RSS Morning Sitrep
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for November 14th, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A cold front associated with an area of low pressure and upper-level disturbance will shift eastward into the Florida Panhandle today, giving way to isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the day (25-50% chance of rain).
- The cold front will continue to move eastward through the Big Bend and Northern Peninsula tonight into Friday morning, allowing isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms to persist through the overnight hours along and ahead of the frontal boundary (20-45% chance of rain).
- Mostly dry conditions can be expected through the Peninsula and Keys today and tonight with a brief shower or two possible at times as high pressure lingers ahead of the cold front (near 0-15% chance of rain).
- Breezy winds near 5-15 mph with gusts upwards of 10-20 mph can be expected across the state, primarily along and near the frontal boundary as it moves into the state.
- High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s along the Florida Panhandle with low to middle 80s elsewhere.
- Moderate to high risk for rip currents along East Coast and Florida Panhandle.
- Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect along the St. Johns River Basin, East Coast, and Keys for minor to moderate coastal floodingnear and at times of high tide.
- Minor tomoderate riverine floodingcontinues along portions of the Withlacoochee and St. Johns Rivers.
- Low temperatures in the upper 40s to middle 50s across the Florida Panhandle and into the Suwannee Valley with upper 50s to low 60s through the rest of the Northern Peninsula, upper 60s to low 70s across Central and South Florida, and middle 70s along the Keys.
- As of 7 AM EST, Tropical Depression Nineteen is located about 250 miles east of Isla Guanaja Honduras moving westward at 15 mph. This motion should continue through today, taking the system across the western Caribbean Sea. The depression is expected to stall and meander near the north coast of Honduras late Friday and through the weekend. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and continue strengthening, if it remains over water.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, November 13, 2024
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Strong high pressure over the Northeast U.S. will bring breezy conditions across the state this afternoon as wind gusts of 15-20 mph developing across the state with stronger wind gusts of 25-30 mph across portions of South Florida and the Keys.
- Mostly dry conditions can be expected throughout the daytime hours with spotty to isolated showers along the Florida East Coast and I-95 corridor with onshore winds (15-30% chance of rain).
- A frontal system moving eastward across the Midwest and Deep South will bring a warm front northward along the western Panhandle later today allowing for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms (25-50% chance of rain).
- A cold front will then follow behind bringing additional scattered showers and thunderstorms throughout the overnight hours as it moves eastward along the I-10 corridor (45-75% chance of rain).
- Severe weather is not expected; however, a few stronger thunderstorms may develop or drift beyond the state line and bring locally gusty winds and heavy rains.
- The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the far western Panhandle as moisture being pulled northward from the Gulf waters may bring locally heavy downpours that lead to instances of localized flooding.
- High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s can be expected across North Florida, low to middle 80s across East Florida and middle to upper 80s across West Florida this afternoon.
- A high risk for rip currents can be expected across Panhandle and East Coast beaches due as breezy onshore winds and dangerous ocean swells return.
- King Tides will return over the next few days ahead of the approaching Full Moon later this week allowing for elevated tides to create instances of minor coastal flooding along portions of the East Coast through the Florida Keys.
- Coastal Flood Advisories have been issued for the tidal St. Johns River and the Northeast Florida coast, with Coastal Flood Statements along Southeast Florida and the Keys.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues along portions of the Withlacoochee River, while moderate flooding continues for the St. Johns River at Astor.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Central and Western Caribbean Sea (Invest 99L): A broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while the system moves slowly westward into the western Caribbean Sea. Afterward, further development is likely while the disturbance meanders over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend. The system is expected to turn slowly northwestward by early next week. Regardless of development, heavy rains are expected over Jamaica during the next day or so. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 5-7days, at least, but will continue to be closely monitored.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…high…90%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…high…90%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, November 12th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Patchy to locally dense fog across North and Central Florida will gradually lift and dissipate by the mid-mornings.
- The weak cold front from yesterday will continue to slowly make its way southward towards the I-4 corridor throughout the day, but remain mostly dry as it moves through.
- Elevated moisture will continue to be pulled northward from the Gulf waters allowing for isolated to scattered showers throughout the morning hours across the western Panhandle (20-45% chance of rain).
- Isolated showers will be possible across the eastern Peninsula throughout the day as onshore winds bring showers onshore (15-20% chance of rain).
- Wind gusts of 10-15 mph will develop by the late afternoon hours, with stronger wind gusts of 20 mph across Southeast Florida and the Keys.
- High temperatures in the upper 70s to low 80s can be expected across North Florida, with above normal high temperatures in the middle to upper 80s persisting across the Peninsula.
- Mostly dry conditions will return tonight as the frontal boundary continues to push towards the Keys and high pressure develops over the eastern U.S. (15-25% chance of rain).
- A moderate to high risk for rip currents continues for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches due to breezy onshore winds and lingering ocean swells.
- King Tides will return by mid-to-late week and bring instances of minor coastal flooding for East Coast and Keys due to elevated tides and onshore winds. Coastal Flood Statements have been issued across portions of Southeast Florida and the Keys.
- Minor to moderate to riverine flooding continues for Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basin as water levels continue to slowly decline.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Central and Western Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development. A tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the week as the system moves slowly westward into the Caribbean Sea. Afterward, the disturbance is expected to meander over the western Caribbean Sea through the weekend and begin moving slowly, generally northwestward, by early next week. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days, at least, but will continue to be monitored.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…medium…40%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…high…80%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Monday, November 11th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- Patchy fog this morning across North and Central Florida will gradually dissipate and lift by the mid-to-late morning hours.
- A weak cold front will bring scattered to widespread showers across the western Panhandle as it moves towards the Southeast U.S. throughout the day, with additional isolated showers extending across the I-10 corridor (45-60% chance of rain).
- There is no organized risk for flash flooding today; however, instances of locally heavier rainfall or multiple rounds of shower activity along the western Panhandle could bring instances of localized flooding for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
- Onshore winds along the Florida East Coast will continue to bring isolated showers onshore across East-Central and Southeast Florida throughout the day (20-25% chance of rain).
- Above normal high temperatures for this year will persist statewide reaching the upper 70s to low 80s across the Panhandle and middle to upper 80s across the Peninsula.
- Scattered showers will continue overnight across the western Panhandle as the frontal boundary moves into the Panhandle, but mostly dry conditions can be expected elsewhere across the state (15-30% chance of rain).
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog may develop overnight or early Tuesday morning across the Suwannee Valley and the I-75 corridor.
- Despite ocean swells reducing across Panhandle and East Florida beaches, persistent onshore winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels continue to slowly decline.
- The Withlacoochee at Croom and St. Johns near Sanford are forecast to fall below flood stage later today or tomorrow.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring:
- Western Caribbean Sea: A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the western Caribbean Sea during the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of the system thereafter. A tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend while slowly moving westward. This system poses no direct threat to Florida over the next 7-10 days, at least, but will continue to be monitored.
- *Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
- *Formation chance through 7 days…medium…40%.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Sunday, November 10th, 2024.
Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
- A staled frontal boundary just offshore from Northeast Florida is bringing isolated to widely scattered showers along portions of the Northeast and East-Central Florida coast.
- High pressure over the eastern U.S. will continue to bring mostly dry conditions throughout most of the state, with isolated spotty showers possible (10-20% chance of rain).
- The greatest chance for showers, or possible isolated thunderstorms, will be along the immediate Florida East Coast and Northeast Florida as onshore winds bring activity onshore from the coastal waters (20-55% chance of rain).
- Breezy wind gusts of 10-15 mph will develop across the state, with stronger wind gusts of 20-25 mph possible across portions of East-Central and Southeast Florida.
- Above normal high temperatures for this time of year can be expected to persist statewide as high temperatures will reach the 80s.
- Drier conditions will return throughout the Big Bend and Peninsula, but areas across the western Panhandle and Southeast Florida will continue to see shower activity.
- An upper-level feature moving over the far western Panhandle will give way to an increase in shower and possible thunderstorm activity overnight (20-35% chance of rain).
- Moisture associated with a non-tropical upper-level area of low pressure will begin to move into Southeast Florida tonight, bringing a chance for additional showers (20-30% chance of rain).
- Areas of patchy to locally dense fog may be develop overnight or early Monday morning throughout much of North Florida and extend along the lower Suwannee Valley and I-75 corridor.
- Dangerous ocean swells and onshore winds will continue to create a and onshore winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along all Panhandle and East Coast beaches, while a low risk returns to the West Coast.
- Onshore winds and increased surf may lead to localized instances of beach erosion along the far western Panhandle beaches.
- Minor to moderate riverine flooding continues for the Withlacoochee and St. Johns River basins as water levels slowly decline.
- The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor:
- Tropical Storm Rafael: As of 4:00 AM EST, Rafael is located about 355 miles north-northwest or Progreso, Mexico and moving north-northwestward at 2 mph. The storm is expected to meander over the central Gulf of Mexico through tonight, then turn toward the south and south-south-west on Monday and Tuesday. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 40 mph with higher gusts. Weakening is expected through early next week, and Rafael is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical remnant low by Monday. Swells generated by Rafael are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions along the Gulf Coast for the next few days.
- Near the Bahamas (Invest 98L): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have decrease in areal coverage since yesterday near an upper-level area of low pressure located less than a couple hundred miles east of the central Bahamas. Development is becoming less likely as the system is forecast to reach more unfavorable conditions later today. Regardless of development, locally heavy rains and gusty winds are possible as the system moves generally westward across the Bahamas through tonight. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is outlooking a low (10%) chance of development through the next 48 hours and next 7 days. Regardless of development, an increase in rain chances can be anticipated across portions of the Peninsula late this weekend into early next week.
To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.
