstorms will be capable of becoming locally strong to severe during the peak heating hours of the day, bringing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
- A Flood Watch has been issued through Wednesday morning as multiple rounds of heavy rainfall from yesterday and today could lead to instances of localized flash flooding across portions of South Florida.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk(level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding from the I-4 corridor and southward through the Keys today.
- Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph will develop across the state outside of thunderstorm activity, especially by the mid-to-late afternoon hours.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula with extensive cloud cover and elevated rain chances, while the Panhandle will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat index values will rise into the middle to upper 90s across the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- As the upper-level disturbance shifts eastward towards the Atlantic coastline, showers and thunderstorms will extend northward along the I-95 corridor and Atlantic Coast overnight.
- Additional shower and thunderstorms activity will also continue throughout the state overnight and into Wednesday morning (40-85% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s overnight.
- Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast: A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary during the next couple of days. If the low remains offshore, it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10-15 mph. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but will bring elevated rain chances, breezy winds and rough surf conditions for Atlantic Coast beaches over the next couple of days.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
- A moderate risk for rip currents will extend along all Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches as surf increases to 2-4' and onshore winds return.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 2nd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- An active weather pattern will continue across the Peninsula as a frontal boundary remains draped along the I-4 corridor.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have already developed this morning, and additional activity will develop with the help of daytime heating and the daily sea breeze (50-85% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible along portions of East-Central and South Florida this afternoon and evening, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
- Strong thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), large hail (quarter-size) and locally heavy rainfall.
- An embedded tornado or funnel cloud cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze.
- Plenty of available moisture across the Peninsula will give way to multiple rounds of heavy rainfall, which could lead to instances of flash flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout the Peninsula, with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across South Florida through today.
- Widespread rainfall totals of 1-3" will be possible throughout the Peninsula, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-6" possible across portions of South Florida and the Keys.
- Mostly dry conditions will continue throughout North Florida with a chance for some spotty showers along the sea breeze this afternoon and evening.
- Warm and seasonable temperatures will continue across the state with temperatures reaching the middle to upper 80s and lower 90s.
- Heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity looks to continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours across South Florida and the Keys, with the heaviest activity pushing offshore by the early morning hours on Tuesday (45-85% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle 60s to middle 70s overnight throughout the state.
- Instances of patchy fog may be possible early Tuesday morning throughout portions of North Florida.
- A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected along several North Florida beaches, with a low risk anticipated elsewhere.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 1, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and thunderstorms quickly developed again this morning across the South-Central Florida Peninsula; a few thunderstorms along the Treasure Coast have already prompted the issuance of severalSevere Thunderstorm Warnings.
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Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms continue along and to the south of a stalling frontal boundary in the Florida Peninsula (70-90% chance of rain);strong to locally severethunderstorms possible.
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has introduced aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather across the southern Florida Peninsula; thunderstorms will be capable of producing strong wind gusts (45-60 mph), frequent lightning, instances of hail, and heavy downpours.
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Summertime thunderstorms pose the risk fornuisance flooding and ponding water,especially for urban corridors and usual poor drainage trouble spots.
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A lull in shower and thunderstorm activity expected this evening, with elevated rain chances returning before sunrise across Central and South Florida (45-65% chance of rain).
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Heat indicesalong a few coastal South Florida and Florida Keys communities approach thetriple digitsthis afternoon.
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Another day filled with ample sunshine and near-zero rain chances can be expected across North Florida, courtesy of a post-frontal area of high pressure.
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Anelevated risk of rip currentscan be expected along most Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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Today (June 1) marks the start of the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season, which runs through November 30;tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic basin over the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
