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Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Wednesday, May 29, 2024

...Drier Condition Return Across North and Central Florida Courtesy of High Pressure Over U.S. Southeast...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms Developing This Afternoon and Evening South of I-4 Corridor Along Sea Breeze...Isolated Strong to Locally Severe Thunderstorms Possible; Frequent Lightning, Gusty Winds, Small Hail and Heavy Downpours...Localized Flash Flooding Possible Across Southeast Metro During Heavy Rainfall...Senstive to Elevated Wildfire Conditions Across North and Interior Central Florida Due to Critical Reatlive Humidity Values...Heat Index Values Remain in the Near Triple Digits Across Portions of Central and South Florida...

Updated at 10:01 AM EDT

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornado Damaging Wind/Hail Flash Flooding Excessive Heat Wildfire Fog (Overnight) Rip Currents

Southeast Florida

Space Coast & South Florida



South Florida

Southeast Metro

Iso. South Florida

Iso. Southeast FL

Central & South Florida

Int. Central Florida

Northeast & Central Florida

Iso. North Florida


Panhandle & East-Central Florida




Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

Patchy to locally dense fog has lifted and cleared this morning across the Suwannee Valley and interior Nature Coast. Dry conditions can be expected across North Florida and through Central Florida towards the I-4 corridor as high pressure develops over the U.S. Southeast. Much drier air will filter southward throughout the day bringing some relief to recent humid conditions. Yesterday’s cold front has stalled and remains draped across Central Florida, which will keep all possible shower and thunderstorm activity south of the I-4 corridor. The sea breeze boundaries will move inland across South Florida throughout the day, allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop during the peak heating hours of the afternoon and evening (20-50% chance of rain). Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms may be possible through the evening hours, and may be capable of producing frequent lightning, locally gusty winds (40-55 mph), small hail (dime size) and heavy downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Southeast Metro as heavy and torrential downpours will be possible within showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze and may lead to localized flash flooding across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Drier air will limit shower and thunderstorm activity into Central Florida; however, an isolated shower or thunderstorm or two may be possible closer to the Space Coast where there is greater moisture available for activity to develop along the sea breeze. High temperatures will warm up into the low to middle 90s this afternoon, with portions of interior Central Florida reaching the upper 90s. Heat index values will find some relief across North Florida due to drier air; however, heat index values will reach the low 90s. Warm temperatures and lingering moisture will lead to heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s along and south of the I-4 corridor. Portions of Southeast Florida, mostly along the immediate coastline and metro areas, could see heat index values upwards of 105-degrees.

Showers and thunderstorms across South Florida will continue through the evening and early overnight hours as they move eastward with the sea breeze back towards the coastline (20-35% chance of rain). Once activity pushes offshore from the coastline overnight, mostly dry conditions can be expected through the rest of the overnight hours. Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to low 70s across North Florida, low to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to low 80s across South Florida and the Keys.


Rip Currents: Panhandle beaches and Space Coast beaches will see a moderate risk for rip currents due to westerly winds. All other beaches can expect a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit

Marine Hazards: 1-2’ wave heights can be expected statewide today.

Red Tide has not been observed at or above background levels over the past week.

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.




Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.


On May 23, NOAA released their outlook for the 2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season. NOAA is outlooking an 85% chance of an above-normal season this year and is forecasting a range of 17-25 total named storms, 8-13 hurricanes, and 4-7 major hurricanes. Forecasters have a 70% confidence in these ranges. 

The National Hurricane Center has begun issuing regular Tropical Weather Outlooks for the 2024 hurricane season as of May 15. These outlooks show areas of possible tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours and next 7 days. Outlooks are issued every 6 hours at 8am, 2pm, 8pm, and 2am eastern time, or as conditions warrant. The Atlantic Hurricane Season officials begins June 1 and runs until November 30; however, tropical development is still possible outside of this official season.


For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at


Fire Weather: Much drier conditions can be expected across interior North and Central Florida this afternoon as drier air filters southward courtesy of high pressure over the U.S. Southeast. Relative humidity values will fall below critical thresholds this afternoon through interior Central Florida, creating sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon (25-35% chance of rain). The greater threat for wildfire conditions will remain across interior Central Florida where recent temperatures have been above normal for this time of year, and rainfall totals are below normal where they should be. The more active weather pattern in the month of May will keep grounds and soils saturated across the Panhandle, which will help to keep wildfire conditions locally sensitive. Light winds and wind gusts will help to prevent Red Flag Conditions. Sea breeze showers and thunderstorms will develop across South Florida this afternoon and evening, bringing frequent lightning and gusty winds at times. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 76 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4147 acres.

Drought: While heavy rainfall was observed across portions of the state over the past week, Central and South Florida continue to see very limited rainfall an above normal temperatures (2-8-degress above normal), leading to additional expansions in drought conditions on this week’s update as 90-day drought-related conditions continue to deteriorate. Moderate Drought conditions now span from the West Coast to the East Coast from south of Lake Okeechobee and northward to a line from Sarasota to Melbourne. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have expanded further along the I-4 corridor and south of Lake Okeechobee to Miami. Continued above normal temperatures and near normal precipitation over the next 6-10 days will likely continue to exacerbate drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 412 (+14) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 24 Florida counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Hillsborough, Indian River, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pinellas, Sarasota, Seminole and St. Lucie) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).


Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Southeast Metro area as scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop along the sea breeze this afternoon and evening. A warm and moist airmass, as well as onshore winds flowing inland towards Southeast Florida, will give way to shower and thunderstorm development. These showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing heavy and torrential downpours at times across Southeast Florida, including the Southeast Metro, which could lead to localized flash flooding concerns across those urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected across Southeast Florida, but locally higher totals upwards of 4-5” cannot be ruled out in isolated locations.

Riverine Flooding: Drier conditions across North Florida have allowed for water levels along several Panhandle and Big Bend rivers to fall below flood stage. Water flowing downstream from the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River basins continues, allowing for water levels to rise. A River Flood Warning are in effect for the Santa Fe River at Three Rivers Estates as minor flooding is forecast. As elevated water levels continue to flow downstream through the Withlacoochee and Suwannee River basins, water levels are forecast to rise into minor flood stage for lower portions of the Suwannee River through ththis week, and additional River Flood Warnings may be needed. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time. For more details, please visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.10 feet, which is within the operational band and 0.04 feet below normal for this time of year.

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