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RSS Morning Sitrep

6/22/2024 9:10:41 AM

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Saturday, June 22nd, 2024

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • A wet weather pattern will begin to take hold statewide this weekend as Invest 92L (near 0% chance of development) moves off to the northeast and dissipates and high pressure builds back in across the state.
  • Scattered to numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms across the Northern Peninsula this afternoon as the tropical airmass sea breezes interact (55-75% chance of rain).
  • Sea breezes will develop late this morning and push inland through the afternoon and early evening, giving way to scattered to numerous across the Peninsula and Keys (45-70% chance of rain).
  • A few strong to severe thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy downpours cannot be ruled out.
  • Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding north of Lake Okeechobee through the Central and Northern Peninsula as heavy downpours may give way to instances of flooding and ponding of water.
  • The Florida Panhandle will remain relatively dry throughout the day as prevailing northerly flow allows drier air to linger (near 0-25% chance of rain).
  • High temperatures in the middle 80s to upper 90s; Heat indices in the upper 90s and triple digits (100-108).
  • Localized areas in the Suwannee Valley and along the I-4 corridor could briefly reach Heat Advisory criteria.
  • Moderate to high risk for rip currents along Panhandle and East Coast.
  • Locally sensitive wildfire conditions along Florida Panhandle.
  • Shower and thunderstorm activity will linger into the evening and early overnight hours across the Peninsula and Keys before gradually dissipating (35-60% chance of rain) with activity continuing through the overnight hours along the Northeast Coast (60-75% chance of rain).
  • Drier air will maintain dry conditions across the Florida Panhandle tonight (near 0-20% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures in the middle 70s to low 80s.
  • NHC is monitoring a broad low-pressure system over the Southwestern Gulf of Mexico; a tropical depression could form before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico Sunday night (50%,  chance of development); no direct threat to Florida.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report

6/21/2024 9:55:10 AM

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Friday, June 21st, 2024

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Invest 92L is located around 150 miles east-southeast of Jacksonville and will continue to move towards the Northeast Florida/Southeast Georgia Coast today, reaching the coast by tonight; medium (50%) chance of development through 48 hours; Regardless of any further development, heavy rainfall, gusty winds, and coastal impacts will be possible today.
  • Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected across the Northern Peninsula and Eastern Big Bend today (55-75% chance of rain).
  • Training bands of heavy rainfall may give way to instances of flooding and ponding of water along urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas.
  • Lingering drier air will allow for only isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms elsewhere this afternoon and evening (near 0-35% chance of rain).
  • High temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s along the Eastern Peninsula and Keys and low to middle 90s elsewhere.
  • Heat indices in the middle 90s along the Panhandle and upper 90s to triple digits (100-104) elsewhere.
  • Wind gusts near 15-25 mph along the East Coast and Keys today.
  • High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the Northeast Coast beaches through this afternoon due for large breaking and dangerous beach and boating conditions.
  • Localized coastal flooding and minor coastal erosion will be possible along the Northeast Coast during times of high tide today.
  • High risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle and East Coast.
  • Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will continue across the Northern Peninsula tonight as Invest 92L reaches the coast (40-65% chance of rain) but generally dissipate elsewhere across the state (5-45% chance of rain).
  • Low temperatures will remain in the low to middle 70s across North Florida, middle to upper 70s across Central Florida, and Upper 70s to low 80s across South Florida and the Keys.
  • NHC is monitoring a broad area of low pressure forecast to form over southeastern Mexico later today; environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development; medium (60%) chance of formation through 7 day; no direct threat to Florida.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

6/20/2024 10:05:25 AM

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Thursday, June 20, 2024

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Scattered to numerous showers and a few thunderstorms moving onshore along the East Coast this morning, pushing inland with breezy easterly flow.
  • An area of low pressure in the Southwestern Atlantic (Invest 92L) is forecast to approach the Northeast Florida Peninsula today into tonight before moving inland somewhere in the vicinity of the Northeast Florida Coast early Friday morning; Chance of development is medium (40%) over the next 48 hours.
  • Drier air wrapping around the north of Invest 92L will limit shower and thunderstorm activity across the state this afternoon and evening (20-55% chance of rain).
  • Wind gusts upwards of 20-26 mph expected across the state with locally higher gusts upwards of 30-35 mph along the Northern Peninsula.
  • High temperatures in the upper 80s to middle 90s.
  • Heat indices in the upper 90s to low triple digits (100-103) along the Florida Panhandle, Western Peninsula, and Keys.
  • Low temperatures in the 70s nearly statewide with low 80s along the Keys.
  • As Invest 92L approaches late tonight, numerous showers and embedded thunderstorms producing gusty winds and heavy rainfall will likely develop along the Northeast Coast (60-90% chance of rain).
  • Localized flooding and localized coastal flooding and erosion may be possible along urban areas and beachfront locations across Northeast Florida during times of high tide late tonight.
  • The rest of the state will see shower and thunderstorm activity linger into the evening before dissipating overnight (10-35% chance of rain).
  • High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the Western Panhandle, Northeast Coast, and Central-East Coast as large breaking waves and dangerous beach and boating conditions persist.
  • High risk for rip currents along Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches; moderate risk for several West Coast beaches.
  • Drought conditions have been removed from South Florida, improved across Central Florida, and been introduced to the Northern Peninsula.
  • Tropical Storm Alberto is forecast to dissipate over Mexico later today or tonight.
  • A broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over Southeastern Mexico and Northern Central America on Friday; Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development; medium (50%) chance of development over the next 7 days.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report

6/19/2024 9:55:10 AM

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Wednesday, June 19th, 2024

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • Scattered showers have developed and pushed onshore along the Space Coast this morning, with isolated thunderstorms embedded within.
  • Breezy easterly winds will bring moisture across the Peninsula from the Atlantic waters allowing for scattered to numerous showers, with embedded thunderstorms (50-65% chance of rain).
  • Increasing moisture along the coastal Panhandle will bring increasing shower chances, with the help of the sea breeze.
  • Breezy wind gusts of 25-35 mph can be expected statewide due to a strong pressure difference, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 40 mph along coastal portions of the Panhandle and the East Coast.
  • Heat index values in the upper 90s can be expected from the Panhandle, along West Florida and throughout portions of South Florida this afternoon. Triple digits heat index values (100-102) cannot be ruled out for portions of the Panhandle coastline and West-Central Florida.
  • Wind gusts will calm to 15-25 mph overnight, with the strongest wind gusts continuing along the East Coast.
  • Scattered showers will likely continue to push eastward and inland towards the I-95 corridor across the eastern Peninsula late this evening and overnight (35-55% chance of rain).
  • Dangerous beach and surf conditions will continue along several Panhandle and East Coast beaches due wave heights of 5-8’ and a high risk for rip currents.
  • Instances of localized and minor tidal flooding cannot be ruled out along portions of the far western Panhandle and the East Coast due to elevated surf near and during times of high tide.
  • Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) One is located about 295 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas and moving west-northwestward at 8 mph. Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph with stronger gusts. Some increase in strength is possible before the system reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico by late tonight or early Thursday. The disturbance is forecast to become a tropical storm later today. This system poses no direct threat to Florida but will bring dangerous surf and a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle beaches throughout the week.
  • An area of showers and thunderstorms located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with an upper-level disturbance. This system is forecast to approach the coast of the southeastern U.S. by the latter portions of this week. There is a low chance (20%) for development through the next 7 days. This system continues to be monitored, but regardless of development will bring increasing rain chances, elevated surf and a high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast.
  • Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development of this system early next week. Formation chances through the next 7 days are low (30%). This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report

6/18/2024 9:58:28 AM

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report for Tuesday, June 18th, 2024

Florida State Watch Office Morning Situation Report

EOC Activation Level: Level 2
Meteorological Summary:
  • High pressure over the Carolina’s and western Atlantic waters will continue to bring partly cloudy to mostly sunny skies throughout the Sunshine State.
  • Drier conditions will limit shower and thunderstorm activity, but breezy onshore winds will bring isolated to widely scattered showers and a few rumbles of thunder along the East Coast with the greatest coverage over Treasure Coast (35-50% chance of rain).
  • Any showers and possible thunderstorms that develop should remain light and brief in nature throughout the afternoon and evening hours.
  • A strong pressure difference between the area of high pressure and Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) One over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico will create breezy wind gusts of 20-25 mph nearly statewide, with the strongest wind gusts upwards of 30 mph along the East Coast.
  • Heat index values will reach the low to middle 90s across East Florida with the help of breezy onshore winds, and middle to upper 90s across the Panhandle and West Florida with value reaching triple digits (100-102) for portions of West-Central and Southwest Florida.
  • Breezy onshore winds will continue bring isolated showers onshore from the Atlantic waters along the eastern Peninsula throughout the overnight hours (25-40% chance of rain).
  • Dangerous beach and boating conditions can be expected for all Panhandle and East Coast beaches due to elevated surf of 3-6’ and a high risk for rip currents.
  • As of 8:00 AM EDT, Potential Tropical Cyclone (PTC) One was located about 420 miles southeast of Brownsville, Texas and moving northward at 6 mph with maximum winds near 40 mph. Some increase in strength is likely during the next 36 hours, and the disturbance is likely to become a tropical storm by Wednesday as it approaches the western Gulf coast. This system poses no direct threat to Florida but will bring dangerous surf and boating conditions and a high risk for rip currents along Panhandle beaches throughout the week.
  • An area of cloudiness and showers located several hundred miles east of the Bahamas is associated with a surface trough and upper-level area of low pressure. Formation chances through the next 48 hours remain low (10%), as well as over the next 7 days (20%). This system continues to be monitored, but regardless of development will bring increasing rain chances, elevated surf and a high rip currents along the Florida East Coast by middle to latter portions of this week.
  • Another broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico this weekend. Formation chances are low (20%) through the next 7 days. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time.

To view the complete Morning Situation Report, please select the link below.

Morning Situation Report

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