Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Wednesday, May 14, 2025
...Dry Conditions Return Across the Sunshine State as High Pressure Develops...Instances of Brief Showers May Be Possible Across Central Peninsula...Plenty of Sunshine With Cloud Cover Mixed In...Temperatures in 80s and Lower 90s; Heat Index Values Creeping Into Lower 90s...Calm and Quiet Conditions Overnight...Instances of Fog Possible Early Thursday Morning...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Along Numerous East Coast Beaches; Panhandle Beaches to See High Risk...
Updated at 9:16 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
| Iso. South Florida | Iso. Statewide |
North Florida Statewide |
Panhandle East Coast West Coast & Southeast FL |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
After an active and wet weather pattern over the last few days, mostly dry conditions will return across the Sunshine State. High pressure will develop over the eastern gulf waters and expand across the state helping to bring dry conditions. There may be a chance for spotty brief showers across portions of the central Peninsula where there is locally elevated moisture, but confidence remains low with the building high pressure (10-15% chance of rain). Overall, mostly sunny skies can be expected with instances of cloud cover mixed in throughout the state.
High temperatures will reach the middle to upper 80s and lower 90s this afternoon. Onshore winds along the coast will keep temperatures slightly cooler than inland areas. Heat index values, or feels-like temperatures, will climb into the lower 90s across most of the state.
Calm and quiet conditions can be expected to continue through the overnight hours. Onshore winds and clear skies will give way to instances of patchy fog developing early Thursday morning, especially across North Florida.
Low temperatures will fall into the middle to upper 60s and lower 70s throughout the state overnight. Portions of Southeast Florida and the Florida Keys will only see low temperatures in the middle 70s providing little relief from daytime heat.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents can be expected for numerous East Coast beaches with a high risk for Panhandle beaches due to persist onshore winds. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Marine conditions continue to gradually improve across the state as wave heights return to 1-2’ with larger waves upwards of 3’ along Northeast Florida beaches.
Red Tide has been observed at background levels in 2 samples collected from Southwest Florida (Offshore of Sarasota and Bay Counties) over the past week (valid 5/2).
Coastal Flooding: Coastal flooding is not expected today.
Fire Weather: Drier conditions return across the state as a pattern change compared to the last few days can be expected. Relative humidity values throughout the state will remain mostly above critical thresholds with interior portions of South Florida falling near critical thresholds this afternoon. Mostly calm winds blowing onshore can be expected across the state, with gusts reaching upwards of 15 mph along the coastlines. Even with the multiple rounds of rainfall over the last few days longer term drought conditions will create a locally sensitive wildfire threat due to dry grounds and vegetation. Mandatory Burn Bans are in effect for 19 counties in the Florida Peninsula (Charlotte, Citrus, Collier, DeSoto, Flagler, Glades, Hardee, Hendry, Highlands, Lake, Lee, Manatee, Okeechobee, Orange, Osceola, Pasco, Polk, Sarasota, and Sumter). Areas of patchy fog will be possible across portions of the state overnight into Thursday morning. Foggy conditions may further reduce visibility where there are ongoing wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 27 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,893 acres.
Drought: Heavy rainfall of 2” or more led to some decrease in Abnormal Dryness (Emerging Drought) and Moderate Drought conditions on this week’s Drought Monitor update (valid 5/8). However, through 5/6, drought intensified across the Florida Peninsula with many areas depicted in the Severe to Extreme Drought category. This widespread Severe to Extreme Drought coverage is supported by the 60-day SPI, 28-day average streamflows, and impact reports. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is outlooking near to above normal temperatures statewide with above normal rainfall along the Peninsula over the next week or so which may allow drought conditions to improve slightly. Near to below normal rainfall outlooked along the Florida Panhandle may allow drought conditions to hold steady over the next week.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 245 (-56) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are no Florida counties with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: The Shoal River near Crestview has gradually risen into Action Stage (bank-full) but waters levels will crest within the next day before falling below conditions later this week. The Choctawhatchee River at Caryville is forecast to gradually rise barely into Action Stage (bank-full) in the next few days before quickly falling below. All other rivers, creeks and waterways will remain below flood stage. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.19 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.13 feet below normal for this time of year.
