Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, November 17, 2025
...Fog to Linger Through Mid-Morning Hours Across Big Bend and Central Florida...Another Dry and Pleasant Day for the State...Weak Cold Front Passing Through North and Central Florida...Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions North of I-10 Corridor; Sensitive Wildfire Conditions for North Florida Continue...Another Round of Fog Possible Early Tuesday Morning Throughout the Peninsula...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Returns for Panhandle and East Coast...
Updated at 9:10 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally I-10 Corridor North Florida |
Central Florida South Florida |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast & South FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Locally dense fog has developed this morning throughout the Big Bend and Central Florida leading to reduced visibilities at times. Foggy conditions and low clouds will gradually lift and dissipate throughout the mid-morning hours as the sun continues to rise this morning. Another day of dry and pleasant conditions for the Sunshine State can be expected as a weak frontal boundary slowly moves through North Florida and into Central Florida today before stalling out. Unfortunately, this front will not bring any rainfall with it as it remains weak. A few light sprinkles may attempt to develop just offshore from the Treasure Coast later this afternoon and evening, but confidence is low. Drier air will move in behind the cold front across the northern Panhandle, mainly along and north of the I-10 corridor, allowing for relative humidity values to fall near and below critical thresholds (25-30%) this afternoon creating locally elevated wildfire conditions with the ongoing drought conditions. Sensitive wildfire conditions will persist throughout North Florida given the ongoing drought conditions and warm temperatures.
High temperatures will reach the upper 70s to lower 80s statewide this afternoon.
The frontal boundary will stall over Central Florida this evening and overnight which will allow for fog development by early Tuesday morning across the region and possibly extending into South Florida. Elsewhere across the state, dry and clear conditions can be expected.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, 60s throughout Central Florida, and middle 60s to near 70-degrees across South Florida overnight.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents returns along the Panhandle as well as for numerous East Coast beaches. All other beaches can expect a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Calm marine conditions are expected statewide with surf around 1-2’ for East Coast beaches. Isolated breaking waves of 3’ for Treasure Coast beaches are possible during the afternoon.
Red Tide was observed at background to low concentrations in Bay County, very low concentrations in Gulf County, and background to very low concentrations in Franklin County across Northwest Florida. Red tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast (11/14).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Dry air will filter into the northern Panhandle today behind a passing cold front moving into Central Florida allowing for relative humidity values to fall below critical thresholds (25-30%) along and north of the I-10 corridor this afternoon. While winds will remain light today, locally elevated wildfire conditions will develop for this area as critically low relative humidity values will fall over the worst drought conditions across the Panhandle. Sensitive wildfire conditions will persist across North Florida given the warm temperatures and ongoing drought conditions. Areas of fog development this morning, and again Tuesday morning, may further reduce visibilities where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 45 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 343 acres.
Drought: A frontal passage from this past Sunday (11/9) was the only rainfall of significance across much of the Sunshine State with rainfall totals remaining generally below 1 inch and spotty in nature. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor outlook. Across South Florida, some expansion of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions further into Hendry and Glades counties was introduced where 30-day rainfall deficits continue to grow. Similarly, across the Tampa Bay metropolitan region, rainfall departures from the past 60 days (longer term) have grown to 4-6 inches across the area. Some expansion of Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced to western Pasco and Hernando counties, as well as Hardee and DeSoto, while remaining across Pinellas, Hillsborough, Manatee, and Sarasota. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) Drought remain in place where a significant long-term drought has begun to take shape. In the past 60 days, rainfall deficits have neared 7 inches in some locations along the I-10 corridor. Streamflows in many streams, creeks, and rivers have dropped below their low thresholds. Some slight expansion southward of the drought categories across North Florida was seen in this week’s outlook. Rainfall is not anticipated for the next week, at least, across North Florida or the entire state which will continue to expand the current drought conditions. For the I-95 corridor and East Coast, soils remain saturated from heavy rainfall in October keeping any drought in check.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 473 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 39 Florida counties (Alachua, Baker, Bay, Bradford, Calhoun, Charlotte, Citrus, Columbia, DeSoto, Dixie, Franklin, Gadsden, Gilchrist, Gulf, Hamilton, Hardee, Hernando, Highlands, Hillsborough, Holmes, Jackson, Jefferson, Lafeyette, Leon, Levy, Liberty, Madison, Manatee, Nassau, Okaloosa, Pasco, Pinellas, Sarasota, Suwannee, Taylor, Union, Wakulla, Walton, and Washington) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The St. Johns River at Astor has finally returned to nominal background levels, though water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns, including Lake Harney and Sanford, remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning. There are no other riverine concerns statewide. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.79 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.17 feet below normal for this time of year.
