Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, March 16, 2026
...Active Weather Continues Today Across Florda...Tornado Watch in Effect for North Florida Until 2:00 PM ET; Additional Watches to be Issued as Conditions Warrant...Slight Risk (Level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather Across North and Central Florida...Thunderstorm Segments Capable of Producing Damaging Wind Gusts, Embedded Tornadoes, and Instances of Hail...Strong Thunderstorms Possible This Afternoon in South Florida...Windy Conditions Expected Outside of Thunderstorm Activity...Winter-Like Temperatures Return Tonight...Freezing Temperatures Expected Across North Florida, with Wind Chills in the Middle to Upper 20s...
Updated at 10:05 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Statewide Western Panhandle |
Western Florida Panhandle Central Florida
|
North & Central Florida South Florida |
Statewide |
Interior Florida Panhandle North Florida |
Southeast Florida |
|
Florida Panhandle, West Coast, Southeastern Coast East Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
An active weather day can once again be expected across the Sunshine State as a strong springtime cold front brings a multi-hazardous severe weather threat to much of North and Central Florida. While the squall-line became a bit disorganized over the Florida Panhandle earlier this morning, organized thunderstorm segments were still capable of producing embedded tornadoes and damaging wind gusts and prompted the issuance of several Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings. Tornado Watch #65 remains in effect for the eastern Florida Panhandle, the Florida Big Bend, and Suwannee River Valley through 2:00 PM ET; additional downstream watches will be issued as conditions warrant. Scattered strong to severe thunderstorms along and ahead of this cold front will advance eastward this morning and will look to regain organization with daytime heating. The line of showers and thunderstorms will reach the I-10/I-75 interchange around midday, Northeast Florida early this afternoon, and the I-4 corridor by the evening commute. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) maintains a Slight Risk (level 2 of 5) for Severe Weather across North and Central Florida, as well as the Treasure Coast, as organized thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing damaging wind gusts (50-70 mph), isolated embedded tornadoes, lightning, and instances of large hail (1” in diameter). While the frontal boundary will lose organization south of Lake Okeechobee, the combination of ample daytime heating and the daily sea breeze will promote a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. There is no organized risk of flash flooding; however, any heavier rainfall rates may lead to pockets of ponding water and flooding along portions of coastal and metro Southeast Florida.
Outside of thunderstorm activity, breezy to windy conditions will develop through much of North and Central Florida with wind gusts reaching upwards of 25-35 mph throughout portions of North and Central Florida. Afternoon high temperatures will remain in the 50s and 60s across the western Florida Panhandle, the 70s across the eastern Florida Panhandle, and the 80s through Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula. In the wake of this potent frontal system, northerly winds will quickly usher in a colder and drier airmass to Florida, with wintertime temperatures making their return. Low temperatures tonight will drop at or below freezing for interior North Florida locations, with temperatures feeling like the middle to upper 20s by Tuesday morning.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk of rip currents can be expected along all Florida beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy conditions today will allow for elevated wave heights of 3-5’ along many Florida Panhandle beaches this afternoon and evening, with isolated breakers in the surf zone reaching upwards of 6’ possible. Wave heights of 2-4’ can be expected along Florida East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton, Bay, Escambia, Gulf, and Franklin counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/13/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A pattern change is on the horizon, with a strong frontal system moving over the eastern U.S.; southerly winds of 10-15 mph can be expected today with gusts 15-20 mph possible. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds statewide, with increasing rain chances expanding through Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula by this afternoon (60-90% chance of rain). Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. While the widespread wildfire threat will remain generally low, we will maintain locally sensitive wildfire conditions today for locations experiencing the greatest drought and dry soil/vegetation. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 51 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,225 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 503 (-7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 37 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk of flash flooding today. Intense rainfall rates will accompany today’s shower and thunderstorm activity; however, the forward speed of this frontal system will limit the extent of flooding concerns. Rainfall totals of 1-3” will be possible within any North or Central Florida location that experiences multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity. Further south, the combination of ample moisture and the daily sea breeze may result in pockets of flooding and ponding water along the urban and metro Southeast Florida corridor later this evening.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
