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Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
 

Sunday, February 25, 2024

...Cool Start This Morning As Weak Cool Front Moves Through Northeast Florida Before Dissipating...High Pressure Along Northern Gulf of Mexico to Keep Conditions Mostly Sunny and Dry...Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Conditions Across the State Due to Near or Below Critical Relative Humidity Values This Afternoon...Lighter Winds Compared to Yesterday to Prevent Red Flag Conditions...Cool and Dry Conditions to Continue to Continue Overnight...Areas of Patchy Frost Possible Overnight and Early Monday Morning Across Suwannee River Valley...High Risk for Rip Currents Along West Coast Due to Onshore Winds; Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast...

Updated at 9:54 AM EST

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Damaging Winds/Hail Tornado Freeze (Overnight)  Wildfire River Flooding Coastal Flooding Rip Currents

 

 

 

 

Iso. Suwannee River Valley

North & Central Florida

Statewide

 

 

 

West Coast

East Coast & Panhandle

Elsewhere

 

Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

A weak cool front will move in across Northeast Florida this morning from the Carolina’s before dissipating as it approaches the I-75 corridor. High pressure will continue to dominate across the Sunshine State bringing cool and dry conditions throughout the day (near 0% chance of rain). The area of high pressure will slowly move over eastward along the northern Gulf of Mexico and towards the Southeastern U.S. coastline. Lighter winds can be expected today compared to yesterday; however, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions can be expected statewide as relative humidity values will fall below critical thresholds this afternoon (low 20% to low 30%). Plenty of sunshine will allow for high temperatures to reach the upper 60s to low 70s across North and Central Florida and middle 70s across South Florida. Onshore winds across the coastlines will help to keep coastal areas slightly cooler compared to interior areas.

Mostly dry and clear conditions can be expected to continue through the evening and overnight hours. Relative humidity values will start to slowly recover through the overnight hours, and over the next few days, as high pressure begins to shift eastward. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s across the Suwannee River Valley in the wake of the weak reinforcing front that passed through during the morning hours. Calm winds and clear skies may give way for areas of patchy frost to develop overnight and early Monday morning throughout the region. Across the rest of the North Florida low temperatures in the low to middle 40s can be expected. Central Florida will see low temperatures in the upper 40s to low 50s, and South Florida will see low temperatures in the middle to upper 50s and low 60s.

 

Rip Currents: Onshore winds will give way to a high risk for risk for currents along the West Coast. Lingering wave heights and onshore winds will create a moderate risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast beaches. A low risk for rip currents can be expected elsewhere. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: A lingering ocean swell along Space and Treasure Coast creating wave heights 4-5’, with possible breaking waves upwards of 6’. The rest of the East Coast can also expect wave heights of 2-3’. Panhandle and West Coast can expect wave heights of 2-3’ throughout the day. Red Tide has not been observed above background levels over the past week.

Coastal Flooding: There is no organized risk for coastal flooding. 

 

Fire Weather: Sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions can be expected to continue nearly statewide, with the greatest dry conditions across the I-10 corridor. Relative humidity values will fall below critical thresholds this afternoon and evening as dry air lingers (low 20% to middle 30%). Calmer winds can be expected compared to yesterday with winds below 10 mph with gusts below 15 mph. Lighter winds will help to prevent Red Flag Conditions across the state. Low level fuel dryness and fair dispersions will also contribute to elevated wildfire conditions across the state; however, relative humidity values will begin to slowly recover early this upcoming week. Burning is not advised today, especially through the afternoon and early evening. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 38 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2232 acres.

Drought: Despite portions of the Peninsula receiving 2” or more of rainfall this past weekend, no changes have been made to this week’s drought update. Abnormally dry to moderate drought conditions persist along the Tampa Bay region from Pasco to Sarasota county. While short term conditions are expected to remain relatively dry through the weekend, above average rainfall anticipated over the next 30 days may help to alleviate drought conditions in the region.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 44 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).

 

Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.

Riverine Flooding: All Florida rivers, creeks and waterways are below flood stage. Portions of the lower Apalachicola River may continue to see instances of local rises in water levels and could reach Action Stage (bank-full) as water flows downstream. Portions of the Santa Fe River Basin remain within Action Stage following heavy rainfall last weekend; however, no river flooding is expected. River flooding is not expected over the next several days and there are no riverine concerns. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 16.28 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.74 feet above normal for this time of year.

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