Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Numerous beaches across the state can expect a moderate risk for rip currents, with a locally high risk along the First Coast. West Coast beaches can still expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

 

Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ can be expected statewide. Locally higher surf with waves upwards of 4’ are possible for the Florida Keys.

 

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Walton and Bay counties in Northwest Florida. It was also observed at background concentrations from Flagler County and low concentrations in Brevard County along the East Coast. It was not observed in Southwest Florida (valid 3/6/26).

 

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.

 

Fire Weather: Foggy conditions this morning throughout the state this morning will linger as it slowly mixes out and lifts. Dry conditions continue across the Sunshine State today, leading to relative humidity values across the interior Big Bend and Peninsula falling to near critical thresholds (35-40%). Winds will begin to increase this afternoon across the Panhandle and coastal Southeast Florida where gusts upwards of 25 mph are expected. Another round of widespread fog can be expected to develop statewide overnight and into the morning, with dense fog conditions possible. Foggy conditions will further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires. Additionally, a line of strong to severe thunderstorms will enter the Panhandle shortly after midnight. Thunderstorms can produce gusty/erratic winds which can influence ongoing wildfire behavior, and lightning can spark new or reignite existing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 58 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 8,357 acres.

 

Drought (3/5/26): The cold front that swept through the state last weekend (2/27-2/28) brought some “beneficial” rains to portions of the state, yet totals were still not enough to provide any real relief or alleviation to the ongoing long-term drought that has stricken Florida. The heaviest totals were found across the Panhandle and in pockets throughout Central Florida, generally upwards of 2-2.5” or so. However, other portions of the state, such as interior South Florida, saw negligible rainfall. This was reflected in the latest Drought Monitor update this week where the previous severe drought has been upgraded to an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) across the remainder of Collier, Lee, and Hendry counties. As such, all Southwest Florida is now under the extreme drought category as 90-day rainfall departures remain at 3-5” below normal. Elsewhere, no significant changes were made to the Drought Monitor this week. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persists across nearly all North Florida, outside of the western Panhandle that remains under a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe (level 2 of 4) drought. The largest rainfall departures in the past 3 months of 5-7” below normal is found across North Florida where streamflows remain well below normal, recreational and agricultural impacts have worsened, and brush wildfires continue to remain a concern. A moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains across much of the I-4 corridor where locally heavier rains have fallen in the past few months. The extreme drought conditions have brought increasing wildfire conditions as well, especially throughout South Florida where a few large wildfires have broken out (i.e. the National Wildfire burning nearly 35,000 acres). As of this update, 100% of the land across Florida remains within a category of drought and 70% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). The rainfall forecast through the next week does not look promising for any improvements to the drought. A few isolated showers or embedded thunderstorms could bring pockets of heavier rainfall to portions of the Peninsula as the local sea breezes begin to wake up amidst warmer temperatures, though widespread drenching rains are not expected.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 497 (+7) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A line of strong to severe thunderstorms will enter the Panhandle shortly after midnight tonight accompanied by locally heavy rainfall. Rainfall totals tonight will generally range between 0.5-1” across the Panhandle, though locally higher totals upwards of 2-3” cannot be ruled out.

 

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

 

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.22 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.27 feet below normal for this time of year.