Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Breezy to windy conditions and increasing choppy surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents to all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A moderate risk for rip currents is also expected along the Sun Coast where surf will begin to increase later this afternoon. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Very dangerous beach and marine conditions will begin to develop today along the East Coast as strong northeasterly winds and active weather build a large ocean swell offshore. Surf will increase from 4-6’ this morning to 8-10’ by this evening across all Northeast Florida and Space Coast beaches. Waves will remain near 3-5’ for Treasure Coast beaches through this afternoon and around 1-3’ for all Southeast Florida and Florida Keys beaches. Elevated surf is also expected across all Panhandle and West Coast beaches today, with waves reaching 2-4’. Surf will surge southward along the East Coast tonight, with waves increasing to 10-13’ for all First, Space, and Treasure Coast beaches. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Northeast and East-Central Florida starting this afternoon and for the Treasure Coast beginning tonight.

 

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe County (valid 4/3/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: Strong northeasterly onshore winds along the East Coast may lead to instances of minor beach erosion as surf increases later this afternoon.

 

Fire Weather: Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected throughout the Peninsula today as an upper-level disturbance and stalled frontal boundary help to focus abundant moisture throughout the Peninsula. Relative humidities will remain well above critical thresholds here, however a surge of fresh northeasterly winds is expected later this afternoon across North and Central Florida. Winds will gust between 25-35 mph for most locations, however coastal locations of Northeast and East-Central Florida may gust upwards of 35-45 mph and a Wind Advisory is in effect through tonight. These windy conditions, along with thunderstorm activity, may lead to erratic wildfire spread in any active wildfire areas. Throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend, a ribbon of drier air is expected to filter into the area where relative humidities will dip well below critical thresholds (15-25 RH values). Paired with the breezy conditions, elevated to locally critical wildfire conditions are expected Red Flag Warnings are in effect for portions of the Panhandle and Big Bend for this wildfire risk this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 71 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,914 acres.

 

Drought (4/2/26): Over the past week, mostly dry conditions were observed throughout much of the state which has resulted in very little improvements on the latest Drought Monitor update. In fact, outside of immediate coastal Southeast Florida where a cold front brought widespread rainfall of 1-3” this past weekend (3/28-3/29), there was no beneficial rainfall to be found. The last remaining area of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) across the western Panhandle has been upgraded to a severe drought (level 2 of 4) due to recent dryness and worsening soil moisture levels. One of the biggest changes this week was additional expansion of the exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) across the Big Bend, Suwannee River Valley, and eastern Panhandle. Now, additional areas of Columbia, Baker, Union, Lafayette, Wakulla, and Jackson counties are under this level 4 of 4 drought. Over the past 6 months (October 1 – March 31), Tallahassee has seen record dryness with a total rainfall departure over that time reaching 13.51 inches below normal. Areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have remained throughout the rest of Northeast Florida and North-Central Florida, including a new area along the coast of Citrus, Hernando, and Pasco counties. Jacksonville has also seen record dryness over the past 6 months, with the rainfall deficit of 9.98 inches below normal in that time. The area of moderate to severe drought along the I-4 corridor continues to shrink as well as the area rainfall deficits continue to worsen. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) also persists across much of South Florida, outside of the immediate Southeast coastline where rainfall has brought some drought relief. Throughout the state, streamflows remain significantly low and soil moisture levels deep into the ground have also worsened with water management districts statewide remaining under some water shortage advisory or warning. Looking ahead, a widespread drenching rainfall is not expected over the next week. Mostly dry conditions will prevail, though afternoon spotty showers and embedded thunderstorms will be possible each day. Any areas that see the heaviest activity could see a quick 1-3” of rain, though will not be enough to put much of a dent in the drought. There remains some uncertainty regarding a possible Gulf low-pressure system developing next Tuesday, which could bring some beneficial rains to the state. Trends in that system will continue to be monitored.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 491 (-6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 36 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has outlooked a Slight Risk (level 2 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Florida East Coast from Volusia County to Miami-Dade County for a heightened risk of flash flooding. Recent heavy rainfall has saturated the soil and additional rounds of heavy downpours today may lead to instances of flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and poor drainage locations. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding is outlooked across much of the rest of the central and southern Peninsula. A Flood Watch is also in effect along the East Coast from Volusia to Miami-Dade for this flood risk. Rainfall totals across East-Central and Southeast Florida will generally add up to 2-4 inches for most locations, however locally greater amounts upwards of 5-7 inches cannot be ruled out.

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.00 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.18 feet below normal for this time of year.