Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Thursday, August 28, 2025
...Afternoon Showers and Thunderstorms Along Sea Breeze this Afternoon Over Peninusla...Embedded Locally Strong to Severe Storms Possible...Drier Conditions Persist for Panhandle...Triple Digit Heat Index Values Over South Florida; Drier Air Limits Magnitude of Heat Over North and Central Florida...Lingering Showers Into the Overnight Hours Over East Coast...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Extend Along Numerous Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...Monitoring New Area of Interest Off Africa Coast...
Updated at 9:31 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
South Florida Peninsula Panhandle |
Iso. Peninsula
|
Locally Peninsula |
North & Central FL South FL |
Panhandle & East Coast West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A typical summertime pattern will take shape across the Peninsula today as tropical moisture and the daily sea breeze boundaries promote afternoon shower and thunderstorm development (60-80% chance of rain). A predominate Gulf sea breeze will help to initiate showers and thunderstorms early this afternoon across the West Coast before moving over the interior Peninsula and East Coast during peak heating hours of the day. Some of these thunderstorms may be locally strong to severe and capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds (40-50 mph), and heavy downpours. Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, any areas that experience prolonged thunderstorms may see localized street flooding or ponding of water. A dry airmass will remain over the Panhandle keeping rainfall chances very low through at least today (10-20% chance of rain).
High temperatures throughout the state will remain in the upper 80s to lower 90s this afternoon. Drier conditions will keep heat index values in the lower to middle 90s across North Florida, while muggy conditions will keep heat index values in the upper 90s to middle 100s throughout Central and South Florida.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will generally taper off throughout the evening and overnight hours leading to mostly dry conditions, with some lingering showers and thunderstorms over the Treasure and Space Coast (30-60% chance of rain). Some showers may drift back onshore over Southwest Florida early Friday morning. Low temperatures will fall back into the lower 70s across North Florida and middle to upper 70s throughout Central and South Florida.
Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave is forecast to emerge off the west coast of Africa on Sunday. Thereafter, environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph, moving across the eastern and tropical Atlantic next week.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…low…20%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Lingering ocean swells along the Florida East Coast will continue to create a moderate risk for rip currents along all beaches. Panhandle beaches can still expect a moderate risk for rip currents. West Coast beaches will return to a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-3’ will continue for beaches across the state, with the largest waves along First Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in one sample collected offshore Sarasota County in Southwest Florida. In Northwest Florida, red tide was observed at background and very low concentrations in Gulf County and Dixie County. It was not observed in any samples along the East Coast.
Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not anticipated today.
Fire Weather: Drier conditions will persist across the Panhandle today as another dry airmass moves in. Relative humidity values will fall near critical thresholds (35-40%), but recent rainfall will keep grounds and vegetation saturated. Throughout the Peninsula, scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected as relative humidity values remain above critical thresholds. Increased rainfall chances will return statewide this weekend. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 14 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 260 acres.
Drought: Some much needed improvements were made across the state in the most recent drought monitor outlook. Upwards of 3-5” of rainfall fell across interior and southern Miami-Dade county in the past week, resulting in a reduction of the severe drought to a Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4). Mainland Monroe County likewise saw a reduction from moderate drought to abnormally dry conditions where beneficial heavy rainfall fell. There were no changes, though, along coastal Palm Beach and Broward counties where a Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) persists. However, these areas have seen 2-4” of rainfall in just the past 3 days which will be reflected in next week’s drought outlook. The Nature Coast saw plentiful rainfall in the past week with a general 2-4” of rain with upwards of 7” resulting in a removal of the abnormally dry conditions. Likewise, beneficial rainfall across Polk, Hardee, and DeSoto Counties has resulted in a removal of moderate drought. Over North Florida and the Panhandle, increased rainfall chances will continue to keep drought conditions mitigated through the weekend.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 238 (+5) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There is 1 Florida county (Holmes County) that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. Daily showers and thunderstorms along the sea breeze this afternoon will bring localized heavy downpours at times that could lead to instances of localized flash flooding and ponding of water. Portions of Central Florida may be locally sensitive to additional rainfall with repeated downpours yesterday. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 2-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: River Flood Warnings have been issued for the Little Manatee at Wimauma at US-301 and the Myakka River at Myakka River State Park as water levels have risen into minor flood stage following repeated rounds of heavy rainfall. The Little Manatee River has already peaked within minor flood stage and is falling through minor flood stage rather quickly. The Myakka River is forecast to crest at minor flood stage this afternoon before falling into Action Stage through the weekend. The St. Johns River at Astor, Fisheating Creek at Palmdale, and Georgetown have been observed at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning and will persist through today. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.34 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.82 feet below normal for this time of year.
