Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, February 9, 2026
...Cool and Foggy Start for The State this Morning...Another Pleasant Day Filled With Sunshine and Warm Temperatures...Lingering Dry Air Bringing Relative Humidity Values Near or Below Critical Thresholds Across Northeast Florida & Interior Peninsula - Elevated Wildfire Threat...Cool, Calm and Dry Conditions Overnight...Fog Development Likely Overnight and Early Tuesday Morning - Dense Fog Possible...Wildfire Smoke and Fog to Reduce Visibilities - Use Caution When Driving...Moderate Risk for Rip Currents Returns to the Panhandle; Lingering Swells and Onshore Winds Continue for the East Coast Creating a High Rip Current Risk...
Updated at 9:47 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Coastal Flooding |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Northeast FL & Interior Peninsula Statewide
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Suwannee Valley North & West Florida Statewide |
East-Central & Southeast Florida North Florida West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Areas of patchy to locally dense fog this morning will continue to gradually lift and dissipate throughout the morning. After a cool start, temperatures will warm up nicely leading to pleasant conditions courtesy of high pressure sitting over the state. Plenty of sunshine and a near-zero chance of rain can be expected across the state today as a result of those high pressure conditions. While low level moisture begins to slowly increase from the weekend, pockets of near to below critical relative humidity values (25-35%) can be expected across Northeast Florida and extending into the interior Peninsula this afternoon. The ongoing drought and recent very dry couple of days will contribute to an elevated wildfire risk.
High temperatures will return to the upper 60s to upper 70s across the state this afternoon.
Calm and dry conditions will persist into the overnight hours across the state as high pressure remains locked in place. Low-level moisture moving onshore and inland from the coastal waters, along with calm winds will allow for fog development overnight and into Tuesday morning. Instances of dense fog, especially throughout the Suwannee Valley, will be possible. Foggy conditions combined with ongoing smoke from wildfires will further reduce visibilities, and caution should be advised during the morning commute.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 30s to middle 40s across North Florida, middle 40s to lower 50s across Central Florida and 50s to near 60-degrees across South Florida.
Rip Currents: Lighter winds and declining ocean swells will allow Panhandle beaches to return to a moderate risk. Onshore winds persisting along the East Coast will continue to create a moderate to high risk for rip currents. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Long-period ocean swells along the East Coast continue to decline leading to wave heights of 3-5’. Calm marine conditions along the Panhandle and Gulf Coast will create wave heights of 1-2’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in Okaloosa County, background to low concentrations in Bay County, and background to very low concentrations in Gulf County. Along the Florida East Coast, red tide was observed at very low concentrations from Palm Beach County. It was not observed in Southwest Florida over the past week (valid 2/6/2026).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: A near-zero chance of rain continues across the state courtesy of high pressure conditions. Relative humidity values will gradually recover over the next couple of days, but dry air still lingers throughout the Big Bend and the interior peninsula. Values will fall near or at critical thresholds this afternoon (25-35%) from those areas, and the ongoing drought and recent very dry conditions will create those elevated wildfire conditions. Burn bans have extended into Southwest Florida for Collier, Hendry and Glades counties. The Buggy Fire in South Florida may continue to bring reduced visibilities and hazy skies across the region today. Foggy conditions can be expected to develop early in the morning hours across the state, with dense fog conditions possible. Fog development with ongoing wildfire smoke will create further reduced visibilities and Super Fog, and caution should be advised.According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 120 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 9,704 acres.
Drought (2/5/26): Over the past 10 days, a few cold fronts have brought scattered showers to portions of the state with some light rainfall. However, rainfall totals have remained very meager, at best, and have been unable to truly alleviate the ongoing drought conditions. As such, we have seen further deterioration of drought across much of the state in this week’s Drought Monitor outlook. Across North Florida, rainfall totals of 1-2” were found across the western Panhandle, yet these totals were still not enough to bring much drought relief. The I-10 corridor also saw some light rain, with totals around 0.5-0.75”. However, very dry conditions filtered into the state in the wake of the frontal passages which quickly dried out any soils and grounds. This has resulted in worsening drought and expansion of the extreme drought (level 3 of 4) across Madison, Hamilton, Columbia, and Suwannee counties. This extreme drought remains in place across much of the Suwannee River Valley, Nature Coast, and northern Big Bend. A severe drought (level 2 of 4) occupies much of the rest of North Florida, the exception being the far western Panhandle where a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) is still in place. 60-day rainfall departures are still well below normal across all this region, and in some places upwards of 7” below normal. Worsening drought was also found across Central and South Florida in the past week. New areas of extreme drought (level 3 of 4) have been added to portions of coastal West-Central Florida in Manatee, Sarasota, Hardee, DeSoto, and Highlands counties, as well as interior mainland Monroe County in South Florida. The drought in this portion of the state has now begun to become a longer-term concern, with 3-month rainfall departures nearly 4-6” across all Central and South Florida. Additional expansion of the severe drought (level 2 of 4) was added across coastal Indian River and Brevard counties along the East Coast. Across the entire state, streamflows are running well below normal in many rivers, streams, and creeks. Additionally, soil moisture levels are at extremely low levels. Some light rainfall with a few frontal passages are possible this week and next week, however there does not appear to be any real relief coming from the drought. As of this outlook, over 95% of the state is under a moderate drought (level 1 of 4) or worse.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 480 (+2) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 33 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.65 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.96 feet below normal for this time of year.
