RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, December 4, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the western Panhandle as southwesterly flow ushers in abundant tropical moisture ahead of the next approaching frontal system.
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Scattered to widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms will slide eastward across the remainder of the Panhandle this afternoon (55-90% chance of rain), with isolated activity spreading eastward towards Northeast Florida this evening and early tonight (15-30% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding,locally heavy rainfall may lead to some instances ofnuisance flooding across the western Panhandle, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
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A few embedded thunderstorms could belocally strong and capable ofheavy downpours and lightning.
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Rainfall totals will generally remain below 1" across the Western Panhandle, thoughlocally higher amountsupwards of 2-3" cannot be ruled out in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
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Relative humidities willapproach critical thresholds (35-40% RH values) across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida early this afternoon which may lead tolocally sensitive wildfire conditions given the ongoing severe drought.
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Shower activity may subside across the Panhandle overnight, though a few isolated to widely scattered showers will still linger (40-60% chance of rain) before another round of activity develops towards daybreak Friday morning across the western Panhandle (75-90% chance of rain).
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Across Central and South Florida, high pressure and dry conditions will continue to prevail.
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High temperatures will remain the warmest across the central and southern tiers of the state reaching the middle 70s to lower 80s.
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Cloud cover and rainfall will keep temperatures much cooler across the Panhandle today, only reaching the 50s.
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Low temperatures will remain the coolest over the Panhandle overnight, hovering in the middle 40s to lower 50s as the shower activity lingers.
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Lows will dip into the upper 50s to lower 60s across Northeast and Central Florida, with coastal Southeast Florida only reaching the lower 70s.
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There is amoderate risk for rip currentsfor all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, December 3, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Sunshine will return across the state as cloud cover burns off this morning and into the early afternoon hours as high pressure moves over the Southeast U.S..
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Yesterday's cold front will continue to push offshore from South Florida and the Keys today allowing for a near-zero chance of rain to return.
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Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditionswill persist across North Florida as dry conditions return and yesterday's rainfall was minimal over drought stricken areas.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 50s to middle 60s across North Florida, upper 60s and 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
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High pressure will shift closer towards the state and weaken overnight keeping mostly dry conditions in place.
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A few light showers may drift back into the western Panhandle near sunrise with the next frontal system approaching (15-25% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into theupper 30s to middle 40s across North Florida, upper 40s to middle 50s across Central Florida and upper 50s to upper 60s across South Florida.
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Feels-like temperaturesnear sunrise Thursday morning will fall into thelower to middle 30sfor the Panhandle andmiddle toupper 30salong the western Big Bend.
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Northerly to northwesterly winds and ocean swells of 1-3' will lead to amoderate risk for rip currentsacross the beaches statewide.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, December 2, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Widespread rainfall and embedded thunderstorms continues this morning across the Big Bend ahead of a cold front, with scattered showers further out ahead over Northeast Florida.
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This shower and embedded thunderstorm activity will continue to push eastward across North and Central Florida today with the cold front (50-80% chance of rain).
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Through the morning and afternoon hoursembedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible throughout the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley -Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
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Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing lightning, damaging wind gusts (40-60 mph), an isolated tornado or two and locally heavy rainfall.
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There is no organized risk for flash flooding today as the rainfall will be very beneficial to help with ongoing drought conditions and dry soils.
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Rainfall totals upwards of 1" are possible throughout the day for much of the Big Bend, Northeast and Central Florida.
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Once the center low pressure moves further northeast later today towards the Carolina's, the cold front will push through the Peninsula and weaken keeping shower activity more isolated to scattered in nature (25-55% chance of rain).
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Behind the cold front breezier winds will develop as high pressure shifts eastward leading towind gusts of 15-25 mph across North and Central Florida this afternoon.
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High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 70s across North Florida, lower 80s across Central Florida and lower to middle 80s across South Florida.
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Drier conditions will filter into the state behind the cold front as it pushes offshore from South Florida overnight; however, a few light sprinkles or brief showers along the front may be possible (15-20% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into the30s along the Panhandle and 40s to lower 50s for the Big Bend and rest of North Florida, middle 50s to middle 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
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Somepatchy frost may be possible early Tuesday in shady spots along the northwestern Panhandle where temperatures approach near freezing.
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Feels-like temperatures (wind chills) will dip into thelower to middle 30sacross the Panhandle and western Big Bend andupper 30s to lower 40s across the Central Big Bend by sunrise.
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Amoderate to high risk for rip currentspersist along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today due to breezy winds andswells of 2-4'.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, December 1, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Brief showers will be possible throughout the day along the Panhandle as high pressure shifts eastward with an approaching frontal system approaching from the west.
- These showers should be isolated in nature throughout the daytime hours as the frontal system encroaches, but will likely become more scattered to widespread late this afternoon and heading into the evening hours (30-60% chance of rain).
- Onshore winds will help to spark isolated showers along the eastern coastline today, which then may drift inland across the Peninsula this afternoon (15-35% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will be in the upper 60s to middle 70s across North Florida given increased rain chances beginning later in the day and cloud cover.
- Central and South Florida will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s this afternoon.
- The low pressure system will move along the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast U.S. later today and overnight, with its warm front pushing northward from the gulf waters.
- This will help to bring scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms onshore and inland across the Panhandle, then spread into the Big Bend overnight (75-near 100% chance of rain).
- The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along the coastal Panhandle as isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible.
- Damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), an isolated tornado or two and locally heavy rainfall may accompany any organized thunderstorm activity overnight and into early Tuesday morning.
- This system will bring plentiful rainfall over the Panhandle; however, the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding for the eastern Panhandle where the heaviest rainfall is possible.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected along the Panhandle, with locally higher rainfall totals of 3-4" possible with heavier rainfall activity.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, middle to upper 60s across Central Florida and lower to middle 70s across South Florida.
- Patchy fog will be possible late Monday night and into the early morning hours on Tuesday across West-Central and South Florida.
- Choppy surf of 2-4' and onshore winds will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
- The 2025 Atlantic Hurricane Season has officially come to an end as of December 1st. The season fell within the predicted ranges of named storms, hurricanes and major hurricanes with 13 named storms, 5 of those becoming hurricanes and 4 of these becoming major hurricanes. 2025 tied the record for the second most category 5 hurricanes on record in a single season, which was 3, only trailing the 2005 season which had 4.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, November 30, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Coastal showers have already developed this morning near the Panhandle and across South Florida this morning.
- High pressure over the eastern U.S. will shift eastward off the coast ahead of the next frontal system approaches.
- Easterly to southeasterly winds will help to bring moisture back across the state, bringing a chance for showers along the Panhandle and along the I-95 corridor this afternoon and evening as a warm front lifts northward (15-35% chance of rain).
- There may be a chance for an embedded thunderstorm or two along the coast of the Panhandle as well as across South Florida this afternoon.
- Breezy wind gusts of 20-25 mph will continue along portions of South Florida and the Keys today, and these winds will be weaker compared to yesterday.
- For the rest of the state, mostly dry and sunny conditions can be expected to continue.
- High temperatures this afternoon will return to the 70s across North Florida and lower 80s across Central and South Florida. Portions of West-Central Florida will reach the middle 80s this afternoon.
- Shower activity will linger through the evening hours before dissipating nearly statewide overnight despite the frontal boundary approaching.
- A few light sprinkles or showers might try to develop near sunrise across the Big Bend (10-20% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida, lower to middle 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches.
- Wave heights will slowly decline throughout the day along the Atlantic Coast but will still reach 4-6’ this morning through the afternoon.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
