Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

 

Saturday, November 16, 2019

...Cloudy, Cool, and Breezy for Northeast Florida & Big Bend...Isolated Showers Possible in Northeast Florida and the Keys...Moderate Flooding Possible Along St. Johns River at Astor...Minor Coastal Flooding Possible Along the East Coast and the Keys...Dangerous Rip Currents Along Peninsula Beaches...

Updated at 8:58 A.M. EDT

An intensifying area of low pressure off the coast of South Carolina will remain nearly stationary today. On the back side of this low pressure system, isolated showers will be possible in far Northeast Florida and near or just offshore of the East Coast today. Gusty winds up to 25 mph will also be possible along the East Coast through today. Otherwise, skies will remain mostly cloudy across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida and parts of Central Florida today with partly to mostly sunny skies elsewhere. A few isolated showers also cannot be ruled out in the Keys today.

The abundant cloud cover will keep temperatures cool in the Big Bend and Northeast Florida with highs in the middle 50s to near 60. Highs in the Panhandle will reach the middle 60s. Central Florida will also be cool today with highs in the upper 60s with lower to middle 70s in South Florida. Overnight lows will primarily be in the 40s in North Florida, 50s in Central and interior South Florida, 60s along coastal South Florida, and 70s in the Keys.

Hydrology: A River Flood Warning is in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor until further notice. The river is hovering near moderate flood stage, but minor flooding is expected to continue well into next week. For more information on specific rivers, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here. Rainfall totals today will be light, and no widespread flooding is expected.

Coastal Flooding: Breezy north to northwest winds today will continue to result in the threat of coastal flooding. A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the tidal St. Johns basin and coastal Northeast Florida today. Tides of 1-2’ above normal in these areas are expected, which could result in some minor flooding. However, a Coastal Flood Watch is in effect beginning Sunday morning for coastal Northeast Florida, where tides up to 2.5’ above normal are possible, which could cause moderate flooding. The strong north to northwest winds could also result in some nuisance to minor flooding in the Keys, where a Coastal Flood Statement is in effect through this afternoon. Tides will be running up to 1’ above normal in the Keys.

Rip Currents: Breezy north to northwest winds and high-period swells from an intensifying low pressure system near the Carolinas will result in a high rip current risk for Atlantic beaches from Nassau to Flagler County and a moderate risk from Volusia to Palm Beach County. Breezy north to northwest winds will also create a high rip current risk along the West Coast from Pinellas to Lee County and a moderate risk for Bay and Gulf Counties in the Panhandle. All other beaches have a low risk today

Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Never swim alone. If caught in a rip current, swim parallel to shore to Break the Grip of the Rip! Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! Double red flags mean the beach is closed. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Red Tide has been observed at moderate to high levels in Sarasota, Charlotte, Lee, and Collier Counties. This may result in some respiratory irritation at area beaches.

Fire Weather: Soil moisture has increased slightly from the recent rainfall, but pockets of dry fuels still exist in North Florida and Southwest Florida. Winds will be around 10-15 mph across the state out of the north or northwest today. High relative humidity and recent showers will help keep the wildfire threat statewide low.

There are currently 2 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 1.1 acres. A County Burn Ban is in effect for Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Sarasota (prohibited year-round), & Liberty County.

Tropics: An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week a few hundred miles northeast of the Leeward Islands. Some development is possible while the system moves northwestward or northward over the open Atlantic before merging with a front later next week. The National Hurricane Center gives this system a 0% (low) chance of formation during the next 48 hours, and a 20% (low) chance during the next 5 days.

For more information regarding the tropics please visit www.hurricanes.gov.

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