Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Sunday, May 3, 2026
... Scattered Showers and Storms Expected Across South Florida Today with Heavy Rainfall Possible...A Cooler and Dry Airmass Moves into North and Central Florida...Some Elevated Wildfire Potential Remains Across Portions of Central Florida...
Updated at 9:07 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Excessive Heat |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South FL, Treasure Coast |
East Central FL Rest of State |
|
Southeast FL |
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Statewide |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
The cold front that moved through the northern half of the state on Saturday will has settled across South Florida this morning. This front will only slowly move southward into the Florida Straits by Monday and will serve as a focus for scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight, with the highest chance for rain expected south of Lake Okeechobee. Unlike yesterday, no widespread threat for severe weather is anticipated today, but a strong thunderstorm or two with brief gusty winds to 50mph and frequent lightning is possible. Additionally, some storms may contain periods of heavy rain up to 2” leading to a flash flood threat of urban metro areas between Palm Beach and Miami.
Across North and Central Florida, a cool and dry airmass will continue to filter in on north winds resulting in high temperatures in the mid 70s to low 80s and relative humidity values in the 30-45% range. Elevated fire potential exists across portions of Central Florida where these low humidity values combine with breezy winds and dry soils. Tonight, expect another chilly night with low temperatures dropping into the low 50s to low 60s across North Florida and low to mid 60s across Central Florida.
Rip Currents: Lingering ocean swells will produce a low to moderate risk of rip currents at all Gulf Coast beaches, except at Cape San Blas where a high risk is predicted. Along the East Coast, northeast winds and increasing ocean swells will also produce a low to moderate risk of rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Surf heights of 2-4 feet are expected along most of the East Coast today, with 1-2’ seas predicted for near the Florida Keys and along the inshore waters of the Florida Gulf Coast.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Escambia County (valid 5/1/26).
Fire Weather: Elevated wildfire conditions are expected across portions of Central Florida today. Even though temperatures will be cooler today behind the passing cold front, less than 1" of rain fell yesterday across most of the Peninsula. This afternoon, relative humidities will drop into the 35-45% range and winds have switched to out of the northeast at 5-15mph. These humidity values when combined with wind gusts to 35 mph will create the potential for wildfire development and spread in an area with dry fuels. Across South Florida, there remains concerns for new fire ignition due to lightning potential as scattered storms affect the area. Across North Florida, critically low humidity values in the 25-35% range are expected this afternoon, but the recent rainfall and lighter north winds should keep fire activity relatively low. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 90 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 15,076 acres.
Drought (4/30/26): 98% of Florida remains in at least a severe drought, with 25% of the state (eastern Panhandle to Suwannee Valley) in an exceptional drought. This is the highest percentage area of drought since the U.S Drought Monitor was created in 2000. Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) expanded this week across the Florida Panhandle, now including Bay, Jackson, and portions of Washington County on the west side of the Exceptional Drought area. Little change was noted east of US-301 in Northeast Florida where Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) continues. Throughout West Central and Southwestern Florida, Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) expanded further inland. In East Central Florida Moderate to severe drought (level 1-2 of 4) continues. In South Florida, Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) surrounds Lake Okeechobee and extends through Western Miami Dade County. Overall, nearly 80 percent of the state is in Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) or worse as of this drought report. Rainfall deficits since the beginning of the water year (October 2025) are running 12-18 inches below normal or more across the entirety of North Florida. This has resulted in extremely low or record low streamflows within all river basins, streams, lakes, and ponds.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 522 (-33) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 42 out of 67 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Flash Flooding: There is a marginal risk for flash flooding today for metro areas of Southeast Florida with periods of heavy rain.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.60 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.97 feet below normal for this time of year.
