Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, December 13, 2025
...Patchy Dense Fog Across North Florida Gives Way to a Sunny and Mostly Dry Day Statewide... Upper-level Disturbance Approaches Florida Keys this Afternoon with a Few Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers... Activity Increases Overnight South of Lake Okeechobee; A Few Locally Heavy Downpours Possible... Next Potent Cold Front Nears North Florida Late Tonight... A Few Isolated Showers Possible Across the Western Panhandle After Midnight... Additional Patchy Dense Fog Development Possible Overnight Across Portions of North and Central Florida... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...
Updated at 8:40 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
| South Florida (Overnight) |
North Florida |
|
Suwannee Valley & Big Bend North & Central Florida Locally South Florida |
Southeast FL Panhandle Space & Treasure Coast West Coast
|
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy dense fog have developed this morning across much of the Panhandle and Big Bend, and Dense Fog Advisories will remain in effect through mid-morning. Any area of patchy fog should dissipate later this morning as sunny and dry conditions prevail. Surface high pressure will continue to linger across the Sunshine State which will help to keep rainfall chances near zero nearly statewide. However, across the Florida Keys and the southern Peninsula, an upper-level disturbance will emerge out of the Gulf and approach later today. A few isolated to widely scattered showers may break out late this afternoon, mainly across the Florida Keys (25-35% chance of rain).
High temperatures today will warm into the lower to middle 70s across North Florida and the middle to upper 70s in Central and South Florida. A few areas across coastal Southeast Florida may reach the lower 80s this afternoon.
The upper-level disturbance will continue to traverse across the southern Peninsula overnight bringing scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms, mainly south of Lake Okeechobee (40-70% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for flash flooding, a few locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out in any embedded thunderstorm activity. Mostly dry conditions will continue across North and Central Florida, however the next potent cold front will begin to approach the western Panhandle by daybreak Sunday morning. Although moisture will be limited out ahead of this front, a few isolated showers may develop across the western Panhandle after midnight tonight (25-35% chance of rain). Calm conditions will promote another night of patchy dense fog development, especially across the Big Bend, Suwannee Valley, and Central Florida.
Low temperatures will dip into the upper 40s to lower 50s for North Florida, middle to upper 50s in Central Florida, and lower to middle 60s in South Florida. Coastal Southeast Florida will see lows in the upper 60s to lower 70s.
Hurricane season officially runs from June 1 to November 30.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A moderate risk for rip currents is expected for most Panhandle, Space Coast, and Treasure Coast beaches today with a high risk for rip currents expected for Southeast Florida beaches where some lingering elevated surf will remain. A low risk will return to West Coast and Northeast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Ocean swells will diminish today along much of the entire East Coast with surf of 1-3’ expected. A few waves upwards of 4’ cannot be ruled out in the surf zone off Southeast Florida. Wave heights around 1’ can be expected for all West Coast and Panhandle beaches.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations in both Bay and Gulf counties and background to low concentrations in Franklin County. Red Tide was not observed in Southwest Florida or along the Florida East Coast (valid 12/12).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida.
Fire Weather: Dry conditions will remain across much of the state ahead of the next frontal system on Sunday. Generally light winds and relative humidities above critical thresholds will keep the overall wildfire threat low today. However, ongoing long-term drought across much of North Florida, and developing drought across South Florida, may still lead to locally sensitive wildfire conditions this afternoon. Winds across coastal Southeast Florida may gust upwards of 20 mph this afternoon. Some beneficial rainfall will begin to spread across South Florida later this evening and overnight. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 14 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 405 acres.
Drought (12/11): Widespread rainfall totals of 2-4 inches was observed across the Panhandle and North Florida over the past week as numerous rounds of showers and thunderstorms rolled through the area the past weekend and early this week. As a result, this week’s Drought Monitor outlook features some reduction in drought categories across much of North Florida. Last week’s Exceptional Drought has been downgraded to an Extreme Drought (level 3 of 4) across portions of Jackson, Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, Leon, Wakulla, Jefferson, and Madison counties. Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) remains in place cross much of the I-10 corridor from Baker County to Holmes County in North Florida, with Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) across the rest of the western Panhandle and southward across the southern portions of the Suwannee River Valley. Some slight reduction in the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was seen over coastal West-Central Florida of northern Hillsborough and Pinellas County where some localized rainfall totals of 4-6 inches was observed in the past week. However, just south of that, expansion of the Severe Drought (level 2 of 4) was added over southern Sarasota and coastal Charlotte Counties where rainfall largely missed. A general couple of tenths of rain were observed over South Florida in the past week, not enough to curb the developing drought. Expansion of the Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was added to this week’s outlook across much of interior South Florida, with abnormally dry (emerging drought) conditions expanding to the Southeast Florida coastline. Although shorter-term rainfall departures are above normal due to the recent rainfall, portions of North Florida are still under a long-term rainfall deficit (60-90 days) and drought conditions will persist. Additionally, rainfall chances will remain very low over the next week, or longer, which may lead to a resumption of deteriorating drought conditions.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 402 (+3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 12 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today. An upper-level disturbance will bring scattered showers and a few embedded thunderstorms to South Florida late today and overnight. A few locally heavy downpours cannot be ruled out in any of the heavier activity. Rainfall totals will remain generally below 0.5”, however a few localized totals upwards of 1-1.5” cannot be ruled out if any areas receive repeated rounds of heavy downpours.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.60 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.14 feet below normal for this time of year.
