Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management MeteorologyFriday, July 26, 2024
...Scattered To Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Nearly Statewide With the Sea Breezes This Afternoon and Evening...Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding Across North and Central Florida; Localized Flooding Possible With Heavy Downpours In Slow-Moving Showers and Thunderstorms...Drier Conditions Across Southeast Coast and Keys...Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Producing Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, and Heavy Downpours Cannot Be Ruled Out...Heat Indices In the Upper 90s and Triple Digits (100-105) Nearly Statewide...Moderate Risk For Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast...Areas of Patchy to Locally Dense Fog Cannot Be Ruled Out Overnight Into Early Saturday Morning...
Updated at 8:48 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
| No Threat | Low Threat | Medium Threat | High Threat |
| Lightning | Tornado | Damaging Wind | Hail | Flash Flooding | Excessive Heat | Fog (Overnight) | Rip Currents |
|
N-Peninsula FL Panhandle & W-Peninsula SE FL & Keys |
|
Locally Iso. Statewide |
|
North & Central FL Iso. Statewide |
W-Central & S FL Statewide |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure building over the state combined with deep tropical moisture will drive daily showers and thunderstorms over the next few days. Despite slightly drier air along the Florida Panhandle than seen over the past few days, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across North Florida with the sea breezes this afternoon and evening (60-85% chance of rain). With increasing moisture along the Peninsula, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected across Central and South Florida along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and evening, primarily over interior and western portions of the Peninsula as the Gulf and Atlantic sea breezes collide (45-75% chance of rain). The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida and portions of Central Florida where heavy downpours in slow-moving thunderstorms could produce localized flooding at times over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas and over already saturated grounds. Plumes of Saharan Dust lingering along the Keys and the Southeast and Central-East Coasts will allow for only isolated activity with the sea breezes today (15-35% chance of rain). Organized severe weather is not anticipated, but any thunderstorm that develops over the state could become strong to severe. Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops could produce frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph) and heavy downpours.
Cloud cover and rain-cooled air will keep high temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s across the state. Heat indices will reach the upper 90s and triple digits (100-105). The “coolest” conditions can be expected across the Big Bend with heat indices in the middle to upper 90s due to saturated grounds and earlier onset of cloud cover and thunderstorms. Localized areas could briefly see heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria during the afternoon before cloud cover or thunderstorms move in overhead.
Low temperatures will remain in the middle 70s to middle 80s overnight. Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the early overnight hours as they follow the sea breeze boundaries back towards the coast and gradually dissipate (15-35% chance of rain). A few showers and thunderstorms will likely linger through the overnight hours across the Northern and Western Peninsula (40-60% chance of rain). Areas of patchy to locally dense fog cannot be ruled out overnight and early Saturday morning over saturated grounds thanks to calm conditions developing overnight.
Rip Currents: East Coast and Florida Panhandle beaches will continue to see a low to moderate risk for rip currents today while West Coast beaches can continue to expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: 1-3’ wave heights will persist today along the Florida Atlantic Coast today with locally 4’ waves further offshore of the Northeast Coast while the rest of the state remains near 1-2’.
Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week (as of 7/19).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding.
Tropical cyclone development is not expected during the next 7 days.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: High pressure and deep tropical moisture will give way to scattered to numerous sea breeze showers and thunderstorms across the state today. Thunderstorms throughout the day will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. This deep tropical moisture will keep relative humidity values well above critical thresholds. Plumes of Saharan Dust lingering along the Keys will limit shower and thunderstorm activity through the period; however, low-level moisture will keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds in the afternoons. Winds will remain light near 5-10 mph with wind gusts upwards of 10-15 mph developing in the afternoons with the sea breezes. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog cannot be ruled out overnight and early Saturday morning over saturated grounds. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 19 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 234 acres.
Drought: While above-normal temperatures have persisted over the past week, heavy rainfall across portions of North Florida have allowed drought conditions to improve on this week’s drought monitor update (7/25). Moderate drought conditions have been entirely removed from North Florida and abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have ben removed from the Northeast Coast and Western Big Bend. Abnormally dry conditions remain in place across the Eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley. Drought conditions have also begun to improve south of the I-4 corridor in Central Florida with only localized areas of abnormally dry conditions remaining between Bartow and Sebring and near Melbourne. An isolated pocket of moderate drought conditions persists near Melbourne. Above normal temperatures and slightly above normal rainfall are expected across much of the state over the next week.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 172 (-17) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida Counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida and portions of Central Florida as a very moist airmass lingering ahead of a near stationary front draped over the Southeast U.S. will likely bring widespread heavy rainfall. Abundant moisture will give way to scattered to numerous thunderstorms, with some of them producing potentially heavy and torrential downpours at times. Heavy downpours and rainfall rates could bring localized flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Any slow-moving or training thunderstorms will also create the potential for localized flash flooding for areas. Saturated grounds and soils locally may increase the potential for localized flooding with the additional onset of heavy rainfall throughout the day. Any thunderstorm across the state will be capable of producing heavy downpours that lead to localized flooding. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
Riverine Flooding: All Florida rivers, creeks and waterways remain below flood stage. The Shoal River near Crestview has risen into Action Stage (bank-full) in response to recent heavy rainfall and water levels are forecast to continue gradually increasing over the next few days. Additional rainfall could lead to local rises in water levels; however, it will depend on where the heaviest rainfall occurs and how much. There are no additional riverine concerns. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.55 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.16 feet below normal for this time of year.
