Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, April 6, 2026
...Start of a Wet Stretch of Weather Expected to Commence Today Across the State... Stalled Cold Front to Help Focus Shower and Thunderstorm Activity Across the Peninsula... Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding Outlooked Along the I-95 Corridor for Urban Flooding Concerns... Rain Chances Last Through the Night From Northeast to South Florida... Breezy Winds Begin to Develop Across North and Central Florida Today... Temperatures to Remain Cool Across North Florida with Abundant Cloud Cover... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 8:52 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Interior South FL Central & South FL |
Iso. Interior Central & South FL |
Statewide |
|
Locally I-95 Corridor |
East Coast Panhandle & Southeast FL West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The start to what will be a wet and rainy week is expected to commence today as the trailing end of a cold front slows and stalls across the Peninsula. A band of light rain showers has blossomed across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning and will continue to slowly trek eastward through the day (50-75% chance of rain). Meanwhile throughout the Peninsula, the stalled cold front along with the afternoon sea breezes will promote and enhance scattered to numerous shower and embedded thunderstorm activity across Central and South Florida (55-85% chance of rain). Some of these storms could become locally strong and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and small hail. Additionally, much of this activity will be slow moving and may lead to localized flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the Florida East Coast today where localized rainfall totals could exceed 2-4” of rain in areas that receive multiple rounds of heavy downpours. Winds will become breezy throughout North Florida this afternoon, with gusts upwards of 20-25 mph expected.
High temperatures will climb into the 80s throughout Central and South Florida today, with thick cloud cover and light rainfall keeping temperatures cooler in the middle 60s to lower 70s along the I-10 corridor.
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will continue through the overnight hours across much of the Peninsula as an upper-level disturbance traverses the state helping to enhance activity. Some of this activity could remain locally heavy, especially along the I-95 corridor, and instances of localized flooding cannot be ruled out (60-85% chance of rain). Mostly dry conditions will prevail across the western Panhandle with an isolated shower possible throughout the eastern Panhandle and Big Bend (15-30% chance of rain).
Low temperatures will cool off into the 50s throughout North Florida tonight, with middle 60s to lower 70s expected across Central and South Florida.
Rip Currents: A fresh surge of onshore winds and increasing surf will bring a high risk for rip currents to all East Coast beaches today. A return to a moderate risk is expected for Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches, with a low risk remaining along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Marine conditions will begin to worsen today as a large ocean swell gets set to develop along the East Coast this week. Surf will increase to 4-6’ for all Northeast Florida beaches, with waves near 2-4’ along the rest of the East Coast. Waves of 1-3’ are expected along the Panhandle coastline and near 1’ along the West Coast.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe County (valid 4/3/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida today.
Fire Weather: Plentiful cloud cover and scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will keep relative humidities well above critical thresholds throughout the state today. Still, ongoing drought will keep sensitive wildfire conditions in place with plentiful dry fuels still available for burning. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds which may lead to new ignitions or erratic spread. Winds will shift out of the northeast today across North Florida in the wake of our front where gusts upwards of 20-25 mph will develop this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 87 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 6,627 acres.
Drought (4/2/26): Over the past week, mostly dry conditions were observed throughout much of the state which has resulted in very little improvements on the latest Drought Monitor update. In fact, outside of immediate coastal Southeast Florida where a cold front brought widespread rainfall of 1-3” this past weekend (3/28-3/29), there was no beneficial rainfall to be found. The last remaining area of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) across the western Panhandle has been upgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) due to recent dryness and worsening soil moisture levels. One of the biggest changes this week was additional expansion of the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend, Suwannee River Valley, and eastern Panhandle. Now, additional areas of Columbia, Baker, Union, Lafayette, Wakulla, and Jackson counties are under this level 4 of 4 drought. Over the past 6 months (October 1 – March 31), Tallahassee has seen record dryness with a total rainfall departure over that time reaching 13.51 inches below normal. Areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have remained throughout the rest of Northeast Florida and North-Central Florida, including a new area along the coast of Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties. Jacksonville has also seen record dryness over the past 6 months, with the rainfall deficit of 9.98 inches below normal in that time. The area of moderate to severe drought along the I-4 corridor continues to shrink as well as the area rainfall deficits continue to worsen. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) also persists across much of South Florida, outside of the immediate Southeast coastline where rainfall has brought some drought relief. Throughout the state, streamflows remain significantly low and soil moisture levels deep into the ground have also worsened with water management districts statewide remaining under some water shortage advisory or warning. Looking ahead, a widespread drenching rainfall is not expected over the next week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though afternoon spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible each day. Any areas that see the heaviest activity could see a quick 1-3” of rain, though will not be enough to put much of a dent in the drought. There remains some uncertainty regarding a possible Gulf low-pressure system developing next Tuesday, which could bring some beneficial rains to the state. Trends in that system will continue to be monitored.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 497 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 39 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along much of the Florida East Coast today where scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will persist through the overnight hours. Activity is expected to develop along the sea breezes this afternoon before becoming enhanced this evening and overnight as an upper-level disturbance traverses the state. Some of this slow-moving activity could become locally heavy and capable of producing a quick 2-4” of rainfall in localized areas. Any areas that do receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours could experience ponding of water and flooding, especially in urban and poor drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.00 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.20 feet below normal for this time of year.
