Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, January 15, 2026
...Potent Cold Front Continues to Push Southward Through the Peninsula... Widely Scattered Showers Expected Through the Afternoon Across Central and South Florida... Dry and Windy Conditions in the Wake of the Front Across North Florida... Breezy Wind Gusts Upwards of 35 mph Possible... Elevated Wildfire Conditions Expected with Critically Low Relative Humidities... Very Cold Night Expected Statewide... Freeze Warnings Extend Southward to Lake Okeechobee; Cold Weather Advisories in Effect for Nearly the Entire State... Sub-Freezing Wind Chills as Far South as Monroe and Miami-Dade Counties... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for all Florida Beaches Today... High Surf Upwards of 6' for Some Southwest Florida Beaches...
Updated at 10:01 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. Southeast Florida Coast |
Locally North FL Central & South FL |
North FL Central FL South FL |
Statewide |
E. Panhandle & Southwest FL E. Big Bend & East Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A potent winter cold front will continue to push southward across the Peninsula today, bringing with it widely scattered showers across Central and South Florida (40-80% chance of rain). These scattered showers are ongoing across much of the Peninsula south of the I-4 corridor and will continue to sweep southeastward throughout the day before pushing offshore by the late afternoon hours. In the wake of this front, cold, windy, and dry conditions will filter into the state. Breezy wind gusts upwards of 30 mph are possible this afternoon statewide. Across North Florida, relative humidities will approach or dip below critical thresholds (25-35% RH values), which will lead to elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon paired with the breezier winds. Locally greater wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out in areas experiencing the most severe drought.
High temperatures will be very cool for this time of year across North Florida, struggling to climb out of the middle 40s to lower 50s. These temperatures will be 10-15-degrees below normal for this time of year. Feels-like temperatures this afternoon will even struggle to get out of the upper 30s to middle 40s given the breezy winds. Highs will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s in Central Florida and upper 60s to middle 70s in South Florida.
By tonight, clear and calm conditions will promote a very cold night statewide. A Freeze Warning is in effect for nearly all North and Central Florida, stretching as far south as Hendry County in South Florida for widespread sub-freezing temperatures. A Hard Freeze is likely for much of North Florida where low temperatures will reach into the upper teens to middle 20s away from the coast with widespread patchy frost developing by daybreak. Low temperatures will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s even in Central Florida, mainly away from the coastlines as well. Coastal locations will remain in the lower to upper 30s in West-Central and East-Central Florida. In South Florida, lows will reach the lower to upper 30s for interior locations while coastal Southeast Florida can expect lows in the lower to upper 40s. Cold Weather Advisories are also in effect for nearly the entire state tonight, as far south as Monroe and Miami-Dade counties, for dangerously cold
sub-freezing wind chills. Coastal Southeast Florida may even see wind chills by daybreak Friday morning in the upper 30s to lower 40s.
Rip Currents: Breezy northerly winds will bring elevated surf and dangerous swimming conditions to much of the Gulf facing beaches today. A moderate to high risk for rip currents is expected for all Panhandle and West Coast beaches today. Numerous East Coast beaches can expect a moderate risk for rip currents to remain with growing ocean swells in the wake of a cold front. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: A building ocean swell from breezy northerly winds will bring elevated surf of 2-4’ for most Panhandle and West Coast beaches today. A few waves upwards of 6’ cannot be ruled out along Southwest Florida beaches and a High Surf Advisory is in effect from 3 PM EST to 1 AM EST for coastal Collier County. These waves will diminish across the Panhandle tonight, back down to 1-2’, though lingering along West Coast beaches. East Coast beaches can expect surf of 2-4’ this afternoon, growing to 3-5’ overnight.
Red Tide was observed at background to high concentrations in Bay County and background to very low concentrations in Gulf County along the Panhandle. It was also observed at background to very low concentrations in Charlotte County in Southwest Florida. Red Tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (valid 1/9/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Much drier air will begin to filter into North Florida today in the wake of the potent cold front passing through the central Peninsula. Breezy wind gusts upwards of 30 mph this afternoon, paired with critically low relative humidities (25-30% RH values), will bring elevated wildfire conditions to all North Florida. Locally greater wildfire weather conditions cannot be ruled out in any areas experiencing the most severe drought. However, given the cooler temperatures today, the overall wildfire risk will remain a bit muted. Across Central and South Florida, scattered showers will keep the wildfire risk low today, though ongoing drought will still lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 30 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 456 acres.
Drought (1/15/26): Although some rainfall fell across portions of the state in the last week, totals were meager and expansion of much of the drought was seen in the past week’s drought monitor outlook. Rainfall totals were well below 1” across the Panhandle, which wasn’t enough to relieve the very dry soil conditions. Additionally, streamflows continue to diminish to below normal thresholds. As such, a severe drought (level 2 of 4) was expanded to include much of the Panhandle, with only the far western portions remaining in moderate drought (level 1 of 4). The ongoing extreme drought (level 3 of 4) over the northern Big Bend was slightly expanded this week to include additional portions of Calhoun, Jackson, and Jefferson counties. Rainfall totals over the last week were slim, at best, across the I-10 corridor. A severe drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place along the northern portion of the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River Valley. Additional expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was introduced to West-Central and Southwest Florida where warm and dry conditions have prevailed. Although coastal Southeast Florida saw some coastal showers with rainfall totals upwards of 2”, the developing drought has resulted in additional severe drought across interior Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. As of this drought monitor outlook, over 91% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 483 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today. Isolated to scattered showers will move across Central and South Florida today ahead of a cold front; however, drier conditions will limit the amount of rainfall received. Rainfall totals will remain near 0.1-0.3”. Nuisance ponding of water cannot be ruled out within any locally heavier rainfall or repeated shower activity over urban areas, though in general the rainfall will be beneficial given the ongoing drought.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.18 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.53 feet below normal for this time of year.
