Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Friday, July 11, 2025
...Typical Summertime Thunderstorm Pattern Across the State...Showers and Thunderstorms This Afternoon and Evening...Stronger Thunderstorms Possible - Lightning, Gusty Winds, Heavy Downpours,...Ponding of Water Possible With Heavy Downpours-Flash Flooding Possible...Hot and Humid Conditions; Triple Digit Heat Index Values Statewide...Brief Heat Advisories Cannot Be Ruled Out...Lingering Showers and Thunderstorms Over Coastal Waters Overnight...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents for Numerous North Florida and Space Coast Beaches; Locally High Risk for Gulf County...No Tropical Cyclone Activity Expected Over Next 7 Days...
Updated at 9:30 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Statewide |
Northern Panhandle & Big Bend | Statewide | Iso. Suwannee River Valley & Northeast Florida |
Gulf County North Florida & Space Coast Peninsula |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A near carbon copy to yesterday can be expected once again today. Coastal showers and thunderstorms have developed this morning, which will gradually move inland throughout the day with help of daytime heating. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected across the state as the typical sea breeze thunderstorm pattern develops throughout the day (50-85% chance of rain). With the typical summertime thunderstorm pattern, embedded locally strong to severe thunderstorms may also be possible. Stronger thunderstorm activity will be capable of producing frequent lightning, damaging wind gusts (45-60 mph), and heavy downpours. There is a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding along the Panhandle and the I-10 corridor through today where abundant moisture could provide showers and thunderstorms with the ability to produce heavy downpours that could lead to flash flooding and ponding of water.
Hot and humid conditions can be expected throughout the state. High temperatures will continue to reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Heat index values will reach triple digits (100-107-degrees) throughout the state. Several areas across the state could see heat index values approach Heat Advisory criteria, and a brief one cannot be ruled out later today.
Showers and thunderstorms will continue throughout the evening hours before shifting offshore and dissipating overnight. Mostly dry conditions will return overnight throughout the state, but some lingering showers and embedded rumbles of thunder may be possible over the adjacent coastal waters (15-30% chance of rain). Instances of patchy fog cannot be ruled out early Thursday morning as well. Low temperatures will fall into the 70s and lower 80s overnight.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: There is a moderate risk of rip currents along numerous North Florida and Space Coast beaches. A low risk can be expected for Florida Peninsula beaches, with a locally high risk along Gulf County beaches. . For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along statewide beaches, with possible breaking waves upwards of 3' along portions of the Space Coast.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/27).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Abundant moisture will help scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms to develop across the state throughout the daytime hours. Relative humidity values will remain well above critical thresholds, courtesy of a very moist tropical airmass. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent and erratic winds, which could spread new or ongoing wildfires over areas that have missed out on the recent heavier rainfall; however, saturated soils/vegetation will largely limit the wildfire threat statewide. Instances of locally patchy fog possible be possible early in the morning. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 28 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 10,970 acres.
Drought: Improvements continue to be made along the Florida West Coast with the wet and active weather pattern that brought plentiful rainfall last week of 2-4”. Moderate drought (level 1 of 4) was nearly removed along the Florida West Coast through Central Collier County, except for a portion of Nature Coast where longer term drought conditions and lower streamflow. Conditions largely remain unchanged along the I-95 corridor, with severe drought (level 2 of 4) expanding across Southeast Florida. Central Palm Beach County continues to see extreme drought conditions (level 3 of 4) where the heaviest rainfall continues to miss the area.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 181 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). Zero Florida counties have an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: The Weather Prediction Center (WPC) is outlooking a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for Flash Flooding across the Panhandle and along the I-10 corridor where shower and thunderstorm activity may be capable of producing heavy and intense downpours that lead to instances of flash flooding. Abundant moisture and the daily sea breeze will give way to multiple rounds of shower and thunderstorm activity, some of which may be over the same areas that have already seen heavy rainfall the last few days. Rainfall totals of 1-2” can be expected with locally higher totals upwards of 3-4” possible.
Riverine Flooding: Multiple rounds of widespread shower and thunderstorm activity will likely result in water level rises along West-Central Florida rivers, creeks, streams, and waterways. The Myakka River at Myakka River State Park could rise near or into Action Stage (bank-full). For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 11.48 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.07 feet below normal for this time of year.
