Current Weather Outlook

Tropical Storm Dexter: As of 5:00 AM AST, Dexter is located about 425 miles South of Newfoundland and moving east-northeastward at 18 mph. This motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Maximum sustained winds are at 50 mph with higher gusts. Strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours as the system becomes extratropical. Dexter poses no direct threat to Florida.

Off the Southeast U.S. : A weak area of low pressure located a couple hundred miles off the coast of the southeastern U.S. is producing minimal showers and thunderstorms. Some slow development is possible over the weekend while the system meanders northward, remaining well off the east coast of the U.S. By early next week, the low is expected to become extratropical, ending its chances for development. This system poses no direct threat to Florida at this time; however, it could bring elevated rain chances and rip currents along portions of the East Coast later in the week and into the weekend.

*Formation chance through 48 hours…low…near 0%.

*Formation chance through 7 days…low…30%.

Central Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave over the central tropical Atlantic continues to produce disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development during the next few days. A tropical depression could form late this week or over the weekend as the system moves generally west-northwestward to northwestward across the central tropical or subtropical Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida at this time but continues to be monitored.

*Formation chance through 48 hours…low… 10%.

*Formation chance through 7 days…medium…60%.

Rip Currents: There is a moderate to high risk for rip currents along the Florida East Coast. A moderate rip current risk continues for numerous Panhandle beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: Wave heights will return to 2-3’ along East Coast beaches while West Coast beaches will see wave heights of 1’.

Red Tide was observed in one sample from Florida’s Gulf Coast (Lee County) over the past week (valid 8/1).

Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.

Fire Weather: Widespread shower and thunderstorm activity can be expected across North Florida today keeping the overall wildfire threat very low. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms across the interior Peninsula can be expected along the sea breeze. Plenty of moisture across the state will keep relative humidity values well above critical thresholds. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 35 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 478 acres.

Drought: Very little positive changes were made during this week’s drought monitor outlook. The Panhandle and interior portions of the Peninsula saw the greatest rainfall in the past two weeks totaling 6-10” of rain. Although Southeast Florida did see some beneficial rainfall, two-week rainfall departures still remain 2-3” below normal. As such, the Severe drought (level 2 of 4) remained untouched across the region and the Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) expanded across western Miami-Dade county. An Extreme Drought was also added to coastal regions of Broward county where most of the recent thunderstorm activity missed. Portions of the Nature Coast remain in Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) where monthly rainfall totals are at a 2-4” deficit. Portions of Clay county in Northeast Florida did see a removal of the abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions with recent heavy rainfall. Rainfall chances will remain elevated across the state this weekend and into next week with daily thunderstorm chances which may alleviate some drought conditions.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 309 (-14) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).  

Flash Flooding: Multiple rounds of showers and thunderstorms, especially some that are slow-moving, will lead to an increased risk for localized flash flooding today. Abundant moisture will help to fuel these showers and thunderstorms along the decaying cold front, helping to increase coverage and extent. The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the I-10 corridor, south to SR 40 and the Nature Coast. Rainfall totals of 1-3” can be expected, with locally higher totals upwards of 3-5” possible especially across the Suwannee River Valley and Nature Coast. Training could lead to an earlier onset to any possible flooding with repeated rounds of heavy downpours over the same areas. Although much of Central and South Florida are not under an organized risk for flash flooding, any slow-moving thunderstorms could produce localized flash flooding, especially in urban and poor-drainage locations.

Riverine Flooding: The St. Marks River near Newport, Sopchoppy River near Sopchoppy , and Bruce Creek near Redbay have risen into Action Stage (bank-full) following recent heavy rainfall over the last few days. Rivers across the Panhandle are in good condition right now; however, any locally heavy downpours over the river basin could lead to a quick-response rise. Any heavy rainfall that occurs in southern Georgia in the river headwaters will then flow southward through the basin into Florida. Fisheating Creek at Palmdale remains within Action Stage as well, but is forecast to hover below flood stage and Action Stage over the next day or so. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.03 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.81 feet below normal for this time of year.