Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Saturday, November 29, 2025
...Another Cool Start for North Florida this Morning...Plenty of Sunshine Today Across the State...Warming Conditions Expected...Breezy Winds Continue for Much of Northeast Florida and Extending Through Peninsula to Keys...Locally Elevated Wildfire Danger Continues Across North Florida...Chance for Brief Showers Across Alligator Alley and Keys Later Today...Patchy Fog Possible Tonight and Early Sunday Morning for Suwanee Valley...Dangerous Ocean Swells Extend Along Much Atlantic Coast and Keys; High Surf Advisory and High Rip Current Risk...
Updated at 8:44 AM EST
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Fog (Overnight) |
Coastal Flooding |
Rip Currents |
|
North Florida West-Central FL |
Suwannee River Valley |
East Coast Panhandle & Southwest FL West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A pleasant day can be expected for the Sunshine State as conditions begin to warm up from the last couple of days. Plenty of sunshine can be expected with dry conditions statewide, with a chance for isolated showers returning to the southernmost Peninsula and Keys later this afternoon (15-30% chance of rain). Winds will be shifting out of the east to southeast today helping to bring moisture back northward and allow for relative humidity values to recover, especially for northern Florida. The northwestern Panhandle may still see relative humidity values dip near critical thresholds this afternoon (25-35%). Regardless, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions will persist across North Florida given the worsening drought conditions. Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will develop throughout the day extending from the Suwannee Valley and Northeast Florida and southward through the Keys. Stronger wind gusts of 25-30 mph will develop across South Florida and the Keys this afternoon.
High temperatures will return to the 60s across North Florida, lower to middle 70s across Central Florida and upper 70s to lower 80s across South Florida and the Keys this afternoon.
As moisture continues to recover and flow northward, a chance for isolated showers will be possible overnight and into early Sunday morning along the coastlines as the next frontal system approaches, but the greatest chances will remain along South Florida and the Keys (15-35% chance of rain). Calmer winds and enough moisture will give way to patchy fog developing early Sunday morning throughout the Suwannee River Valley.
Low temperatures will fall into the upper 40s to middle 50s across North Florida, middle 50s to lower 60s across Central Florida and upper 60s to lower 70s across South Florida.
Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 7 days in the Atlantic basin.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: A high risk for rip currents will extend along the entire Florida East Coast today. A moderate risk returns to the Panhandle and Southwest Florida. All other beaches will see a low risk. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Atlantic Coast beaches, including Atlantic-facing Key beaches, will see wave heights of 4-7’ this afternoon. Larger waves of 8-9’ will develop along Southeast Florida beaches and the Atlantic-Key beaches, and a High Surf Advisory is in effect for through Sunday evening. Panhandle and West Coast beaches will see wave heights increase to 2-4’ by the later afternoon for all beaches today.
Red Tide was observed at background to medium concentrations along Bay and Gulf counties along the coastlines. Low concentrations were observed offshore from Franklin county. Background conditions will were observed along coastal Pinellas and Lee County.
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Relative humidity values across the state will recover from the dry spell the last day or so, especially for over northern Florida. Isolated portions of the northwestern Panhandle could see relative humidity values dip near critical thresholds (25-35%) with lingering dry air. Regardless, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions will continue across North Florida given the worsening and expanding drought conditions north of the I-10 corridor. Breezy wind gusts of 15-20 mph will continue today from the Suwannee Valley and southward through the Keys, with stronger wind gusts of 25-30 mph expected across South Florida and the Keys by the late afternoon hours. Calm conditions overnight may allow for patchy fog to develop early Sunday morning within the Suwannee River Valley. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 70 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 589 acres.
Drought:The past week was almost entirely dry across the entire Sunshine State as temperatures warmed to above seasonable levels. As such, no improvements were made to this week’s Drought Monitor and further degradation was seen. Across South Florida, Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was introduced across interior Collier, Broward, and Miami-Dade counties with expansion of Abnormally Dry (emerging drought) towards the Southeast coastline. Moderate Drought (level 1 of 4) was also introduced across Lee, Charlotte, Hendry, and Glades county, as well as around Lake Okeechobee where rainfall departures from the past month have neared 2-3 inches. Moderate Drought remains in place across much of West-Central Florida with further expansion into Polk county and northward along the entire Nature Coast. Rainfall departures from the past 60 days have grown to 4-6 inches across West-Central Florida. Across North Florida, Severe (level 2 of 4) to Extreme (level 3 of 4) have remained in place, with expansion southeastward of the Extreme Drought into much of Suwannee, Columbia, and western Baker County. Severe Drought was also added to much of the Forgotten Coast along Taylor and Dixie counties. An Exceptional Drought (level 4 of 4) was introduced to northern Gadsden, Leon, and Jefferson counties where streamflows have reached very low levels, vegetation has become very dry, and agricultural impacts have worsened. This is the first Exceptional Drought seen in the state of Florida since February 2012. Long-term rainfall departures continue to decline across the Panhandle, and significant rainfall is not expected over the next week as temperatures remain above seasonable levels. As such, worsening drought conditions are expected over the next week across much of the state.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 523 (+/-0) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 44 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger). Calhoun and Leon counties both have KBDI values over 700.
Flash Flooding: Flash flooding is not expected across Florida.
Riverine Flooding: Water levels at the headwaters of the St. Johns above Lake Harney remain at Action Stage (bank-full) this morning, though continue to slowly discharge. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 13.65 feet, which is within the operational band and is 1.21 feet below normal for this time of year.
