RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 17, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Yet another wet and unsettled day is expected across the Florida Panhandle as tropical moisture associated with Potential Tropical Cyclone ONE is pulled across these areas.
- Like yesterday, numerous and repeated rounds of generally east-northeastward moving showers and thunderstorms are anticipated across nearly the entire day.
- High rain chances (70-90%) are outlooked across much of the Panhandle today as a result.
- Current radar imagery is already tracking scattered showers and storms across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida this morning, with coverage and intensity only expected to increase in the daylight hours.
- Heavy rainfalls already observed in recent days have lowered 1-hr flash flood guidance values across much of the SE U.S..
- Given these factors, the Weather Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding within the Western Panhandle and a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) within the Central and Eastern Panhandle regions and portions of Northeast Florida.
- Here, repeated rounds of locally heavy downpours over already saturated soils may lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
- Isolated instances of flash flooding cannot be ruled out, especially in the Western Panhandle.
- Rainfall amounts will generally add up to near 1-3” for most locations.
- However, locally higher amounts upwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out in areas that see multiple rounds of heavy downpours.
- Elsewhere in the state, slow-moving sea breeze showers and storms will develop this afternoon along the I-95 corridor (30-50% chance of rain).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across Southeast Florida for isolated instances of urban flooding and ponding of water in areas that see locally higher rainfall amounts.
- Highs will struggle to climb out of the middle to upper 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to cloud cover and rainfall.
- Highs will soar into the lower to middle 90s elsewhere statewide.
- Peak afternoon heat indices will top out in the lower to middle 100s throughout the Peninsula and a Heat Advisory is in effect until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for the Miami/Fort Lauderdale metro region.
- Tonight, some lingering showers and storms may remain across the Panhandle (40-65%), although with generally less coverage than last night.
- Any lingering activity along the I-95 corridor will dissipate or move offshore by midnight (15-30% chance of rain).
- Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents are expected for all Panhandle beaches today. A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for West-Central and East-Central beaches, with low risks for all other beaches.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 50 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 12,600 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 16th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
Another unsettled day is expected throughout North Florida as a nearly stationary frontal boundary north of the region allows ample tropical moisture to pool across the area.
-
This feature, combined with a passing upper-level disturbance, will aid in rounds of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms spreading west to east along the I-10 corridor today (55-85% chance of rain).
-
The greatest coverage in rainfall is expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend where aSlight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked.
-
Repeated rounds oflocally heavy downpours on saturated soils may lead to instances offlooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.Isolated instances offlash flooding cannot be ruled out.
-
AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is also outlooked across all North Florida today; Frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and a brief isolated tornado are the primary hazards.
-
Slow-moving sea breeze showers and storms will develop this afternoon along the I-95 corridor (40-60% chance of rain); AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across coastal Southeast Florida for isolated instances ofurban flooding and ponding of water.
-
Rainfall amounts are expected to be highest across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, generally amounting to near 1-2” for most locations. Locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
-
Highs will struggle to climb out of the middle to upper 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend due to cloud cover and rainfall. Highs will reach into thelower to middle 90s elsewhere statewide.
-
Peak afternoon heat indices will top out in thelower to middle 100s throughout the Peninsula; AHeat Advisory is in effect until 6 PM EDT this afternoon for the Miami metro region.
-
Tonight, the stalled frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. will encourage additional rounds of showers and embedded storms across North Florida (60-80% chance of rain).
-
Any lingering activity along the I-95 corridor will dissipate or move offshore by midnight (15-30% chance of rain).
-
Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
-
Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle, Space Coast, Treasure Coast, and Sun Coast beaches today. A localhigh risk exists for Gulf County beaches.
-
ACoastal Flood Statementis in effect for Mainland Monroe County for isolated minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide this afternoon.
-
From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
-
Northwestern Gulf:A broad area of low pressure located over south Texas is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The system is forecast to move northeastward along the Texas coast and could emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America later today or tonight. Environmental conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for the formation of a short-lived tropical storm late today or on Wednesday, especially if the system moves far enough offshore.This system poses no direct threat to Florida. However, periods of heavy rainfall will continue daily across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this week which may lead to isolated instances of flash, urban, and river flooding.
-
Formation chance through 48 hours…medium… 60%
-
Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, June 15th.2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
A frontal boundary draped across the Southeast U.S., combined with the afternoon sea breezes, will aid in a bit higher coverage of showers and thunderstorms along and north of the I-10 corridor today (75-90% chance of rain).
-
The West and East Coast sea breezes will collide near the I-95 corridor this afternoon where additional scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected (50-75% chance of rain).
-
Any thunderstorm activity today could become locally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
-
AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the I-10 and I-95 corridors where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall may lead toflooding and ponding of water, especially in the more susceptible urban and poor-drainage locations.
-
Rainfall totals will generally amount to 1-2” for most locations, however locally higher amountsupwards of 3-4” cannot be ruled out.
-
High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s tomiddle 90s statewide. With increasing humidity, afternoon feels-like temperatures will reach near or above 100-degrees throughout much of the state.
-
The highest heat indices are expected across Northeast Florida and along the I-95 corridor (103 to 108-degrees).
-
AHeat Advisory is in effect for the Miami metro region this afternoon.
-
Tonight, the frontal boundary over the Southeast U.S. will encourage additional rounds of showers and embedded storms across the western Panhandle (40-60% chance of rain).
-
Any lingering activity along the I-10 and I-95 corridors will dissipate or move offshore by midnight (35-55% chance of rain).
-
Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide overnight.
-
Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle beaches. Treasure Coast and Space Coast beaches can also expect amoderate risk.
-
ACoastal Flood Statementis in effect for coastal Collier County, Mainland Monroe County, and the Lower Florida Keys for isolated minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide this afternoon.
-
From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
-
Northwestern Gulf:A broad area of low pressure located over northeastern Mexico continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Development is not expected during the next day or so while the low remains inland and drifts generally northward over northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. The system is then forecast to move northeastward and could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf of America late Tuesday or Wednesday, where environmental conditions may support some development around midweek. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, heavy rainfall, flash flooding and gusty winds are possible across portions of eastern and southern Texas and Louisiana this week.
-
Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 20%.
-
Formation chance through 7 days…low…30%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, June 14th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
Yet another day of oppressive heat and humidity is expected today across much of the state.
-
AHeat Advisory is once again in effect throughout the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle this afternoon until 6 PM EDT where daytime high temperatures soaring into themiddle to upper 90s will bring heat indices into themiddle to upper 100s.
-
Throughout the rest of the state, highs are expected to reach into the lower tomiddle 90s with feels-like temperatures just below heat advisory criteria in theupper 90s tomiddle 100s.
-
A very similar distribution of afternoon showers and storms to yesterday is expected today.
-
The richly moist airmass overtop the state promoting the hot and humid conditions will also result in scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout much of the Peninsula and Big Bend this afternoon (50-70% chance of rain).
-
The highest coverage of storms will likely be within the Eastern Panhandle and Northeast Florida where the greatest moisture exists.
-
A secondary maximum of coverage of afternoon storm coverage is expected within interior Southeast Florida (40-60% chance of rain).
-
Typical sea-breeze interactions and eventual outflow boundary collisions are expected to be the primary forcing mechanism for today’s activity.
-
The majority of today’s activity will be sub-severe, but there is a chance for somelocally strong storms capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
-
Portions of extreme northern Nassau County are within aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatherthis afternoon where the greatest chance for damaging thunderstorm gusts exists.
-
Additionally, this activity is expected to be slow-moving with embeddedlocally heavy downpourswhich may lead to instances ofnuisance flooding andponding of water in urban and poor drainage locations.
-
AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked throughout the East Coast where recent heavy rainfalls makes these areas especially vulnerable to flash flooding.
-
Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening hours, especially across the East Coast, before dissipating around midnight (25-50% chance of rain).
-
Lows will only fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s tonight, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
-
Onshore winds will increase along the Panhandle coast today where a moderate tohigh risk for rip currents is expected for all beaches. A moderate risk persists for most East Coast beaches as well.
-
According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 52 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,665 acres
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 13th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
-
The heat and humidity will headline the day today throughout much of the state as increasing moisture leads tohot and muggyconditions.
-
AHeat Advisoryis in effect throughout the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle this afternoon until 6 PM EDT where daytime high temperatures soaring into themiddle to upper 90swill bring heat indices into themiddle to upper 100s.
-
Throughout the rest of the state, highs are expected to reach into thelower tomiddle 90s with feels-like temperatures in theupper 90stomiddle 100s, just below heat advisory criteria.
-
Plentiful tropical moisture pooling across the state combined with the afternoon sea breezes will promote scattered to widespread shower and thunderstorm activity throughout much of the Peninsula and interior Big Bend this afternoon (55-80% chance of rain).
-
Any thunderstorm throughout the state this afternoon could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
-
Additionally, this activity is expected to be slow-moving with embeddedlocally heavy downpourswhich may lead to instances ofnuisance floodingandponding of waterin urban and poor drainage locations.
-
AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingis outlooked throughout the Peninsula to highlight this threat.
-
Tonight, shower and thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening hours, especially across the interior Peninsula, before dissipating around midnight (25-50% chance of rain).
-
Lows will only fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s tonight, bringing little relief from the daytime heat.
-
Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and most East Coast beaches today.
-
From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
-
Southwestern Gulf:A broad area of low pressure just offshore of eastern Mexico continues to produce some shower and thunderstorm activity. While this system has become better organized since yesterday, marginal environmental conditions will probably prevent significant development before the low moves inland over eastern Mexico by Sunday. The system could re-emerge over the northwestern Gulf on Tuesday or Wednesday while interacting with a frontal boundary, but conditions there are also expected to be only marginally conducive for development.
-
Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%.
-
Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
