Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, July 22, 2019
...Scattered Showers And Thunderstorms Near the Coast This Morning, Spreading Inland This Afternoon...Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning, and Heavy Rain Possible in Stronger Storms...Heat Index Values of 98-102 Degrees Expected This Afternoon...Tropical Wave Over Northwest Bahamas Has a 30% (Low) Chance of Development...
Updated 9:35 A.M. EDT
A small tropical wave located over the Northwest Bahamas is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. As the tropical wave drifts to the west and then north around an area of high pressure, some marginal development is possible. The National Hurricane Center gives this tropical wave a 30% (low) chance of development over the next 48 hours. Moderate wind shear, nearby dry air, and the eventual merge with a cold front is expected to minimize any significant organization of this system. Regardless of development, increased rain chances are expected across the Peninsula mid-week as this tropical moisture merges with a cold front that will stall across North-Central Florida. Elsewhere, tropical development is not expected for the next 5 days. For more information regarding the tropics, please visit www.hurricanes.gov.
Isolated thunderstorms near the coasts this morning will increase in coverage and intensity across inland areas this afternoon. Once again, the best chance of thunderstorms will be along and just east of the I-75 corridor. Thunderstorms will gradually diminish after sunset, but lingering isolated showers and thunderstorms will remain possible near the coasts overnight. Like most summer days, a storm or two could be strong to briefly severe, with frequent lightning, gusty winds, and heavy rainfall.
An earlier onset of thunderstorms today will keep temperatures a few degrees cooler than previous days. Highs this afternoon will range from the middle 80s in the western Panhandle to the lower 90s in Central Florida. After combining the heat and humidity, temperatures will feel like 98-102 degrees in the Peninsula and Northeast Florida. Low temperatures tonight will be in the low to mid-70s in North and Central Florida and the upper 70s to lower 80s in South Florida and the Keys.
Due to localized rainfall totals this weekend, the Manatee River at Myakka Head has reached minor flood stage. The river crested overnight and is forecast to fall below flood stage by Tuesday morning. There will not be any impacts to major roadways, infrastructure, or homes. The Ocklawaha River at Rodman Dam remains in action stage. A handful of North Florida rivers are in low water stage. Widespread rainfall totals today are forecast to be around 0.5-1” along the I-75 corridor, and more localized, minor flooding is possible. However, there is no organized flash flood threat. For more information on specific rivers, please visit the Southeast River Forecast Center here.
Light onshore winds (5-10 mph) will continue a moderate rip current risk for eastern Panhandle and Northeast Florida beaches. All other Florida beaches have a low risk today.
Remember, always swim within sight of a lifeguard. Never swim alone. If caught in a rip current, swim parrallel to shore to Break the Grip of the Rip! Double red flags mean the beach is closed. Rip currents can still occur on low risk days! For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Despite the generally high humidity and light winds, ongoing drought conditions and pockets of dry fuels continue a low wildfire threat in North Florida. Wind speed and direction will depend on the local sea breeze and any nearby thunderstorm activity. Lightning may ignite new fires. Downed trees from Hurricane Michael continue to pose a hazardous fuel source.
There are currently 13 active wildfires across the state burning a total of 363.7 acres. All but 3 of these fires are 100% contained. A County Burn Ban is in effect for Duval, Orange, Hillsborough, Pinellas and Sarasota (prohibited year-round).
