RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, August 24, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Another wet and rainy day can be expected once again for much of the Sunshine State today as weak cold front remains nearly stationary along the northern Peninsula allowing for tropical moisture to pool ahead of it.
- Westerly winds are already bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms inland from the adjacent gulf waters this morning, and this trend will continue throughout the day with coverage becoming more widespread (65-85% chance of rain).
- The help of daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will allow for additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the day across the Peninsula.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across most of the Peninsula as repeated rounds of downpours and training thunderstorms could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-7” possible, especially along the Florida West Coast.
- Some drier air will filter into the northern Panhandle on the backside of the front keeping shower and thunderstorm chances more isolated to widely scattered this afternoon and evening,
- Extensive cloud cover and widespread rain chances will keep temperatures slightly “cooler” in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- Heat index values will remain in the middle to upper 90s across most of the state, with portions of South Florida and the Keys reaching triple digits (100-108-degrees).
- Some persistent shower activity will continue along the Florida West Coast, and then move eastward, during the overnight hours as onshore winds continue (35-65% chance of rain).
- Instances of patchy fog may be possible early Monday morning across upper portions of the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.
- Low temperatures behind the front will drop into the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle.
- Central and South Florida will continue to see low temperatures in the middle to upper 70s and even the lower 80s across the portions of the West Coast and the Keys.
- Ocean swells of 2-5' along the Florida East Coast will continue to lead to a high risk for rip currents. A moderate risk can be expected for nearly all Panhandle and West Coast beaches due to southwesterly to westerly onshore winds.
- Nuisance and minor coastal flooding may be possible within low-lying lots and poor drainage areas along the Upper Keys near and during times of high tide - Coastal Flood Statement.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Storm Fernand: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Tropical Storm Fernand was located about 300 miles southeast of Bermuda and moving north-northeastward at 15 mph. This motion is expected to continue for the next day or two, followed by a turn to the northeast. On the forecast track, Fernand should move well east of Bermuda and across the open waters of the subtropical North Atlantic. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but then a weakening trend is expected by Tuesday. Fernand poses no threat to Florida.
- East of the Windward Islands (Invest 99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about 200 miles east of the Windward Islands have increased since yesterday. However, the wave does no appear to have a surface circulation. This system could still become a tropical depression during the next day or two while it moves quickly westward at about 20-25 mph, passing through the Windward and Leeward Islands later today and early Monday. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands today and Monday. The system is expected to reach the central Caribbean Sea on Tuesday, where conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. An Air Force reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon, if necessary. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, August 23rd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A weak cold front slowly drifting south across southern Alabama and Georgia will help focus abundant tropical moisture across the entire state today (60-90% chance of rain).
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms are already ongoing across the Big Bend and North Florida this morning and will slowly move south and east.
- Additional showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze this afternoon during peak heating hours.
- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked for Northeast Florida, the I-10 corridor, and south along the Nature Coast; A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) is outlooked south to the I-4 corridor and across the western Panhandle.
- Saturated soils and repeated rounds of heavy downpours may lead to localized instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
- Far South Florida and the Florida Keys will remain further away from the deeper tropical moisture, keeping rainfall chances more scattered in nature (30-60% chance of rain).
- Any embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorm across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions are expected today, though “cooler” than previous days with abundant cloud cover and rainfall.
- High temperatures will only reach the upper 80s to lower 90s across North and Central Florida with feels like temperatures in the middle to upper 90s.
- South Florida may see temperatures climb into the middle 90s yielding heat index values in the lower 100s (100-103-degrees).
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and early overnight hours before dissipating and drifting offshore after midnight.
- Some showers and thunderstorms will re-emerge over the West Coast by early daybreak on Sunday (40-70% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the lower to upper 70s.
- A high risk for rip currents persists along all East Coast beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for Panhandle and Sun Coast beaches along the Gulf.
- Wave heights will remain elevated today peaking at 3-5’ for much of the East Coast this afternoon. Further offshore wave heights may exceed 5’.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Southwestern Atlantic (90L): Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized in association with a low pressure located a few hundred miles north of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development of this system, and a tropical storm is expected to form this weekend while it moves north-northwestward and then northward over the southwestern Atlantic. Some impacts are likely in Bermuda. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Formation chance through 48 hours… high… 80%.
- Formation chance through 7 days… high… 90%.
- Central Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical disturbance are located more than one thousand miles east of the Windward Islands and have become less organized over the past 24 hours due to strong wind shear. No development is expected through tonight while the system traverses the area of strong wind shear. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment Sunday and Monday as it approaches the Windward Islands, and some slow development is possible during that time. By the middle of next week, conditions over the Caribbean are expected to be unfavorable for further development.
- Formation chance through 48 hours… low… 10%.
- Formation chance through 7 days… low… 20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, August 22nd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A wet and unsettled weekend is on tap for much of the Sunshine state as a weak cold front across the Southeast U.S. stalls across North Florida.
- Much of the same can be expected each day with North Florida receiving repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms during the afternoon and evening hours (80-90% chance of rain).
- Ample tropical moisture, this cold front, and the afternoon sea breeze boundaries will promote localized flooding and ponding of water across North Florida; a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked each day.
- Some of these showers and thunderstorms may be slow-moving, and any areas that receive prolonged heavy downpours may experience flash flooding.
- Across South Florida, showers and thunderstorms are also expected each day but will be more scattered in nature (40-70% chance of rain).
- Any of these daily embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Afternoon high temperatures will be held in the upper 80s to lower 90s with heat index values struggling to reach the triple digits across North Florida with more abundant cloud cover.
- Across Central and South Florida, a bit less cloud coverage and lower rainfall chances will allow heat index values to climb into the lower to middle 100s (100-105-degrees).
- Afternoon showers and thunderstorms will generally subside across interior portions of the Peninsula into the evening hours.
- However, the stalled cold front across North Florida and the Big Bend region may promote lingering showers and thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours each night (30-60% chance of rain).
- Overnight low temperatures will reach the lower to upper 70s statewide.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Near the Leeward Islands (90L): Showers and thunderstorms are showing some signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located about a hundred miles east-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for further development and a tropical depression or tropical storm is very likely to form this weekend while it moves northwestward and then northward. Formation chances are high (80-90%) over the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Central Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located about midway between Africa and the Windward Islands has become less organized overnight. While there is still some chance that a short-lived tropical depression could form during the next day or so, the system is expected to move through a less conducive environment into Saturday. The wave could reach a slightly more favorable environment again late this weekend into early next week as it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic and approaches the Lesser Antilles. Formation chances are medium (40-50%) over the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, August 21st, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Westerly flow will return across the Sunshine state bringing a typical summertime pattern with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the afternoon sea breeze statewide (50-70% chance of rain).
- The greatest chance of rain is across the Panhandle where a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked.
- Numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms may produce localized flash flooding and ponding of water, especially with any slow-moving thunderstorms.
- A general 1-2" of rain is expected in most locations statewide, with locally higher totalsof 3-5" in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
- Any thunderstorm across the state will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions will persist with high temperatures climbing into the lower to middle 90s across the state; heat index values will reach into the triple digits (102-106-degrees).
- Some locations in South Florida may briefly reach heat advisory criteria this afternoon, though a widespread advisory is unlikely.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the evening and early overnight hours, especially across North Florida (30-45% chance of rain), before dissipating and drifting offshore after midnight.
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s.
- Distant Hurricane Erin will continue to bring a high risk for rip currents along all East Coast beaches due to dangerous ocean swells. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous and life-threatening ocean swells of 4-8' will persist along the Florida East Coast throughout the day due to distant Hurricane Erin.
- High Surf Advisories remain posted for all First, Space, and Treasure Coast beaches through today as ocean swells remain elevated.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Hurricane Erin is moving toward the north-northeast near 17 mph. A turn toward the northeast with an increase in forward speed is expected later today, followed by an acceleration toward the east-northeast Friday and this weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph, with higher gusts, making Erin a category 2 hurricane. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days and Erin is expected to become post-tropical this weekend.
- Near the Leeward Islands: An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave is located a few hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands. Formation chances are medium (40%)through the next 48 hours and high (70%)through the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (99L): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands show some signs of organization. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for development over the next day while it moves west-southwestward at 15 mph. In a couple of days, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chances are medium (40%)through 48 hours and the next 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Central Atlantic: A small area of low pressure located 1200 miles southwest of the Azores is producing limited showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level winds are only marginally favorable for development while the system moves slowly eastward over the next few days. Formation chances are low (30%)through the next 48 hours to 7 days. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, August 20th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and thunderstorms are currently offshore the east coast of Florida this morning associated with the outer circulation of distant Hurricane Erin.
- Onshore winds and the sea breeze will push some of these showers and thunderstorms onto the East Coast throughout the day remaining isolated to scattered in nature (30-55% chance of rain).
- Drier air across the state will keep much of the western Peninsula and North Florida with modest rainfall chances (15-35% chance of rain) while a bit more elevated over the western Panhandle (30-50% chance of rain).
- Some breezier winds of 15-20 mph can be expected along the East Coast with offshore Hurricane Erin.
- Some locally higher wind gusts upwards of 25 mph could occur across Northeast Florida.
- Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
- Instances of nuisance street flooding and ponding of water will be possible with any heavy downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms.
- Warm and muggy conditions will remain today with high temperatures reaching the lower to middle 90s.
- Heat index values will continue to reach triple digits (100-107-degrees) in the early to mid-afternoon for much of the state.
- A Heat Advisory for dangerous heat index values upwards of 110-degrees will go into effect this afternoon across Southeast Florida.
- Showers and thunderstorms will generally dissipate by the evening and early overnight hours, though may linger along the coastlines and push back onshore Thursday morning over Southwest Florida (15-35% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s.
- Distant Hurricane Erin will bring a high risk for rip currents along all East Coast beaches due to onshore winds and dangerous ocean swells. A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous Panhandle beaches.
- Dangerous and life-threatening ocean swells of 5-10' will peak along the Florida East Coast throughout the day due to distant Hurricane Erin.
- High Surf Advisories have been posted for numerous First, Space, and Treasure Coast beaches through Thursday as ocean swells remain elevated.
- Wave activity, onshore winds and high astronomical tides may lead to instances of minor coastal flooding and beach erosion along portions of the Florida East Coast.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the Northeast Florida coastline through 11pm this evening.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Hurricane Erin is expected to turn north and north-northeastward today and tonight, followed by a faster forward motion toward the northeast and east-northeast Thursday and Friday. Maximum sustained winds are near 100 mph, with higher gusts, making Erin a category 2 hurricane. Some strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Weakening is likely to bring on Friday, but Erin is forecast to remain a hurricane into the weekend.
- Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend while it moves near or north of the Leeward Islands. Formation chances remain low (10%) through the next 48 hours and medium (60%) over the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
- Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 99L): A tropical wave located to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally favorable for additional development over the next day or so while the system moves westward at around 15 mph and a short-lived tropical depression could form. By the end of the week, environmental conditions are expected to become unfavorable for further development. Formation chances are medium (40%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
