RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 29th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level2
EOC Activation Level: Level2
Meteorological Summary:
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The state of Florida is positioned between a large upper-level disturbance over the Northeast U.S. that is diving southeastward over the open Atlantic and a weak ridge axis to the south over the Western Caribbean. The resulting surface flow between these two features will generally be southwesterly to westerly across the state.
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This flow regime will favor inland Panhandle locations and the East Coast for today’s shower and thunderstorm activity.
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With the deeply moist tropical airmass still firmly overtop the state, there is ahigh (50-80%) chance of showers and storms for these locations.
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The East Coast is likely to see the greatest coverage and intensity of activity today as westerly flow will push the West Coast sea breeze inland where it may collide with the pinned East Coast sea breeze and promote enhanced thunderstorm growth.
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A fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph). Coastal Panhandle, West Coast, and Florida Keys locations will see the lowest chances of rain today (<30%).
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across North-Central Florida and the East Coast before eventually waning or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across the Western Panhandle, a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days, and across Northeast Florida corridor today.
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Any areas that receive multiple rounds ofheavy downpours ortraining thunderstorms could experienceflooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain in the upper 80 tolower 90sstatewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as high humidity values remain. Feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with a few isolated locations likelyapproaching or exceeding 100 degrees.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor overnight and towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Amoderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 57 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17900 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 28th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Yet another wet and rainy day is expected across the Sunshine State as rich moist flow around area of high pressure turns southwesterly out of the Gulf today.
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A few showers and thunderstorms are ongoing along the Central and South Florida coasts, and additional activity will develop throughout the Peninsula this afternoon as the sea breezes push inland (50-80% chance of rain).
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With southwesterly flow, the focus for activity will be across the interior Peninsula where the sea breezes collide, eventually pushing eastward towards the East Coast.
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across Southeast Florida where repeated rounds ofheavy downpours may lead tonuisance flooding andponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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A Marginal Risk is also outlooked across the Panhandle where a few rounds of showers and storms will develop along the Gulf sea breeze this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain).
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Any of this activity statewide could becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (30-50 mph).
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Rainfall totals will generally remain around 1-2”, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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Highs will reach the middle to upper 80s statewide today, withfeels-like temperatures approaching themiddle to upper 90s in Central and South Florida.
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Tonight, showers and storms will linger across East-Central and Southeast Florida before dissipating or pushing offshore around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out across the rest of the state (15-25% chance of rain).
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Lows will remain in the 70s to lower 80s statewide.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop along the I-10 corridor towards daybreak on Friday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 66 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,998 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, May 27th 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Enhanced southerly flow between the Atlantic ridge to our east and an upper-level disturbance to our west is continuing to bring a richly moist airmass over the state.
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A swath of showers and thunderstorms embedded in this flow are currently pushing onshore into the Western Panhandle – a regions that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated incidences of flash flooding over the past few days.
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Continued rounds of showers and storms are expected for the Panhandle, where a high (70-80%) chance of rain is expected for the rest of the day.
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The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Excessive Rainfall today for Panhandle counties west of Leon/Wakulla.
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Forecast rainfall amounts in the Panhandle should generally max out at around 1-2”, but some isolated areas of2-4” cannot be ruled out, especially within any training storms that develop.
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Elsewhere, the Central/Northern I-75 corridor will be another hotspot for rain chances today (40-60%).
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These storms will likely be scattered in nature and generally follow a more typical sea breeze driven regime. Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding with this activity, a fewlocally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.
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Any of today's storms could also becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Breezy southeasterly winds will develop along the East Coast today, with gustsupwards of 25 mph across East-Central and Southeast Florida.
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High temperatures will remain in the 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, withlower to middle 90s throughout the Peninsula.
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Feels-like temperatures will approach theupper 90s tonear 100-degreesin the Peninsula.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight along the I-75 corridor and across the Coastal Panhandle before eventually waning around midnight (50-70% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Patchy fog is not anticipated given abundant cloud cover and visibilities should remain generally near or above 3 miles.
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A moderate tohigh risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 66 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17880 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 26th 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A few showers are ongoing across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning amidst persistent deep moist southerly flow.
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This moist flow will continue today with additional rounds of northward moving showers and thunderstorms across the Panhandle and western Big Bend this afternoon (60-90% chance of rain).
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AMarginal toSlight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across the Panhandle and western Big Bend today for a few instances offlash flooding due to additional heavy rainfall over already saturated soils.
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AFlood Watch is also in effect until tonight for these areas.
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Rainfall amounts will measure 2-3” for most locations, though locally higher totalsupwards of 4-6” or more cannot be ruled out.
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Any of these storms could also becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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A sharp cutoff in rainfall is expected across the central and eastern Big Bend today where just a few isolated showers or storms are expected.
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Sea breeze showers and storms are expected to develop along the I-75 corridor this afternoon (40-60% chance of rain), with isolated activity throughout the remainder of the Peninsula (15-30% chance of rain).
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Breezy southeasterly winds will develop along the East Coast today, with gustsupwards of 25 mph across East-Central and Southeast Florida.
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Highs will remain in the 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, with lower tomiddle 90s throughout the Peninsula. Feels-like temperatures will approach theupper 90s tonear 100-degrees.
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Tonight, showers and storms will linger across the Panhandle and I-75 corridor before dissipating around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the 70s to lower 80s statewide.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. Most West-Central and Southwest Florida beaches will also see amoderate risk.
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TheShoal River near Crestviewhas reached Action Stage (bank-full) and is forecast to reachminor flood stage by tomorrow. Numerous other rivers and streams are in Action Stage throughout the western Panhandle due to recent heavy rainfall.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 84 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 19,294 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 25th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Panhandle this morning as an upper-level disturbance begins to pass just north of the area.
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This disturbance, paired with the sea breezes, will help to spark additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the Panhandle this afternoon (75-90% chance of rain).
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Activity will be more scattered in nature across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida this afternoon where deep southerly flow will still bring abundant moisture for activity to develop (45-60% chance of rain).
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked much of the Panhandle under aMarginaltoSlight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Floodingtoday for instances offlash flooding andponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Rounds of heavy downpours over saturated soils today could lead to flooding concerns. Rainfall amounts will generally add up to 1-2", though localized areas could seeupwards of 3-5".
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Any thunderstorm this afternoon could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Throughout Central and South Florida, drier air will filter into the area today bringing lesser coverage in activity compared to previous days. However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out especially along the I-75 corridor of West-Central and North-Central Florida this afternoon (25-40% chance of rain).
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Breezy east to southeasterly winds will continue along the East Coast today, with gustsupwards of 20-25 mphacross East-Central and Southeast Florida. A few gustsupwards of 30 mphcannot be ruled out for immediate beachfront locales.
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High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend where ample cloud cover will keep things cooler.
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Highs will reach thelower to middle 90sthroughout the Peninsula and Northeast Florida, with feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90stonear 100-degreesin Southwest Florida.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight over portions of West Central Florida and North Florida near the I-75 corridor before eventually waning around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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Storms may also continue through the night across the Panhandle where deep southerly flow will persist (40-60% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. A localizedmoderate riskalso exists for Southwest Florida beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 89 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 19,037 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
