Current Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Jerry: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Jerry is located about 355 miles ESE of the Northern Leeward Islands and is moving west northwestward at 20 mph. A turn toward the northwest is expected later today, followed by a slightly slower northward motion on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track, the center of the system is expected to be near or to the north of the northern Leeward Islands later today or tonight. Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Jerry could become a hurricane by Friday or Saturday. This system poses no threat to Florida but could bring long-period swells to the East Coast next week.

North Atlantic: A strong non-tropical low pressure located several hundred miles to the west-northwest of the Azores is producing limited shower activity near its center. Some subtropical or tropical development of this system is possible over the next day or two before it moves over an unfavorable environment. This system poses no threat to Florida.

  *Formation chances through 48 hours… low…10%.

  *Formation chances through 7 days…low…10%.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: Large long-period ocean swells and breezy easterly to winds will continue to create a high risk for rip currents along all East Coast beaches. Panhandle beaches will see a return to a low to moderate risk. West Coast beaches can expect a low risk to continue. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Wave heights will remain modest today along the East Coast with surf of 3-5’. Further offshore from the First Coast, breaking waves could reach upwards of 6’ this afternoon. Panhandle and West Coast beaches can expect to see wave heights near 1-2’. High Surf Advisories will go into effect along coastal Northeast Florida later this afternoon through Sunday morning as a developing low-pressure system off the coast of Florida brings a return of dangerous surf.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Hillsborough County in Southwest Florida. It was also observed at very low to medium concentrations in Gulf County in Northwest Florida. It was not observed in any samples along the Florida East Coast (10/3).

Coastal Flooding: Coastal Flood Advisories are in effect along the entire Florida East Coast today. Elevated surf, onshore winds, and the Full Moon will lead to instances of minor coastal flooding near and during times of high tide for the entire East Coast through this week and weekend. Water levels are forecast to rise 1-2’ above normally dry ground through the few days. Beach and coastal erosion will be possible with several days of pounding wave action, especially along vulnerable beaches. Coastal Flood Statements are also in effect through Sunday evening for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys for instances of minor saltwater flooding near and during times of high tide in the wake of the Full Moon. With a non-tropical coastal low-pressure system developing off the Florida East Coast late week and into the weekend, additional breezy onshore winds and large ocean swells will develop along the Northeast Florida coastline. Coastal Flood Watches have been issued for the First, Space, and Treasure Coasts beginning early Friday morning through late Saturday where significant coastal flooding is possible.

Fire Weather: Drier conditions are expected for much of the Florida Panhandle today, though relative humidity values will remain above critical thresholds during the afternoon. With ongoing drought conditions across the Florida Panhandle, locally sensitive wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out with any new fires started or ones ongoing. Tropical moisture will spread back across much of the Peninsula today with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms, keeping the overall wildfire threat very low. Thunderstorms may be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. Winds will begin to increase again this afternoon along the eastern coastline with wind gusts of 15-25 mph will continue throughout the Peninsula expected, increasing to 25-30 mph along the Northeast Florida coastline tonight. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 10 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 30 acres.  

Drought: Persistent onshore winds have brought daily rainfall chances to the Florida East Coast over the past two weeks. As such, soil conditions remain moist and any lingering drought conditions continue to be removed across Southeast Florida. The moderate drought along coastal Martin and Palm Beach counties has been replaced with abnormally dry conditions due to longer-term drought from earlier this summer. Otherwise, no significant changes were made to the ongoing drought across the rest of the Peninsula and North Florida. Monthly rainfall departures remain 2-4” below normal across the entire Panhandle, Suwannee Valley, and Northeast Florida. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains outlooked across northern Jefferson, Leon, Gadsden, Jackson, and Holmes counties with some slight expansion eastward into Suwannee and Columbia counties. A Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) also remains across the rest of the Panhandle and Big Bend region. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions are outlooked along the I-75 corridor and Nature Coast in West-Central Florida where monthly rainfall departures have neared 5” in some locations. Given the mostly dry forecast the next week and drying of vegetation, an introduction to moderate drought is possible in next week’s drought monitor outlook in this region.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 344 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 18 Florida counties in the Florida Panhandle (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Suwannee, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: Persistent onshore winds and ample tropical moisture will bring repeated rounds of showers and thunderstorms across the Florida East Coast this afternoon. A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding has been outlooked along the entire I-95 corridor for locally heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations. Moist antecedent soil conditions across portions of the East Coast may result in an earlier onset to flooding in some locations. Rainfall totals of 1-2” are expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4” in any areas that receive prolonged or multiple rounds of heavy thunderstorms.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels remain at moderate flood stage due to recent coastal action (waves, tides and onshore winds) and these conditions are expected to continue throughout the week and into the weekend as a developing low-pressure system amplifies the onshore winds. The St. Johns River above Lake Harney and St. Johns River near Deland have risen into Action Stage (bank-full) given the recent rainfall on top of back-up water levels within the St. Johns Basin. As the St. Johns struggles to discharge given persistent onshore winds, increases in water levels are likely, but river flooding is not anticipated at this time. There are no other riverine concerns across the state at this time. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.63 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.37 feet below normal for this time of year.