Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, September 26, 2025
...Cold Front Continues to Push Eastward Bringing Beneficial Rainfall to the Panhandle and North Florida... Localized Flash Flood Risk for North Florida with any Heavy Downpours... Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms Expected Along Sea Breezes in South and Central Florida... Stronger Thunderstorms Will Bring Frequent Lightning and Gusty Winds...Warm and Muggy Conditions Expected Across the Peninsula; Heat Index Values in Upper 90s to Middle 100s... Cloud Cover Keeps Heat in Check Across Panhandle... Rainfall Lingers into Overnight Across Northeast Florida Along Front... Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for All East Coast and Panhandle Beaches... Hurricane Humberto Rapidly Strengthening Over Western Atlantic - No Threat to Florida... Monitoring Invest 94L (90%) Closely...
Updated at 9:43 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Panhandle and Big Bend Peninsula |
Panhandle & Northeast FL
|
North Florida |
I-75 Corridor and Southwest FL Peninsula |
East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A cold front will continue to slide through the Panhandle and North Florida today bringing with it scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms (60-80% chance of rain). A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked across much of North Florida where ample tropical moisture will pool along this frontal boundary. As such, there is a risk for localized flash flooding and ponding of water in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours. Additionally, heavy rainfall from yesterday and saturated soils may result in an earlier onset to flooding in localized areas. A few thunderstorms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and heavy downpours. Across the Peninsula, the daily sea breeze boundaries will act as the primary focus for shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon. Scattered activity is expected along the I-95 corridor and East Coast (35-50% chance of rain), with only isolated activity anticipated for the I-75 corridor and Southwest Florida (15-35% chance of rain). Although no organized risk for flash flooding is outlooked over much of the Peninsula, a few slow-moving thunderstorms could lead to ponding of water, especially in urban locations.
Another day of warm and muggy conditions can be expected across the Peninsula, with cloud cover limiting the heat across the Panhandle. High temperatures will only reach the lower to middle 80s for much of the Panhandle as the cold front makes its way through, while more abundant sunshine across the Central and Southern Peninsula gives way to high temperatures in the upper 80s to lower 90s. Heat index values will remain muted across the Panhandle today, only reaching the middle to upper 80s. However, feels-like temperatures will climb into the upper 90s to lower 100s for the Peninsula, with some isolated middle 100s (103-105 degrees) over West-Central Florida.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate across the Peninsula this evening, however some nighttime rainfall is expected across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley as the cold front continues to push east (55-75% chance of rain). Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, and middle to upper 70s for Central and South Florida.
Hurricane Humberto: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Humberto is located about 465 miles NE of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving northwestward at 3 mph. A slow west-northwest to northwest motion is expected during the next couple of days. Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph with higher gusts, making Humberto a Category 1 hurricane. Significant strengthening is expected, and Humberto is forecast to become a major hurricane tomorrow. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but conditions continue to be closely monitored.
Southwestern Atlantic (Invest 94L): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a tropical wave located near Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and eastern Cuba. An area of low pressure is expected to form along the wave by tonight when it moves near the southeast Bahamas. This low is expected to become a tropical depression when it is in the vicinity of the central and northwest Bahamas over the weekend and then track northwestward or northward over the southwestern Atlantic. This system poses no direct threat to Florida but continues to be closely monitored. Regardless of development, elevated ocean swells, surf, and rip currents are possible along the Florida East Coast next week.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…80%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…90%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Panhandle and East Coast beaches will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents today. A low risk continues for the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells will continue to diminish today along the East Coast, with swells of 1-2’ expected, with a few waves upwards of 3’ in the surf zone. Southeast Florida beaches, as well as the Gulf Coast and Panhandle, will see wave heights near 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Gulf County and offshore Citrus County in Northwest Florida. It was not observed in any samples collected along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (9/19).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A cold front will continue to move through the Panhandle today bringing scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms and beneficial rainfall. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also expected along the sea breeze boundaries in South and Central Florida. With plentiful rainfall, cloud cover, and relative humidities remaining well above critical thresholds statewide, the overall wildfire threat will remain very low today. However, thunderstorms will be capable of producing erratic winds and frequent lightning, which could spark new fires over dry vegetation across the Panhandle. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 29 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 311 acres.
Drought: Persistent shower and thunderstorm along coastal Miami-Dade, Broward, and Palm Beach counties in the past two weeks has all but eliminated the drought across Southeast Florida. With monthly rainfall departures between 8 to 10 inches above normal, only an abnormally dry outlook remains due to some lingering effects from the drought earlier this summer. A Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) remains outlooked over coastal Martin and St. Lucie counties where the heaviest rainfall as missed in recent weeks. However, across the Panhandle the dry conditions have persisted. A Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) has been outlooked across northern portions of Leon, Gadsden, Liberty, Jackson, and Holmes counties where monthly rainfall departures are 4 to 6 inches below normal. A Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) has also been extended across much of the Suwannee Valley and the remainder of the Panhandle. With an approaching cold front this week, rainfall chances will finally increase again across the Panhandle. However, given the lengthy dry period experienced, it may take a longer rainy period to eliminate the drought developing.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 359 (+10) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 27 Florida counties in the Florida Panhandle (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Columbia, Escambia, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Wakulla, Walton, Washington and Union) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked much of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and Northeast Florida under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding today. A cold front moving through the region will promote scattered to numerous heavy shower and thunderstorm development which may lead to localized flash flooding and ponding of water. Saturated soils from yesterdays heavy rainfall may lead to an earlier onset to flooding in any areas that receive additional heavy rains today. Any slow-moving or stationary thunderstorms across the Peninsula along the sea breezes will also be capable of localized ponding of water, especially in urban locations. Rainfall totals will generally remain between 1-2” across the southern Peninsula in any thunderstorms. However, across the Big Bend and Northeast Florida, more numerous showers and thunderstorms may lead to 1-3” of rain, with upwards of 4” in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy rainfall.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain in minor flood stage. However, river levels have been allowed to discharge without any strong onshore winds, and a return to Action Stage (bank-full) is forecast this weekend. The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale is at Action Stage (bank-full) and is expected to remain so through the weekend. There are no other riverine concerns expected statewide, however localized heavy rainfall could lead to localized riverine responses. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.42 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.33 feet below normal for this time of year.
