Current Weather OutlookStatewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, August 11, 2022
...Typical Summertime Day for the Panhandle, With Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon...Increased Flood Threat Over the Panhandle....Lower Rain Chances in the Peninsula...A Few Strong Thunderstorms Possible...Heat Indices Rise into 99-107 Degrees Over Northeast Florida and the Peninsula...Elevated Rip Current Risk Continues for Panhandle and East Coast... Invest 97L Poses No Current Threat to Florida...
Updated at 9:28 PM EDT
|No Threat||Low Threat||Medium Threat||High Threat|
|Lightning||Tornado||Damaging Wind||Flash Flooding||Fog||Excessive Heat||Wildfire||Rip Currents|
Northeast Florida & Peninsula
Panhandle & Southeast Coast
Northeast & East-Central Forida
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Ongoing coastal showers and thunderstorms along the Panhandle will set the stage for another summertime day across North Florida. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms look to develop along the Gulf Coast sea breeze, expanding in coverage and intensity through the afternoon hours (70-90% chance of rain). A few thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day may be strong and capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy rainfall rates. Multiple rounds of heavy rain and thunderstorm activity over the same location may yield localized pockets of flooding over the Panhandle today. Shower and thunderstorm activity will largely persist overnight, with additional rounds of heavy downpours expected along and south of the I-10 corridor (40-75% chance of rain).
An unusually dry air mass will settle over the Peninsula today, courtesy of an area of high pressure. The more elevated rain chances will reside over interior locations and West Florida as the East Coast sea breeze propagates inland through the afternoon hours (25-40% chance of rain). Given ample sunshine and hot temperatures, any thunderstorm that develops may be capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours. Showers and thunderstorms will subside through the late evening hours.
Afternoon high temperatures will rise into the 80s to middle 90s statewide, with triple digit heat indices over Northeast Florida and the Peninsula (99-107 degrees). Overnight temperatures will remain in the 70s and 80s.
Central Tropical Atlantic Wave (Invest 97L): Shower activity is limited in associated with a tropical wave located midway between the west coast of Africa and the Lesser Antilles (Invest 97L). Development of this system is not expected due to unfavorable environmental conditions while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low…near 0 percent.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fire Weather: Recent and forecast rainfall continues to keep the wildfire threat low statewide. An unusually dry air mass will settle over the Peninsula and lower rain chances today. Relative humidity values look to reach 45-55% over the interior, but are forecast to remain above critical thresholds.
According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 31 active wildfires in the state, totaling approximately 609 acres.
Drought: Recent rainfall has helped eliminate emerging drought conditions in Northeast Florida on this week’s update Drought Monitor. Lingering pockets of long-term dryness continues across far northeastern Washington County and along the Space and Treasure Coasts. A southward extension of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions is reflected along the I-95 corridor.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 215 (-1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are zero counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger), but portions of East-Central and Southeast Florida remain above 500, especially along the I-95 corridor.
Rip Currents: Onshore southeast winds will produce a moderate to high rip current risk all Panhandle beaches. An elevated rip current risk continues for Northeast and East-Central Florida beaches. A low risk continues along the West and Southeast Coasts. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights will be 1-3’ along all Florida beaches. Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations at any Florida beaches over the past week.
Coastal Flooding: Tides are near normal and coastal flooding is not anticipated.
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk of Flash Flooding (level 1 of 4) across the Panhandle into the Big Bend. Showers and thunderstorms that develop today will be capable of producing heavy rainfall rates and look to train over the same location. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected along the Panhandle, with localized totals of 2-4”. Additional heavy rainfall occurring over already saturated grounds in the Panhandle may lead to areas of flooding, especially over low-lying/poor drainage areas.
Riverine Flooding: Florida rivers, creeks, and lakes remain below flood stage. A couple of Panhandle rivers are forecast to reach Action Stage (bank-full), courtesy of recent and forecast heavy rainfall. For more details on specific river levels, please visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.83 feet, which is within the operational band and 1.07 feet below normal for this time of year. Pulse releases continue down the Caloosahatchee.