RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 24th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level
EOC Activation Level: Level
Meteorological Summary:
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Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely be confined to the Peninsula today as a post-frontal environment characterized by unseasonably dry and “cool” air will limit rain chances to near-zero across North Florida today.
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Storm activity will be maximized across the Interior Peninsula (40-60% chance) as weak flow will allow sea breeze boundaries from both coasts to push inland and collide over the Central portions of the Peninsula.
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No organized risk of severe weather is expected across any of the Peninsula’s storms today, however as always, any routine summer-time thunderstorms may becomelocally strong to severecapable of producing frequent lightning and locally damaging gusts (40-60mph).
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Additionally, while no organized risk of flash flooding is currently expected, slow storm-motion under weak flow may lead to isolated instances ofnuisance flooding and ponding of water in urban and poor drainage locations.
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While most of North Florida will be dry today, the far Western Panhandle may be an exception to this.
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Model guidance is tracking the possibility of a semi-organized cluster of thunderstorms to develop over the South-Central U.S. and dive southeast later this afternoon/evening.
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As this complex pushes southeast towards our Western Panhandle counties, it will be experiencing an increasingly dry environment courtesy of last night’s frontal passage and thus will likely be weakening.
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The degree of weakening is quite uncertain at this time, with hi-res guidance depicting a range of possible outcomes from a complete dissipation to very-little weakening.
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Regardless, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked aMarginal (level 1 of 4)to Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Floodingtoday across our Western Panhandle counties to reflect the conditional risk of heavy rainfall overtop already saturated soils.
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While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with within our Florida Counties from this cluster of storms, these storms may still becomelocally strong to severe, being especially prone to strong downdrafts containing damaging wind gusts driven by the unseasonably dry column.
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High temperatures will range from the upper 80s tolower 90sacross North Florida, to thelower to middle 90s across the Peninsula.
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A notable gradient in afternoon high feels-like temperatures will be present across the state today, as dry air across North Florida will limit feels-like temperatures to themiddle to upper 90s.
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The Peninsula, where seasonably moist air is still present, will see afternoon high feels-like temperatures soar into thelower to middle 100stoday.
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Tonight, any lingering showers and thunderstorms across the Peninsula will dissipate or push offshore after dusk (25-40% chance of rain).
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A medium chance of rain (30-40%) remains across the Western Panhandle tonight, reflecting the preciously discussed possibility of an approaching overnight thunderstorm complex.
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Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide tonight.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis in effect for most Panhandle beaches today. A low risk persists for all other beaches statewide outside of a stretch ofmoderate risks across Northeast Florida.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 75 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 31,158 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 23rd, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A warm but clear start to the day throughout the Sunshine State will give way to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms later today.
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A cold front sagging southward into the Deep South will provide additional lift, in tandem with the sea breezes, for shower and thunderstorm development along the I-10 corridor this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain).
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A few storms may becomelocally strong to severe with frequent lightning, locally damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), andtorrential downpours the primary hazards.
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West to southwesterly winds will also increase ahead of this front across Northeast Florida, gustingupwards of 20-25 mph at times.
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Throughout the Peninsula, high pressure with pockets of Saharan air will filter drier air across the area today, limiting the overall thunderstorm coverage.
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However, a few isolated storms will be possible across East-Central Florida and interior South Florida, some of which could becomelocally strong (25-40% chance of rain).
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High temperatures will soar again into the upper 80s tomiddle 90s statewide this afternoon, with any cloud cover from storms keeping temperatures cooler.
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Heat indices will peak in themiddle to upper 100s throughout the Peninsula and a Heat Advisory is in effect for the Southeast Metro until 6 PM EDT.
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Tonight, any lingering showers and thunderstorms across Northeast Florida and the I-95 corridor will dissipate or push offshore after dusk (25-40% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide.
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Amoderatetohigh riskfor rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle beaches today.
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River Flood Warningsremain in effect for the Escambia River, Blackwater River, Shoal River, and Choctawhatchee River. Each is currently in or expected to crest intominor flood stage.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 62 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 28,970 acres.
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Tropical cyclone activity isnot expectedduring the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 22nd, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Drier air will begin to filter into the state today as area of high pressure builds across the western Atlantic, nosing into South Florida and the southern Gulf.
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As such, afternoon sea breeze activity will be more isolated to scattered in nature today across the state (25-50% chance of rain). The focus for afternoon activity is expected to be across the Big Bend and interior Southwest Florida.
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Any thunderstorm activity could becomelocally strong and capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andtorrential downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1” for most locations, however locally higher totalsupwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rain.
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High temperatures will reach into the upper 80s tomiddle 90s statewide. Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures willreach or exceed 100-degrees across much of the state.
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The hottest conditions are expected throughout the Peninsula where localized areas will see heat indices in the middle to upper 100s. Heat Advisories may be issued later this afternoon should conditions warrant.
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Tonight, any shower or thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening before dissipating or pushing offshore (15-30% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
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Areas ofpatchy fog cannot be ruled out across interior Northeast Florida by daybreak Tuesday.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches today.
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River Flood Warningsremain in effect for the Escambia River, Blackwater River, and Shoal River. Each is currently in or expected to crest intominor flood stageearly this week before diminishing to Action Stage by mid-week.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 44 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 27,564 acres.
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Tropical cyclone activity isnot expectedduring the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 21st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Rinse-and-repeat for today’s weather pattern as a largely similar distribution of showers and thunderstorms to yesterday looks to develop across the state.
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Today’s activity across the Florida Panhandle will be widespread (60-80% chance of rain) with a nearly stationary frontal boundary still positioned over the Deep South.
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Contrary to typical summer-time patterns, storm activity will likely peak in the late-morning to early-afternoon hours before the front’s parent upper-level trough begins pulling away from the state later this afternoon, reducing convective coverage.
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Current radar imagery is already tracking scattered semi-organized clusters of eastward-moving thunderstorms across portions of the Western and Central Panhandle this morning.
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This activity will continue to spread eastward this morning and expand in coverage and intensity as daytime heating increases.
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Forecast rainfall accumulations across the Panhandle are generally between 1-2”, however, given highly sensitive soils due to last week’s flash floodings, aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is current outlooked across the entire Florida Panhandle.
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A more seasonable pattern of afternoon showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Florida Peninsula.
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Prevailing Southwesterly/Westerly flow will focus activity to the eastern half of the Peninsula this afternoon, where a medium chance (40-70%) of rain is expected.
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Although there is no organized risk for severe weather with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a fewlocally strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) being the primary hazards.
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Early-morning cloud coverage and showers and storms will limit daytime high temperatures across North Florida to the upper 80s today.
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Elsewhere across the Peninsula, afternoon high temperatures will climb into thelower to middle 90s.
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Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures willreach the lower to middle 100-degrees throughout the Peninsula, though they are expected to remain just below heat advisory criteria.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity will quickly dissipate after sunset today, with only and isolated chance (15-30%) chance for a lingering thunderstorm or two across the I-95 Corridor and across North Florida.
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All activity should dissipate or move offshore by midnight.
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Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis in effect for all Panhandle beaches. Diminishing surface flow yields a low risk for rip currents for all other Florida beaches.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 43 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 25,908 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 20, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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- The nearly stationary frontal boundary draped across the Deep South will encourage additional rounds of scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop throughout much of North Florida later this morning and afternoon, focused especially along and near the I-10 corridor (75-90% chance of rain).
- Although much of the activity today will lack the vigor from previous days, a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is still outlooked given flash flood thresholds remain lower from previous days of heavy rain.
- Rainfall amounts will generally add up to 1-2” in areas that do see the heaviest activity, though locally higher totals cannot be ruled out.
- Throughout the Peninsula, the West Coast sea breeze will begin to push inland as the East Coast sea breeze remains pinned near the coast. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop across the Peninsula this morning along the West Coast sea breeze, trekking eastward towards the I-95 corridor throughout the day (50-75% chance of rain).
- Thunderstorm activity is expected to be highest in coverage along the East Coast where the sea breezes will eventually collide; A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked here where torrential downpours may lead to instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
- Although there is no organized risk for severe weather with any of this thunderstorm activity statewide today, a few locally strong to severe storms cannot be ruled out with frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph) the primary hazards.
- High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide today.
- Combined with the humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach or exceed 100-degrees throughout the Peninsula.
- A Heat Advisory is in effect for the southern tip of the Peninsula (Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties) where heat indices will be greatest (106 to 109-degrees).
- Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the state will largely begin to dissipate or push offshore after dark. Some lingering activity is possible until midnight, especially along the I-95 corridor (25-45% chance of rain).
- Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
- River Flood Warnings remain in effect for the Perdido River, Escambia River, Big Coldwater Creek, Blackwater River, Yellow River, and Shoal River. Each is expected to crest into minor flood stage this weekend or early next week, except the Blackwater River now expected to crest into moderate flood stage tomorrow.
- A high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk is outlooked for Space and Treasure Coast beaches.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 38 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 24,727 acres.
- Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
