Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, February 14, 2026
...A Sunny and Dry Day Expected as High Pressure Dominates... A Light Sprinkle Possible this Afternoon Along the Treasure Coast... Elevated WIldfire Conditions Persist Statewide... Fog Development Possible Along the coastal Big Bend and Nature Coast after Midnight... Scattered Showers Expected Across the Panhandle Late Tonight Ahead of an Approaching Frontal System... Breezy Pre-Frontal Winds to Increase Towards Daybreak for the Panhandle... Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle and East Coast Beaches... High Surf Advisory in Effect for Western Panhandle Late Tonight as Marine Conditions Worsen...
Updated at 8:03 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Coastal Flooding |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Panhandle (Overnight) |
Locally Statewide
|
Locally Coastal Big Bend Nature Coast & West-Central FL |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will remain centered over the Southeast U.S. today ahead of an approaching upper-level disturbance still a distance away over the lower Mississippi River Valley. This high pressure will bring another sunny, dry, and pleasant day to the state. A localized chance of a light sprinkle exists along the immediate Treasure Coast this afternoon with some coastal shower activity, though any activity will be very brief in nature (15-20% chance of rain). Pockets of near critically low relative humidities are expected this afternoon across North Florida and the spine of the Peninsula which, paired with ongoing drought, will continue to promote elevated wildfire conditions.
High temperatures will climb into the middle to upper 70s across North Florida this afternoon and upper 70s to lower 80s throughout Central and South Florida. Coastal and beach locations of North Florida will remain cooler with onshore flow where highs in the middle to upper 60s are expected.
Mostly dry conditions will continue to prevail tonight for much of the state as the potent upper-level disturbance to the west approaches. Southerly flow ahead of this disturbance will usher in moist, cool air from the Gulf onshore across the Big Bend, Nature Coast, and portions of West-Central Florida which may lead to fog and low clouds to develop after midnight. Some of this fog could be locally dense and Dense Fog Advisories may be issued if conditions warrant. Closer to the actual frontal disturbance, scattered showers will begin to develop well ahead of the front across the western Panhandle after midnight (60-80% chance of rain), spreading across the eastern Panhandle and western Big Bend before sunrise (25-50% chance of rain). Overall coverage of these showers and locally embedded thunderstorms will increase towards daybreak as a more organized line of activity enters the Panhandle around sunrise. Breezy southerly winds will begin to develop ahead of the front, with wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph expected across the western Panhandle by early Sunday morning. Low temperatures tonight will remain in the 50s for most, with middle 60s to lower 70s along coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys.
Rip Currents: Lighter onshore winds and relatively calm seas will continue to bring a moderate risk for rip currents to all Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. A low risk is expected for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calm marine conditions are expected statewide with waves near 1-2’ for all beaches. A few waves upwards of 3’ are possible along East Coast beaches this afternoon. Tonight, waves will begin to increase along Panhandle beaches ahead of our next frontal system. Surf of 4-6’ is expected by daybreak Sunday and a High Surf Advisory will go into effect at 3 AM CST tonight for Escambia, Okaloosa, and Santa Rosa County beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Bay County and background to very low concentrations in Gulf County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at background to very low concentrations from Palm Beach County. It was not observed in Southwest Florida over the past week (valid 2/6/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Another mostly sunny and dry day is expected across the state as dry air filters throughout much of North Florida and the spine of the Peninsula. Pockets of near critically low relative humidities are expected (35-40%), especially across interior Northeast Florida. Winds are expected to be generally light today, though a few gusts upwards of 15-20 mph are possible, especially along the I-95 corridor and East Florida. Elevated wildfire conditions will persist given the ongoing severe to extreme drought across much of the state. Locally greater wildfire risk cannot be ruled out. Relative humidities will quickly recover overnight, though another round of patchy dense fog is possible along coastal Big Bend and the Nature Coast after midnight. Foggy conditions combined with wildfire smoke will lead to reduced visibilities. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 103 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 15,167 acres.
Drought (2/12/26): It has become a recent theme in the weather pattern for a frontal passage to sweep through portions of the state every week or so with light to moderate rainfall. However, rainfall totals with these frontal passages have been short of alleviating with very little relief to the ongoing drought. The most recent frontal passage, about a week ago on 2/5, continued this theme with light rain across the state but totals mainly below 0.5”. With little rainfall from this system and mostly warm, dry, and even breezy conditions at times in its wake since then, drought has worsened for much of the state as reflected in the latest Drought Monitor outlook. Across North Florida, the “wettest” location in recent weeks has been the far western Panhandle where a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains in place. However, across the remainder of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and Northeast Florida, severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) is still outlooked where 60-day rainfall departures are between 4-7”. Streamflows in these areas continue to decline and run well below normal. In this week’s most recent outlook, the biggest change was further expansion of the extreme drought eastward across the remainder of Northeast Florida to the coastline. Some slight expansion westward into Jackson County was also added as well. Throughout Central Florida and along the I-4 corridor, the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions have been mostly upgraded to a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) in the most recent outlook. Locally heavier rainfall has fallen along the I-4 corridor since late Autumn, though dry conditions in recent weeks have begun to bring further drought deterioration. Worsening of drought was also noted in portions of South Florida with only the coastal areas of Southeast Florida remaining in a moderate drought. Elsewhere, a severe to extreme drought is in place, with the newest pockets of extreme drought across interior Martin and St. Lucie counties, interior Monroe and Miami-Dade counties, and Collier/Hendry counties. 60-day rainfall departures throughout South Florida have grown to 2-4” for most locations, with pockets of 5” departures in localized areas. Recent KBDI also indicates short-term “flash drought” has worsened across all South Florida with widespread county-averaged values of greater than 600. A recent uptick in wildfire activity has been observed because of the worsening drought and dry conditions. Over the next week, a strong cold front is forecast to pass through the state Sunday and early Monday (2/15-2/16) with scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms. Some of this activity could bring a few locally heavy downpours, and rainfall totals are forecast to reach 1-2” for much of the Panhandle and Big Bend. However, this activity will likely begin to weaken as it treks south and east across the Peninsula with rainfall totals below 1” across Central Florida and below 0.5” in South Florida. Although there could be some beneficial rains to North Florida with this front, rainfall totals will not be nearly enough to put much of a dent in the drought. Similarly across Central and South Florida, though even lower rainfall totals will encourage worsening drought which will likely be reflected in next week’s Drought Monitor. As of this outlook, nearly 99% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 499 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 35 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today or tonight. Scattered showers streaming from south to north are expected to develop after midnight across the Panhandle ahead of an approaching cold front traversing along the Gulf Coast. Rainfall totals will remain mainly below 0.5” before daybreak Sunday, though locally higher amounts upwards of 1” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.59 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.99 feet below normal for this time of year.
