RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, July 26, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure and deep tropical moisture will drive daily showers and thunderstorms over the next few days.
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across North Florida with the sea breezes this afternoon and evening (60-85% chance of rain).
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms across Central and South Florida along the sea breeze boundaries this afternoon and evening, primarily over interior and western portions of the Peninsula (45-75% chance of rain).
- Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across North Florida and portions of Central Florida where heavy downpours in slow-moving thunderstorms could produce localized flooding at times over urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas and over already saturated grounds.
- Drier air along the Keys and the Southeast and Central-East Coasts will allow for only isolated activity with the sea breezes (15-35% chance of rain).
- Locally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
- Heat indices will reach the upper 90s and triple digits (100-105); Localized areas could briefly see heat index values reach Heat Advisory criteria.
- Moderate risk for rip currents along several Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches.
- Low temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s.
- Showers and thunderstorms will linger into the early overnight hours before gradually dissipate (15-35% chance of rain).
- A few showers and thunderstorms will likely linger through the overnight hours across the Northern and Western Peninsula (40-60% chance of rain).
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog cannot be ruled out overnight and early Saturday morning over saturated grounds.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, July 25, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected along and ahead of the frontal boundary and sea breeze boundaries across North Florida this afternoon and evening (50-85% chance of rain).
- Abundant moisture giving way to heavy downpours and slow-moving or training thunderstorms could bring instances of localized flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas; Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Florida Panhandle and eastern I-10 Corridor.
- Drier air across Central and South Florida will allow for only a few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms along the sea breezes this afternoon (15-45% chance of rain).
- Locally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph), and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out statewide.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s with heat index values in the upper 90s and triple digits (100-106).
- Heat Advisories are in effect for Miami-Dade and Broward counties until this evening as heat indices of 102-105-degrees are anticipated.
- Drought conditions have notably improved on this week’s drought monitor update.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle and East Coast.
- Scattered showers and thunderstorms will persist into the overnight hours across North Florida and along the Nature Coast (40-60% chance of rain) but gradually dissipate elsewhere (10-35% chance of rain).
- Low temperatures in the middle 70s to middle 80s.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, July 24, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A tropical wave moving northwestward from the Bahamas is currently producing isolated showers with a few thunderstorms along the Panhandle and Big Bend coastline.
- Moisture being pulled northward from the tropics will help to aid additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across North Florida throughout the day as a near stationary front remains draped over the U.S. Southeast (70-95% chance of rain).
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle and extending towards the I-75 corridor where heavy downpours could lead to instances of localized flooding.
- Throughout the Peninsula, the typical summertime thunderstorm pattern can be expected to develop this afternoon and evening, with the greatest coverage across the western Peninsula as the Atlantic sea breeze will push further west (55-70% chance of rain).
- Any thunderstorm that develops could become strong to severe and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph) and heavy downpours.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected with the help of high pressure over the western Atlantic extending across the state.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s can be expected with heat index values reaching the upper 90s to middle 100s.
- While heat index values remain just below heat advisory criteria, areas locally along the I-75 corridor and portions of South Florida could see values briefly reach criteria before cloud cover or thunderstorms move in overhead.
- Showers and thunderstorms may linger just offshore or along the immediate Panhandle and Big Bend coastline overnight and early Thursday morning before attempting to push inland during the predawn hours (20-40% chance of rain).
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for all Florida East Coast beaches due to surf of 2-4’ and slightly stronger onshore winds. Numerous Panhandle beaches will continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, July 23rd, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure along the western Atlantic and Bermuda will be the main feature dominating the weather pattern across the Sunshine State allowing moisture to flow northward and create summertime thunderstorms (55-80% chance of rain).
- A tropical wave moving toward the Bahamas and the eastern Florida Peninsula will bring morning showers and thunderstorms across portions of South Florida and the Keys before daytime heating allows for additional showers and thunderstorms to develop.
- Lingering Saharan Dry Air may limit widespread showers and thunderstorms from developing along and east of the I-95 corridor and other portions of the Peninsula.
- Organized severe weather is not anticipated, but locally strong to severe thunderstorms may develop and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph) and heavy downpours.
- Abundant moisture aiding shower and thunderstorm development throughout the afternoon and evening could produce heavy downpours that lead to instances of localized flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Warm and muggy conditions can be expected to continue statewide as high temperatures will reach the low to middle 90s and heat index values return to triple digits (100-109-degrees).
- While heat advisories have not been issued, areas locally could briefly see heat index values reach criteria before cloud cover or thunderstorms move in overhead. Conditions will be monitored throughout the day to see if heat advisories may be needed.
- The persistent weather pattern and onshore winds will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along numerous Panhandle beaches and all Florida East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, July 22nd, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- High pressure over the western Atlantic and Bermuda will persist for the next few days bringing warm and humid conditions and allowing for daily showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze.
- Isolated showers with embedded thunderstorms will gradually more inland along the Panhandle from the adjacent gulf waters throughout the morning hours and into midday, while an approaching tropical wave will bring an increase in showers and thunderstorms along portions of South Florida this morning.
- Southerly to southeasterly winds will continue to pull moisture northward from the tropics allowing for scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop along the sea breeze (65-85% chance of rain).
- Lingering Saharan Dry Air will move slightly northward along the I-95 corridor across portions of Northeast and East-Central Florida keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated to scattered in nature.
- Organized severe weather is not expected; however, locally strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-60 mph) and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along portions of the far western Panhandle where multiple showers and thunderstorms moving onshore over recently saturated grounds and soils could bring localized flooding within heavy downpours throughout the day.
- High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s can be expected this afternoon, with heat index values reaching the low to middle 100s.
- Earlier onset of cloud cover and thunderstorm activity will keep heat index values near or just below heat advisory criteria, but areas locally could see values briefly reach heat advisory criteria before cloud cover or thunderstorms develop.
- Areas of patchy fog could develop overnight and early Tuesday morning along portions of the Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor following rainfall earlier in the day and calm conditions developing overnight.
- Persistent onshore winds will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents for numerous Panhandle beaches and all Florida East Coast beaches.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
