RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 27th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms ongoing along the Emerald Coast and along West Florida will set the stage for another active summer weather pattern across the Sunshine State.
- Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop through the afternoon hours, with help from the daily sea breeze and daytime heating (50-80% chance of rain).
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather outlooked as any strong to severe thunderstorm will be capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), very frequent lightning, instances of small hail, and heavy rainfall rates.
- An isolated, brief tornado cannot be ruled out this afternoon where the sea breeze boundaries collide.
- Torrential downpours may produce localized pockets of flash flooding and ponding water; there is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding for the Florida Panhandle and Southeast Florida Coast.
- Expect heat index values to reach the triple digits (99 to 102-degrees)across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula prior to any rain relief this afternoon.
- A slight uptick in wildfire activity was noted over the past 24 hours; low wildfire concerns continue nearly statewide today with the risk for frequent lightning strikes and erratic winds within thunderstorm activity.
- An elevated risk of rip currents can be expected along Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is outlooking a low (20%) chance of development over the Bay of Campeche during the next 7 days; slow to gradual development of an area of low pressure is possible should the system remain offshore the coast of Mexico. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 26, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms ongoing along the Florida Big Bend and South Florida coastlines will gradually move offshore and subside mid-morning, setting the stage for another active summertime day.
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Numerous to widespread shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon statewide, away from Northeast Florida (60-85% chance of rain).
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Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatheroutlooked across the Sunshine State; locally damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), very frequent lightning, instances of small hail, and heavy rainfall rates likely.
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Thunderstorm coverage and intensity will maximize during the peak heating hours of the day between 3:00 PM EDT/2:00 PM CDT and 9:00 PM EDT/8:00 PM CDT.
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Torrential downpours may produce localized pockets offlash flooding and ponding water, especially for any urban or low-lying/poor drainage area.
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Heat index valuesreach thetriple digits (99 to 103-degrees)across North and West Florida prior to any rain relief this afternoon.
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Anelevated risk of rip currentscontinues for most Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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Tropical development is not expected across the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for [[Current Date]]
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A shift away from the “routine” summer weather pattern expected for North Florida today, courtesy of an upper-level disturbance migrating westward to the Sunshine State.
- Thunderstorms develop late this afternoon and evening (35-45% chance of rain), becoming increasingly numerous from northeast to southwest tonight into early Thursday morning (40-60% chance of rain).
- Ingredients are supportive for more organized severe weather, and there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across North Florida to the I-10/I-75 interchange; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5)extends south to the I-4 corridor.
- Embedded damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), frequent lightning, flooding rainfall rates, and instances of large hail (1-1.5” in diameter, or quarter to ping pong ball size) possible.
- Computer model guidance this morning has hinted at a more organized cluster of thunderstorms moving southwestward from the Mid Atlantic states to North Florida late this evening into Thursday morning.
- Trends within the guidance will be monitored through the day regarding the development and evolution of this thunderstorm activity.
- Elsewhere, shower and thunderstorms will become increasingly numerous through the afternoon hours (60-80% chance of rain), with a few strong to locally severe thunderstorms
- Triple digit heat indices (99 to 105-degrees) can be expected across North and West Florida, with a few Florida Panhandle locations meeting and/or exceeding Heat Advisory criteria (105 to 110-degrees) for brief periods this afternoon.
- An elevated risk of rip currents can be expected for Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches, high risk conditions continue along Southeast Florida Coast.
- Tropical development is not expected in the Atlantic basin during the next 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 24th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Similar conditions to yesterday can be expected as an expansive areas of high pressure over the eastern U.S. dominates.
- The Atlantic sea breeze will continue to out win the Gulf sea breeze leading to the greatest rain chances across West and South Florida later in the day.
- Slightly drier conditions will continue to lead to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon hours along the sea breeze (20-60% chance of rain).
- A brief strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out along the sea breeze collisions bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours locally.
- Hot conditions can be expected this afternoon with high temperatures will into the 90s, with portions of the Florida Panhandle reaching the 100-degree mark.
- Feels-like temperatures will reach the upper 90s along the East Coast with the help of onshore winds, while the rest of the state can anticipate values in the triple digits (100-108-degrees).
- Areas locally along the Panhandle could see a brief Heat Advisory or two this afternoon, if conditions warrant.
- Showers and thunderstorms will dissipate from east to west late in the evening hours before mostly dry conditions return overnight.
- A few brief showers may linger along the Atlantic Coast overnight with the nearby Gulf Stream (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s which may give way to little relief from daytime heat and humidity.
- East Coast beaches will continue to see a moderate to high risk for rip currents with brisk onshore winds. Panhandle beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has decreased chances (medium-50%) for Invest 90L over the central subtropical Atlantic as a small area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms have redeveloped on the north-side of the low pressure located about 700 miles east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental conditions are marginally favorable, and further resurgence of the thunderstorm activity could still result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm. By later today, the low is expected to encounter more hostile environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward at 15-20 mph while remaining over the central Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 23rd, 2025.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Some drier air will filter into the state courtesy of high pressure over the eastern U.S. keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated to scattered compared to the last few days.
- The Atlantic sea breeze will push further inland compared to the Gulf sea breeze, allowing for shower and thunderstorm coverage to be greatest across West and South Florida (40-70% chance of rain).
- Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
- Hot conditions will continue to build each day with high temperatures this afternoon reaching the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state.
- Portions of the Panhandle could see high temperatures approaching the upper 90s.
- Feels-like temperatures will continue to reach the upper 90s to triple digits (100-106-degrees) by the early to mid-afternoon hours throughout the state.
- Areas locally across the Panhandle could see feels-like temperatures briefly reach Heat Advisory criteria this afternoon.
- Showers and thunderstorms will drift offshore and dissipate heading into the late evening hours as the sea breeze shifts offshore as well.
- A few brief showers or rumbles of thunder may linger near the coast overnight, especially along the Atlantic Coast with the nearby Gulf Stream (15-40% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will continue to remain in the middle to upper 70s and lower 80s overnight.
- Atlantic beaches can expect a moderate to high risk for rip currents to persist with breezy onshore winds along the coast. Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk.
- The NHC is outlooking a high (70%) chance of development for Invest 90L over the Central Subtropical Atlantic as showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization with an area of low pressure located about 500 miles east of Bermuda. While environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, a small increase in organization and persistence of shower and thunderstorm activity is likely to result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression or storm, as soon as today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable conditions, ending its opportunity for further development. Regardless of development, this system is forecast to move northeastward at 5-10 mph, remaining over the central Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
