RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 19th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Any areas ofpatchy fogacross Northeast Florida this morning will slowly dissipate by mid-morning as the sun rises.
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Otherwise, another rinse and repeat of yesterday as high pressure brings persistent east to southeasterly flow over the state.
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breezes this afternoon, focused along the I-75 corridor (30-65% chance of rain).
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Any of this activity could becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could seeupwards of 2-4”.
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Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Peninsula gustingupwards of 20-25 mph.
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High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90s tonear 100-degrees across West-Central and Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset.
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Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail, which will encourage the development ofpatchy fog throughout Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle, some of which could belocally dense.
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. Surf of2-4'is expected along all East Coast beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 70 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,627 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 18th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Drier air will filter into Northeast and North-Central Florida today where chances of rain will remain near zero and relative humidities will approach critically low values (35-45%).
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Sensitive tolocally elevated wildfire danger is expected this afternoon as these low RH overlap with breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph.
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Moisture will linger south of the I-4 corridor and across the northern Panhandle where the sea breezes will help to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain). The highest chance of rain (50-75%) exists along the Southwest Florida coast.
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Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will remain generally below 1” in most locations, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-4” should they see repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
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High temperatures will climb into the 90s throughout much of the state, with breezy winds gusting upwards of 25 mph along the I-95 corridor keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler.
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Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100-degrees across Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset. A few coastal showers may push onshore throughout the overnight hours along the East Coast (15-25% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle by daybreak Tuesday.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 63 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,660 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 17th, 2026.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Moisture will continue to increase across the state today as south to southeasterly flow increases around the periphery of high pressure over the western Atlantic.
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Easterly winds along the East Coast today, where gustsupwards of 20-25 mphwill be possible, will send the Atlantic sea breeze inland towards the I-75 corridor this afternoon where it will collide with the West Coast sea breeze.
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Here, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon and evening with a few storms becominglocally strong to severe (50-75% chance of rain).
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has outlooked aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatherthroughout much of the Peninsula, with the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River Valley the focus for a few storms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and small hail.
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Additionally, any slow-moving thunderstorm could lead tonuisance flooding andponding of water in urban and poor-drainage locations. Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1", though localized areas may seeupwards of 3-5".
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High temperatures will soar into the upper 80s tomiddle 90sstatewide today, with feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90s to near100-degreesalong the I-75 corridor and throughout Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any showers or thunderstorms lingering throughout the Peninsula will slowly dissipate or push offshore after dark (15-30% chance of rain).
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Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail otherwise.
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s throughout much of the state, with the Southeast Metro and Keys only dipping into the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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Areas ofpatchy fogmay develop towards daybreak Monday across the western Panhandle.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all East Coast beaches today, with amoderate riskoutlooked along Panhandle beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 52 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,666 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 16, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Area of high pressure will remain anchored across the Southeast U.S. today, shifting slightly east into the western Atlantic allowing for moisture to gradually increase within south and southeasterly flow.
- A mostly dry day is expected for much of the state, however isolated showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breezes through the spine of the Peninsula this afternoon (15-40% chance of rain).
- A few of these storms could become locally strong and capable of producing lightning and locally heavy downpours.
- Fire weather conditions are expected to remain lower today due to relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds.
- However, ongoing drought and breezy easterly wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph along the East Coast of Florida will allow for locally sensitive to elevated conditions to develop throughout portions of the Peninsula this afternoon.
- Any thunderstorms could be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to middle 90s throughout the state.
- Tonight, any showers or thunderstorms throughout the Peninsula will linger into the evening before dissipating after dark (15-35% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail.
- Lows will only fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s statewide.
- Areas of patchy fog may develop throughout portions of the Big Bend and Northeast Florida by daybreak Sunday.
- A high risk for rip currentsis expected for East Coast beaches today with a moderate risk for Panhandle beaches.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 50 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,687 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 15th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Area of high pressure continues to build into the Southeast U.S., nosing into portions of North and Central Florida today.
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Drier air will filter into much of North and Central Florida this afternoon, with relative humidities falling tocritical thresholds (20-30%) along the I-10 corridor.
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This will encourage at leastsensitive wildfire conditionswithlocally elevated conditionspossible in areas that saw the least amount of rainfall earlier this week.
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Lingering moisture across interior South Florida will allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breezes this afternoon (20-30% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, alocally heavy downpouror two cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s throughout much of the state today. A fewmiddle 90scannot be ruled out in Southwest Florida.
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An isolated shower may linger across interior South Florida this evening before dissipating after sunset (15-20% chance of rain).
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Otherwise, clear and dry conditions will prevail overnight.
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Lows will dip into the middle 50s to lower 60s across much of North Florida with 70s in Central and South Florida. The Southeast Metro and Keys will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis expected for East Coast beaches today with amoderate risk for West Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 44 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,646 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
