RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 22, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy fog has developed over the Western Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises.
- High pressure over the Atlantic has continued its eastward march over the open Atlantic, now veering our surface flow to primarily out of the southeast today.
- For the peninsula, a largely rinse-and-repeat distribution of rain chances is expected today, with the highest chances once again in extreme Southwest Florida (30-50%) along . Additionally, high (70-90%) chances for rain are expected in the far Western Panhandle today as a series of upper-level disturbances are expected to swing through the region and provide a source of enhanced lift.
- While there is no organized risk of severe weather with any of today’s activity could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
- Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-3”, especially in the Western Panhandle if any corridors of training storms develop.
- The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for extreme western Escambia County today.
- Wildfire danger will remain low today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds gusting upwards of 20 mphare expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula and Western Panhandle.
- Any thunderstorms that develop may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
- High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida. Some localized areas may see feels-like temperatures that reach or exceed 100-degrees this afternoon.
- Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity over the peninsula will shortly dissipate after sunset. Rounds of scattered showers and storms may continue overnight for the Western Panhandle as upper-level disturbances continue to swing through the region.
- Some patchy fog may develop throughout the Western Florida Panhandle tonight given the abundant low-level moisture, although this will likely be highly dependent on how today and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms develop/evolve.
- Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
- A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 74 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,571 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 21st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Areas ofpatchy to locally dense fog have developed over the Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises.
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The highest chances for rain today will again be focused across Southwest Florida (40-60%) along any sea breeze boundaries.
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Winds subtly shifting out of the southeast today will also increase rain chances statewide, with the much of the I-75 corridor carrying a medium (30-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
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While there is no organized risk of severe weather or flash flooding, any of today’s activity could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could seeupwards of 2-3”.
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Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula gustingupwards of 20 mph.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
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High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s tomiddle 90sstatewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset.
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Mostly clear and calm conditions overnight may encourage the development of somepatchy fog throughout the Florida Panhandle, some of which may becomelocally dense.
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Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 65 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,134 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, May 20th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Lingering areas ofpatchy fogin the Western Panhandle will quickly dissipate by mid-morning. High pressure over the open Atlantic is continuing to impart easterly to southeasterly flow over the state.
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As a result, Southwest Florida will again carry the highest (50-70%) chances for rain today as easterly flow helps push the East Coast sea breeze inland and towards the West Coast by late morning.
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The Western Panhandle along the Emerald Coast sea breeze will be another favorable area for afternoon showers and thunderstorms today (30-50% chance) where higher moisture air has filtered in.
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While there is no organized risk of severe weather or flash flooding, any of today’s activity could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could seeupwards of 2-3”.
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Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula gustingupwards of 20 mph.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected today in Southwest Florida and the Western Panhandle which may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
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High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s tomiddle 90sstatewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90sacross West-Central and Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset.
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Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail, which will encourage the development ofpatchy fog throughout the Florida Panhandle, some of which could belocally dense.
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Amoderatetohigh risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 67 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,504 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, May 19th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Any areas ofpatchy fogacross Northeast Florida this morning will slowly dissipate by mid-morning as the sun rises.
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Otherwise, another rinse and repeat of yesterday as high pressure brings persistent east to southeasterly flow over the state.
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Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop along the sea breezes this afternoon, focused along the I-75 corridor (30-65% chance of rain).
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Any of this activity could becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could seeupwards of 2-4”.
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Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Peninsula gustingupwards of 20-25 mph.
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High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90s tonear 100-degrees across West-Central and Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset.
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Mostly clear and calm conditions will prevail, which will encourage the development ofpatchy fog throughout Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle, some of which could belocally dense.
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. Surf of2-4'is expected along all East Coast beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 70 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,627 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 18th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Drier air will filter into Northeast and North-Central Florida today where chances of rain will remain near zero and relative humidities will approach critically low values (35-45%).
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Sensitive tolocally elevated wildfire danger is expected this afternoon as these low RH overlap with breezy wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph.
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Moisture will linger south of the I-4 corridor and across the northern Panhandle where the sea breezes will help to spark isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain). The highest chance of rain (50-75%) exists along the Southwest Florida coast.
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Any thunderstorms that do develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will remain generally below 1” in most locations, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-4” should they see repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
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High temperatures will climb into the 90s throughout much of the state, with breezy winds gusting upwards of 25 mph along the I-95 corridor keeping temperatures a few degrees cooler.
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Feels-like temperatures will approach the upper 90s to near 100-degrees across Southwest Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering showers and storms will dissipate shortly after sunset. A few coastal showers may push onshore throughout the overnight hours along the East Coast (15-25% chance of rain).
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Lows will fall into the upper 60s to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Areas of patchy fog may develop across Northeast Florida and the western Panhandle by daybreak Tuesday.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 63 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,660 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
