Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, March 4, 2026
...Foggy Conditions and Low Clouds to Linger Throughout Northeast Florida this AM... Another Pleasant but Warm Day Expected With Mostly Sunny Skies Prevailing... A Few Isolated Showers Possible Across South Florida this Afternoon... An Embedded Thunderstorm Cannot Be Ruled Out Along the Southeast Florida Coastline...Mostly Dry Conditions Overnight; A Lingering Shower Possible in Southeast Florida... Additional Fog and Low Clouds to Develop Tonight and Tomorrow Morning Throughout North and Central Florida... High Risk for Rip Currents for All East Coast Beaches; Moderate Risk for the Panhandle...
Updated at 9:43 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Iso. South FL |
Locally Interior North FL Statewide |
Iso. Southeast Florida |
Northeast & East-Central FL Big Bend Statewide |
East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Fog and low clouds throughout Northeast and East-Central Florida, some of which is locally dense, will be slow to lift and dissipate through the morning hours with the rising sun. Areas of sea fog along the Gulf-facing shores may linger into the afternoon. Otherwise, a near repeat of yesterday is expected as high pressure centered over the local Atlantic waters keeps mostly dry conditions in place. Easterly onshore flow is expected around this area of high pressure along the East Coast, with a few breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph expected this afternoon. This onshore flow will also help to keep some low-level moisture around throughout South Florida where an isolated shower or two is possible (15-30% chance of rain). These showers will likely be light and brief in nature, however an embedded thunderstorm and rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out along the Southeast Florida coastline. Relative humidity values are expected to remain well above critical thresholds this afternoon given low-level moisture, though pockets of drier conditions may develop across interior North Florida.
High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 80s throughout much of the state, with cooler conditions along the Northeast Florida coastline.
Any shower activity that does manage to develop this afternoon should quickly dissipate this evening or shift offshore towards the Atlantic waters. As onshore winds continue, a few brief showers may also continue near the Southeast coastline overnight (15-30% chance of rain). Low-level moisture and calm winds throughout North and Central Florida will lead to widespread fog developing by early Thursday morning, with instances of locally dense fog possible. Foggy conditions and low clouds can further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, middle 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to lower 70s in South Florida overnight.
Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds along the Florida East Coast will create a high risk for rip currents for nearly all beaches. Most Panhandle beaches can expect a moderate risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Onshore winds will push ocean swells of 3-4’ towards the Florida East Coast today, and through the Atlantic-facing Key beaches. Majority of the Gulf and West Coast can expect wave heights near 1’ with the Panhandle reaching upwards of 2-3’ later this afternoon.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions in two samples from Bay County. It was not observed along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (valid 2/27/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Foggy conditions and low clouds, some of which is locally dense, have developed throughout the state this morning, but should continue to lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours. Some areas of Sea Fog near the coastlines will linger longer. Low-level moisture and onshore winds will help to keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds across the state today, with the driest conditions across interior North Florida. Winds will generally remain light today near 5-10 mph, with stronger winds upwards of 15 mph along the immediate Florida East Coast. Wind gusts will be very similar reaching near 15-20 mph across the state with the strongest gusts along the eastern half of the Peninsula. Another round of patchy to widespread fog will be possible throughout North and Central Florida early Thursday morning, with instances of locally dense fog possible. Foggy conditions and low clouds will further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 59 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,778 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 475 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Afternoon showers along portions of the eastern coastline will be relatively light and brief, keeping rainfall totals minimal. Should any thunderstorm develop and move onshore, they may produce a quick 1”.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.28 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.23 feet below normal for this time of year.
