Current Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Lorenzo: As of 5:00 AM EST, Tropical Storm Lorenzo was located about 1415 miles west-northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands and is moving northward at 13 mph. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast, and Lorenzo is expected to dissipate by Thursday. Lorenzo poses no threat to Florida.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Large ocean swells and persistent northeasterly winds along the Florida East Coast will create a high risk for rip currents. Several Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents. All other beaches can expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Fresh northeasterly onshore winds will keep surf elevated along the Florida East Coast today with wave heights of 3-4’ expected for numerous beaches throughout the day. Some coastal Northeast Florida beaches may see wave heights upwards of 6’. Panhandle and West Coast beaches can anticipate wave heights near 1-2’.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Manatee County in Southwest Florida and St. Johns County along the Florida East Coast. It was also observed at low concentrations in Bay County and background to medium concentrations from Gulf County in Northwest Florida (10/10).

Coastal Flooding: As a dry frontal boundary slides south along the eastern Peninsula, fresh onshore winds will halt the slow downtrend in water levels across the tidal St. Johns today and through the end of the week. Water levels are forecast to reach 1.5-2’ above normally dry ground near and during times of high tide along portions of the tidal St. Johns River and coastal Northeast Florida, and Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect. Elevated tides and persistent onshore winds will continue to lead to instances of minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Statement remains in effect for the Florida Keys where minor saltwater flooding is expected near and during times of high tide due to the upcoming new moon.

Fire Weather: Another dry day is on tap for much of the Sunshine state as northerly winds persist. Relative humidity values across the Panhandle and into the Big Bend will fall near critical thresholds (35-45%) this afternoon, leading to sensitive wildfire conditions due to ongoing and worsening drought conditions. Fresh northeasterly winds are expected along the East Coast today as a dry frontal boundary slides south. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected, with some gusts upwards of 25 mph possible. Across the rest of the state, relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds despite drier conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 24 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 100 acres.  

Drought: Persistent onshore winds have brought daily rainfall chances to the Florida East Coast over the past two weeks. As such, soil conditions remain moist and any lingering drought conditions continue to be removed across Southeast Florida. The moderate drought along coastal Martin and Palm Beach counties has been replaced with abnormally dry conditions due to longer-term drought from earlier this summer. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the ongoing drought across the rest of the Peninsula and North Florida. Monthly rainfall departures remain 2-4” below normal across the entire Panhandle, Suwannee Valley, and Northeast Florida. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains outlooked across northern Jefferson, Leon, Gadsden, Jackson, and Holmes counties with some slight expansion eastward into Suwannee and Columbia counties. A Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) also remains across the rest of the Panhandle and Big Bend region. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions are outlooked along the I-75 corridor and Nature Coast in West-Central Florida where monthly rainfall departures have neared 5” in some locations. Given the mostly dry forecast the next week and drying of vegetation, an introduction to moderate drought is possible in next week’s drought monitor outlook in this region.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 359 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 26 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage due to the recent coastal action from last weekends coastal storm and is expected to remain in moderate flood stage through the next couple of days. Although surf, tides, and onshore winds have relaxed, the long-duration coastal action has significantly backed up the St. Johns River basin as evident from upstream St. Johns River above Lake Harney, St. Johns River near Sanford and St. Johns River near Deland which have also risen into Action Stage (bank-full) and will remain so for the next couple of days as well. There are no other riverine concerns across the state at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.85 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.19 feet below normal for this time of year.