Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, December 11, 2025
...Clear Skies this Morning Give Way to Another Sunny and Dry Day Statewide... Locally Sensitive Wildfire Conditions Across North Florida as Relative Humidities Dip Near Critical Thresholds... Breezy Winds Along Coastal Southeast Florida this Afternoon... Freeze Warning in Effect Tonight for Much of Suwannee Valley, Frost Advisory for Lower Suwannee Valley... Patchy Frost or Freeze Likely Across Much of North Florida...Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 9:24 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
North Florida |
Suwannee Valley & Locally Panhandle North Florida |
Palm Beach & Gulf County Statewide |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Clear skies this morning will give way to another sunny and dry day across the Sunshine State as high pressure builds into the northern Gulf and Southeast U.S. A cold front will continue to sag southward through the state this afternoon, though any moisture will remain very limited ahead of this front and no rainfall is expected statewide. Relative humidities will dip to near critical thresholds behind this front across North Florida this afternoon (30-35% RH values) which will lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions given the ongoing severe drought. Winds will remain generally light across the state, though a few wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are possible across coastal Southeast Florida this afternoon.
Highs will remain seasonably cool today, reaching the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida, middle to upper 60s in Central Florida, and lower to middle 70s in South Florida.
A clear and calm night will promote cool temperatures across much of North and Central Florida overnight. A Freeze Warning is in effect for portions of Northeast Florida bordering the Georgia border where lows will dip into the upper 20s to lower 30s. A Frost Advisory is in effect for counties just south of that in the lower Suwannee Valley. Lows will reach into the lower to middle 30s across interior portions of the Panhandle and upper 30s to lower 40s along coastal areas. Patchy frost or freeze cannot be ruled out across interior portions of the Panhandle overnight. In Central Florida, lows in the upper 30s to middle 40s can be expected. Cool temperatures will also reach into interior South Florida overnight with lows dropping into the upper 40s near Lake Okeechobee and lower 50s elsewhere. Coastal regions of South Florida and the Keys will only reach the upper 50s to upper 60s.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today, with local high risks across Gulf County along the Panhandle and Palm Beach County in Southeast Florida. A moderate risk for rip currents is also expected for West Coast beaches as an ocean swell develops with onshore winds. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells of 3-5’ will linger through today along the entire East Coast with breaking waves upwards of 6’ off the Treasure Coast. A building ocean swell will increase surf to 2-3’ for West-Central Florida beaches today, with 1-2’ waves expected across all other Gulf-facing beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations along the Bay County coastline and background to low concentrations offshore Franklin and Gulf County. Red Tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the East Coast (valid 12/5).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Dry conditions will return across the state as high pressure builds in across the Southeast U.S. in the wake of the dry frontal passage today. Relative humidities will approach critical thresholds (30-35% RH values) this afternoon across North Florida which will lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions given the ongoing longer-term drought, even with the recent rainfall. Winds will remain generally light, though wind gusts upwards of 20 mph are possible along coastal Southeast Florida this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 8 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 193 acres.
Drought (12/11): Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches was observed across the Panhandle and North Florida over the past week as numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area the past weekend and early this week. As a result, this week’s Drought Monitor outlook features some reduction in drought categories across much of North Florida. Last week’s Exceptional Drought has been downgraded to an Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) across portions of Jackson, Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, and Madison counties. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place cross much of the I-10 corridor from Baker County to Holmes County in North Florida, with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) across the rest of the western Panhandle and southward across the southern portions of the Suwannee River Valley. Some slight reduction in the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was seen over coastal West-Central Florida of northern Hillsborough and Pinellas County where some localized rainfall totals of 4-6 inches was observed in the past week. However, just south of that, expansion of the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was added over southern Sarasota and coastal Charlotte Counties where rainfall largely missed. A general couple of tenths of rain were observed over South Florida in the past week, not enough to curb the developing drought. Expansion of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was added to this week’s outlook across much of interior South Florida, with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions expanding to the Southeast Florida coastline. Although shorter-term rainfall departures are above normal due to the recent rainfall, portions of North Florida are still under a long-term rainfall deficit (60-90 days) and drought conditions will persist. Additionally, rainfall chances will remain very low over the next week, or longer, which may lead to a resumption of deteriorating drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 396 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 12 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor is hovering near Action Stage (bank-full) this morning, though is expected to dip back below Action Stage later this afternoon or tomorrow. There are no riverine concerns. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.63 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.13 feet below normal for this time of year.
