Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, February 26, 2026
...Increasing Rain Chances for the Florida Panhandle (50-80%)...Breezy Southerly Winds Build Ahead of Next Frontal System...Slight Chance of Rain This Afternoon Across Southeast Florida (20-25%)...Primary Headline Will be Sensitive to Elevated Wildfire Conditions Across the Florida Peninsula...Red Flag Warnings in Effect for East-Central Florida...Dense Smoke Likely to Pool Near Ongoing Wildfires or Burns; Especially Impactful for the Large Wildfire (National Wildfire) Burning Within Big Cypress...Periods of Reduced Visibility Likely Along Alligator Alley in Collier and Broward Counties...High Risk of Rip Currents for Florida and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 10:19 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
|
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Locally Statewide |
Locally West Florida East Florida |
Panhandle & East Coast Northeast Florida West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Following our transition day on Wednesday, isolated pockets of patchy fog and low clouds were present this morning as low-level moisture gradually returns to the Sunshine State. Spotty showers this morning along the Florida Panhandle will set the stage for increasing rain chances through the daytime hours (40-60%), becoming increasingly widespread this evening and overnight (50-80% chance of rain) as a frontal boundary slowly sags southward over the embedded thunderstorm activity will trend into Friday across the interior Florida Panhandle. Southerly winds build ahead of our next frontal system, with wind gusts reaching 20-25 mph across North Florida and localized gusts upwards of 30 mph possible along the immediate coastline. A mixture of sunshine and clouds can be expected throughout the Florida Peninsula, with a slight chance for a few showers this afternoon across Southeast Florida (20-25%). Afternoon temperatures continue to rebound after our cold start to the week, with highs reaching the lower to middle 70s across North Florida and the middle to upper 70s throughout the Florida Peninsula; a few locations within the interior southern Florida Peninsula look to eclipse the 80-degree mark.
The primary weather headline today will continue to be sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions across the Florida Peninsula, with Red Flag Warnings going into effect this afternoon across East-Central Florida until 6:00 PM EST. While low-level moisture returns, long-term drought and extremely dry fuels/vegetation will continue to promote wildfire ignition and spread. Areas of dense smoke will likely pool near ongoing wildfires or burns; this is especially impactful near the large wildfire (National Wildfire) burning within Big Cypress National Preserve where periods of reduced visibility are likely along Alligator Alley (I-75) in Collier and Broward Counties. Tonight, areas of fog and low clouds will develop ahead of the rain activity to the north. Where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions. Low temperatures remain mild statewide in the upper 50s to middle 60s.
Rip Currents: Breezy pre-frontal winds today will yield a high risk of rip currents for Florida Panhandle, East-Central Florida, and Southeast Florida beaches today. A moderate risk of rip currents continues along all Northeast Florida beaches, with low risk conditions residing along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Increasing surf can be expected to arrive along the Florida Panhandle today, with breakers in the surf zone reaching 3-4’ this afternoon. Elsewhere, wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions offshore of Miami-Dade and Monroe Counties, with very low concentrations sampled along Bay County (valid2/20/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Elevated to sensitive wildfire conditions will continue to run as our primary weather headline today, with Red Flad Warnings to go into effect across East-Central Florida this afternoon. Breezy conditions across North and Central Florida can be expected today, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph likely this afternoon; localized higher wind gusts reaching 30 mph will be possible along the immediate Florida Panhandle coastline. While low-level moisture will gradually return to the Sunshine State, another afternoon featuring relative humidity values at or below critical thresholds (35-45%) will continue to promote wildfire ignition and spread. Lighter wind regimes later in the day and south of the I-4 corridor will allow for areas of dense smoke to pool near ongoing wildfires or burns. This is especially impactful near the large wildfire (National Wildfire) burning within Big Cyress National Preserve where periods of reduced visibility are likely along Alligator Alley (I-75) in Collier and Broward Counties. Tonight, areas of fog and low clouds will develop ahead of the rain activity; where fog and smoke combine, visibility reductions may become significant, creating hazardous nighttime driving conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 82 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,062 acres.
Drought (2/26/26): Showers bypassed many areas of the Southeast United States, leading to slowly worsening drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update. The recent uptick in wildfires across Northeast Florida and the Florida Peninsula are a result of increasing both near-term and long-term rainfall deficits throughout the Sunshine State, and are truly indicative of how dry Florida’s soil and fuel/vegetation is nearly statewide. 90-day rainfall totals have now trended 5-7” below normal for this time of year across North and Southeast Florida, with rainfall deficits of 2-4” below normal noted elsewhere across the state. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) areas have expanded across North Florida and into the Florida Panhandle, now stretching from coastal Walton County to Volusia County; extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists south of the I-4 corridor across the southern Florida Peninsula. Other changes to note include the upgrade of all remaining areas of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) conditions into moderate drought (level 1 of 4), this now brings100% of land area across Florida within a category of drought. Rainfall forecast over the next 7 days will certainly be beneficial for North and Central Florida; however, any observed rainfall has quite an uphill battle against the long-term drought. Unfortunately, rainfall totals remain sparse to widely isolated throughout the southern Florida Peninsula as frontal systems will not be able to remain intact as it advances through the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 493 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.27 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.27 feet below normal for this time of year.
