RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, March 12, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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A line ofstrong to severe thunderstormsis ongoing this morning across portions of the eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley with a few of these storms capable of producing damaging winds (50-60 mph), a brief tornado or two, and locally heavy downpours.
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weatheris outlooked across the Big Bend and portions of Northeast Florida as this line of activity makes its way eastward through the morning hours (85 – near 100% chance of rain) with gradual weakening.
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The line will begin to approach Central Florida later this afternoon and evening with widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (45-75% chance of rain).
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In the wake of the front, breezy post-frontal conditions will develop with wind gustsupwards of 30 mphspreading throughout all North and Central Florida, with locally higher gustsupwards of 35 mphacross the Panhandle.
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Drier air will also filter into the Panhandle in the wake of the front, with lower relative humidities (35-40%) encouragingsensitive wildfire conditions, though the overnight rainfall will keep the wildfire risk lower.
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Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower to middle 60s across the Panhandle this afternoon and upper 60s to lower 70s across the Big Bend.
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Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected for Northeast Florida with middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula.
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Feels-like temperatures may reach thelower 90sthroughout portions of the interior Peninsula.
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Tonight, a few lingering showers are expected across Central and South Florida as the front begins to stall and dissipate (25-55% chance of rain), with the greatest coverage of activity over the East-Central Peninsula.
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Winds will begin to subside statewide through the evening, though breezy winds with gustsupwards of 25 mph will still linger along the I-95 corridor.
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Low temperatures will cool off into the lower to middle 40s across the Panhandle and Big Bend tonight, with upper 40s to lower 50s throughout Northeast Florida.
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Temperatures may feel like theupper 30sacross portions of the Panhandle north of the I-10 corridor near sunrise Friday.
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Lows in the 60s to lower 70s can be expected along and south of the I-4 corridor.
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Ahigh risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle beaches today; amoderate risk remains for all East Coast beaches
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Surf will increase to2-4' for all Panhandle beaches today and through tonight.
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For the East Coast, surf of 2-3' will increase to near6-8'by sunrise Friday. AHigh Surf Advisorymay be issued if conditions warrant.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, March 11th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Foggy conditionsthis morning, some of which islocally dense across the Big Bend and interior South Florida, will continue to slowly lift and dissipate as the sun rises over the Sunshine State.
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High pressure will remain over the state today, keeping mostly dry conditions in place with mostly sunny skies prevailing.
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Relative humidities will dipnear critical thresholds across the interior Peninsula today (35-40%) which will continue to createsensitive tolocally elevated wildfire conditions.
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High temperatures will reach well into the middle to upper 80s statewide, withlower 90s expected throughout the Peninsula;daily record highswill be approached in many locations.
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Breezy winds will develop across the Panhandle this afternoon, with gustsupwards of 25 mph expected.
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Active weather makes a quick return to the state tonight ahead of an approaching frontal system along the Gulf Coast.
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Astrong to severe line of thunderstormstrekking across the deep south is expected to arrive to the western Panhandle shortly after midnight (85-near 100% chance of rain).
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ASlight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked for the western Panhandle tonight where this line of storms could produce a few damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), small hail, and a few tornadoes.
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AMarginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked for the eastern Panhandle and nudging into the Big Bend (30-70% chance of rain) as the line of storms is expected to slowly weaken, though similar hazards still exist as the line of thunderstorms enter the region towards sunrise.
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There is no organized risk for flash flooding with this activity, howevernuisance flooding andponding of water cannot be ruled out in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.
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Rainfall totals between 0.5-1" are expected across much of the Panhandle and Big Bend, though localized amountsupwards of 2-3" cannot be ruled out.
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Ahead of the front, areas offog and low clouds, some of which could belocally dense, is expected, especially along the Big Bend, Nature Coast, and West-Central Florida coastlines.
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Low temperatures in the middle 60s to lower 70s are expected nearly statewide, outside of the far western Panhandle where rainfall and cloud cover will bring lows into the upper 50s.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentsis expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with a localhigh riskfor all First Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, March 10th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Foggy conditionsthis morning will continue to gradually lift and dissipate as the sun rises over the Sunshine State.
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High pressure across the state will help to keep things dry today, with a brief chance for some showers along East-Central Florida with the help of the sea breeze (10-20% chance of rain).
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Dry air aloft should limit thunderstorm activity becoming embedded within any of these showers.
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Relative humidity values will dipnear critical thresholds (35-40%)this afternoon across the interior Big Bend and Peninsula creatingsensitive wildfire conditions.
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High temperatures will reach well into the 80s andlower 90sacross the state this afternoon, with some placesbreaking their record high temperatures.
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Dry conditions will persist throughout the overnight hours throughout the state.
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Low-level moisture and calm winds will allow forwidespread fog to develop across the state, with instances of patchy dense fog possible.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 60s and lower 70s statewide, with the Keys falling into the middle 70s.
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Amoderate risk for rip currentshas returned to nearly all Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with alocally high riskalong Palm Beach County.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, March 9th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Patchy to dense fog extends across the state this morning and has reduced visibilities.
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Fog will be slow to lift and mix out throughout the morning hours.
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High pressure extending over the state will help to bring mostly dry conditions throughout the day, but some scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible across South Florida this afternoon (15-30% chance of rain).
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Rainfall totals are expected to remain below 0.5", but any thunderstorm will be capable of producing a quick 1-2".
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A weakening upper-level disturbance will eclipse the state line and the Panhandle this afternoon and evening, which may help for another brief round of isolated showers and embedded storms.
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The greatest risk for severe weather is to the north of the Panhandle, but anisolated strong to severe thunderstorm could cross the state line or develop along the Panhandle.
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These stronger thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning, damaging wind gusts (upwards of 50-60 mph), small hail and locally heavy rainfall.
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Moisture will be more limited today keeping the chance and coverage for shower and thunderstorm activity lower for the rest of the state, but where there is moisture available showers will likely develop.
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High temperatures are expected to reach the upper 70s to upper 80s throughout the state with interior areas across the Peninsula reaching 90-degrees.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity that manages to develop during the daytime will quickly dissipate or shift towards the coastal waters this evening and overnight.
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Widespread patchy fog can be expected to develop overnight and into Tuesday morning statewide, with instances of dense fog possible.
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Low temperatures will fall into the 60s and lower 70s overnight.
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Amoderate risk for rip currents returns to the East Coast today, while amoderate to high riskcontinues along the Panhandle.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, March 8th, 2026
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
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Widespread foghas developed this morning across the state, with areas of dense fog across the Big Bend and the northeastern Peninsula, and will gradually lift and mix out.
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A cold front is gradually making its way eastward today, allowing for scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms to develop this morning across the Panhandle.
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These showers and thunderstorms will continue to move eastward across the Panhandle and into the Big Bend throughout the day before lifting northward away from the state and dissipating (30-65% chance of rain).
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Any thunderstorm may becomelocally strong to severeand produce frequent lightning, erratic winds, small hail and heavy downpours.
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The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking aMarginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Floodingacross the Panhandle where there is the greatest chance for locally heavy downpours and repeated thunderstorm activity that could bring localized flash flooding.
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Rainfall totals of 1-2” are likely for the Panhandle, withlocally higher totalsupwards of 3-4” with any heavy downpours or repeated activity.
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Sea breeze showers thunderstorms across the Peninsula will be possible as well, where they can produce a quick 1-2”.
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Across the Peninsula, dry conditions can be expected to start off the day. Moving into the afternoon and evening hours the sea breeze gets going, and enough low-level moisture will help to create scattered showers and thunderstorms across the interior regions (30-55% chance of rain).
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Cloud cover and elevated rain chances will keep high temperatures in the 70s across the Panhandle.
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High temperatures will continue to surge into the middle to upper 80s for the rest of the state with the interior peninsula possiblyreaching 90-degrees.
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Shower and thunderstorm activity this evening and overnight will largely dissipate after midnight, with a few showers lingering near the eastern coastline and the I-95 corridor (10-15% chance of rain).
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Widespread fogdevelopment can be expected statewide overnight and into Monday morning given increased low-level moisture and calm winds. Instances ofdense fogwill be possible throughout the Big Bend and Nature Coast early Monday morning.
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Low temperatures will remain in the 60s and lower 70s throughout the state overnight.
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Breezy onshore winds will persist along the Florida East Coast and the Panhandle keeping ahigh risk for rip currentsin place for numerous beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
