Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents can continue to be expected along the Florida Panhandle and East Coast due to persistent breezy onshore winds. West Coast beaches will continue to see a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.  

Marine Hazards: Wave heights near 2-4’ can continue to be expected nearly Statewide today with 1-3’ waves along the West Coast.

Red Tide has been observed at background levels in one sample collected from Northwest Florida (Okaloosa County) over the past week (valid 4/18).    

Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not anticipated today; however, elevated water levels (0.25-1.25’ above normally dry ground) may be possible near and at times of high tide as breezy easterly to southeasterly winds persist.  

Fire Weather: Another day of mostly dry conditions can be expected across the state today as dry air continues to filter westward and high pressure remains in place over the Western Atlantic. Lingering moisture may allow for a few isolated showers and thunderstorms along the Panhandle, Southern Peninsula, and Keys in the afternoon and evening with the sea breezes. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning and erratic, gusty winds. Easterly to southerly winds near 5-15 mph with gusts near 10-20 mph can be expected statewide today. Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions persist along portions of the Peninsula this afternoon and evening as dry air causes relative humidity values to fall near critical thresholds (30-50%) in areas with breezy winds and dry fuels. Mandatory Burn Bans are in effect for 23 counties in the Florida Peninsula (Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia). Areas of patchy to dense fog will be possible along the Florida Panhandle overnight into Friday morning. Localized areas of patchy fog may also be possible along portions of the Peninsula. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. A Special Weather Statement remains in effect for Eastern Marion County as significant reductions in visibility along State Road 40 in the Ocala National Forecast may be possible overnight into the early morning hours over the next several days due to a combination of fog and smoke (known as Super Fog) from a nearby wildfire. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 107 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,482 acres.

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Drought: Little to no rain fell across most of Florida over the past week, allowing dryness and drought to further expand and deteriorate across the state on this week’s Drought Monitor update (valid 5/1). A majority of the Florida Peninsula is now entrenched in Severe Drought or worse, with Extreme Drought conditions identified in parts of the Southern and Northeastern Peninsula, and Abnormally Dry (Emerging Drought) to Moderate Drought conditions now expand across the rest of North Florida. Over the last 60-days, most of the Florida Peninsula received less than half of normal rainfall, with a few areas recording less than one-quarter of normal. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is outlooking below normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across the state over the next week or so which may allow drought conditions to hold steady or improve slightly.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida   Florida is 482 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 Florida counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: Isolated showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the Panhandle, Southern Peninsula, and Keys this afternoon and evening. While there is no organized risk for flash flooding at this time, isolated instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas, primarily along the Panhandle. Widespread rainfall totals are expected to remain well below 1” with locally higher totals near 1-2” possible.  

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.  

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.29 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.34 feet below normal for this time of year.