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Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Wednesday, March 29, 2023

...Weakening Cold Front Continues to Push Through Florida Peninsula...Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms across South Florida...Increase Chance for Localized Flash Flooding This Afternoon and Evening Due To Heavy Downpours...Clearing Conditions Behind Frontal Boundary Across North Florida...Slightly Cooler Temperatures...Elevated Wildfire Threat Continues for North Florida and Interior Peninsula Locations...Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Persist Along Panhandle and Atlantic Coast Beaches...

Updated at 10:13 AM EDT 

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind Wildfire  Fog (Overnight) Excessive Heat Flash Flooding Rip Currents

South Florida



North Florida & Interior Peninsula



South Florida

 Panhandle, Northeast & East-Central FL

West-Central FL

Nature Coast & SW FL


Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours: 

North Florida: Lingering patchy fog will continue to lift and clear throughout the morning across portions of North Florida. In the wake of a cold front rain chances will return to near-zero after the last few days. Partly cloudy to mostly sunny conditions can be expected across the regions with the help of building high pressure to the north. Breezy winds will set up along the northeast coastline as winds gusts will reach 20-25 mph at times, and possible gusts upwards of 30 mph. Northerly to northeasterly winds will help bring cooler and drier air southward providing relief from high temperatures the last few days. High temperatures will reach into the upper 60s to middle 70s by the afternoon hours with the help of plenty of sunshine. Overnight skies will continue to clear out allowing for temperatures to cool down into the upper 40s to low 50s.

Central & South Florida: Patchy fog will continue to lift through the morning hours across interior portions of South Florida. A weakening cold front will continue to push through the central and southern peninsula bringing isolated showers and thunderstorms across the southern peninsula (30-70% chance of rain). Heavy downpours across South Florida may lead to an increased localized flash flood risk for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. The sea breeze developing in the afternoon hours could lead to an increase in strong thunderstorm activity in the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures will reach into the upper 70s to middle 80s by the afternoon hours. Overnight showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue across the southern peninsula (30-65% chance of rain). Lingering cloud cover will continue as the front shifts further south. Low temperatures overnight will be in the middle 50s to low 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to middle 70s across South Florida.


Fire Weather: In the wake of the recent cold front, northerly winds will usher in a drier and cooler airmass across North and Central Florida. Relative humidity values reaching the upper 20s to middle 30s can be expected; however, wet soils and vegetation will keep the wildfire risk minimal. Elevated rain and thunderstorm chances can be expected over the southern Peninsula, leading to increased relative humidity values (45-60%). Breezy conditions along the Atlantic Coast will continue to develop today (wind gusts reaching 20-30 mph). Given recent dry conditions, above normal temperatures, and increasing drought, an elevated wildfire risk will continue for interior portions of the Peninsula. Lightning may ignite new wildfires and winds near thunderstorms may be gusty and erratic. Localized visibility reductions due to smoke from new or existing fires and burns will remain possible, even if fog is not forecast. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 67 active wildfires across the state, burning approximately 5,129 acres.

Drought: Heavier rainfall occurred over parts of the Florida Panhandle last week (1.5-2 inches) leading to additional improvements across the region. Severe drought expanded coverage in South Florida where soil moisture decreased amid the growing wildfire danger. Severe drought also developed in a small part of Northeast Florida as rainfall deficits, both here and further south, continue to grow. Rainfall deficits over the past 14 days have reached 1-2 inches below normal across the Peninsula.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 369 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are twenty-seven counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Indian River, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, St. Lucie and Sumter) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).


Rip Currents: Brisk post-frontal flow will yield an elevated rip current risk along many Florida beaches today. A high risk of rip currents can be expected along several Panhandle, Northeast Florida, and East-Central Florida beaches. Moderate risk conditions will reside along West-Central and Southeast Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit

Marine Hazards: Northerly post-frontal winds will yield wave heights of 3-5’ along portions of the Atlantic Coast today, with isolated breakers in the surf zone reaching 6’ possible. Wave heights of 2-3’ can be expected along the Gulf Coast.

Red Tide been observed above background levels along much of Southwest Florida Coast. Medium concentrations have been sampled along Pinellas and Manatee Counties.

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.


Flash Flooding:There is no risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Showers and thunderstorms over the southern Peninsula can be expected to produce 0.25-0.5” of rainfall, with locally higher amounts of 1-2” possible around and south of Lake Okeechobee. Any rainfall accumulation over the southern Peninsula will be welcomed given ongoing drought conditions.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning for the Apalachicola River near Blountstown will go into effect this evening until further notice. Minor flooding is forecast, courtesy of recent heavy rainfall. Additional rivers across North Florida are forecast to reach Action Stage (bank-full) in response to the recent heavy rainfall. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 14.66 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.33 feet above normal for this time of year.

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