Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, February 4, 2026
...2026 Severe Weather Awareness Week! Wednesday's Focus is on Thunderstorms and Tornadoes...
...Cold Front Brings Light to Moderate Rainfall to Panhandle and Big Bend Today... Activity Spreads Eastward to Northeast and Central Florida this Evening and Overnight... Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Expected Across Northeast and Central Florida This Afternoon... Breezy Wind Gusts Upwards of 25 mph Possible... Locally Dense Fog Development Possible Across South Florida Overnight... Cooler Night Expected in the Wake of the Front... Lows in the 20s and 30s for Panhandle and Big Bend... High Risk for Currents for Most Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 9:30 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Coastal Flooding |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chills (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. Eastern Panhandle |
NE & Central FL Statewide |
Western Panhandle |
Panhandle |
Panhandle Space & Treasure Coast Northeast & Southeast FL West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A chilly start this morning across portions of Northeast and Central Florida; however, temperatures will quickly warm up this afternoon ahead of our next frontal system. This next cold front is currently making its way through the lower Mississippi River Valley with scattered to widespread showers and light rain ahead of and along it, spreading across the Panhandle. This activity will slowly slide eastward throughout the day with periods of light to moderate rainfall expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend through this afternoon (80-near 100% chance of rain). Although severe weather is not expected, some of this activity could lead to a few rumbles of thunder and nuisance flooding and ponding of water, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations. Across Northeast and Central Florida, relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (30-40% RH values) this afternoon which, paired with a few breezy wind gusts upwards of 25 mph, may lead to locally elevated wildfire conditions. A mostly sunny and dry day is expected across South and Central Florida today.
High temperatures will reach the middle 60s for much of the Panhandle and Big Bend this afternoon, with 70s throughout the Peninsula.
The frontal activity will continue to push eastward this evening and overnight, with scattered to numerous showers first spreading across Northeast Florida and then into Central Florida after midnight (50-near 100% chance of rain). Areas of light to moderate rainfall will be ongoing by daybreak Thursday across the Peninsula. Ahead of this activity across South Florida, moist southerly flow will promote areas of low clouds and fog by daybreak, some of which could be locally dense.
Behind the front, low temperatures will cool off into the middle to upper 30s throughout the Panhandle and Big Bend, with feels-like temperatures by sunrise reaching the upper 20s to lower 30s. Lows in the 40s can be expected across Northeast Florida and throughout the interior Peninsula, with coastal locations of Central and South Florida remaining in the 50s.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and lingering ocean swells along the East Coast and Panhandle will continue to create a high risk for rip currents. A moderate risk continues for much of Northeast and Southeast Florida beaches where locally calmer seas and winds are expected. A low risk returns to the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 2-4’ will continue along all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today, with waves near 1-2’ for West Coast beaches. An ocean swell will build overnight across the Gulf in the wake of our frontal system, with waves of 3-5’ for Panhandle beaches by daybreak Thursday. A few waves upwards of 6’ cannot be ruled out for Gulf County beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to very low concentrations in Walton County, background to medium concentrations in Bay County, and low concentrations in Gulf County across the Panhandle. In Southwest Florida, red tide was observed at background to very low concentrations offshore Hillsborough and Lee County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at background concentrations from Balm Beach County (valid 1/31/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Dry air will linger across Northeast and North-Central Florida throughout the day ahead of our next approaching frontal system. Relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds (30-40% RH values) which, paired with breezy wind gusts upwards of 25 mph, may lead to locally elevated wildfire conditions. Given the ongoing drought, locally sensitive wildfire conditions can be expected throughout much of the Peninsula. Across the Panhandle and Big Bend, moist air and rainfall will limit the overall wildfire threat today. This area of rain will eventually spread into Northeast and Central Florida this evening and overnight. Instances of patchy fog may also develop towards daybreak Thursday across South Florida, which can further reduce visibilities in active wildfire areas. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 118 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 3,333 acres.
Drought (1/29/26): We saw the greatest rainfall over the past week mainly across the Panhandle and north of the I-10 corridor with our frontal passage last weekend (1/25). Here rainfall totals of 0.5-2” fell, yet the ongoing long-term drought was hardly impacted. On the latest Drought Monitor outlook, severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across much of North Florida and the I-10 corridor, expanding eastward to include the entire First Coast. Long-term (60 day) rainfall departures across the Nature Coast and North-Central Florida have neared 3-4” below normal, which has prompted the addition of an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) category. The extreme drought also remains untouched across the northern Big Bend region where, despite some rainfall, soil moisture levels and streamflows are well below normal. Across Central and South Florida, very little changes were made to this week’s outlook. Some slight expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Palm Beach and Martin counties where rainfall departures continue to dip below normal. Some slight improvement in drought conditions were found along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline with recent coastal shower activity. As of this outlook, 94% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 481 (+1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A cold front will bring widespread light to moderate rainfall across the Panhandle and Big Bend today, spreading into Northeast and Central Florida overnight. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 0.5” for most locations, however locally heavier pockets of rainfall could lead to totals upwards of 1”. Given the very dry soils and grounds, this rainfall will be beneficial to the ongoing drought.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.66 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.98 feet below normal for this time of year.
