Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Monday, June 23, 2025
...Typical Summertime Day Expected for the Sunshine State...Slightly Drier Air Leading to More Isolated to Scattered Shower and Thunderstorm Activity; Greatest Chance Along West and South Florida...A Few Thunderstorms Become Strong to Severe This Afternoon...Gusty Winds, Frequent Lightning, and Heavy Downpours Likely...Nuisance Flooding and Ponding Water Possible...Warm and Humid Conditions Expected Statewide, with Triple Digit Heat Index Values Throught Most of State...Building Danger Heat Expected Over Next Few Days...High Risk for Rip Currents Develops Along Southeast Florida Beaches...Moderate Risk of Rip Currents for Florida Panhandle and East Florida Beaches...NHC Outlooking High (70%) Chance for Development of Invest 90L Over Central Subtropical Atlantic; Brief Tropical Depression Possible Later Today; No Threat to Florida...
Updated at 9:56 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
|
No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Flash Flooding |
Excessive Heat |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
|
Locally Southwest FL West & South Florida Northeast & East-Central |
Locally Iso. Statewide |
Locally Iso. West Florida |
Locally West Florida East Florida |
Southeast Florida Florida Panhandle & East Florida Northwest Florida & West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
Drier air will filter into the state courtesy of strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more isolated to scattered. The Atlantic sea breeze will push further inland compared to the Gulf sea breeze, keeping shower and thunderstorm activity more concentrated across West and South Florida this afternoon and evening (40-70% chance of rain). Embedded strong to severe thunderstorms may be possible during the peak heating hours of the day, and will be capable of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds and locally heavy downpours. Instances of ponding of water and nuisance flooding may be possible within heavier downpours or slow-moving thunderstorms. Slightly drier conditions along Northeast and East-Central Florida will lead to a lower chance for activity, but showers and thunderstorms that develop along the coastline will move inland with the sea breeze.
Hot conditions will continue to build each day, and high temperatures will reach the upper 80s to middle 90s this afternoon. Portions of the Panhandle could see high temperatures approach the upper 90s this afternoon. Feels-like temperatures will continue to reach the upper 90s along East Florida with the help of onshore winds. The rest of the state will see feels-like temperatures in the triple digits (100-106-degrees), with portions of the Panhandle possibly reaching Heat Advisory criteria briefly by the early to mid-afternoon hours.
Shower and thunderstorm activity will continue through the evening hours across the state before shifting offshore and dissipating. Drier conditions overnight should help to keep shower or thunderstorm activity limited to the coastal waters, especially along the Atlantic Coast where the Gulf Stream is (15-30% chance of rain).
Low temperatures will continue to fall into the middle to upper 70s to lower 80s throughout the state overnight.
Central Subtropical Atlantic (Invest 90L): Satellite images indicate that disorganized showers and thunderstorms are displaced to the east of an area of low pressure located about 600 miles east of Bermuda. Environment conditions are still marginally favorable for further development, and an increase in thunderstorm activity could result in the formation of a short-lived tropical depression later today. By Tuesday, this system is expected to encounter less favorable environmental conditions, ending its opportunity for development. The system is forecast to move northeastward at 10 mph, remaining over the open central Atlantic. This system poses no threat to Florida.
*Formation chance through 48 hours…high…70%.
*Formation chance through 7 days…high…70%.
For the latest on the tropics, please visit the National Hurricane Center (NHC) at www.hurricanes.gov.
Rip Currents: Southeast Florida beaches will see an increased risk for rip currents today, while the rest of the East Coast can expect a moderate risk. Panhandle beaches will also continue to see a moderate risk for rip currents. A low risk can be expected for the West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Wave heights of 1-2’ can be expected along all Florida beaches today. Isolated breaking waves upwards of 3’ may develop along the Treasure Coast throughout the day
with Atlantic-facing Key beaches seeing waves upwards of 4’.
Red Tide has not been observed above background concentrations along any Florida coastline over the past week (valid 6/20).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding today.
Fire Weather: Daily scattered showers and thunderstorms can be expected to develop throughout the peak heating hours of the day across the Sunshine State. Relative humidity values will continue to remain well above critical thresholds, with even better values recovering overnight. Thunderstorms will be capable of producing frequent lightning and erratic winds that ignite or further spread wildfires. Locally patchy fog cannot be ruled out during the early morning hours. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 56 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 1,730 acres.
Drought: Beneficial rain and thunderstorm activity once again over the past week as resulted in further drought relief for the Sunshine State. Extreme drought (level 3 of 4) has been eliminated on the recent Drought Monitor update (6/19); however, pockets of severe drought (level 2 of 4) persisted across the Florida Peninsula with even a slight expansion of moderate drought (level 1 of 4) along the Florida East Coast where recent rainfall has been light and sporadic in nature. Rainfall departures have improved significantly, even within the longer-range (60 to 90-day rainfall); rainfall deficits of 3-5” below normal for this time of year continue for portions of the Nature and East Florida coastlines.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 278 (+13) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 2 Florida counties (Indian River and Miami-Dade) with an average KBDI over 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: Nuisance flooding and ponding of water will be possible with any heavier downpours associated with showers and thunderstorms today. The slow-moving nature of this activity may lead to multiple rounds or an extended period of locally heavy rainfall rates over the same location; an earlier onset to ponding water and flooding can be expected to usual trouble spots of urban and low-lying/poor drainage areas. Widespread rainfall totals of 1-2” is forecast with today’s shower and thunderstorm activity; however, totals reaching 2-3” cannot be ruled out.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across the state. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 10.99 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.25 feet below normal for this time of year.
