Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, June 16, 2025
...Typical Summertime Pattern Across Sunshine State...Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms; Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible; Isolated to Widely Scattered Still Possible With Lingering Dry Air...Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Across Panhandle;Torrential Downpours Could Lead to Instances of Flash Flooding...Warm and Muggy Conditions...Northeast and West-Central Florida to See Feels-Like Temperatures in Triple Digits (100-106 Degrees)...Instances of Patchy Fog Possible Throughout North Florida Early Tuesday Morning...Lingering Showers and Thunderstorms Near Coastlines Overnight...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Persists for Panhandle and East Coast...No Tropical Cyclone Activity Expected Over Next 7 Days in Atlantic Basin...
Updated at 9:42 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide Space Coast & Southeast FL |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
Panhandle & W. Big Bend Iso. Statewide |
Locally Northeast & West-Central FL Statewide |
Iso. North FL |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A stagnant and persistent weather pattern will continue throughout the state leading to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (50-75% chance of rain). Morning showers and embedded thunderstorms have already developed along the coastal Big Bend and Nature Coast, and they will continue to move onshore and inland throughout the day becoming more scattered in nature. Throughout the Peninsula, the Atlantic and Gulf sea breeze boundaries will collide with one another bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening, with the greatest chance along the western half of the Florida Peninsula. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle where torrential downpours over already saturated grounds could lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water, especially for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
Warm and muggy conditions will continue throughout the state courtesy of the summertime weather pattern. High temperatures will reach the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon, with heat index values reaching the upper 90s to triple digits (100-105-degrees).
As the sea breeze shifts offshore and the sun sets, showers and thunderstorms will begin to dissipate or move offshore towards the coastal waters. A few showers may linger along the coastlines and coastal waters throughout the overnight hours before beginning to drift onshore early in the morning on Tuesday (30-50% chance of rain). Instances of patchy fog may be possible early Tuesday morning as well throughout North Florida.
Low temperatures will remain in the 70s throughout the state and lower 80s for the Keys.
Tropical development is not expected over the next 7 days across the Atlantic basin. For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents persists to the Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches. West Coast beaches will continue to see a low risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along all Florida Gulf Coast beaches today. Longer-period onshore flow will result in 2-3’ waves for the Atlantic Coast.Thunderstorms may create rough surf and choppy waters.
Red Tide has not been observed along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/6).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected throughout the Sunshine State, keeping the wildfire threat very low. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds that could ignite or further spread ongoing fires, especially areas over ongoing severe to extreme drought conditions. Saharan Dry Air will linger in areas along the Space and Treasure Coasts keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated in nature. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 38 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2,279 acres.
Drought: Beneficial rainfall across the Florida Panhandle and Big Bend over the last few days has led to the removal of the lingering Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions for this week’s update. Widespread rainfall throughout the Peninsula was kept to a minimum, even though some areas received plentiful and beneficial rainfall locally. As a result, minimal chances were made to drought conditions throughout the Peninsula despite increased daily rain chances. Portions of South Florida, mostly along the Southwest Florida coastline and interior portions of Southeast Florida, remain within Extreme Drought (level 4 of 5) conditions. Longer-term rainfall deficits continue to show rainfall totals throughout the Peninsula near 1-3” below normal over the last 60 days. Low streamflow also continues for portions of the Everglades and portions of Lake Okeechobee despite recent rainfall.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 289 (-17) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Florida Panhandle as heavy downpours may lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Grounds and soils already remain saturated following several days of recent heavy rainfall, which may lead to an earlier onset of flooding and ponding of water. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.18 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.00 feet below normal for this time of year.
