Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, January 10, 2026
... A Few Areas of Dense Fog Across North Florida Dissipate this Morning, Giving Way to Another Warm and Mostly Dry Day... A Few Coastal Showers Across East-Central and Southeast Florida this Afternoon...Locally Strong to Severe Thunderstorms Possible West of US-331 in the Panhandle this Afternoon with Approaching Cold Front... Gusty Winds, Heavy Downpours, and an Isolated Tornado Possible... Near Record Warmth Across North Florida this Afternoon... Additional Fog Development Expected Overnight Across Central Florida... Cold Front Activity Weakens to Scattered Showers Across the Panhandle and Big Bend Overnight... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 9:30 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Fog (Overnight) |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chill (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Western Panhandle | Western Panhandle | Western Panhandle | Isolated Statewide |
Locally Central FL South FL |
|
|
Panhandle East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
High pressure will begin to slide eastward into the local Atlantic waters today as the next frontal system approaches from the west. Areas of locally dense fog across Northeast Florida and the coastal Panhandle will dissipate mid to late morning, giving way to a warm and mostly dry day statewide. A few light coastal showers will be possible along the I-95 corridor of East-Central and Southeast Florida today, though any activity will be brief in nature (15-25% chance of rain). The greatest chance of rain exists across the western Panhandle where a few scattered showers or embedded thunderstorms are likely later this afternoon and evening as a cold front approaches (50-80% chance of rain). A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Thunderstorms is outlooked for the western Panhandle where a few locally strong to severe storms could produce gusty winds, heavy downpours, and possibly a brief tornado. Any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours could see nuisance flooding and ponding of water, though in general the rainfall will be beneficial to the ongoing drought. This activity will remain mostly confined to west of US-331 during the daytime hours today, though a brief shower cannot be ruled out as far east as the Chattahoochee River. Southerly winds ahead of this approaching cold front will increase today, with wind gusts upwards of 25 mph possible across the Panhandle this afternoon.
High temperatures will remain warm to possibly near record warmth across North Florida this afternoon, with highs in the upper 70s to middle 80s expected statewide.
The broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will trek eastward across the Panhandle early overnight, weakening as the greatest dynamics of the larger storm system pass north of the state. As such, only a few scattered showers are expected across the Panhandle and Big Bend (30-50% chance of rain), though a rumble of thunder cannot be ruled out. This line of showers will begin to approach Northeast Florida by daybreak Sunday. A few lingering coastal showers are also possible across coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys overnight (15-25% chance of rain). With moist southerly flow ahead of the cold front across Central Florida, another night of fog and low clouds will be possible, some of which could be locally dense.
Low temperatures will cool off in the wake of the front across the Panhandle tonight, reaching the upper 40s to middle 50s. Warmer overnight lows in the upper 50s to middle 60s can be expected across the Peninsula, with coastal Southeast Florida and the Keys only reaching the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Rip Currents: A moderate to high risk for rip currents is outlooked for all Panhandle beaches as breezy onshore winds bring dangerous swimming conditions. A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for all East Coast beaches today, with a low risk for all West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Southerly winds will bring an increase in wave heights across the Panhandle beaches today, with surf of 2-4’ expected. West Coast and East Coast beaches will see waves of 1-2’, with some Florida Keys beaches seeing waves near 3’.
Red Tide was observed at background to high concentrations in Bay County and background to very low concentrations in Gulf County along the Panhandle. It was also observed at background to very low concentrations in Charlotte County in Southwest Florida. Red Tide was not observed along the Florida East Coast (valid 1/9/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Warm and mostly dry conditions can be expected across the state once again, with moist southerly flow ahead of an approaching cold front keeping relative humidity values well above critical thresholds statewide. Sensitive wildfire conditions will be possible with the ongoing drought conditions and warm temperatures, especially for areas that have seen little to no rainfall recently. Breezy southerly winds may develop ahead of the approaching cold front, with wind gusts upwards of 25 mph possible across the Panhandle. The greatest chances of rain today will be later this afternoon across the western Panhandle, where a few locally strong thunderstorms are possible. Any of these thunderstorms could produce lightning and gusty/erratic winds which can spark new wildfires or spread existing ones. Another round of low clouds and fog will be likely overnight and into Sunday morning across Central Florida, with areas of dense fog possible. Foggy conditions and low clouds will further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing or new fires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 27 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 534 acres.
Drought (1/8/26): Some beneficial rainfall fell across North Florida this past weekend, bringing widespread 1-2” totals to the Panhandle and Big Bend. However, very little change was made to this weeks Drought Monitor outlook due to long-term drought and above normal temperatures keeping drought in place. Short-term rainfall departures are all below normal across the entire state, with the largest deficits (2-4”) over the western Panhandle. Here, moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, with severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) persisting over the interior eastern Panhandle and Big Bend. Severe drought (level 2 of 4) also remains in place across the Suwannee River Valley where streamflows are well below normal. Some of the biggest changes in recent outlooks has been across West-Central and South Florida where long-term rainfall departures have reached 4-6” in many locations. The severe drought (level 2 of 4) has expanded further south along the Gulf coast to include all of Charlotte and Lee counties, and westward to interior Glades and Hendry counties. Expansion of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) was also added across coastal Southeast Florida. Nearly 87% of the state of Florida is now under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse. Our next chance for rainfall returns this weekend; however, rainfall totals do not appear substantial enough to allow for category improvements.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 468 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 29 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. A broken line of showers and embedded thunderstorms will move through the Panhandle later this morning and afternoon, of which a few storms could be locally strong to severe. Any stronger activity could produce locally heavy downpours and result in nuisance flooding and ponding of water. Rainfall totals will generally remain below 0.5” for areas west of US-231, however locally higher totals upwards of 1-2” cannot be ruled out in any areas that receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.24 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.50 feet below normal for this time of year.
