Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, January 2, 2026
...Next Weather System Gradually Comes into Focus Today...Spotty Showers Possible Along the Florida Panhandle, Becoming Increasingly Numerous Tonight...Isolated Thunderstorms Possible...Warmer Temperatures Continue to Rebound Statewide...Areas of Fog and Low Clouds Possible from Florida Big Bend through Western Florida Peninsula...Locally Sensitive Wildfire Conditions Linger for Drought-Ridden Areas...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for Most Florida Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...High Risk Conditions Along Gulf County Beaches...
Updated at 9:42 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Western Florida Panhandle (Late) |
Statewide |
Flroida Big Bend & Western Florida Peninsula |
|
|
Gulf County Florida Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Our next weather system is gradually coming into focus over the Lower Mississippi Valley, with today serving as a transition period from recent cool, dry conditions toward warmer temperatures and increasing moisture. Westerly to southwesterly flow ahead of the approaching frontal system will begin drawing moisture back into the Sunshine State. This will be sufficient to introduce a low chance for a few spotty showers across the Florida Panhandle this afternoon (10-15% chance of rain). Elsewhere across the state, rain chances remain minimal. Skies will feature a mixture of sun and clouds across much of the central Florida Peninsula, while South Florida and the Florida Keys enjoy mostly sunny conditions. Afternoon high temperatures continue their rebound, reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s statewide.
Tonight, rain chances increase along and ahead of the cold front approaching the Florida Panhandle, setting the stage for a more active weather day on Saturday (40-70% chance of rain). A few thunderstorms cannot be ruled out late tonight into Saturday morning; however, the overall risk for organized severe weather is expected to hold off until daytime heating on Saturday. East of the rain and thunderstorm activity, areas of fog and low clouds may develop across the Florida Big Bend and portions of the western Florida Peninsula overnight. Low temperatures tonight remain mild, generally in the 50s and 60s statewide.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected for most Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches today. As winds becoming increasingly southwesterly this afternoon, periods of high risk conditions will be possible along Gulf County beaches. A low risk of rip currents has returned to the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards:
Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along all Florida beaches. A localized 3’ breaker in the surf zone cannot be ruled out along the Treasure Coast.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in Bay County. Red Tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast or Gulf Coast (valid 12/31/2025).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Moisture slowly increases throughout the day, courtesy of westerly to southwesterly winds developing well ahead of our next weather system. Relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds statewide. Rain chances will gradually return to the Florida Panhandle this afternoon and evening; however, will still drop into the lower to middle 40s across portions of the eastern Florida Peninsula. Locally sensitive wildfire conditions can be expected, especially for Florida locations that have experienced long-term drought and dry fuels/vegetation. Areas of fog and low clouds may develop once again tonight along the Florida Big Bend and western Florida Peninsula; further reductions in visibilities will be possible near any ongoing wildfires or burns. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 53 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 430 acres.
Drought (12/31/2025): Rainfall was once again held to a minimum and above normal temperatures were recorded across the Sunshine State despite a frontal system moving across the region. Short-term rainfall departures continue to run 0.5-2” below normal for this time of year nearly statewide, with localized pockets of 2-3” below normal along central portions of the Florida Panhandle. The lack of beneficial rainfall has contributed to further degrading the rainfall deficits in the 60-day period as well, with rainfall totals 2-4” inches below normal across Florida (away from the immediate I-4 corridor). Streamflows continue to run at very low levels across Florida Panhandle and interior North Florida rivers and waterways, now expanding into the Suwannee and Santa Fe River basins. Severe drought (level 2 of 4) has expanded along portions of the Florida Gulf Coast and into the Suwannee and Santa Fe River basins on the updated Drought Monitor, with moderate drought (level 1 of 4) now reaching the southern Space Coast. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists across interior portions of the eastern Florida Panhandle. Our next chance for rainfall returns this weekend; however, rainfall totals do not appear substantial enough to allow for category improvements.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 470 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 28 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.35 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
