Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyMonday, March 18, 2024
...Showers and Thunderstorms Continue to Push Onshore Along the Nature Coast; Expanding into the Florida Peninsula...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...Locally Damaging Wind Gusts, Lightning, Large Hail, and Isolated Tornadoes Possible...Breezy Conditions Develop Over North Florida...Near-Freezing Temperatures Expected Overnight for Interior Florida Panhandle Locations...Minor Flooding Continue for Portions of Apalachicola River...Moderate Rip Current Risk Expected for Panhandle, Southwest Florida, and East-Central Florida Beaches...High Risk Continues for Gulf County Beaches...
Updated at 10:15 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
Lightning | Damaging Winds/Hail | Tornado | Freeze (Overnight) | Wildfire | River Flooding | Fog (Overnight) | Rip Currents |
Florida Peninsula Northeast & Southeast Florida |
Central Florida |
Iso. Space and Treasure Coasts |
Locally Florida Panhandle |
|
Apalachicola River near Blountstown
|
Gulf County Florida Panhandle, East-Central Florida, and Southwest Florida Elsewhere |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Showers and embedded thunderstorms are continuing to push onshore the Nature Coast this morning, with the heaviest activity residing just north of I-4. Rain chances will continue to overspread through Central Florida this afternoon (55-75% chance of rain) as a cold front advances southeastward through the state. Atmospheric conditions support the development of a few strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), frequent lightning, instances of large hail (1-1.5” in diameter, or quarter to ping pong ball size), and heavy downpours. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk for Severe Weather (level 1 of 5) over Central Florida and along the Southeast Florida I-95 corridor during the daytime heating hours. A brief, isolated tornado cannot be ruled out along the immediate Space Coast as the sea breeze attempts to move onshore. Afternoon high temperatures will be warm in the middle to upper 80s, with temperatures feeling like the lower to middle 90s over the interior southern Peninsula. Rain chances become increasingly scarce late this afternoon and evening, with only a lingering 20-30% chance of rain and thunderstorms tonight. Low temperatures will remain far more mild than North Florida locations, with overnight temperatures in the 50s expected over Central Florida, the 60s across South Florida, and the 70s along the Florida Keys.
In the wake of the cold front, northerly winds and near-zero rain chances can be expected along the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend. Afternoon high temperatures will stay in the upper 60s to lower 70s this afternoon, despite the clearing skies. Sustained winds of 10-15 mph out of the north to northwest can be expected to build through the afternoon hours, with wind gusts reaching 20-25 mph. Northerly winds will usher much colder temperatures tonight, with lows falling to near freezing (33-36-degrees) over the interior Florida Panhandle and the upper 30s to lower 40s along the coastline and into the Suwannee River Valley. Lingering breezy conditions overnight and the lack of moisture will likely limit the development of frost overnight.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected along many Florida Panhandle, East-Central Florida, and Southwest Florida beaches today. A locally high risk of rip currents will continue for Gulf County beaches. Low risk conditions persist elsewhere. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 2-3’ can be expected along the Florida Panhandle coastline, with breakers remaining between 1-2’ along all remaining Florida beaches. Red Tide was not observed above background levels along any Florida coastline.
Coastal Flooding: There is no organized risk for coastal flooding.
Fire Weather: Rain chances spread into the Florida Peninsula today, limiting the wildfire risk this afternoon; however, lightning within thunderstorms could spark new wildfires and winds may be gusty/erratic in the more organized thunderstorm activity. Northerly winds in the wake of the cold front will allow for relative humidity values to fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s along the Florida Panhandle this afternoon. Winds of 10-15 mph will continue to build through the afternoon, with wind gusts reaching 20-25 mph at times. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 22 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 205 acres.
Drought: Improvements to conditions have been noted on this week’s drought monitor update in response to heavy rainfall received over the past week. Increased shower and thunderstorm activity this past weekend has allow for above normal rainfall to return to North Florida over the past 7 days (2-4” above normal), eliminating Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions along the Western Panhandle. Unfortunately, long-term rainfall deficits continue to promote Abnormally Dry conditions along West-Central Florida. Above normal rainfall expected across the state over the next week may help to alleviate dry conditions in the Western Peninsula on next week’s drought update.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 141 (+11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Showers and thunderstorms today will be capable of producing a quick 0.5-1” of rainfall this afternoon, with locally higher amounts of 2” possible. Localized nuisance flooding or ponding of water on roadways cannot be ruled out over the Florida Peninsula urban corridors, especially for locations that experience multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the Apalachicola River near Blountstown until further notice as minor flooding continues. All other North Florida rivers have fallen below flood stage. Upcoming dry weather will allow elevated North Florida water levels to continue flushing water and generally recede. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.75 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.33 feet above normal for this time of year.