RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 4th, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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The cold front that had been supplying much of the state’s rainfall over the past few days is now positioned over extreme Southern Florida and is poised to fully exit the state today.
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Expectedly, chances for rain are confined to the southern tip of Florida, where a high (50-80%) chance for rain is currently forecast - mostly for Miami-Dade and Monroe counties.
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These areas have already been subject to repeated rounds of heavy rainfall over the past week, prompting the issuance of aMarginal Risk for Flash Flooding today.
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Rainfall totals will generally be between1-2’with some localized areas seeing upwards of3-5’.
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While there is no organized risk for severe weather with any storms in South Florida today, a fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Elsewhere, high pressure is settling in across the northern portions of the state.
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Our central and northern areas are waking up to quite a pleasant morning with widespread temperatures dipping into the mid-upper 50s and low 60s.
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In fact, numerous sites across Northern Florida and the greater Southeast region have already broken their record low temperatures for this date.
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Given the cooler and drier air that has filtered into these areas following yesterday’s frontal passage, minimal cloud coverage and no rainfall is expected today.
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The drier and breezier conditions(gusts of 20-25mph) expected across Northern and Central Florida may promote somesensitivewildfire conditions, although fuels that are still saturated from previous days’ rainfall will likely limit the extent of the danger.
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High temperatures today will be middle to upper 80s across the northern half of the state, with low to mid 80s more likely across the southern half of the state.
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Low temperatures will be in the low to mid 60s across North Florida and in the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the state.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 3rd, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A cold front located over Central FL is currently bisecting the state’s weather pattern.
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In the northern half of the state, abnormally cool and dry air for this time of year has moved through in the wake of the front’s passage.
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This will make for pleasant outdoor conditions and near-zero chances of rain, with afternoon highs in the high 70s to low 80s and overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.
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The post-frontal environment will also introduce gusty easterly/northeasterly windsupwards of 30mph for much of Northern and Central Florida today.
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The southern half of the state remains on the moist side of the front and thus retains a high (50-80%) chance of rain today.
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Shower and storm development will be driven by both the front and by typical sea breeze interactions and will likely be ongoing all day.
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Two swaths of moderate to heavy rainfall is already being observed along the central East Coast and the southern tip of the state, respectfully.
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Given the heavy rainfall potential driven by the extremely moist airmass and multiple sources of shower and storm development, aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingis in effect for coastal Southeast FL.
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Expected rainfall totals are around1-2’,with isolated areas of3-5’likely.
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There is no organized risk for severe weather today, however a few storms may belocally strong containingisolated damaging winds.
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High temperatures in the southern half of the state will also be below average (low to mid 80s); however, this is largely a result of widespread cloud and shower/storm coverage rather than frontal passage.
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Low temperatures will be seasonable in the low to mid 70s across the southern half of the state, with metro locations along the southeast coast likely seeing upper 70s to lower 80s tonight.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity in South FL should mostly wane following sunset.
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However, a few localized showers and storms lingering through the overnight hours, especially along coastal southeast FL is likely (40-60% chance) as the nearby front continues to provide an ample source of lift.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 2nd, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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low-moving frontal boundary over North Florida and an approaching upper-level disturbance to our northeast will promote the development of scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms today – some of which may bestrongto severeand may containheavy downpours capable of flash flooding.
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Storm activity today will be scattered to widespread, with the highest coverage (50-80%) in North Florida and along the I-95 Corridor.
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Within these areas, ample forcing for ascent alongside moderate instability and windshear introduces at least a low-end severe threat, prompting the issuance of aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe weather.
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The primary severe threat in this setup will be an isolated risk for gusty severe thunderstorm winds>60mph.
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Today’s storms will likely initiate in the early-late afternoon and persist well into the overnight hours, especially in the Panhandle, as the front and upper-level disturbance continue to provide adequate lift for storm activity.
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Outside of North and Eastern Florida, low chances for rain (20-30%) are expected over the West Coast and along the Coastal Panhandle.
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Rain chances increase for the Northern West Coast overnight as the front begins to sag southward.
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This activity will be occurring over regions that have seen repeated rounds of heavy rainfall and soil saturation over the past two weeks.
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Given this, the widespread coverage of storms expected, and the heavy rainfall potential associated with them, aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Floodinghas also been outlooked over much of the same areas outlined in the severe weather outlook.
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Forecast rainfall totals are generally between1-2”, however, a few isolated locations may see upwards of3-5”, especially in any areas that see multiple rounds of storms or within any training storms.
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High temperatures will remain in thelower 90sstatewide today.
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Very high humidities will make the outside feel extremelyhot and muggy across the entire state. Feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with many locations likelyexceeding 100 degrees.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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A moderate tohigh risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 32 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 14,208 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday June 1st, 2026
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A typical summer-like day is in store today with hot and humid afternoon conditions and sea-breeze driven shower and storm activity later today.
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With large-scale westerly flow still in place, the focus for sea-breeze showers will again be along the eastern half of the Peninsula (40-60% chance for rain) with a focus on the I-95 Corridor (50-80% chance for rain) in the late-afternoon/early evening hours.
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Elsewhere, a weak cold front remains draped over North Florida that will promote some isolated to scattered (30-50% chance for rain) showers and thunderstorms today.
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Chance for rain are low (10-20%) along the West Coast of Florida today as westerly flow quickly pushes the West Coast sea breeze inland and towards the East Coast during the early morning hours.
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Winds will be gusty today for North-Central Florida at around20-25mph.
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While there is no organized risk for severe weather with any storms today, a fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Additionally, while today is the first day in over a week without any organized threat of excessive rainfall outlooked by The Weather Prediction Center, an isolated chance of somenuisance flooding in heavy downpourscannot be ruled out given the abundantly moist atmosphere and recent rounds of heavy rainfall.
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High temperatures will remain in thelower 90sstatewide today.
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Very high humidities will make the outside feel extremelyhot and muggy across the entire state. Feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90s throughout much of the state, with many locations likelyexceeding 100 degrees.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity should dissipate quickly following sunset.
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A few showers and storms lingering through the overnight hours near coastal locations is possible (10-30% chance), especially along the East Coast and the extreme Western Panhandle.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop along the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Tuesday, some of which could becomelocally dense.
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Ahigh risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches. A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for the majority of the East Coast and portions of the West Coast.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, May 31st, 2026.
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
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A frontal boundary currently located over Central GA will slowly sag southward towards the FL state line today. This will provide a source of focused lift for shower and thunderstorms development, primarily over the Panhandle and Northeast FL regions today and tonight.
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Storm activity will initiate in the late morning to early afternoon hours and persist through the evening across Northern Florida.
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Coverage of today’s activity in North FL will bescattered to widespread (50-80% chance of rain), aided by the very moist air mass overtop.
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Elsewhere in the state, the Eastern half of the peninsula will be another focus for late afternoon shower and thunderstorm activity.
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Central and Eastern Florida carries a medium chance (40-60%) for rain today, whereas the West Coast and Coastal Panhandle regions carry a low (10-20%) chance for rain.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight across inland North Florida (40-60% chance) as the front continues its southward march tonight.
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A few isolated showers cannot be ruled out elsewhere across coastal peninsula location overnight as well (20-40% chance of rain).
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While no organized risk of severe weather is expected with any of today’s thunderstorm activity, a fewlocally strong storms cannot be ruled out, capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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AMarginal (level 1 of 4) to Slight (level 2 of 4) Risk for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of North Florida today - a region that has already seen multiple inches of rain and isolated instances of flash flooding over the past few days. Any areas that receive multiple rounds ofheavy downpours orslow-moving/training thunderstorms could experienceflooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Forecast rainfall amounts are expected to remain around 1-2” for most locations, though locally higher amountsupwards of 3-5” cannot be ruled out.
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High temperatures will remain mostly in the 80s statewide today with partly to mostly cloudy skies and plentiful rainfall. However, peeks of sunshine may bring temperatures into the lower 90s across the interior Peninsula.
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Hot and muggy conditions are expected statewide regardless as humidity increases. Feels-like temperatures will approach theupper 90s throughout Central and South Florida this afternoon. A few locations maybriefly reach or exceed 100 degrees this afternoon.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Areas ofpatchy fog may develop in the Western Panhandle overnight and towards daybreak on Monday.
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A high risk of rip currents is expected for most Panhandle beaches.A moderate risk for rip currents is in effect for much of the Northeast/East-Central coastlines.
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According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 41 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 14749 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
