RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 7, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure along the eastern U.S. will help bring drier conditions for much of North Florida helping to keep shower activity isolated compared to the last few days (15-25% chance of rain).
- Much of the activity will drift inland from adjacent coastal waters with the help of ongoing breezy winds.
- Further south into the Peninsula, the unsettled weather pattern will continue with scattered showers and thunderstorms.
- Activity has been moving onshore along the eastern coastline this morning, and this will continue throughout the day and become more widespread with the help of daytime heating (60-80% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Southeast Florida coast where localized flash flooding will be possible with repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms moving onshore.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" are anticipated, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible.
- Ongoing elevated coastal flooding may flow runoff from rainfall and lead to additional ponding of water, especially closer towards the coast.
- Breezy northeasterly to easterly winds will persist along much of the Florida East Coast leading to wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times.
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the state, with portions of West Florida reaching near 90-degrees.
- Heat index valuesacross West and South Florida will reach the middle to upper 90s, and a couple spots reaching 100-degrees cannot be ruled out.
- Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue into the evening hours and drift offshore overnight; however, lingering onshore winds along the eastern coastline will continue to bring showers towards the coast across South Florida (25-50% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s and lower 80s across South Florida.
- A high risk for rip currents persists across all East Coast beaches and numerous Panhandle beaches due to breezy onshore winds and large ocean swells.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect along portions of East-Central Florida remain in effect through this evening, especially with wave heights of 4-7' continuing.
- Elevated King Tides, onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding along the East Coast, South Florida and within the St. Johns River.
- Coastal Flood Warnings, Advisories and Statements remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has risen into moderate flood stage given the backed-up water levels within the river basin.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Showers and thunderstorms are gradually becoming better organized in association with an area of low pressure, Invest 95L, located a little more than 1000 miles east of the Windward Islands. If these trends continue, advisories will likely be initiated later today. This system is expected to move quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, and then near or north of the northern Leeward Islands on Thursday and Friday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time. Formation chances are high (90%) for the next 48 hours and 7 days.
- An upper-level disturbance located over the Yucatan Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is expected to emerge over the Bay of Campeche later today, and some slow development is possible before it moves inland over southern Mexico late Wednesday or early Thursday. This system poses no threat to Florida. Formation chances are low (10%) through the next 48 hours and 7 days.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 6, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Unsettled weather will continue across the state today with scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms developing throughout the day.
- Isolated showers are already moving onshore and inland along portions of the East Coast, and these will continue throughout the day and become more scattered to widespread (50-75% chance of rain).
- With repeated rounds of downpours over the last of several days, there is an increased risk for localized flash flooding and ponding of water along the I-95 corridor and the Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4" possible following repeated downpours.
- Flood Watches remain in effect along East-Central Florida through this evening.
- Breezy winds will continue along portions of the Northeast and East-Central Florida coasts this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph at times.
- High temperatures this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 80s throughout the state.
- Heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s throughout the western Peninsula.
- Isolated to scattered showers should continue throughout the evening and into the overnight hours, gradually dissipating and becoming sparse overnight.
- Easterly winds will continue to bring isolated showers onshore and inland throughout the eastern Peninsula overnight (25-45% chance of rain).
- Instances of patchy fog will be possible early Tuesday morning across portions of the Big Bend and Suwannee Valley.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- Large long-period ocean swells and breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- High Surf Advisoriesremain in effect through Tuesday evening along much of the East Coast for wave heights upwards of 5-8' possible.
- Elevated King Tides, wave run-up and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor to moderate coastal floodingfor the Florida East Coast and extending into South Florida and the Keys.
- Coastal Flood Warnings remain in place for the St. Johns River where significant coastal flooding is possible.
- Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements extend along the rest of the eastern coastline through South Florida and the Keys.
- The St. Johns River remains in moderate flood stage due to trapped tides and elevated waters preventing discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- A broad area of low pressure, Invest 95L, associated with a low-latitude tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next few days while it moves quickly west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching the northern Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 5, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- This morning widespread showers and embedded thunderstorms remain just offshore from the western Panhandle as a warm front remains situated over the eastern gulf waters and a weak area of non-tropical low pressure is along the north-central gulf waters.
- Throughout the morning and afternoon, as the weak area of low pressure slowly drifts northwestward towards Texas, these showers and embedded thunderstorms will move onshore bringing much needed rainfall along the Panhandle and into the Big Bend (40-60% chance of rain).
- Additional embedded showers and thunderstorms may develop with the help of daytime heat across the rest of the Panhandle and Big Bend.
- The rest of the state can anticipate a near repeat of the last couple of days as persistent onshore winds will help to bring moisture onshore leading to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms.
- The greatest chance will remain along the eastern half of the Peninsula, especially along the eastern coastline, as showers move onshore from the coastal waters (45-60% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has maintained a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along portions of East-Central Florida through today as repeated rounds of rainfall could lead to instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Flood Watches also remain in effect for portions of the I-95 corridor through early this next week.
- Generally, 1-2” can be expected today, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” possible.
- Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will continue across the state today, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph possible along the eastern coastline.
- Elevated winds and cloud cover will help to keep high temperatures in the 80s throughout the state, with western coastlines reaching near 90-degrees with a later start to shower and thunderstorm activity.
- Heat index values along the I-75 corridor and through South Florida will reach the middle to upper 90s this afternoon.
- Drier conditions should gradually return overnight throughout much of the state as shower and thunderstorm activity largely dissipates.
- persistent onshore winds along the western Panhandle and East Coast will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered showers onshore throughout the overnight hours (30-50% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to near 80-degrees for South Florida and the Keys.
- Large long-period ocean swells and breezy easterly to southeasterly winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- High Surf Advisories have been introduced along the western Panhandle for wave heights upwards of 4-6’ through late this evening.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect through Tuesday evening along much of the East Coast for wave heights upwards of 5-9' possible.
- Elevated King Tides, wave run-up and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor to moderate coastal flooding for the Florida East Coast and extending into South Florida and the Keys.
- Coastal Flood Warnings remain in place for the St. Johns River where significant coastal flooding is possible.
- Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements extend along the rest of the eastern coastline through South Florida and the Keys.
- The St. Johns River remains in moderate flood stage due to trapped tides and elevated waters preventing discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Atlantic (Invest 95L): A broad area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles south-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development of this system. A tropical depression is likely to form this week as the system moves quickly across the central tropical Atlantic, approaching portions of the Leeward Islands by the latter part of this week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chances through 48 hours…medium…40%.
- *Formation chances through 7 days…high…70%.
- North-Central Gulf: A weak area of low pressure located over the north-central Gulf is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms near the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, it will bring tropical moisture northward along the western Panhandle and could bring instances of locally heavy rainfall especially closer towards the coast.
- *Formation chances through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chances through 7 days…low…near 0%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 4th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. will continue to promote moist onshore flow over the Florida East Coast today.
- Widely scattered showers are already moving onshore across the eastern Peninsula this morning, and additional scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon during peak heating hours (50-60% chance of rain).
- A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the entire East Coast today for locally heavy rainfall and localized instances of flash flooding and ponding of water.
- A few locations along the East Coast have already seen multiple days of heavy rainfall, and any additional rainfall today could lead to an earlier onset to flooding.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of coastal East-Central Florida for possible flooding from excessive rainfall.
- The persistent onshore flow will continue to bring breezy conditions across much of the state, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible statewide.
- A few higher gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible along the I-95 corridor.
- Drier air further inland will inhibit greater shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the western Peninsula and Panhandle, though a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible (25-40% chance of rain).
- With ample cloud cover and breezy conditions, high temperatures will remain seasonable today, reaching the middle to upper 80s across much of the state.
- Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida may climb into the lower 90s this afternoon if cloud cover from any showers and thunderstorms remain out of the region.
- Heat index values will reach the lower to middle 90s for portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida this afternoon, with upper 80s to lower 90s expected elsewhere.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move onshore off the Atlantic across the East Coast through the evening and overnight hours (45-60% chance of rain).
- Mostly dry conditions are expected across the remainder of the state overnight.
- Low temperatures will reach the lower 70s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s for Central Florida, and middle to upper 70s for South Florida.
- Dangerous rip currents will persist along the Florida East Coast due to breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 5-9'.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for much of the East Coast through the weekend.
- A building ocean swell and breezy winds will also bring a high risk for rip currentsand elevated surf of 3-5' for most Panhandle beaches today. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for coastal Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, and Escambia Counties.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the entire Florida East Coast south to the Upper Keys as onshore winds, high surf, and the approaching full moon will lead to minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide.
- A Coastal Flood Warningis in effect for the tidal St. Johns River basin and coastal Northeast Florida for possible significant coastal floodingand water levels 1.5-2' above normally dry ground during high tide.
- Coastal Flood Statementsare in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys for minor saltwater flooding.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has returned to moderate flood stage given the trapped elevated waters within the basin and a River Flood Warning remains in effect.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave between the west coast of Africa and Cabo Verde Islands is producing a broad area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of the wave is possible over the next few days, and it could become a tropical depression by the middle to latter part of next week while moving across the central tropical Atlantic and approaching portions of the Leeward Islands.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low…near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... medium… 50%.
- Bahamas and Southern Florida: A weak area of low pressure located near the northwestern Bahamas continues to produce disorganized shower activity. This system is expected to drift west-northwestward across the northwestern Bahamas and toward southern Florida during the next day or two, however development is not expected due to strong upper-level winds. Heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding across portions of the east coast of Florida and the northwestern Bahamas during the next few days.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low… near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... low… near 0%.
- North-Central Gulf: A weak area of low pressure has formed over the north-central Gulf and is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms off the coasts of Louisiana, Mississippi, and Alabama. This system is expected to move slowly northwestward during the next day or two, reaching the coast of Texas by Monday. Development of this system is not expected due to strong upper-level winds.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low… near 0%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... low… near 0%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 3rd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- The high-pressure system over the eastern U.S. will continue to promote moist onshore flow over the Florida East Coast today.
- Widely scattered showers are already moving onshore across the eastern Peninsula this morning, and additional scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity will develop this afternoon (50-80% chance of rain).
- A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across the Treasure Coast with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding extending along the Gold and Space Coasts.
- A Flood Watch is in effect for much of coastal East-Central Florida for possible flooding from excessive rainfall.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2" are expected for most locations along the East Coast, with localized areas receiving upwards of 3-5".
- The persistent onshore flow will also bring breezy conditions across much of the state, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible statewide.
- A few higher gusts upwards of 30 mph will be possible along the I-95 corridor.
- Drier air further inland will inhibit greater shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon across the I-75 corridor, though a few isolated showers or thunderstorms are possible (25-40% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s across the state today with feels like temperatures not deviating much from the actual temperatures.
- Heat index values will reach the lower to middle 90s for portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida this afternoon.
- Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue to move onshore off the Atlantic across the East Coast through the evening and overnight hours (45-60% chance of rain).
- Mostly dry conditions are expected across the remainder of the state overnight.
- Low temperatures will reach the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s for Central Florida and middle to upper 70s for South Florida.
- Dangerous rip currents will persist along the Florida East Coast due to breezy onshore winds and elevated surf of 5-9'.
- High Surf Advisories remain in effect for much of the East Coast through the end of the week.
- A building ocean swell and breezy winds will also bring a high risk for rip currentsand elevated surf of 3-5' for most Panhandle beaches today.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued along the tidal St. Johns River, First Coast, and coastal Volusia County as onshore winds will trap elevated waters and lead to minor coastal flooding near high tide.
- A Coastal Flood Warninggoes into effect this evening through the weekend for possible significant coastal flooding.
- Coastal Flood Statements are in effect for coastal Southeast Florida and the Middle Florida Keys for minor saltwater flooding during or near times of high tide.
- The St. Johns River at Astor has returned to moderate flood stage given the trapped elevated waters within the basin and a River Flood Warning remains in effect.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is expected to move off the coast of Africa today. The wave is forecast to interact with another disturbance over the eastern tropical Atlantic and then move westward after that. Environmental conditions are expected to become conducive for some slow development of the system in a few days, and a tropical depression could form near or east of the Lesser Antilles by the end of next week.
- Formation chances through 48 hours... low... (near-0%).
- Formation chances through 7 days... medium... 40%.
- Southwestern Atlantic: A weak area of low pressure has formed near the central Bahamas along the remnants of a frontal boundary. This system is expected to meander near Florida and the Bahamas for the next several days. Strong upper-level winds are expected to prevent significant development of the low, however the combination of the disturbance with the broader remnant boundary are still expected to produce heavy rainfall across portions of Florida and the Bahamas through the weekend.
- Formation chances through 48 hours...low... 10%.
- Formation chances through 7 days... low... 10%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
