Current Weather Outlook
Statewide weather outlook from Florida Division of Emergency Management Meteorology
Tuesday, March 31, 2026
...Isolated to Widely Scattered Showers Statewide Today... Greatest Chance of Rain Across the Northern Panhandle this Afternoon... A Locally Heavy Downpour or a Few Lightning Strikes Cannot be Ruled Out... Breezy Conditions Persist Along the I-95 Corridor and South Florida... Sensitive to Locally Elevated Wildfire Conditions Remain Statewide... Moderate to High Risk for Rip Currents for all Panhandle and East Coast Beaches...Surf Remains Elevated for East Coast Beaches Near 4-6'...
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Updated at 8:54 AM EDT
Today's Threats:
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No Threat |
Low Threat |
Medium Threat |
High Threat |
|
Lightning |
Tornado |
Damaging Wind/Hail |
Wildfire |
Freeze (Overnight) |
Flash Flooding |
Fog (Overnight) |
Rip Currents |
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Locally Panhandle & Southwest FL |
Locally Northeast FL Statewide |
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Western Panhandle & Northeast FL West-Central FL |
East Coast Panhandle West Coast |
Weather Summary for the Next 24 Hours:
A near rinse and repeat of yesterday is expected today as moist south and east flow continues around an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic promoting additional spotty chances for showers and thunderstorms across much of the state. A few onshore moving showers are ongoing this morning across Southeast Florida, and coverage will slightly increase this afternoon across the Peninsula along the east coast sea breeze as it pushes inland (15-30% chance of rain). The greatest chance of rain today, however, is across the northern Panhandle where increasing moisture and the sea breeze will help to initiate activity (35-50% chance of rain). Although there is no organized risk for severe weather, some of this activity could be accompanied by an occasional lightning strike or two and locally heavy downpour. Most activity throughout the state will diminish shortly after sunset, though a lingering shower or two cannot be ruled out across Southeast Florida (15-20% chance of rain). The easterly flow today will be accompanied by breezy wind gusts upwards of 20 mph along the I-95 corridor with locally higher gusts upwards of 25 mph across Southeast Florida. Relative humidities will remain above critical thresholds today, though ongoing drought will keep locally sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions in place.
High temperatures will reach the middle 70s to middle 80s throughout much of the state this afternoon. Lows will reach the upper 50s to middle 60s throughout North Florida and middle 60s to lower 70s in Central and South Florida. With plentiful moisture sticking around overnight, areas of fog and low clouds are possible, especially throughout North and West-Central Florida. The greatest chances for locally dense fog will be across the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida.
Rip Currents: Breezy conditions will maintain elevated surf and dangerous swimming conditions to many Florida coastlines. A moderate to high risk of rip currents can be expected for all Florida Panhandle and East Coast beaches, with low risk conditions residing along the Florida West Coast. For the latest Rip Current Outlook, visit www.weather.gov/beach.
Marine Hazards: Marine conditions will continue slowly subsiding along the Florida East Coast today, with surf returning to 4-6’ for most beaches. A few waves upwards of 7’ cannot be ruled out for Treasure Coast beaches. Florida Panhandle beaches can expect waves near 2-3’ this afternoon, with West Coast beaches around 1’.
Red Tide was observed at background concentrations in and offshore Okaloosa, Walton, Bay, and Gulf counties. It was also observed at very low concentrations in Brevard County (valid 3/27/26).
Coastal Flooding: There is no risk for coastal flooding across Florida today.
Fire Weather: Moist onshore flow around an area of high pressure over the western Atlantic will continue to bring plentiful low-level moisture throughout the state, keeping relative humidities above critical thresholds. However, sensitive to elevated wildfire conditions continue statewide, courtesy of breezy easterly winds and ongoing severe to extreme drought. Wind speeds of 10-20 mph look to develop through the day throughout the Florida Peninsula, with wind gusts of 20-25 mph likely along the immediate coast. Locally higher wind gusts reaching upwards of 30 mph will be possible across Southeast Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible throughout the state this afternoon; thunderstorms may be capable of producing lightning strikes and gusty winds which may lead to new ignitions or erratic spread, respectively. Tonight, areas of patchy to locally dense fog are possible throughout the western Panhandle and Northeast Florida. Fog may significantly reduce visibilities in the vicinity of active wildfires. According to the Florida Forest Service, there are 64 active wildfires across the state burning approximately 4,030 acres.
Drought (3/26/26): Very little in the way of any beneficial or meaningful rainfall was observed over the past week across the state with status quo drought conditions continuing. The heaviest rainfall over the past week was observed along the immediate Southeast Florida coastline and portions of East-Central Florida with totals upwards of 1-3”. However, these totals were very localized with many locations seeing little to no rain. Widespread severe (level 2 of 4) to extreme drought (level 3 of 4) continues nearly statewide, with the largest change occurring across the Big Bend region. Exceptional (level 4 of 4) drought has been expanded across much of the I-10 corridor across the Big Bend and into the eastern Panhandle throughout northern Calhoun, Liberty, Gadsden, northern Leon, Jefferson, Madison, Hamilton, Suwannee, Gilchrist, Columbia, and Union counties. Record low streamflows and precipitation deficits of 5-8” persist. Soil moisture levels deep into the ground have also worsened and water management districts statewide remain under some water shortage advisory or warning. Looking ahead, a widespread drenching rainfall is not expected over the next week. Mostly dry conditions will continue throughout North Florida where the afternoon sea breezes will have less of an influence. Throughout the Peninsula, daily shower or thunderstorm activity may return starting this weekend, though activity will be scattered in coverage and drought conditions are not expected to improve.
The Keetch-Byram Drought Index average for Florida is 477 (-3) on a scale from 0 (very wet) to 800 (very dry). There are 31 Florida counties that have an average KBDI above 500 (drought/increased fire danger).
Flash Flooding: There is no organized risk for flash flooding across Florida today. Isolated to widely scattered showers and embedded thunderstorms will develop this afternoon throughout the state, some of which could be locally heavy and capable of producing a quick 1-2” of rainfall. Areas of ponding of water cannot be ruled out, especially in urban and low-lying/poor drainage locations.
Riverine Flooding: There are no riverine concerns across Florida. For more information, visit the River Forecast Center.
Lake Okeechobee’s average elevation is 12.02 feet, which is within the operational band and is 2.30 feet below normal for this time of year.
