Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, October 27, 2025
...Another Active Weather Day Expected for Florida... Strong to Severe Activity Possible Along the US-98 Corridor and Forgotten Coast This Morning...Rain and Thunderstorm Chances Expand Eastward Through the Day...East-Central Florida Received Excessive Rainfall Over the Past 24 Hours...Additional Rounds of Heavy Rain and Thunderstorm Activity May Lead to a Quicker Onset of Flash Flooding...Flood Watch Remains in Effect Until 8:00 PM for East-Central Florida...There is a High Risk of Rip Currents Along the Florida East Coast, with a Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Continuing for Florida Panhandle Beaches...Monitoring Categroy 5 Hurricane Melissa, with Maximum Sustained Winds of 160 mph...Melissa to Make Landfall in Jamaica Tonight into Tuesday...
Updated at 10:12 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Florida Panhandle & East-Central Florida Elsewhere |
Forgotten Coast | Forgotten Coast & Iso. Big Bend, Florida Peninsula |
Locally Florida Panhandle & North Florida |
East-Central Florida Florida East Coast |
Iso. West-Central & Southwest Florida |
Panhandle and East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Another active weather day can be expected across Florida, with an evolving frontal system promoting widespread rain chances nearly statewide (55-80% chance of rain). On current radar, a band of showers and embedded thunderstorms is moving through the Capital City region. Ingredients along the US-98 corridor and Forgotten Coast are supportive of strong to severe thunderstorms capable of producing locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and an isolated tornado or two. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) is outlooking a small Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Weather for this morning’s activity, and several Severe Thunderstorm Warnings have been issued this morning. While the severe thunderstorm risk is not extended eastward along the frontal system, a few thunderstorms may produce locally damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and locally heavy downpours into the Florida Big Bend this afternoon. Elsewhere across the state, ample moisture will once again support the development of scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms with the greatest coverage of activity residing along the I-95 corridor (60-80% chance of rain). This region received excessive rainfall over the past 24 hours, so while a few strong thunderstorms will be possible, additional heavy rainfall and instances of flooding are the primary concerns. While thunderstorms look to be somewhat more progressive compared to yesterday, today’s activity will tend to be more training in nature, or moving over the same areas for an extended period of time. Saturated soils and remnant rainfall runoff will likely lead to a quicker onset to any additional flash flooding. The Flood Watch has been extended to 8:00 PM EDT this evening for East-Central Florida. Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected; however, heavy showers and thunderstorms may produce rainfall totals upwards of 4-6” through the afternoon and evening hours.
While cloud coverage increases through the day, deep moisture will allow for afternoon high temperatures to reach the upper 70s to middle 80s statewide. Rain chances will gradually dissipate from west to east across the state, with lingering rainfall chances existing along the I-95 corridor tonight (25-35% chance of rain). Low temperatures will reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across North Florida and remain in the 70s throughout the Florida Peninsula.
Tropical Storm Melissa: As of 8:00 AM EDT, Melissa is located about 235 miles southwest of Port au Prince, Haiti and moving west-northwestward at 1 mph. A slow drift toward the west to west-northwest is expected this weekend, before a turn towards the north on Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Melissa is expected to move near or over Jamaica during the weekend and early next week, and it could be near or over eastern Cuba by the middle of next week. Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph with higher gusts. Rapid strengthening is forecast to begin over the next 24 hours. Melissa is expected to become a hurricane shortly and a major hurricane by Sunday. Melissa poses no direct threat to Florida at this time but continues to be closely monitored. Regardless, increasing dangerous marine conditions along the Florida East Coast are likely late next week.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a high risk of rip currents along all Florida East Coast beaches today, with a moderate to high risk for the Florida Panhandle coastline. A low risk of rip currents continues for the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights along the Florida Atlantic Coast will continue to ease today, with breakers in the surf zone reaching 4-6’ by this afternoon. Wave heights of 2-3’ will be possible along Florida Panhandle beaches as a frontal system advances across the region.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Sarasota County in Southwest Florida. It was also observed at medium to high concentrations from Gulf County in Northwest Florida. Red tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (10/24).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Winds will gradually become more southerly this afternoon and evening across the Panhandle ahead of an approaching frontal system moving westward. These southerly winds will help to keep relative humidity values above critical thresholds this afternoon, especially as the front approaches and moves into the western Panhandle later in the day. This front will help to bring much needed rainfall across the western Panhandle late today and into tonight. Sensitive wildfire conditions will prevail across the Panhandle, and locally elevated wildfire conditions will continue for the Big Bend due to ongoing drought conditions and dry weather from the last few days. Dry vegetation and grounds will provide fires with fuel for ignition and spreading. Relative humidities will also remain above critical thresholds elsewhere across the state, though breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph are expected along the Florida East Coast, with some gusts upwards of 25 mph across coastal Southeast Florida. A Burn Ban is currently in effect for Calhoun and Sarasota County. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 39 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 180 acres.
Drought: Although rainfall chances have generally been very low the past week, very wet soils from a rather wet early October has kept any drought in check across much of the Florida East Coast. However, a different story is unfolding across the western Peninsula and I-75 corridor where some slight expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) has been added to this week’s drought monitor outlook across interior Hillsborough, Charlotte, Collier, and Monroe counties. The cold frontal passage on Sunday brought some beneficial rainfall to the western Peninsula, however with amounts generally below 1”, there was no significant dent made in the emerging drought. Longer term (60-90 day) rainfall departures remain around 4-6” below normal for much of West-Central Florida and worsening drought conditions are expected as rainfall chances remain low through the next week or so. Further north, there was some slight expansion southward of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) into northern Levy County and southern Dixie county across the Big Bend region. Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of the Panhandle where a lack of rainfall and very low soil moisture prevails. Like the western Peninsula, the cold frontal passage from this past Sunday (10/19) brought a bit of beneficial rainfall, but not nearly enough to make a dent in the drought. In fact, some expansion eastward of the Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) into Madison and Hamilton counties was added on this week’s drought monitor outlook. No significant changes were made elsewhere across the Panhandle with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) conditions persisting for interior Northeast Florida and the Suwannee Valley. The next chance of rain for portions of the Panhandle may come on Sunday this weekend with another cold front, though widespread heavy rainfall is not anticipated at this time and drought conditions will continue to deteriorate.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 420 (+6) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties (Baker, Bay, Calhoun, Columbia, DeSoto, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Holmes, Hillsborough, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Santa Rosa, Sarasota, Suwannee, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: A River Flood Warning remains in effect for the St. Johns River at Astor as water levels have finally fallen below moderate stage. Water levels will continue to very slowly decline through minor flood stage as water discharges from the basin; however, a return a breezier onshore winds and elevated surf later could lead to a stall in discharge rates. The St. Johns River near Deland, Sanford and Lake Harney all remain within Action Stage (bank-full) due to the cascading back up of water levels from further downstream. Conditions are forecast to remain near stagnant or very slowly decline for the next several days. There are no additional riverine concerns at this time, For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.85 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.22 feet below normal for this time of year.
