Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents persists nearly statewide today with a moderate risk returning along the Panhandle. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the Florida Atlantic Coast through this evening as large breaking waves of 6-13’ persist in the surf in the wave of Hurricane Milton and with the help of breezy onshore winds, creating hazardous beach and boating conditions. Breaking waves will return to near 3-6’ elsewhere across the state by this afternoon.

Red Tide has been observed in 22 samples collected from Southwest Florida over the past week (as of 10/4). Background to high concentrations were observed in and offshore of Pinellas County and background concentrations were observed in Sarasota County. Respiratory irritation suspected to be related to red tide was reported in Southwest Florida over the last week.

Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Warnings remain in effect through Saturday morning along portions of the First Coast and through this afternoon along portions of the Space and Treasure Coasts as breezy onshore winds, high surf, and already elevated tides along the East Coast in the wake of Hurricane give way to continued instances of significant coastal flooding. Coastal Flood Warnings are also in effect along the St. Johns River Basin through Sunday morning as heavy rainfall filtering in and trapped tides within the basin give way to significant coastal flooding. Minor to moderate coastal flooding will likely persist even at times of low tide along the St. Johns River Basin and will be possible at times of low tide along portions of the Northeast Coast. A Coastal Flood Advisory has been issued for Friday afternoon through Saturday morning along coastal St. Johns and Flagler County for minor coastal flooding during times of high tide. Coastal Flood Advisories and Statements extend through the Southeast Coast and Keys as minor to locally moderate coastal flooding near and at times of high tide. Some shoreline erosion will also be possible along these impacted coastlines.

Tropical Storm Leslie: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Leslie is located about 1,635 miles west-southwest of the Azores and is moving northward at 10 mph. A turn toward the north-northeast is expected later today, followed by a turn to the northeast with an increase in forward speed through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph. Gradual weakening is forecast to continue and Leslie is expected to become a post-tropical cyclone in a couple of days. Leslie poses no threat to Florida.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest 94L): Satellite imagery indicates that shower and thunderstorm activity is currently displaced to the east of the low-level center of an area of low pressure located over the southwestern portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. Some additional development is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression or storm could form while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10-15 mph across the Cabo Verde Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday, environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of development, localized areas of heavy rain and gusty winds are likely across portions of the Cabo Verde Islands. The NHC is outlooking a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 48 hours, and a medium (40%) chance of development over the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida through the next 7-10 days at least.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Fire Weather: Tropical moisture and widespread rainfall allow for a minimal wildfire threat along the Peninsula and Keys today. Drier air filtering in along the Florida Panhandle will allow minimum relative humidity values to dip into the 45-60% range this afternoon. Locally sensitive wildfire conditions may be possible along the Panhandle where abnormally dry conditions persist. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 4 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 53.10 acres.

Drought: Improvements were made to this week’s drought monitor (10/3) as moderate drought conditions were removed completely along the western Florida Panhandle. Abnormally dry conditions persist through western Walton County as long-term drought conditions still linger from drier conditions during the late summer months. Rainfall from both Francine and Helene have helped to improve drought conditions due to widespread rainfall.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 102 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida Counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger). 

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Mostly dry conditions are expected across the state throughout the day with a few isolated to scattered showers possible along eastern and southern portions of the Peninsula. While there is no organized risk for flash flooding, any additional rainfall over impacted regions or areas still experiencing ongoing flooding, either areal or riverine, could exacerbate conditions. Rainfall totals should remain below an inch; however, any locally heavier downpours could bring 1-2" of rainfall along the East Coast.

Riverine Flooding: Heavy and widespread rainfall from Hurricane Milton has already led to a riverine response across numerous basins extending from West-Central Florida, Central Florida and Northeast Florida. Widespread moderate to major riverine flooding has developed and is expected to continue for the next several days as above normal streamflows continue, and some rivers are forecast to approach or break record levels. Major Flood Stage is ongoing along the Anclote River near Elfers at Little Road, Cypress Creek at SR-54, Hillsborough River near Zephyrhills, Alafia River at Lithia Pinecrest Road at Lithia, St. Johns River at Astor, and Little Wekiva River near Altamonte Springs. Moderate flooding is ongoing along the Hillsborough River at Morris Bridge and St. Johns River near Deland and minor flooding is ongoing along the Withlacoochee River at US-301 Trilby and St. Johns River above Lake Harney. All these rivers are forecast to rise into Major Flood Stage within the next few days. Along the St. Johns River, numerous tidal points for the lower St. Johns are also within Moderate to Major Flood Stage. Water levels have reached Minor Flood Stage along the Withlacoochee River near Holder at SR-200, Myakka river at Myakka River State Park, Horse Creek near Arcadia SR-72, Peace River (at SR-60 Bartow and at SR-70 Arcadia), and the St. Johns River near Sanford and are forecast to continue rising, reaching Moderate Flood Stage in the coming days. Moderate flooding continues along the Little Manatee near Wimauma and minor flooding continues along the Manatee River near Myakka Head at SR-64 and South Fork Black Creek near Penney Farms as water levels gradually decline. Minor flooding is occurring or forecast along the Withlacoochee River at US-41 Dunnellon Peace River at Zolfo Springs, and Santa Fe River (Three Rivers Estates, Fort White, O’leno, Worthington Springs). For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 15.98 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.96 feet above normal for this time of year.