RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, February 16th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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The remainder of yesterday’s cold front and associated shower activity will push through South Florida this morning and clearing the Keys by the early to mid-afternoon hours today (15-25% chance of rain).
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There may be a very slim chance for an embedded rumble of thunder this morning, especially closer towards the coastal waters.
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Partly to mostly cloudy skies will linger throughout the state for most of today as the upper-level disturbance associated with Sunday’s frontal system moves overhead.
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Dry conditions return across the state; however, moisture in place and cloud cover will keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds throughout the day.
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Wind gusts will remain slightly elevated near 10-15 mph throughout the day, with strongerwind gusts upwards of 15-25 mphalong the eastern coastline.
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High temperatures will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s across the state, with interior portions of South Florida reaching the lower 80s this afternoon.
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Onshore winds along portions of the East-Central Florida coastline and enough moisture may bring a few light sprinkles or a brief shower this evening and overnight (10-20% chance of rain).
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Instances of fogwill be possible across interior portions of the Big Bend and North-Central Florida by early Tuesday morning.
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Low temperatures will fall into the middle 40s to lower 50s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and upper 50s to middle 60s across South Florida.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentswill linger statewide as ocean swells gradually dissipate and winds shift out of the northeast and become lighter.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, February 15th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Active weatherreturns to the Sunshine State after a few days of pleasant conditions and high pressure.
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A squall line of showers and thunderstorms has moved into the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning, bringing some stronger thunderstorm activity along with it (80-near 100% chance of rain).
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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking aSlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weatheracross most of North Florida, with aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5)extending through Central Florida and the I-4 corridor this evening and tonight.
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Any of thesestrong to severe thunderstormsthat develop will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (60-70 mph), an embedded tornado or two, large hail (upwards of 1”) and locally heavy rainfall.
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ATornado Watchhas been issued for much of the Big Bend until the mid-afternoon hours, and may be extended into Northeast Florida later today if conditions warrant.
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Out ahead of this line, gusty winds outside of thunderstorm activity will develop reaching 15-25 mph beginning late this morning and continuing throughout the daytime hours across the state.
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Windgusts will reach 20-30 mphstatewide, withstrong gusts of 35-45 mphacross North and North-Central Florida.
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Wind Advisorieshave been issued for most of North Florida through this evening as these gusty winds can be expected outside of thunderstorm activity.
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingacross North Florida and along portions of the Nature Coast where some locally heavy rainfall or training of thunderstorms could bringnuisance and localized ponding of water, especially for urban areas.
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Generally, 0.5-1.5” of rainfall can be expected withlocally higher totalsupwards of 2” along the coastal Big Bend and Nature Coast for repeated activity moving onshore from the coast.
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Another brief line of showers looks to follow behind the main line across the I-10 corridor late this afternoon and into the evening bringing an additional round of isolated to widely scattered showers.
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This cold front will continue to push through the state this evening and overnight, weakening and becoming less organized as it crosses through Central Florida overnight (35-50% chance of rain).
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Near sunrise on Monday morning, shower and thunderstorm activity will remain mostly over South Florida as the cold front makes its final push through the state.
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High temperatures will reach the 70s across the Panhandle and western Big Bend due to earlier rain chances and cloud cover.
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A delay in shower and thunderstorm activity and pockets of sunshine will allow the rest of the state to see high temperatures in the upper 70s to middle 80s.
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Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 50s across North Florida and 60s across Central and South Florida tonight.
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Gusty southerly to southeasterly winds and large ocean swells associated with a cold front moving through the state will bring amoderate tohigh rip current riskstatewide.
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Large long-period ocean swells will createwave heights of 5-7’along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day.
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High Surf Advisoriesremain in effect along the Panhandle through this evening fordangerous surf and beach conditions.
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Nuisance to minor coastal floodingnear times of high tide may be possible along the Nature Coast with water levels reaching 1-2’ above normally dry ground due to large ocean swells and southerly winds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, February 14, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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High pressure will remain centered over the Southeast U.S. today bringing another sunny, dry, and pleasant day to the state.
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A localized chance of a light sprinkle exists along the immediate Treasure Coast this afternoon with some coastal shower activity, though any activity will be very brief in nature (15-20% chance of rain).
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Pockets ofnear critically lowrelative humidities are expected this afternoon across North Florida and the spine of the Peninsula which, paired with ongoing drought, will continue to promoteelevated wildfire conditions.
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High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 70s across North Florida this afternoon and upper 70s to lower 80s throughout Central and South Florida.
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Coastal and beach locations of North Florida will remain cooler with onshore flow where highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected.
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Mostly dry conditions will continue to prevail tonight for much of the state asa potent upper-level disturbancealong the Gulf Coast approaches.
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Fog and low cloudsmay develop along coastal Big Bend, the Nature Coast, and portions of West-Central Florida with moist southerly flow ahead of our frontal disturbance.
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Some of this fog could belocally dense andDense Fog Advisoriesmay be issued if conditions warrant.
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Scattered showers will begin to develop ahead of the front across the western Panhandle after midnight (60-80% chance of rain), spreading across the eastern Panhandle and western Big Bend before sunrise (25-50% chance of rain).
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Overall coverage of these showers and locally embedded thunderstorms will increase towards daybreak as a more organized line of activity enters the Panhandle around sunrise.
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Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop ahead of the front, with wind gustsupwards of 25-30 mphexpected across the western Panhandle by early Sunday morning.
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Low temperatures tonight will remain in the 50s for most, with middle 60s to lower 70s along coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
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Generally calm surf of 1-3' is expected at all statewide beaches this afternoon.
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Surf will begin to increase to4-6'after midnight along the western Panhandle where aHigh Surf Advisorywill go into effect at 3 AM CST tonight.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, February 13, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Dense Fog Advisorieswill remain in effect until mid-morning for West-Central Florida before fog and low clouds slowly lift and dissipate.Some areas of fog may linger longer, especially near the coast.
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A mostly sunny day is expected across the state as high pressure briefly settles across the Southeast U.S.
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Relative humidities will dipbelow critical thresholdsthis afternoon(20-30% RH values)across North Florida. Given the ongoingsevere toextreme drought, this will encourageelevated wildfire conditionsthis afternoon.
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Locally greater wildfire risk cannot be ruled out, especially north of the I-10 corridor.
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Elevated conditionscan also be expected across Central and South Florida in areas experiencing the most severe drought.
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Highs will reach the 70s for much of the state this afternoon, with areas of coastal North Florida staying in the middle to upper 60s and interior South Florida creeping into the lower 80s.
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Dry conditions will continue to prevail overnight with clear skies.
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Another round ofpatchy fog and low cloudsis expected across Central and South Florida tonight, especially along the Gulf-facing coasts and adjacent interior locations where areas ofdense fog cannot be ruled out.
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Foggy conditions combined with ongoing smoke from wildfires will further reduce visibilities, and caution should be advised during the morning commute.
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Lows will cool off into the lower to middle 40s across North Florida, upper 40s to middle 50s in Central Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s in South Florida.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, February 12, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dense Fog Advisories remain in effect until 10:00 AM EST across Central Florida and the adjacent Gulf coastal waters for areas of patchy dense fog that will slowly dissipate.
- Some areas of fog may linger longer, especially near the coast, and extensions of the Dense Fog Advisories cannot be ruled out.
- A mostly sunny day is expected for both North and South Florida where chances of rain will remain near zero.
- Across Central Florida, a weak frontal boundary will remain draped over the region promoting cloudy skies and an isolated chance of a shower this afternoon (20-30% chance of rain).
- To the north of this front, drier air will filter into the state with relative humidities dipping tonear critical thresholds, mainly north of the I-10 corridor (30-40% RH values).
- Given the ongoing severetoextreme drought, this will encourage elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon.
- Highs will reach the 70s for much of the state this afternoon, with areas of coastal Northeast Florida staying in the middle to upper 60s and interior South Florida creeping into the lower 80s.
- A few isolated showers may linger along the Treasure Coast this evening before clearing overnight (15-25% chance of rain).
- Another round of patchy fog and low clouds is expected across Central and South Florida tonight, especially along the Gulf-facing coasts and adjacent interior locations where areas of dense fog cannot be ruled out.
- Lows will cool off into the lower to middle 40s across North Florida, middle 50s in Central Florida, and upper 50s to lower 60s in South Florida.
- A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
