Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, January 17, 2026
...Scattered Showers Traverse Across the Panhandle and Big Bend Today Ahead of the Next Cold Front... Temperatures Warm into the 60s and 70s Statewide... Showers and Light Rain Become Numerous to Widespread Across North Florida After Midnight... There is a Low to Moderate Chance (20-40%) of Wet Snow Mixing In as Rain Departs Across the Western Panhandle Before Sunrise Tomorrow... Accumulations, If Any, Will Be Minimal and Confined to Grassy and Elevated Surfaces... A Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents Expected for Most Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 09:10 AM EST
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
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Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Statewide |
Locally South FL |
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E. Panhandle East Coast & Southwest FL West Coast
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Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Warm and moist southerly flow will spread across the state today ahead of the next approaching frontal system. A few showers are ongoing across the western Panhandle this morning, and additional scattered showers will develop across the Panhandle and Big Bend throughout the day (30-60% chance of rain). Across coastal Southeast Florida, a few light sprinkles or a brief shower cannot be ruled out throughout the day, though activity will not be widespread in nature (15-20% chance of rain). A mostly dry day is on tap for the rest of the Peninsula where ongoing drought may lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon, though winds will remain light.
High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s across the Panhandle and Big Bend, with lower to middle 70s across the Peninsula.
Tonight, scattered showers will continue to stream across the Panhandle and Big Bend before becoming more numerous and widespread after midnight as the next potent frontal system taps into more Gulf moisture (60-90% chance of rain). This slug of widespread showers and light rain will begin to translate eastward after midnight with scattered to numerous showers spreading across Northeast Florida before daybreak Sunday (50-70% chance of rain). Further to the west, cold air behind the front will attempt to catch up to the departing rain which could lead to a few locations across the western Panhandle transitioning to a wintry mix or wet snow before daybreak Sunday (20-40% chance of snowflakes mixing in). If snow can mix in, any accumulations will remain minimal, insignificant, and confined to grassy and elevated surfaces. Warm southerly winds will promote fog and low clouds to develop across South Florida overnight, which could be locally dense.
Low temperatures will dip into the middle to upper 30s by daybreak Sunday across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Lows in the lower to middle 40s can be expected across Northeast Florida, with 50s across Central and interior South Florida. Coastal Southeast Florida will only reach the middle to upper 60s tonight.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and still locally elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents to all Panhandle beaches today. Along the East Coast, lighter winds and lower surf will bring a moderate risk of rip currents. A return to a low risk can be expected for most West Coast beaches, with a local moderate risk along Charlotte and Lee County beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Breezy onshore winds will bring slightly elevated surf of 2-3’ for all Panhandle and Southeast Florida beaches today. Waves of 1-2’ can be expected for all other East Coast and West Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in Bay and Gulf counties and background to very low concentrations in Franklin and Walton counties. In Southwest Florida, red tide was also observed at background concentrations in Sarasota and Charlotte counties and offshore Collier County. It was observed at low concentrations offshore Monroe County. It was not observed along the East Coast (valid 1/16/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Moist southerly flow ahead of the next frontal system will help to scour out the very dry airmass that has resided over the state the past few days. With the return of moisture, widely scattered showers are expected throughout the day across the Panhandle and Big Bend which will help to keep the overall wildfire threat low. Across the Peninsula, ongoing drought and preceding dry conditions will lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon as temperatures become much warmer from the past few days. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 33 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 362 acres.
Drought (1/15/26): Although some rainfall fell across portions of the state in the last week, totals were meager and expansion of much of the drought was seen in the past week’s drought monitor outlook. Rainfall totals were well below 1” across the Panhandle, which wasn’t enough to relieve the very dry soil conditions. Additionally, streamflows continue to diminish to below normal thresholds. As such, a severe drought (level 2 of 4) was expanded to include much of the Panhandle, with only the far western portions remaining in moderate drought (level 1 of 4). The ongoing extreme drought (level 3 of 4) over the northern Big Bend was slightly expanded this week to include additional portions of Calhoun, Jackson, and Jefferson counties. Rainfall totals over the last week were slim, at best, across the I-10 corridor. A severe drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place along the northern portion of the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River Valley. Additional expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was introduced to West-Central and Southwest Florida where warm and dry conditions have prevailed. Although coastal Southeast Florida saw some coastal showers with rainfall totals upwards of 2”, the developing drought has resulted in additional severe drought across interior Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. As of this drought monitor outlook, over 91% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 479 (0) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today. The next frontal system will continue to approach the state today with moist southerly flow bringing widely scattered showers to the Panhandle and Big Bend. Coverage in rainfall will increase after midnight from west to east across North Florida. Rainfall totals are expected to remain below 0.5” for most areas west of the Apalachicola River, however locally higher totals upwards of 1-2” cannot be ruled out in places that receive repeated rounds of heavier showers and steady rain. Localized nuisance flooding and ponding of water could occur in urban and poor-drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.10 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.61 feet below normal for this time of year.
