Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, March 14, 2026
...Areas of Patchy Fog to Slowly Lift Through the Morning... Mostly Sunny and Dry Conditions Prevail Across North Florida... Stalled Frontal Boundary to Bring Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms to Central and South Florida this Afternoon... A Few Storms Could be Locally Strong to Severe... Gusty Winds and Heavy Downpours the Greatest Hazard...Highs in the 70s and 80s Statewide... Showers Linger Throughout the Peninsula Overnight... Fog and Low Clouds May Develop Across the Interior Peninsula Tonight... Lows Mainly in the 60s Across the State... High Risk for Rip Currents for the East Coast with Surf of 3-5'; Moderate Risk for the Panhandle...
Updated at 9:07 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South & Central FL
|
|
Iso. South FL |
Locally Statewide |
Iso. South FL |
Locally Northeast FL Interior Peninsula
|
East Coast Panhandle & Southeast FL West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy dense fog have developed across interior South and Northeast Florida this morning and will be slow to lift and dissipate with sunrise. Otherwise, another mostly sunny and dry day will prevail across North Florida where low relative humidities (35-40%) will continue to promote sensitive wildfire conditions. Across Central and South Florida, a stalled frontal boundary will allow plenty of moisture to pool across the Peninsula for scattered shower and thunderstorm development this afternoon, mainly along and south of the I-4 corridor (50-65% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for severe weather or flash flooding, some of these slow-moving thunderstorms could become locally strong to severe and produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours. Winds will remain generally light today outside of thunderstorm activity, however a few breezy gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are possible along the I-95 corridor.
High temperatures will warm into the lower to middle 80s throughout interior portions of the state today with coastal locations remaining in the 70s.
The frontal boundary draped across the Peninsula will slowly drift northward tonight, allowing for moisture and some isolated showers and thunderstorms to lift northward into Northeast Florida (15-25% chance of rain). Coastal showers will linger throughout the night across Southeast Florida and the Keys (40-55% chance of rain). Low-level moisture and calm winds will promote additional development of fog and low clouds tonight, mainly throughout the interior Peninsula, some of which could become locally dense.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida and middle to upper 60s throughout Central and South Florida. The Southeast Florida metro region and Keys will remain in the 70s.
Rip Currents: Breezy winds and elevated surf will keep a high risk for rip currents for most East Coast beaches today, with a local moderate risk for Southeast Florida beaches. A moderate risk is also expected for most Panhandle beaches. West Coast beaches can still expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will continue to decline today along the East Coast, with wave heights returning back to 3-5’ this afternoon and overnight. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will see surf near 1’ today.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton, Bay, Escambia, Gulf, and Franklin counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/13/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A mostly dry day is on tap across North Florida where relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (35-40% RH values). Given the ongoing drought, this will continue to promote sensitive wildfire conditions, especially in any areas that received little rainfall from our frontal passage two days ago (3/12). Across South and Central Florida, showers and storms will develop this afternoon along the sea breeze boundaries. A few wind gusts upwards of 20-25 mph are expected outside of thunderstorm activity today throughout the Peninsula, mainly along the I-95 corridor. Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. Areas of low clouds and fog may develop tonight across the interior Peninsula, which can further reduce visibilities in the vicinity of ongoing and active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 46 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,247 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 510 (-1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 37 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon across South and Central Florida sparked by sea breezes and daytime warming. Some of these showers and storms may bring locally heavy downpours capable of producing a quick 1-3” of rain, and areas of urban flooding and ponding of water cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.16 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
