Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, July 15, 2025
...Active and Stormy Pattern Continues for Florida...Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Increasingly Likely This Afternoon...Localized Flash Flooding and Ponding Water Possible...Flood Watches in Effect Throughout Central Peninsula...Triple Digit Heat Index Values Develop Statewide...Heat Advisories in Effect for North Florida; Temperatures to Feel Like 106 to 110-degrees...Elevated Risk of Rip Currents Continues for Florida Panhandle & East Coast Beaches...Invest 93L Continues to Have Medium (40%) Chance of Tropical Development Over the Northern Gulf During the Next 7 Days; Heavy Rains and Thunderstorms to Increase Flooding Concerns...
Updated at 11:49 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Statewide |
Central & South Florida: Locally Statewide |
North Florida Statewide |
Florida Panhandle, Northeast Florida & Space Coast Peninsula |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A disorganized area of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving onshore the Space Coast this morning associated with Invest 93L. This will set the stage for an active weather day across the state. These showers and thunderstorms will trek across the central Peninsula throughout today from east to west (90-near 100% chance of rain). Sea breeze thunderstorms will initiate across North and South Florida this afternoon, especially with the help of daytime heating (70-90% chance of rain). A Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Flash Flooding is outlooked for the central Florida peninsula associated with Invest 93L heavy rains. Ingredients will support flash flooding and ponding of water throughout the state of Florida today, especially in urban and poor drainage locations that experience prolonged heavy rainfall rates. Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible, especially during the peak heating hours of the day and along the sea breeze. These stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph) and heavy downpours.
Hot and humid conditions persist across the Sunshine State, with afternoon high temperatures reaching the middle 80s to middle 90s statewide. Triple digit heat index values (98 to 105-degrees) can be expected across North and Central Florida before shower and thunderstorm activity increases. Heat Advisories to go into effect across portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon where heat index values upwards of 108-degrees can be expected. South Florida can expect to see heat index values in the middle to upper 90s with increased cloud cover and rain chances.
While typical shower and thunderstorm activity across the I-10 corridor will largely taper off after sunset, rain chances remain elevated overnight across Central and South Florida (60-80% chance of rain). Low temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s statewide.
Northeastern Gulf: An area of low pressure, located offshore the East Coast of Florida, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms this morning. This disturbance is forecast to move westward across Florida during the next day or so, and into the northeastern Gulf by late Tuesday. Conditions appear favorable and some gradual development of this system is possible while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the northern Gulf during the middle to latter parts of the week. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could produce localized flash flooding over portions of Floridan and the north-central Gulf Coast through the week.
Formation chance through 48 hours... low (10%).
Formation chance through 7 days... low (30%).
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along most Florida Panhandle, Northeast Florida, and Space Coast beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along statewide beaches. Wave heights will increase to 3-4’ for Northeast Florida beaches late this evening and overnight.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 7/11).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Invest 93L will trek across central Florida today bringing another day of numerous to widespread shower and embedded thunderstorm activity, keeping relative humidity values above critical thresholds statewide. Northerly to northeasterly winds will filter in slightly drier air to interior portions of the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend (50-55%); however, daily showers and thunderstorms will still develop along the afternoon sea breeze during the peak heating hours of the day. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing very frequent lightning and gusty/erratic winds which may lead to new ignitions or localized spread of existing brush fires. Elevated rain chances and improving soil/vegetation saturation will keep the overall wildfire threat low. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 40 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 15,586 acres.
Drought: Improvements continue to be made along the Florida West Coast with the wet and active weather pattern that brought plentiful rainfall last week of 2-4”. Moderate drought (level 1 of 4) was nearly removed along the Florida West Coast through Central Collier County, except for a portion of Nature Coast where longer term drought conditions and lower streamflow. Conditions largely remain unchanged along the I-95 corridor, with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding across Southeast Florida. Central Palm Beach County continues to see extreme drought conditions (level 3 of 4) where the heaviest rainfall continues to miss the area.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 196 (-9) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). Zero Florida counties have an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity can be expected across much of the Florida Peninsula today. A Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been issued across central Florida where the greatest rainfall is expected from Invest 93L. Already saturated soils from yesterday’s rainfall may lead to an earlier onset to flash flooding and ponding water this afternoon, especially for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Elevated rain chances remain nearly statewide, with a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding covering the rest of the state. Widespread 2-3” of rain can be expected across the Florida Peninsula, mainly south of the Suwanee Valley; locally higher amounts upwards of 4-7” are possible for locations along the I-4 corridor where Invest 93L tracks along. Typical summertime thunderstorms across North Florida will have the ability to produce a quick 1-2” of rainfall.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for Horse Creek near Arcadia at SR 72 until further notice as minor riverine flooding is forecast later this week and weekend due to recent and forecast heavy rainfall. Forecast heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula may lead to a riverine response for several other West Florida rivers, creeks/streams, and waterways through the week, including portions of the Alafia, Myakka, and Peace Rivers. These rivers may reach Action Stage (bank-full) by the middle of this week. Quicker-response creeks including Fisheating Creek may rise into Minor Flood Stage with multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity. Riverine conditions will be heavily dependent upon where the greatest rainfall totals occur in each basin, additional updates to these forecasts will be likely through the week. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.67 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.91 feet below normal for this time of year.
