Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, January 31, 2026
...Active Weather Day Expected as a Cold Front Slides South Across the Peninsula this Morning... Scattered Showers Expected South of I-4 Through the Morning and Early Afternoon Hours... Gusty Winds Develop Statewide Behind this Front; Wind Advisories are in Effect... Elevated Wildfire Conditions Expected Across the Panhandle with Ongoing Drought, Gusty Winds, and Low Relative Humidities... Very Cold Afternoon Highs Across the Panhandle and Big Bend - Temperatures to Feel Like the 20s and 30s this Afternoon... A Slight Chance of a Snow Flurry Across West-Central Florida This Evening and Tonight; No Impacts or Accumulations Expected... Extremely Cold Temperatures Plunge Southward Tonight... Sub-freezing Temperatures Extend into Interior South Florida... Freeze Warnings in Effect Statewide... Extreme Cold Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories in Effect Statewide as Lingering Gusty Winds and Cold Temperatures Bring Dangerous Wind Chills to the Sunshine State... High Surf Advisories in Effect Along Panhandle and West Coast Beaches for Elevated Surf Later Today and Tonight... High Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle & West Coast Beaches; Moderate Risk for East Coast...
Updated at 9:37 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chills (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Panhandle Statewide |
North, Central, and Interior South FL Coastal West-Central & South FL
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Statewide Coastal South FL |
Panhandle & West Coast Palm Beach County East Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Our potent cold front responsible for ushering in our next blast of arctic air is still pushing through Central and South Florida this morning. Scattered showers are ongoing mainly south of the I-4 corridor, and this activity will continue to slide south across the rest of the Peninsula through the mid-afternoon hours (40-70% chance of rain). In the wake of this front, gusty northwesterly winds will begin to develop as the low-pressure system off the Carolina coast rapidly strengthens. Wind Advisories are in effect throughout much of the state for wind gusts upwards of 40 mph. A few coastal locations may see occasional gusts upwards of 45 mph at times. These gusty winds will be oriented nearly onshore along parts of the Florida West Coast which may allow for a few Gulf-effect showers to stream onshore later this evening, if any moisture is still locally available. If so, then a few light snow flurries cannot be ruled out, especially across Pasco, Hillsborough, Pinellas, and Manatee counties. No impacts or accumulations are expected with any of this activity, should it occur. Much drier air behind the front will filter into the Panhandle this afternoon with near critically low relative humidities. Paired with the gusty winds and ongoing drought, elevated wildfire conditions may develop this afternoon across the Panhandle.
High temperatures this afternoon will struggle to climb out of the middle 30s to lower 40s across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Northeast Florida can expect highs in the upper 40s to middle 50s. Across Central and South Florida, high temperatures today will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s. With the gusty winds, temperatures will feel like the 20s and 30s across the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon.
A mostly dry night is expected statewide in the wake of our front. However, a few sprinkles or snow flurries cannot be ruled out along the West-Central Florida coastline through the overnight hours (15-20% chance of rain). Any of this activity will be light and no impacts are expected from any snow. Extremely cold temperatures will begin to be felt tonight as an arctic high pressure noses into the state. Low temperatures will reach into the upper teens to lower 20s throughout North Florida, with middle to upper 20s across all North and interior South Florida. Freeze Warnings are in effect for nearly all of North, Central, and interior South Florida. Along the West-Central and South Florida coastlines, lows will remain slightly above freezing, but still in the middle to upper 30s. The Keys will reach the 40s tonight.
Breezy wind gusts upwards of 30 mph will last through the night across the Panhandle, with higher gusts upwards of 40 mph across the Peninsula. Coastal locations may see occasionally higher gusts. This will make feels-like temperatures extremely cold through the nighttime hours. Wind chills by daybreak Sunday morning will be in the single digits and lower teens throughout North and interior Central Florida. Temperatures will feel like the lower to middle 20s across coastal West-Central and South Florida, while interior South Florida will see feels-like temperatures upper teens to lower 20s. Extreme Cold Warnings are in effect for much of the state, while Cold Weather Advisories are in effect for coastal locations of West-Central and South Florida.
Rip Currents: Gusty shoreline winds and building seas will bring a high risk for rip currents to all Panhandle and West Coast beaches today. Along the East Coast, a moderate risk for rip currents is expected as the breezy winds and building surf will be slower to develop. A local high risk is expected for Palm Beach County beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will significantly increase this afternoon across all Panhandle and West Coast beaches as a large ocean swell begins to develop within the Gulf. Waves of 3-5’ can be expected through tonight for all Panhandle beaches, with a few waves upwards of 7’ possible for Gulf County beaches. Similarly, 3-5’ waves will reach the West Coast beaches this afternoon but will increase to 6-8’ tonight and by daybreak Sunday. A few waves upwards of 10’ cannot be ruled out tonight within the surf zone. Along the East Coast, surf of 2-4’ this afternoon will increase to 5-8’ tonight. Southeast Florida beaches will see waves of 1-2’ this afternoon, increasing to 3-5’ tonight. High Surf Advisories are currently in effect for coastal Gulf County in the Panhandle and all West Coast beaches through tonight and may be expanded to include East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to very low concentrations in Walton County, background to medium concentrations in Bay County, and low concentrations in Gulf County across the Panhandle. In Southwest Florida, red tide was observed at background to very low concentrations offshore Hillsborough and Lee County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at background concentrations from Balm Beach County (valid 1/31/2026).
Coastal Flooding: Strong onshore winds and large surf may result in minor to moderate coastal flooding for Gulf-facing Florida Keys shorelines later today and tonight near and during times of high tide. A Coastal Flood Statement or Coastal Flood Advisory may be issued later today.
Fire Weather: Our potent cold front will continue to sweep through Central and South Florida today with widely scattered showers ahead of it, which will keep the wildfire risk lower across much of the Peninsula. However, behind the front, much drier air and gusty winds will begin to filter into the state. Relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (30-35% RH values) across the Panhandle where, paired with wind gusts upwards of 40 mph, may lead to elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon. Locally greater wildfire risk cannot be ruled out in areas experiencing the most severe drought. These gusty winds will spread into the Peninsula later this afternoon and evening behind the frontal passage. Wind Advisories are in effect throughout much of the state for these gusty winds, lingering through the overnight hours. However, bitterly cold temperatures will quickly plunge southward across the state this afternoon and tonight which will help to reduce the overall wildfire risk. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 56 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,693 acres.
Drought (1/29/26): We saw the greatest rainfall over the past week mainly across the Panhandle and north of the I-10 corridor with our frontal passage last weekend (1/25). Here rainfall totals of 0.5-2” fell, yet the ongoing long-term drought was hardly impacted. On the latest Drought Monitor outlook, severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across much of North Florida and the I-10 corridor, expanding eastward to include the entire First Coast. Long-term (60 day) rainfall departures across the Nature Coast and North-Central Florida have neared 3-4” below normal, which has prompted the addition of an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) category. The extreme drought also remains untouched across the northern Big Bend region where, despite some rainfall, soil moisture levels and streamflows are well below normal. Across Central and South Florida, very little changes were made to this week’s outlook. Some slight expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Palm Beach and Martin counties where rainfall departures continue to dip below normal. Some slight improvement in drought conditions were found along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline with recent coastal shower activity. As of this outlook, 94% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 477 (+1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Widely scattered showers will pass through Central and South Florida today ahead of our potent cold frontal passage. Rainfall totals will be light, however, and generally below 0.2” at most. Should a few heavier showers develop, totals upwards of 0.5” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.81 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.85 feet below normal for this time of year.
