Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Tuesday, May 17, 2022

...Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms Today Across the State, Best Chance of Rain in Northeast Florida...Hot Today With High Temperatures in the Lower 90s Inland...A Few Storms Could Be Strong...Areas of Fog May Develop Over North and Central Florida Tonight...Elevated Wildfire Conditions Persist Statewide, Especially in Drought Areas...Elevated Rip Current Conditions Persist for Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...

Updated at 8:40 AM EDT

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind/Hail Flooding  Fog Excessive Heat Wildfire Rip Currents

Northeast Florida





North & Central Florida



Panhandle & East Coast

West Coast


Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

A mixture of sun and clouds is expected across the state today with isolated showers and thunderstorms ongoing this morning near the coasts. Showers and thunderstorms will generally move inland throughout the day and increase in coverage (20-40% chance of rain). The best chance of rain will be late in the afternoon across inland Northeast Florida and along the US-27 corridor in the Peninsula. A few storms could contain frequent lightning, gusty winds, small hail, and locally heavy rainfall.

Thunderstorms will remain possible through the evening, but rain chances should decrease after sunset. A stray shower or thunderstorms will remain possible overnight near the coast. High temperatures will rise into the upper 80s to lower 90s statewide today. With some humidity today, the heat index or what temperatures feel like will be in the middle 90s. Low temperatures will remain mild in the 60s and 70s overnight. Areas of patchy fog may develop late tonight across inland areas, particularly in the Big Bend and Central Florida.


Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days in the Atlantic Basin.

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks for the 2022 hurricane season. These outlooks show areas of possible tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and next 5 days. Outlooks are issued every 6 hours at 8am, 2pm, 8pm, and 2am eastern time, or as conditions warrant. Hurricane season officially begins June 1.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center at


Fire Weather: An elevated wildfire threat will continue statewide, especially in the dry/drought areas. Winds will be light today, generally driven by the sea breeze (sustained at 5-10 mph gusting to 15-20 mph in the afternoon). Relative humidity will near critical levels across inland areas (falling to 30-45%). Winds will be calm overnight, and humidity nears 100%. Dangerous smoke-fog could develop near any ongoing wildfires or burns tonight. Lightning could ignite new wildfires. Winds could be gusty and erratic near any thunderstorms.

According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 56 active wildfires in the state, totaling approximately 855 acres.

A County Burn Ban is in effect for Collier and Hendry county; with Duval, Hillsborough, Orange, and Pinellas banned year-round.

Drought: Rainfall totals in the Peninsula over the past week resulted in improving drought conditions across the Peninsula, with minor reductions of the moderate and severe drought regions. Short-term dryness and decreasing soil moisture levels continue Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions along the Panhandle coastline and Big Bend.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 352 (-10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 6 counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger), but localized areas of many additional South Florida counties remain over 500.


Rip Currents: Onshore winds will continue a moderate risk of rip currents at eastern Panhandle and most Atlantic beaches. A low risk is expected in Southeast Florida and along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit

Marine Hazards: Wave heights will be 1-3’ statewide.

Red Tide has been observed at very low concentrations in Walton County, but not observed elsewhere. Blue-green algae blooms have been reported across inland, freshwater bodies of water according to FDEP.

Coastal Flooding: Tides are running 1-2’ above normal across much of the state due to the full moon. Nuisance to minor flooding of low-lying areas near the water may occur at high tide. Some Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements are in effect into tonight.


Flash Flooding: There is no organized threat for flash flooding today. Locally heavy rainfall is possible in any thunderstorms, however, that could result in minor street flooding. Localized rainfall totals of 1-3” are possible today.

Riverine Flooding: There are no active River Flood Warnings across the state. All Florida rivers, creeks, and lakes remain below flood stage. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.69 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.60 feet below normal for this time of year. Pulse releases continue down the Caloosahatchee.

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