Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, March 25, 2026
...Frontal Boundary to Support Elevated Rain Chances for Florida Peninsula...A Few Thunderstorms May Become Strong and Capable of Producing Locally Gusty Winds, Lightning, Hail, and Downpours...Localized Ponding of Water Possible...Breezy Conditions Linger Across Northeast Florida...Fog and Low Clouds Likely Tonight Across Florida...High Risk of Rip Currents for Many Florida East Coast Beaches, Moderate Risk Conditions Along the Florida Panhandle...High Surf Advisories in Effect Through the Afternoon at Northeast Florida Beaches...Dangerous Marine Conditions Continue...
Updated at 9:15 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Central Florida |
Iso. Central Florida |
Statewide |
|
Iso. Central Florida |
Southwest Florida & Suwannee River Valley North & South Florida
|
Florida East Coast Florida Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Our frontal boundary from yesterday has stalled across Central Florida and will continue to support elevated rain chances throughout the day. Ongoing showers over the adjacent waters of the Space Coast will help initiate additional scattered showers and thunderstorms, with activity expected to progress inland through the afternoon (40-60% chance of rain). Computer forecast models show shower and thunderstorm activity reaching portions of the Central Florida I-4 corridor and West Florida just before sunset. While there is no organized threat for severe weather or flash flooding, a few thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day may become strong. The more organized activity will be capable of producing locally gusty winds, lightning, small hail, and heavy downpours. Similar to yesterday’s activity, rainfall rates will likely become quite efficient this afternoon, and any slower-moving or more robust thunderstorms could produce localized rainfall totals of 2-5” and instances of ponding water or urban flooding. Outside of shower and thunderstorm activity, partly to mostly sunny skies can be expected with afternoon high temperatures rising into the upper 70s to middle 80s. Slightly cooler temperatures along the immediate eastern Florida coastline can be expected due to increased cloud coverage and breezy onshore winds, with wind gusts of 15-20 mph likely this afternoon.
Rain chances largely diminish after sunset, giving way to partly cloudy skies overnight. Lingering moisture will promote the development of patchy fog and low clouds across Florida tonight and Thursday morning, with the potential for periods of dense fog across the Suwannee River Valley and southern Florida Peninsula. Low temperatures remain mild in the middle 50s to upper 60s statewide.
Rip Currents: Breezy onshore winds and elevated surf will maintain a high risk of rip currents along nearly all Florida East Coast beaches, with a moderate risk of rip currents residing along the Southeast Florida coastline. Moderate risk conditions continue for the Florida Panhandle, with low risks persisting for Northwest Florida and West Florida beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Persistent easterly to east-northeasterly flow will maintain dangerous beach and marine conditions along the Florida East Coast today, with wave heights reaching 4-7’ within the surf zone. A High Surf Advisory remains in effect for Northeast Florida beaches until 2:00 PM ET this afternoon. Waves of 1-2’ expected for all beaches along the Florida Gulf Coast.
Red Tide was not observed statewide over the past week (valid 3/20/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A stalled frontal boundary over Central Florida will support elevated rain chances throughout the day, with additional shower and thunderstorm activity forecast to move inland across the Florida Peninsula through the afternoon hours (40-60% chance of rain). A few of these thunderstorms during the peak heating hours of the day may become strong and capable of producing locally gusty winds and lightning which may lead to more erratic spread or new ignitions, respectively. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds statewide; however, the combination of persistent drought and extremely dry soils/vegetation will maintain an overall low wildfire threat statewide today. Outside of thunderstorm activity, winds generally out o the east to east-northeast between 5-10 mph can be expected with wind gusts reaching 15-20 mph at times across North and Central Florida. Areas of patchy to locally dense fog can be expected again tonight across Florida, with the greatest chance for periods of reduced visibilities residing across the Suwannee River Valley and portions of the southern Florida Peninsula; a further reduction in visibility can be expected where fog develops near any ongoing wildfires or burns. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 78 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,496 acres.
Drought (3/19/26): Very little changes were made to this week’s Drought Monitor update, even despite much of the Sunshine State seeing beneficial wetting rains earlier in the period. As previously mentioned, the rainfall associated with the potent springtime cold front helped Florida locations in the near-term, as observed in improved KBDI values; however, observed rainfall totals were still not enough to alleviate long-term drought and dry soils/vegetation. Widespread severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues nearly statewide, with the largest change occurring along the northern reaches of the Suwannee River. Exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought has been introduced over eastern Madison, Northern Gilchrist, western Suwannee, and Hamilton counties; portions of the Florida-Georgia state line saw worsening soil moisture and precipitation deficits and several streamflow gauges moved into record-low territory for mid-March. Very heavy rain fell in parts of Miami-Dade County, resulting in some improvements to drought conditions, though the benefit of the heavy rain was likely limited given runoff and very low water levels in the Everglades.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 460 (+8) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 27 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Locally heavy rainfall rates and downpours will be possible within shower and thunderstorm activity this afternoon and evening across the central Florida Peninsula; while certainly a welcomed sight to the drought-stricken region, instances of ponding water and street flooding cannot be ruled out. Similar to yesterday’s activity, any slower-moving or more organized thunderstorms may produce localized rainfall totals upwards of 2-5”.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.02 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.33 feet below normal for this time of year.
