Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, April 28, 2025
...Dense Fog Along Panhandle to Dissipate By Mid-Morning...Increased Shower and Thunderstorm Activity Across North and Central Florida With Sea Breeze...Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible During Afternoon and Evening...Ponding of Water Possible with Heavier Rainfall...Slim Chance for Shower Activity or Rumbles of Thunder Across South Florida...Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Conditions Persist Across Big Bend and Interior Peninsula...Temperatures in 80s and 90s...Shower and Thunderstorm Activity to Linger Through Evening...Another Round of Activity Possible Early Tuesday Morning Along Space Coast...Instances of Fog Possible Overnight and Into Tuesday Morning Across North Florida...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and East Coast Beaches Continues...
Updated at 10:13 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Suwannee Valley and I-75 Corridor North & Central FL |
Iso. Big Bend & I-75 Corridor |
Interior Peninsula Big Bend Iso. Statewide |
Panhandle Big Bend & Northeast FL Iso. Central Florida |
East Coast Panhandle & Southeast FL West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Dense Fog Advisories will remain in effect through the mid-morning hours across the Panhandle due to reduced visibility as low as ¼ of a mile or less at times. Foggy conditions and low clouds will continue to gradually lift and dissipate through the morning hours.
A noticeable increase in shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected across North and Central Florida today compared to the last few weeks. A weak frontal boundary has dipped into Northeast Florida, which will help continue to bring moisture northward. As moisture continues to be pulled northward, and the sea breeze develops and moves inland throughout the day, scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop during the peak heating hours of the day across the Big Bend and into Central Florida. The greatest chance for activity looks be along the Suwannee River Valley and along the I-75 corridor (35-70% chance of rain). While there is no organized risk for severe weather, locally strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible during the peak heating hours of the day. Any strong to severe thunderstorm that develops will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), small hail and locally heavy rainfall. Instances of ponding of water over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas cannot be ruled out with any locally heavier rainfall or slow-moving thunderstorms. Drier conditions will mostly persist throughout South Florida; however, there is a chance for an isolated shower or two or even a rumble of thunder late in the day (10-15% chance of rain). Despite increased rain chances across the Big Bend and Peninsula, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions can still be expected with relative humidity values falling near critical thresholds and the potential for lightning over dry vegetation and fuels this afternoon.
High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s along the coastlines and upper 80s to middle 90s across inland areas.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will generally continue into the evening hours and as the sunsets before dissipating or moving offshore. As the lingering frontal boundary shifts farther south overnight, another round of showers and possibly embedded thunderstorms will develop along the Space Coast by early Tuesday morning (15-30% chance of rain). Instances of fog will be possible across North Florida and into Central Florida, especially for any areas that received rainfall.
Low temperatures will fall into the 60s to middle 70s overnight.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds will give way to a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the East Coast beaches. Panhandle beaches have returned to a moderate risk for rip currents. A low risk can be expected along the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Onshore winds along the Florida East Coast will create ocean swells upwards of 2-4’ throughout the afternoon through Atlantic-facing Key beaches. Panhandle and Gulf Coast beaches can expect wave heights near 1’.
Red Tide has been observed at background levels in one sample collected from Northwest Florida (Okaloosa County) over the past week (valid 4/18).
Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today.
Fire Weather: Increased shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected this afternoon and evening throughout North and Central Florida, with the greatest chance over the Suwannee Valley and along the I-75 corridor, as moisture has gradually increased. Organized severe weather is not expected, but locally strong to severe thunderstorms cannot be ruled out in the peak heating hours. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Despite the increase in moisture and rain chances, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions can still be expected throughout the Big Bend and the interior Peninsula as relative humidity values will fall near critical thresholds and lightning may develop over dry fuels and vegetation. Winds will generally remain light near 5-10 mph, with wind gusts remaining below 15 mph. The sea breeze along the East Coast may create locally gusty winds upwards of 20 mph this afternoon outside of thunderstorms. Mandatory Burn Bans are in effect for 21 counties in the Florida Peninsula (Brevard, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Okeechobee, Orange, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia). Instances of fog may be possible throughout the Panhandle overnight and into Tuesday, especially for any areas that received rainfall earlier in the day. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 93 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,301 acres.
Drought: Little rainfall was observed across the Sunshine State over the past week (as of 4/24), prompting areas of abnormal dryness (emerging drought) and drought expansion on this week’s Drought Monitor update. Abnormal Dryness has been expanded to cover nearly all of North Florida. Expanded areas of Severe to Extreme Drought were established over the Peninsula and now cover larger areas along and north of the I-4 corridor and across nearly all of South Florida. Moderate to Severe Drought conditions are in place across West-Central Florida with Abnormally Dry to Moderate Drought conditions across East-Central Florida. As of April 23, 89 separate fires across Florida had scorched more than 3,400 acres (5 square miles). Several areas on the Florida Peninsula received only 25-50% of normal precipitation during the past 60-days. 90-day rainfall deficits are now near 3-5” below normal with higher pockets of 5-8” rainfall deficits north of the I-10 corridor, across portions of Southeast Florida, and in portions of the Panhandle. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is outlooking above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall across much of the state over the next week or so.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 469 (+9) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties (Brevard, Broward, Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Marion, Martin, Miami-Dade, Monroe, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Palm Beach, Pasco, Pinellas, Polk, Sarasota, Seminole, Sumter, and Volusia) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing this afternoon and evening will be capable of producing locally heavy downpours, especially any slow-moving activity over low-lying and urban areas. Widespread rainfall totals across North and Central Florida will remain near 1”, but locally higher totals upwards of 1-3” cannot be ruled out. Ongoing drought and warm conditions should precede flash flood concerns.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine flooding concerns at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.44 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.25 feet below normal for this time of year.
