Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, February 2, 2026
...Today Marks the First Day of 2026 Severe Weather Awareness Week! Monday's Focus is on Lightning...Happy Groundhog Day! Punxsutawney Phil Sees His Shadow, Predicting Six More Weeks of Winter...
...Temperatures Slow to Rise Despite Ample Sunshine...Freeze Warnings and Cold Weather Advisories Likely Again Tonight, While Not as Cold as Frigid Weekend Temperatures...Pockets of Frost Possible...Elevated Wildfire Conditions Expected Statewide, With Lingering Breezy Winds, Worsening Drought, and Critical Relative Humidities...Moderate to High Risk of Rip Currents Continues for all Florida Beaches...High Surf Advisories Remain in Effect Along the Florida East Coast...
Updated at 10:15 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Coastal Flooding |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Wind Chills (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Statewide |
Locally Florida Keys |
Locally Suwannee River Valley Northeast Florida & Interior Peninsula Statewide |
Locally Suwannee River Valley Northeast Florida & Interior Peninsula Statewide |
Florida Peninsula North Florida |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Temperatures are slow to rise across the Sunshine State, despite ample sunshine! Cold Weather Advisories and Extreme Cold Warnings will continue to expire through the mid-morning hours as temperature readings and wind chills rise above the freezing mark. A dominant area of high pressure will gradually sprawl across the Southeast U.S., allowing for temperatures to reach the lower to middle 50s across North and Central Florida and the upper 50s to lower 60s throughout South Florida. Northwesterly winds will further subside today, with lingering wind gusts of 10-20 mph possible throughout the Florida Peninsula.
While not as cold as recent days, another night of sub-freezing temperatures can be expected throughout Florida and Freeze Warnings will go into effect from the Suwannee River Valley through interior South Florida. The feels-like temperatures improve comparatively to this past, frigid weekend; however, Cold Weather Advisories will likely extend from the Florida Big Bend through south of Lake Okeechobee once again tonight for wind chill values in the middle 20s to middle 30s. The calmer wind regime tonight may promote regions of frost, especially on grassy and elevated surfaces.
Rip Currents: Lingering breezy northwest winds will maintain a moderate to high risk of rip currents for all Florida beaches today. Low risk conditions gradually return along the far western Florida Panhandle and Nature Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: High Surf Advisories remain in effect along the Florida East Coast until Tuesday morning as winds continue to settle across the Sunshine State. Wave heights of 6-8’ can be expected within the surf zone from the Florida Space Coast to Treasure Coast. Isolated breakers of 8-9’ cannot be ruled out along Palm Beach County beaches. Elsewhere along Atlantic beaches, wave heights of 3-5’ can be expected. Waves will remain less than 2’ along all Florida Gulf Coast beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to very low concentrations in Walton County, background to medium concentrations in Bay County, and low concentrations in Gulf County across the Panhandle. In Southwest Florida, red tide was observed at background to very low concentrations offshore Hillsborough and Lee County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at background concentrations from Balm Beach County (valid 1/31/2026).
Coastal Flooding: Northwesterly winds will continue to ease, allowing for Coastal Flood Statements to expire along the Florida Keys; however, brief periods of elevated water levels cannot be ruled out at or near times of high tide for the next 12 hours or so.
Fire Weather: A very dry airmass will promote elevated wildfire conditions statewide, with relative humidity values falling at or below critical thresholds (20-35%). While not as breezy as recent days, lingering north-northwesterly winds gusts of 10-20 mph can be expected throughout much of the Florida Peninsula. Long-term dry soils/vegetation will yield locally higher wildfire concerns in areas that continue to see worsening drought. Another round of freezing temperatures can be expected throughout much of the Sunshine State tonight into Tuesday morning. A quick pattern change can be expected ahead of our next weather system midweek, with temperatures climbing above freezing and foggy mornings returning to the forecast by Tuesday night. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 99 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 2,422 acres.
Drought (1/29/26): We saw the greatest rainfall over the past week mainly across the Panhandle and north of the I-10 corridor with our frontal passage last weekend (1/25). Here rainfall totals of 0.5-2” fell, yet the ongoing long-term drought was hardly impacted. On the latest Drought Monitor outlook, severe drought (level 2 of 4) persists across much of North Florida and the I-10 corridor, expanding eastward to include the entire First Coast. Long-term (60 day) rainfall departures across the Nature Coast and North-Central Florida have neared 3-4” below normal, which has prompted the addition of an extreme drought (level 3 of 4) category. The extreme drought also remains untouched across the northern Big Bend region where, despite some rainfall, soil moisture levels and streamflows are well below normal. Across Central and South Florida, very little changes were made to this week’s outlook. Some slight expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Palm Beach and Martin counties where rainfall departures continue to dip below normal. Some slight improvement in drought conditions were found along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline with recent coastal shower activity. As of this outlook, 94% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 480 (+1) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 32 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.72 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.93 feet below normal for this time of year.
