RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, January 25th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A complex and active weather day is on deck across the Sunshine State as a very strong cold front will race across the northern half of the state.
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Areas ofdense fogthis morning along East-Central and South Florida will slowly lift and dissipate this morning, especially as winds begin to increase ahead of an approaching cold front.
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This strong cold front is expected to bring a line of showers and thunderstorms across Panhandle late in the morning and near midday, then follow the I-10 corridor quickly throughout the rest of the daytime hours and into the evening (70-near 100% chance of rain).
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weatherextending from the Panhandle and through the Capital City, with aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5)through the upper Suwannee Valley asembedded strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible.
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The main hazards associated with thesestrong to severe thunderstormsinclude frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (55-65 mph), isolated embedded tornadoes and locally heavy rainfall.
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Organized flash flooding is not expected, but rainfall totals of 1-2" locally may lead toinstances of nuisance ponding of waterover low-lying or urban corridors.
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Breezy southerly to southeasterly winds can be expected to develop statewide reaching 10-15 mph across the Peninsula and 20-25 mph throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend outside of thunderstorm activity.
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On top of that windgusts will reach 15-25 mphstatewide, with stronger windgusts of 25-40 mphacross the Panhandle and Big Bend.
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Wind Advisorieswill go into effect late this morning along the Panhandle for those elevatedwinds of 15-25 mph and wind gusts upwards of 35-45 mphthrough the early evening hours. Locally higher gusts cannot be ruled out.
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Shower chances extend across much of the state during the evening and overnight period as the cold front continues to push eastward bringing scattered activity with embedded thunderstorms across the Big Bend and towards the I-4 corridor through the overnight period (45-80% chance of rain).
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Across South Florida, enough moisture ahead of the front may be able to help create some isolated showers late in the overnight and into the early morning hours on Monday.
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Slightly lighter winds and elevated moisture may lead to instances ofpatchy fogdeveloping along Southwest Florida by the early morning hours on Monday.
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High temperatures will reach the 70s to lower 80s across North Florida this afternoon with well above normal temperatures in the 80s across Central and South Florida.
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Low temperatures will drop into themiddle to upper 20sfor the western Panhandle,30s across the eastern Panhandle and western Big Bend and 40s to middle 50s for the rest of North Florida.
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Cold air racing into the Panhandle and elevated winds will lead towind chillsdropping into theteens and20sacross the Panhandle and lower to middle 40s across the western Big Bend by sunrise Monday morning.
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AnExtreme Cold Warningwill go into effect overnight and continue through Monday morning forvery dangerous wind chills as low as 10-degrees expectedalong the far western Panhandle (Escambia, Santa Rosa and Okaloosa counties).
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Cold Weather Advisorieswill go into effect early Monday morning for the rest of the Panhandle and through the US-231 corridor forwind chills as low as 17-25-degrees.
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Central and South Florida will see low temperatures in the upper 50s to upper 60s and near 70-degrees.
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Ahigh risk for rip currents extends along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches due to breezy winds andelevated wave heights of 2-5' (locally 6-7').
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, January 24, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across East-Central Florida this morning and will slowly dissipate by mid-morning.
- With warmer temperatures expected, the sea breezes across South Florida will reawaken this afternoon and push inland, which may promote a few isolated to widely scattered showers to develop (15-30% chance of rain).
- While widespread activity is not expected, some of this activity could be locally strong, slow moving, and lead to localized nuisance flooding and ponding of water.
- Rainfall totals will remain meager for most locations, however localized totals in excess of 3" cannot be ruled out in areas that receive slow-moving heavy downpours.
- A few light coastal showers will remain pinned along the East Coast this afternoon as well, however activity is expected to remain confined to the coastal waters or east of the I-95 corridor (near 15% chance of rain).
- A few isolated showers may also develop across the far western Panhandle by the evening hours ahead of the next frontal system (20-30% chance of rain).
- Breezy winds with gusts upwards of 30 mph are possible this afternoon along the Northeast Florida coastline.
- Highs will climb into the middle 70s to lower 80s throughout Central and South Florida, while North Florida will be cooler with highs in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
- A few locations across South Florida could reach the middle to upper 80s this afternoon.
- Temperatures continue to moderate tonight, with lows in the middle 50s to lower 60s across North Florida and lower to upper 60s throughout Central and South Florida.
- A few showers may linger into the evening across South Florida, though will quickly dissipate before midnight (15-25% chance of rain).
- Scattered showers will begin to spread across the western Panhandle late this evening and overnight (40-60% chance of rain).
- Additional fog and low cloud development is expected by daybreak Sunday across the Big Bend, West-Central Florida, and Southwest Florida, some of which could be locally dense.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, January 23, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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ADense Fog Advisory will remain in effect until 10:00 AM EST for interior Southwest Florida wherelocally dense foghas developed this morning.
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Otherwise, a relatively dry and warm start to the weekend is expected today across the state.
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A weak upper-level disturbance may induce a few light showers over the western Panhandle this morning (25-35% chance of rain), however activity is expected to diminish through the morning.
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Similarly, a few showers, some of which could belocally strong, may drift along the Southeast Florida coast throughout the day (15-25% chance of rain).
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If any of these heavier showers do move onshore, a few locallyheavy downpours cannot be ruled out.
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Many locations will see little rainfall from this activity. However, local rainfall totalsupwards of 3"cannot be ruled out if any slow-moving heavy showers push inland.
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High temperatures will climb into the middle 70s to middle 80s for much of the state this afternoon, with upper 60s across the western Panhandle.
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A few brief sprinkles cannot be ruled out in these regions early this evening (15-20% chance of rain), with a dry night expected elsewhere.
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Low-level moisture and light winds will promote another night oflocally dense fog across West-Central and Southwest Florida andDense Fog Advisories may be issued if conditions warrant.
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Low temperatures will reach the lower to middle 50s across North Florida and upper 50s to lower 60s in South Florida. Coastal Southeast Florida will only reach the upper 60s to lower 70s.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, January 22, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Gradual warming trend continues across the Sunshine State, courtesy of an area of high pressure positioned between two frontal boundaries.
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Showers currently pinned along the Southeast Florida coastline increase in coverage and potentially intensity this afternoon (50-70% chance of rain).
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There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however,rainfall rateswill be the primary trend to monitor as shower and thunderstorm activity will be slow-moving.
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Minor street flooding and ponding water possible along and east of the I-95 corridor should heavier rainfall move onshore.
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Farther north, rain chances will gradually return to the western Florida Panhandle today (30-45% chance of rain), with a few rumbles of thunder possible.
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Lingering low-level moisture within today’s easterly flow may support the development offog and low cloudstonight; greatest potential for reduced visibilities across North Florida.
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Onshore flow and lingering elevated surf will yield amoderate tohigh risk of rip currentsalong the Florida East Coast,moderate riskconditions continue along the Florida Panhandle.
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Improving relative humidity values and calmer winds keep the overall wildfire threatlow statewide.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, January 21st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A near repeat of yesterday can be expected as high pressure continues to slowly shift eastward towards the Atlantic waters.
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Pleasant conditions with a mixture of sunshine and cloud cover can be expected throughout the day.
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Enough moisture from a frontal boundary to the south, as well as onshore winds, will help to bring a few brief showers along the Southeast Florida coastline and the Keys today (10-20% chance of rain).
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Lingering breezy wind gusts of 20-25 mph will persist along South Florida throughout the day before calming down this evening.
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High temperatures will to the middle 60s to middle 70s across the state this afternoon.
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A few brief sprinkles or showers may drift onshore this evening and overnight along the Treasure Coast and southward, but any activity will remain light (10-30% chance of rain).
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Some patchy fog may attempt to develop early Thursday morning along a portion of Northeast Florida.
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For the first time in several days, the entire state will be above freezing temperatures tonight.
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Low temperatures in the middle to upper 40s can be expected across North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and 60s to near 70-degrees across South Florida tonight.
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Elevated surf of 4-9'along the East Coast will create amoderate to high risk for rip currentsalong all beaches. Panhandle beaches will continue to see amoderate risk.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
