RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, January 17, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A few showers are ongoing across the western Panhandle this morning, and additional scattered showers will develop across the Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day amidst warm and moist southerly flow (30-60% chance of rain).
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Across coastal Southeast Florida, a few light sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be ruled out throughout the day, though activity will not be widespread in nature (15-20% chance of rain).
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A mostly dry day is on tap for the rest of the Peninsula where ongoing drought may lead tolocally sensitive wildfire conditionsthis afternoon, though winds will remain light.
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High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with lower to middle 70s across the Peninsula.
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Tonight, scattered showers will continue to stream across the Panhandle and Big Bend before becoming more numerous and widespread after midnight (60-90% chance of rain).
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This slug of widespread showers and light rain will begin to translate eastward after midnight with scattered to numerous showers spreading across Northeast Florida before daybreak Sunday (50-70% chance of rain).
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Rainfall totals will generally remain below 0.5" for much of the Panhandle and Big Bend, howeverlocally higher totalsupwards of 1-2" cannot be ruled out.
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Cold air behind the front will attempt to catch up to the departing rain which could lead to a few locations across the western Panhandle transitioning to awintry mix or wet snowbefore sunrise (20-40% chance of snowflakes mixing in).
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If snow can mix in, any accumulations will remain minimal, insignificant, and confined to grassy and elevated surfaces.
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Warm southerly winds will promotefog and low cloudsto develop across South Florida overnight, which could belocally dense.
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Low temperatures will dip into themiddle to upper 30sby daybreak Sunday across the Panhandle and Big Bend.
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Lows in the lower to middle 40s can be expected across Northeast Florida, with 50s across Central and interior South Florida. Coastal Southeast Florida will only reach the middle to upper 60s tonight.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for most Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. A localmoderate risk is also expected for Charlotte and Lee County beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, January 16, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A cool but sunny and dry day is on tap for the Sunshine State as high pressure briefly settles in over the state.
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Very dry air will remain in place across the state, especially for Northeast Florida and along the I-75 corridor wherecritically low relative humidities (20-30%)may lead toelevated wildfire conditionsthis afternoon.
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Locally greater wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out in any areas experiencing the most severe drought.
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Winds will remain light today statewide, though a few breezy gustsupwards of 20 mphare possible across the western Panhandle this afternoon.
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High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s for much of the state today. Northeast Florida can expect highs in the middle to upper 50s and South Florida can expect middle to upper 60s.
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Moist southerly flow will return to portions of South Florida and the Panhandle tonight as the next frontal system approaches.
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A few isolated showers may develop across the western Panhandle after midnight, though any activity will be brief in nature (20-30% chance of rain). Otherwise, dry conditions are expected statewide.
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Lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s can be expected for much of the state tonight, though temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across coastal Southeast Florida.
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The local cold spot for the state will be across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee River Valley where lows will dip into thelower to middle 30sby daybreak Saturday.
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Instances ofpatchy frostcannot be ruled out in any rural or elevated locations.
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Lingering high surf and onshore winds will bring amoderatetohigh risk for rip currentsto most Florida beaches today. A low risk is expected for Northeast Florida beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, January 15, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A potent winter cold front will continue to push southward across the Peninsula today, bringing with it widely scattered showers across Central and South Florida (40-80% chance of rain).
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These scattered showers are ongoing across much of the Peninsula south of the I-4 corridor and will sweep southeastward throughout the day before pushing offshore by the late afternoon hours.
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In the wake of this front, cold, windy, and dry conditions will filter into the state.
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Breezy wind gustsupwards of 30 mphare possible this afternoon statewide.
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Across North Florida,elevated wildfire conditionswill develop this afternoon givencritically low RH values (25-30%)and breezy winds.Locally greater wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out in areas experiencing the most severe drought.
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High temperatures will struggle to climb out of the middle 40s to lower 50s across North Florida with afternoon temperatures feeling like the upper 30s to middle 40s.
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Highs will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s in Central Florida and upper 60s to middle 70s in South Florida.
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By tonight, clear and calm conditions will promote a very cold night statewide.
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AFreeze Warning is in effect for nearly all North and Central Florida, stretching as far south as Hendry County in South Florida forwidespread sub-freezing temperatures.
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AHard Freeze is likely for much of North Florida where low temperatures will reach into theupper teens to middle 20saway from the coast with widespreadpatchy frost developing by daybreak.
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Low temperatures will dip into theupper 20s to lower 30seven in Central Florida, mainly away from the coastlines as well. Coastal locations will remain in thelower to upper 30s.
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In South Florida, lows will reach thelower to upper 30s for interior locations while coastal Southeast Florida can expect lows in the lower to upper 40s.
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Cold Weather Advisoriesare also in effect for nearly the entire state tonight, as far south as Monroe and interior Miami-Dade counties, fordangerously cold sub-freezing wind chills.
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Coastal Southeast Florida may even see wind chills by daybreak Friday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
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Amoderate tohigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Florida beaches today with breezy winds and developing ocean swells.
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Surf of2-5' can be expected for most Florida beaches today; aHigh Surf Advisoryis in effect for coastal Collier county from 3 PM EST to 1AM EST for surf of4-6'.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, January 14, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Dense Fog has developed this morning throughout interior South Florida, and a Dense Fog Advisory remains in effect until 9:00 AM EST.
- A more active weather pattern returns across the state as enough moisture ahead of an approaching cold front bringing a chance for isolated to scattered showers statewide (20-40% chance of rain).
- There may be a chance for an embedded rumble of thunder or two along the Southeast Florida coast and along the coastal waters.
- Cloud cover with pockets of sunshine mixed in can be expected throughout the state.
- High temperatures will reach the lower 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to lower 70s across Central Florida and middle 70s to near 80-degrees across South Florida.
- Rain chances will gradually decrease across the Panhandle and Big Bend this evening and overnight as the cold front pushes through.
- Breezy wind gusts will develop by early Thursday morning reaching upwards of 15-25 mph, with locally stronger gusts upwards of 30-35 mph possible near the coast and along the coastal waters.
- Ahead of the front, enough moisture being pulled from the gulf waters will bring more scattered to widespread shower activity across the Peninsula (50-80% chance of rain).
- Rainfall totals will remain near 0.1-0.5”, with the greatest totals along the West Coast possibly reaching upwards of 1-1.5” locally.
- Colder air will begin to race in behind the cold front tonight across the western Panhandle dropping temperatures into the lower to middle 30s while the rest of North Florida reaching the upper 30s to middle 40s.
- With the breezy winds developing early Thursday morning, feels-like temperatures will be in the middle to upper 20s along the Panhandle and lower to middle 30s across the western Big Bend.
- Central Florida will see low temperatures in the lower to middle 50s. South Florida will see low temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
- Numerous Panhandle and East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents, with a high risk along the eastern Panhandle and Southwest Florida.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, January 13th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Frost Advisories remain in effect along the northern Suwannee Valley through 9:00 AM EST this morning.
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Slightly warmer conditions can be expected today as the cooler air mass begins to warm back up before another cold front approaches later this week.
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The linger front over the Straits and onshore winds will continue to bring isolated to widely scattered showers onshore across South Florida and portions of the Atlantic Coast (20-40% chance of rain).
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High temperatures will warm back up into the lower 60s across North Florida, upper 60s to middle 70s across Central Florida and middle to upper 70s across South Florida.
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Increasing moisture overnight and an upper-level feature overhead will give way to additional shower activity expanding nearly statewide overnight (15-35% chance of rain).
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Shower activity should remain light and brief throughout the day and overnight; however, any repeated rounds of heavier activity over urban areas along the urban southeast coast may lead to some nuisance ponding of water.
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Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to upper 40s across North Florida, 50s across Central Florida and lower to middle 60s across South Florida.
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Amoderate to high risk for rip currentscan be expected along the Panhandle and East Coast, especially with wave heights reaching the 3-5' along the East Coast.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
