Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, January 16, 2026
...A Cool but Sunny and Dry Day on Tap for the Sunshine State... Very Dry Air Expected Across Northeast Florida and the I-75 Corridor... Elevated Wildfire Conditions Develop this Afternoon... Moist Southerly Flow Returns Ahead of the Next Frontal System Tonight... A Few Isolated Showers Possible Across the Panhandle After Midnight... Low Temperatures Warm Up From Yesterday, Though Another Local Freeze Expected Across the Suwannee River Valley... A Moderate to High Risk For Rip Currents for Most Florida Beaches Today...
Updated at 09:28 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Northeast FL & I-75 Corridor Panhandle & South FL |
Locally Northeast FL |
Northeast FL |
E. Panhandle Southwest & Southeast FL E. Big Bend & East Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will briefly settle in over the state today ahead of the next frontal system this weekend. As such, a cool but sunny and dry day is on tap for the Sunshine State. Very dry air will remain in place across the state, especially for Northeast Florida and along the I-75 corridor where critically low relative humidities (20-30%) may lead to elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon. Locally greater wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out in any areas experiencing the most severe drought. Winds will remain light today statewide, though a few breezy gusts upwards of 20 mph are possible across the western Panhandle this afternoon.
High temperatures will climb into the lower to middle 60s for much of the state today. Northeast Florida can expect highs in the middle to upper 50s this afternoon and South Florida can expect middle to upper 60s.
High pressure will slide into the local Atlantic waters this evening and overnight which will reintroduce moist southerly flow to portions of South Florida and the Panhandle as the next frontal system approaches. A few isolated showers may develop across the western Panhandle after midnight, though any activity will be brief in nature (20-30% chance of rain). Otherwise, dry conditions are expected statewide.
Low temperatures will warm up for much of the state tonight with the moist southerly winds. Lows in the middle 40s to lower 50s can be expected for much of the state, though temperatures will only reach the upper 50s to lower 60s across coastal Southeast Florida. The local cold spot for the state will be across Northeast Florida and the Suwannee River Valley where lows will dip into the lower to middle 30s by daybreak Saturday. Instances of patchy frost cannot be ruled out in any rural or elevated locations.
Rip Currents: Onshore winds and still locally elevated surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents to all Panhandle and West Coast beaches today. Along the East Coast, light winds and lower surf will bring a low risk of rip currents to Northeast Florida beaches. However, a moderate to high risk is expected for all East-Central and Southeast beaches today. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf will slowly diminish today and tonight as winds subside from yesterday’s cold frontal passage. Waves of 1-3’ are expected for most Florida beaches this afternoon. However, locally higher surf is expected for Southeast Florida beaches where a few waves upwards of 5’ cannot be ruled out in the surf zone.
Red Tide was observed at background to high concentrations in Bay County and background to very low concentrations in Gulf County along the Panhandle. It was also observed at background to very low concentrations in Charlotte County in Southwest Florida. Red Tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (valid 1/9/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Very dry air will remain across much of Northeast Florida and the I-75 corridor this afternoon in the wake of yesterdays cold frontal passage. Although winds will remain light, critically low relative humidities (20-30% RH values) will promote elevated wildfire conditions this afternoon. Locally greater wildfire conditions cannot be ruled out in any areas experiencing the most severe drought. Given the ongoing drought across West-Central Florida, sensitive to locally elevated wildfire conditions will develop this afternoon. Temperatures will be warmer today across Northeast Florida which will increase the overall wildfire threat compared to yesterday. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 28 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 335 acres.
Drought (1/15/26): Although some rainfall fell across portions of the state in the last week, totals were meager and expansion of much of the drought was seen in the past week’s drought monitor outlook. Rainfall totals were well below 1” across the Panhandle, which wasn’t enough to relieve the very dry soil conditions. Additionally, streamflows continue to diminish to below normal thresholds. As such, a severe drought (level 2 of 4) was expanded to include much of the Panhandle, with only the far western portions remaining in moderate drought (level 1 of 4). The ongoing extreme drought (level 3 of 4) over the northern Big Bend was slightly expanded this week to include additional portions of Calhoun, Jackson, and Jefferson counties. Rainfall totals over the last week were slim, at best, across the I-10 corridor. A severe drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place along the northern portion of the I-75 corridor and Suwannee River Valley. Additional expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was introduced to West-Central and Southwest Florida where warm and dry conditions have prevailed. Although coastal Southeast Florida saw some coastal showers with rainfall totals upwards of 2”, the developing drought has resulted in additional severe drought across interior Miami-Dade and Monroe counties. As of this drought monitor outlook, over 91% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 479 (-4) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 30 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.18 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.53 feet below normal for this time of year.
