Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, October 26, 2025
Tecnical Difficulty Updating Tropics and Flooding Sections
...More Unsettled Weather Pattern Returning to Panhandle...Two Rounds of Shower and Thunderstorm Activity - One During Daytime Hours, Second More So Overnight...Embedded Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible With Second Round...Locally Heavy Downpours Could Bring Localized Flash Flooding...Breezy Onshore Winds Continue for Eastern Peninsula...Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Possible...Heat Index Values In Middle to Upper 90s for Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida...Sensitive Wildfire Conditions Remain In Place Across Much of North Florida...High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast; High Surf Advisories for Western Panhandle, Space and Treasure Coasts...Melissa Now a Major Hurricane Southeast of Jamaica - No Direct Threat to Florida...
Updated at 9:36 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Western Panhandle Panhandle & Big Bend (Overnight); Iso. Statewide |
Iso. Western Panhandle & Coastal Eastern Panhandle | Iso. Western Panhandle & Coastal Eastern Panhandle |
Panhandle & Big Bend |
Western Panhandle Eastern Panhandle |
Iso. West-Central & Southwest Florida |
Panhandle and East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Panhandle: A frontal system remains situated to the west over the Ark-La-Tex region and is gradually moving westward into the Southeast U.S. A line of scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the frontal system remains just on the doorsteps of the western Panhandle and this activity will continue to approach the Panhandle throughout the day. There is some computer model guidance uncertainty when it comes to this pre-frontal rain. Some of the computer model guidance has shower and thunderstorm activity nearly dissipating once it reaches the Panhandle, while other computer model guidance keeps the activity intact through the Panhandle before the US-321 corridor (30-65% chance of rain). Behind this first wave of activity, is a second round of showers and thunderstorms associated with a stronger cold front that will move into the Panhandle later this evening and more so overnight, bringing the better chance for rain (50-90% chance of rain). This round of showers and thunderstorms overnight will continue to progress eastward during the overnight hours reaching the Big Bend near sunrise Monday morning, and this second line also seems to be the best chance for some stronger thunderstorm activity. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather along the Panhandle through tonight as embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible. Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (up to 60 mph), an isolated tornado or two, instances of large hail and heavy downpours. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle where locally heavy downpours could bring instances of flash flooding and ponding of water. Cloud cover and elevated rain chances will keep high temperatures in the upper 70s to lower 80s across North Florida this afternoon. Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s overnight.
Peninsula: An upper-level feature off the Florida East Coast will continue to bring breezy conditions across the Peninsula today, especially along the eastern half of the state. Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph will develop throughout the day, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25 mph closer towards the eastern coastline late this afternoon. Breezy onshore winds will help to bring moisture across the Peninsula ahead of a warm front draped across the central regions, increasing the chance for isolated to widely scattered showers and possibly thunderstorms (25-45% chance of rain). Any thunderstorm that develops may be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours at times. As a cold front approaches from the west this evening and overnight, lingering moisture and the upper-level feature off the eastern coastline will allow for additional rounds of scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms to continue mainly along the I-95 corridor (30-55% chance of rain). High temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s this afternoon. Portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida will see heat index values in the middle to upper 90s this afternoon. Low temperatures will remain in the 70s overnight.
Tropical Storm Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 235 miles southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti and moving west-northwestward at 1 mph. A slow drift toward the west to west-northwest is expected this weekend, before a turn towards the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin over the next 24 hours. Melissa is expected to become a hurricane shortly and a major hurricane by Sunday. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be closely monitored. Regardless, increasing dangerous marine conditions along the Florida East Coast are likely late next week.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents is expected for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today as breezy onshore winds and surf increase throughout the day, leading to dangerous beach and boating conditions. A low risk continues for the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: All Atlantic Coast beaches, including the Atlantic-facing Key beaches, can expect elevated surf conditions with wave heights upwards of 5-8’ throughout the day. High Surf Advisories remain in place from the Space Coast through Southeast Florida beaches through this evening and into early Monday morning given dangerous beach and boating conditions along the coast. Instances of localized minor beach and dune erosion cannot be ruled out. Panhandle beaches will see elevated surf near 4-7’ due to a localized ocean swell, also leading to dangerous beach and boating conditions for the far western Panhandle where a High Surf Advisory is in place through late tonight. The rest of the Gulf and West Coasts will see surf near 2-4’ throughout the day.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Sarasota County in Southwest Florida. It was also observed at medium to high concentrations from Gulf County in Northwest Florida. Red tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (10/24).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Winds will gradually become more southerly this afternoon and evening across the Panhandle ahead of an approaching frontal system moving westward. These southerly winds will help to keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds this afternoon, especially as the front approaches and moves into the western Panhandle later in the day. This front will help to bring much needed rainfall across the western Panhandle late today and into tonight. Sensitive wildfire conditions will prevail across the Panhandle, and locally elevated wildfire conditions will continue for the Big Bend due to ongoing drought conditions and dry weather from the last few days. Dry vegetation and grounds will provide fires with fuel for ignition and spreading. Relative humidities will also remain above critical thresholds elsewhere across the state, though breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected along the Florida East Coast, with some gusts upwards of 25 mph across coastal Southeast Florida. A Burn Ban is currently in effect for Calhoun and Sarasota County. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 39 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 180 acres.
Drought: Although rainfall chances have generally been very low the past week, very wet soils from a rather wet early October has kept any drought in check across much of the Florida East Coast. However, a different story is unfolding across the western Peninsula and I-75 corridor where some slight expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) has been added to this week’s drought monitor outlook across interior Hillsborough, Charlotte, Collier, and Monroe counties. The cold frontal passage on Sunday brought some beneficial rainfall to the western Peninsula, however with amounts generally below 1”, there was no significant dent made in the emerging drought. Longer term (60-90 day) rainfall departures remain around 4-6” below normal for much of West-Central Florida and worsening drought conditions are expected as rainfall chances remain low through the next week or so. Further north, there was some slight expansion southward of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) into northern Levy County and southern Dixie county across the Big Bend region. Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of the Panhandle where a lack of rainfall and very low soil moisture prevails. Like the western Peninsula, the cold frontal passage from this past Sunday (10/19) brought a bit of beneficial rainfall, but not nearly enough to make a dent in the drought. In fact, some expansion eastward of the Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) into Madison and Hamilton counties was added on this week’s drought monitor outlook. No significant changes were made elsewhere across the Panhandle with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) conditions persisting for interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley. The next chance of rain for portions of the Panhandle may come on Sunday this weekend with another cold front, though widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated at this time and drought conditions will continue to deteriorate.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 420 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, DeSoto, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Holmes, Hillsborough, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have finally fallen below moderate stage. Water levels will continue to very slowly decline through minor flood stage as water discharges from the basin; however, a return a breezier onshore winds and elevated surf later could lead to a stall in discharge rates. The St. Johns River near Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney all remain within Action Stage (bank-full) due to the cascading back up of water levels from further downstream. Conditions are forecast to remain near stagnant or very slowly decline for the next several days. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time, For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.85 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.22 feet below normal for this time of year.
