Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, February 28, 2026
... Areas of Patchy Dense Fog Across the Panhandle to Lift by Mid-Morning... Scattered Showers and Embedded Thunderstorms Expected Throughout the Peninsula Today... A Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather Outlooked for East-Central and Southeast Florida... Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning, and Heavy Downpours all Possible... Sunny and Dry Conditions Prevail Across North Florida... Sensitive to Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Persist Given Ongoing Drought... Dense Smoke Likely to Pool Near Ongoing Wildfires or Burns; Especially Impactful for the Large Wildfire (National Wildfire) Burning Within Big Cypress...Periods of Reduced Visibility Likely Along Alligator Alley in Collier and Broward Counties... Areas of Patchy Fog Development Possible Across North and Interior South Florida Tonight... High Risk of Rip Currents for Florida Panhandle Beaches; Moderate Risk for East Coast
Updated at 9:08 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Central & South FL Peninsula |
|
East-Central & Southeast FL |
Locally Interior South FL Statewide |
Iso. Central & South FL |
Locally North & Interior South FL Central Florida |
Panhandle East Coast West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across the Panhandle and Big Bend this morning and will be slow to lift and dissipate by mid-morning. Otherwise, a sunny and dry day is expected across much of North Florida as a slow-moving frontal boundary remains draped through Central Florida. A few isolated to widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop this afternoon throughout the Peninsula along this front (35-60% chance of rain), some of which could be locally strong to severe. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather has been outlooked for East-Central and Southeast Florida this afternoon for a few thunderstorms capable of producing gusty winds (40-60 mph), small hail, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. Instances of nuisance flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out in urban and low-lying areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours. Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds this afternoon throughout the state, though sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will persist given the ongoing drought. Winds will remain generally light this afternoon, though gusty/erratic winds and lightning accompanied with thunderstorms could pose a threat for additional wildfire ignition/spread, especially throughout Central and South Florida.
High temperatures will reach the lower to middle 70s across the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, middle 70s to lower 80s throughout Central Florida, and lower to middle 80s in South Florida. Portions of Northeast Florida will remain cooler today with onshore flow, keeping temperatures in the middle to upper 60s.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will begin to push offshore by this evening across Central and South Florida, though some activity may linger before midnight (25-50% chance of rain). Another night of fog and low clouds is expected throughout portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend, as well as locally throughout interior South Florida. Some of this fog could be locally dense and Dense Fog Advisories may be issued as conditions warrant. Where dense fog and ongoing wildfire smoke mix, visibilities may be significantly reduced. Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to lower 50s throughout North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s in Central Florida, and middle to upper 60s in South Florida.
Rip Currents: A high risk of rip currents is expected for most Florida Panhandle beaches with breezy onshore winds this afternoon. A moderate risk is expected for East Coast beaches, meanwhile a low risk remains for all West Coast and Southeast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calmer seas will return to the Panhandle today with surfing diminishing back down to 1-2’. Waves of 1-3’ are expected for all other West Coast and East Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions in two samples from Bay County. It was not observed along the Florida East Coast or Southwest Florida (valid 2/27/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions are expected throughout much of the state where ongoing long-term drought persists. However, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop across much of Central and South Florida today which will bring some beneficial wetting rainfall. Moist southerly flow will keep relative humidities well above critical thresholds throughout much of the state, though pockets of lower relative humidities cannot be ruled out, including across interior South Florida in the vicinity of the National Wildfire in the Big Cypress National Preserve. Areas of dense wildfire smoke will pool near and around active wildfires with light south winds this afternoon which may lead to reduced visibilities along Alligator Alley (I-75) in Collier and Broward counties. Lightning and gusty/erratic winds may accompany any stronger thunderstorm activity which can lead to additional wildfire ignition or spread. Tonight, areas of fog and low clouds may develop across portions of the Panhandle, Big Bend, and interior South Florida; where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 83 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,280 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 501 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 36 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms may bring a few locally heavy downpours to portions of Central and South Florida through tonight. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 1”, though localized totals upwards of 3” cannot be ruled out in areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
Riverine Flooding: The Shoal River near Crestview and Bruce Creek near Redbay across the Panhandle have reached, or are forecast to reach, Action State (bank-full) this weekend due to recent rainfall. There are no other riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.25 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.28 feet below normal for this time of year.
