Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, March 18, 2026
...Chilly Morning Gives Way to Mix of Sun and Clouds this Afternoon Across North and Central Florida...Stray Showers or a Thunderstorm Possible for the Southern Florida Peninsula...Breezy Conditions Linger Along the I-95 Corridor and South Florida... Sensitive Wildfire Conditions Expected Across North Florida Given Critically Low Relative Humidities... Another Chilly Night for North Florida with Patchy Frost Possible...
Updated at 9:32 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. Southeast FL |
Locally Statewide |
Locally Interior North Florida |
|
Atlantic Coast Florida Panhandle, Northeast Florida, West Coast Nature Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
An even chillier morning across much of North Florida with temperatures observed in the upper 20s to middle 30s. A few select locations, such as Jacksonville International Airport, even tied daily record lows! Temperatures will continue to warm with the sun rise with a dry day on tap for North and Central Florida. A mixture of sun and clouds, as well as a cool and dry northeasterly breeze, will keep temperatures in the upper 50s to middle 60s throughout North Florida this afternoon. Highs will reach the upper 60s to lower 70s throughout Central and South Florida. The north to northeasterly breeze will remain elevated for much of the I-95 corridor and Southeast Florida today, with gusts reaching upwards of 20-25 mph. This onshore flow will also keep a chance for isolated to widely scattered showers throughout South Florida, especially along the coast (35-50% chance of rain). Very low relative humidities (15-25%) will allow for sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon across North Florida, even with some of the recent rainfall.
Another cold night is expected across North Florida, though will not be as cold as recent nights. Lows will dip into the middle to upper 30s, with a few rural locations possibly getting close to the freezing mark. Calm winds and clearing skies may allow for patchy frost to develop, especially in rural locations, important for agricultural interests as many plants and crops have already begun to bud, bloom, and green up. Additional Frost Advisories cannot be ruled out tonight for portions of North Florida. Lows throughout Central Florida will reach the upper 40s to middle 50s with upper 50s to middle 60s across South Florida where a few lingering showers may stick around along the immediate coastline overnight (25-45% chance of rain).
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents will persist for most East Coast beaches today, with a moderate risk expected for Northeast Florida, West Coast, and Panhandle beaches. A low risk will return to the Nature Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Dangerous beach and marine conditions will persist along much of the East and West Coast today. Waves near 3-5’ can be expected for most East Coast beaches, increasing to 5-7’ overnight for Southeast Florida beaches. West Coast beaches can expect surf near 2-3’ through tonight, while the Panhandle will see diminishing surf to near 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background conditions in Escambia, Walton, Bay, Gulf, and Franklin Counties, and in very low concentrations from one sample collected in Brevard County (valid 3/13/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Recent wetting rains have been certainly beneficial in the short-term; however, we will need several more rounds of rainfall to push the needle out of the deficit and improve the long-term drought and dry soil/vegetation. Relative humidity values will dip critically low (15-25%) across North Florida today which, paired with some breezy winds upwards of 15-20 mph, will lead to locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions. Winds will be strongest along the I-95 corridor this afternoon, with gusts reaching upwards of 25 mph. A few light showers will also linger throughout South Florida this afternoon. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 54 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,876 acres.
Drought (3/12/26): Very little changes were made to this weeks Drought Monitor update as much of the state struggled to see any meaningful rainfall enough to put a dent in the ongoing drought. The heaviest rains over the past week fell across portions of West-Central Florida with pockets of 2-4” of rainfall. A few localized pockets of heavier totals fell across Northeast Florida as well, though general amounts below 1” were found statewide. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place across much of North Florida and South Florida. In fact, some expansion of the extreme drought was seen across interior Palm Beach and Broward counties closer to the coastline. Throughout Central Florida, and small pocket of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) remains, though it shrunk with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding to include all of southern Sumter, Lake and Seminole counties. A moderate drought also remains in place for the very far western Panhandle. As of this outlook, 90% of the state is under a severe drought (level 2 of 4) or worse and 72% of the state under an extreme drought (level 3 of 4). Rainfall departures still remain well below normal across much of the state as recent warm and dry conditions have led to further drying of vegetation and grounds. Streamflows continue to drop to extremely low levels in some waterways across North and Central Florida, and some have completely dried up. Looking ahead, scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will be a theme each afternoon across much of the Peninsula, especially South Florida, through the weekend (3/13-3/15) as warm temperatures and the sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon development. Some of this rainfall could lead to localized amounts enough to put a good dent in the local drought (4-6” amounts through the weekend). However, a widespread drenching rainfall is not currently anticipated. Trends in the weekend rainfall will continue to be monitored to see if it will be enough for meaningful drought alleviation.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 426 (-38) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 19 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected across Florida today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.13 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
