Current Weather Outlook

Rip Currents: Breezy to windy conditions and high surf will bring a moderate to high risk for rip currents to all East Coast and Panhandle beaches today. A low risk is expected for all West Coast beaches. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.

Marine Hazards: The sea state will begin to diminish today along the East Coast, though will still remain elevated with surf of 6-8’ expected from the First Coast to Southeast Florida. High Surf Advisories remain in effect for all beaches from Nassau County to Palm Beach County. Waves near 2-4’ can be expected for all Panhandle beaches, with surf around 1-2’ along the West Coast.

Red Tide was observed at background concentrations offshore Monroe County (valid 4/3/26).

Coastal Flooding: A Coastal Flood Statement is in effect for the Upper Florida Keys through this afternoon for minor saltwater flooding of low elevation streets and lots near and during times of high tide.

Fire Weather: A drier airmass will finally begin to settle throughout the state as high pressure noses into the local area. A few isolated showers may move onshore along the Atlantic coast this afternoon, otherwise a mostly sunny and dry day is on tap throughout the Sunshine State. Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds throughout the Peninsula, though will reach near critical thresholds (30-40%) across the Panhandle and Big Bend. Given the ongoing extreme to exceptional drought (level 3-4 of 4), elevated wildfire conditions can be expected today, especially given breezier winds with gusts upwards of 20 mph possible. Stronger winds will reside across the Peninsula today, with gusts of 20-30 mph expected. Areas of patchy fog may develop tonight across Northeast Florida, some of which could become locally dense. Areas of fog may further reduce visibilities in areas experiencing active wildfire smoke. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 56 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 5,655 acres.

Drought (4/9/26): Although it was a rather wet start to the week across much of the Florida Peninsula, very little improvements were introduced on this week’s Drought Monitor update. A general 1-3” of rainfall fell throughout Central and South Florida since last update, with some localized areas picking up 5-8” of rainfall, especially along the immediate East Coast. These rainfall totals have improved some of the short-term drought indicators, such as KBDI and 30-60 day rainfall departures, though were not enough to provide real relief to the long-term drought and seriously dry soil moisture conditions. An extreme drought (level 3 of 4) remains in place throughout much of South Florida, the exception being the immediate Southeast coastline where a general moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) are found. There were no additional changes throughout Central Florida where a moderate (level 1 of 4) to severe drought (level 2 of 4) remains along the I-4 corridor and through the Orlando metropolitan area and extreme drought (level 3 of 4) elsewhere. Throughout North Florida, exceptional drought (level 4 of 4) expanded to include the remainder of the Big Bend region and much of the Suwannee River Valley. Although there were some light rain totals throughout North Florida, it was only in very localized pockets that exceeded 2”+. Rainfall departures over the past 90 to 120 days (3-4 months) or longer are really driving the persistent drought throughout North Florida. In fact, since September 1 (8 months ago), Tallahassee has found itself in a rainfall deficit nearly 20 inches below normal! About 11 inches of rain has been tallied up since Sept 1 2025 in Tallahassee, which is 5 inches below the previous record over a similar stretch. Record low streamflows and bone dry soils/grounds have resulted in the additional exceptional drought expansion this week. Looking ahead, unfortunately a very dry and warm stretch of weather is expected through at least the next week as high pressure settles overhead and allows for mostly sunny skies. Additional drought expansion is expected throughout North Florida on next week’s update, though there could be some drought reduction throughout Central and South Florida given lots of rainfall since the Tuesday cutoff time for this week’s update.

The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 414 (-17) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 15 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).   

Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding today across Florida. Light showers may push onshore along the Atlantic coast today, though will be very brief in nature. Rainfall totals will remain negligible for most locations.

Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.

Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.12 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.02 feet below normal for this time of year.