Current Weather Outlook

Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology

Thursday, May 6, 2021

...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Storms from the Southern Big Bend Through the Peninsula...Locally Heavy Rain and Flash Flooding Possible...A Couple Isolated Strong to Severe Storms Possible This Afternoon in the Peninsula...Moderate to High Rip Current Risk Along Gulf Coast Beaches...Elevated Wildfire Threat Continues Across South Florida...

Updated at 9:41 AM EDT

Today's Threats:

No Threat Low Threat Medium Threat High Threat
Lightning Tornadoes Damaging Wind Flash Flooding Wildfire Excessive Heat Fog Rip Currents

East Coast

Big Bend, Northeast FL, West Coast


Eastern Peninsula

East Coast

South Florida

Central Florida

Central & South Florida  


West Coast

East Coast


Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:

Panhandle & Big Bend: Showers and a few thunderstorms along a cold front near the Forgotten Coast and northern Gulf of Mexico this morning will gradually shift eastward out of the Big Bend later this morning. Otherwise, dry weather is expected for the afternoon across the Panhandle and Big Bend.  Highs will be slightly cooler behind the front with temperatures near 80. Cooler, drier air moves in tonight with lows generally near 60.

Northeast Florida & Peninsula: The cold front over the northern Gulf of Mexico stretches across Northeast Florida this morning. This front will slowly move southward through the day and into South Florida tonight. Showers and storms this morning in the Gulf will slide into Northeast Florida through the morning and early afternoon. Meanwhile, the Peninsula will remain dry this morning. The abundant sunshine will allow temperatures to quickly rise to near 90. West winds will push the West Coast sea breeze inland while pinning the East Coast sea breeze near the coast. Scattered thunderstorms will likely develop over interior parts of the Peninsula early to mid afternoon, then move eastward toward the East Coast mid afternoon into the early evening. Some of these storms today could become strong to severe with gusty winds of 45-65 mph, frequent lightning, hail, and heavy rainfall. The Storm Prediction Center has outlined the eastern half of the Peninsula and parts of Northeast Florida in a Marginal Risk for severe weather (level 1 of 5) today. Storms that develop today will move offshore and weaken during the mid to late evening with only isolated showers possible in far southern Florida during the overnight.

Highs this afternoon will generally be in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values could be near 100 in spots. Lows will be in the 60s and 70s.


Hydrology: A River Flood Warning is in effect for the Shoal River near Crestview. The Shoal River will crest tonight just above minor flood stage. Several other North Florida rivers remain in action stage (bank-full). For more information, visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here.

Flash Flooding: Widespread flash flooding is not expected today. However, thunderstorms today will be capable of producing heavy downpours, which could result in some flooding of urban areas this afternoon and evening along the East Coast.

Coastal Flooding: There is no threat of coastal flooding today.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.88 feet, which is 0.38 feet above normal for this time of year.


Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds will result in a high risk of rip currents for the Panhandle and a moderate risk for the West Coast. Wave heights will be 2-4’ statewide. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit

Marine Hazards: The Red Tide bloom continues in Southwest Florida. High concentrations have been observed in northern Collier County with low to medium concentrations from Manatee to Collier County. Reports of respiratory irritation and fish kills continue at local beaches and into Charlotte Harbor.


Fire Weather: Humidity will remain above critical levels today statewide (40% at the lowest). Soils and fuels remain wet due to recent rainfall across North Florida. In South Florida, areas of drought continue as recent rainfall has not been as widespread. Winds will also become breezy this afternoon across the state (10-15 mph, gusts near 20). Temperatures will also be quite hot with interior areas reaching the 90s. Thus, South Florida has a moderate wildfire threat today with a low threat in Central Florida. Lightning could ignite new wildfires. Winds near thunderstorms could be gusty and erratic.

There are currently 21 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 13,834 acres. A large 13,032 acre fire is currently burning south of Homestead (85% containment). 14 of the 21 are 100% contained.


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