RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 22nd, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A weak cold front sweep through North and Central Florida today helping to reinforce dry conditions.
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Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will usher even drier air southward, especially across northern Florida.
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Sensitive tolocally elevated wildfire conditions will develop with relative humidity values falling below critical thresholds (20-35%) over worsening drought conditions.
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Luckily winds will remain below 10 mph this afternoon.
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A few showers and embedded thunderstorms may develop with enough moisture at the surface (10-15% chance of rain).
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Any thunderstorm could bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
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High temperatures will reach the lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida.
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The weak front will continue to approach South Florida overnight, which may keep a few spotty showers ongoing ahead of the front itself.
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Otherwise mostly dry conditions can be expected overnight throughout the state, with some instances of patchy fog developing early Thursday morning.
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Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s across North Florida, middle to upper 60s across Central Florida and lower to middle 70s across South Florida.
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The moderate to high risk for rip currents persists along the Panhandle and East Coast given calmer marine conditions briefly developing
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Coastal Flood Statements remain in place along the Florida Keys for minor tidal flooding.
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The St. Johns River at Astor has fallen below moderate flood stage and into minor flood stage, and will remain there for several days.
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From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
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Tropical Storm Melissa is located about 305 miles south-southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti and moving west-northwestward at 2 mph. A slow forward speed and gradual turn to the northwest and north-northwest is expected during the next few days. On the forecast track, Melissa is expected to approach Jamaica and the southwestern portion of Haiti later this week. Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Some gradual strengthening is anticipated during the next few days, and Melissa could become a hurricane on Thursday. Melissa poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be closely monitored.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, October 21, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Mostly dry and pleasant conditions can be expected across the Sunshine State today.
- Areas of patchy fog have developed this morning across Northeast Florida and portions of the Peninsula but these conditions will gradually lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours.
- The lingering cold front from yesterday will remain draped along South Florida keeping widely scattered showers possible with embedded thunderstorms possible (15-30% chance of rain).
- Any thunderstorm that develops may bring frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours.
- Sensitive wildfire conditions will return across the Panhandle and the Big Bend as relative humidity values fall near critical thresholds (35-40%) over worsening drought conditions.
- High temperatures will reach the lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
- Portions of Southwest Florida will continue to see heat index values in the middle 90s near mid-afternoon.
- Dry conditions can be expected again overnight, with instances of fog developing across much of the state early Wednesday morning.
- Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle 70s across South Florida.
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected along the Panhandle and East Coast as calmer wave action and winds return.
- Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect for the Keys where minor tidal flooding will remain possible near and during times of high tide.
- The St. Johns River at Astor is forecast to fall below moderate flood stage in the next few days as water levels continue to slowly discharge.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Satellite, radar and surface observations indicate that the area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea, Invest 98L, appears to be developing a well-defined center and is already producing winds up to 45 mph. A tropical storm is expected to form later today while it slows down over the central Caribbean Sea. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over portions of the ABC Islands during the next day or two. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate the system later today. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be closely monitored.
- Formation chances through 48 hours...high...near 100%.
- Formation chances through 7 days...high...near 100%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, October 20th, 2025.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Instances ofpatchy to locally dense fog has developed this morning across portions of Central and South Florida, but will dissipate as the sun continues to rise.
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Yesterday's cold front will continue to slowly drag through the Peninsula today bringing isolated to scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms south of the I-4 corridor.
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Lingering moisture will help shower and embedded thunderstorms to develop, especially this afternoon and evening (15-40% chance of rain).
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Organized severe weather is no expected; however, anembedded strong thunderstorm or two cannot be ruled out this afternoon.
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Thunderstorms may be capable of bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours.
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Northwesterly winds behind the cold front will help usher cooler and drier air behind the cold front creating a pleasant fall day.
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Locally sensitive wildfire conditions will return to the Panhandle today as drier conditions return over worsening drought conditions.
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High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida and middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida this afternoon.
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The frontal boundary will stall along the southern Peninsula and may keep brief isolated showers ongoing along coastal portions of South Florida overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
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Low temperatures will fall into the 50s across North Florida, possibly the upper 40s, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
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Ahigh risk for rip currents continues for the East Coast given onshore winds and elevated surf of 2-5'. Amoderate risk has returned for all Panhandle beaches.
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Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect along the Southeast Florida coast and the Keys given the upcoming new moon creating elevated tides that could lead tominor tidal flooding.
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The St. Johns River at Astor continues to very slowly decline throughmoderate flood stage.
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From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
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A tropical wave,Invest 98L, over the eastern Caribbean Sea is producing a concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms mostly east of the wave axis. The system is moving westward at 15-20 mph towards the central Caribbean Sea and is expected to slowdown over the next few days. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development, a tropical depression or storm is likely to form over the next few days. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are subsiding for the Windward and Leeward Islands this morning, but could begin over portions of the ABC Islands during the next couple of days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but continues to be closely monitored.
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Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50%.
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Formation chance through 7 days...high...80%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, October 19th, 2025.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms are currently moving across the eastern Panhandle this morning ahead of and along a weakening cold front.
- This cold front will continue to push along the I-10 corridor throughout the daytime hours bringing scattered showers and thunderstorms along with it (65-95% chance of rain).
- Enough moisture and some favorable atmospheric conditions may lead to an isolated strong to severe thunderstorm or two this morning and into the early afternoon hours along the Panhandle and western Big Bend, and the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather.
- Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (50-60 mph), an isolated funnel cloud or tornado and locally heavy downpours.
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today as the front will quickly move through the Panhandle today.
- Rainfall totals upwards of an inch can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 1-2" possible.
- Once the frontal boundary moves into the Suwannee Valley and into Northeast Florida later this afternoon and into the early evening hours, shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to fall apart and nearly dissipate.
- Just enough moisture ahead of the frontal boundary will allow for scattered showers and a few thunderstorms to develop across the Peninsula this afternoon, with the best chances over interior South Florida and along the Keys (20-45% chance of rain).
- Cloud cover and scattered shower activity will keep high temperatures in the lower to middle 80s across North Florida this afternoon.
- More sunshine and drier conditions will allow high temperatures to reach the middle to upper 80s across Central and South Florida.
- Drier conditions will move in from the west across the Panhandle and into the Big Bend behind the front.
- Enough moisture ahead of the front may allow for some light sprinkles or brief showers as it continues to push southward, but the lack of organization should limit widespread activity and possibly thunderstorm activity as well this evening and overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures will fall into the 50s and lower 60s overnight across North Florida behind the front.
- Ahead of the front, low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to middle 70s across Central and South Florida.
- Breezy onshore winds and ocean swells ahead of an approaching cold front will create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- Nature Coast beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents while the rest of the West Coast continues to see a low risk.
- Water levels are still forecast to reach 1.5-2’ above normally dry ground near and during times of high tide along portions of the tidal St. Johns River and coastal Northeast Florida, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect.
- The St. Johns River at Astor continues to very slowly decline through moderate flood stage as onshore winds ease up.
- From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
- Near the Windward Islands and Caribbean Sea (Invest 98L): A tropical wave currently located near the Windward Islands is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Heavy rainfall and gusty winds are expected today continuing through Monday morning across portions of the Windward and Leeward Islands as the system moves quickly westward at 20-25 mph into the eastern Caribbean Sea. Additional development is forecast to be limited over the next day or two, due to the fast forward motion of the wave. The system is then expected to slow down over the central Caribbean Sea during the middle portion of this week, where environmental conditions could become more conducive for development. A tropical depression could form over the central Caribbean Sea by the middle to latter portions of this week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 5-7 days, at least, but continues to be closely monitored.
- *Formation chances through 48 hours... low…10%.
- *Formation chances through 7 days... medium…60%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for October 18th, 2025
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
Good morning,
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Some patchy fog and mist across interior Northeast Florida will quickly dissipate after sunrise this morning.
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Another day of sunny, dry, and pleasant conditions are expected across the Sunshine state as a high pressure remains over the region.
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Onshore winds will keep breezy conditions around for the Southeast Florida coast and Florida Keys today, with wind gusts of 15-20 mph possible this afternoon.
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Given the ongoing drought and very low soil moisture across the Panhandle, locally sensitive wildfire conditions may develop this afternoon despite relative humidities remaining above critical thresholds (40-45% RH values).
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High temperatures will reach the 80s once again throughout the state, with upper 70s along the Northeast beaches.
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The next cold frontal passage will begin to approach the western Panhandle in the late overnight hours towards daybreak Sunday morning.
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A few marginally strong to severe thunderstorms are possible ahead of and along this cold front as it approaches the Panhandle in the late-night and early morning hours (50-75% chance of rain).
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A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of Severe Thunderstorms has been outlooked for the far western Panhandle through 7am CDT tomorrow.
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A few thunderstorms could produce damaging wind gusts, heavy downpours, frequent lightning, and perhaps an isolated tornado or two.
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This Marginal Risk will then spread eastward across the remainder of the Panhandle tomorrow.
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Southerly winds will begin to spread a bit of tropical moisture across the Florida Keys which could lead to a few isolated showers overnight (15-30% chance of rain).
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Mostly dry conditions are expected elsewhere through tonight.
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Low temperatures will remain in the lower to middle 60s for much of the state.
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Portions of the coastal Panhandle may only dip into the upper 60s to lower 70s, and warmer temperatures will keep lows in the middle to upper 70s across South Florida and the Keys.
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Across the Suwannee River Valley, cooler temperatures are expected with lows in the upper 50s to lower 60s. Patchy fog may develop before sunrise.
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Ocean swells will remain elevated today with surf of 2-4' expected along the entire Florida East Coast, and upwards of 5'for Treasure Coast beaches, creating a high risk for rip currents.
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Panhandle beaches can expect a moderate tohigh risk for rip currents ahead of the approaching cold front.
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A Coastal Flood Advisoryremains in effect for portions of the tidal St. Johns and coastal Northeast Florida where minor coastal floodingis possible near and during times of high tide.
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Minor coastal and saltwater floodingis possible along coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys and a Coastal Flood Statementis in effect.
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ARiver Flood Warningremains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage.
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From the National Hurricane Center (NHC):
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North Atlantic: A non-tropical area of low pressure is located several hundred miles east-northeast of Bermuda. There is a slight chance that the system could become subtropical through tonight before it turns northeastward over cooler waters on Sunday.
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Formation chance through 48 hours...low... 10%.
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Formation chance through 7 days... low... 10%.
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East of the Windward Islands and Caribbean: A tropical wave located about 800 miles east of the Windward Islands continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days while it moves generally westward at around 20 mph. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring heavy rainfall and gusty winds to the Windward Islands Sunday and Sunday night, then move across the Caribbean Sea through much of next week.
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Formation chance through 48 hours...low... near 0%.
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Formation chance through 7 days... low... 30%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
