Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, September 22, 2025
Technical Difficulties Updating Tropics, Marine and Flooding Sections
...Drier Air Lingering Across North and Central Florida Keeping Rain Chances Isolated...Abundant Moisture Over South Florida to Create Scattered to Numerous Showers and Thunderstorms this Afternoon and Evening...Breezy Winds Lingering Along Northeast Coast...Warm and Muggy Conditions Across the State; Heat Index Values In Lower Triple Digits for Portions of South Florida...Mostly Dry Conditions Overnight; Lingering Showers Along Atlantic Coast...Isolated Patchy Fog Possible Early Tuesday Morning Over Suwanee Valley...High Rip Current Risk Lingers Along Atlantic Coast; Moderate Risk Along Panhandle...Nuisance Tidal and Coastal Flooding for Upper Keys...Gabrielle Now A Major Hurricane - No Threat; Tropical Wave Over Central Atlantic Now Has High Chance (70%)- No Threat to Florida; Second Wave Near Leeward Islands Has Medium Chance (40%) - No Threat to Florida at this Time...
Updated at 9:45 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally South Florida & Keys Northeast FL & Peninsula |
Iso. South FL
|
Iso. Panhandle & Big Bend |
Iso. South Florida |
Locally South Florida & Keys Statewide |
Upper Keys |
East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
As the first official day of Fall kicks off, summer-like conditions will persist. Moisture will gradually return from south to north bringing increasing rain chances across the state. Abundant moisture across South-Central and South Florida will give way to scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms developing throughout the afternoon and evening (55-70% chance of rain). Moisture creeping northward into the rest of the state will give way to a more isolated chance for showers and embedded thunderstorms along the sea breeze (15-25% chance of rain). Drier air lingering across the Panhandle and Big Bend will likely keep shower and thunderstorm activity very limited; however it cannot be ruled out. Any thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours, especially during the peak heating hours of the afternoon and evening. Lingering breezy northeasterly winds will continue along the Northeast Florida coast through the afternoon, and wind gusts upwards of 15-20 mph will be possible.
Warm and muggy conditions will return throughout the state as high temperatures reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Heat index values will also return into the middle to upper 90s across the state, with portions of South Florida and the Keys reaching the lower 100s.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will dissipate heading into the evening and overnight hours as they drift offshore along the coastal waters. Onshore winds along the Atlantic Coast may keep embedded shower activity adjacent to the coast or along the immediate coastline overnight before drifting onshore early Tuesday morning (20-40% chance of rain). Elsewhere across the state mostly dry conditions can be expected. Instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Tuesday morning near sunrise along the Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida, especially if any rainfall does occur earlier in the day.
Low temperatures will remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s across North Florida, middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida.
Major Hurricane Gabrielle: As of 9:00 AM EDT, Gabrielle has strengthened into a major hurricane with maximum sustained winds near 120 mph making the system a category 3 hurricane. Gabrielle is located about 195 mph southeast of Bermuda and is moving northward at 10 mph. This general motion is expected today, followed by a faster northeastward or east-northeastward motion on Tuesday. Gabrielle could intensify even more today, though some weakening should begin by Wednesday. Gabrielle poses no direct threat to Florida.
Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower and thunderstorm activity associated with a tropical wave located about midway between the Lesser Antilles and the Cabo Verde Islands has increase since yesterday. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for development by tomorrow, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle to latter part of this week while the system moves west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…20%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15-20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward. A tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be closely monitored.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for all East Coast beaches and several Panhandle beaches. There is a high risk for rip currents along the First Coast and Palm Beach County. A low risk for rip currents can be expected for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells will remain elevated along the Florida East Coast as a low-pressure system develops off the coast. This will create elevated surf of 3-4’ for the Florida East Coast throughout the day, with some waves upwards of 5’ in the surf zone. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will see wave heights of around 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Gulf County and offshore Citrus County in Northwest Florida. It was not observed in any samples collected along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (9/19).
Coastal Flooding: Elevated high tides from the new moon and increased surf will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for the Upper Florida Keys near and during times of high tide, and Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect. Localized nuisance coastal flooding is also possible along portions of coastal Miami-Dade and Broward County as well. Growing ocean swells and onshore winds will trap elevated tides within tidal portions of the St. Johns River, leading to instances of nuisance coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide.
Fire Weather: Moisture gradually returning across the state will give way to shower and thunderstorm chances returning across the state. Drier air lingering across the Panhandle and Big Bend will lead to a more isolated chance, while greater moisture over South Florida will give way to more scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Relative humidity values should remain above critical thresholds this afternoon across the Panhandle and Big Bend, but given the lack of rainfall for the month of September sensitive wildfire conditions will be possible. Breezy northeasterly wind gusts of 15-20 mph will be possible along portions of the Northeast Florida coast through today. Instances of patchy fog may be possible early Tuesday morning along portions of the Suwannee Valley. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 41 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 385 acres.
Drought: The rather persistent wet and active weather pattern across the southern Peninsula has significantly reduced drought conditions across coastal Southeast Florida. The severe drought that was found along coastal Broward and Palm Beach counties has been reduced to a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where rainfall in the past two weeks has been 4-6” above normal. Similarly, all categorical drought was removed across Miami-Dade County with ample rainfall and saturated vegetation and soils. Further north along coastal Martin and St. Lucie counties, a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) remains in place where the heaviest rainfall has missed in recent weeks. The biggest change in this week’s drought monitor outlook is across the northern Panhandle. Widespread abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions were added across the Panhandle and into Northeast Florida where many locations have seen zero rainfall the entire month of September. Rainfall departures across the northern Panhandle counties are the most severe, with 30-day deficits of 3-5” in most locations. As such, a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) has been outlooked across this region. Additional categorical enhancements are likely in the coming week as rainfall remains sparce across the Panhandle.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 342 (+14) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 22 Florida counties in the Florida Panhandle (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, Escambia, Gadsden, Gulf, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafayette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Taylor, Walton, Washington, and Union) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Isolated showers and thunderstorms this afternoon across Southeast Florida may produce locally heavy rainfall, and localized flash flooding is possible if any areas receive prolonged thunderstorms. Rainfall totals upwards of 1” are possible in any areas that receive rainfall.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain in minor flood stage. Onshore winds will begin to increase again this weekend keeping water levels elevated within the St. Johns River basin. The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale is at Action Stage (bank-full) and is expected to remain so through the weekend. There are no other riverine concerns expected statewide, however localized heavy rainfall with any isolated showers or thunderstorms could lead to localized riverine responses. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.12 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.51 feet below normal for this time of year.
