Current Weather Outlook

Tropical Depression Seven: With the 5:00 AM EDT advisory, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) has begun issuing advisories for Tropical Depression Seven over the central tropical Atlantic. As of 5:00 AM EDT, the system is located about 1,185 miles east-southeast of the northern Leeward Islands and moving westward at 13 mph. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion across the tropical Atlantic and subtropical Atlantic is expected during the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph with higher gusts. Some slow strengthening is expected, and the system could become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Tropical Depression Seven poses no threat to Florida at this time.

Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located just east and southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are only marginally conducive, and any development of this system should be slow to occur while it moves westward at 15-20 mph across the eastern and central portion of the tropical Atlantic. Regardless of development, this system will likely bring areas of heavy rain across the Cabo Verde Islands later today and Thursday. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time.

*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…10%.

*Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.

For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.

Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents can be expected for nearly all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk for rip currents can be expected for West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Large ocean swells will continue to grow across most East Coast beaches today with persistent breezy onshore winds. East Coast beaches can expect wave heights of 4-6’, with some wave heights upwards of 8’ in the surf zone across the First Coast. Southeast Florida beaches will see wave heights of 2-4’. Swells will slowly build again across Panhandle beaches today, with wave heights returning to 1-2’ with some waves reaching 3’. West Coast beaches will see surf of around 1’.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Bay County in Northwest Florida and offshore Flagler County along the East Coast. It was not observed in any samples collected across Southwest Florida or the East Coast (9/12).

Coastal Flooding: Elevated high tides will continue to produce minor coastal and tidal flooding for portions of the Upper Florida Keys and coastal Palm Beach, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties near and during times of high tide. Coastal Flood Statements remain in effect through the afternoon for these mainland coastal areas and through the overnight for the Florida Keys. Growing ocean swells and onshore winds will trap elevated tides within tidal portions of the St. Johns River, leading to instances of minor coastal and tidal flooding near and during times of high tide, with a few instances of moderate coastal flooding possible. Coastal Flood Advisories remain in effect along the upper St. Johns River as well as along the Northeast Florida coast.

Fire Weather: Dry conditions persist across North Florida and much of Central Florida courtesy of high pressure over the eastern U.S. Northeasterly winds will continue today, with gusts reaching upwards of 10-15 mph along the Northeast Florida coastline this afternoon. These drier conditions will continue to suppress shower and thunderstorm activity north of I-4 corridor; however increasing showers and thunderstorm activity can be expected along the I-4 corridor. Relative humidity values should remain above critical thresholds for North and Central Florida, but will dip near critical thresholds (35-40%) across the Panhandle leading to a localized low wildfire risk given recent lack of rainfall. Moisture gradually increasing across South-Central and South Florida will bring back scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms later in the daytime hours and into the evening. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 20 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 504 acres.

Drought: Much of the drought across Southeast Florida continues to diminish with recent heavy rainfall and as reflected in the most recent drought outlook. The extreme drought across coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties has been reduced to a Severe Drought (level 2 of 4), while much of the previous severe drought area was reduced to Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4). In general, a one category reduction was made in all locations in Southeast Florida where most locations have seen rainfall departures 2” to upwards of 8” above normal in the past two weeks. Portions of coastal Martin County remain in a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where most heavy rainfall has missed. While wet conditions persisted across South Florida, very dry conditions were found across the Panhandle. Much of the northern Panhandle saw additional introduction to the abnormally dry (emerging drought) category where rainfall deficits have neared 2-3” over the last two weeks. These dry conditions will likely persist through the next week, leading to a possible categorical increase in the drought outlook next week. Elsewhere across the state, no additional changes were made. Abnormally dry (emerging drought) remains across inland Polk, Hardee, and DeSoto counties.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 304 (+13) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 14 Florida counties in the Florida Panhandle (Bay, Calhoun, Escambia, Gadsden, Hamilton, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Leon, Madison, Okaloosa, Santa Rosa, Walton, and Washington County) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a small Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across far Southeast Florida and the Miami metro area as a front finally pushes southeast through the Peninsula. Showers and thunderstorms will develop this afternoon and evening ahead of the front bringing locally heavy rainfall and intense downpours, leading to instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water. Localized areas in the Marginal Risk for Flash Flooding have seen double digit rainfall in the past week and saturated soils could lead to an earlier onset to flooding. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3” are possible with any repeated downpours across South Florida.

Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have remained in minor flood stage. Conditions will remain in minor flood stage through the weekend, with a chance for short-term rises into moderate flood stage. The upstream gauge at the St. Johns River near Deland is currently below flood stage but is forecast to rise into Action Stage (bank-full) later this weekend as tides continue to backfill up the St. Johns River. The Fisheating Creek at Palmdale is also at Action Stage (bank-full) and is expected to remain so through the end of the week with some additional heavy rainfall. There are no other riverine concerns, though localized heavy rainfall across basins may lead to some quick-response rivers seeing water levels rise, especially across South Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.90 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.59 feet below normal for this time of year.