Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, March 12, 2026
... Line of Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Racing Across Northeast Florida this Morning... Locally Damaging Winds and a Brief Tornado Possible... Activity to Weaken as it Sags Southward into Central Florida by the Afternoon Hours... Breezy Post-Frontal Winds Expected Across North and Central Florida; Gusts to 35 mph for the Panhandle... A Few Showers to Linger Throughout the Peninsula Tonight as the Front Dissipates... High Risk for Rip Currents for Panhandle Beaches; Moderate Risk for the East Coast... Surf Increases to 6-8' for East Coast Beaches Tonight...
Updated at 9:47 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Suwannee Valley Panhandle
|
Northeast FL |
Northeast FL |
Locally Statewide |
Iso. Northeast FL |
Locally South FL
|
Panhandle East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms is ongoing this morning across portions of the eastern Big Bend and Suwannee Valley with a few of these storms capable of producing damaging winds (50-60 mph), a brief tornado or two, and locally heavy downpours. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather is outlooked across the Big Bend and portions of Northeast Florida as this line of activity makes its way eastward through the morning hours (85 – near 100% chance of rain) with gradual weakening below severe levels expected. The line will begin to approach Central Florida later this afternoon and evening with widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms (45-75% chance of rain). In the wake of the front, breezy post-frontal conditions will develop with wind gusts upwards of 30 mph spreading throughout all North and Central Florida, with locally higher gusts upwards of 35 mph across the Panhandle. Drier air will also filter into the Panhandle in the wake of the front, with lower relative humidities (35-40%) encouraging sensitive wildfire conditions, though the overnight rainfall will keep the wildfire risk lower. Temperatures will struggle to climb out of the lower to middle 60s across the Panhandle this afternoon and upper 60s to lower 70s across the Big Bend. Highs in the upper 70s to lower 80s are expected for Northeast Florida with middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula. Feels-like temperatures may reach the lower 90s throughout portions of the interior Peninsula.
Tonight, a few lingering showers are expected across Central and South Florida as the front begins to stall and dissipate (25-55% chance of rain), with the greatest coverage of activity over the East-Central Peninsula. Winds will begin to subside statewide through the evening, though breezy winds with gusts upwards of 25 mph will still linger along the I-95 corridor.
Low temperatures will cool off into the lower to middle 40s across the Panhandle and Big Bend tonight, with upper 40s to lower 50s throughout Northeast Florida. Temperatures may feel like the upper 30s across portions of the Panhandle north of the I-10 corridor near sunrise Friday. Lows in the 60s to lower 70s can be expected along and south of the I-4 corridor.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds and increasing surf will bring a return of a high risk for rip currents to all Panhandle beaches today. A moderate risk persists for the entire Florida East Coast. West Coast beaches can still expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights will begin to increase this afternoon for all Panhandle beaches with breezy post-frontal winds building surf. Waves of 2-4’ are expected while surf remains near 1-2’ for all West Coast beaches. East Coast beaches can expect surf of 2-3’ through this afternoon. Tonight, surf will remain elevated for all Panhandle beaches with waves of 2-4’. A significant increase is also expected for East Coast beaches, with waves of 6-8’ expected by daybreak Friday. A High Surf Advisory may be issued if conditions warrant.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Flagler County and low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/6/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Areas of fog and low clouds will slowly dissipate across interior South Florida this morning. Mostly dry conditions will return to the Panhandle and Big Bend later this afternoon in the wake of our line of showers and thunderstorms. Relative humidities will dip to lower values (35-40%), which will encourage sensitive wildfire conditions given the ongoing drought, though the morning rainfall will help to keep vegetation mostly saturated. Breezy winds will develop across much of the state this afternoon in the wake of our front, with gusts upwards of 30 mph across North and Central Florida and locally higher gusts upwards of 35 mph across the Panhandle. Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 63 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 7,883 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 505 (+8) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 36 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will trek eastward across the Big Bend, Northeast Florida, and Central Florida through today. Rainfall totals will remain on the lighter side, generally below 0.5”. However localized amounts upwards of 1-2” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.22 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.27 feet below normal for this time of year.
