RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, April 7th, 2026.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing this morning across the Peninsula as an upper-level disturbance traverses across the state along a stalled frontal boundary.
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This disturbance will help to enhance the activity across the entire Peninsula this afternoon, with the I-95 corridor the most probable focus for the heaviest rainfall (65-95% chance of rain).
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The Weather Prediction Center has outlooked a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the East Coast from Volusia County to Miami-Dade County.
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Saturated soils from recent rains may encourage instances of flooding and ponding of water today, especially in urban and poor drainage locations that receive additional repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
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A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of the rest of the interior central and southern Peninsula.
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A Flood Watch is in effect along the coast from Volusia to Miami-Dade counties where rainfall totals generally between 2-4 inches are expected, however locally greater amounts upwards of 5-7” will be possible in areas that see repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
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Although there is no organized risk for severe weather today, a few locally embedded thunderstorms could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail.
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Breezy to windy conditions are expected to develop beginning this afternoon across Northeast Florida and surging southward overnight along the East Coast.
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Wind gusts upwards of 35-45 mph are expected along the immediate coast with gusts of 25-35 mph throughout interior portions of North and Central Florida. Wind Advisories are in effect across the eastern Peninsula through tonight.
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Across the Panhandle and Big Bend, a local pocket of dry air is expected to filter into the area in the wake of the frontal activity across the Peninsula.
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Relative humidities will dip well below critical thresholds (15-25%) which, paired with the breezy conditions, will promote elevated tolocally critical wildfire conditions.
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A Red Flag Warning is in effect for portions of the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon for this wildfire risk.
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Isolated to scattered showers are expected to last through the overnight hours along the East Coast with easterly winds pushing activity onshore (40-65% chance of rain).
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High temperatures today will remain in the middle to upper 60s across Northeast and North-Central Florida with abundant cloud cover and rainfall. Middle 70s to lower 80s are expected throughout the Panhandle and South Florida.
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Lows will dip into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida tonight, with middle 60s to lower 70s across Central and South Florida.
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Dangerous marine conditions will develop across the East Coast today. Surf near4-6'this morning will increase to8-10'by the evening along the First Coast. Tonight, this high surf will surge southward along the East Coast with waves increasing to10-13'.
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AHigh Surf Advisoryis in effect for the First and Space Coast beginning this afternoon and the Treasure Coast beginning tonight.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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Instances ofminor beach erosionwill be possible along the East Coast along vulnerable and susceptible beaches near and during times of high tide.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, April 6th, 2026.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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The start to what will be a wet and rainy week is expected to commence today as the trailing end of a cold front slows and stalls across the Peninsula.
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A band of light rain showers has blossomed across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning and will continue to slowly trek eastward through the day (50-75% chance of rain).
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Meanwhile throughout the Peninsula, the stalled cold front along with the afternoon sea breezes will promote and enhance scattered to numerous shower and embedded thunderstorm activity across Central and South Florida (55-85% chance of rain).
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Some of these storms could becomelocally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail.
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Additionally, much of this activity will be slow-moving and may lead to localized flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
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A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the Florida East Coast today where localized rainfall totals could exceed 2-4” of rain in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours.
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Winds will become breezy throughout North Florida this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mphexpected.
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High temperatures will climb into the 80s throughout Central and South Florida today, with thick cloud cover and light rainfall keeping temperatures cooler in the middle 60s to lower 70s along the I-10 corridor.
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Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours across much of the Peninsula, some of which could remain locally heavy, especially along the I-95 corridor (60-85% chance of rain).
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Mostly dry conditions will prevail overnight across the western Panhandle with an isolated shower possible throughout the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend (15-30% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will cool off into the 50s throughout North Florida tonight, with middle 60s to lower 70s expected across Central and South Florida.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsremains for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches today as breezy winds persist.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, April 5th, 2026.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Areas ofpatchy fog, some of which islocally dense,will slowly lift and dissipate through the morning hours across the Panhandle and Northeast Florida.
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Showers with embedded thunderstorms are also ongoing across the far western Panhandle this morning ahead of and along our next frontal system.
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This cold front is expected to mostly lift north of the state, bringing with it the greatest chances of rain as well. However, this broken line of activity ahead of the front will traverse the Panhandle this morning before dissipating as it approaches the Big Bend region (50-90% chance of rain).
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Mostly dry conditions will prevail throughout the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley today, though an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out (15-25% chance of rain).
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Across the Peninsula, the sea breeze boundaries will push inland this afternoon helping to spark scattered showers and thunderstorms (40-60% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for severe weather today, a few storms throughout the Peninsula could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail.
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Additionally, a fewlocally heavy downpourscould lead to a quick1-3” of rainand areas ofponding of waterandnuisance floodingcannot be ruled out in low-lying/poor drainage locations.
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A few breezy wind gustsupwards of 20-25 mphcan be expected along the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida today.
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Given the ongoing drought,locally sensitivetoelevated wildfire conditionswill persist statewide despite relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon. Portions of the I-75 corridor will approach the upper 80s or even90-degrees.
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Any shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish shortly after sunset throughout the state.
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However, some lingering showers may redevelop across the Panhandle and Big Bend after midnight as the cold front passes through (25-40% chance of rain).
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Lows will reach the 60s to lower 70s throughout the Peninsula tonight.
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In the wake of the front, cooler overnight temperatures are expected with lows in the 50s throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend.
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Areas ofpatchy fog and low cloudsmay develop across Central Florida overnight and before daybreak Monday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected at all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, April 4th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Any areas ofpatchy fogthroughout North Florida this morning will quickly lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise.
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South and easterly flow will continue throughout the state today, though a plume of drier air aloft in the atmosphere will trail a pocket of moist air currently residing over the Big Bend northern Panhandle.
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This drier air will limit shower and thunderstorm activity throughout the Peninsula this afternoon, outside of coastal Southeast Florida where an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out (25-30% chance of rain).
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Southerly winds will help to push the sea breeze inland across the northern Panhandle this afternoon which will help spark isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms during peak heating hours (25-55% chance of rain).
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Although there is no organized risk for severe weather today, a few storms could becomelocally strongacross the Panhandle and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail.
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Additionally, a fewlocally heavy downpourscould lead to a quick1-3” of rain and areas ofponding of waterandnuisance floodingcannot be ruled out in low-lying/poor drainage locations.
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The south and easterly flow today will be accompanied by breezy wind gustsupwards of 20 mphthroughout the state with locally higher gustsupwards of 25-30 mphalong the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida.
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Given the ongoing drought,locally sensitivetoelevated wildfire conditionswill persist statewide, especially across Northeast Florida where relative humidities will dip tonear critical thresholds (30-40% RH values).
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High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon. Portions of the I-75 corridor will approach the upper 80s or even90-degrees.
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A lingering isolated shower cannot be ruled out across Southeast Florida overnight (20-25% chance of rain).
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A cold front with a few showers and embedded thunderstorms ahead of it will also approach the far western Panhandle close to daybreak on Sunday (20-30% chance of rain).
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Lows will reach the lower to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida.
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With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas offog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida.
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The greatest chances forlocally dense fogwill be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida by daybreak Sunday.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today as surf remains elevated with breezy onshore winds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, April 3, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Any areas of patchy fog throughout North Florida this morning will quickly lift and dissipate shortly after sunrise.
- High pressure remains in place over the western Atlantic today with moist south and east flow continuing across the state.
- Pockets of drier air aloft in the atmosphere will limit shower and thunderstorm activity across Central and South Florida.
- A weak upper-level disturbance passing across North Florida and sea breeze interactions will encourage scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
- Coverage will be greatest across the Suwannee River Valley and Northeast Florida where a few storms could become locally strong with frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail (50-75% chance of rain).
- Some of this activity could also bring locally heavy downpours capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain. Low-lying/poor drainage areas will be most susceptible to ponding of water and nuisance flooding.
- The easterly flow today will be accompanied by breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph throughout the Peninsula with locally higher gusts upwards of 25-30 mph along the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida.
- Given the ongoing drought, locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions will persist statewide.
- Any shower or thunderstorm activity is expected to diminish shortly after sunset throughout the state.
- High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon. Portions of the I-75 corridor will approach the upper 80s or even 90-degrees.
- Lows will reach the lower to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida.
- With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas of fog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida.
- The greatest chances for locally dense fog will be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida by daybreak Friday.
- A high risk for rip currents is expected at all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
