Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, November 10, 2025
...Chilly Start to the Morning Across Northern Florida...Cold Front to Continue to Push Offshore South Florida and the Keys - Isolated Showers Possible...Much Drier and Cooler Air to Rush In Behind Cold Front...Elevated and Critical Fire Danger Across North Florida Today - Red Flag Warnings Begin at Midday...Breezy Winds to Develop Statewide...First Widespread Freeze of the Season Tonight Throughout North Florida...Freeze Warnings for North Florida - Low Temperatures in the 20s and 30s...Breezy Winds Continue Overnight Leading to Cold Tuesday Morning...Wind Chills in Teens and 20s Across North Florida, 30s Across Central Florida and 30s and 40s Across South Florida...Cold Weather Advisories (Wind Chills) Nearly Statewide Through Tuesday Morning...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Statewide...
Updated at 10:11 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
North Florida Iso. West-Central Florida Iso. Central Florida |
North of I-10 Corridor North Florida Central Florida |
North & Interior Central Florida Statewide |
West Coast & Southeast FL Panhandle & East Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A chilly start to the morning as breezy winds will linger in the wake of the cold front pushing offshore today. Sunday’s cold front will make its final push through South Florida and the Keys this morning bringing isolated showers through the morning and into the early afternoon hours before drier air moves in (15-25% chance of rain). Northwesterly to northerly winds will usher much cooler and drier air southward throughout the state behind the cold front allowing for a near-zero chance of rain. Wind gusts will reach upwards of 15-20 mph throughout the state, with stronger wind gusts upwards of 25-30 mph especially closer towards the coasts. Drier conditions will allow for relative humidity values across North Florida to fall below critical thresholds (20-30%) this afternoon where drought conditions are ongoing and breezy winds gusts can be expected. Red Flag Warnings will go into effect at 1200 EST/1100CST across North Florida for elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon.
As cooler air moves into North Florida high temperatures will only reach the 50s this afternoon. The cooler air will begin to make its way to Central Florida keeping high temperatures in the 60s to lower 70s this afternoon. South Florida will see high temperatures in the middle 70s to lower 80s.
Breezy winds will linger through the evening and overnight hours as cooler air continues to sink southward into the Sunshine State. Dry conditions can be expected overnight with mostly clear skies, which will allow for temperatures to drop tonight. The first widespread freeze of the season can be expected tonight across North Florida as low temperatures will fall into the middle 20s to lower 30s throughout interior areas and lower to middle 30s along the coast. Freeze Warnings will go into effect tonight where low temperatures will become sub-freezing as low as 26-degrees. A Freeze Watch continues along the far western Panhandle where low temperatures could fall as low as 23-degrees by Tuesday morning. Low temperatures will fall into the 30s throughout interior Central Florida and lower 40s along the coastlines overnight. Even South Florida will see low temperatures in the upper 30s to upper 40s, with the Keys keeping to the 50s.
With lingering breezy winds and clear skies overnight and early Tuesday morning, wind chills or feels-like temperatures will fall into the upper teens to middle 20s across North Florida, middle 20s to lower 30s across Central Florida and middle 30s to middle 40s across South Florida. Cold Weather Advisories (Wind Chill Advisories) extend nearly statewide for Tuesday morning, except for Collier, Broward and Miami-Dade counties.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds and large ocean swells will create a moderate to high risk for rip currents statewide. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy winds and large ocean swells behind Sunday’s cold front will lead to wave heights of 2-5’ across the state. Larger breaking waves of 5-7’ will be possible along Nature Coast and extending along the Florida West Coast.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Franklin County, background to very low concentrations in Bay County, and low to high concentrations in Gulf County across Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Volusia County along the Florida East Coast. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida (11/7).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Very dry air will filter into North Florida today behind yesterday’s cold front allowing for relative humidity values to fall well below critical thresholds this afternoon (20-30%). Breezy northwesterly to northerly winds will persist throughout the day with wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph at times across the state. Due to ongoing drought conditions, critical relative humidity values and breezy winds elevated wildfire danger can be expected for North Florida this afternoon and Red Flag Warnings have been issued. New or ongoing wildfires may be able to spread easier due to available fuels and breezy winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 21 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 227 acres.
Drought: Very little beneficial rainfall fell over the past week across the state as high pressure and dry air kept any rain chances low. As such, very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor outlook. Across South Florida, some expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions further into inland Miami-Dade and Broward counties was introduced where warm temperatures and rainfall totals less than 1 inch occurred. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) remains in place along the entire I-75 corridor along the West Coast of Florida, extending inland into some interior counties such as Hardee and DeSoto. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced to this week’s outlook across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota counties where 30-day rainfall departures have reached 2-3 inches. Across North Florida, unfortunately the Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) Drought remain in place where, over the past 2 weeks, most locations have seen less than a half-inch of rain. No changes were made to the drought in these areas this week with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) conditions persisting for interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley. Although some showers are possible along a frontal passage this weekend and early next week across North Florida, widespread heavy rainfall is not expected to alleviate any of the ongoing drought. For the I-95 corridor and East Coast, soils remain saturated from heavy rainfall in October keeping any drought in check.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 449 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 34 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: Water levels continue to slowly discharge across the St. Johns River. The St. Johns River at Astor remains in minor flood stage and is expected to approach Action Stage (bank-full) next week. Additional points along the headwaters of the St. Johns River including Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney also have elevated water levels near Action Stage (bank-full). A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.90 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.11 feet below normal for this time of year.
