Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, December 14, 2025
...Showers Associated With Approaching Cold Front Along Panhandle this Morning...Dry Conditions Expected for Much of North and Central Florida...Ongoing Shower and Embedded Thunderstorm Activity to Continue for South Florida Today - May Bring Nuisance Ponding of Water to Urban Areas...Breezy Conditions Will Develop Behind Cold Front...Wind Advisories Tonight for First and Space Coasts...Arctic Cold Air Moves Into North Florida Tonight...Freeze Warnings Across Coastal Panhandle and Interior Northeast Florida - Widespread Freeze Conditions...Elevated Winds to Create Wind Chills in Teens and 20s Monday Morning...Dangerous Ocean Swells and Rip Currents Along the East Coast Tonight...
Updated at 9:55 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| South Florida |
North Florida |
Interior North Florida Coastal North Florida Iso. Nature Coast |
Interior North Florida North Florida North-Central FL & Nature Coast |
Bay County & Southeast FL Panhandle, East Coast & West-Central FL Nature Coast
|
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Patchy fog this morning will gradually lift and dissipate throughout the morning hours. Isolated showers this morning are ongoing along the Panhandle as a cold front moves through the region this morning. This cold front will push through the state today and may bring a few brief sprinkles or light shower or two, but overall conditions are expected to remain dry as the front passes through (20-30% chance of rain). Further south, an upper-level disturbance to the south of the Peninsula will continue to bring light to moderate rainfall with a few embedded thunderstorms. The frontal boundary to the north may help to enhance shower and thunderstorm activity, but once the front reach the I-4 corridor this afternoon and evening it will start to usher drier air into South Florida and push shower and thunderstorm activity offshore (20-60% chance of rain). Organized flash flooding is not expected; however, any locally heavy rounds of shower or thunderstorm activity could lead to some nuisance ponding of water or localized flash flooding for urban and low-lying areas of the South Florida metro.
Behind the cold front, breezy and gusty winds will follow. Wind gusts of 15-20 mph will develop by the late afternoon hours across North Florida, with stronger wind gusts of 25-30 mph closer towards the coastlines. Eventually, breezy winds will extend into the Peninsula with the strongest gusts remaining along the coastlines overnight. By the overnight hours, wind gusts of 15-25 mph can be expected statewide with stronger wind gusts of 30-40 mph along the coastlines. Wind Advisories will go into effect this evening and overnight for much of the First and Space Coasts for winds of 20-25 mph and wind gusts upwards of 40 mph. Dry conditions can be expected overnight as high pressure extends over the state behind the passing cold front.
The warmest part of the day across the Panhandle and western Big Bend will be near midday and the early afternoon hours reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s as the colder air moves in quickly behind the front. The rest of the state will see the warmest temperatures in the afternoon hours before the colder air races in near and after sunset. The rest of North Florida will see high temperatures in the 60s, Central Florida will see high temperatures in the 70s and South Florida will see high temperatures in the upper 70s to near 80-degrees.
Widespread freeze conditions will be possible across North Florida tonight and into Monday morning as much colder air arrives and breezy conditions continue overnight. Low temperatures across North Florida will fall into the middle to upper 20s and lower 30s closer towards the coast. Freeze Warnings will go into effect overnight and through the early morning hours on Monday across the Emerald Coast as temperatures as low as 27-degrees are possible, and along interior Northeast Florida for temperatures as low as 23-32-degrees. Cold Weather Advisories (formerly Wind Chill Advisories) will also go into effect tonight due to cold temperatures and ongoing breezy winds across North Florida. Wind chills or feels-like temperatures will fall into the teens and 20s by early Monday morning. Elevated winds should keep frost formation minimal; however, instances of patchy frost in shaded areas cannot be ruled out. Low temperatures across Central Florida will fall into the upper 30s to lower 50s and low temperatures across South Florida will fall into the middle 50s to middle 60s. Portions of North-Central Florida and the Naure Coast will see feels-like temperatures in the middle to upper 30s by sunrise on Monday morning.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected nearly statewide with breezy northerly to northwesterly winds and increasing ocean swells. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells of 1-3’ can be expected across the state through the early afternoon hours before larger ocean swells increase to 3-6’ this evening. Overnight ocean swells will peak near 4-6’ along the Panhandle and Gulf Coast and 5-10’ along the Florida East Coast. High Surf Advisories will go into effect tonight along most of the East Coast through Monday evening for large swells and dangerous beach conditions.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in both Bay and Gulf counties and background to low concentrations in Franklin County. Red Tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast (valid 12/12).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: A cold front will move across the state today and tonight bringing much cooler air behind it. Ahead of this front some showers will be possible along the Panhandle and Big Bend, but mostly dry conditions will persist across the state. Gusty winds will develop behind the cold front as cooler air rushes in, leading to wind gusts of 15-20 mph and stronger wind gusts closer towards the coasts upwards of 25-30 mph. Gusty winds will then extend into the Peninsula overnight. Wind Advisories have been issued along coastal portions of the First and Space Coast for stronger wind gusts upwards of 40 mph possible. Locally sensitive wildfire conditions remain possible throughout North and West-Central Florida due to ongoing drought conditions and drier conditions returning over the last few days. A disturbance south of the Peninsula and the approaching front will lead to a better chance for scattered shower activity and embedded thunderstorms across South Florida throughout the day. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 11 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 226 acres.
Drought (12/11): Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches was observed across the Panhandle and North Florida over the past week as numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area the past weekend and early this week. As a result, this week’s Drought Monitor outlook features some reduction in drought categories across much of North Florida. Last week’s Exceptional Drought has been downgraded to an Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) across portions of Jackson, Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, and Madison counties. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place cross much of the I-10 corridor from Baker County to Holmes County in North Florida, with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) across the rest of the western Panhandle and southward across the southern portions of the Suwannee River Valley. Some slight reduction in the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was seen over coastal West-Central Florida of northern Hillsborough and Pinellas County where some localized rainfall totals of 4-6 inches was observed in the past week. However, just south of that, expansion of the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was added over southern Sarasota and coastal Charlotte Counties where rainfall largely missed. A general couple of tenths of rain were observed over South Florida in the past week, not enough to curb the developing drought. Expansion of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was added to this week’s outlook across much of interior South Florida, with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions expanding to the Southeast Florida coastline. Although shorter-term rainfall departures are above normal due to the recent rainfall, portions of North Florida are still under a long-term rainfall deficit (60-90 days) and drought conditions will persist. Additionally, rainfall chances will remain very low over the next week, or longer, which may lead to a resumption of deteriorating drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 406 (+4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 12 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to South Florida today, along with an approaching frontal boundary from the north. Instances of locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out throughout the day, especially within any thunderstorm activity or repeated rounds of shower activity. Rainfall totals of 0.5” are forecast, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” possible. Nuisance and localized ponding of water or flash flooding cannot be ruled out over urban corridors and low-lying areas along the South Florida metro.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.60 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.14 feet below normal for this time of year.
