Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, August 14, 2026
...Isolated to Scattered Thunderstorms Expected Across the State this Afternoon (30-60% Chance of Rain)... Gusty Winds, Lightning, and Torrential Downpours the Primary Hazards with Strongest Activity.... Oppressive Heat and Humidity Continue, with Heat Index Values Peaking in the Middle 100s to Lower 110s; Extreme Heat Warnings in Effect for the Eastern Panhandle and Big Bend...Heat Advisories Issued Throughout the Remainder of the State Today.. Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Outlooked for Eastern Panhandle and Most East Coast Beaches... Invest 92L No Longer Expected to Develop (20% Chance); Invest 94L in the Central Atlantic Has a 50% Chance of Development; No Threat to Florida at this Time...
Updated at 8:07 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Northeast FL Statewide |
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Iso. Statewide |
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Eastern Panhandle & Big Bend Statewide
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Iso. Peninsula
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Eastern Panhandle East-Central & Southeast FL Rest of State |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will continue to dominate the local pattern across the Southeast U.S., bringing another rinse and repeat day with isolated to widely scattered showers and storms developing between 1-3 PM EDT across much of the state along the sea breezes (30-45% chance of rain). A bit higher coverage of activity is expected throughout interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee River Valley where sea breeze collisions and interactions will focus (40-60% chance of rain). Any thunderstorm activity could become locally strong to severe and capable of producing lightning, gusty winds (30-50 mph), and torrential downpours. Rainfall rates may reach upwards of 1-2” per hour under the heaviest thunderstorm activity, which could lead to nuisance flooding in urban and poor drainage locations.
Another oppressively hot day is expected today with high temperatures climbing into the middle to upper 90s across interior locations with lower 90s along the coasts. Humidity levels will remain elevated, meaning afternoon heat index values will peak in the middle 100s to lower 110s for most locations. An Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for portions of the Big Bend and eastern Panhandle where feels-like temperatures could reach up to 115-degrees. A Heat Advisory is in effect across the remainder of the state today. Any prolonged exposure to the heat without adequate cooling or safety precautions may lead to heat related illnesses.
Tonight, showers and thunderstorms will linger into the evening across the Peninsula, waning after sunset and dissipating before midnight. Lows will fall into the middle 70s to lower 80s across the state.
Central Tropical Atlantic (Invest 92L): A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Windward Islands is producing gusty winds and a large area of showers and thunderstorms. This system is moving into a region of increasing upper-level winds and dry air, and the potential of development continues to decrease.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 94L): A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic, located more than 1000 miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands, continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be generally conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form this weekend or early next week while the wave moves westward or west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for eastern Panhandle, East-Central, and Southeast Florida beaches today with a low risk for all other statewide beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf near 1-3’ is expected for all statewide beaches today.
Red Tide: was observed at background concentrations in Hillsborough, Manatee, Charlotte, Collier, and Wakulla counties and background to low concentrations in Nassau and Duval counties (valid 8/7/26).
Coastal Flooding: A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys for instances of minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide.
Fire Weather: The overall wildfire threat will remain low today given relative humidities staying well above critical thresholds and winds remaining light. Scattered to numerous shower and thunderstorm activity is expected throughout much of the state today. Any thunderstorm activity may be accompanied by lightning and gusty/erratic winds, which can spark new wildfires or reignite existing ones. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 15 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 378 acres.
Drought (8/11/26): Only minor improvements were observed on this week’s Drought Monitor update with daily scattered sea breeze showers and storms bringing largely near to below normal rainfall to much of the state. The biggest changes were observed across portions of Central Florida, with much of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) across northern Osceola County and central Orange County trimmed to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Portions of northwestern Hillsborough, central and eastern Pasco, southern Hernando, and western Lake counties also saw a one category improvement back down to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4). Abnormally dry (receding drought) conditions have also replaced the moderate drought across eastern portions of Volusia, Orange, Seminole, and Osceola counties as well as interior Marion, Sumter, and Citrus counties. Across portions of Southeast Florida, the moderate drought (level 1 of 4) has expanded back towards the coast to cover more of Palm Beach County, and the severe drought (level 2 of 4) has expanded to include coastal Miami-Dade county. No other significant changes were observed this week. Areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) are still found across portions of the lower Suwannee River Valley, West-Central Florida, and interior South Florida with severe drought (level 2 of 4) largely surrounding those areas. Portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend remain under abnormally dry to moderate drought (level 1 of 4) conditions. Nearly 9% of the state remains in an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). 10% of the state remains under no drought designation. Looking ahead, the state will remain in a more typical summertime pattern of daily showers and thunderstorms, with most activity focused throughout the Peninsula. Drought improvements within this pattern will likely be minimal (if at all) and focused in areas that receive daily rounds of heavy thunderstorms. Localized areas will likely see gradual categorical drought degradations (worsening drought), especially if they miss out on the scattered rainfall with hot summertime temperatures expected.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 303 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 3 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms across the state this afternoon may contain localized rainfall rates upwards of 1-2” per hour. Instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out, especially in urban and poor drainage locations that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours. Total rainfall amounts through tonight will generally add up to 0.5-1” in areas that do receive rainfall, though locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out. For more information, visit the Weather Prediction Center.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.02 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.93 feet below normal for this time of year.
