Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, May 29, 2025
...Elevated Rain Chances Expected Nearly Statewide...Thunderstorms May Be Strong to Locally Severe Across North and Central Florida...Increasing Concerns for Flooding and Ponding Water Reside Along Florida Panhandle as Thunderstorms Produce Very Heavy Rainfall Rates...Conditions for Severe Weather More Conducive Over Northeast Florida This Afternoon...Typical Summertime Pattern Anticipated for the Florida Peninsula...Triple Digit Heat Indices Expected for West Florida and Interior Florida Peninsula...Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents for Florida Panhandle Beaches, Elevated Risk Continues Along Atlantic Coast...
Updated at 9:45 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Iso. Florida Panhandle |
Locally Northeast Florida Statewide |
Locally Florida Panhandle |
Interior Florida Peninsula & West Florida Florida Peninsula |
Iso. Interior North Florida
|
Locally Florida Panhandle Florida Panhandle & East Coast Elsewhere |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms along the Florida Panhandle this morning will continue to gradually advance eastward through the day (70-90% chance of rain). Strong to locally severe thunderstorms will be possible along the I-10 corridor today as the Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather; thunderstorms will pose the risk of gusty winds (45-60 mph), frequent lightning, instances of hail, and flooding rainfall rates. Instances of flash flooding and ponding water can be expected for several Florida Panhandle communities as this thunderstorm activity looks to train, or move over the same areas for an extended period; usual trouble spots and low-lying/poor drainage areas may see an earlier onset to flooding given the multi-round nature of this activity. Radar and computer model trends this morning also suggest an isolated waterspout or tornado cannot be ruled out along the Florida Panhandle through the daytime heating hours. The more conducive environment for strong to severe thunderstorm activity looks to reside well east of the I-75/I-10 interchange where sunshine and warm temperatures will take place prior to the arrival of thunderstorms and the daily sea breeze; there is a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather outlooked for northeastern Baker, northern Duval, and Nassau Counties.
A typical summertime pattern can be expected across the remainder of the Sunshine State, with the greatest rain chances residing along the spine of the Florida Peninsula (60-70% chance of rain). Elevated rain chances will migrate to the Space and Treasure Coasts this afternoon and evening. Any thunderstorm will be capable of producing gusty winds (45-60 mph), frequent lightning, small hail, and heavy downpours. Rain chances will linger along the eastern Florida Peninsula well after sunset (35-55% chance of rain).
Even with widespread shower and thunderstorm coverage, temperatures will warm into the upper 80s to middle 90s statewide. Triple digit heat indices (98 to 105-degrees) can be expected for portions of the interior Florida Peninsula and West Florida this afternoon. Temperatures remain mild tonight in the 70s and 80s statewide. A few interior North Florida locations may see patchy fog and low clouds form tonight into Friday morning; however, widespread fog development is not anticipated.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Southerly winds will lead to a moderate to high risk of rip currents along most Florida Panhandle beaches today, with a moderate risk of rip currents residing along the Florida East Coast. Low risk conditions persist along Florida West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along all Florida beaches today.
Red Tide has been observed at background levels in samples collected from the Florida Gulf Coast over the past week (valid 5/23). This includes the following counties: Sarasota, Monroe, and Pasco.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Relative humidity values will continue to remain above critical thresholds statewide. Widespread elevated rain chances can be expected nearly statewide (60-90% chance of rain). Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. The wildfire threat remains low today; however, lightning may ignite new wildfires over Florida Peninsula locations that have endured long-term drought/dry soils and vegetation. Mandatory Burn Bans are in effect for 13 counties in the Florida Peninsula (Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Glades, Hendry, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota). Areas of patchy fog and low clouds cannot be ruled out across interior portions of North Florida tonight. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 125 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,345 acres.
Drought: The Sunshine State’s rainy season appears to be underway as thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall brought drought relief to East-Central Florida. However, the welcomed rainfall occurred east of the western Florida Peninsula and resulted in a 1-category degradation on the recent Drought Monitor (5/29). Severe drought (level 2 of 4) continues across portions of the St. Johns and Santa Fe River basins as well as the western and southern Florida Peninsula, extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues to affect Southwest Florida and the Everglades where water levels are very low. Above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall can be expected across Florida over the next 6-10 days as the typical summertime pattern returns.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 384 (-11) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 7 Florida counties (Charlotte, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Monroe, Pinellas, and Sarasota) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Flash Flooding across the Florida Panhandle as numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms will be capable of producing very heavy rainfall rates. This activity looks to train, or slowly move over the same areas for extended periods of time, leading to localized rainfall totals in excess of 4-7” for some Florida Panhandle communities. Runoff issues can be expected for usual trouble spots and poor drainage/low-lying areas; instances of flash flooding and ponding water will be possible. Elsewhere across Florida, summertime shower and thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing a quick 2-4” this afternoon.
Riverine Flooding: There are no river flooding concerns across Florida. We may see rises along the quick-response rivers, creeks, and streams along the Florida Panhandle; however, riverine flooding is not anticipated. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 10.97 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.17 feet below normal for this time of year.
