Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, May 14, 2026
... Mostly Sunny and Dry Conditions Return Statewide as High Pressure Settles Overhead... An Isolated Shower Possible Across Southeast Florida... Highs in the 80s and 90s... Feels-like Temperatures Reach the Middle to Upper 90s in South Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Statewide Beaches...
Updated at 7:56 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Statewide |
Locally South FL |
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Space & Treasure Coast Gulf County Southwest FL & Panhandle Southeast FL & Nature Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy dense fog have developed throughout Northeast Florida this morning and will slowly dissipate as the sun continues to rise. Otherwise, high pressure will begin to settle back over the state today in the wake of our frontal disturbance from earlier this week. Chances of rain will return to near zero, outside of coastal Southeast Florida that may see an isolated sea breeze shower or thunderstorm this afternoon (20-30% chance of rain).
Relative humidities will return to near critical thresholds across the I-10 corridor this afternoon which, paired with a few breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph, may encourage sensitive wildfire conditions. However, recent rainfall will keep the overall wildfire threat low today. KBDI values remain above the 500 critical drying threshold across the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida which will also keep sensitive conditions in place there.
High temperatures will reach the 80s throughout much of the state today. A few lower 90s cannot be ruled out in South Florida with feels-like temperatures approaching the middle 90s. Clear and dry conditions will prevail overnight. Lows will dip into the middle to upper 50s in North Florida, with upper 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida. The Southeast Metro and Keys will remain in the upper 70s to lower 80s.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and elevated surf will keep a high risk for rip currents outlooked along Space and Treasure Coast beaches today, with a moderate risk across Northeast, Southwest, and Panhandle beaches. A low risk is expected for Nature Coast and Northwest Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Seas will remain elevated today along the East Coast, with waves reaching 2-4’. Waves will also increase along the West Coast today, especially along the Sun Coast, with surf near 2-3’. Panhandle beaches will see surf of 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia, Santa Rosa, Bay, and Sarasota counties. It was not observed elsewhere across the state (valid 5/8/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Wildfire danger is expected to be low today given recent rainfall helping to saturate much of the soils, grounds, and vegetation. However, relative humidities will return to near critical thresholds along the I-10 corridor this afternoon which, paired with a few breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph, may encourage locally sensitive wildfire conditions. However, these sensitive conditions will be localized to areas that saw the least amount of rainfall in the recent week. KBDI values remain well above 500 (critical drying) along the Nature Coast and West-Central Florida which will also encourage the locally sensitive wildfire danger despite RH expected to stay above critical thresholds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 45 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 17,709 acres.
Drought (5/12/26): Some categorical improvements were made on this week’s Drought Monitor update across the Panhandle where plentiful rainfall fell. Rainfall totals measured 4 to 6 inches across the northern Panhandle, with localized amounts upwards of 6 to 8 inches or more. As a result, the extreme drought across northern Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa counties has been downgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4). The exceptional drought across much of Jackson County has also been reduced to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) due to this heavy rainfall. Despite rainfall adding up to 1 to 2 inches across the Big Bend and Suwannee River Valley, the severity of the ongoing drought resulted in no changes to the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4). Throughout the Peninsula, rainfall was mostly confined to the I-95 corridor and interior South Florida, with amounts generally between 1-2 inches. This was not enough for any improvements in the drought throughout the Peninsula, with areas of Southeast Florida actually seeing expanding moderate (level 1 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The larger drought picture was otherwise untouched. As a reminder, the cutoff for rainfall on this week’s update was Tuesday (5/12) at 8 AM EDT, thus the heavy rainfall that fell on Tuesday and Wednesday of this week will be taken into account on next week’s update. This rainfall will likely help with drought conditions across the state, though significant improvements are not expected given just how long this drought has been in place and how severe the long-term rainfall deficits are. 99% of Florida remains in at least a moderate drought, with 24% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 433 (-58) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.43 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.89 feet below normal for this time of year.
