RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, May 25th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and embedded thunderstorms are ongoing across much of the Panhandle this morning as an upper-level disturbance begins to pass just north of the area.
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This disturbance, paired with the sea breezes, will help to spark additional showers and thunderstorms throughout the Panhandle this afternoon (75-90% chance of rain).
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Activity will be more scattered in nature across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida this afternoon where deep southerly flow will still bring abundant moisture for activity to develop (45-60% chance of rain).
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked much of the Panhandle under aMarginaltoSlight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Floodingtoday for instances offlash flooding andponding of water, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Rounds of heavy downpours over saturated soils today could lead to flooding concerns. Rainfall amounts will generally add up to 1-2", though localized areas could seeupwards of 3-5".
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Any thunderstorm this afternoon could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning and gusty winds (40-50 mph).
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Throughout Central and South Florida, drier air will filter into the area today bringing lesser coverage in activity compared to previous days. However, an isolated shower or storm cannot be ruled out especially along the I-75 corridor of West-Central and North-Central Florida this afternoon (25-40% chance of rain).
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Breezy east to southeasterly winds will continue along the East Coast today, with gustsupwards of 20-25 mphacross East-Central and Southeast Florida. A few gustsupwards of 30 mphcannot be ruled out for immediate beachfront locales.
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High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s across the Panhandle and Big Bend where ample cloud cover will keep things cooler.
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Highs will reach thelower to middle 90sthroughout the Peninsula and Northeast Florida, with feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90stonear 100-degreesin Southwest Florida.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight over portions of West Central Florida and North Florida near the I-75 corridor before eventually waning around midnight (40-60% chance of rain).
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Storms may also continue through the night across the Panhandle where deep southerly flow will persist (40-60% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. A localizedmoderate riskalso exists for Southwest Florida beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 89 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 19,037 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday May 24th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of the Panhandle this morning associated with a weakening mid-level disturbance passing through the lower Mississippi River Valley.
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This activity will slowly translate eastward through the morning hours with additional activity expected to develop ahead of this disturbance this afternoon throughout the Big Bend (50-80% chance of rain).
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There remains quite a bit of uncertainty regarding any severe weather potential with this activity, however aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked throughout North Florida today for a few of these storms that may becomelocally strong to severe.
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The primary hazards with any of this activity will be frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Additionally, aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingis outlooked across the western Panhandle where training thunderstorms could lead tonuisance flooding andponding of waterin urban and poor-drainage locations.
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Throughout the Peninsula and Northeast Florida, the sea breezes will help to spark scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon focused along the I-75 corridor (50-80% chance of rain).
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingis outlooked along the I-75 corridor and across Northeast Florida this afternoon for localized instances offlash floodingdue to these slow-moving heavy thunderstorms.
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Isolated activity is expected throughout East-Central and Southeast Florida today (15-30% chance of rain), though breezy east to southeasterly winds are expected along the coast with gustsupwards of 20-25 mphat times this afternoon.
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High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s throughout the state this afternoon. With increasing humidity, the feels-like temperatures will approach themiddle to upper 90sthroughout Northeast and Southwest Florida.
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Shower or storm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight over portions of West Central Florida and North Florida near the I-75 corridor before eventually waning around midnight (40-70% chance of rain). Storms may also continue through the night along the FL/AL border.
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As we approach sunrise on Monday, isolated showers may get an early start along the immediate Florida East Coast.
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Somepatchy fog may develop throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend tonight, but given the increased cloud cover, should be localized with visibilities around 3 miles or more.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 70s to lower 80s throughout the state.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, May 23rd, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms possible across much of the state today.
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While there is no organized risk of severe weather with any of today’s activity, a few storms could become strongand capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds to 40-50 mph, and heavy downpours.
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Increased humidity will result inheat index values in the upper 90s to around 100-degrees this afternoon across much of the Peninsula.
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Shower or storm activity is expected to linger well past sunset tonight over portions of West Central Florida and North Florida before eventually waning around midnight.
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Eastern areas of the State that may miss out on the rain could see a locally increased fire threat as southeasterly winds gusting up to 20 mphcould challenge fire containment. Elsewhere, the threat of thunderstorms with lightning and brief gusty/erratic winds will be capable of sparking new wildfires or reigniting existing ones. According to theFlorida Forest Service, there are 80 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,589 acres.
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Onshore winds and elevated surf will continue to bring amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsfor all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, May 22, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Areas of patchy fog has developed over the Western Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises.
- High pressure over the Atlantic has continued its eastward march over the open Atlantic, now veering our surface flow to primarily out of the southeast today.
- For the peninsula, a largely rinse-and-repeat distribution of rain chances is expected today, with the highest chances once again in extreme Southwest Florida (30-50%) along . Additionally, high (70-90%) chances for rain are expected in the far Western Panhandle today as a series of upper-level disturbances are expected to swing through the region and provide a source of enhanced lift.
- While there is no organized risk of severe weather with any of today’s activity could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and locally heavy downpours.
- Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could see upwards of 2-3”, especially in the Western Panhandle if any corridors of training storms develop.
- The Weather Prediction Center has outlined a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for extreme western Escambia County today.
- Wildfire danger will remain low today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds gusting upwards of 20 mphare expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula and Western Panhandle.
- Any thunderstorms that develop may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
- High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching the upper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida. Some localized areas may see feels-like temperatures that reach or exceed 100-degrees this afternoon.
- Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity over the peninsula will shortly dissipate after sunset. Rounds of scattered showers and storms may continue overnight for the Western Panhandle as upper-level disturbances continue to swing through the region.
- Some patchy fog may develop throughout the Western Florida Panhandle tonight given the abundant low-level moisture, although this will likely be highly dependent on how today and tonight’s showers and thunderstorms develop/evolve.
- Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
- A moderate to high risk of rip currents is expected for East Coast and Panhandle beaches.
- According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 74 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,571 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, May 21st, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Areas ofpatchy to locally dense fog have developed over the Panhandle this morning but will quickly dissipate over the next 1-2 hours as the sun rises.
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The highest chances for rain today will again be focused across Southwest Florida (40-60%) along any sea breeze boundaries.
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Winds subtly shifting out of the southeast today will also increase rain chances statewide, with the much of the I-75 corridor carrying a medium (30-50%) chance for showers and thunderstorms this afternoon.
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While there is no organized risk of severe weather or flash flooding, any of today’s activity could becomelocally strongand capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), andlocally heavy downpours.
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Rainfall amounts will generally remain below 1”, though localized areas could seeupwards of 2-3”.
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Wildfire danger will remain lower today given relative humidities above critical thresholds, though breezy winds are expected throughout the Eastern Peninsula gustingupwards of 20 mph.
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Scattered showers and thunderstorms may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds that can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones.
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High temperatures will climb into the upper 80s tomiddle 90sstatewide, with afternoon feels-like temperatures approaching theupper 90s across North-Central and Western Florida.
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Tonight, any lingering shower or storm activity will shortly dissipate after sunset.
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Mostly clear and calm conditions overnight may encourage the development of somepatchy fog throughout the Florida Panhandle, some of which may becomelocally dense.
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Lows will fall into the lower to middle 70s for much of the state, with upper 70s to lower 80s across the Southeast Metro and Keys.
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Amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
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According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 65 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 18,134 acres.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
