Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, August 6, 2025
...Rinse and Repeat Weather Pattern With Stalled Frontal Boundary and Daily Showers and Thunderstorms...Multiple Rounds of Heavy Downpours Increasing Risk for Localized Flash Flooding...Triple Digit Heat Index Values; Heat Advisory for South Florida Due to Dangerous Heat and Humidity...Scattered Showers and Storms Likely Linger Overnight Across Panhandle and Peninsula...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along East Coast Beaches; Moderate Risk Returns for Panhandle...Tropical Storm Dexter Moving Away From Land Over North Atlantic...Tropical Wave Moving Over Eastern Tropical Atlantic Could See Gradual Development Over Central Tropical Atlantic Later This Week (60%)...Weak Disturbance Off Southeast U.S. Coast to Develop Surface Low In Next Few Days (40%)...
Updated at 11:58 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Panhandle & Southwest Florida Statwide |
Iso. Statewide
|
Locally Panhandle & Northeast FL Panhandle; Iso. Statewide |
South Florida Statewide
|
Palm Beach County Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A rinse and repeat pattern can be expected throughout North Florida as the weak frontal boundary remains stalled over southern Georgia and northern Florida. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms moving onshore across the Panhandle and portions of the Big Bend this morning will continue to move inland before becoming more widespread in nature with the help of daytime heating processes (60-80% chance of rain). Multiple rounds of heavy rainfall are anticipated, and any of these heavier downpours that occur over areas that have already seen heavy rainfall could see an earlier onset to possible flash flooding. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is also outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across I-10 corridor for the increased risk for localized flash flooding and ponding of water. A typical summertime thunderstorm pattern returns across the Peninsula with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing along the sea breeze throughout the afternoon and evening (45-75% chance of rain). Embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out this afternoon bringing frequent lightning, gusty winds and torrential downpours.
Cloud cover and elevated rain chances will keep Panhandle temperatures slightly “cooler” than the rest of the state with high temperatures reaching the upper 80s and heat index values reaching the middle to upper 90s. Hot and humid conditions across the state will reach the 90s this afternoon and heat index values reaching triple digits (100-110-degrees). Heat Advisories will go into effect late morning across South Florida for dangerous heat and humidity leading to heat index values upwards of 110-degrees.
Through the late evening hours and heading into the overnight period will dissipate and move offshore. By the predawn hours on Thursday, showers and thunderstorms will begin to move back onshore along the Panhandle and portions of the Big Bend, as well as portions of Southeast Florida (30-40% chance of rain). Low temperatures will remain in the 70s and lower 80s, with the Keys seeing low temperatures in the middle 80s.
Tropical Storm Dexter: As of 5:00 AM EDT, Dexter is located about 405 miles south-southeast of Halifax, Nova Scotia and moving east-northeastward at 13 mph. This motion is expected to continue with some increase in forward speed over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 45 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours while the system becomes extratropical cyclone. Dexter poses no direct threat to Florida.
Off the Southeast U.S. : A weak area of low pressure has from a surface disturbance several hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern U.S. However, this system is currently producing only limited shower and thunderstorm activity and development is likely to be slow to occur during the next few days. Thereafter, environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for development. A tropical depression could still form by this weekend as the low initially drifts westward before turning northward to northeastward by the weekend. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, it could bring elevated rain chances and rip currents along portions of the East Coast later in the week and into the weekend.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the eastern tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days. A tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 20%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast. A moderate rip current risk continues for numerous Panhandle beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights will return to 2-3’ along East Coast beaches while West Coast beaches will see wave heights of 1’.
Red Tide was observed in two samples from Florida’s Gulf Coast (Lee and Gulf County) over the past week (valid 7/25).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected across North Florida today keeping the overall wildfire threat very low. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the interior Peninsula can be expected along the sea breeze. Plenty of moisture across the state will keep relative humidity values well above critical thresholds. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 29 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,169 acres.
Drought: No changes were made during this week’s drought monitor outlook as much of the regions under drought remain below average in rainfall and haven’t received significant rainfall in the past week. A Severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across Southeast Florida where monthly rainfall deficits remain 2-4” for many locations and an Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists over western Miami-Dade County. Portions of the Nature Coast remain in Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where monthly rainfall totals are likewise at a 2-4” deficit. Portions of the northern Panhandle are under an abnormally dry (emerging drought) category where hit-or-miss thunderstorms have benefited some locations, but not all. Rainfall chances will generally increase across the state this weekend and into next week as a front stalls across North Florida which may alleviate some drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 323 (-16) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially some that are slow-moving, leading to an increased risk for localized flooding concerns. Abundant moisture will help to fuel these showers and thunderstorms along the front, helping to increase coverage and extent. Training showers and thunderstorms along the Panhandle coast could lead to an earlier onset to any possible flooding with repeated rounds of heavy downpours over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the I-10 corridor through today. The Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) just to the north of Northeast Florida be extended into the state cannot be ruled out. Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible, especially closer towards the coast.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Marks River near Newport and Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy have risen into Action Stage (bank-full) following recent heavy rainfall over the last few days persistently bringing locally higher rainfall totals across the western Big Bend. Rivers across the Panhandle are in good condition right now; however, any locally heavy downpours over the river basin could lead to a quick-response rise. Any heavy rainfall that occurs in southern Georgia in the river headwaters will then flow southward through the basin into Florida. Fisheating Creek at Palmdale remains within Action Stage as well, but is forecast to hover below flood stage and Action Stage over the next day or so. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.09 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.67 feet below normal for this time of year.
