RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, March 28, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A few areas of patchy fog throughout the lower Suwannee River Valley will begin to slowly lift and dissipate this morning ahead of our next frontal passage.
- Sufficient moisture along the I-95 corridor and throughout interior Central and South Florida will allow for isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop this afternoon ahead of and along this front, currently draped across North Florida (25-40% chance of rain).
- Across the Panhandle and Big Bend, north to northeasterly winds will increase to 15-20 mph later this morning and early afternoon with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph possible.
- Paired with critically low relative humidities (20-30%), conditions will become favorable this afternoon for significant wildfire development and spread throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- A Red Flag Warning is in effect until 8 PM EDT/7 PM CDT for all of the Panhandle and much of the Big Bend for this critical fire weather risk.
- Further east, even stronger winds are expected throughout Northeast and East-Central Florida, especially along the immediate coastline, where sustained winds of 25-30 mph are expected with gusts upwards of 35-45 mph.
- A Wind Advisory is in effect for much of the East Coast into tonight for these windy conditions.
- Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds across Northeast Florida, though given the extreme drought, elevated wildfire conditions can still be expected.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s throughout much of North Florida this afternoon. Cooler conditions in the middle to upper 60s can be expected along the Northeast Florida coast given the windier conditions. Highs in the 80s will spread throughout the rest of Central and South Florida today.
- Winds will begin to gradually subside throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend into the evening and overnight hours, though some gusts upwards of 20 mph may linger.
- The cold front passing through the Peninsula will begin to stall tonight across South Florida, which will encourage multiple rounds of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms throughout the nighttime hours (40-60% chance of rain).
- Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, some of this activity could bring a few locally heavy downpours capable of producing localized flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations of the Southeast Florida metro region.
- Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2” through tonight, though locally heavier totals upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
- A few isolated showers may also linger along the Northeast and East-Central Florida coast overnight where wind gusts of 25-35 mph will continue to push activity onshore (25-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures tonight will cool off into the lower to middle 50s throughout interior North Florida and upper 50s to lower 60s along the North Florida coasts. Lows in the middle 60s to lower 70s are expected throughout Central and South Florida tonight.
- Surf will begin to significantly increase along the East Coast starting this afternoon in the wake of our frontal passage.
- Surf of 5-8' is expected across all Northeast and Space Coast beaches this afternoon, spreading southward to include Treasure Coast beaches tonight and increasing to 9-12'.
- A High Surf Advisory is in effect beginning later this afternoon and evening and through Sunday from Nassau County to Palm Beach County along the East Coast.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, March 27, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Mostly dry conditions will prevail statewide today with sunny skies this afternoon as high pressure remains overhead.
- A few isolated showers or embedded thunderstorms cannot be ruled out across interior Central and South Florida along the sea breezes as they push inland (15-20% chance of rain), though activity will generally be light and brief in nature.
- Should a heavier slow-moving cell develop, a quick 1-2” of rain cannot be ruled out in localized areas.
- The high-pressure system will bring temperatures to near-record levels this afternoon, with highs reaching the middle to upper 80s across interior portions of the state. A few locations may top out near 90-degrees.
- Breezier winds of 15-20 mph will keep temperatures in the 70s to lower 80s along the coasts.
- Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds this afternoon, however the ongoing drought will continue to promote sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon.
- Clear and calm conditions tonight will encourage another night of fog and low cloud development, with portions of interior Central and South Florida favored for locally dense fog.
- Lows will only reach into the upper 50s to middle 60s across much of the state, with coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys reaching the lower 70s.
- A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most East Coast and Panhandle beaches today, with a local high risk along Palm Beach County beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, March 26, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A few coastal showers remain mainly offshore across Northeast Florida this morning with areas of dense fog throughout the Panhandle, Suwannee River Valley, and interior South Florida.
- These areas of fog will be slow to lift through the morning hours with Dense Fog Advisories set to expire by mid-morning, though may be extended if conditions warrant.
- Otherwise, partly to mostly sunny skies will prevail statewide today with only a slight chance for an isolated afternoon shower or storm across Central Florida along the afternoon sea breeze boundary (15-20% chance of rain).
- Activity will remain mostly light and brief in nature, though a locally heavy downpour and subsequent quick 1-2” of rain cannot be ruled out.
- Center of high pressure will begin to settle across the Peninsula today which will bring an upward trend in temperatures.
- Highs this afternoon will reach the lower to middle 80s throughout much of the state, the exception being along the immediate East Coast and Panhandle where breezier wind gusts of 15-20 mph at times will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler.
- Any lingering showers will quickly dissipate after sunset bringing mostly clear and calm conditions overnight.
- However, plentiful low-level moisture alongside these calm conditions will promotefog and low clouddevelopment statewide tonight.
- Periods of dense fog are most likely across the Panhandle, Big Bend, and Northeast Florida and Dense Fog Advisories will be issued as conditions warrant.
- Lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s are expected for much of the state, with upper 60s to lower 70s for Southeast Florida and the Keys.
- A high risk for rip currents persists for most East Coast beaches; a moderate risk is expected for Southeast and Panhandle beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, March 25th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Our frontal boundary from yesterday has stalled across Central Florida and will continue to support elevated rain chances throughout the day.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms expected along eastern Florida Peninsula, with activity to progress inland across Central Florida through the afternoon (40-60% chance of rain).
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A few thunderstorms may becomestrong; more organized activity capable of producing locally gusty winds, lightning, small hail, andheavy downpours.
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Any slower-moving or more robust thunderstorms could produce localized rainfall totals of 2-5” and instances ofponding water/urban flooding.
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Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected with afternoon high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to middle 80s.
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Slightly cooler temperatures along the immediate eastern Florida coastline due to increased cloud coverage and breezy onshore winds, withwind gustsof15-20 mph.
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Lingering moisture will promotepatchy fog and low cloudsacross Florida tonight and Thursday morning, with the potential forperiods of dense fogacross the Suwannee River Valley and southern Florida Peninsula.
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Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf maintain ahigh risk of rip currentsalong Florida East Coast beaches; anelevated risk of rip currentscontinues for the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Florida Coast.
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Dangerous marine and boating conditionscontinue along the Atlantic Coast;High Surf Advisoriesin effect for Northeast Florida beaches aswave heightsreach4-7'in the surf zone.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, March 24th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A cold front, currently situated south of the I-10 corridor, will largely separate the weather story for North Florida and the Florida Peninsula today.
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Scattered showers and even a few thunderstorms develop along Florida’s First Coast (45-75% chance of rain).
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Locally heavy rainfall ratespossible within shower and thunderstorm activity along the coastal and urban Northeast Florida corridor.
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Wind Advisoriesare in effect until 8:00 PM ET for frequentwind gustsof35-45 mphalong coastal Nassau and Duval Counties.
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Cooler and drier air, and a developing thick cloud deck, behind front will lead to a tricky temperature forecast for North Florida communities; many high temperatures may be realized this morning!
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Rain chances gradually expand to additional portions of North Florida and the Space Coast tonight (30-60% chance of rain).
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Another dry and mostly sunny day can be expected for the Florida Peninsula.
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Low-level moisture to slowly reintroduce itself across the southern Florida Peninsula, with areas offog and low cloudspossible tonight into Wednesday morning.
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Prolonged drought, extremely dry soils/vegetation, andlow relative humidity values (30-45%) will maintain asensitive tolocally elevated wildfire threat over the western Florida Panhandle and southern Florida Peninsula.
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Windy onshore flow will yield ahigh risk of rip currents for all Northeast Florida beaches today,moderate riskconditions continue along the Florida Panhandle and East-Central Florida coastlines.
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Dangerous marine and boating conditionsreturn to the Atlantic Coast;High Surf Advisoriesin effect for Northeast Florida beaches aswave heightsreach6-8'in the surf zone.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
