RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, September 16, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Little to no change from Monday in the forecast can be expected for today.
- Dry and mostly sunny skies persist across North Florida courtesy of northeasterly winds leading to pleasant conditions.
- Breezy winds along the Northeast Florida coast will continue throughout the day with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon.
- Ongoing dry conditions and relative humidity values falling near critical thresholds across the Panhandle may lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions.
- Moisture will creep northward into South Florida, giving way to scattered showers and thunderstorms later in the afternoon and evening (30-55% chance of rain).
- Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across Central Florida along the I-4 corridor as moisture begins to extend northward (15-30% chance of rain).
- High temperatures will reach the middle 80s to lower 90s across the state this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions continue across South Florida allowing for heat index values to reach the middle to upper 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before a break in activity, and by the early morning hours on Wednesday, additional showers and embedded thunderstorms will begin to drift back towards the coastlines (20-45% chance of rain).
- Otherwise, conditions be expected throughout the overnight hours.
- Low temperatures will fall into the lower to middle 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- Ocean swells of 3-5' and onshore winds will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast.
- Panhandle beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- Minor tidal and coastal flooding will continue near and during times of high tide along the tidal St. Johns River and portions of the Keys, and Coastal Flood Statements and Advisories remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains at moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad low pressure, Invest 92L, area located about midway between the Windward Islands and the coast of west Africa have better organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form in the next day or two as the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...90%.
- A tropical wave emerging off the west coast of Africa is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible towards the mid to latter part of this week as it moves westward at 15-20 mph, moving from the eastern and central portions of the tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...low...20%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, September 15, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dry conditions persist across North Florida and into Central Florida courtesy of high pressure along the eastern U.S. leading to pleasant conditions with plenty of sunshine.
- Breezy wind gusts will continue along the Northeast Florida coast with wind gusts upwards 15-25 mph developing this afternoon.
- The stalled frontal boundary to the south of the Florida Peninsula will linger through today keeping moisture in place for South-Central and South Florida.
- Isolated showers will be possible along the Atlantic Coast and south of the I-4 corridor, with scattered activity expected across South Florida later in the day (35-50% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding; however, thunderstorm activity may bring instances of heavy downpours that lead to ponding of water in low-lying/urban corridors.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s across South Florida this afternoon.
- Heat index values will remain below critical thresholds across North and Central Florida, but muggy conditions across South Florida will keep heat index values in the middle 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will continue into the late evening hours across South Florida before moving offshore overnight.
- A few showers may linger overnight along or near the Southeast Florida coast overnight (15-25% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the East Coast due to onshore winds and elevated surf of 3-5'.
- Panhandle beaches can expect to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
- Elevated tides will continue to lead to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding along the Florida Keys near and during times of high tide - Coastal Flood Statements.
- Trapped tides, elevated surf and onshore winds will continue to lead to minor coastal and tidal flooding within the tidal St. Johns River and along the Northeast Florida coast, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in place.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains steady within moderate flood stage due to trapped water levels.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- A tropical wave over the central Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. The disturbance will begin to move into a more favorable environment for development in the ext. couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter portion of this week as it moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40%.
- Formation chance through 7 days...high...80%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, September 14, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Drier conditions will infiltrate the Peninsula today as the recent frontal boundary has finally pushed offshore from South Florida.
- While the frontal boundary remains nearby, and moisture associated with the front lingering, additional rounds of isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along portions of Central and South Florida this afternoon and evening (25-45% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today; however, areas might be sensitive to additional rainfall today and could lead to localized ponding of water in urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” possible in heavy downpours from thunderstorm activity.
- Throughout the rest of the state, pleasant and mostly sunny conditions can be expected as northeasterly winds continue to usher drier air southward.
- Breezy northeasterly winds along the Northeast and East-Central Florida coasts will reach upwards of 15-25 mph this afternoon, with stronger gusts upwards of 30-35 mph just offshore or along the immediate coastline.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Portions of South Florida will see heat index values reach the middle 90s this afternoon before any shower or thunderstorm activity develops.
- Showers and thunderstorms will gradually dissipate throughout the evening and overnight hours, with a chance for a lingering shower or two overnight along the I-95 corridor (15-25% chance of rain).
- Breezy winds look to calm down mostly overnight but northern portions of the First Coast could see still wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph overnight.
- Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to upper 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for nearly all East Coast beaches today, with several Panhandle beaches seeing a moderate risk.
- Large ocean swells will persist across most East Coast beaches today with persistent breezy onshore winds creating wave heights of 4-7’.
- Elevated high tides and elevated surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for portions of the Upper Florida Keys and coastal Southeast Florida near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect.
- Growing ocean swells and onshore winds will trap elevated tides within tidal portions of the St. Johns River, leading to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide, with a localized instances of moderate coastal flooding possible.
- A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have risen into moderate flood stage.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although dry and stable air is expected to limit development during the next couple of days, gradual development is anticipated thereafter. A tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter part of this week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10-15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, September 13th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Tropical moisture will linger around South Florida today as a frontal boundary pushes through, promoting scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon during peak heating hours (50-75% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across far Southeast Florida for localized flash flooding.
- Multiple days of heavy rainfall have resulted in saturated soils and additional rainfall may lead to an earlier onset to flooding, especially in urban locations.
- Up the I-95 corridor along the East Coast, onshore winds will provide enough moisture to stream in off the Atlantic to produce isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon (30-50% chance of rain).
- Breezy conditions are expected across coastal Northeast Florida where a Wind Advisory is in effect until 8pm this evening.
- Northeast winds of 15-25 mph, with gusts upwards of 40 mph, are expected this afternoon especially along the First Coast beaches.
- A few isolated showers are possible along the I-75 corridor but enough dry air will filter in to inhibit increased activity (15-25% chance of rain).
- Over the Panhandle and Suwannee Valley, dry conditions will prevail with sunny skies.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Dry conditions will keep heat index values near or even below the actual temperatures this afternoon across North Florida.
- Humidity will remain elevated across South and Central Florida with feels like temperatures nearing the lower to middle 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the evening and into the overnight hours along portions of the East Coast (30-45% chance of rain), dry elsewhere.
- Low temperatures will fall into the lower 60s across North Florida and the Panhandle where some isolated patchy fog is possible in low lying areas by daybreak.
- Lower to middle 70s can be expected across South and Central Florida overnight.
- A moderatetohigh risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide today.
- Wave heights of 4-6’are expected for Florida East Coast beaches, with some surf upwards of 8' in the surf zone for First Coast beaches.
- Minor coastal and tidal floodingwill continue along the St. Johns River and the First Coast due to elevated surf, tides, and onshore winds, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
- Nuisance and minor coastal/saltwater floodingwill be possible for portions of the Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade County coastlines and Upper Keys - a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor to moderate flood stagedue to trapped tides and northerly winds.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located near the Cabo Verde Island is producing limited showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic. Dry and stable air will likely limit development over the next few days, but a tropical depression could form by the middle to latter part of next week while moving west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph over the central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through the next 48 hours... low..near-0%.
- Formation chance through the next 7 days... medium...50%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, September 12th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A stalled frontal boundary will remain draped over the southern Peninsula today promoting another wet and active day across Southeast Florida.
- Showers and embedded thunderstorms are moving onshore Southwest Florida this morning and additional activity will develop along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon (60-80% chance of rain).
- Isolated to scattered activity is expected along the I-4 corridor this afternoon with a bit more drier air filtering into the region (30-50% chance of rain).
- Even drier conditions are expected across the Panhandle and the Suwannee Valley (0-20% chance of rain).
- Enhanced onshore winds along the First and Space Coasts will bring wind gusts of 15-25 mph and some isolated gusts upwards of 35 mph.
- A wind advisory may be issued for the First Coast if conditions warrant later today.
- With these onshore winds, a few showers and thunderstorms may develop along the Northeast coastlines and move inland in the afternoon (20-45% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking another Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across much of South Florida and the East Coast today with a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) across Southeast Florida.
- Repeated rounds of rainfall on saturated soils could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water.
- Some locally strong thunderstorms across South and Central Florida will be capable of producing frequent lightning and heavy downpours.
- High temperatures will remain in the middle 80s to lower 90s statewide this afternoon.
- Warm and muggy conditions will persist across far South Florida and the Keys where heat index values will reach the middle to upper 90s; North and Central Florida can expect heat index values in the upper 80s to lower 90s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will linger throughout the evening and into the overnight hours along portions of the East Coast (50-60% chance of rain), dry elsewhere.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida and the Keys.
- A moderatetohigh risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide today.
- Wave heights of 3-5’are expected for Florida East Coast beaches, with some surf upwards of 6' in the surf zone for First Coast beaches.
- Minor coastal and tidal floodingwill continue along the St. Johns River and the First Coast due to elevated surf, tides, and onshore winds, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
- Nuisance and minor coastal/saltwater floodingwill be possible for portions of the Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade County coastlines and Upper Keys - a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor remains within minor flood stagedue to trapped tides and northerly winds.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:A tropical wave located near the west coast of Africa is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the far eastern Atlantic. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system over the next few days. A tropical depression could form by the middle part of next wee while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph over the eastern and central tropical Atlantic.
- Formation chance through the next 48 hours... low..near-0%.
- Formation chance through the next 7 days... medium...40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
