Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, June 3, 2025
...Active and Unsettled Weather to Continue Throughout Peninsula...Scattered Showers and Thunderstorms; Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible...Widespread Rainfall with Heavy and Intense Downpours Possible; Flood Watch for Portions of South Florida...Earlier Onset of Flash Flooding and Ponding of Water Possible With Additional Heavy Downpours Over Areas That Have Already Seen Heavy Rainfall...Isolated Showers and Thunderstorms Returning to I-10 Corridor this Afternoon Along Sea Breeze...Breezy Wind Gusts Developing Throughout the State...Heat Index Values in Middle to Upper 90s Across Panhandle and Big Bend...Shower and Thunderstorm Activity Extending Northward Along Atlantic Coast and Northeast Florida Overnight...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Panhandle and Atlantic Coast Beaches...NHC Monitoring Low Chance for Development (10%) of Non-Tropical Low Offshore Southeast U.S. Coastline Over Next 7 Days; No Direct Threat to Florida But Could Bring Increasing Rain Chances, Breezy Winds and Elevated Surf for Atlantic Coast...
Updated at 10:11 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
West-Central & South Florida Florida Peninsula I-10 Corridor |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
South Florida & Keys Peninsula |
Panhandle & Big Bend |
Panhandle & Atlantic Coast Elsewhere |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Active and unsettled weather will continue throughout the Peninsula today as an upper-level disturbance remains overhead and a frontal boundary lingers. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms have already developed across the Florida Keys and southernmost Peninsula region, and they will continue throughout the morning hours. Additional scattered shower and thunderstorm activity will gradually develop throughout the day, especially during the peak heating hours of the day when the sea breeze moves inland (80-near 100% chance of rain). With any thunderstorm activity that develops, especially during the peak heating hours of the day, frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), small hail and heavy downpours may be embedded within. Plenty of available moisture continues to be pulled northward from the tropics, which will allow for heavy and intense downpours at times. A Flood Watch has been introduced across portions of South Florida through Wednesday morning where repeated rounds of heavy rainfall from yesterday and additional rainfall today could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water for urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) has also maintained a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding from the I-4 corridor and through the Florida Keys today.
Moisture returning across the I-10 corridor and the daily sea breeze may allow for isolated showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon and evening (25-55% chance of rain).
High temperatures will remain in the middle to upper 80s throughout the Peninsula with extensive cloud cover and elevated rain chances and upper 80s to middle 90s across the Panhandle with more sunshine. Heat index values this afternoon will reach the middle to upper 90s across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Breezy wind gusts outside of thunderstorm activity upwards of 15-25 mph will develop throughout the state by the afternoon hours, with the strongest wind gusts across Southwest Florida and the Keys.
As the upper-level disturbance shifts eastward towards the Southeast U.S. and the Atlantic waters this evening and overnight, a non-tropical area of low pressure looks to try to develop along the Florida coastline. Regardless of development, scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue into the overnight and extend northward along the I-95 corridor with the help of onshore winds (45-90% chance of rain).
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 60s to upper 70s overnight.
Offshore of the Southeastern U.S. Coast: A non-tropical area of low pressure is forecast to form near or offshore of the southeastern U.S. coast along a frontal boundary during the next couple of days. If the low remains offshore, it could gradually develop some subtropical or tropical characteristics later this week while moving northeastward at 10-15 mph. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time, but will bring elevated rain chances, breezy winds and rough surf conditions for Atlantic Coast beaches over the next couple of days.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…low…10%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk of rip currents can be expected along Panhandle and Atlantic Coast beaches. A low risk for rip currents can be expected for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf conditions will increase to 2-4’ across the state throughout the afternoon and evening hours, with the largest waves along Southwest Florida and Key beaches. Thunderstorms may create rough and choppy surf throughout the day.
Red Tide has been observed at background levels in one sample from offshore Okaloosa County over the past week (valid 5/30).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Active and unsettled weather will persist throughout the Peninsula today with multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds that could ignite or further spread wildfires. Shower and thunderstorm activity will return along the I-10 corridor this afternoon and evening after the last few days of drier conditions. Breezy wind gusts upwards of 15-25 mph will develop outside of thunderstorm activity throughout the state by the mid-to-late afternoon hours, with the strongest gusts likely across South Florida and the Keys. Mandatory Burn Bans are in effect for 13 counties in the Florida Peninsula (Charlotte, Collier, DeSoto, Duval, Glades, Hendry, Hillsborough, Lee, Manatee, Osceola, Pasco, Pinellas, and Sarasota). According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 48 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,121 acres.
Drought: The Sunshine State’s rainy season appears to be underway as thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall brought drought relief to East-Central Florida. However, the welcomed rainfall occurred east of the western Florida Peninsula and resulted in a 1-category degradation on the recent Drought Monitor (5/29). Severe drought (level 2 of 4) continues across portions of the St. Johns and Santa Fe River basins as well as the western and southern Florida Peninsula, extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues to affect Southwest Florida and the Everglades where water levels are very low. Above normal temperatures and above normal rainfall can be expected across Florida over the next 6-10 days as the typical summertime pattern returns.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 328 (-5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There is 1 Florida county (Monroe) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Active and unsettled weather will continue throughout the Peninsula today bringing widespread rainfall and rounds of heavy downpours. Tropical moisture continues to be pulled northward, aiding shower and thunderstorm development, and giving way to heavy and intense downpours at times. A Flood Watch has been issued across portions of South Florida as heavy rainfall from yesterday and additional rainfall today could lead to instances of flash flooding and ponding of water across urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Areas that have already seen heavy rainfall may be locally sensitive and see an earlier onset of possible flooding with any additional heavy downpours that occur over the same areas. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is maintaining a Marginal to Slight Risk (level 1-2 of 4) for Flash Flooding throughout the Peninsula through today from the I-4 corridor southward through the Keys. Any training or repeated rounds of rainfall over the same areas could also increase the potential for localized flooding, especially urban corridors. Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 4-7” possible.
Riverine Flooding: There are no river flooding concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.01 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.11 feet below normal for this time of year.
